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pleased to tell TRENDLiners this past Winter 82% of visitors
were International (113 nations: most from USA, UK,
Argentina, Australia, France, Italy, Spain, Austria, Germany & Hong
Kong)
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FreeVenue charts are generally posted 90-days after the guidance release
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charts, tables, archive & enhanced discussion)
econ
~
TRENDLines
Debt Wall
~ USA Structural Deficits Leading to Treasuries Crisis
in
2022
elect ~
MP Riding
Projection
for Canadian Federal Election reveals Conservatives were
in post-Debates free-fall 'til Launch of SunNews
elect ~ So, who had the best of 14 seat projection models this year?
... see
the 2011
Scoreboard
Scroll down forFreeVenue
charts ~ click graph for full discussion etc at topic venue
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to wait? View our current guidance charts via: (a)
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TRI-Canada says Soft
Spring related to Burst Canadian Housing Bubble
May 1st
delayed FreeVenue public release of Jan 31st MemberVenue guidance ~ With
home prices plunging $400/week, Canada's Economic Action Plan
appears at odds in embattling broken confidence. That said, the
Trendlines Recession Indicator
gauges the expansion phase of the new business cycle is finally
reaching critical mass and should sustain balanced growth onwards
w/o the aid of fiscal policy stimulus or easing of monetary policy
measures. Real GDP growth is weighed by
TRI to have been 2.6% in January, down from a 5.6% pace in December
(Q4).
Today StatCan released data inferring November
RGDP was 2.7% (TRI = 4.9%).
The TRI uses proprietary heuristic algorithms to transform 6 leading
data sets into an insightful GDP baseline thru to 2017. The
uniqueness of its methodology minimizes false-positives &
false-negatives. Albeit the past would suggest the demise of
the typical 8.5-year business cycle in 2017, the unveiling of today's
forecast projects the diminished o.2% RGDP pace for March (Q1) will
be followed by a surge to o.9% in Q2 ... en route to a 2.8% growth
momentum crest in 2015Q4. At that juncture, GDP commences a secular decline
towards a 2.4% soft-landing at the end of the 2017 fuzzy horizon. The trajectory will change, no
doubt, as inflation and inventory factors come into play.
Factors contributing to short/medium/long term weakness in the TRI
outlook continue to be: (a) waning Fed/Prov fiscal stimulus
cheques; (b) high petroleum prices; (c) an Export killing
"par-plus" Loonie & (d) the weight of the record Canadian housing
bubble.
click chart for
graphic view back to 1952, outlook table & full discussion...
Jan 30 2012
monthly update ~
Realty Bubble Monitor
Overpricing of Median/Avg Home in December 2011
Bubble Today
price rise/fall past 90 days
med/avg price
Bubble Today
Bubble @ Peak
$184,000
$ -200/week
Australia
81%
$241k
& 128% (2007)
$ 87,000
$ -400/week
Canada
32%
$87k
& 32% (2011)
$ -8,000
$ -100/week
USA
-5%
$74k
& 34% (2005)
£ 90,000
£ -200/week
UK
120%
£111k
& 157% (2007)
April 30th delayed
FreeVenue public release of Jan 30th MemberVenue guidance ~ Over the
past 90 days, the avg/median home price fell $400/week in Canada,
£200/week in the UK, $200/week in Australia and $100/week in the
USA. The USA realty bubble been in "over-correction mode"
since Sept/2010. Thus, its annual median home price ended 2011
actually 5% ($8,000) below the long-term Price/Family-Income ratio
trend. In turn, Australia, Canada & the UK face a prolonged
stifling of economic activity due to the assault on disposable
incomes by the weight of home mortgages and rent. When one
adds in the burden of cumulative high petroleum costs, the
fundamentals are in place for Technical Recessions in all three
jurisdictions.
Families most at risk are in the UK
where the avg home is overpriced by 120%. The Australian
median home is currently 81% overpriced. Canada's housing
bubble finally burst in June 2011. The avg Canadian home is
32% overpriced and valued at 2.2 x's its American counterpart. As
such, the Canadian economy saw monthly contractions in February, April, May & November and the
TRENDLines Recession Indicator
currently projects sub
3% GDP thru to its 2017Q4 horizon.
The Conservative Federal Gov't & Bank
of Canada talking points have been blaming the Japanese earthquake, EURO
troubles & Justin Bieber for the ailing domestic economy, but CMHC is clearly at fault for this
situation. Canada was the last G-20 nation to fall into
Recession in 2008 and the first one out ... not by clever
fiscal/monetary policy but because CMHC was enabling the domestic
realty bubble by condoning 5% minimum downpayments for its high-ratio
mortgage insurance coverage. As such, the housing bubble
financed Canada's false good fortune. The present economic downturn is
solely a "made-in-Canada" malaise and was foretold in
this venue as far back as March 24 2010.
It is scandalous the measure
continues in place and Canadian taxpayers are clearly at risk.
CMHC expects the Canadian taxpayer will bailout any major insurance
losses it incurs as was done in the USA with FannieMae & FreddieMac. If there is any sense of accountability in Ottawa, look for heads to
roll at CMHC. Why? The following was CMHC's response to my
on-going analysis in their Q3 Financial Statement release
(2011/11/29):
"At the moment, there is little evidence of a significant
over-valuation in the Canadian housing market overall, although some
centres warrant close monitoring. CMHC expects housing markets to
stabilize next year, and house prices to grow modestly going
forward."
click a chart for 4-nation Bubble
guidance & research notes ...
TRI-USA
says GDP will rise to 2.7% by Election
Apr 27th delayed
FreeVenue public release of Jan 27th MemberVenue guidance ~ The
American economic recovery finally surpassed the Dec/2007 Real GDP
high water mark in October. Acknowledging the present stubborn
weakness won't trough 'til mid-Spring, today's general upgrade of
2012 by the
TRENDLines Recession Indicator
reveals the expansion of the new business cycle is exhibiting critical mass despite a virtual absence of both fiscal policy stimulus and
monetary policy quantitative easing. The January RGDP growth
rate is gauged at 2.5%, down from 4.1% in December (Q4). Today,
BEA released its first estimate of 2.8% for Q4.
TRI's uniqueness is
its use of proprietary heuristic algorithms to transform 14 leading
data sets into an insightful GDP baseline thru to 2035. The
uniqueness of its methodology minimizes false-positives &
false-negatives. Albeit the past would suggest the demise of
the typical 8.5-year business cycle in 2017, the unveiling of today's
forecast projects current headwinds will result in a diminished 1.0% RGDP pace for
March (Q1), a o.8% trough in
April, followed by a surge to 2.7% in Q3 (to be announced mere days
prior to the Nov 6th Election) ... en route to a 2.9% growth
momentum crest in October. At that juncture, the TRI long-term
chart illustrates GDP commences a secular decline ending with an
ultimate hard-landing in 2031, but no sign of resurrection within
the 2035 fuzzy horizon. The trajectory will change, no
doubt, as inflation and inventory factors come into play.
Today's 2012H2
upgrade reflects a forecast easing of high petroleum prices
upon resolution Iran-related geopolitical issues. In the
short-term however, the same demand destruction that befell the USA
auto sector in Spring 2011 is likely to re-emerge in the coming
weeks. The
negative effects of cumulative fossil fuel price increases are still
permeating throughout the economy. The diminished crest compared to
previous cycles reflects both the ongoing winding down of the
balance sheet recession and a toxic political environment at the
federal and state levels. The model warns the housing sector
will face a 2% rise in 5-yr
mortgage rates in late 2014. Monetary Policy actions by the Federal Reserve & the
Treasury Secretary's guidance to Congress with respect to Fiscal
Policy will ultimately determine the timing and harshness of the cycle bottom.
Headwinds
- Factors contributing to short/medium term weakness of the TRI
outlook continue to be: (a) stubbornly high unemployment; (b) political dysfunction; & (c) cumulative high
petroleum costs
click chart for
graphic view 1970-2035, outlook table & full discussion...
TRENDLines Peak Oil Depletion Tier-1 Scenarios:
April 26 2012 delayed FreeVenue public release of Jan 26th
MemberVenue guidance ~ Today's
monthly revision: (a) updates Tier-1 Outlooks by BP, EIA & my own
Hutter
Peak Scenario-2500
& (b) downgrades the Sadad al Husseini Outlook from Tier1 to Invalidated
Consensus based on
15-model Tier-1 avg:
Peak Oil: 97 Mbd in 2027
Post-peak Decline Rate 'til 2050: 0.8%/yr avg
The year 50% of URR/EUR has been extracted: 2038
The year flow breaches below today's 88-Mbd: 2044
The year flow drops to ½ of today's 88-Mbd: 2092
The year we virtually run out of oil: 2305 (less than 8-Mbd &
mostly BTL)
URR/EUR:
4,331 Gb (1,288-Gb consumed to 2011/12/31 excl 5-Gb BTL)
Reserves req'd 2012 'til 2027 Peak:
536-Gb
Today's Global Depletion:
30% of URR (Net Depletion Rate: 1.1%/yr)
click chart for
Tier-2 & many more graphs, tables & discussion...
Trendlines Peak Oil Depletion Archive of
Invalidated Outlooks ~
April 26 2012 delayed FreeVenue public release of Jan 26th
MemberVenue guidance: downgrade of Sadad al Husseini Outlook
from Tier-1 status
In keeping with the methodology
practice of striving for consensus integrity, I have the unfortunate task of
downgrading the Sadad al Husseini Outlook from Tier-1 to Invalidated
status. Originally a 2007 study with its peak updated in 2010, the effort
becomes the latest victim where actual production (88-Mbd) has exceeded the
predicted Peak Rate (87-Mbd 2013-2019 plateau). I look forward a
future revision by Sadad for reinstatement consideration...
click chart for
Tier-2, Tier-1, Conventional Oil & many more graphs, tables &
discussion...
April 25th delayed FreeVenue public
release of Jan 25th MemberVenue guidance ~
monthly update of Freddy Hutter's
Peak Scenario-2500 Oil Depletion
Model
The year flow breaches below 2011 level of 88 Mbd:
2046
The year 50% of URR consumed:
2103
The year All Liquids
(excl BTL) runs out:
2496 Light Sweet Crude (RCO):
2103
Underlying Decline Rate Observed
2011: 3.2% (2.79 Mbd) of
global All
Liquids
click graph for
more PS-2500 charts, tables & full discussion...
Barrel Meter
:
Crude could Spike to $148 if Hormuz Blockaded
April 24th delayed FreeVenue public release of Jan 24th MemberVenue
guidance ~
The USA contract crude price averaged $105 in December, down $3 over
the last thirty days ... 32% over its
$79/barrel Fundamentals Fair Value. USA Contract Crude is the
volume weighted avg of three dozen grades and blends produced in
and/or imported to the USA.
Typically this can
range from a 10% discount for Canada Heavy to a 20% premium for Malaysia
Tapis Light. Confidence levels suggest the monthly avg could
exhibit a trading range spanning $78 to $113/barrel thru the balance
of Q1 & Q2.
Global production has increased dramatically from the Recession
low of 83.1 Mbd (Jan/2009), setting yet another monthly record (90.2-Mbd) in
Dec/2011 and a new quarterly record
of 89.5 Mbd (2011Q4). The oil sector pace has shattered last year's
annual record with a new mark of 87.4-Mbd and monthly production
is poised to break the 95-Mbd threshold in 2015 & the 100-Mbd marker in 2028.
At this time, it appears the
natural GEOLOGIC
PEAK of 105-Mbd in 2030 is likely to be
pre-empted by PEAK DEMAND of 100-Mbd in 2029 upon crude oil
surpassing $213/barrel.
Improving
fundamentals, declining Windfall Profits and resolution of concern
over Iran over the next several months should drive Crude Price down to $73
over the next 12 months and to $63 in 24 months. Perceived cyclicality within the fundamentals leads
me to expect the 2008 & 2011 spikes to be duplicated with future crests in 2016,
2020 & 2023. Fear my
Barrel Meter
forecast of coming highs won't come to fruition may lead the more nervous and
vulnerable OPEC members to again break quota discipline whilst
publicly calling for intervention via production cuts at their scheduled June 2012
conference - and thereafter.
FFV Chart Inset
~ The dashed red
line
in the chart above depicts the "fair value"
of crude oil considering
its fundamentals: worldwide Extraction Costs (production
weighted), lack of global Surplus Capacity, international Inventory
Draws (vs build) & US$ Debasement. In general, Crude Price (red
line) tracks
reasonably close to oil's Fundamentals Fair Value.
The
chart inset tracks variance from FFV. Significant exceptions
were: (a) the 71% premium during the 1999/Y2k OPEC cutback;
(b) a 54% premium in the lead-up to the Iraq2 invasion; and (c) the
-22% deficiency in Dec/2008 at the depth of the Great Recession.
click chart for graph to 2035, tables & more discussion...
the Gas Pump
~ Gas could spike to $4.40/gal if Hormuz blocked in
February
April
23rd delayed
FreeVenue public release of Jan 23rd MemberVenue guidance ~
All-grades retail gasoline averaged $3.33 in December ... down 11¢
over 30 days. With the
Gas
Pump model
projecting gasoline to trough @ $2.30/gal in Jan/2014,
anxiety may spark an unnecessary OPEC intervention. The
current slide reflects increasingly favourable USA contract crude price
fundamentals within the
Barrel Meter
model.
The primary forcing
for the early 2011 multi-month price spike was clearly USDollar
Debasement. Mismanagement of federal budgeting (see
Debt Wall
analysis) since Barack Hussein Obama's inauguration adds 11¢/gal to
current pump prices. Recent IAEA disclosures have led to
speculation on a third (Iraq/Syria/Iran) Israeli bombing raid on
illicit Middle East nuclear facilities in February.
Gas Pump
analysis suggests this could result in gasoline's monthly avg spiking to
$4.40/gallon before being reversed by the model's Demand Destruction
Barrier.
When the Pump Price surged above
$3.26/gallon in Feb/2011, it breached the
model's Light Vehicle Sales Barrier (a
definitive Gasoline/GDP ratio) and the post-Recession rebound of
unit sales was truncated the following month.
Since
Nov/2009 the
Barrel Meter
has been warning there is a line-in-the-sand that if surpassed would
strangle the post-Recession auto sector rebound. New Car
Sales were decimated upon crossing this same threshold in 1980, 1990 &
2007. During the Great Recession, volume declined from a 16
million unit annual rate to 9 mu/yr. Sales had climbed back to
13.2 mu/yr by Feb/2011, but then slipped to an 11.5 mu/yr pace
when consumers were once again confronted with high gasoline/diesel prices.
Now that Pump Price has dipped back below the LVSB ($3.37/gal & $93/barrel crude),
it is again probable for sales to surpass the 14 mu/yr pace.
click chart for more graphs, table & full discussion at the Gas Pump
venue...
USA
"Real"Unemployment Rate drops to 15.2% in
December
April
6th delayed
FreeVenue public release of Jan 6th MemberVenue guidance ~ Today's
headline USA Unemployment Rate for December may be 8.5% (U-3),
but the dire state of the jobless is better reflected by the REAL
Unemployment Rate
of 15.2%. The latter includes discouraged/marginally
attached workers and economically necessitated part-timers.
The rate is down from 15.6% in November, but is not significantly
below the Great Recession induced high of 17.2%
set Oct/2009.
How is it that GDP has
again surpassed the pre-Great Recession levels while 6 million souls
are still not working? A low USDollar has spurred Exports to
record levels and manufacturing is much less labour intensive than
the decimated construction sector.
click chart for full
discussion at UR site...
Saudi Arabia MSC & Supply Outlook ... an update
March 31st delayed
FreeVenue public release of Dec 31st MemberVenue guidance ~ Guidance from the
Kingdom and/or Saudi Aramco with respect to MegaProjects & Surplus Capacity has
been limited to fine-tuning over the past three years. OPEC mandated quota restrictions had kept Supply below
national targets in 2008, 2009 & 2010, but geopolitical issues surrounding
Libya & Iran drew KSA from its reluctant role as swing producer. Saudi
Arabia set new monthly/quarterly/annual
production records in 2011. In 2009 I predicted that year
would prove to be the Kingdom's Peak Year for
Maximum Sustainable Capacity (MSC). Today it appears the 12.5-Mbd high
will be unchallenged and high idle capacity (2.0-Mbd) continues to hide this
milestone event. Last week's
URR Linearization update re-confirms the Kingdom appears to be inflating
their total resource base. In 2009 I revealed their claim of 900-Gb
was more like 212-Gb. Nothing has changed. All the announced MegaProjects are
still underway. Due to the subdued Demand growth since the Great Recession, final commissioning of Manifa
will be stretched out to 2014. The
preservation of Surplus Capacity reconciled with new construction indicates
the Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO) for regular conventional oil has
climbed from 2.5% to to 3.6%
per annum over the past two years. RCO extraction should remain above
8.0-Mbd 'til 2021.
click a chart
to visit the Saudi Arabia venue...
Update of legacy Saudi Arabia Crude Production Forecasts by Husseini
& theOilDrum
March 31st delayed
FreeVenue public release of Dec 31st MemberVenue guidance ~ Here's my annual look-see
at how the legacy predictions by Sadad al Husseini and
theOilDrum's Stuart Staniford & Ace (Joker) have performed against facts on
the ground. Admittedly, all efforts have been stymied to some degree
by OPEC mandated quota restrictions. This is exactly why it was decided
back in Feb/2009 to depict my Peak Scenario-2500's as Maximum
Sustainable Capacity ... not Production.
The PS-2500 continues to project 2009 as Peak
Year for MSC. The Kingdom's 3.6% Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO)
for regular conventional oil makes it almost impossible for any future announced megaprojects to have
sufficient
magnitude necessary to breach 2009's 12.5-Mbd high. Based on last week's
Linearization update,
my
estimate of KSA URR nudges up slightly to 211-Gb. The Husseini Outlook takes a similar view with
its production high (2023) of only 11-Mbd. The Ace (joker?) over @ TOD forecasts
extraction going south after 2011. Meanwhile, the infamous high-case
worst-case scenarios by theOilDrum's Stuart Staniford continue to be emblematic
of the agenda-driven rhetoric, fabrication of data, misinformation and mass
hysteria at that place.
Year 2100 co2 ppm target is 348 ... not 695-730 indicated by IPCC
premise of unlimited Fossil Fuel Resource
March 29th delayed
FreeVenue public release of Dec 29th MemberVenue guidance
~ Update of the annual co2-GHG analysis by Trendlines Research
reveals it is quite improbable co2 will ever attain the 695 ppm
level for Year 2100 indicated by Mauna Loa gains, or the 730-ppm
suggested by the trend of global readings. Both lofty figures
wrongly assume there is an unlimited supply of coal, oil and natural
gas to quench the appetite of developing BRIC nations. On the
contrary, today's study reveals current estimates of remaining
fossil fuel resource and declining growth rates for demand should
see fossil fuel emissions peak in 2029. This event would
result in a maximum co2 atmospheric concentration of 423-ppm (393
today), declining to 348-ppm by Year 2100.
Since the 60's, annual increases have risen from less than 1ppm
to 3ppm/yr. If there is good news, it is that concentrations
of the 16 Greenhouse Gases as
tracked by the NASA GHG Index are growing more slowly (1.2% annually
rather than the near 3%/yr back in the early 80's. This is thanx to headway in the methane and CFC fronts. The infamous Al Gore
graph spike (the stepladder one) is pure fantasy. Its absurd
800-ppm peak was based on an upward spike in co2 associated with the
1998 El Niño. This episode is viewable via the co2 emission
growth rate in the chart below. The 2001 IPCC Report, while
well intentioned, applied an extrapolated exponential increase in
co2 and temp's based on that anomaly.
click
a chart to view more charts & discussion @ my Climate Change venue....
Fossil Fuels Contribution to Atmospheric co2 Concentrations:
423ppm Peak in 2029
March 28th delayed
FreeVenue public release of Dec 28th MemberVenue guidance
~ The 2011 annual analysis by Trendlines Research of
fossil fuels emissions indicates their contribution should result in
a peak of atmospheric co2 concentration of 423-ppm in 2029. It
should be noted that while
rising co2 concentration levels exhibit a correlated upwards
tracking with
total emissions, the decay pulse would indicate residual co2 will not
follow the post peak downward path of emissions as quickly. Most co2
remains for a hundred years and traces linger for almost a
millennium. By Year 2100, co2 will have declined to only
348-ppm ... taking us back to 1980 concentrations.
Underlying the simultaneous total emissions & co2 concentration peak
in 2029 are a coal emissions peak in 2025;
PEAK DEMAND of All Liquids in 2029 (100-Mbd); and a
natural gas emissions peak in 2035. These updated findings of
Freddy Hutter's original Dec/2007 study continues to contrast
substantially with the consensus view represented by the Hansen &
Kharecha white paper (NASA Nov/2007) suggesting co2 will peak @
585-ppm in Year 2100. It assumes a 96-Mbd oil peak in 2016 - but is based on a 2003
study by EIA/Wood. The
Trendlines Research study is founded on a premise that the GDP/Energy Demand scenarios within IPCC 2001
were overly optimistic in the sense they assumed the
growth accompanying increases in population and rising disposable
incomes in the BRIC nations would be
fueled by fossil fuels. Unfortunately, there isn't enuf oil, coal
and natural
gas left in the ground to feed the magnificent projected Demand.
Historic Tracking of (ASPO-IE) Colin Campbell Depletion Model:
1989-2011
March
28th delayed
FreeVenue public release of Dec 27th MemberVenue guidance ~
Today's
update adds Colin Campbell's May/2011 Outlook. It re-confirms his
position
All Liquids peaked @ 85-mbd in 2008 (despite EIA data to the
contrary) and is founded on a
2,52334-Gb URR (up 89-Gb from last year). The chart tracks all the production profile
revisions over his career. Its forecasts of Peak Year have ranged from 1989 to
2012. In fact, December marks the 22nd anniversary of Campbell's
initial All Liquids declaration that oil had indeed peaked. To be
accurate ... a sub-peak. In Dec/1989, he declared All Liquids production had reached its physical limits @
66-mbd and would never again attain the 67-Mbd Peak back in 1979.
Campbell's estimates for Peak Rate
span from that virgin call of a 66 Mbd sub-peak in 1989 to his 2008
forecast of a
97 Mbd peak in 2010. His underlying All Liquids URR estimates range from
1575-Gb (1989) to 2900-Gb (2002). TRENDLiners may have notice my last three
annual
chart revisions have excluded Campbell's 1991,
1996, 1997 & 1998 projections. I determined those studies forecast Regular Conventional
Oil ... not All Liquids, and only led to unnecessary
confusion.
His current (2011) forecast for RCO can be compared to the only three
other such projections for light sweet crude at my
Scenarios
venue.
See how the
2010 ASPO Depletion Model measures up against other failed outlooks in our
Invalidated Scenarios
presentation & compared agin
Tier-1
URR
estimates.
click here to see
how the latest (2011) Campbell Depletion Model measures up against
the only other three
studies
addressing Regular Conventional Oil (light sweet crude)
click chart
for full discussion & more at the Peak Oil History venue...
URR/EUR Highlights
Oil Initially in Place (OIIP):
19-Tb.
URR avg:
4,174-Gb (doubled since 1995) & rising 22-Gb for each $1/barrel crude price
increase
Remaining Resource: 2,886-Gb (doubled since Y2k)
Inferred
Depletion: 31%
Remaining Resource/Annual Production Ratio: 90 (record low:
44 in 1995)
Proved
Reserves: 1,256-Gb (doubled since 1978) & growing by 49-Gb/yr
(10-yr avg)
Past Consumption: 1,288-Gb
(to 2011/12/31 excl 5-Gb BTL)
March 26th delayed FreeVenue public release of Dec 26th MemberVenue
guidance ~ Today's
compilation update figures from
BP, Brandt & Farrell, Campbell, EIA, ExxonMobil, Laherrère, Total
& my own Hutter
Peak
Scenario-2500.
Today's URR study Avg is 118-Gb
higher than last year and 82-Gb less than the avg inferred within
the last monthly update of our 16-model
Tier-1 Scenarios Presentation.
Its slightly different mix of practitioners has a URR Avg of
4,256-Gb.
URR Growth Rate Vs Consumption
Chart#2 compares the
growth rate of the 22-model Avg with OGJ & BP. It is seen the
recent high-price regime fuelled favourable economics of previously
thought fringe contingent (sub-commercial) resources.
Discovery, development and technology advancements (especially of
non-conventionals) fuelled a growth pace of 128-Gb/yr (4.9%) since
1996. This far surpasses URR's growth of 30-Gb/yr (2.3%) from
1957-1995.
Unsustainable crude
prices ($129/barrel high - July/2008) drove discoveries,
exploration, and conversion of sub-commercial (contingent) resources
over to the economic side of the ledger. But, subsequent
sub-$90 pricing was a serious dampener of that headiness.
Viewed via the 3-yr rolling average of the 22-models, additions to
URR peaked @ 420-Gb in 2008, the growth rate slipping to 0-Gb in
2011. My analysis reveals over the last ten years URR has
risen 22-Gb for every $1/barrel price increase. Similarly,
each higher dollar added 2-Gb of Proved Reserves.
click a chart for full discussion,
tables & related graphs @ URR/EUR venue...
1996
Campbell URR
components
2011
1,650
Original
pre-1996 Discoveries
1,650
0
post-1995
backdates
417
0
post-1995
net discoveries
362
150
future
Conventional allowance
75
000
future
Non-Conv allowance
19
1,800-Gb
2,523-Gb
Sans ASPO backdating ... no longer "running out of oil"
March
25th delayed FreeVenue public release of Dec 25th MemberVenue
guidance - As I predicted
in 2007, global All Liquids URR/EUR is headed for 6-Tb ... not the
ultra conservative resource projected by Colin Campbell of ASPO-IE.
Colin Campbell published his first Historical Discoveries graph
in 1996. It was based on his estimated URR of 1800
billion barrels (Gb) and was comprised of 1650-Gb of
Discovered crude & a
150-Gb
allowance for probable Future Discoveries. His 2007 version
(at left) is misleading in the sense that its backdating methodology
gives the perception of "a well running dry".
My 2007 chart
revealed for the first time how ASPO had stealthily hid record levels of Discoveries &
Reserve Growth by clever and non-transparent backdating. The
chart's hashed yellow bars illustrate what this ASPO Discoveries Chart would look like w/o the
deceptive backdating. Now, four years later, the tall lime
bars emphasize dramatically why Colin Campbell & ASPO have never
updated their classic graph!
The gloomy chart was
given wide dissemination at a time when ASPO had been hijacked by
the McPeaksters ... a fringe fraternity that has been promoting
"imminent" Peak Oil since 1989. I consider the premise behind
the practice of backdating as sound. However, McPeaksters have
chose to depict the measure with an utter disregard for
transparency. IMHO, this was done to mislead and cause
alarmism. Today's revelations leave McPeaksters stymied in defending
their "well running dry" or "running out of oil" rhetoric.
The new
chart depicts BP's increases in URR for 2007, 2008, 2009 & 2010 ...
increasing their own URR to 2,787-Gb. In comparison, my 22-model
URR estimates
study
averages 3,820-Gb &
my 15-model
Tier-1 Depletion Scenarios
project infers All Liquids URR is 4,330-Gb. My own
PS-2500 model presently gauges URR to be 7.928-Gb. Colin
Campbell has raised his URR by another 89-Gb to 2,523-Gb this year.
The McPeakster doom
position is completely
undermined by the realization the growth trend has resumed its
post-2006 pace, with an avg 66-Gb/yr in additions by BP. That's double the rate
of annual consumption! The prospect of Discoveries dwindling to nothingness as shown in
ASPO's 2007 depiction is absurd. Campbell expects only 75-Gb of
future discoveries of Regular Conventional &
19-Gb of non-Conventional resource over the next century.
click chart for full
discussion & URR venue...
Barrel Meter
Compared to 13 Recognized Long-Term 2035 Crude Oil Price
Forecasts
March
24th delayed FreeVenue
public release of Dec 24th guidance @ our MemberVenue ~ Today's
chart compares the
Trendlines Barrel Meter
monthly revision to updated annual price outlooks by Adam
Sieminski of Deutsche Bank, EIA,
IEA, OPEC, Boone Pickens & Chris Skrebowski.
A new annotation added
to the chart today is Freddy Hutter's "Peak Demand Barrier".
In Oct/2011 it was proposed in his
TrendLines Barrel Meter model
that global oil consumption ceases to grow when
the USA contract crude price exceeds this definitive Petroleum/GDP
ratio. The thesis further suggests the natural Geologic Peak
of 103-Mbd in 2031 will be pre-empted by Peak Demand upon permanent
breach of the PDB threshold in 2029 when oil surpasses $213/barrel
hence holding consumption to the 100-Mbd at that juncture.
The
Barrel Meter
has been unique in its tracking of oil fundamentals as components of
crude price since 1999. The recent update calculates today's
$103 price to be a 27% premium over crude's Fundamental Fair Value. US$ Debasement
since early 2009 remains a $15 price component. This new
revision proposes spiking activity in 2008 & 2011 is related to
newborn cyclicity within oil fundamentals and additional spikes can
be expected in 2015, 2018 & 2021.
The
Barrel Meter currently
forecasts that failing either any major geopolitical event or OPEC
intervention at their June convention, much improving fundamentals
should see oil decline to $63 by Sept/2012. It maintains a
price ceiling to any spiking activity of the monthly avg exists as
represented by another definitive Petroleum/GDP ratio ... the Demand
Destruction Barrier.
Between these two lines is the price point (currently $121) which
can induce economic Recessions among the G-20 nations (as occurred
in 2009). The
Trendlines
Gas Pump
reveals a similar critical price level - the USA Light Vehicle Sales
Barrier - the price at which rising gasoline prices cause collapse
in the auto manufacturing sector. This occurred in 1980, 1990,
2007 & Spring 2011. It is $3.37/gallon ($102/barrel oil)
today.
The
Barrel Meter
imports data on projected extraction costs,
spare production capacity & business cycles from the
Peak Scenario 2500
depletion model. A similar analysis for
gasoline price is featured via the
Gas Pump
presentation.
click chart for more
price discussions, tables & graphs...
Linearization Method:
URR/EUR Comparisons 2011/12/23
Geo/Tech Method:
4,510-Gb
All Liquids
7,966-Gb
1,990-Gb
Regular
Conventional Oil
1,999-Gb
210-Gb
Saudi Arabian Crude
900-Gb
300-Gb
NGL-GTL-Ref/Gain
1,727-Gb
205-Gb
Bitumen/X-Heavy-CTL-Kerogen
3,038-Gb
180-Gb
Deep Sea & Arctic
266-Gb
Mar 23rd delayed
FreeVenue public release of Dec 23rd MemberVenue guidance ~
Linearization analysis is a guiding counterweight to
geology/technology based Estimates of Ultimate Economical
Recoverable Resource (URR/EUR). When compared, All Liquids
succumbs to a 3,456-Gb differential, mostly attributable to Bitumen,
CTL, GTL & Kerogen not yet reflecting their massive potential flows.
click chart for
full discussion at URR/EUR venue...
Regular Conventional Oil Scenarios
~ 2030: Colin Campbell (38-Mbd) vs Freddy Hutter (58-Mbd)
March 17th delayed FreeVenue public release of Dec 17 2011 guidance
@ the MemberVenue ~ Over the years, there have been only 4 modellers
worldwide who have published long term production profiles for
Regular Conventional Oil ... the light sweet crude:
Albert Bartlett
(USA), Colin Campbell (Ireland), M King Hubbert (USA)
& TRENDLines' own Freddy Hutter (Yukon Canada)
Jean Laherrère & Colin Campbell have been the sector's
most stalwart peak oil study practitioners. Both have openly
shared their annual analysis with fellow modellers for over two
decades. In May 2011, I coaxed Campbell to come out of
retirement for a second time for another update.
Campbell's 2011 Depletion Model continues to extend
RCO's dramatic 2.3%/yr post-peak decline rate thru to 2030.
It increases RCO's URR by 84-Gb to 2,047-Gb ... a career high
estimate for Colin.
Conversely, the
Hutter
Peak Scenario-2500
(the sole active model) has trimmed last Spring's URR estimate by
another 24-Gb to 2,038-Gb. While Campbell forecasts the annual
flow rate will deteriorate to 38-Mbd by 2030, Hutter takes the
position 58-Mbd is more probable. On the longer term, whereas
Campbell predicts the annual Decline Rate softens after 2050,
Hutter sees major resource constraint after 2038.
As a 73%
component of
All Liquids, the short-term demise of Regular Conventional
Oil will determine whether Peak Oil is imminent or has another
couple of decades to play out. The
PS-2500 model determined in 2008 the steep RCO decline (2.3%
2006-2009) was not the result of rapid depletion but rather a mirage
masked by shifts in global Surplus Capacity. As such, Hutter
has been stalwart in his position RCO extraction had entered a
twenty-year plateau, forming a solid foundation for
non-conventionals to take All Liquids to ever increasing heights.
With light sweet crude rising to 64-Mbd in 2010, stable in 2011 and
forecast to rise in 2012, the universe appears to be unfolding as it
should...
click chart for
RCO coverage at the Scenarios venue...
TRENDLines Peak Oil Depletion Tier-2 Scenarios:
Feb 24th
delayed FreeVenue public release of Nov 24th guidance @ the
MemberVenue ~ Today's
revision introduces to Tier-2 the 2011 Outlook by Charles Maxwell
One of the
long-term crude
oil price forecasts charted by TRENDLines is a projection by American
consultant Charles Maxwell ($286/barrel by 2020). This month he unveiled
his first
All Liquids depletion Outlook, but it appears to be more-or-less a
conjecture-based effort proposing a 90-Mbd peak in 2015. At this time, it
is relegated to the Tier-2 Scenarios presentation.
Saudi Arabia blasts past Russia
Feb 8th delayed FreeVenue public release of Nov 7th
MemberVenue guidance ~
In a
grudge match that spans three decades, Saudi Arabia has overcome
OPEC quota restrictions to surpass Russia as World's top All Liquids
producer. In the process, the Kingdom broke its annual record
(10.7 Mbd) and also set a new global quarterly record (11.3 Mbd) and
global monthly record (11.4 Mbd) as it boosted flows in its role as
swing producer to replace lost Libya extraction. That said, it
is improbable Russia's 1987 annual/quarterly/monthly records (11.5
Mbd) will ever be surpassed.
In 3rd place, the USA flow of 8.8
Mbd is down a tad from its recent Quarterly high. Following
are: China (4.1), Iran (3.5), Canada (3.4) & Mexico (2.9 Mbd).
Trendlines Research's
All Liquids Underlying Decline Rates Observed in 2011:
Worldwide 3.4% (2.9-mbd), Saudi Arabia 3.2% (0.35-mbd) &
USA 2.5% (0.22-mbd)
click a chart for World Oil Production Records venue
World
Production Records: New Monthly Consumption
Records Improbable 'til Crude Prices Subside
Feb 7th delayed FreeVenue
public release of Nov 7th MemberVenue guidance ~
The pace of flow rates indicates a new global
Annual Production record
of 87.8
Mbd is being set in 2011.
A new global
Quarterly Production record of 89.0 Mbd
was set in 2011Q3.
September 2011 gains distinction for the all time
global Monthly Production record: 89.1 Mbd.
Production is on track to break 90 in
January 2013 and 95 in 2019.
A
new
Quarterly record for Demand
of
89.3 Mbd was set in 2011Q3. September
2011 also set a new high mark for Monthly Demand:
89.9 Mbd ... an incredible leap from the Recession
low for Consumption of 82.5-mbd in May 2009.
Because the USA contract crude price currently surpasses
the
Barrel Meter's Peak
Demand Barrier ($102/barrel), it is improbable
consumption levels will increase 'til oil prices
subside...
click
a chart for World Oil Production Records venue
Global
GDP:
Year 2007 5.2%
Year 2008 -0.4%
Year 2009 2.4% Year 2010
4.8% Year
2011
4.3% (pending)
Year 2012 4.4% (est)
2008Q1
2008Q2
2008Q3
2008Q4
2009Q1
2009Q2
2009Q3
2009Q4
2010Q1
2010Q2
2010Q3
2010Q4
2011Q1
2011Q2
2011Q3
2011Q4
3.9%
1.4%
-0.6%
-6.3%
-5.5%
4.2%
5.0%
5.7%
5.9%
4.8%
3.9%
4.5%
4.3%
3.7%
3.6%
3.6%
est
G-20
Nations in Technical or Severe Recession:
USA
21% of Global GDP
USA Japan
Germany France Italy
38% of Global GDP
USA Japan
Germany France Italy
38% of Global GDP
USA Japan
Germany UK France Italy Mexico
43% of Global GDP
USA Japan Germany UK
Russia France Brazil Italy Canada Turkey Mexico
SouthAfrica
53% of Global GDP
USA
Japan Germany UK Russia France
Brazil Italy Canada Turkey Mexico
SouthAfrica
53% of Global GDP
UK Russia
Italy Canada
SouthAfrica Turkey
27%
of Global GDP
UK Turkey
Russia
8%
of Global GDP
Russia
3%
of Global GDP
nil
nil
Japan
8%
of Global GDP
Japan
8% of Global GDP
Japan
8% of Global GDP
pending:
Japan
8% of Global GDP
And Not
in Recession in 2011Q1:
USA, China, Germany, France, UK, Italy,
Brazil,
Canada, Russia, India, Australia, Mexico, South Korea,
Turkey, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa &
Argentina (in
order of GDP & comprising
69% of worldwide GDP; excludes 20th
membership, courtesy to EU). The remaining
160 nations comprise only 23% of worldwide GDP
click here for more G-20 graphs &
full discussion.
USA Debt
Wall
- Structural Deficits Leading to Treasuries Crisis in 2022
Jan 9
2012
delayed FreeVenue public release of Oct 9th MemberVenue guidance ~
After a decade monitoring the issue, Trendlines Research began
publishing alerts in early 2009 warning the USA Federal Gov't is
headed for an inevitable financial crisis related to its weekly
Treasury auctions. With concern over the integrity of
sovereign debt, bond vigilantes are increasingly monitoring
Deficit/GDP & Nat'l-Debt/GDP ratios. It appears the current
Wall Street spotlight on European nations will be donned on American
Treasury activities within eleven short years.
Building on certain measures within the January Obama Budget, the
Tea-Party was instrumental in using the Debt Limit vote to
negotiate further present-decade expenditure cuts. This served
to postpone the Deficit/GDP ratio exceeding 3% 'til 2022.
However, all the good seemingly good intentions only means the Debt
by 2021 will $23 billion instead of $22 billion. And that sets
the date for my forecasted first sovereign debt downgrade ... to "B"
from "A". 3% has long been the accepted threshold past which
it is difficult for a jurisdiction to maintain sustainable budgets.
Indeed the USA is three times that today, but sunsetting of
Recession fiscal policy measures and this Summer's scheduled cuts
should see the ratio dip to 1.0% in 2018. After that date and
barring further intervention, structural deficits take command of
the USA's demise taking the Deficit/GDP ratio to 24% over the next
three decades.
The Federal Gov't is on a path to double today's $15-trillion
National Debt by 2026 and triple it by 2032. When we commenced
this graphic, most buyers of US Treasuries were unaware of these
precise numbers, but they have had a sense for a while that
America's fiscal well being was suffering from substantial
mismanagement and a potentially unsustainable future.
click chart for
Debt Wall's
full discussion...
Conservatives
were in post-Debates free fall 'til Launch of SunNews
May 4 2011 delayed
FreeVenue public release of MemberVenue guidance
~ Release of Freddy Hutter's Antweiler-based riding projection
reveals the Conservatives were in free fall after the Leaders'
Debates, but a reversal in fortunes coincided with the April 18th
launch of the right-wing cable channel SunNews. Support
for PM Harper fell by 22 MPs in the six days following the April
11/12 Debates, then began the historic comeback to a 167 Majority.
It is said that the CTV Mike Duffy exposure of Dion's "Can we do
this again" outtake was the turning pint in October 2008.
Similarly, I would venture the Bell/CTV decision to air SunNews from
Launch to Election despite the fee dispute was instrumental in this
week's outcome.
May 3 2011
~ Again this year Trendlines has rated the 14 international efforts
comprising our 14-model Avg daily tracking chart. As in 2008,
best-in-class was our own Antweiler-based projection! The
Scoreboard includes each model's success for the
2011/2008/2007/2006/2004 Federal & Ontario elections.
click chart for table,
full discussion & blog of our 4 Federal campaigns...
These are our most
recent free charts ... please click a graph or the
venue links below for more charts, tables & full
discussion ... or for $10/month
join & get the
real-time
versions!
I'm pleased
to tell TRENDLiners this past Winter 82% of visitors were
International (113 nations: most from USA, UK,
Argentina, Australia, France, Italy, Spain, Austria, Germany & Hong Kong)
clik to follow
(@TrendlinesDotCa) for new chart alerts
Trendlines
Research
... Long-Term multidisciplinary Perspectives by Freddy Hutter
![[New!]](../images/smallnew.gif){kind=small}
Jan update of
Australia,
UK
&
USA
2011 update of 
TRENDLines
![[Under Construction]](../images/undercon.gif){kind=small}
