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TrendLines Research ...
Long
Term Perspectives by Freddy Hutter
~
Triple
Crown! Aug
5th ~ Freddy Hutter is Pleased to Announce that PeakOil.com has Banned Several of Us from Posting our Comments &
Charts. Added to similar Mass Bans at theOilDrum.com &
EnergyResources--YahooGroup, this Marks the 3rd Agenda-Driven
Forum to Shield its Members from the Realities of Peak Oil.
This Summer Marks the 20th Consecutive Year
of Failed Peak Peak Oil Predictions. To their Detriment,
All 3 Forums Encourage Elements of the Lunatic Fringe to
Disseminate a Cornucopia of Nonsense Relating to the Imminent
Collapse of Crude Extraction, the USA Economy, the Dollar ...
and Climate Patterns.
~ Update of the TrendLines Scenario of Peaks in Fossil Fuel
Emissions. Atmospheric co2 Concentration
Projection to 2100: the Peak will be
408ppm
in 2025
~ Update
of Campbell/ASPO Stealth Discoveries chart
~
TrendLines Research Projects Peak of
425ppm
in Atmospheric
co2
in
2025
... not the
800
in Al Gore's Scary Graph
~
Feature: TrendLines Presentations to the
2007 USA (NPC) Nat'l Petroleum Council's Global Oil & Gas Study
Scroll
down for this month'sTrendLines charts ~ click graph for more
background or topic venue
Tier-1 Scenarios:
Jan 31st ~
This month's Tier-1 revision introduces the Richard Miller
Outlook & updates our own
Hutter Peak Scenario 2200
Based on 20-model Avg:
Peak Oil: 92-mbd in 2022
Post-Peak Production Avg Decline Rate to
2050: 0.7%/yr
The year 50% of URR/EUR has been extracted: 2039
The year flow
is under today's 85-mbd: 2040
The year we run out of oil: 2287 (less than 5mbd)
Global URR/EUR:
4,415-Gb
Global Depletion: 28%
of URR (net rate: 0.9%/yr)
click chart for
more...
Jan 30th
~
PS-2200:
Underlying Decline Peaked
@ 3.1%
in
2008
Recession
The Peak:
100-mbd in 2030
Post-Peak Production Decline Rate:
1.7% ('til 2050)
Worldwide Surplus Capacity: 6.3-mbd (exhausts in 2025)
The year flow breaches 2010 levels:
2046
URR/EUR: 7,584-Gb (consumed to
2009/12/31: 1229-Gb incl 4Gb BTL)
Underlying Decline Rate Observed for
2009
All Liquids
-
2.7% (2.28-mbd) Worldwide
click chart for more...
PS-2200's 2035
Outlook:
Jan 30th ~
This higher
resolution of
PS-2200
illustrates two
hypothetical scenarios:
(a)
an ultra conservative All Liquids trajectory with an apparent 88-mbd
Peak in 2013, declining to 28-mbd by 2035 (hashed
lime line),
assuming an Avg 3.4% Underlying Decline Rate Observed. As a
Worst Case Scenario, it assumes that the oil & gas sector will never
augment the announced-to-date MegaProjects.
(b)
the more probable production profile whereby the present Megaproject
trend of 3.5-mbd/yr is deemed to continue unabated 'til resource
constraints impede new additions after 2044 (post-2012
solid lime line).
End-of-Year Supply surges to a 100-mbd Peak in 2030.
In
practical terms, history (since 1970) has shown that the pessimistic
projection line incrementally rises thru time to meet the growth
trend line. Hence The Wedge shown continually gets
pushed into the future.
Viewing the future by our measure,
75-mbd of new capacity will be required to attain our 2035 target of
100-mbd. 15-mbd of this will raise production from 85 today to
100-mbd. The other 60-mbd will address UDO loss over the next 21
years. Added to the 78-Gb to cover 1970-2009, we calculate a
total 138-Gb of Capacity will be dedicated to this loss phenomenon
over the full six decades.
Flow
from global New Capacity in 2009 was a record 4.1-mbd. This
year's loss from Underlying Decline Observed (UDO) was a lesser
2.28-mbd. Some of the difference was responsible for raising
production, but most helped raise Global Surplus Capacity to 6.3-mbd
by year end. The current 7-yr trend for installed New Capacity
is 3.5-mbd/yr. Based on present URR Estimates and subject to
capital availability, Industry can maintain this new installation
activity level until inevitable resource constraints begin to
restrict new development (blue
line in chart inset)
in 2045.
My
March 2009 analysis revealed that Global UDO
first became significant during the 1970 American Recession.
Chart#3 illustrates
long term global annual UDO, but it is the UDRO inset
(annual rates) that is most instructive. I have found that the
Underlying Decline Rate Observed exhibits a tendency to ebb and
flow. Further study in October revealed that these cyclical
crests correlate with all six USA Recessions of the past four
decades. These cycle tops appear to reflect reduced EOR
activity during economic contractions, no doubt due to Capital/Cash
Flow limitations, as well as reduced Demand realities.
These crests (orange
line) further
coincide with depletion rate peaks of the major petroleum
provinces: the Persian basin (Iraq/Iran) in 1977, USA/Russia
All Liquids in 1984, the North Sea in 2001 & the present
deterioration in Mexico.
The highest annual surge was 6.3% of All Liquids production
in 1984 in the wake of the double-dip 80's recessions. The
recent cycle top of the 2001 Recession was followed by an UDRO
trough of 1.9% in 2006, then the 3.1% high of the 2008 Recession.
The loss factor was 2.7% in 2009, and is projected to bottom @ 2.6%
in 2012 before its next cycle high (3.7%) during a probable 2017
Recession. Extrapolation of the general trend (including its
8.5 year cycles) should see UDRO rise to 5% by 2050.
Over
the last 40 years, UDRO has averaged 2.7% annually. From 1970,
this necessitated the construction of 119-mbd of new facilities:
78 to address UDO & 41-mbd to raise Extraction Capacity from 51 in
1969 to 92-mbd today. In short, the oil sector has been adding
3-mbd/yr ... or a new Saudi Arabia every three years! Terminal
Global Production Decline will commence upon
Annual New Capacity
no longer exceeding the
UDO trend line.
This intersection is set to occur in 2031.
click chart for more...
Jan 10 2010 ~ Yesterday
we expanded our
Barrel Meter presentation to
introduce a 25 Year Target for Crude Price. This was
accomplished by importing data on Extraction Costs & Surplus
Capacity from our Peak Scenario 2200 into the model. The
result is a projected $218/barrel in 2035.
Last month
our première Price Forecast compilation chart introduced Adam Sieminski's price study, it mirrors our
sentiment that current crude prices are poised for at least a 15%
downward correction to better reflect underlying fundamentals.
The
chief energy economist of Deutsche Bank (Washington)
projects contract prices to reach $182/barrel by 2035.
Seeing the global Recession subsiding
more quickly, IEA bumped up its 2015
forecast seven bucks to $73 this week. Their long term targets
mostly skim a tad below Deutsche Bank, rising to $158 by 2030.
EIA released its
2010 AEO in mid-December. Converse to IEA, its path straddles above the
Deutsche Bank course, rising to $203 in 2035.
For a reference point, we've inserted
our Demand Destruction Barrier (DDB). It demarks the
apparent Oil/GDP ratio where rising prices eventually attain
critical mass leading to sea changes in conservation and
substitution. This invisible ceiling halted the epic 2008
spike at $131/barrel, and should thwart the current price run at
$157 in 2014Q4, followed again by a very major correction, according
to the
Hutter Barrel Meter.
Disagreement that such a constraint
mechanism exists separates conventional price forecasting from those
within the McPeakster fraternity. For illustration purposes,
we include their three showcase predictions to demonstrate the
divergence. Monthly updates by a "joker" over at theOilDrum
(aka Ace) have been trimmed recently, but still warn the cult
following of a $179/barrel spike within 40 months! From here,
we deteriorate to contributions by two members of the
Lunatic Fringe: Jeff Rubin (ex-CIBC
World Markets) foresees "sustained pricing" of $205 in 2012 &
Matt Simmons (investment banker) sports infamous speculation of
$300 by 2014 & $546/barrel ($600 WTI) in "much less than 20 years".
click chart for more...
Today, we're pleased to introduce this enhancement of the Barrel
Meter. By incorporating surplus capacity data from our Peak
Scenario 2200 study, we are able to expand the model's Price
projections to 2035:
Jan 9th ~
The USA Contract Crude Price averaged $71 in December, down $3 from
November, and almost double the $37/barrel four year low of December
2008.
Including spikes, Crude
Oil should settle into a
general trading range of $60
to $76/barrel thru Q1/Q2.
The present spiking activity is completely detached from fundamentals.
As seen in the chart, Prices during the last three seasons have been hugging the
Unconstrained Spike Potential line (dashed
red line). An $11/barrel downward correction
to $60 appears imminent.
With December's fundamentals-based Crude Price
(yellow
line)
at $41/barrel, the contract price averaged 1.7 x's fundamentals.
This is down slightly from 1.8 in July, but for both figures point
to unduly inflated prices considering the average margin over the
last five years: 1.4 x's fundamentals. The high for this
metric was 2.1 in y2K, and it slipped to 1.6 during the July 2008
spike on its way to "0" upon the collapse later that year.
These unsupported Prices reflect
relative bullishness not seen since 2002. The current spike
activity, which began in May, seems to have at least some foundation
in mostly false rumours rampant within the futures fraternity of a colder than average Winter approaching.
However, there has been no basis for this within recognized seasonal
forecasts. This suggests manipulative speculation behaviour.
As reality becomes evident, the Monthly Contract Price should slide
to $60, before resuming its secular uptrend.
Another factor for the relatively
higher Price could rest with renewed speculation/hedging activity. A
new record of 285 thousand long futures contracts was set in late
October,
breaking the March 2008 volume. When we add total
non-commercial contracts, the long/short volume has just passed the
former record May 2008 mark.
The TrendLines
Research price targets are based on our projections of future Avg
Extraction Cost, Currency Debasement, Hedging Activity,
National Inventories & Surplus Capacity. The Media
Noise-du-Jour component reflects its cyclical nature.
Jan/2011 -
TrendLines Research 1-yr Target for USA Contract Crude Price:
$75/Barrel
Jan/2015
-
5-Year Target: $156/barrel
Jan/2020
- 10-Year Target: $173/barrel
June/2035 - 25-Year Target: $218/barrel
Re-collapse of USA New Car Sales:
2011Q4 @ $93/barrel crude & $3.28/gal gasoline
Return of G-20
Recessions:
2012Q2 @ $104/barrel
crude
Potential Spike to $100/barrel:
2011Q2
Sustained Prices over $100:
2012Q1
Next Potential Spike to
record $131/barrel:
2012Q2
Sustained Prices over
record $131:
2013Q1
click
chart for more
Using the proper historic narrow definition
of RCC, these
production profiles exclude NGL, processing gains & the
non-conventionals (Bitumen, X-heavy, Arctic, Deep Sea, Biofuels,
GTL, CTL & Kerogen). Hence, we have excluded
"conventional" projections by Guseo,
Korpela, Laherrère & Walsh.
Regular Conventional Crude (RCC) peaked
@ 68-mbd in 2005, and terminal decline has brought extraction down
to 62-mbd in 2009. It comprises only 74% of All Liquids production
today, and it is clear that NGL & the non-conventionals play an
ever increasing role. The
PS-2200 model projects RCC will be a mere 58% of 2030 All
Liquids, and will fall below 50% in 2044 ... a
significant threshold for posterity.
Regular Conventional Crude Scenarios:
Nov 30th ~ There have been only 4 modellers worldwide
that study Regular Conventional Crude ... the light sweet
oil: Albert Bartlett (USA), Colin
Campbell (Ireland), M King Hubbert (USA) & TrendLines'
own Freddy Hutter (Yukon Canada).
Hubbert's initial projection
commenced the discourse on Peak Oil in 1956. It's Y2k Peak
Date was intuitive but the model was flawed with its lowly 1,250-Gb
estimate of URR. His 1974 update boosted resource to 2-Tb,
a figure that is still relevant by modern standards, but the path met its demise in a
collision with OPEC the following year...
A later effort was the forecast of a 73-mbd
peak in 2004 by the 1998 Bartlett
model. In fact, RCC crossed the midpoint of its URR a year later in
October 2005.
Jean Laherrère & Colin
Campbell have been the sector's most stalwart peak oil practitioners.
Both have shared their annual analysis for two decades.
Campbell's 2009 Depletion Model foresees a continuation of RCC's
dramatic 2.4% production decline until 2030. Conversely, the Hutter Peak Scenario 2200, the
only other current profile, projects a softer 0.3% Decline Rate to 2033.
On the longer term, whereas Campbell predicts annual Decline will soften after 2030,
Hutter sees major resource constraints, especially after 2042, resulting in serious deterioration
that culminates
in an R/P 9 environment.
2010 is the
watershed. If Campbell's hypothesis of continued aggressive decline is
in play, RCC will dwindle to below 61.0-mbd next year. OTOH, if RCC stays
above that threshold, then the Hutter premise is superior. And by
extension, the scenario with the correct interpretation will be
likely be rewarded with the more accurate All Liquids projection
as well.
click chart for
more
click chart for
more
Linearization Method:
URR/EUR Comparisons
Geo/Tech Method:
4,775-Gb
All Liquids
(incl
BTL)
7,689-Gb
2,000-Gb
Regular
Conventional Crude
1,914-Gb
270-Gb
Saudi Arabian Crude
900-Gb
300-Gb
NGL-GTL-Ref/Gain
1,630-Gb
310-Gb
Bitumen/X-Heavy-CTL-Kerogen
3,858-Gb
225-Gb
Deep Sea & Arctic
244-Gb
Nov 14th ~ Linearization analysis is a
guiding counterweight to our geology/technology based Estimates of
Ultimate Recoverable Resource (URR/EUR). When compared, All
Liquids succumbs to a 3,563-Gb differential, mostly attributed to
Bitumen, GTL, CTL & Kerogen not yet reflecting their potential flow
rates.
OTOH, this shortfall is somewhat mitigated by the tainted BTL influence.
Biofuels-to-liquids are not included in our URR tally, but its 2-mbd
flow is indeed
reflected in All Liquids production data.
Based on these
linearizations, the world won't run out of light sweet oil (RCC)
until Year 2089, and there's enuf of the other stuff to take us to
2146.
Tier-2 Scenarios:
Oct 31st ~
Faults
within this month's update of the Rembrandt Koppelaar Outlook
cause its downgrade (again) to Tier-2 status. Its failure to
reconcile with minimum recognized URR estimates place its production
profile on the wrong side of the
Worst Case Scenario
... joining similarly deficient efforts by Jeff Rubin &
Fredrik Robelius.
Members of the
Tier-2 & Hail Mary presentation exhibit one or
more deemed flaws.
click chart for more & Tier-2 footnotes
click chart for more
Sept 15th ~
This update of
Colin Campbell's Depletion Model tracks two
decades of revisions. Its forecasts of Peak Year have ranged from
1989 to 2012. In fact, December marks the 20th anniversary of
Campbell's initial All Liquids declaration that oil had Peaked.
His Peak Rate spans the virgin call of a 66-mbd sub-peak (to 1979) to last
year's 97-mbd. The underlying All Liquids URR estimates
range from 1575-Gb in 1989 to 2900-Gb.
The new chart excludes Campbell's 1991, 1996, 1997 &
1998 projections as those studies have been determined to forecast RCC (Regular Conventional Crude)
... not All Liquids. Campbell's current forecast for RCC
can be compared to the only three other such projections for light sweet
here.
The highlighted years of distinction are:
2008 (highest peak 97mbd), 2002
(2900-Gb URR high), 2009 (current update), 2004 (Colin Campbell's dark days call: 80mbd
peak coming in 2006) & 1989 (Campbell's initial 66-mbd scenario
which declared that All Liquids would never break the 1979 record).
Because the Depletion Model newsletter graphic ends in 2050, it
was unapparent that many of his early All Liquids projections
failed to exhaust Campbell's designated URR. The expanded post-2050 view in the
TrendLines chart exposes
the methodology errors of the Depletion Model in 1999, Y2k, 2002, 2003 &
2004 via compensating plateaus or
"doglegs".
In short, these particular production profiles employed peaks that were
too low and/or decline rates that were too harsh.
In the dark days of 2004 episode, it seems that Campbell
was unduly influenced by zealot members of the McPeakster fraternity.
He slashed 500-Gb from his URR estimate, reducing it from 2900-Gb to 2400.
He advanced his All Liquids
Peak from 2012 to 2006. Peak Rate was reduced to 80-mbd
from 87-mbd.
Sept 11th ~ A new
Annual Supply record of 85.4-mbd was set
in 2008. The year-to-date pace of 2009 Extraction
(to Sept 11) is 83.7-mbd.
The
Quarterly
Supply record of 85.8-mbd was
set in 2008Q1.
July 2008
continues its distinction for the all time global Monthly Supply record: 86.6-mbd,
2.4-mbd above today's monthly pace of 84.2-mbd.
The
Quarterly record for Demand
of
86.9-mbd
was set
in 2007Q4
(with difference of 1.7-mbd drawn from inventories). High
Demand Month is February 2008's 87.7-mbd.
TrendLines
Research's All Liquids Underlying
Decline Rates Observed in 2009: 3.2% Worldwide &
2.5% in Saudi Arabia
click
chart for more
Sept 9th 2009 ~ Chart reveals major
new oil sources as well as nations with major decline.
Invalidated Outlooks Archive:
Aug
31st ~ The
Club of Rome's 1972 "Limits to Growth" is introduced today.
This depiction reveals alarmist claims after its release that "the
world will run out of oil by the end of the century" were unfounded.
Its URR exhausts in 2075. Both its All Liquids 117-mbd
Peak preceded Hubbert's Conventional 111-mbd Peak were to occur in
1995. Hubbert's effort was released two years later.
Invalidated Outlooks
in general forecast low Peak Rates and/or
harsh post-peak Decline Rates. Typically they are constructed
on URR/EUR platforms less than the geology-based
Worst Case Scenario.
Current Production
exceeds Outlook Peak Rate: Hubbert 1956 (34mbd), Matt
Simmons (84.4), Bakhtiari (81), EWG-LBST (81) & Campbell (66)
Outlook's Peak Date surpassed: Hubbert-'56
(Y2k), Hubbert-'74 (1995), (Duncan-Youngquist
(2007), Matt Simmons (2007), Bakhtiari (2006), EWG-LBST (2006) &
Campbell (1989)
Guess
which one
predicts $600/barrel crude prices?
click chart for
more
theOilDrum Peak
With their misinformation agenda
revealed, hits are down over 50% at theOilDrum this year!
A hijack of the site by the lunatic fringe
is virtually complete...
June 1at ~ In 1989,
McPeaksters proclaimed that All Liquids would never exceed that
year's 66-mbd flow rate.
They
repeated
the declaration in 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996
1997 1998 1999 Y2k 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 & 2007
July 2008 production smashed monthly records with a new marker of 86.7-mbd
It is indeed ironic that as
McPeaksters announced for the 20th time last Summer that 2008 was Peak "for sure" ... annual flow rate was a full 20-mbd over their virgin declaration!
Pundits at theOilDrum, PeakOil.com, Jeff Rubin & forecaster extraordinaire Matt
Simmons
were the main originators/disseminators of the disruptive
2007/2008 rumours that both the giant Ghawar well & general
Saudi Arabia production were in Terminal Decline.
TrendLines Research URR
Highlights
Oil Initially in Place
(OIIP): 19-Tb.
URR avg: 3,785-Gb (doubled since 1992)
Remaining Resource:
2,582-Gb (doubled since Y2k)
Remaining Resource/Annual Production Ratio: 86 (record low of 43
in 1996)
Proved
Reserves: 1,131-Gb (double since 1982)
Past Consumption:
1,203-Gb
(to 2009/2/28)
March
22nd
(rev 2009/3/24) ~
Today's
version introduces URR studies by BGR of Germany & Peter
Wells of the UK. It updates figures from IEA, Laherrère, BP, Koppelaar, Campbell, OGJ, World Oil, EWG/LBST & my own (Freddy Hutter's
Peak Scenario 2300). The
estimate by WEC has been deleted due to its redundancy to
BGR. Samuel Foucher's linearization methodology is
deleted in favour of a similar but more robust model by Jean
Laherrère.
Chart-2
compares growth rates of the 21-model AVG with OGJ & BP. The
recent pricing regime fuelled favourable economics of previously
thought fringe contingent resources. Non-conventionals have been
growing at
a 124-Gb/yr pace (4.9%) since 1996. This far surpasses RCC's
growth rate of 30-Gb/yr (2.3%) from 1957-1995.
URR ain't growing like the good ol'e days. Unsustainable
crude prices drove discoveries, exploration, and conversion of
sub-commercial (contingent) resources over to the economic side of
the ledger. But sub $50/barrel pricing has been a real dampener of that
headiness.
Based on our
21-model Avg, 2009 is on pace for a
165-Gb augment to URR, compared to 290-Gb last year. Annual augments
to URR have exceeded Annual Consumption
(30-Gb in 2009) since 1997. There are 2,582-Gb (billion barrels) of oil
resource left...
This explains the
recent hiatus from exploration. The Remaining Resource/Annual
Production ratio is generational record 86 in 2009. Back in
1996, available Resource would have serviced only 43 years of
current production. This ration is a guide to long term supply
chain infrastructure needs. The historic Avg is 61 yrs.
A similar metric, the Reserves/Production Ratio is currently 38 and
has been in this vicinity for three decades.
click charts
for details
Evidenced in
brown,
green &
blue
lines in the chart, the terminal production decline
scenarios by Stuart Staniford & Ace at theOilDrum illustrate the
dangers of listening to agenda-driven pundits...
Pundits at
theOilDrum, along with forecaster extraordinaire Matt Simmons were
the main
originators/disseminators of the disruptive 2007/2008 rumours that Ghawar & KSA
went into terminal decline in 2006. Their common error was inability to
distinguish real decline from production decline. The latter is not
probable 'til 2024, in large part due to Aramco's unrivalled Surplus
Capacity.
Feb 10 2009 ~ A review of select Crude Supply Outlooks:
Sadad al Husseini's 2008 target was overly generous, a
result of Saudi Aramco's unpredictable compliance with OPEC-mandated
quota restrictions. He foresees a 2020-2023 Peak Plateau of
10.9-mbd.
The current Scenario-2200 Outlook projects a 2014-2023
Peak Plateau of 10-mbd based on a much reduced 212-Gb URR.
theOilDrum targets from both
2007 & 2008 would be hysterically low, had the Kingdom not shuttered
capacity in substantial fashion due to the aforementioned OPEC cuts.
As Aramco resumes normality in 2012, the growing divergence will
again become apparent.
click
chart for more
Feb
9 2009 ~ Saudi Arabia's Maximum
Sustainable Capacity (MSC) will be a record 13.05-mbd in 2009. Enjoy it.
Peak Oil has arrived in the Kingdom. From 2004 to 2007,
Saudi Aramco had bettered its self set targets. It didn't happen in 2008.
Fortunately, the miss was due to outside forces! By June, Saudi supply had
attained last year's goal of 9.5-mbd and was on the verge of busting the nation's
2006 All Liquids record. But within 30 days, Contract Crude was selling at
a record $134/barrel and Demand Destruction was kicking in. By year end,
OPEC members had agreed to pare down global quota by 4.2-mbd.
In compliance, Saudi production
was ratcheted down to 8.5-mbd and the 2008 year-end targets set back in 2004,
2006, 2007 all came up shy. A similar circumstance occurred in 2006 albeit
not as dramatic. Fortunately, these are merely asterisk events, and not a sign of terminal
production decline.
click
chart for more
Feb 3 ~ The recent
OPEC quota restrictions are unfortunate as Saudi Arabia missed its 10.68-mbd Annual
Record (set in 2005) by a mere 50-kbd.
Russia has an
insurmountable lock on second place
(10.0-mbd) for national suppliers. The USA has recovered well from Hurricane repercussions
(7.4-mbd). Following are China (3.9), Iran (3.8),
Canada (3.3) &
Mexico (3.1-mbd).
click chart for more
TrendLines Gas Pump
Oct 27 2008 ~ Like Crude,
USA Gasoline went way up; and is plunging just as fast.
This month's Retail
Price of $3.57/gal is comprised of $2.84 Wholesale refinery product
& a $ .73 Margin. In turn, Margin is $ .48 Taxes & $ .25 Profit.
One would think the
retailers are getting very rich, eh. Well, analysis reveals Margin
is up from $ .54 in January Y2k. Taxes & Profit are up from 44.5 &
12.5 cents at that time.
In other words, Profit
has been rising at 9% per annum.
The Crack Spread (diff
betw Wholesale & Contract Crude) for Refiners can be seen ranging
from $1.08 & $ .17 ($45.24 & $7.10/barrel) and is currently $
.66/gallon ($27.58/barrel). When this figure drops below $
.48/gallon ($20/barrel), Refiners prefer to produce diesel and
gasoline imports commence to rise.
click top chart for details
Sept 11 2008 ~
Remember
this July 11th Chart? It shows USA Contract Crude peaking at
$134/barrel. But while the poster boy for Crude Irrational
Exuberance, Jeff Rubin of CIBC World Markets, was irresponsibly
promoting the rationale for $200 Crude & $1.75/litre gasoline, our
Target Price was set at $109/barrel. On Aug 6th, we revised downward to
$102/barrel.
Neophyte pundits fail to comprehend the effects of rising energy
costs wrt the Global Economy. They tout Sky High Prices that are not
sustainable.
Note - Our 1-yr Target was reduced further to: $94 on Oct 16, $69 on Oct 22
& $60/barrel on Oct 29th.
click chart for more...
June 10 2008 ~
Atmospheric co2 will Peak at 408-ppm in 2025 based on analysis
of depletion of fossil fuel resources by TrendLines Research.
Peaks for Oil, Nat'l
Gas & Coal are poised for 2016, 2025 & 2035 respectively.
Remember the 800-ppm
CO2 extrapolation used by IPCC-2001 & Al Gore?
That mistaken scenario
was based on 2 flaws: extrapolation of the 1998 el niño & Y2k solar
flare maximum events; and IPCC emission scenarios that grossly
overestimated available fossil fuel resources by five-fold.
Models failed to acknowledge the finite limits of oil, coal & gas.
click chart for details
Dec 27 2007 ~ Colin Campbell represents a camp of FEAR mongers that
would have the public believe the globe is running out of oil.
It is a fraud and deception facilitated
by groups like theOilDrum and PeakOil.com
The reality is that Campbell and ASPO
have stealthily backdated new field discoveries and reserve growth
since 1995.
The yellow top ups show the discoveries
since 1995. The hashed yellow bars show what the ASPO
Discoveries Chart would look like w/o the deceptive backdating.
The ASPO-IE URR has grown grown from
1650-Gb in 1995 to 2500-Gb today.
By ASPO's own figures, less than half
of the oil worldwide has been consumed.
click chart
for details
Dec 8 2007 ~ The trend for Global co2 reveals a potential 680-ppm in
2100. Similarly, Mauna Loa data points to atmospheric
concentration rising to 540-ppm in 2100.
These long term trends shield
underlying data showing that the growth rate of GHG is plummeting
and both co2 measurement are also exhibiting dampened pace of
growth.
The foundation for this sea change is
the probable 2025 Peak in fossil fuel emissions. TrendLines
Research's target for CO2 is 425-ppm in 2025; receding to 348 by
2100.
click chart
for details
zoom in via <Ctrl +> &
zoom out via <Ctrl -> in IE7 browsers (new bottom right
tool)
Past, present & future
spare capacity within OPEC. This is but one of the factors
that affects trends in crude prices (updated
monthly)
Feb 2007 ~ This graph is the new battle
flag of theOilDrum forum. Yup, all the
marbles on one call. Remember them? They are
the pundit alarmists (Mainstream Media calls them
wacko's) that in October 2004 published that the USA was
entering an economic Recession. Oops.
Well, they're back...
TOD's
February 2007
prediction:
The
green
line shows that Saudi Arabia crude supply of
8.7-mbd of January 2007 is headed to 6.5-mbd
by Autumn 2011
...
or as low as 4-mbd!
They
published it the exact same day that Colin Campbell
published a graph showing Saudi Arabia won't decline
until 2025 & he changed the ASPO Peak Oil Date to 2011
...
So, who
has got it very wrong? TOD or ASPO? Let's
see if TOD can do better than Matt Simmons, eh!
Note -
Saudi Arabia's supply output target for Autumn 2011 is
10.5-mbd ... right off the top of his graph!
Mar 13
2009 Update: To the chagrin of TheOilDrum
McPeaksters, KSA extraction rose from 8.6 to 9.5-mbd by June
2008, at which time Saudi Aramco was forced to submit to OPEC quota
restrictions. Even after these production cuts, KSA is still
far above
the 7.2-mbd predicted for March 2009 by TOD's Stuart
Staniford.
More on KSA
Matt
Simmons, forecaster extraordinaire!
PEAK TOD-USA
& TOD-Europe ... theOilDrum Hijacked by McDoomers !!
TheOilDrum's counter says it all:
TOD has Peaked.
Several weeks ago, i
warned the new doomster Moderator (Leanan) that the
forum was collapsing in remarkably similar fashion to YahooEnergyResources, a discussion Group hijacked by the
McDoomers back in 2004.
Feb 2007 ~ Peak Oil Theory has been replaced
as focus at theOilDrum by 100's of ad nauseum
daily posts on
DieOFF, the coming
USA Depression, pending
collapse of the world's currencies & hate posts against
their President, Congress, the Federal Reserve, all
agencies' statistics, the IMF, the UN & anybody that
doesn't agree that Oil peaked in 2005. I
predicted in January
that the conversation was about to deteriorate to
discussing human poop for fertilizer use by their
nihilist posters that moved to the mountains and are
awaiting the anti-christ and the Global Warming induced
Great Flood. Well, last week "humanure" was
the topic of the day by
the lunatic fringe that has hijacked that once
excellent forum. It's
a cult that gleefully
awaits the the collapse of the USA with a desire to turn
the evil Empire into an agrarian society in Old Order
Amish/Mennonites fashion with no electricity, planes or cars. After
almost 2 years, i'm oudda there ~ TOD has PEAKED...
Pew Centre on
Climate Change, 2004
Jan 16 2007 ~ In Dec
2003, Samsam Bakhtiari of Iran proposed via his WOCAP-2
Model that Peak Oil would be upon us in 2006 with a Peak Rate
of 81-mbd. We see
in this graph that he miscalculated by 4-mbd (compared
to blue line actual). But now he is telling
supporters that his projection excluded some oils (proc
gains). If that was his intent, his pre-forecast
baseline (prior to 2004) should match the RED line.
If All Liquids was indeed his intent, his Black line
should mirror the yellow ASPO line and the green 2003
IEA line. U be the Judge...
OTOH, Mr Bakhtiari
has the sole model that suggests a pre-2010 Peak. Can he hit
it out of the park for redemption? Stay tuned ...
saudi arabia stock market
spe classifications
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