Peak Oil Depletion - Charts for Prediction & Projection of Peak Date, Rate & Decline

Peak Oil Depletion & Energy Issues

Peak Oil Since 1956 • Saudi Arabia Outlook • URR • BarrelMeter, GasPump & World Production Records • Scenarios • Freddy Hutter's Peak Scenario 2200

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Scroll down for this month's newest TrendLines charts ... or click "what's new" links to go to topic venue

(= last 30 days)

Tracking of Projections for Regular Conventional Oil ... Colin Campbell drawn from Retirement for 2010 update

Quarterly Production for the Top 7 Nations

World Production Records ~ 2010 setting new Annual Record ~ new Quarterly Record set in Q1 ~ Monthly Record poised for January

the Gas Pump ~ USA Gasoline Price Components & Crack Spread ~ New Car Sales poised to Collapse in Q1 upon $3.42/gallon ($92/barrel)

TrendLines Barrel Meter Compared to Recognized Long-Term Crude Oil Price Forecasts ~ EIA raises 2035 target to $224/barrel

TrendLines Barrel Meter ~ $92/barrel Oil ($3.42/gal pump) in 2011Q1 Could Decimate USA New Car Sales (again) ~ View our 1-yr, 5-yr, 10-Yr & 25-Yr Price Targets

June Update of our Peak Oil Depletion Scenarios Presentation: 19-Model Tier-1 Avg indicates Peak Oil Target is 94-mbd in 2024

June Update of Freddy Hutter's Peak Scenario 2200 Model: Catastrophic Supply Decline Starts in 2051 (Peak: 102-mbd in 2030)

~ Update of TrendLines URR Linearizations chart

~ Tracking Update for the Colin Campbell ASPO-IE Depletion Model 1989-2009

~ McPeaksters Declare Top for 20th Year ... 1989 to 2008 ... Milestone to Celebrate? Or Peak for theOilDrum?

~ 2009 Update of 21-model URR Estimates chart & URR Annual Growth vs Annual Consumption chart

~ Growth Rate of URR since 1957 ~ 150-Gb in 2009

~ Year-end Saudi Supply Again Underscores Ridiculous Forecasts at theOilDrum & by Matt Simmons

~ TrendLines 5th Annual Saudi Arabia Supply Outlook ~ 2009 Peak being Masked by Surplus Capacity

~ Irrational Exuberance Revisited: TrendLines Barrel Meter vs Jeff Rubin of CIBC World Markets

~ Triple Crown! Aug 5th ~ Freddy Hutter is Pleased to Announce that PeakOil.com has Banned Several of Us from Posting our Comments & Charts. Added to similar Mass Bans at theOilDrum.com & EnergyResources--YahooGroup, this Marks the 3rd Agenda-Driven Forum to Shield its Members from the Realities of Peak Oil. This Summer Marks the 20th Consecutive Year of Failed Peak Peak Oil Predictions. To their Detriment, All 3 Forums Encourage Elements of the Lunatic Fringe to Disseminate a Cornucopia of Nonsense Relating to the Imminent Collapse of Crude Extraction, the USA Economy, the Dollar ... and Climate Patterns.

~ Update of the TrendLines Scenario of Peaks in Fossil Fuel Emissions. Atmospheric co2 Concentration Projection to 2100: the Peak will be 408ppm in 2025

~ Update of Campbell/ASPO Stealth Discoveries chart

~ TrendLines Research Projects Peak of 425ppm in Atmospheric co2 in 2025 ... not the 800 in Al Gore's Scary Graph

~ Feature: TrendLines Presentations to the 2007 USA (NPC) Nat'l Petroleum Council's Global Oil & Gas Study

Scroll down for this month'sTrendLines charts ~ click graph for more background or topic venue

Regular Conventional Oil Scenarios

Campbell drawn from Retirement for 2010 update

July 29 2010 ~ There have been only 4 modellers worldwide that study Regular Conventional Oil ... the light sweet crude: Albert Bartlett (USA), Colin Campbell (Ireland), M King Hubbert (USA) & TrendLines' own Freddy Hutter (Yukon Canada).

Jean Laherrère & Colin Campbell have been the sector's most stalwart peak oil study practitioners. Both have openly shared their annual analysis with fellow modellers for two decades. This month Colin came out of retirement with a surprise update. Campbell's 2010 Depletion Model still assumes RCO's dramatic 2.5% production decline rate will continue unabated 'til 2030, but it increases RCO resource by 63-gb to 1,963-Gb. This is a career high estimate for the DM.
Conversely, the Hutter Peak Scenario 2200 (the only other active model) projects a softer 1.5% avg annual decline rate to 2030, with a resource of 2,064-Gb. While Campbell forecasts the annual flow rate deteriorates to 35-mbd (down 1) by 2030, Hutter takes the position 47mbd (down 8) is more probable. On the longer term, whereas Campbell predicts the annual Decline rate will soften after 2030, and even more post-2050, Hutter sees major resource constraint culminating in an R/P 9 (10% decline) environment in 2051. Prior to that, Hutter forecasts a secondary peak to 55-mbd while RCO reserves are used to replenish waning arctic & deep-sea extraction from 2030-2050.
The basis for the Hutter Peak Scenario 2200 interpretation lies in its analysis that the four-year extraction decline was actually a masking of reality by ever increasing surplus capacity ... mostly by OPEC members. 2010 will be the watershed year in determining which premise is correct. If Campbell's hypothesis of continued aggressive decline of 2.5% is in play, RCO should be only 60.2-mbd this year. OTOH, if RCO stays above that threshold, then the Hutter position may be superior. And by extension, the scenario with the correct interpretation will likely be rewarded with the more accurate All Liquids projection as well. Thus far in 2010, year-to-date figures indicate there has been a pause in the decline ... 62.3-mbd.
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July 28th ~ In a grudge match that's lasted 25 years, Russia has regained the lead as World's top All Liquids producer. It is improbable Russia's 1987 annual/quarterly/monthly records of 11.5-mbd will ever be surpassed.

Russia is steady @ 10.4-mbd, while Saudi Arabia sits at an OPEC quota restricted 9.6-mbd. In 3rd place, the USA is stable @ 8.3-mbd,

Following are China (4.0), Iran (3.7), Canada (3.2) & Mexico (3.0-mbd).

TrendLines Research's All Liquids Underlying Decline Rates Observed in 2010: Worldwide 2.9%, Saudi Arabia 2.7% & USA 2.5%

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July 27th ~ The pace of flow rates to July 13th indicates a new global Annual Supply record of 85.6-mbd is being set in 2010.

A new global Quarterly Supply record of 86.0-mbd was set in 2010Q1. July 2008 continues its distinction for the all time global Monthly Supply record: 86.7-mbd, 0.7-mbd above today's monthly pace of 86.0-mbd. Projection of year-to-date flows infers the next new monthly record will be set in January 2011.

The Quarterly record for Demand of 86.9-mbd was set in 2007Q4 (with difference of 1.7-mbd drawn from inventories). The High Demand Month was February 2008's 88.0-mbd, but consumption fell to 82.2-mbd by January 2009 amidst the depth of the world Recession.

TrendLines Research's global All Liquids Underlying Decline Rates Observed: 2010 - 2.9%; 1970-2009 Avg - 2.7%

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USA Gasoline Price/gallon Components:

July 2010 2011Q1 2011Q4

Demand Destruction Barrier $4.21 $4.29 $4.42

New Car Sales Collapse Threshold $3.35 $3.42 $3.52

Retail Pump Price $2.84 $3.42 target $4.42 target

Wholesale $2.15

Taxes $ .49

Profit $ .20

Metrics:

Contract Crude $1.71

Gross Margin (Retail less Crude) $1.12

Margin (Retail less Wholesale) $ .68

Crack Spread $ .43

the TrendLines Gas Pump
USA New Car Sales Poised to Collapse in Q1 upon $3.42/gallon gasoline ($92/barrel)
July 14th ~ During 2005 & 2006, gasoline touched $3/gallon and fell back. It didn't in 2007Q4, and that helped push the American economy (already anaemic due to the Housing Bubble's assault on family disposable income) into a Technical Recession. It is little known that this price event contributed to the collapse of USA New Car Sales (see BEA chart below) and light vehicle/parts imports from Canada.
It should be of grave concern that the same Pump-Price/GDP ratio underlying that episode of consumer behaviour is being re-approached. The failure of Congress/Obama to address America's structural deficits & mounting national debt is troubling to the global investment community (especially bond vigilantes) and is responsible for the USDollar's secular decline that commenced in May 2004. As shown in the Barrel Meter table above, USD debasement was the largest forcing ($29) among components during the $94/barrel price spike (2005-2008). As the Dollar falls, crude oil pricing rises.

As a Pump-Price/GDP ratio, the New Car Sales Collapse Threshold rises along with GDP over time, and gasoline will attain the same danger zone @ $3.42/gallon ($92/barrel USA contract crude). Our Barrel Meter projects this Price will be surpassed as early as 2011Q1. Fortunately, a second Pump-Price/GDP ratio will halt the current price run @ $4.42/gal in 2011Q4. This Demand Destruction Barrier is the same threshold that reversed the July 2008 price run @ $4.11 per gallon. It demarks the point where substitution and conservation measures by consumers and commerce attains critical mass. A decimation of New Car & Light Truck Sales this Winter would be a major factor in the economy's relapse into double-dip, and as such is reflected in our Recession Meter.

This month's Retail Price of $2.84/gal is comprised of $2.15 Wholesale refinery product & a $ .68 Margin. In turn, Margin is made up of $ .49 Taxes & $ .20 Profit. One would think the retailers are getting very rich, eh. Well, analysis reveals Margin is only up from $ .54 in January Y2k. Taxes & Profit are up from 42 & 13 cents at that time. In other words, nominal Profit today is virtually unchanged.
The post-Y2k Crack Spread (diff betw Wholesale & Contract Crude) for Refiners can be seen ranging from $1.06 & $ .18 ($44 & $8/barrel) and is currently $ .43/gallon ($18/barrel). When this figure drops below $ .48/gallon ($20/barrel), Refiners prefer to produce diesel and import less expensive gasoline. This current lack of profitably is behind the recent shuttering and sell-off of facilities.

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The GasBuddy chart (below) provides higher resolution, but uses WTI ... a (playground) metric which is at times over $8/barrel higher than the import weighted contract crude price as measured by EIA and featured in all TrendLines Research charts & discussion. WTI has exceeded the weekly USA contract crude price by an avg 4.5% in 2010.

July 13 2010 ~ Today's chart replaces EIA's AEO with its IEO 2010, raising the 2035 target to $224 from $204/barrel.

Also revised from our April chart is Freddy Hutter's monthly update of the TrendLines Barrel Meter. It maintains the position the current price run will be halted at $140/barrel in 2011Q4, plunge to $43, and continue a secular price rise to an ultimate $358 in 2034. The current price run is pushed by debasement of the USDollar and reflects investor concern over future Federal Deficit/Debt to GDP ratios. The correction has its foundations in TrendLines confidence in its ominous Demand Destruction Barrier. Price softness will occur during probable Recessions in 2017, 2026 & 2035. The latter event results in a 2035 target of $319/barrel (up from $315). Significant forcings include ever-rising Extraction Costs & the exhaustion of Surplus Capacity in 2023. The Barrel Meter imports data on projected extraction costs, spare production capacity & business cycles from our Peak Scenario 2200 model. A similar analysis for gasoline prices is featured via our Gas Pump presentation.

For comparative purposes, all TrendLines projections are re-based to EIA's import-weighted USA Contract Price (nominal USDollars/barrel), approx 5.3% less than WTI. Its July 2008 peak of $131 was followed by a December bottom of $37/barrel. WTI has been a playground for neophyte speculation for several years and as such WTI can be 12% higher or $6% less than the USA contract price. In June the Contract Avg comprised imported prices ranging from $65/barrel for Mexico Maya Heavy to $79 for Indonesia Minas Light.

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July/2011 - 1-yr Target for USA Contract Crude Price: $120/Barrel

July/2015 - 5-Year Target: $69/barrel

July/2020 - 10-Year Target: $90/barrel

2035 Target (25-Yr): $319/barrel

USA New Car Sales collapse: 2011Q1 @ $92/barrel crude ($3.42/gal gasoline)

Return of G-20 Recessions: 2011Q1 @ $107/barrel

Potential Spike to $100/barrel: 2011Q1

Next Potential Spike past record $131/barrel: 2011Q4

Sustained Prices over $100: 2021Q3

Sustained Prices over record $131: 2023Q1

July 12th ~ The USA Contract Crude Price averaged $70 in June, down $2 over thirty days, but still near double the $37/barrel four year low of December 2008. The decline was mainly attributable to a toning down of media hysterics & reduced speculation/hedging activity. The cost of imported oil ranged from $65/barrel for Mexico Maya Heavy to $79 for Indonesia Minas Light.

Including spikes, crude oil should settle into a general trading range of $74 to $92/barrel thru the balance of Q3/Q4. The present spiking activity is completely detached from fundamentals. As seen in the chart, Prices during the last three seasons was closer to 1.9 x's fundamentals rather than the 1.4 "fair value" norm (dashed yellow line). The obscene record profits for IOCs we predicted for Q1 have been confirmed, and shortly to be announced quarterly earnings should reveal this disturbing trend continued in Q2.

The fundamentals-based Crude Price (yellow line) was $41/barrel in June. The monthly avg for the USA import-weighted contract price exceeded fundamentals by 70% .... an unduly inflated price considering this premium averaged 43% over the last five years. The recent high for this metric was 143% in y2K, yet it was only 37% during the July 2008 price spike. The low point for the factor was 6% (over fundamentals) upon the price collapse at year end (Dec/2008). The current level of bullishness reflected by this metric has not been seen since late 2002.

One factor for the relatively higher Price is renewed speculation/hedging activity. A record of 307 thousand long futures contracts was set in early April, compared to 259k volume in March 2008. A record non-commercial (long/short) contracts volume of 493k was set as well (in early June), much above the 453k level of May 2008. The net volume (longs minus shorts) set a new record of 135k in January, substantially more than 2008's high mark of 100k.

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Tier-1 Scenarios: June 30th ~ This month's revision updates Tier-1 Outlooks by IEA, Peter Wells & our own Hutter Peak Scenario 2200.

Based on 19-model Avg:

          Peak Oil: 94-mbd in 2024

          Post-Peak Production Avg Decline Rate to 2050: 0.7%/yr ('til 2050)

          The year 50% of URR/EUR has been extracted: 2032

          The year flow is under today's 86-mbd: 2041

          The year we virtually run out of oil (excl BTL): 2300 (less than 5mbd)

          Global URR/EUR: 3,897-Gb (1,225-Gb consumed to 2009/12/31 excl 4Gb BTL)

          Global Depletion: 32% of URR (Net Depletion Rate: 1.1%/yr)

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PS-2200 ~ Highlights of June 29 2010 Update:

              Catastrophic Decline Starts in 2051
          The Peak: 102-mbd in 2030
          Post-Peak Production Decline Rates: 0.6% 'til 2050, then 2.8% to 2065

          Worldwide 2010 Surplus Capacity: 7.1-mbd (exhausts in 2023)

          The year flow breaches below 2010 levels: 2052

          URR/EUR: 7,507-Gb (consumed to 2009/12/31: 1229-Gb incl 4Gb BTL)

          Depletion of URR: 16%      Annual Gross Depletion Rate: 0.4% (Net: 0.5%)

          The year 50% of URR consumed: 2113

          The year oil (excl BTL) runs out: 2388

       Underlying Decline Rate Observed YTD 2010: 2.9% (2.5-mbd) of Worldwide All Liquids

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PS-2200's 2010 Underlying Decline Rate Observed: 2.9% (2.5-mbd) of Worldwide All Liquids

June 29th ~ Flow from global New Capacity in 2009 was a record 4.1-mbd. Last year's loss from Underlying Decline Observed (UDO) was a lesser 2.2-mbd (2.6%). Some of the difference was responsible for raising production, but most helped raise Global Surplus Capacity to 6.3-mbd by year end. The current 7-yr trend for installed New Capacity is 3.5-mbd/yr. Based on present URR Estimates and subject to capital availability, Industry can maintain this new installation activity level until inevitable resource constraints begin to restrict new development (dashed blue line in chart inset) after 2050.

My March 2009 analysis revealed that Global UDO first became significant during the 1970 American Recession. Chart#4 illustrates long term global annual UDO, but it is the UDRO inset (annual rates) that is most instructive. I have found that the Underlying Decline Rate Observed exhibits a tendency to ebb and flow. It became apparent that these cyclical (8.5-yr) crests correlate with all six USA Recessions of the past four decades. These cycle tops appear to reflect reduced EOR activity during economic contractions, no doubt due to capital & cash flow limitations amid a reduced Demand environment.

These crests (orange line) further coincide somewhat with depletion rate peaks of the major petroleum provinces: the Persian basin (Iraq/Iran) in 1977, USA/Russia All Liquids in 1984, the North Sea in 2001 & the present deterioration in Mexico.

The highest annual surge was 6.3% of All Liquids production in 1984 in the wake of the double-dip 80's Recessions. The recent cycle top of the 2001 Recession was followed by an UDRO trough of 1.9% in 2006, then the 3.1% high of the 2008 Recession. The loss factor is projected to bottom @ 2.6% in 2012 before its next cycle high (3.5%) during a probable 2017 Recession. Extrapolation of the general trend (including its 8.5 year cycles) should see UDRO rise to 4.7% by 2050.

Analysis by TrendLines Research reveals that over the last 40 years, UDRO has averaged 2.7% annually. From 1970, this necessitated the construction of 119-mbd of new facilities: 77 to address UDO & 42-mbd to raise Extraction Capacity from 51 in 1969 to 93-mbd by last December. In short, the oil sector has been adding 3-mbd/yr ... or a new Saudi Arabia every three years for four decades! Terminal global production decline will commence upon Annual New Capacity no longer exceeding the UDO trend line. This intersection is set to occur in 2031.

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the TrendLines Gas Pump ~ New Car Sales Poised to Collapse in Q3 ~ April 8 2010 ~ During 2005 & 2006, gasoline touched $3/gallon and fell back. It didn't in 2007Q4, and that helped push the American economy (already anaemic due to the Housing Bubble's attack on family disposable income) into a Technical Recession. That's 'cuz this price event contributed to the collapse of USA New Car Sales (see BEA chart below) and light vehicle/parts imports from Canada.
It should be of grave concern that the same Gasoline Price/GDP ratio underlying that episode of consumer behaviour is being re-approached. The failure of Congress/Obama to address America's structural deficits & mounting national debt is troubling to the global investment community and is the background for the USDollar's secular decline (agin petroleum trading partners) that commenced in May 2004. As shown in the Barrel Meter table above, USD debasement was the largest forcing ($28) among components during the $94/barrel price spike (2005-2008). As the Dollar falls, crude oil pricing rises.

The New Car Sales Collapse Threshold is a ratio rises with GDP over time, and gasoline will attain the same danger zone @ $3.37/gallon ($91/barrel USA contract crude). Our Barrel Meter projects this Price will be surpassed as early as 2010Q3. Fortunately a second Gas Price/GDP ratio will halt the current price run @ $4.40/gal in 2011Q3. This Demand Destruction Barrier is the same threshold that reversed the July 2008 price run @ $4.11 per gallon.

This month's Retail Price of $2.78/gal is comprised of $2.16 Wholesale refinery product & a $ .62 Margin. In turn, Margin's made up of $ .48 Taxes & $ .14 Profit. One would think the retailers are getting very rich, eh. Well, analysis reveals Margin is only up from $ .54 in January Y2k. Taxes & Profit are up from 42 & 13 cents at that time. In other words, nominal Profit today is virtually unchanged.
The post-Y2k Crack Spread (diff betw Wholesale & Contract Crude) for Refiners can be seen ranging from $1.06 & $ .18 ($44 & $8/barrel) and is currently $ .35/gallon ($15/barrel). When this figure drops below $ .48/gallon ($20/barrel), Refiners prefer to produce diesel and import less expensive gasoline. This current lack of profitably is behind the recent shuttering and sell-off of facilities.

Tier-2 Scenarios: March 31st ~ The UK's ITPOES (Industry Taskforce Peak Oil Energy Strategy) released its second report. Abandoning its own underlying science, it is relegated to Tier-2 as purely a political document. Silent since 2004, BP has changed its peak to 99-mbd in 2030 from 90 in 2015. With 2010 on pace to set a new annual record, the outlook by Jeff Rubin and its declaration of 2008 as Peak year is absent and downgraded to the Invalidated Scenarios Archive below.

Members of the Tier-2 & Hail Mary presentation exhibit one or more deemed flaws:

Stale Dated: EIA-Caruso 2005, Lynch 1996

Poor reconciliation with URR - Low projected Peak and/or overly aggressive post-peak decline rate results in a future "dogleg" to exhaust remaining resource: Koppelaar 2009 (2030) & Robelius 2007 (2050)

Overly optimistic medium term targets - 2014 is only five years away. Megaproject analysis suggests flow rate will be 90-mbd. Considering practitioner differences wrt Surplus Capacity & Underlying Decline Observed, potential flow could be 97.1-mbd albeit highly improbable. Outlooks with deemed unachievable targets: Brandt-Farrell 2008 (105.2mbd by 2014), IHS 2007 (104), EIA-Wood Y2k (103), Smith 2007 (101), Lynch 1996 (100), Wood Mackenzie 2007 (99.5), Robelius (98.5) & Leonard-Kuwait Energy 2007 (97.5).

Hail Mary Scenarios - Practitioner has a more conservative outlook that has been featured in Tier-1: EIA-Caruso 2005, EU WETO/POLES 2007 (reference) & Royal Dutch Shell 2008 (blueprint)

Mathematical Models - Lack robustness to depict inferior non-conventional flows: Carlson 2007

Inadequate robustness or Conjecture-based: Hirsch 2009, Lynch 1996, Odell 2009, ITPOES 2010 & BP 2010

Invalidated Outlooks Archive: March 31st ~ With 2010 on pace to surpass the annual record, the three scenarios wrongly declaring 2008 as Peak Year have been downgraded to the Invalidated Outlooks Archive from their previous status: Kjell Aleklett 2009, Colin Campbell 2009 (Tier-1) & Jeff Rubin 2009 (Tier-2),

Invalidated Outlooks in general forecast low Peak Rates and/or harsh post-peak Decline Rates. Typically they are constructed on URR/EUR platforms less than the geology-based Worst Case Scenario.

Current Production exceeds Outlook Peak Rate: Hubbert 1956 (34mbd), Matt Simmons (84.4), Bakhtiari (81), EWG-LBST (81), Aleklett (85) , Rubin (85) & Campbell (66 & 85)

Outlook's Peak Date surpassed: Hubbert-'56 (Y2k), Hubbert-'74 (1995), (Duncan-Youngquist (2007), Matt Simmons (2007), Bakhtiari (2006), EWG-LBST (2006), Aleklett (2008) & Rubin (2008) & Campbell (1989 & 2008)

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Linearization Method: URR/EUR Comparisons
Geo/Tech Method:

4,775-Gb All Liquids (incl BTL) 7,689-Gb

2,000-Gb Regular Conventional Crude 1,914-Gb

270-Gb Saudi Arabian Crude
900-Gb

300-Gb NGL-GTL-Ref/Gain 1,630-Gb

310-Gb Bitumen/X-Heavy-CTL-Kerogen 3,858-Gb

225-Gb Deep Sea & Arctic 244-Gb

Nov 14th ~ Linearization analysis is a guiding counterweight to our geology/technology based Estimates of Ultimate Recoverable Resource (URR/EUR). When compared, All Liquids succumbs to a 3,563-Gb differential, mostly attributed to Bitumen, GTL, CTL & Kerogen not yet reflecting their potential flow rates. OTOH, this shortfall is somewhat mitigated by the tainted BTL influence. Biofuels-to-liquids are not included in our URR tally, but its 2-mbd flow is indeed reflected in All Liquids production data.

Based on these linearizations, the world won't run out of light sweet oil (RCC) until Year 2089, and there's enuf of the other stuff to take us to 2146.

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Sept 15th ~ This update of Colin Campbell's Depletion Model tracks two decades of revisions. Its forecasts of Peak Year have ranged from 1989 to 2012. In fact, December marks the 20th anniversary of Campbell's initial All Liquids declaration that oil had Peaked. His Peak Rate spans the virgin call of a 66-mbd sub-peak (to 1979) to last year's 97-mbd. The underlying All Liquids URR estimates range from 1575-Gb in 1989 to 2900-Gb.

The new chart excludes Campbell's 1991, 1996, 1997 & 1998 projections as those studies have been determined to forecast RCC (Regular Conventional Crude) ... not All Liquids. Campbell's current forecast for RCC can be compared to the only three other such projections for light sweet here.
The highlighted years of distinction are: 2008 (highest peak 97mbd), 2002 (2900-Gb URR high), 2009 (current update), 2004 (Colin Campbell's dark days call: 80mbd peak coming in 2006) & 1989 (Campbell's initial 66-mbd scenario which declared that All Liquids would never break the 1979 record).
Because the Depletion Model newsletter graphic ends in 2050, it was unapparent that many of his early All Liquids projections failed to exhaust Campbell's designated URR. The expanded post-2050 view in the TrendLines chart exposes the methodology errors of the Depletion Model in 1999, Y2k, 2002, 2003 & 2004 via compensating plateaus or "doglegs". In short, these particular production profiles employed peaks that were too low and/or decline rates that were too harsh.
In the dark days of 2004 episode, it seems that Campbell was unduly influenced by zealot members of the McPeakster fraternity. He slashed 500-Gb from his URR estimate, reducing it from 2900-Gb to 2400. He advanced his All Liquids Peak from 2012 to 2006. Peak Rate was reduced to 80-mbd from 87-mbd.

Sept 9th 2009 ~ Chart reveals major new oil sources as well as nations with major decline.

theOilDrum Peak

With their misinformation agenda revealed, hits are down over 50% at theOilDrum this year!

A hijack of the site by the lunatic fringe is virtually complete...

common sense prevails

June 1at ~ In 1989, McPeaksters proclaimed that All Liquids would never exceed that year's 66-mbd flow rate.

They repeated the declaration in 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Y2k 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 & 2007

July 2008 production smashed monthly records with a new marker of 86.7-mbd

It is indeed ironic that as McPeaksters announced for the 20th time last Summer that 2008 was Peak "for sure" ... annual flow rate was a full 20-mbd over their virgin declaration!
Pundits at theOilDrum, PeakOil.com, Jeff Rubin & forecaster extraordinaire Matt Simmons were the main originators/disseminators of the disruptive 2007/2008 rumours that both the giant Ghawar well & general Saudi Arabia production were in Terminal Decline.

TrendLines Research URR Highlights

Oil Initially in Place (OIIP): 19-Tb.

URR avg: 3,785-Gb (doubled since 1992)

Remaining Resource: 2,582-Gb (doubled since Y2k)

Remaining Resource/Annual Production Ratio: 86 (record low of 43 in 1996)

Proved Reserves: 1,131-Gb (double since 1982)

Past Consumption: 1,203-Gb (to 2009/2/28)

March 22nd (rev 2009/3/24) ~ Today's version introduces URR studies by BGR of Germany & Peter Wells of the UK. It updates figures from IEA, Laherrère, BP, Koppelaar, Campbell, OGJ, World Oil, EWG/LBST & my own (Freddy Hutter's Peak Scenario 2300). The estimate by WEC has been deleted due to its redundancy to BGR. Samuel Foucher's linearization methodology is deleted in favour of a similar but more robust model by Jean Laherrère.

Chart-2 compares growth rates of the 21-model AVG with OGJ & BP. The recent pricing regime fuelled favourable economics of previously thought fringe contingent resources. Non-conventionals have been growing at a 124-Gb/yr pace (4.9%) since 1996. This far surpasses RCC's growth rate of 30-Gb/yr (2.3%) from 1957-1995.

URR ain't growing like the good ol'e days. Unsustainable crude prices drove discoveries, exploration, and conversion of sub-commercial (contingent) resources over to the economic side of the ledger. But sub $50/barrel pricing has been a real dampener of that headiness. Based on our 21-model Avg, 2009 is on pace for a 165-Gb augment to URR, compared to 290-Gb last year. Annual augments to URR have exceeded Annual Consumption (30-Gb in 2009) since 1997. There are 2,582-Gb (billion barrels) of oil resource left...

This explains the recent hiatus from exploration. The Remaining Resource/Annual Production ratio is generational record 86 in 2009. Back in 1996, available Resource would have serviced only 43 years of current production. This ration is a guide to long term supply chain infrastructure needs. The historic Avg is 61 yrs. A similar metric, the Reserves/Production Ratio is currently 38 and has been in this vicinity for three decades.

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Evidenced in brown, green & blue lines in the chart, the terminal production decline scenarios by Stuart Staniford & Ace at theOilDrum illustrate the dangers of listening to agenda-driven pundits...

Pundits at theOilDrum, along with forecaster extraordinaire Matt Simmons were the main originators/disseminators of the disruptive 2007/2008 rumours that Ghawar & KSA went into terminal decline in 2006. Their common error was inability to distinguish real decline from production decline. The latter is not probable 'til 2024, in large part due to Aramco's unrivalled Surplus Capacity.

Feb 10 2009 ~ A review of select Crude Supply Outlooks:

Sadad al Husseini's 2008 target was overly generous, a result of Saudi Aramco's unpredictable compliance with OPEC-mandated quota restrictions. He foresees a 2020-2023 Peak Plateau of 10.9-mbd.

The current Scenario-2200 Outlook projects a 2014-2023 Peak Plateau of 10-mbd based on a much reduced 212-Gb URR.

theOilDrum targets from both 2007 & 2008 would be hysterically low, had the Kingdom not shuttered capacity in substantial fashion due to the aforementioned OPEC cuts. As Aramco resumes normality in 2012, the growing divergence will again become apparent.

click chart for more

Feb 9 2009 ~ Saudi Arabia's Maximum Sustainable Capacity (MSC) will be a record 13.05-mbd in 2009. Enjoy it. Peak Oil has arrived in the Kingdom. From 2004 to 2007, Saudi Aramco had bettered its self set targets. It didn't happen in 2008. Fortunately, the miss was due to outside forces! By June, Saudi supply had attained last year's goal of 9.5-mbd and was on the verge of busting the nation's 2006 All Liquids record. But within 30 days, Contract Crude was selling at a record $134/barrel and Demand Destruction was kicking in. By year end, OPEC members had agreed to pare down global quota by 4.2-mbd.

In compliance, Saudi production was ratcheted down to 8.5-mbd and the 2008 year-end targets set back in 2004, 2006, 2007 all came up shy. A similar circumstance occurred in 2006 albeit not as dramatic. Fortunately, these are merely asterisk events, and not a sign of terminal production decline.

click chart for more

Sept 11 2008 ~ Remember this July 11th Chart? It shows USA Contract Crude peaking at $134/barrel. But while the poster boy for Crude Irrational Exuberance, Jeff Rubin of CIBC World Markets, was irresponsibly promoting the rationale for $200 Crude & $1.75/litre gasoline, our assessment of oil's fundamentals-based cost was a mere $109/barrel.

Neophyte pundits fail to comprehend the effects of rising energy costs wrt the Global Economy. Including Rubin, they claimed their sky high targets (from $200 - $600) were "sustainable". This reflected poor comprehension of Demand Destruction and an inept Economic model. Since crude rose above $70/barrel, energy costs have dampened the GDP growth rate and have an equivalency to rising Fed Rates.

June 10 2008 ~ Atmospheric co2 will Peak at 408-ppm in 2025 based on analysis of depletion of fossil fuel resources by TrendLines Research.

Peaks for Oil, Nat'l Gas & Coal are poised for 2016, 2025 & 2035 respectively.

Remember the 800-ppm CO2 extrapolation used by IPCC-2001 & Al Gore?

That mistaken scenario was based on 2 flaws: extrapolation of the 1998 el niño & Y2k solar flare maximum events; and IPCC emission scenarios that grossly overestimated available fossil fuel resources by five-fold. Models failed to acknowledge the finite limits of oil, coal & gas.

click chart for details

Dec 27 2007 ~ Colin Campbell represents a camp of FEAR mongers that would have the public believe the globe is running out of oil.

It is a fraud and deception facilitated by groups like theOilDrum and PeakOil.com

The reality is that Campbell and ASPO have stealthily backdated new field discoveries and reserve growth since 1995.

The yellow top ups show the discoveries since 1995. The hashed yellow bars show what the ASPO Discoveries Chart would look like w/o the deceptive backdating.

The ASPO-IE URR has grown grown from 1650-Gb in 1995 to 2500-Gb today.

By ASPO's own figures, less than half of the oil worldwide has been consumed.

click chart for details

Dec 8 2007 ~ The trend for Global co2 reveals a potential 680-ppm in 2100. Similarly, Mauna Loa data points to atmospheric concentration rising to 540-ppm in 2100.

These long term trends shield underlying data showing that the growth rate of GHG is plummeting and both co2 measurement are also exhibiting dampened pace of growth.

The foundation for this sea change is the probable 2025 Peak in fossil fuel emissions. TrendLines Research's target for CO2 is 425-ppm in 2025; receding to 348 by 2100.

click chart for details

zoom in via <Ctrl +> & zoom out via <Ctrl -> in IE7 browsers (new bottom right tool)

Feb 2007 ~ This graph is the new battle flag of theOilDrum forum. Yup, all the marbles on one call. Remember them? They are the pundit alarmists (Mainstream Media calls them wacko's) that in October 2004 published that the USA was entering an economic Recession. Oops. Well, they're back...

TOD's February 2007 prediction:

The green line shows that Saudi Arabia crude supply of 8.7-mbd of January 2007 is headed to 6.5-mbd by Autumn 2011 ... or as low as 4-mbd!

They published it the exact same day that Colin Campbell published a graph showing Saudi Arabia won't decline until 2025 & he changed the ASPO Peak Oil Date to 2011 ...

So, who has got it very wrong? TOD or ASPO? Let's see if TOD can do better than Matt Simmons, eh!

Note - Saudi Arabia's supply output target for Autumn 2011 is 10.5-mbd ... right off the top of his graph!

Mar 13 2009 Update: To the chagrin of TheOilDrum McPeaksters, KSA extraction rose from 8.6 to 9.5-mbd by June 2008, at which time Saudi Aramco was forced to submit to OPEC quota restrictions. Even after these production cuts, KSA is still far above the 7.2-mbd predicted for March 2009 by TOD's Stuart Staniford. More on KSA

Matt Simmons, forecaster extraordinaire!

PEAK TOD-USA & TOD-Europe ... theOilDrum Hijacked by McDoomers !!


TheOilDrum's counter says it all: TOD has Peaked. Several weeks ago, i warned the new doomster Moderator (Leanan) that the forum was collapsing in remarkably similar fashion to YahooEnergyResources, a discussion Group hijacked by the McDoomers back in 2004.

Feb 2007 ~ Peak Oil Theory has been replaced as focus at theOilDrum by 100's of ad nauseum daily posts on DieOFF, the coming USA Depression, pending collapse of the world's currencies & hate posts against their President, Congress, the Federal Reserve, all agencies' statistics, the IMF, the UN & anybody that doesn't agree that Oil peaked in 2005. I predicted in January that the conversation was about to deteriorate to discussing human poop for fertilizer use by their nihilist posters that moved to the mountains and are awaiting the anti-christ and the Global Warming induced Great Flood. Well, last week "humanure" was the topic of the day by the lunatic fringe that has hijacked that once excellent forum. It's a cult that gleefully awaits the the collapse of the USA with a desire to turn the evil Empire into an agrarian society in Old Order Amish/Mennonites fashion with no electricity, planes or cars. After almost 2 years, i'm oudda there ~ TOD has PEAKED...

Pew Centre on Climate Change, 2004

Jan 16 2007 ~ In Dec 2003, Samsam Bakhtiari of Iran proposed via his WOCAP-2 Model that Peak Oil would be upon us in 2006 with a Peak Rate of 81-mbd. We see in this graph that he miscalculated by 4-mbd (compared to blue line actual). But now he is telling supporters that his projection excluded some oils (proc gains). If that was his intent, his pre-forecast baseline (prior to 2004) should match the RED line. If All Liquids was indeed his intent, his Black line should mirror the yellow ASPO line and the green 2003 IEA line. U be the Judge...

OTOH, Mr Bakhtiari has the sole model that suggests a pre-2010 Peak. Can he hit it out of the park for redemption? Stay tuned ...

spe classifications

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Send email to Freddy Hutter with questions or comments about this web site Copyright © 1989-2010 TrendLines Research ~ Last modified: July 27, 2010

Send email to Freddy Hutter with questions or comments about this web site
Copyright © 1989-2010 TrendLines Research ~ Last modified: July 27, 2010