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2011/May Canada |
2011/Oct
Canada
Ontario |
2011/Oct
Canada
Nfld/Lab |
2012 Canada Quebec |
2012/Nov Race for the White
House |
2013/May
Canada BC |
2014/Aug
Australia |
2015/May
UK |
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what's new, eh?
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![[New!]](../../images/smallnew.gif){kind=small}
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Scroll
down for 3 day old reports too old? via the $4/month April membership special above, no more waiting!! |
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take advantage of our April Membership Special (1-Yr $48) to view real-time coverage of our "4th" federal campaign click here
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May 4 2011 ~ Release of Freddy Hutter's Antweiler-based riding projection reveals the Conservatives were in free fall after the Leaders' Debates, but a reversal in fortunes coincided with the April 18th launch of the right-wing cable channel SunNews. Support for PM Harper fell by 22 MPs in the six days following the April 11/12 Debates, then began the historic comeback to a 167 Majority. It is said that the CTV Mike Duffy exposure of Dion's "Can we do this again" outtake was the turning pint in October 2008. Similarly, I would venture the Bell/CTV decision to air SunNews from Launch to Election despite the fee dispute was instrumental in this week's outcome. For me personally, it was a relief to finally see a Majority win by Canada's governing Conservative Party (CPC). Of the 14 models we tracked this campaign, two were my own and one (left) was the most accurate of the bunch. The CPC again set up the election with negative ads aimed at Her Majesty's Leader of the Loyal Opposition thru the Winter. Similar to the 2008 campaign, this vaulted the CPC from 127 in October to 154 by February. Unlike 2008 however, it was frankly a surprise to me the negative ad bump did not evaporate upon commencement of Opposition ads. The chart also reveals there was little movement until the Leaders' Debates (Apr12-13). Immediately the CPC went into free-fall and hemorrhaged 22 MPs to the three Opposition Parties. Then as I have predicted in my blog for months, the fortunes of the CPC turned around upon the launch date (Apr 18) of Canada's first right-wing Cable News channel ... SunNews. Great timing, eh! In the final week of the campaign much sentiment turned from the Liberal Party & the separatist Bloc Quebecois to the NDP socialists. Election Day results have been added to gauge accuracy.
click any chart for table, full discussion & blog of our 4 Federal campaigns... |
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Archive of past elections:
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Sept 27th ~ Satisfied she can count on support from the Gang of Five to pass Confidence-related legislation and maintain Command of the House, Julia Gillard will attempt to govern despite her Minority status.
click chart for more... |
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May 7 2010 update: Final vote results! Note that support levels for all have virtually returned to where they were on April 13th ... two days prior to the first Leaders Debate. May 6 2010: The conversion of all yesterday's polls reveals Nick Clegg's surge peaked on April 20th (two days prior to the second Leaders Debate). During his run, Clegg garnered sufficient support to take 34 potential seats from the Tories & 24 from Labour. Sentiment has waned for Lib-Dems and to a lesser extent Labour over the fortnite. The Conservatives clearly own the momentum. One senses voters are fearful that the potential of a Labour/Lib-Dem Coalition strikes down their original preferred outcome: scenarios vaulting David Cameron or even Clegg to #10 Downing. The force driving positive Tory sentiment over these two weeks may be sudden cognizance by the electorate that giving Cameron a clear Majority is their only way of ridding themselves of PM Brown. Unfortunately, the chart indicates that on its present trajectory, the Conservative Party is running out of time and will be shy of a Majority victory by May 6th. If they fall short, Gordon Brown could still retain his Prime Ministership via a Coalition agreement with the Liberal Democrat Party. A similar Conservative Coalition with "the Others" is improbable due to the fragmented nature of those MPs. But, an informal alliance with the 6 Unionist MPs from Northern Island could reduce Cameron's working Majority threshold to a more attainable 320. Today's Seat Projection update indicates Cameron's Tories have a Minority lead in the Campaign with 299 MPs (27 short of Majority), while PM Brown's Labour Party has slid to 228 since a recent peak in mid-March. The balance of power is firmly in control of the Liberal Democrats, ahead in 92 seats. The "Others" lead in 31 and may also play a greater role in tight House of Commons votes. The daily chart's "May 5th" data points are derived by averaging results of 5 recognized Riding Projection models (Baxter, Hayfield, LSE & 2 by Hutter) with the input of 9 national pollsters conducted April 30 - May 5 2010. Tardy polls or projections may cause revision of past data.
<< This monthly chart tracks our sentiment & resultant seat conversions over the past 4 years.
click charts for more...
Re-watch the April 15/22/29 Leaders Debates: live streaming @ www.c-span.org, live cable & satellite @ BBC World News (ShawDirect) & tape delay web streaming, cable & satellite @ www.cpac.ca |
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May 13th ~ The Liberal Party has a 49-36 Majority victory over the NDP. Tentative Congrat's to Nick Boragina (52), Milton Chan (46) & Kennedy Stewart (52) on their excellent projections!! They bettered TrendLines multi-model AVG (53) last nite. Similarly, Congrat's to Glen Robbins for the most accurate opinion poll... Of interest: Indep't Vicki Huntington lost by only two votes. None of the Greens garnered 4,000 votes. May 11th (10pm) ~ Gordon Campbell goes into tomorrow's Election with a 53-32 lead over the NDP, as indicated by the average of 7 seat projection models and their analysis of polls and canvassing to May 10th. The final tally for the Liberal Party includes: Milton Chan - 46, Nick Boragina - 52, Kennedy Stewart - 52, Freddy Hutter via Hill & Knowlton Predictor - 54, Bernard von Schulmann - 55, Freddy Hutter via Antweiler Voter Migration Matrix (AVVM) - 57 & Freddy Hutter's Long-Term Momentum Indicator - 58. click chart for more |
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Dec 7 2008 ~ With collapse of Dumont's ADQ a virtual certainty, the Charest Liberals are poised for a 73 - 49 Majority over the Party Quebecois, with 3 for ADQ. Today's TrendLines Research targets are based primarily on conversion of 3 Provincial polls conducted Nov 28 - Dec 5 (Angus Reid, CROP & Leger) by 4 seat projection models: Nick Boragina, ÉrikG (308dotcom), Greg Morrow (DemocraticSpace) & our own application of the H&K Predictor ... plus a final overlay of our momentum targets. Dec 8 ~ Congrat's to ÉricG (threehundredeight.com) on this year's best forecast! See how each of the 4 models fared via our Scoreboard (click chart) click chart for more |
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#1 Projection in 2008! Nov 6 2008 ~ TrendLines Research Monthly Tracker was the most accurate projection model of the 2008 Campaign ... followed by Paul Adams (EKOS) & Socialist Paul (Paulitics). This chart was not publicly available during the Campaign, but has been familiar to TrendLiners as our "between-writ" chart since April 2005. |
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#1 Projection Model across 4 Elections! Nov 6 2008 ~ With a 4th place finish in 2008, TrendLines Research Daily Multi-Model Tracker becomes the most accurate of all the online projection models that attempted to predict the 2004/2006/2008 Canada & 2007 Ontario Elections ... followed by Barry Kay (LISPOP) & Milton Chan. |
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Nov 5 2008 ~ As in 2004, TrendLines Research again had the best Electoral College Vote projection by North American Pollsters. If their "too close to call" attributions of 53 & 64 are split between the Candidates, our 343 Obama tracking was followed by predictions of 338 by Zogby & 332 by Rasmussen respectively. click chart for details |
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Oct 15 2008 - Looking at only the "headliner" Riding Projections (those that were WWWeb available to the public, analysts & pundits alike during the Campaign), this year's best of class was Paul Adams of EKOS Research. This model was second best in 2004 & n/a in 2006. In second place this year was anonymous Paul of Socialist Investigations (Paulitics) using his proprietary Arithmetic (Universal Swing) methodology. There was a tie for 3rd place honours: Again is Paulitics, this time using its Geometric methodology that applies the Werner Antweiler Voter Matrix Forecaster. Paul used it to tie for 1st place in the 2007 Ontario Election. The other is our own TrendLines 14-model Avg. It placed 3rd in 2004, 6th in 2006 & 4th in Ontario 2007. After three Federal Elections and the Ontario contest, this multi-model Avg is now the overall leader of Riding Projection indicators, displacing Milton Chan. Chan's 13th of 16 placing last nite on top of a dismal 8th of ten in Ontario last year is cause for ElectionPrediction's recent fall from grace. Similarly, Greg Morrow's fleeting notoriety is perhaps irreparably tarnished with a 12th of 16 yesterday following DemocraticSpace's 7th of 10 in the Ontario campaign. click chart for details |
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Click above charts for more info! |
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Click above charts for more info! |
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(75% Prediction Rating) While many pundits were fooled by conflicting polls in the 2007 Quebec Election, TrendLines Research was rare in predicting that Jean Charest's Liberal Party would salvage victory. Meanwhile, Mario Dumont's ADO have changed the complexion and outlook of Quebec politics. Neither the Federal nor Provincial Liberals own the anti-Separatist vision any longer. This Election marked a seachange in Quebec & Canadian poltics.
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Below is a sampling of our other targets vs results: Our Overall Prediction Success Rating since 2004 is 88% |
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(67% &
82% Prediction Ratings) Below
is our 2006 call in the Yukon. Everyone else was
predicting a Liberal Victory. Wrong!
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we won't know how we did on this one 'til the Secession vote!
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(95%
Prediction
Rating) Below, Larry Bagnell retains his Yukon Riding in
the Federal Election. And the Conservatives can't believe
they finished third...
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Not bad, eh?!
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Our inaugural Projection Chart is based on polling by IRI. It builds on our mostly successful predictions in Australia, Ontario, Newfoundland/Labrador, the Yukon, Quebec, the past two Canadian Federal Elections & Electoral College results for the 2004 USA Presidential Election. |
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Our inaugural Projection Chart is based on an avg of five recognized projection models which base their conversion on current public opinion polling. It builds on our mostly successful predictions in Ontario, Newfoundland/Labrador, the Yukon, Quebec, the past two Canadian Federal Elections & Electoral College results for the 2004 USA Presidential Election. |
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Our inaugural Projection Chart is based on the running of 150 post-2005 Election polls thru the models; and builds on our mostly successful predictions in the Yukon, Quebec, the past two Canadian Federal Elections & Electoral College results for the 2004 USA Presidential Election. |
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Our Projection is based on Opinion data mainly from the Yury Lavada Analytical Centre and builds on our mostly successful predictions in the Yukon, Quebec, the past two Canadian Federal Elections & Electoral College results for the 2004 USA Presidential Election. |
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Our 1st Nwfld&Lab Seat Projection is based on mostly successful predictions in the Yukon, Quebec, the past two Federal Elections & Electoral College results for the 2004 USA Presidential Election. |
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April 7th 2007 -
TrendLines is pleased to introduce our Ontario Provincial Riding
Projection for the General Election scheduled for Oct 10th 2007.
As the weeks go by
we'll elaborate further on our methodology and musings. Our 1st Ontario Seat Projection is built on successful predictions in the Yukon, Quebec, the past two Federal Elections & Electoral College projections for the 2004 USA Presidential Election. |
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As the weeks go by we'll elaborate on our methodology and musings. This is our 3rd Federal Election MP Seat Projection. Successful predictions in the Yukon & Quebec will see us expand shortly to introduce the October 10th Ontario Election as well. |
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Mario Dumont of the ADQ is no doubt Canada's politician of the Year with today's outstanding performance. Further, it has immense national implications. Nobody in Canada had heard of "the fiscal imbalance" before Gilles Duceppe's bringing it to the forefront. He must be given credit for alerting Canadians to this sore point in Quebec. In turn, Stephen Harper agreed at the time to address the issue and took the first bold step via last week's Budget amid widespread criticism. Well, a week later we awake to a Quebec with a whole new landscape ... one void of the PQ as a viable political option for the Quebecois. Well done. Pollster totals were reasonable correct for the Liberals & PQ; but failed to catch an Election Day move by Green Party supporters (2.4%) to the ADQ. This was the margin in the three way races. In BC in 2004, the Green Party vote splits robbed the NDP of governance. Today, last minute Green Party disloyalty and/or strategic voting displaced the Opposition. Federalists in the Province of Quebec have a new home. Tomorrow is the first day of the end of the Secessionist Movement in Quebec. Scroll above/below or use the menu for our Federal, Ontario, Yukon & USA "Race for the Whitehouse" projections.
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March 1st 2007 - Please note that the TrendLines Federal Riding Projections will re-commence on April 5th !! Evalina and i were fortunate to meet PM Stephen Harper during his visit to the Yukon to open the Canada Winter Games last month. The PM has cast aside his ideological bias in recent months to facilitate governance rather than Party preference. It is a strategy that has untold ramifications wrt gaining new sentiment while alienating some core support. |
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These are our most recent free charts ... please click a graph or the specialty links below for more charts & discussion
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