Freddy Hutter, data analyst







Freddy Hutter, data analyst



thanx

I've been sharing updates of my "Covid Fatalities Projections" since April 2020 and updates of my "Yukon Protocol" since Aug/2009.  The latter provides policymakers & the public with my calculations of each nation's obligation to meet their commitment to the UN's Green Climate Fund.  As re-affirmed at COP26-Glasgow-2021, the world's 114 least mature economies may draw upon the Fund to build green infrastructure.  Below is a list of the top 100 cumulative co2 emitters - calculated back to Year 1750 - and their annual assessments.

TRENDLines Research began publishing real estate stats in 1989 and conducted political polling & election projections in several nations shortly thereafter.  In the coming months I hope to publish a variety of my other macro-economic models:  the TRENDLines Recession Indicator (USA, Canada & China), historic Realty Bubbles (USA, Canada, UK & Australia), Peak Oil projection, Gasoline & Oil Price Components, projected Sea Level by Year 2100 & projected co2 ppm by Year 2100.


TRENDLines Research

charts@trendlines.ca

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twitter.com/TrendlinesDotCa

112 Deep Bay Marina
Box 191 Bowser BC Canada V0R1G0
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from  canada, eh!
TRENDLines Research  ...   providing macro-economic charts & guidance for legislators, policymakers, investors, stakeholders & the public
long-term multi-disciplinary perspectives by Freddy Hutter since 1989 - TRENDLines Research removes the noise from economic & science data to reveal the underlying trends

~

TRENDLines Research's
Covid Future Fatalities Projections

covid 2023May
new
"future deaths" chart also viewable at:  www.twitter.com/TrendlinesDotCa
& www.facebook.com/TRENDLinesResearch

 

next monthly chart update:  June 6th 2023

OMICRON'S SUB-VARIANTS' GLOBAL WAVE HERE 'TIL JUNE 2023!

PROJECTED FUTURE FATALITIES:  44,000 WORLDWIDE
incl:  USA 10,600 & UK 16,300 & CANADA 1,150 (incl 220 ONTARIO & 620 BC VICTIMS)

May 8th 2023 - Based on novel coronavirus's ever-changing mortality rate in recent weeks, today's update of TRENDLines Research's Covid-19 fatalities model projects an ultimate 2020-2023 death count of 6.97 million worldwide (present toll 6.92 million + 44,000 future) incl 1,134,000 in the USA (1,124,000 toll + 10,600 future);  241,400 in the UK (225,100 toll + 16,300 future) & 53,190 in Canada (52,040 toll + 1,150 future) incl 15,280 in Ontario (15,060 toll + 220 future) & 6,140 in BC (5,520 toll + 620 future) - based on current relaxed policymaker mitigation of the Omicron BA2/4/5, BQ1 &  XBB1 sub-variants.

Whereas previous lethal coronavirus events (MERS & SARS) were relatively short-lived due to aggressive contact tracing, misguided policymaker mitigation decisions allowed Covid-19 to become a multi-wave pandemic with a projected 43 month start-to-end duration (assuming no new variants-of-concern).

This humankind disaster stems from most jurisdictions: (a) adopting the horrific Trump strategy of prematurely lifting restrictions (thrice or more);  (b) reluctance to require/maintain shelter-in-place;  (c) an over-reliance on vaccination programs;  (d) failure to assist vaccination in developing nations;  (e) identifiable leadership complicity in anti-mandate campaigns (eg masks, testing, social distancing & vaccinations); & (f) virtually abandoning vigilant testing & contact tracing convention post Delta.

note:  text below reflects June 30 2022 Report
- balance of text will updated later this month!
- see archive of past projection in table below

These failures to isolate the original virus led to successive surges of same and provided opportunities for spawning Alpha, Beta, Delta & Omicron (incl BA2/4/5) variants-of-concern to flourish.  Modelling reveals this event should have been only a mere six-month episode with 1.1 million fatalities.  Instead, policymaker hubris may have caused 5.3 million unnecessary victims worldwide.  These surplus deaths include 870K in USA, 149K in UK & 29K in Canada (incl 10K in Ontario & 2,900 in BC).

My Post-Peak Linearization Model indicated prudent mitigation efforts had essentially suppressed Covid's first surge by mid-2020 in the UK & Canada (incl Ontario & BC.  Unfortunately, those early lock-down & shelter-in-place sacrifices proved to be in vain.  Premature relaxation of Orders and restrictions in all four jurisdictions gave rise to new surges upon each attempt at re-opening.  Similarly, just as the USA & Global models were to signal suppression in July 2021, the Delta wave overwhelmed the suppression progress.

In much of the world, similar policymaker mismanagement resulted in a string of five waves (defined as seasonal outbreaks or material strain mutations):  Covid19 original strain, Alpha/Beta, Delta, Omicron & its BA2/4/5 sub-variants and surges within those waves.

As a "post-peak" model, no projections were generated during the strong Delta & Omicron episodes.  Surges in cases, hospitalizations, ICU and deaths since mid 2021 reigned primarily in vax-hesitant regions.  Excepting developing nations lacking vaccination access, one might surmise there was a lot of Darwin's natural selection at work - and fortunately - victims were/are mostly right-wing qAnons.

Originally, consensus held natural & community (vaccinated) herd immunity would kick in upon regions attaining 67% infection and/or jabs.  But failure to suppress the original strain and the subsequent spawning of variants-of-concern, broad-based vaccine hesitancy & the inability of vaccines to prevent break-thru cases upon waning immunity appear to have killed off any hope of illusive herd immunity.

Current model runs indicate Omicron's sub-variants will transition to endemic status (health sector no longer overwhelmed) over the coming weeks and months.  In early June 2022, the UK became the first of our six tracked jurisdictions to attain endemicity.  Covid related deaths should wind down by late July in the UK;  by September in Ontario;  October Canada-wide;  March 2023 in BC; & June 2023 in the USA.  However, with 33% of the globe still lacking even a first jab, it is highly probable new variants-of-concern will arise this Autumn.

See website table for archive of all my projections since April 2020.  The model's composite chart, underlying stats & analyst commentary (by Freddy Hutter) are updated monthly at:

www.trendlines.ca  & chart only at  www.facebook.com/TRENDLinesResearch

 & www.twitter.com/TRENDLinesDotCa

WORLDWIDE analysis
Based on existing lax policymaker mitigation and mortality trends in recent weeks, the TRENDLines Post-Peak Linearization Model projects Omicron's sub-variants (BA2/4/5) will claim yet another 98,000 fatalities across the globe as the present wave expires in February 2023.  Added to the current toll (6.322 million), an ultimate 6.420 million victims are projected over 2020-2023.  Today's daily-deaths rate (1,400) is down 90% from its January 2021 record high (14,400).  Today 63% of the world's population have at least one jab.  Future variants-of-concern may inflate final numbers.

Troubling as today's ultimate projection may be, the alternative natural herd immunity strategy promoted by conspirators would have cost 102 million lives (7.6 billion x 67% x 2.0% Alpha/Beta case fatality rate) and with no guarantee of permanent immunity.

The 10 nations with the highest daily-deaths rate today:  USA (260), Brazil, Taiwan, UK, Russia, Australia, France, India, Chile & Canada.

The model reveals 5.2 million souls (of 6.4 mil total) will have perished unnecessarily due to misguided policymaker decisions to prematurely re-open.

41% of worldwide victims resided in long-term care facilities.

Worldwide
mortality rate:  0.08% or 813 deaths/million population

USA analysis
The model similarly projects Omicron's sub-variants (BA2/4/5) will claim yet another 24,400 fatalities across America as the present wave expires in June 2023 -- based on existing policymaker mitigation.  Added to the current toll (1,025,900), an ultimate 1,050,300 victims are projected over 2020-2023.  Future variants-of-concern may inflate final numbers.

Today's daily-deaths rate (260) is 93% below its Jan/2021 record high (3,500).  The States with the most daily-deaths today are Florida (60), California, Georgia, Pennsylvania, New York & Texas.

Troubling as today's ultimate projection may be, the absurd natural herd immunity policy promoted by the Trump White House would have cost 3.9 million American lives (327 million x 67% x 1.8% Alpha/Beta case fatality rate) with no guarantee of permanent immunity.

During a White House Rose Garden virtual town hall on March 25th 2020, the former President proposed packing the nation's churches on Easter and return to work the following day.  It was on this precise day America was infected with "the TrumpVirus".  On that day the USA had only 4% of global Covid deaths - apropos considering the nation has 4% of the world's population.

It marked the day everything changed.  For context of Trump's containment failure, the USA had over half of worldwide cases & deaths in 2020.  Twenty-six months later, the USA still has 16% of world's cumulative Covid cases, 16% of the today's global "active" cases & 16% of worldwide body bags.  The uncontained TrumpVirus resulted in GDP crashing at a historic -31% pace in 20Q2.  75 million workers initiated unemployment claims due to the pandemic during his term.

The President caused a TrumpVirus resurgence only for the purpose of salvaging his legacy.  He desperately wanted to avoid voters going to the polls realizing The Donald (alone) was at fault for April 2020's 22% U-6 Unemployment Rate & plunging the U.S. economy into its deepest crash (-31% GDP) ever - including the Great Depression.

The model reveals reveals 870,000 souls (of 1,050,000 total) will have perished unnecessarily due to misguided policymaker decisions to prematurely re-open.

Long-term care residents comprise 1% of the USA population but were 36% of Covid19 victims - as high as 73% in some States.  81% of fatalities were over the age of 64 and 95% were over 49.

USA's mortality rate:  0.30% or 3,009 deaths/million -- 17th worst in world - behind Peru (0.66%), Bulgaria, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Hungary, Georgia, North Macedonia, Croatia, Czechia, Slovakia, Romania, Moldova, Lithuania, Brazil, Slovenia, Poland & Chile.

UK analysis
The model projects Omicron's sub-variants (BA2/4/5) will claim yet another 680 fatalities across the UK as the present wave expires in late July -- based on existing lax policymaker mitigation.  Added to the current toll (199,420), an ultimate 200,100 victims are projected over 2020-2022.  Future variants-of-concern may inflate final numbers.

The UK's wave#1 was initially suppressed back on Aug 2nd 2020 - when new daily cases sunk below 750 and daily deaths were down to single digits.  The model deemed wave#1 suppressed  a second time (late May 2021) when once again daily-deaths hit single digits.  Today's daily-deaths rate (29) is 98% below its Jan/2021 record high (1,250).

Troubling as today's ultimate projection may be, the alternative natural herd immunity strategy promoted by conspirators would have cost 757,000 UK lives (66 million x 67% x 1.7% Alpha/Beta case mortality rate) with no guarantee of permanent immunity.

The model reveals 149K souls (of 200,100 total) will have perished unnecessarily due to misguided policymaker decisions to prematurely re-open.

The UK comprises only 1% of global population but has 3% of the Covid19 deaths (down from 11% in 2020) and 4% of today's world "active" cases.

37% of victims lived in long-term care homes.

UK's mortality rate:  0.26% or 2,555 deaths/million (28th worst in world)

CANADA analysis
The model projects Omicron's BA2/4/5 sub-variants will claim yet another 730 fatalities across Canada as the present wave expires in October -- based on existing lax policymaker mitigation.  Added to the current toll (41,570), an ultimate 42,300 victims are projected over 2020-2022.  Future variants-of-concern may inflate final numbers.

The model reveals Canada's wave#1 was initially suppressed on Aug 7th 2020 - when new daily cases sunk below 350 and daily deaths were down to single digits.  Today's daily-deaths rate (20) is 89% below its May 2020 record high (176).

Troubling as today's ultimate projection may be, the alternative natural herd immunity strategy promoted by conspirators would have cost 421,000 Canadian lives (37 million x 67% x 1.7% Alpha/Beta case fatality rate) with no guarantee of permanent immunity.

The model reveals 29K souls (of 42,300 total) will have perished unnecessarily due to misguided policymaker decisions to prematurely re-open.

Canadian media (CTV & CBC) annually expose nursing home neglect and under-staffing, so there's no surprise this sector saw the most confirmed cases.  69% of Covid19 victims resided or worked in long-term facilities.  88% of fatalities were over the age of 69.

Canada's mortality rate:  0.10% or 1,021 deaths/million

ONTARIO analysis
The
model projects Omicron's BA2/4/5 sub-variants will claim yet another 81 fatalities across Ontario as the present wave expires in September -- based on existing lax policymaker mitigation.  Added to the current toll (11,873), an ultimate 11,954 victims are projected over 2020-2022.  Future variants-of-concern may inflate final numbers.

It reveals Ontario's wave#1 was initially suppressed on July 7th 2020 - when new daily cases sunk below 150 and the Province reported its third consecutive fatality-free day.  Today's daily-deaths rate (3) is 96% below its record highs (62) in May 2020.

Troubling as today's ultimate projection may be, the alternative natural herd immunity strategy promoted by conspirators would have cost 171,000 Ontario lives (15 million x 67% x 1.7% Alpha/Beta case fatality rate) with no guarantee of permanent immunity.

The model reveals 10K (of 11,954 total) will have perished unnecessarily due to misguided policymaker decisions to prematurely re-open.

Finding 66% of its Covid deaths in nursing homes, to Ontario's credit it was one of the first jurisdiction to initiate an Inquiry Commission to evaluate the crisis in long-term seniors care facilities.

Ontario's mortality rate:  0.09% or 852 deaths/million

BC analysis
The model projects Omicron's BA2/4/5 sub-variants will claim yet another 319 fatalities across the Province as the present wave expires in December -- based on lax existing policymaker mitigation.  Added to the current toll (3,722), an ultimate 4,041 victims are projected over 2020-2022.  Future variants-of-concern may inflate final numbers.

It reveals BC's wave#1 was initially suppressed way back on June 20th 2020 - when new daily cases had dwindled to single digits and the Province reported its ninth consecutive fatality-free day.  The model deemed wave#1 suppressed  a second time (late July 2021) when once again daily-deaths hit single digits.  And a third when Delta troughed in early January 2022.  Today's daily-deaths rate (9) is down substantially from the record 21/day in December 2020.

Troubling as today's ultimate projection may be, the alternative natural herd immunity strategy promoted by conspirators would have cost 33,500 BC lives (5 million x 67% x 1.0% Alpha/Beta case fatality rate) with no guarantee of permanent immunity.

The model reveals 2K souls (of 4,041 total) will have perished unnecessarily due to misguided policymaker decisions to prematurely re-open.

My analysis of a Canadian Medical Assoc Journal study of Excess Deaths (June 2022) indicates BC's ultimate Covid fatalities will, upon reconciliation, be 8,000 -- not the 4K suggested by BC Gov't & CDCBC official reporting.
 
This challenges BC's repeated boast of having among the lowest fatality, mortality & incidence rates across Canada & the globe.  But to their credit,
while British Columbia & Washington State were the first North American regions to see confirmed cases take off, wise leadership quickly contained the spread -- before falling victim to faulty re-opening strategies.

Further credit to BC in being among the first to mandate full vaccination for healthcare workers and bar family visitations to nursing homes and disallow care workers from attending multiple long-term residences.  Residents of BC long-term facilities comprise 68% of total fatalities.

BC mortality rate:  0.06% or 587 deaths/million

The TRENDLines Research POST-PEAK LINEARIZATION MODEL (PPLM)
These six Covid19 projections are generated by TR's linearization model.  It extrapolates a jurisdiction's mortality rate after the curve's peak - particularly the most recent days & weeks.  The graph's data points move left to right chronologically above its date's cumulative death toll on the x-axis.  The intersection (asymptote) of their trend line at the x-axis indicates an estimate of the ultimate total deaths.  As daily data points are added, a high y-axis data point (high mortality rate) will shift the bottom of the trend line to the right and a higher fatalities count ... and vice versa.

There is no medical component aside from tracking daily & cumulative fatalities.  This strictly mathematical model analyzes nuanced gradient changes in a curve's down-slope and assumes no change in gov't guidelines, orders or citizenry behaviour.  This same methodology has been one of the criteria by which TRENDLines Research has determined global & Saudi Arabia oil reserves since 2004.  On request, I can similarly chart any Nation, State, Province or Region - presented alone or with comparatives.

 
About TRENDLines Research
Data analyst Freddy Hutter of Vancouver Island BC has developed models & methodologies for macro-economic charts & guidance for policy-makers, stakeholders. legislators, investors, educators, and the public with a long term multi-disciplinary perspective since 1989.  TRENDLines removes the noise in (economic) data to reveal the underlying trends.  Specialties include:  Recession Indicators for Canada, USA & China;  Realty Bubble Indicators for Canada, USA, UK & Australia;  Global Oil Production & Price Component analysis/forecasts; & national, provincial Party & Presidential political election projections.  Covid-19 ultimate deaths forecasting is the most recent endeavour.


Archive of PPL Model's Projected 2020-2023 Covid19 Fatalities

BC
Ontario Canada
UK
USA
World
newMay 8 2023
6,14015,28053,190
241,400
1,134,700
6.97 million
April 11
6,51015,12053,340
234,000
1,135,000
6.95 million
March 19
5,51014,79052,620
232,700
1,134,000
6.90 million
Feb 17
8,60015,10056,000
260,000
1,138,000
6.91 million
Jan 9 2023
7,90014,28055,400
232,400
1,215,000
7.50 million
Dec 10 2022
5,19013,99051,000
221,050
1,137,000
6.89 million
Nov 7
5,24016,52053,910
200,900
1,126,000
6.75 million
Oct 9
4,50513,76046,840
208,750
1,129,000
6.67 million
Sept 12
4,63115,20052,150
207,730
1,079,000
6.78 million
Aug 214,28112,94046,400
208,260
1,085,000
6.67 million
July 31
4,05012,39043,470
201,270
1,076,000
6.60 million
June 30
4,04111,95442,300
200,100
1,050,300
6.42 million
May 20
3,56413,79042,270
200,200
1,027,200
6.36 million
April 8
3,06612,75038,470
195,650
1,015,000
6.33 million
March 6
3,19612,81038,050
163,180
1,071,000
6.31 million
February
-- Omicron variant surging in all 6 jurisdictions --
January 2022 -- Omicron variant surging in all 6 jurisdictions --
Dec 18 2021
2,48810,70031,190
154,200
889,000
5.8 million
Nov 24
2,36510,11030,700
150,250
859,000
6.1 million
Oct 9
2,0549,96029,200
141,730
773,000
5.6 million
September -- Delta variant surging in all 6 jurisdictions --
August
-- Delta variant surging in all 6 jurisdictions --
July 5
1,7789,80027,020
128,990
621,000
4.4 million
June 2
1,8079,44027,490
128,435
655,000
4.6 million
May 3
2,257
8,60025,820
128,200
650,000
4.3 million
April 1
1,668
7,96524,070
127,460
584,000
7.7 million
March 1
1,406
7,27022,840
127,100
570,000
2.9 million
Feb 3
1,317
7,68022,260
129,500
520,000
2.7 million
Jan 18
1,250
7,81022,700
102,700
604,000
9.0 million
Jan 2 2021
1,151
5,56019,000
139,000
763,000
4.4 million
Dec 16 2020
-
4,22015,330
89,000
599,000
3.2 million
Nov 20
-
-13,400
-396,000
2.1 million
Oct 20
412
3,54010,800
46,500295,000
2.0 million
Oct 10
374
3,5409,840
44,450289,000
2.1 million
Sept 30
290
3,03810,160
44,800270,000
1.7 million
Sept 20
437
2,9479,895
43,840266,000
1.7 million
Sept 10
277
2,9059,440
42,200245,000
1.4 million
Sept 5
274
2,909 9,460
42,120 267,000
1.4 million
Aug 30
216
2,9299,450
42,230284,000
1.4 million
Aug 25
217
2,8689,370
42,010269,000
1.5 million
Aug 20
205
2,8629,302
41,990265,000
1.5 million
Aug 15
204
2,8519,100
48,600418,000
2.1 million
Aug 10
207
2,8529,075
48,800377,000
2.5 million
Aug 5
205
2,8549,070
48,500282,000
2.0 million
July 30
207
2,8459,050
48,200308,000
2.0 million
July 25
199
2,8439,030
48,100239,000
1.6 million
July 20
215
2,8509,060
48,100204,000
1.5 million
July 15
200
2,8258,940
46,200180,000
1.1 million
July 10
189 2,8208,930
46,000175,000
1.2 million
July 5
180 2,8458,910
46,000173,000
1.2 million
June 30
177 2,8908,840
45,600161,000
1.3 million
June 25
172 2,9208,860
44,700141,000
1.2 million
June 21st 2020
Actual Deaths:
171 2,657 8,481
42,731 122,468
472,779
June 20 forecasts
for Year 2020

170
2,8109,000
46,800145,000
1,145,000
June 16
170
2,9409,660
48,900140,000
905,000
June 12
172
3,17010,200
47,400141,000
852,000
June 9
172
3,5309,430
49,200134,000
640,000
June 6
191
2,7709,700
45,500127,000
525,000
June 3
197
2,5508,470
42,500122,000
471,000
June 1
216
2,5408,370
42,000122,000
466,000
May 30
225
2,5307,990
41,600121,000
428,000
May 28
217
2,4807,870
41,100119,000
420,000
May 26
225
2,3907,590
41,600119,000
420,000
May 24
224

7,470

120,000
420,000
May 22
223

7,300

117,000
409,000
May 20
196

7,040

111,000
403,000
May 18
193

7,135

110,000
406,000
May 16
180

7,125

111,000
396,000
May 14
174

7,025

109,000
381,000
May 12
189

6,850

105,000
386,000
May 10
222

6,900

116,000
393,000
May 8
183

6,860

119,000
339,000
May 6
202

6,475

103,000
352,000
May 4
200

6,000

95,000
386,000
May 2
205

5,900

117,000
380,000
Apr 30 2020
238

5,120

80,000
380,000
Apr 28 forecasts
for June 21st 2020
176

3,960

70,500
314,000

TRUMP-VIRUS THRUST USA ECONOMY into TECHNICAL RECESSION in MARCH 2020

  Dec 18th 2021 update - So how did the USA embark on this historic crisis?  Here's a clue:  During a White House Rose Garden virtual town hall on March 25th 2020, the President stated to the Fox News host:

"You'll have packed churches all over the country.  It would be a resurrection of biblical proportions.  I would love to have the country opened up and raring to go by Easter.  It would be a beautiful thing. "Our country has to get back to work, otherwise it's going to be very hard to start it up again.  We can't lose the advantage we have."

It was on this precise day America was infected with "the TrumpVirus".  On that day the USA had only 4% of global Covid deaths - apropos considering the nation has 4% of the world's population.

But it marked the day everything changed.  And leads one to ask why does the USA have 23% of world's cumulative Covid cases, 56% of the today's global "active" cases & 24% of worldwide body bags?  The answer is founded in its citizenry electing a reality show celebrity as its President.  This business con man's failure to mitigate Covid-19's spread runs the length of his stay in office.

Albeit Obama's Homeland Security Chief (Lisa Monaco) briefed the incoming transition team with a robust "playbook", un-indicted Individual-1 shut down the White House's National Security Council's Pandemic Unit in 2018.  Dr Dennis Carol's Predict Program was cancelled by the White House in 2019.  And 'cuz their very public warnings were rocking the stock markets in Feb/2020, CDC's renowned disease experts Sarah Messonnier & Dr Bright were abruptly reassigned.

This prudent planning team was replaced by a muse "this flu will just go away with warm April sunshine".  After his "miracle" failed, the self-proclaimed "extremely stable genius" offered his cult following hydroxychloroquine, disinfectant injections and internal UV light remedies.

It was soon evident many continued to drink the Kool-Aid (or bleach?).  Prior to flattening their curves, mostly "red States" relaxed physical distancing, stay-at-home policies, masking & contact tracing.

From the onset it was evident Trump's "Opening Up America Again" campaign was rooted in politics.  Despite his bravado, to that point in time he failed to attain Obama's multiple 5% GDP growth rates.  2020's Q1/Q2/Q3 were his last-kick-at-the-can - hence his nonsensical dampened pandemic rhetoric thru January, February & March.  With Q1 going negative (-5%), he knew a large part of his Nov/2020 Election demise rested on Q2 & Q3 GDP.

So the motive for his March 25th plea (above) for Easter church goers to return to work April 14th is clear.  As a ratings savvy guy, he knew Q2 GDP (for Apr/May/June) would be announced in late July (with Aug27th & Sept30th revisions).  The Q3 GDP announcement was Oct29th - a mere five days prior to Election Day (Nov3rd).

And evidently, he's in huge trouble for failing to contain Covid-19.  The uncontained TrumpVirus resulted in GDP crashing at a historic -31% pace in Q2.  And of the 75 million workers initiating unemployment claims due to the pandemic during his term, 2.5 million remain on the rolls (1.7 mil pre-pandemic).  With no sign of his boasted V-shaped Recovery, Individual-1 tried some desperate manoeuvres ... like forcing schools to re-open ... attempting to postpone the Election ... sabotaging the postal system for an electoral advantage ... and challenging those mail-in ballots and finally ... recruiting nationalist militia to overthrow the Capitol on January 6th.

The President caused a TrumpVirus resurgence only for the purpose of salvaging his legacy.  He desperately wanted to avoid voters going to the polls realizing The Donald (alone) was at fault for April's 22% U-6 Unemployment Rate & plunging the U.S. economy into its deepest crash (-31% GDP) ever - including the Great Depression.

The TRENDLines Recession Indicator was the first macro-economic model to accurately reveal the magnitude of the Great Recession in real time.  In the 2013 chart below, TRI was forecasting a USA austerity crisis to occur in 2024 due to an uncontrolled $26 trillion National Debt.  But that day was pre-empted by a black swan event:  the TrumpVirus - a crisis of epic proportions in mismanagement, lack of containment & mitigation failures - resulting in 815,000 fatalities (thus far).

Despite interventions by the Federal Reserve via its monetary policy tool box and fiscal policy injections of trillions of dollars by Congress, it is probable the  American economy will suffer long-term consequences.  April's "real" Unemployment Rate (U-6) of 22% was the worst since the 26% high (1933) in the Great Depression (see chart below).  Q2GDP plunged 31% (annualized rate), dwarfing the 2008 & 1980 downturns and anything seen in the great Depression.

TRI USA long

the traditional definitions

TECHNICAL RECESSION:  Avg Gross Domestic Product growth rate (GDP) declines 0% to 2% for at least 2 Quarters within an environment of rising unemployment.
SEVERE RECESSION:  Avg GDP declines 2% to 4% for at least 4 Qtrs (1 yr)
DEPRESSION:  Avg GDP declines 4% to 8% for at least 8 Qtrs (2 yrs)
GREATER DEPRESSION:  Avg GDP declines over 8% for at least 16 Qtrs (4 yrs)

RECOVERY PERIOD:  monthly/quarterly nominal GDP expanding but remains below pre-contraction peak
EXPANSION PERIOD: 
monthly/quarterly nominal GDP finally exceeds pre-contraction peak

STRUCTURAL GDP (TRIX):  Real GDP adjusted for Fiscal Policy Deficit/Surplus effects to reveal growth rate of underlying economy
 
UPPER CLASS:  family wealth (net worth) is among the top 1% of society
MIDDLE CLASS:  family income is among the top 10% of society
WORKING CLASS:  all the rest...

U-6 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE:  Marginally attached workers are persons who currently are neither working nor looking for work but indicate that they want and are available for a job and have looked for work sometime in the recent past.  Discouraged workers  a subset of marginally attached, have given a job-market related reason for not looking currently for a job.  Persons employed part time for economic reasons are those who want and are available for full-time work but have had to settle for a part-time schedule.

real unemployment rates





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TRENDLines Research's

YUKON PROTOCOL
for the UN's
CLIMATE FINANCE DELIVERY PLAN
& its GREEN CLIMATE FUND

Nov 24th 2021 - TRENDLines Research published its "Yukon Protocol" on Aug 23 2009 to provide guidance to the UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) and policymakers of developed nations in establishing equitable contributions wrt the $100 billion Climate Finance Delivery Plan -- reaffirmed at COP26-Glasgow-2021.

As background, after each of the UN's IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) reports, developing nations begrudged demands on them to forego economical coal, oil and gases as their gracious part in "saving the planet".

Their objections are founded in the perceived unfairness that while today's wealthy nations achieved their status in part via industrialization under a high emissions regime, the latter has undergone an epiphany of sorts and so to suppress imminent climate change due to past sins, they now chastise developing nations for utilizing those same efficient fossil fuel resources to foster their growth.

So as a fairness measure to offset the cost burden of low emission infrastructure in young economies, COP15-Copenhagen-2009 proposed a Green Climate Fund (GCF) from which they can draw upon -- and to be funded by mature nations.

Subsequent COP's (Conference Of the Parties) established the GCF, but a dozen years on, donor nations continue a struggle to find equitable contribution levels.

TR's Yukon Protocol suggests a truly relevant apportionment of the $100 billion Climate Finance Delivery Plan rests in setting national contributions in accordance to each country's share of cumulative co2 emissions.

The Yukon Protocol's latest methodology divides up the $100 billion Climate Finance target among the top 100 co2 emitters using their known prorated share of cumulative emissions (since Year 1750).  Said 100 are responsible for 97% of total emissions for this period.  The remaining 114 nations are candidates for GCF grants & loans.

With full compliance, annual contributions within the Protocol range from $31 million assessed against Jamaica - the lowest of the 100 top emitters (0.03%) to $25.65 billion due from the largest - the USA (25.65%).  Over 2/3 of the target is achieved levying the top ten emitters.

Credit to CDIAC, GCP & OWID acknowledged as data sources.

link to 5pg printable PDF


YUKON PROTOCOL FOR CLIMATE FINANCE DELIVERY PLAN


Top 100
 emitter nations

funding proportion based on cumulative co2 emissions


assessed share of
$100 billion target


emitter rating

 

 

 

 

United States

25.65%

$25,651,095,494

1

China

13.76%

$13,755,684,167

2

Russia

7.12%

$7,120,711,038

3

Germany

5.75%

$5,746,176,106

4

United Kingdom

4.87%

$4,867,713,931

5

Japan

4.04%

$4,040,926,002

6

India

3.25%

$3,245,142,621

7

France

2.39%

$2,387,350,145

8

Canada

2.07%

$2,066,969,822

9

Ukraine

1.85%

$1,849,937,991

10

Poland

1.73%

$1,725,919,802

11

Italy

1.52%

$1,519,222,819

12

South Africa

1.29%

$1,291,856,139

13

Mexico

1.24%

$1,240,181,893

14

Iran

1.15%

$1,147,168,251

15

Australia

1.14%

$1,136,833,402

16

South Korea

1.06%

$1,064,489,458

17

Brazil

0.95%

$950,806,118

18

Saudi Arabia

0.93%

$930,136,420

19

Spain

0.92%

$919,801,571

20

Indonesia

0.85%

$847,457,627

21

Kazakhstan

0.84%

$837,122,778

22

Belgium

0.78%

$775,113,683

23

Czechia

0.74%

$744,109,136

24

Netherlands

0.72%

$723,439,438

25

Turkey

0.65%

$651,095,494

26

Taiwan

0.54%

$537,412,154

27

Romania

0.53%

$527,077,305

28

Argentina

0.52%

$516,742,456

29

Venezuela

0.49%

$485,737,908

30

Thailand

0.44%

$444,398,512

31

Uzbekistan

0.41%

$413,393,964

32

Egypt

0.38%

$382,389,417

33

Malaysia

0.36%

$361,719,719

34

Austria

0.34%

$341,050,021

35

Belarus

0.33%

$330,715,172

36

North Korea

0.32%

$320,380,322

37

Hungary

0.31%

$310,045,473

38

Pakistan

0.31%

$310,045,473

38

Sweden

0.31%

$310,045,473

38

United Arab Emirates

0.29%

$289,375,775

41

Algeria

0.28%

$279,040,926

42

Iraq

0.28%

$279,040,926

43

Denmark

0.26%

$258,371,228

44

Greece

0.25%

$248,036,379

45

Bulgaria

0.24%

$237,701,530

46

Nigeria

0.24%

$237,701,530

46

Slovakia

0.24%

$237,701,530

46

Vietnam

0.23%

$227,366,680

49

Colombia

0.21%

$206,696,982

50

Philippines

0.21%

$206,696,982

50

Finland

0.20%

$196,362,133

52

Switzerland

0.19%

$186,027,284

53

Chile

0.18%

$175,692,435

54

Kuwait

0.18%

$175,692,435

54

Serbia

0.18%

$175,692,435

54

Azerbaijan

0.17%

$165,357,586

57

Norway

0.17%

$165,357,586

57

Portugal

0.17%

$165,357,586

57

Turkmenistan

0.17%

$165,357,586

57

Israel

0.14%

$144,687,888

61

Ireland

0.13%

$134,353,038

62

Singapore

0.13%

$134,353,038

62

Libya

0.12%

$124,018,189

64

Qatar

0.12%

$124,018,189

64

New Zealand

0.11%

$113,683,340

66

Peru

0.11%

$113,683,340

66

Syria

0.11%

$113,683,340

66

Cuba

0.10%

$103,348,491

69

Hong Kong

0.10%

$103,348,491

69

Morocco

0.10%

$103,348,491

69

Bangladesh

0.09%

$93,013,642

72

Estonia

0.09%

$93,013,642

72

Trinidad & Tobago

0.09%

$93,013,642

72

Lithuania

0.08%

$82,678,793

75

Croatia

0.07%

$72,343,944

76

Ecuador

0.07%

$72,343,944

76

Oman

0.07%

$72,343,944

76

Bosnia & Herzegovina

0.06%

$62,009,095

79

Georgia

0.06%

$62,009,095

79

Moldova

0.06%

$62,009,095

79

Bahrain

0.05%

$51,674,246

82

Kyrgyzstan

0.05%

$51,674,246

82

Latvia

0.05%

$51,674,246

82

Luxembourg

0.05%

$51,674,246

82

Slovenia

0.05%

$51,674,246

82

Tunisia

0.05%

$51,674,246

82

Zimbabwe

0.05%

$51,674,246

82

Angola

0.04%

$41,339,396

89

Armenia

0.04%

$41,339,396

89

Dominican Republic

0.04%

$41,339,396

89

Jordan

0.04%

$41,339,396

89

Lebanon

0.04%

$41,339,396

89

Mongolia

0.04%

$41,339,396

89

North Macedonia

0.04%

$41,339,396

89

Yemen

0.04%

$41,339,396

89

Bolivia

0.03%

$31,004,547

97

Curacao

0.03%

$31,004,547

97

Guatemala

0.03%

$31,004,547

97

Jamaica

0.03%

$31,004,547

97

 

100.00%

 

assessed nations:

ver 21.1116

100.00%

$100,000,000,000

100

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

114 Recipient Entities:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Kenya

 

 

 

Myanmar

 

 

 

Sri Lanka

 

 

 

Sudan

 

 

 

Tajikistan

 

 

 

Albania

 

 

 

Brunei

 

 

 

Cote d'Ivoire

 

 

 

Cyprus

 

 

 

Gabon

 

 

 

Ghana

 

 

 

Honduras

 

 

 

Panama

 

 

 

Uruguay

 

 

 

Afghanistan

 

 

 

Bahamas

 

 

 

Benin

 

 

 

Botswana

 

 

 

Cambodia

 

 

 

Cameroon

 

 

 

Costa Rica

 

 

 

Democratic Republic of Congo

 

 

 

El Salvador

 

 

 

Equatorial Guinea

 

 

 

Ethiopia

 

 

 

Guyana

 

 

 

Iceland

 

 

 

Kosovo

 

 

 

Laos

 

 

 

Madagascar

 

 

 

Malta

 

 

 

Mauritius

 

 

 

Montenegro

 

 

 

Mozambique

 

 

 

Nepal

 

 

 

New Caledonia

 

 

 

Nicaragua

 

 

 

Papua New Guinea

 

 

 

Paraguay

 

 

 

Senegal

 

 

 

Suriname

 

 

 

Tanzania

 

 

 

Uganda

 

 

 

Zambia

 

 

 

Andorra

 

 

 

Anguilla

 

 

 

Antigua & Barbuda

 

 

 

Aruba

 

 

 

Barbados

 

 

 

Belize

 

 

 

Bermuda

 

 

 

Bhutan

 

 

 

Bonaire Sint Eustatius & Saba

 

 

 

British Virgin Islands

 

 

 

Burkina Faso

 

 

 

Burundi

 

 

 

Cape Verde

 

 

 

Central African Republic

 

 

 

Chad

 

 

 

Comoros

 

 

 

Congo

 

 

 

Cook Islands

 

 

 

Djibouti

 

 

 

Dominica

 

 

 

Eritrea

 

 

 

Eswatini

 

 

 

Faeroe Islands

 

 

 

Fiji

 

 

 

French Polynesia

 

 

 

Gambia

 

 

 

Greenland

 

 

 

Grenada

 

 

 

Guinea

 

 

 

Guinea-Bissau

 

 

 

Haiti

 

 

 

Kiribati

 

 

 

Lesotho

 

 

 

Liberia

 

 

 

Liechtenstein

 

 

 

Macao

 

 

 

Malawi

 

 

 

Maldives

 

 

 

Mali

 

 

 

Marshall Islands

 

 

 

Mauritania

 

 

 

Micronesia

 

 

 

Montserrat

 

 

 

Namibia

 

 

 

Nauru

 

 

 

Niger

 

 

 

Niue

 

 

 

Palau

 

 

 

Palestine

 

 

 

Rwanda

 

 

 

Saint Helena

 

 

 

Saint Kitts & Nevis

 

 

 

Saint Lucia

 

 

 

Saint Pierre & Miquelon

 

 

 

Saint Vincent & Grenadines

 

 

 

Samoa

 

 

 

Sao Tome & Principe

 

 

 

Seychelles

 

 

 

Sierra Leone

 

 

 

Sint Maarten (Dutch)

 

 

 

Solomon Islands

 

 

 

Somalia

 

 

 

South Sudan

 

 

 

Timor

 

 

 

Togo

 

 

 

Tonga

 

 

 

Turks & Caicos Islands

 

 

 

Tuvalu

 

 

 

Vanuatu

 

 

 

Wallis & Futuna

 

 

 

 

About TRENDLines Research

Data analyst Freddy Hutter of Vancouver Island BC has developed models & methodologies for macro-economic charts & guidance for policy-makers, stakeholders. legislators, investors, educators, and the public with a long term multi-disciplinary perspective since 1989.  TRENDLines removes the noise in (economic) data to reveal the underlying trends.  Specialties include:  Recession Indicators for Canada, USA & China;  Realty Bubble Indicators for Canada, USA, UK & Australia;  Global Oil Production & Price Component analysis/forecasts;  & national, provincial Party & Presidential political election projections.  Covid-19 ultimate deaths forecasting is the most recent endeavour.



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  • the FreeVenue chart-of-the-day is a public posting of guidance (charts, tables & analysis)

  • Trendlines Research has been publishing charts & analysis relating to Peak Oil, Macro-Economics, Climate Change & Political Election Projections since 1989.  Data analyst Freddy Hutter's media and professional commentary on these issues commenced in 1973

  • all charts, tables & text © 1989-2021 all rights reserved TRENDLines Research 

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