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Race-for-the-WhiteHouse:
Post-Mortem
Nov 7
2012 ~ Conversion of final polling data had inferred a 293-205 Obama
lead after the final weekend and extrapolation of the general trend
suggested a subdued 277-261 Obama victory. The apparent
332-206 final result (55 ECV error) differs significantly from
expectations...
With all
the economic issues facing the USA and its federal gov't, one asks
today how was it the republic failed in its opportunity to elect a
successful businessman with proven political executive experience to
the office of the Presidency. Some would say the roots are in
the flawed Republican Party Primary system where a candidate may be
forced to adopt (temporary) extreme positions on issues dear to its
religious zealots in some key States in order to secure the
nomination. Others would say the campaign was poorly run as
illustrated by its tendency to allow the Obama campaign and the
leftist media to dictate the daily and weekly narrative. As
such, this never became "the economy election" and social
issues, tax returns and the 47% derailed the desired Romney message.
A
dominant conclusion of last nite's results is reflected in this
turn-of-phrase gone viral on the WWWeb today: "Ask Not what
you can do for your country; ask what your country can do for You."
It is also evident the USA faces two to four years of status-quo
political gridlock. This is entirely inopportune 'cuz
Congressional failure to address its
Debt Wall
virtually ensures a Greek-scale treasuries yield crisis within a
dozen years. According to the
TRENDLines Recession Indicator,
addressing in the short term its massive trillion dollar Deficits
could have avoided an ultimate Structural Depression. But with
the USA lacking the political leadership necessary to implement a
sea change in its course, the model concludes that even if such
change is implemented in 2016, the USA economy shall not have
sufficient time to avoid an event which has the makings of a
full-fledged Structural Greater Depression...
Among polling firms,
Trendlines Research produced the most accurate ECV forecasts in 2004
& 2008.
Click chart for guidance, USA election venue
archive
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"4th"
federal campaign
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Conservatives
were in post-Debates free fall 'til Launch of SunNews
May 4 2011
~ Release of Freddy Hutter's Antweiler-based riding projection
reveals the Conservatives were in free fall after the Leaders'
Debates, but a reversal in fortunes coincided with the April 18th
launch of the right-wing cable channel SunNews. Support
for PM Harper fell by 22 MPs in the six days following the April
11/12 Debates, then began the historic comeback to a 167 Majority.
It is said that the CTV Mike Duffy exposure of Dion's "Can we do
this again" outtake was the turning pint in October 2008.
Similarly, I would venture the Bell/CTV decision to air SunNews from
Launch to Election despite the fee dispute was instrumental in this
week's outcome.
For me personally, it
was a relief to finally see a Majority win by Canada's governing
Conservative Party (CPC). Of the 14 models we tracked this
campaign, two were my own and one (left) was the most accurate of
the bunch. The CPC again set up the election with negative ads
aimed at Her Majesty's Leader of the Loyal Opposition thru the
Winter. Similar to the 2008 campaign, this vaulted the CPC from 127
in October to 154 by February. Unlike 2008 however, it was frankly
a surprise to me the negative ad bump did not evaporate upon
commencement of Opposition ads. The chart also reveals there was
little movement until the Leaders' Debates (Apr12-13). Immediately
the CPC went into free-fall and hemorrhaged 22 MPs to the three
Opposition Parties. Then as I have predicted in my blog for months,
the fortunes of the CPC turned around upon the launch date (Apr 18)
of Canada's first right-wing Cable News channel ... SunNews. Great
timing, eh! In the final week of the campaign much sentiment turned
from the Liberal Party & the separatist Bloc Quebecois to the NDP
socialists. Election Day results have been added to gauge accuracy.
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Backgrounder ~
the 2004
election campaign is remembered for our depiction of the
CPC's brief flirtation with a projected Majority looking
forward to Election Day, only to have voters back away from
that precipice and settle with status quo. In Sept 2005, we
saw multiple calls by the lame-stream media for Harper's
replacement as CPC Leader for botching the floor-crossing
affair and providing the Paul Martin Liberals with a
potential 161 MP Majority. Our projections showed the
Conservatives claw back to briefly take the lead by
November. The Liberals also struggled back to the lead but
our projections were first to reveal Harper had taken a
permanent lead on January 1st 2006, then went on to a
Minority victory later in the month. In the hours before PM
Harper visited the GovGen in early September 2008 to drop
the writ, our blog warned that his intent to
spit-in-the-face of his own fixed election day legislation
would prompt the Opposition to form a Coalition if the CPC
did not attain a Majority. He didn't listen and they did !
Today there is much irony in this year's election. The NDP
didn't want it and they did best. Unfortunately, before the
writ they held the balance of power and now they only get to
watch from the sidelines (minority vs majority). The
Liberals were the great instigator of the non-Confidence
vote ... and were decimated. The BQ were facilitators of
the unneeded election and paid the ultimate price ...
gonzo. The CPC didn't want an election ... and they were
rewarded with the elusive Majority! Next stop ... Oct
19 2015. |
click any chart for table,
full discussion & blog of our 4 Federal campaigns...
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So, who had the best of
14 models this year? ...
visit the 2011 Scoreboard
May 3 2011
~ Again this year Trendlines has rated the 14 international efforts
comprising our 14-model Avg daily tracking chart. As in 2008,
best-in-class was our own Antweiler-based projection! The
Scoreboard includes each model's success for the
2011/2008/2007/2006/2004 Federal & Ontario elections.
At left is the final chart for the
14-model avg (4th best of 15 forecasts) comparing its targets with
Election Day results. |
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Sept 27 2010 ~ Satisfied she can count
on support from the Gang of Five to pass Confidence-related
legislation and maintain Command of the House, Julia Gillard will
attempt to govern despite her Minority status.
click
chart for more...
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May 7 2010
update: Final vote results! Note that support levels for
all have virtually returned to where they were on April 13th ... two
days prior to the first Leaders Debate.
May 6
2010: The conversion of all yesterday's polls
reveals Nick Clegg's surge peaked on April 20th (two days prior to
the second Leaders Debate). During his run, Clegg garnered
sufficient support to take 34 potential seats from the Tories & 24 from Labour.
Sentiment has waned for Lib-Dems and to a lesser extent Labour over the fortnite.
The Conservatives
clearly own the momentum. One senses voters are fearful
that the potential of a
Labour/Lib-Dem Coalition strikes down their original preferred
outcome: scenarios vaulting David Cameron or even
Clegg to #10 Downing.
The force
driving positive Tory sentiment over these two weeks may be sudden
cognizance by the electorate that giving
Cameron a clear Majority is their only way of ridding themselves of
PM Brown. Unfortunately, the chart indicates that on its present trajectory,
the Conservative Party
is running out of time and will be shy of a Majority victory by May 6th.
If they fall short, Gordon Brown could still retain his Prime Ministership via a Coalition agreement with the Liberal Democrat
Party.
A similar Conservative Coalition with "the Others" is improbable due
to the fragmented nature of those MPs. But, an informal
alliance with the 6 Unionist MPs from Northern Island could reduce
Cameron's working Majority threshold to a more attainable 320.
Today's Seat Projection update indicates Cameron's Tories have a Minority lead in
the Campaign with 299 MPs (27 short of Majority), while PM Brown's Labour Party
has slid to 228 since a recent peak in mid-March. The balance of power is firmly in
control of the Liberal Democrats, ahead in 92
seats. The "Others" lead in 31 and may also
play a greater role in tight House of Commons votes.
The daily chart's "May
5th"
data points are derived by averaging results of 5
recognized
Riding Projection models
(Baxter, Hayfield, LSE & 2 by Hutter) with the input of 9 national
pollsters
conducted April 30 - May 5 2010. Tardy polls or
projections may cause revision of past data.
<< This monthly chart
tracks our sentiment & resultant seat conversions over the past 4 years.
click charts for more...
Re-watch the April 15/22/29 Leaders
Debates: live streaming @
www.c-span.org, live cable & satellite @ BBC World News (ShawDirect)
& tape delay web streaming, cable & satellite @ www.cpac.ca
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May 13th ~ The Liberal Party has a 49-36
Majority victory over the NDP. Tentative Congrat's to Nick
Boragina (52), Milton Chan (46) & Kennedy Stewart (52) on their
excellent projections!! They bettered TrendLines multi-model
AVG (53) last nite.
Similarly, Congrat's
to Glen Robbins for the most accurate opinion poll...
Of interest:
Indep't Vicki Huntington lost by only two votes. None of the
Greens garnered 4,000 votes.
May 11th (10pm) ~ Gordon Campbell
goes into tomorrow's Election with a 53-32 lead over the NDP, as indicated by the average of
7 seat projection models
and their analysis of polls and canvassing to May 10th.
The final tally for
the Liberal Party includes: Milton Chan - 46, Nick Boragina -
52, Kennedy Stewart
- 52, Freddy Hutter via Hill & Knowlton
Predictor - 54, Bernard von Schulmann - 55, Freddy Hutter via
Antweiler Voter Migration Matrix (AVVM) - 57 & Freddy Hutter's
Long-Term Momentum Indicator - 58.
click chart for
more |
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Dec 7 2008 ~ With collapse of Dumont's ADQ a virtual certainty, the
Charest Liberals are poised for a 73 - 49 Majority over the
Party
Quebecois, with 3 for ADQ.
Today's
TrendLines Research targets are based primarily on conversion of 3
Provincial polls conducted Nov 28 - Dec 5 (Angus Reid, CROP & Leger)
by 4 seat projection models: Nick Boragina, ÉrikG (308dotcom),
Greg Morrow (DemocraticSpace) & our own application of the H&K
Predictor ... plus a final overlay of our momentum targets.
Dec 8 ~ Congrat's
to ÉricG (threehundredeight.com)
on this year's best forecast!
See how each of
the 4 models fared via our Scoreboard (click chart)
click chart for
more |
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#1
Projection in 2008!
Nov 6 2008 ~ TrendLines Research Monthly Tracker
was the most accurate projection model of the 2008 Campaign ...
followed by Paul Adams (EKOS) & Socialist Paul (Paulitics). This
chart was not publicly available during the Campaign, but has been
familiar to TrendLiners as our "between-writ" chart since
April 2005. |
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#1
Projection Model across 4 Elections!
Nov 6 2008 ~ With a 4th place finish in 2008,
TrendLines Research Daily Multi-Model Tracker becomes the
most accurate of all the online projection models that attempted to
predict the 2004/2006/2008 Canada & 2007 Ontario Elections ...
followed by Barry Kay (LISPOP) & Milton Chan. |
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Nov 5
2008 ~
As in 2004, TrendLines Research again had the best Electoral College
Vote projection by North American Pollsters.
If their "too
close to call" attributions of 53 & 64 are split between the
Candidates,
our 343 Obama
tracking was followed by predictions of 338 by Zogby & 332 by
Rasmussen respectively.
click chart for details
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Oct 15 2008 -
Looking at only the
"headliner" Riding Projections (those that were WWWeb available to
the public, analysts & pundits alike during the Campaign), this
year's best of class was Paul Adams of EKOS Research. This
model was second best in 2004 & n/a in 2006.
In second place this year was
anonymous
Paul of Socialist
Investigations (Paulitics)
using his
proprietary Arithmetic
(Universal Swing) methodology.
There was a tie for
3rd place honours: Again is
Paulitics,
this time using its Geometric methodology that applies the
Werner
Antweiler Voter Matrix Forecaster. Paul used it to
tie for 1st place in
the 2007 Ontario Election. The
other is our own TrendLines 14-model Avg. It placed 3rd in
2004, 6th in 2006 & 4th in Ontario 2007. After three Federal
Elections and the Ontario contest, this multi-model Avg is
now the overall leader of Riding Projection indicators, displacing
Milton Chan.
Chan's 13th of 16 placing last nite on top of a dismal 8th of
ten in Ontario last year is cause for ElectionPrediction's
recent fall from grace. Similarly, Greg Morrow's fleeting notoriety
is perhaps irreparably tarnished with a 12th of 16 yesterday
following DemocraticSpace's 7th of 10 in the Ontario
campaign.
click chart for details |
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Click above charts for
more info! |
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Click above charts for
more info! |
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(75%
Prediction Rating) While
many pundits were fooled by conflicting polls in the 2007 Quebec
Election, TrendLines Research was rare in predicting that Jean
Charest's Liberal Party would salvage victory. Meanwhile,
Mario Dumont's ADO have changed the complexion and outlook of Quebec
politics. Neither the Federal nor Provincial Liberals own the
anti-Separatist vision any longer. This Election marked a
seachange in Quebec & Canadian poltics.
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Below
is a sampling of our other targets vs results:
Our
Overall Prediction Success Rating since 2004 is 88% |
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(93% Prediction Rating)
Below is our intuitive tracking of John Howard's loss in Australia:
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(94%
Prediction Rating) Below
is the long term tracking and our Ontario Call.
The Election was October, but we knew McGuinty's
Liberals would win back in June!
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(92%
Prediction Rating) Below is
our 2007 tracking of the Newfoundland/Labrador Election:
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(67% &
82% Prediction Ratings) Below
is our 2006 call in the Yukon. Everyone else was
predicting a Liberal Victory. Wrong!
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kAcknowledging
the fact that Larry Bagnell was truly appreciated as a dedicated
MP but now found on the wrong side of the House of Commons for
his role in bringing the bucks back from Ottawa, Evalina wanted
to gauge the opinion of folks in the Yukon on whether our MP
would better serve us on the Gov't side instead of holding his
allegiance with those corrupt Liberals. It seems the time
is not yet quite right, eh! |
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"The West Wants In" was Stephen Harper's rally cry coined for
Preston Harper a dozen years ago. On Jan 23 2006 it became "the
west is in!!" And we can see in this chart that Yukoners
could sense in the lead up months that a sea change was underway...
we
won't know how we did on this one 'til the Secession vote!
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(95%
Prediction
Rating) Below, Larry Bagnell retains his Yukon Riding in
the Federal Election. And the Conservatives can't believe
they finished third...
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(81%
Prediction
Rating) Below, Stephen Harper Snatches
Victory Late in the Campaign. TrendLines Research called his
win back in November!!
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(97%
Prediction
Rating) Below, our first effort in the controversial Yukon
By-Election. Everyone thought Cynthia was winning...
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(98%
Prediction Rating) Below
is our projection for Bush's 2004 Electoral College win. His final tally on
Election Day was 286!! We also called the Democrat lead in popular
opinion.
Not bad, eh?!
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(82%
Prediction
Rating) Below, Stephen Harper's Conservatives
took the Lead during the 2004 Federal Campaign, but it was not to be
& most everyone got fooled on this one:
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Dec 23rd 2007 - TrendLines is pleased to introduce our sentiment poll tracking
for the Pakistan General Assembly Election on Jan 8 2006.
We'll elaborate further on our methodology and musings.
Our inaugural Projection
Chart is based on
polling by IRI. It
builds on our mostly successful
predictions in Australia, Ontario, Newfoundland/Labrador, the Yukon, Quebec, the past two Canadian Federal Elections &
Electoral College results for the 2004 USA Presidential
Election. |
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Nov
13th 2007 - TrendLines is pleased to introduce our Australian Seat
Projection for the Federal Election on Nov 24 2007. We'll elaborate further on our methodology and musings.
Our inaugural Projection
Chart is based on
an avg of five recognized projection models which base their
conversion on current public opinion polling. It
builds on our mostly successful
predictions in Ontario, Newfoundland/Labrador, the Yukon, Quebec, the past two Canadian Federal Elections &
Electoral College results for the 2004 USA Presidential
Election. |
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Sept 9th 2007 -
TrendLines is pleased to introduce our United Kingdom Riding
Projection for the General Election due by June 3rd 2010.
As the
months go by
we'll elaborate further on our methodology and musings.
Our inaugural Projection
Chart is based on
the running of 150 post-2005 Election polls thru the models; and
builds on our mostly successful
predictions in the Yukon, Quebec, the past two Canadian Federal Elections &
Electoral College results for the 2004 USA Presidential
Election. |
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June 30th 2007 -
TrendLines is pleased to introduce our Russian
Sentiment
Projection for the Presidential Election scheduled for March 2008.
As the weeks go by
we'll elaborate further on our methodology and musings. First
round voting will be augmented with a run-off Election between the
top two vote getters. Vladimir Putin is constitutionally
prohibited from running for a third mandate.
Our Projection is based on
Opinion data mainly from the Yury Lavada Analytical Centre and
builds on our mostly successful
predictions in the Yukon, Quebec, the past two Canadian Federal Elections &
Electoral College results for the 2004 USA Presidential
Election. |
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 June 10th 2007 -
TrendLines is pleased to introduce our Newfoundland & Labrador Provincial
Sentiment & Riding
Projection for the General Election scheduled for Oct 9th 2007.
As the weeks go by
we'll elaborate further on our methodology and musings.
Our
1st Nwfld&Lab Seat Projection is based on mostly successful
predictions in the Yukon, Quebec, the past two Federal Elections &
Electoral College results for the 2004 USA Presidential
Election. |
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April 7th 2007 -
TrendLines is pleased to introduce our Ontario Provincial Riding
Projection for the General Election scheduled for Oct 10th 2007.
As the weeks go by
we'll elaborate further on our methodology and musings.
Our
1st Ontario Seat Projection is built on successful
predictions in the Yukon, Quebec, the past two Federal Elections &
Electoral College projections for the 2004 USA Presidential
Election. |
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April 1st 2007 -
TrendLines is pleased to re-commence our Federal Riding
Projection. While the next Election is not scheduled by PM
Stephen Harper until Oct 19 2009, the reality of Minority
Gov't is that either the PM or the Opposition could plunge us into
the third Election in less than three years at almost any moment.
While the Conservatives would most certainly only pull the plug upon
prospects of a Majority, the floundering fortunes of the NDP, BQ &
Liberals continue to fan the flames of a writ. Cocky
statements by the Opposition are mostly in jest. IMHO, no
respectable race is possible until former Premier & Ambassador the
USA, Frank McKenna, challenges for the Liberal leadership...
As the weeks go by
we'll elaborate on our methodology and musings. This is our
3rd Federal Election MP Seat Projection. Successful
predictions in the Yukon & Quebec will see us expand shortly to
introduce the October 10th Ontario Election as well. |
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 March 26th 2007
- TrendLines Quebec Election riding projections (based on modeling by Tonie Chaltas & Gregory
Morrow of Opinion Polls to March 24th) vs final Actual
Results:
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TrendLines Final Quebec 2007 Riding Projections: |
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ElectionsQuebec Mar 26th 2007 Actual Tally: |
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51 MNA's |
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48 |
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25 MNA's |
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41 |
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49 MNA's |
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36 |
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125 |
MNA:
Member of the Quebec Nat'l Assembly (Majority = 63 Ridings) |
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Everyone
agreed the political climate had been volatile the last 72 hours ... But this
"Oops" is reminiscent of the NDP Bob Rae catapult in early 90's Ontario!!
Mario Dumont of the ADQ is no
doubt Canada's politician of the Year with today's outstanding performance.
Further, it has immense
national implications. Nobody in Canada had heard of "the fiscal
imbalance" before Gilles Duceppe's bringing it to the forefront. He must
be given credit for alerting Canadians to this sore point in Quebec. In
turn, Stephen Harper agreed at the time to address the issue and took the first
bold step via last week's Budget amid widespread criticism.
Well, a week later we awake to
a Quebec with a whole new landscape ... one void of the PQ as a viable political
option for the Quebecois. Well done.
Pollster totals were reasonable
correct for the Liberals & PQ; but failed to catch an Election Day move by Green
Party supporters (2.4%) to the ADQ. This was the margin in the three way
races. In BC in 2004, the Green Party vote splits robbed the NDP of
governance. Today, last minute Green Party disloyalty and/or strategic
voting displaced the Opposition. Federalists in the Province of Quebec
have a new home. Tomorrow is the first day of the end of the Secessionist
Movement in Quebec.
Scroll above/below or use the menu
for our Federal, Ontario, Yukon & USA "Race for the Whitehouse" projections.
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March 1st 2007 - Please note
that the TrendLines Federal Riding Projections will re-commence on
April 5th !!
Evalina and i were fortunate to
meet PM Stephen Harper during his visit to the Yukon to open the Canada Winter
Games last month. The PM has cast aside his ideological bias in recent
months to facilitate governance rather than Party preference. It is a
strategy that has untold ramifications wrt gaining new sentiment while
alienating some core support. |
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