|
Global
GDP:
Year 2007 5.2%
Year 2008 -0.4%
Year 2009
2.4%
Year 2010
4.8% Year 2011
4.3%
(pending)
Year 2012 4.4% (est) |
|
|
|
2008Q1 |
2008Q2 |
2008Q3 |
2008Q4 |
2009Q1 |
2009Q2 |
2009Q3 |
2009Q4 |
2010Q1 |
2010Q2 |
2010Q3 |
2010Q4 |
2011Q1 |
2011Q2 |
2011Q3 |
2011Q4 |
|
3.9% |
1.4% |
-0.6% |
-6.3% |
-5.5% |
4.2% |
5.0% |
5.7% |
5.9% |
4.8% |
3.9% |
4.5% |
4.3% |
3.7% |
3.6% |
3.6% est |
|
G-20 Nations in Technical or Severe Recession: |
|
USA
21% of Global GDP |
USA
Japan Germany France Italy
38% of Global GDP |
USA
Japan Germany France Italy
38% of Global GDP |
USA
Japan Germany
UK
France Italy Mexico
43% of Global GDP |
USA Japan Germany UK
Russia France Brazil Italy Canada Turkey
Mexico SouthAfrica
53% of Global GDP |
USA
Japan Germany
UK Russia France Brazil
Italy Canada Turkey Mexico SouthAfrica
53% of Global GDP |
UK Russia
Italy Canada
SouthAfrica Turkey
27%
of Global GDP |
UK
Turkey
Russia
8%
of Global GDP |
Russia
3%
of Global GDP |
nil |
nil |
Japan
8%
of Global GDP |
Japan
8%
of Global GDP |
Japan
8%
of Global GDP
|
pending:
Japan
8%
of Global GDP |
|
|
And Not in
Recession in 2011Q1:
USA, China, Germany,
France,
UK,
Italy,
Brazil,
Canada,
Russia,
India, Australia,
Mexico,
South Korea, Turkey,
Indonesia, Saudi Arabia,
South Africa &
Argentina (in
order of GDP & comprising
69% of worldwide GDP; excludes 20th
membership, courtesy to EU). The remaining 160 nations
comprise only 23% of worldwide GDP |
|
G-20 Recession Monitor:
only Japan contracting
Jan 10 2012 delayed
FreeVenue public release of Oct 10th MemberVenue guidance ~ Global
GDP in 2011Q3 is running at a 3.6% pace and transitioned from
"recovery" to cycle "expansion" mode in Feb/2010. Real GDP was
-6.3% at the depth of the Recession in 2008Q4. Japan and
Canada are the only G-20 nations contracting today. Japan's
earthquake/tsunami induced downturn is a Technical Recession.
Barrel Meter
analysis reveals a new round of fossil-fuel induced G-20 Recessions
was narrowly averted. Crude price reached $113 (avg) in April,
a tad shy of the $116/barrel threshold which signals breach of a
definitive Crude-Cost/GDP ratio to which several nations would be
vulnerable. Contract oil has since drifted to $96 and is
presently forecast to briefly flirt with $62 in July 2013 in the
absence of OPEC intervention.
The duration of the
global Recession was 2008Q3 to 2009Q1. Despite the mainstream
media hysteria, at its worse only 12 G-20 nations (representing 53%
of global GDP) were in Recession. 2008's -0.4% GDP decline was
the first annual global contraction in the last four decades.
The repercussions of
the 2011 oil price spike did impact the USA auto sector. Since
Nov-2009, the
TRENDLines
Barrel Meter
&
Gas Pump
models had been forecasting unit sales of New Cars & Light Trucks
would suffer the same fate of 1980, 1990 & 2007 if a definitive
Gasoline/GDP ratio was again surpassed. A breach of this
threshold occurred @ $90/barrel ($3.26/gallon pump) in early
February 2011 and the auto sector rebound was immediately truncated.
Annualized sales fell from 13.2 million units/yr in February to 11.5
mu/yr in June 2011. It is improbable unit sales will exceed
the 14 mu/yr pace 'til crude returns to the low 90's (under
$3.50/gallon.
The
pre-Recession high for global merchandise exports occurred in April
2008. After declining 20% by May 2009, its rebound finally
breached the former high water mark in November 2010. Figures
for July 2011 reveal these exports are now 3% above the 2008 record.
Debasement of the USDollar enabled the USA to break its
pre-Recession Exports of goods record (July 2008) in March 2011 with
the latest record being set in April 2011.
GPM Netherlands
A long
term effect of the recent downturn will be an
acceleration in China's overtaking the USA as the
largest Economy. I determine this event will
occur in 2041 ... a mere 30 years away. In turn,
India's demographics create the situation whereby it is
poised to take back the title of largest economy in
2075.
|
![[New!]](../../../images/smallnew.gif){kind=small}
TRENDLines G-20 Recessions Monitor: Japan contracting
monthly update of
Monthly update of 
Australia,
UK
&
![[Under Construction]](../../../images/undercon.gif){kind=small}