The Yukon

Yukon Poll - Part IV - Fentie Poised to Lose 4 Cabinet Ministers & the Right to Govern

We are presently in the final day of tabulations of our Summer Yukon survey: an analysis of each of the 18 Electoral Districts and their 73 Polling Divisions. TrendLines will shortly reveal who Yukoners presently want to hold those Ridings... or don't want! There will be many surprises and some status quo...

First off will be Copperbelt ... a mere 30 days or less after the Arntzen Sentencing & Resignation; then proceeding thru the whole list of 18 with y'all. The graph below shows the Election2002 standings. Within days (or hours), it will show us who's in the lead; who is in second; and who is pulling up the rear. You are sure to enjoy some of the comments of the common folk and a few of our own thoughts...

Sept 29th update: Our Copperbelt polling continues thru September!! Check back here 'cuz in less than a week, we will learn whether the Yukon Party is poised to reclaim this Independent Riding or see it snatched away from them by Arthur Mitchell of the Liberal Party or by newly nominated Maureen Stephens of the NDP. Six Incumbents (incl 4 Cabinet Ministers) are presently not destined to retain their Ridings ... stakeholders will know their identities as well:

1. ?

2. ?

3. ?

4. ?

5. ?

6. ?

Yukon Poll - Part III - Yukon NDP Poised to Form Minority Gov't

The inherent fault of opinion polls, as explained at our Politics page, is that they don't reveal concentrations of support among the Ridings. In short, to win seats a Party normally wants over 40% support in as many Ridings as possible, not mediocre support in all the Districts. This is how the Reform Party always elected more MP's than the PC's even tho the latter had many more votes on Election Day. The Tory support was spread across the Nation whereas Preston Manning had all his popular opinion support concentrated in the West.

Similarly on the local scene, in the 2002 Yukon Election, the Liberal Party had 29% and won a single District while the NDP with 27% elected five MLA's ... again due to the concentration phenomena.

And thus we present to y'all today the Yukon's first Riding Projection based upon a scientific poll:

9	NDP MLA's
5	Yukon Party MLA's
4	Liberal Party MLA's
0	Indep't

Our Federal Riding Projection gets rave reviews across Canada because folks can more easily picture what could happen when they see popularity expressed in terms of the "number of MP's that each Party would likely elect", rather than in vague "popular opinion percent" terms. With our relocation to the Yukon, we are attempting to use this approach for the interest of political junkies at the Territory level as well. The graph above is a compilation of the analysis of the available public opinion data done by Donna Larsen of DataPath since the 2002 Election. It projects historically the MLA distribution in the 18 Electoral Districts had there been hypothetical elections in 2003, 2004 or early 2005.

The August 2005 Projection is based on our polling data of 459 Yukoners this Summer across the 73 Polling Divisions of the 18 Electoral Districts. Only 6% were Undecided making this an excellent sampling.

For the first time, we can now illustrate graphically a reflection in "electable MLA" terms: (a) the plunging popularity of the Yukon Party Gov't; (b) the Haakon Arntzen resignation from their Caucus in April 2004 to sit as an Independent MLA; (c) the bump for the Liberals from their Spring 2005 Leadership campaign; and (d) the tentative standing after the Autumn By-Election which shows no change as we have already accounted for the vacant Independent seat going to the poll's leading Party therein.

The next election must be called by Premier Dennis Fentie by Nov/2006. A by-election must be called by March 12th for Copperbelt Electoral District due to Haakon Arntzen's resignation this month. Mr Fentie has indicated that it will be this Autumn.

Below, an illustration of changing popularity levels of the major political parties in The Yukon's Territorial scene. As explained above, it matters not that the Yukon Party has the lead 'cuz we have discovered in our poll that the NDP lead them in 9 Ridings. That's how the "first past the post" system works. It matters not that the YP may have more votes on Election Day. It's all about how they are spread out...

35%	Yukon Party
34%	NDP
29%	Liberal Party
1%	Indep't

The Press Release (2005/9/09):

TrendLines Poll: Yukon NDP Poised to Form Minority Gov't

Judas Creek, YT - With Premier Dennis Fentie's mandate running out in fifteen months, a mid-Summer survey of public opinion by TrendLines, a market research firm recently relocated to the Yukon, projects that the governing Yukon Party may have headed for certain defeat by taking only 5 of the 18 Electoral Districts, had there been a General Election at this time. That is a net loss of six from its present status. Meanwhile, the NDP would have seen their fortune rise by four for a total of 9 and the Liberal Party would have gained three for a total of 4 MLA's. Ten is a crucial minimum number for any party that hopes to govern with a voting majority in the Legislature. This was a scientific random survey with 454 Respondents of which 6% were Undecided..

Commenting on the results and voter feedback, TrendLines analyst, Freddy Hutter elaborated that "Of course this is just a snapshot in time, but present indications are that Todd Hardy and the NDP are poised to form a Minority Gov't in the Yukon. One must be cautious with this data because it is also clear that many respondents will not make a decision 'til they know who the candidates are within their own Electoral District. That is to say, the local candidate is more important to some in their decision making than is Party loyalty, Party platforms or a choice based on their feelings towards the three Territorial Leaders. In that respect, we are seeing in some Districts that there are several Incumbents who are hurting because of their Yukon Party affiliation in particular. We often got the comment that "I like my Incumbent and I would vote for my MLA normally but i can's stand Fentie and/or the Yukon Party any longer". And when those Respondents said the Yukon Party, i am quite sure that they meant the Fentie Cabinet, because our data shows that 4 of his 6 Cabinet Ministers would have been defeated based on present sentiment. But i will add that this anti governing party emotion is common when a right wing, business oriented Party is implementing its platform. Turning a jurisdiction's economy and momentum around often requires unpleasant decisions. And normally, as we near the brink of an Election, voters do a "pause and reflect" and give them the second mandate realizing that new policy has a long implementation period and concrete results take even more time. There is generally an acknowledgment that things are better than times at the end of the previous Administration. Among the NDP & Yukon Incumbents, we have some that are more popular than their Party and will be re-elected regardless; but we have some that are likewise more popular than their Party but will be overwhelmed by this NDP momentum.

"And it goes a step further. Although Premier Dennis Fentie received a sweeping endorsement of his Leadership at the Spring AGM of his Party, that popularity does not seem to trickle down to the general population. A growing perception executive "aloofness" seems to turn off quite a chunk of voters during our snapshot this season and, while he has excellent name recognition ... the attitude towards Mr Fentie is not what i would call a ringing endorsement or value add to the Party right now. Fortunately the Premier has over a year to do some repair work to his image. To win, i get the feeling that the voters will not allow the Yukon Party to renew its mandate based on its record alone. They, the electorate, want also to see a plan of action for what's coming in the next term ... and it had better address some of their outstanding issues. And it would be wise for the Cabinet to use a consultative process to build that Policy Platform. Anecdotally I sense that Business, Industry and Social proponents desire input to where the Territory is headed in the medium and long term.

It is significant that this same vocal disdain against a Party or its Leader is not aimed at either the NDP or Liberal Party in folks' comments. In the end, people will have to decide whether the unpopular decisions are best for our long term growth and sustainable prosperity. We saw a parallel scenario in BC where the silent majority had a similar dilemma in May and returned a very unpopular Campbell and his Liberals to continue its agenda. A year ago the Liberals really sucked in the polls but folks had to come to terms with what a change in gov't would do to the momentum of the Economy down there. And they had some help from the process of vote splitting. The Green Party sapped away votes on Election Day. Had that not happened, it is clear from the number crunching that the NDP could have formed a Minority Gov't in the Spring. Likewise here, there is marginal support that is switching between polls from the NDP to the Liberal Party and back. At an opportune time, the Yukon Party could win on that split vote phenomena. In summary, if the Yukon Party is seen to have compassion toward some social and green issues, a second mandate is within grasp, given the flexibility in the time line."

The Premier has pledged to grant Copperbelt voters a By-Election. That event could allow the Yukon Party to trial balloon some of its visions for the second mandate. If Arthur Mitchell wins, then that process also allows the public to see the new Liberal Leader in Question Period in the Spring. His performance there and his Statements in the public forum throughout the Territory will allow venues for the voters to gauge his abilities against Toddy Hardy and even the Premier. Today's Party support levels and our Riding Projection can take on a significant new look depending on whether Arthur impresses or fails. A poor performance could enhance NDP support and push the NDP into Majority domain. A reasonable performance could split the vote and give the Yukon Party the win. While a stellar job may award the Liberals another but outside chance at governing."

"There is a huge responsibility possibly facing the next Premier, whoever it will be. There are forces afoot to fast track Bush's Homeland Security agenda of an Alaskan Pipeline twinned with a railway. The Yukon will need a strong negotiating team for the many decisions that must be made. It is imperative that the electorate take that into consideration when marking the ballot. On that note, I caution Yukoners to take the time and watch Question Period this Autumn and in the Spring. In watching the last Spring and Fall sessions, there seems to be very little debate on issues and vision related substance. It has become a playground for evasion and character assassinations by almost all the Players. Because some other jurisdictions do the same does not make it right. We need more citizens in there that will help raise the bar. We know who the shining lights are in that place. In 2006, voters have another chance to make it a venue that promotes good gov't and decorum or let it drift along with the same old same old."

"I always mention a huge caveat when discussing mid-term polls. The Incumbents are running against "phantom Candidates for the other Parties. It must be remembered that not all Parties have the same depth to field a team of candidates, let alone a future Cabinet, and when District voters see who their final choices are, the sentiment that we see today can vanish quickly. There is also an unwarranted assumption in the methodology that all the Incumbents will run for re-election. We may see some of the present MLA's choose not to run again and some may fail to be re-nominated by their Constituency Associations in favour of Party members deemed to be more qualified or a better campaigner."

According to Hutter, "Despite the potential loss of six Ridings, the Yukon Party continues to hold the lead in popular opinion with 35% overall support in the Territory; the NDP follows with 34% and the Liberals hold 29% of decided voters while a mere 1% desire as yet undeclared Independent candidates." Compared to the last election, this represents a loss of 5% for the Yukon Party and the gain of 7% by the NDP. The Liberal Party holds even and the Independents are down 3%. "Concentration of support is more important than the overall numbers" said Hutter. "As a number cruncher, i must remind all that in the 2002 Election, the NDP were two per cent behind the Liberals in total votes cast but attained four more seats! ". Currently, the NDP has the greatest gain when one considers that the breakdown of total votes in the 2002 Election was: Yukon Party - 40%, Liberal Party - 29%, NDP - 27% & Independents - 4%.

TrendLines, recently relocated to Judas Creek from the Sea-to-Sky Corridor near Whistler and has been active in political and economic affairs since 1989. This is their first Yukon poll and it is the largest political sampling in the Yukon since the 2002 Election.

Of most current interest as a voting constituency is the Autumn by-election initiated by Haakon Arntzen's resignation as the Independent MLA for the Electoral District of Copperbelt. TrendLines analyst, Freddy Hutter, advised that results of how each Party is doing in Copperbelt and each of the other 17 Electoral Districts may be released later in the month.

Based on the 456 Yukoners that were randomly selected from the 73 Polling Divisions of the 18 Electoral Districts, this scientific survey was conducted from July 23-Aug 21 2005 and has a margin of error of 4.6% on the Secession Poll (incl 2% Undecided), the Federal Yukon Riding Poll (9% Undecided) & the YTG Popular Opinion Poll (6% Undecided) and 20% for each of the 18 individual YTG Electoral Districts (overall 6% Undecided) used in the Yukon Riding Projection, 19 times in 20. The national polls used in the Federal Riding Projection had an average margin of error of 3.5%.

As background profile, Freddy Hutter of TrendLines has been active in politics since watching the Trudeau leadership bid in 1968 and his Poli-Sci days at Univ of Waterloo where he says socialism thrived. Due to his political savvy and pulse on public opinion, he has in the past accepted invitations Outside to act as a resource person and Board of Director for the NDP, Liberal, Reform and Reform-Ontario Parties. That tradition continues and Hutter has been welcomed as a Director to several Societies as well as the Conservative and Yukon Parties since his arrival in November. When not in election mode, his career has included research in the fields of global climate change with respect to long term solar cycles and a unique presentation on the depletion of global oil reserves. He does real estate analysis, real estate and business financing, economic analysis, web design, and as a small business coach, is a casual instructor of Entrepreneurship for First Nations at Yukon College. His phone canvasser and soul mate is a former Solidarity activist, Evalina Zamana, now a proud Canadian Citizen and a financial planner with a specialty in Registered Education Savings Plans (RESP's). They moved to Judas Creek with their Hungarian sheep dog, a Kuvasz named Topaz, from the BC's Sea-to-Sky Corridor. Hutter hails from Kitchener-Waterloo and Woodstock while Zamana's hometown is Bialystok, Poland. Although this was a random scientific poll, in a North American first, the survey results were available to Respondents at the firm's website in real time over the thirty day event. Shortly after hanging up, Respondents could go online and see running graphs of the results. Commentary and a variety of other polls and graphs on a variety of subjects are available at the firm's website, www.TrendLines.ca and Hutter may be contacted via graphs@TrendLines.ca for questions, comments or to contract their varied consultive services.
Copyright 2005.

The Press Release (2005/9/02):

TrendLines Poll: Will Larry Bagnell & the Liberals Retain Yukon Riding?

Judas Creek, YT - With a post-Gomery Report Federal Election pledged for February by Paul Martin, things are looking very positive for Liberal incumbent Larry Bagnell. A local survey done by TrendLines, a polling firm recently relocated to Judas Creek in the Yukon, shows that exactly 50% of Yukoners support Bagnell compared to 24% for the Conservatives and 24% of decided popular opinion for the NDP. Neither of the latter parties have nominated candidates in place at this time. The "others" category trails with 2%. But TrendLines analyst Freddy Hutter commented "It is apparent from Larry's Summer Report distributed last month that he is distancing himself from the Liberal Party of Canada. On examination, the word "Liberal" and Liberal Logo are nowhere to be seen. While we find he has high popularity in the survey comments, he is definitely more popular than his Party for sure. If Bagnell loses, it will be due to the unpopularity of Paul Martin and the Gomery Inquiry disclosures of Party corruption, not due to anything disliked about Larry or his record. This is very clear."

Also released today was the August update to the TrendLines Federal Riding Projection. Although TrendLines analyst Freddy Hutter does not expect an Election until Feb 20th 2006, the current projection illustrates how many seats each Party would win if a Canadian Election were called today. This month's Projection shows that the Liberals would remain in Minority status with 143 ridings to their claim, based upon analysis of national opinion poll data within the last thirty days. Steven Harper's Conservative Party would retain Official Opposition status with 79 ridings, the Bloc-Quebecois would have held 62 seats and the NDP 24 if an Election was held in August. A Party requires 155 seats to attain majority status in the 308-seat House of Commons. Since the June 2004 Election, these results reflect a gain of 8 each for the Liberals and the Bloc Quebecois, five for the NDP and a loss of 20 Ridings for the Conservative Party. TrendLines has been active in economic and political affairs since 1989.

Hutter commented "There clearly is no appetite among voters for an Election. But, Canadians are none-the-less committed to one based on the Prime Minister's June pledge to let voters go to the polling booth after the Gomery Final Report, expected Dec 15th. There is widespread criticism that the Conservative Party misplayed their cards in the House of Commons. I don't agree. It is evident in retrospect that Stephen Harper had only a one week window to strike. It is unfair the way the media and even Conservative Party members are blasting him for dropping the ball. It is my impression that folks very soon realized that the guilty scoundrels had already been purged from their bureaucratic or Quebec Liberal Party positions and that there were no sitting MP's in Ottawa that could be blamed for this past misconduct. Hence no Election was required and the national polls did a reversal back to the Liberal Party.

I am also certain that when the Inquiry lawyers could not ask Chrétien or Martin one burning question upon their appearance, it was seen that there was no smoking gun and the issue was basically dead in back in February. There was a brief flurry of enthusiasm among the media and the Opposition in April with certain Liberal insider confessions, but it was a dead horse at that stage, in my opinion. We have seen in the national polls that even if Belinda had not crossed the Floor, the Liberal Party favour was rebounding. Had the Gov't been defeated in the Spring, the House standing would have been almost the same as the 2004 Election status. A major disruption and waste of taxpayers' money for naught. There are a lot of pundits out there that don't have a clue what they are talking about frankly when they give their analysis of what happened on the Hill this year."

The Territory survey was conducted July 23-Aug 21 and includes 456 residents across the Yukon, incl 9% Undecided, yielding a margin of error of 4.6%, 19 times in 20. This was Part II in a multiple release of this large political survey.

TrendLines is currently tabulating Part III of the Survey and it will answer inquiring minds that wonder which of the three Parties will form the government when Dennis Fentie attempts to renew his mandate in a Territorial Election that must be called by November 2006. Currently the Yukon Party has 11 MLA's, the NDP 5, there is one Liberal and a single Independent. This soon to be released poll result, like his renowned Federal Riding projection, will be the first scientific poll locally that is done in a manner that gives the public a likely prediction of the number of MLA's that would have been elected by each Party to the Yukon Legislature had a Summer general election been called.

In Part I last week, TrendLines released figures showing that 18% of Yukoners would be in favour of Seceding from Canada if BC & Alberta would vote to Separate from Canada. Hutter found that the hot spots for Secession were communities with strong Conservative and likely former Reform Party ties. Growing fatigue with Ottawa has bred active Separatist Parties in BC, Alberta, Saskatchewan & Manitoba.

As a background profile to their first Yukon market survey, Freddy Hutter of TrendLines has been active in politics since watching the Trudeau leadership bid in 1968 and his Poli-Sci days at Univ of Waterloo where he says socialism thrived. Due to his political savvy and pulse on public opinion, he has in the past accepted invitations Outside to act as a resource person and Board of Director for the NDP, Liberal, Reform and Reform-Ontario Parties. That tradition continues and Hutter has been welcomed as a Director to several Societies as well as the Conservative and Yukon Parties since his arrival in November. When not in election mode, his career has included research in the fields of global climate change with respect to long term solar cycles and a unique presentation on the depletion of global oil reserves. He does real estate analysis, real estate and business financing, economic analysis, web design, and as a small business coach, is a casual instructor of Entrepreneurship for First Nations at Yukon College. His phone canvasser and soul mate is a former Solidarity activist, Evalina Zamana, now a proud Canadian Citizen and a financial planner with a specialty in Registered Education Savings Plans (RESP's). They moved to Judas Creek with their Hungarian sheep dog, a Kuvasz named Topaz, from the BC's Sea-to-Sky Corridor. Hutter hails from Kitchener-Waterloo and Woodstock while Zamana's hometown is Bialystok, Poland. Although this was a random scientific poll, in a North American first, the survey results were available to Respondents at the firm's website in real time over the thirty day event. Shortly after hanging up, Respondents could go online and see running graphs of the results. Commentary and a variety of other polls and graphs on a variety of subjects are available at the firm's website, www.TrendLines.ca and Hutter may be contacted via graphs@TrendLines.ca for questions, comments or to contract their varied consultive services.

The Press Release (2005/8/26):

TrendLines Poll: Should The Yukon Secede from Canada?

Judas Creek, YT - Almost one of five Yukoners favours Separation from Canada, should the Western Provinces decide in the future to go it alone. In the first survey of its kind in the Yukon, a new poll by TrendLines, an established polling firm recently relocated to Judas Creek, shows that 18% of Yukoners support joining with BC & Alberta should those Provinces decide to secede from Canada. This follows on the heels of a simultaneous poll in the four western provinces where support for Secession talks ranges from 42% - 28%. Whereas the Western Standard poll asked a softer question with respect to "opening discussions" on Separation, the TrendLines poll was more direct and asked 449 Yukon residents if they favour outright Secession from Canada in an alliance with Alberta & BC.

Our hot spots for western alienation from Ottawa are the Southern Lakes Electoral District where almost four in ten (38%) voted in favour, followed by about one in four in Klondike (29%), Watson Lake (27%), Whitehorse Centre (25%), Kluane & Vuntut Gwitchin (24%) and one in five in Whitehorse West (20%).

Federalism is highest in Riverdale South where the support for Secession was only one in 25 (4%), followed by Pelly-Nisutlin (9%), Porter Creek North (11%), Porter Creek South, Riverdale North & McIntyre-Takhini (13%), Mount Lorne & Lake Laberge (17%), Mayo-Tatchun & Porter Creek Centre (18%) and Copperbelt (19%).

Over the past several years, growing fatigue with Ottawa has bred active Secession oriented Parties in BC, Alberta, Saskatchewan & Manitoba.

TrendLines analyst, Freddy Hutter, stated that the question asking if Yukoners wish to Secede from Canada was a stealth timebomb included in a survey asking about local support for the major political parties should there be either a Federal or Territorial Election in the coming months. More results of those ongoing surveys and tabulations will be released next week.

Hutter continued "I sense that the West has resigned to itself over the Gomery Commission that Westerners have a different value system and priorities than the East. Whereas jobs, growth, political correctness and status quo are all important to Ontario, the West sees itself now as more principled and that its hopes for Reform's reforms will never be. Whether it is a serious movement or underlies a ploy for concessions, i don't know, but western alienation is presenting itself in a Secession movement. There are lotsa frustrations but at this point in time the West and North know they have an ace to play ... energy resources. That self confidence can allow this to take on a life of its own if it gets momentum... especially if some charismatic figure comes to the forefront with lotsa passion. There is a direct correlation between old Reform hotbeds in the Yukon and pockets of pro-secession sentiment."

TrendLines, active in economic and political affairs since 1989, is renowned for its Federal Riding Projection that illustrates how many seats each Party would win if a Canadian Election were called. The balance of the current Yukon survey will answer inquiring minds that wonder for example how Larry Bagnell will do against yet unnamed Conservative and NDP candidates in Paul Martin's pledge for a January writ drop. Or, how many MLA's the Yukon Party will retain when Dennis Fentie attempts to renew his mandate in a Territorial Election that must be called by November 2006.

Today's Secession Support survey was conducted July 23-Aug 21 and includes 449 residents across the Yukon, yielding a margin of error of 4.7%, 19 times in 20. Of the total, only 8 persons (less than 2%) called were Undecided on this issue, an extraordinarily low number and indicative that folks are quite certain of their stand. This is the largest political poll in the Yukon since the Territorial Election.

Respecting background to their first Yukon survey, please note that Freddy Hutter of TrendLines has been active in politics since weaning on the Trudeau leadership bid in 1968 and his Poli-Sci days at University of Waterloo where he says socialism thrived in the early 70's. It was a time of protest marches and an occupation of the Dean's office. Unfortunately, the reason for the uprising is long forgotten!!

Due to his political savvy and pulse on public opinion, he has in the past accepted invitations Outside to join the Board of Directors of the NDP, Liberal, Reform and Reform-Ontario Parties. That tradition continues and Hutter has been welcomed as a Director to several Societies as well as the Conservative and Yukon Parties since his arrival North of 60 in November.

When not in election mode, his career has included research in the fields of global climate change and global oil reserves, economic analysis, real estate market analysis, real estate & business financing, web design, and as a small business coach, is a casual instructor of Entrepreneurship for First Nations at Yukon College.

His phone canvasser and soul mate is a former Solidarity activist, Evalina Zamana, now a proud Canadian Citizen and a financial planner with a specialty in Registered Education Savings Plans (RESP's). They moved to Judas Creek with their Hungarian sheep dog, a Kuvasz named Topaz, from the BC's Sea-to-Sky Corridor. Hutter's hails from Kitchener-Waterloo and Woodstock while Zamana's hometown is Bialystok, Poland. The polling is ongoing and updated results and other polls and graphs on a variety of subjects are available at the firm's website, www.TrendLines.ca and Hutter may be contacted via graphs@TrendLines.ca for questions, comments or to contract their varied consultive services.
Copyright 2005.

Send email to Freddy Hutter with questions or comments about this web site Copyright © 1989-2010 TrendLines Research ~ Last modified: February 01, 2010

Send email to Freddy Hutter with questions or comments about this web site
Copyright © 1989-2010 TrendLines Research ~ Last modified: February 01, 2010