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Trendlines Research  ...   Long-Term multi-disciplinary Perspectives by Freddy Hutter since 1989

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Elections Home • Canada Federal 2011 • USA's Race-for-the-White-House 2012

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 Future:   2015/Oct Canada   2015/Oct Canada Ontario   2015/Oct Canada Nfld/Lab   2014/Aug Australia   2015/May UK   2016/Aug Canada Quebec   2016/Nov Race for the Whitehouse
 Past:   2012 Race for the Whitehouse 2011 Canada 2010 Australia 2010 UK 2009 Canada BC 2008 Canada Quebec 2008 Race for the WhiteHouse 2008 Canada 2008 Race for the Kremlin 2008 Pakistan 2007 Australia 2007 Canada Ontario 2007 Canada Nfld/Lab 2007 Canada Quebec 2006 Canada Yukon 2006 Canada 2004  Race for the WhiteHouse 2004 Canada

 

 

[New!]elect ~  Nov 7th update of  Race-for-the-WhiteHouse 2012:  Post-Mortem

   Hutter/Antweiler MP Riding Projection  for Canadian Federal Election reveals Conservatives were in post-Debates free-fall 'til Launch of SunNews

   So, who had the best of 14 models this year? ... see the 2011 Scoreboard

 

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  Race-for-the-WhiteHouse:  Post-Mortem

Nov 7 2012 ~ Conversion of final polling data had inferred a 293-205 Obama lead after the final weekend and extrapolation of the general trend suggested a subdued 277-261 Obama victory.  The apparent 332-206 final result (55 ECV error) differs significantly from expectations...

With all the economic issues facing the USA and its federal gov't, one asks today how was it the republic failed in its opportunity to elect a successful businessman with proven political executive experience to the office of the Presidency.  Some would say the roots are in the flawed Republican Party Primary system where a candidate may be forced to adopt (temporary) extreme positions on issues dear to its religious zealots in some key States in order to secure the nomination.  Others would say the campaign was poorly run as illustrated by its tendency to allow the Obama campaign and the leftist media to dictate the daily and weekly narrative.  As such, this never became "the economy election" and social issues, tax returns and the 47% derailed the desired Romney message.

A dominant conclusion of last nite's results is reflected in this turn-of-phrase gone viral on the WWWeb today:  "Ask Not what you can do for your country; ask what your country can do for You."  It is also evident the USA faces two to four years of status-quo political gridlock.  This is entirely inopportune 'cuz Congressional failure to address its Debt Wall virtually ensures a Greek-scale treasuries yield crisis within a dozen years.  According to the TRENDLines Recession Indicator, addressing in the short term its massive trillion dollar Deficits could have avoided an ultimate Structural Depression.  But with the USA lacking the political leadership necessary to implement a sea change in its course, the model concludes that even if such change is implemented in 2016, the USA economy shall not have sufficient time to avoid an event which has the makings of a full-fledged Structural Greater Depression...

Among polling firms, Trendlines Research produced the most accurate ECV forecasts in 2004 & 2008.  Click chart for guidance, USA election venue archive

 

Archive of past elections:

 

 take advantage of our April Membership Special (1-Yr $48) to view real-time coverage of our "4th" federal campaign    click here

 Conservatives were in post-Debates free fall 'til Launch of SunNews

May 4 2011 ~ Release of Freddy Hutter's Antweiler-based riding projection reveals the Conservatives were in free fall after the Leaders' Debates, but a reversal in fortunes coincided with the April 18th launch of the right-wing cable channel SunNews.  Support for PM Harper fell by 22 MPs in the six days following the April 11/12 Debates, then began the historic comeback to a 167 Majority.  It is said that the CTV Mike Duffy exposure of Dion's "Can we do this again" outtake was the turning pint in October 2008.  Similarly, I would venture the Bell/CTV decision to air SunNews from Launch to Election despite the fee dispute was instrumental in this week's outcome.


For me personally, it was a relief to finally see a Majority win by Canada's governing Conservative Party (CPC).  Of the 14 models we tracked this campaign, two were my own and one (left) was the most accurate of the bunch.  The CPC again set up the election with negative ads aimed at Her Majesty's Leader of the Loyal Opposition thru the Winter.  Similar to the 2008 campaign, this vaulted the CPC from 127 in October to 154 by February.  Unlike 2008 however, it was frankly a surprise to me the negative ad bump did not evaporate upon commencement of Opposition ads.  The chart also reveals there was little movement until the Leaders' Debates (Apr12-13).  Immediately the CPC went into free-fall and hemorrhaged 22 MPs to the three Opposition Parties.  Then as I have predicted in my blog for months, the fortunes of the CPC turned around upon the launch date (Apr 18) of Canada's first right-wing Cable News channel ... SunNews.  Great timing, eh!  In the final week of the campaign much sentiment turned from the Liberal Party & the separatist Bloc Quebecois to the NDP socialists.  Election Day results have been added to gauge accuracy.

  Backgrounder ~ the 2004 election campaign is remembered for our depiction of the CPC's brief flirtation with a projected Majority looking forward to Election Day, only to have voters back away from that precipice and settle with status quo.  In Sept 2005, we saw multiple calls by the lame-stream media for Harper's replacement as CPC Leader for botching the floor-crossing affair and providing the Paul Martin Liberals with a potential 161 MP Majority.  Our projections showed the Conservatives claw back to briefly take the lead by November.  The Liberals also struggled back to the lead but our projections were first to reveal Harper had taken a permanent lead on January 1st 2006, then went on to a Minority victory later in the month.  In the hours before PM Harper visited the GovGen in early September 2008 to drop the writ, our blog warned that his intent to spit-in-the-face of his own fixed election day legislation would prompt the Opposition to form a Coalition if the CPC did not attain a Majority.  He didn't listen and they did !  Today there is much irony in this year's election.  The NDP didn't want it and they did best.  Unfortunately, before the writ they held the balance of power and now they only get to watch from the sidelines (minority vs majority).  The Liberals were the great instigator of the non-Confidence vote ... and were decimated.  The BQ were facilitators of the unneeded election and paid the ultimate price ... gonzo.  The CPC didn't want an election ... and they were rewarded with the elusive Majority!  Next stop ... Oct 19 2015.

click any chart for table, full discussion & blog of our 4 Federal campaigns...

So, who had the best of 14 models this year? ... visit the 2011 Scoreboard

May 3 2011 ~ Again this year Trendlines has rated the 14 international efforts comprising our 14-model Avg daily tracking chart.  As in 2008, best-in-class was our own Antweiler-based projection!  The Scoreboard includes each model's success for the 2011/2008/2007/2006/2004 Federal & Ontario elections.

At left is the final chart for the 14-model avg (4th best of 15 forecasts) comparing its targets with Election Day results.

   

Sept 27 2010 ~ Satisfied she can count on support from the Gang of Five to pass Confidence-related legislation and maintain Command of the House, Julia Gillard will attempt to govern despite her Minority status.

 

click chart for more...

 

May 7 2010 update:  Final vote results!  Note that support levels for all have virtually returned to where they were on April 13th ... two days prior to the first Leaders Debate.

May 6 2010:  The conversion of all yesterday's polls reveals Nick Clegg's surge peaked on April 20th (two days prior to the second Leaders Debate).  During his run, Clegg garnered sufficient support to take 34 potential seats from the Tories & 24 from Labour.  Sentiment has waned for Lib-Dems and to a lesser extent Labour over the fortnite.  The Conservatives clearly own the momentum.  One senses voters are fearful that the potential of a Labour/Lib-Dem Coalition strikes down their original preferred outcome:  scenarios vaulting David Cameron or even Clegg to #10 Downing.

The force driving positive Tory sentiment over these two weeks may be sudden cognizance by the electorate that giving Cameron a clear Majority is their only way of ridding themselves of PM Brown.  Unfortunately, the chart indicates that on its present trajectory, the Conservative Party is running out of time and will be shy of a Majority victory by May 6th.  If they fall short, Gordon Brown could still retain his Prime Ministership via a Coalition agreement with the Liberal Democrat Party.  A similar Conservative Coalition with "the Others" is improbable due to the fragmented nature of those MPs.  But, an informal alliance with the 6 Unionist MPs from Northern Island could reduce Cameron's working Majority threshold to a more attainable 320.

Today's Seat Projection update indicates Cameron's Tories have a Minority lead in the Campaign with 299 MPs (27 short of Majority), while PM Brown's Labour Party has slid to 228 since a recent peak in mid-March.  The balance of power is firmly in control of the Liberal Democrats, ahead in 92 seats.  The "Others" lead in 31 and may also play a greater role in tight House of Commons votes.

The daily chart's "May 5th" data points are derived by averaging results of 5 recognized Riding Projection models (Baxter, Hayfield, LSE & 2 by Hutter) with the input of 9 national pollsters conducted April 30 - May 5 2010.  Tardy polls or projections may cause revision of past data.

 

<< This monthly chart tracks our sentiment & resultant seat conversions over the past 4 years.

 

click charts for more...

 

Re-watch the April 15/22/29 Leaders Debates:  live streaming @ www.c-span.org, live cable & satellite @ BBC World News (ShawDirect) & tape delay web streaming, cable & satellite @ www.cpac.ca

 

May 13th ~ The Liberal Party has a 49-36 Majority victory over the NDP.  Tentative Congrat's to Nick Boragina (52), Milton Chan (46) & Kennedy Stewart (52) on their excellent projections!!  They bettered TrendLines multi-model AVG (53) last nite.  Similarly, Congrat's to Glen Robbins for the most accurate opinion poll...

Of interest:  Indep't Vicki Huntington lost by only two votes.  None of the Greens garnered 4,000 votes.

May 11th (10pm) ~ Gordon Campbell goes into tomorrow's Election with a 53-32 lead over the NDP, as indicated by the average of 7 seat projection models and their analysis of polls and  canvassing to May 10th.

The final tally for the Liberal Party includes:  Milton Chan - 46, Nick Boragina - 52, Kennedy Stewart - 52, Freddy Hutter via Hill & Knowlton Predictor - 54, Bernard von Schulmann - 55, Freddy Hutter via Antweiler Voter Migration Matrix (AVVM) - 57 & Freddy Hutter's Long-Term Momentum Indicator - 58.

click chart for more

 

Dec 7  2008 ~ With collapse of Dumont's ADQ a virtual certainty, the Charest Liberals are poised for a 73 - 49 Majority over the Party Quebecois, with 3 for ADQ.

Today's TrendLines Research targets are based primarily on conversion of 3 Provincial polls conducted Nov 28 - Dec 5 (Angus Reid, CROP & Leger) by 4 seat projection models:  Nick Boragina, …rikG (308dotcom), Greg Morrow (DemocraticSpace) & our own application of the H&K Predictor ... plus a final overlay of our momentum targets.

Dec 8 ~ Congrat's to …ricG (threehundredeight.com) on this year's best forecast!

See how each of the 4 models fared via our Scoreboard (click chart)

click chart for more

 

#1 Projection in 2008!

Nov 6 2008 ~ TrendLines Research Monthly Tracker was the most accurate projection model of the 2008 Campaign ... followed by Paul Adams (EKOS) & Socialist Paul (Paulitics). This chart was not publicly available during the Campaign, but has been familiar to TrendLiners as our "between-writ" chart since April 2005.

 #1 Projection Model across 4 Elections!

Nov 6 2008 ~ With a 4th place finish in 2008, TrendLines Research Daily Multi-Model Tracker becomes the most accurate of all the online projection models that attempted to predict the 2004/2006/2008 Canada & 2007 Ontario Elections ... followed by Barry Kay (LISPOP) & Milton Chan.

 

Nov 5 2008 ~ As in 2004, TrendLines Research again had the best Electoral College Vote projection by North American Pollsters.

If their "too close to call" attributions of 53 & 64 are split between the Candidates, our 343 Obama tracking was followed by predictions of 338 by Zogby & 332 by Rasmussen respectively.

click chart for details

 

Oct 15 2008 - Looking at only the "headliner" Riding Projections (those that were WWWeb available to the public, analysts & pundits alike during the Campaign), this year's best of class was Paul Adams of EKOS Research. This model was second best in 2004 & n/a in 2006.

In second place this year was anonymous Paul of Socialist Investigations (Paulitics) using his proprietary Arithmetic (Universal Swing) methodology.

There was a tie for 3rd place honours:  Again is Paulitics, this time using its Geometric methodology that applies the Werner Antweiler Voter Matrix Forecaster. Paul used it to tie for 1st place in the 2007 Ontario Election. The other is our own TrendLines 14-model Avg. It placed 3rd in 2004, 6th in 2006 & 4th in Ontario 2007. After three Federal Elections and the Ontario contest, this multi-model Avg is now the overall leader of Riding Projection indicators, displacing Milton Chan.

Chan's 13th of 16 placing last nite on top of a dismal 8th of ten in Ontario last year is cause for ElectionPrediction's recent fall from grace. Similarly, Greg Morrow's fleeting notoriety is perhaps irreparably tarnished with a 12th of 16 yesterday following DemocraticSpace's 7th of 10 in the Ontario campaign.

click chart for details

Click above charts for more info!

Click above charts for more info!

 

(75% Prediction Rating)  While many pundits were fooled by conflicting polls in the 2007 Quebec Election, TrendLines Research was rare in predicting that Jean Charest's Liberal Party would salvage victory.  Meanwhile, Mario Dumont's ADO have changed the complexion and outlook of Quebec politics.  Neither the Federal nor Provincial Liberals own the anti-Separatist vision any longer.  This Election marked a seachange in Quebec & Canadian poltics.

 

 

 

 Below is a sampling of our other targets vs results:

Our Overall Prediction Success Rating since 2004 is 88%

(93% Prediction Rating)  Below is our intuitive tracking of John Howard's loss in Australia:

 

(94% Prediction Rating)   Below is the long term tracking and our Ontario Call.  The Election was October, but we knew McGuinty's Liberals would  win back in June!

 

(92% Prediction Rating)  Below is our 2007 tracking of the Newfoundland/Labrador Election:

 
(67% & 82% Prediction Ratings)  Below is our 2006 call in the Yukon.  Everyone else was predicting a Liberal Victory.  Wrong!

 

 

kAcknowledging the fact that Larry Bagnell was truly appreciated as a dedicated MP but now found on the wrong side of the House of Commons for his role in bringing the bucks back from Ottawa, Evalina wanted to gauge the opinion of folks in the Yukon on whether our MP would better serve us on the Gov't side instead of holding his allegiance with those corrupt Liberals.  It seems the time is not yet quite right, eh!

 

 

"The West Wants In" was Stephen Harper's rally cry coined for Preston Harper a dozen years ago.  On Jan 23 2006 it became "the west is in!!"  And we can see in this chart that Yukoners could sense in the lead up months that a sea change was underway...

we won't know how we did on this one 'til the Secession vote!

 

 
(95% Prediction Rating)  Below, Larry Bagnell retains his Yukon Riding in the Federal Election.  And the Conservatives can't believe they finished third...

 

(81% Prediction Rating)  Below, Stephen Harper Snatches Victory Late in the Campaign.  TrendLines Research called his win back in November!!

 

 

(97% Prediction Rating)  Below, our first effort in the controversial Yukon By-Election. Everyone thought Cynthia was winning...

 

(98% Prediction Rating)  Below is our projection for Bush's 2004 Electoral College win.  His final tally on Election Day was 286!!  We also called the Democrat lead in popular opinion.

Not bad, eh?!

 

 

(82% Prediction Rating)  Below, Stephen Harper's Conservatives took the Lead during the 2004 Federal Campaign, but it was not to be & most everyone got fooled on this one:

 

Dec 23rd  2007 - TrendLines is pleased to introduce our sentiment poll tracking for the Pakistan General Assembly Election on Jan 8 2006.  We'll elaborate further on our methodology and musings.

Our inaugural Projection Chart is based on polling by IRI.  It builds on our mostly successful predictions in Australia, Ontario, Newfoundland/Labrador, the Yukon, Quebec, the past two Canadian Federal Elections & Electoral College results for the 2004 USA Presidential Election.

 

Nov 13th 2007 - TrendLines is pleased to introduce our Australian Seat Projection for the Federal Election on Nov 24 2007.  We'll elaborate further on our methodology and musings.

Our inaugural Projection Chart is based on an avg of five recognized projection models which base their conversion on current public opinion polling.  It builds on our mostly successful predictions in Ontario, Newfoundland/Labrador, the Yukon, Quebec, the past two Canadian Federal Elections & Electoral College results for the 2004 USA Presidential Election.

 

  Sept 9th 2007 - TrendLines is pleased to introduce our United Kingdom Riding Projection for the General Election due by June 3rd 2010.  As the months go by we'll elaborate further on our methodology and musings.

Our inaugural Projection Chart is based on the running of 150 post-2005 Election polls thru the models;  and builds on our mostly successful predictions in the Yukon, Quebec, the past two Canadian Federal Elections & Electoral College results for the 2004 USA Presidential Election.

 

June 30th 2007 - TrendLines is pleased to introduce our Russian Sentiment Projection for the Presidential Election scheduled for March 2008.  As the weeks go by we'll elaborate further on our methodology and musings.  First round voting will be augmented with a run-off Election between the top two vote getters.  Vladimir Putin is constitutionally prohibited from running for a third mandate.

Our Projection is based on Opinion data mainly from the Yury Lavada Analytical Centre and builds on our mostly successful predictions in the Yukon, Quebec, the past two Canadian Federal Elections & Electoral College results for the 2004 USA Presidential Election.

 

June 10th 2007 - TrendLines is pleased to introduce our Newfoundland & Labrador Provincial Sentiment & Riding Projection for the General Election scheduled for Oct 9th 2007.  As the weeks go by we'll elaborate further on our methodology and musings.

Our 1st Nwfld&Lab Seat Projection is based on mostly successful predictions in the Yukon, Quebec, the past two Federal Elections & Electoral College results for the 2004 USA Presidential Election.

 
April 7th 2007 - TrendLines is pleased to introduce our Ontario Provincial Riding Projection for the General Election scheduled for Oct 10th 2007.  As the weeks go by we'll elaborate further on our methodology and musings.

Our 1st Ontario Seat Projection is built on successful predictions in the Yukon, Quebec, the past two Federal Elections & Electoral College projections for the 2004 USA Presidential Election.

 

April 1st 2007 - TrendLines is pleased to re-commence our Federal Riding Projection.  While the next Election is not scheduled by PM Stephen Harper until Oct 19 2009, the reality of Minority Gov't is that either the PM or the Opposition could plunge us into the third Election in less than three years at almost any moment.  While the Conservatives would most certainly only pull the plug upon prospects of a Majority, the floundering fortunes of the NDP, BQ & Liberals continue to fan the flames of a writ.  Cocky statements by the Opposition are mostly in jest.  IMHO, no respectable race is possible until former Premier & Ambassador the USA, Frank McKenna, challenges for the Liberal leadership...

As the weeks go by we'll elaborate on our methodology and musings.  This is our 3rd Federal Election MP Seat Projection.  Successful predictions in the Yukon & Quebec will see us expand shortly to introduce the October 10th Ontario Election as well.

 

March 26th 2007 - TrendLines Quebec Election riding projections (based on modeling by Tonie Chaltas & Gregory Morrow of Opinion Polls to March 24th) vs final Actual Results:

TrendLines Final Quebec 2007 Riding Projections:  

ElectionsQuebec Mar 26th 2007 Actual Tally:

51 MNA's 48
25 MNA's 41
49 MNA's 36
     
125

MNA:  Member of the Quebec  Nat'l Assembly (Majority = 63 Ridings)

125

Everyone agreed the political climate had been volatile the last 72 hours ... But this "Oops" is reminiscent of the NDP Bob Rae catapult in early 90's Ontario!!

Mario Dumont of the ADQ is no doubt Canada's politician of the Year with today's outstanding performance.

Further, it has immense national implications.  Nobody in Canada had heard of "the fiscal imbalance" before Gilles Duceppe's bringing it to the forefront.  He must be given credit for alerting Canadians to this sore point in Quebec.  In turn, Stephen Harper agreed at the time to address the issue and took the first bold step via last week's Budget amid widespread criticism.

Well, a week later we awake to a Quebec with a whole new landscape ... one void of the PQ as a viable political option for the Quebecois.   Well done.

Pollster totals were reasonable correct for the Liberals & PQ; but failed to catch an Election Day move by Green Party supporters (2.4%) to the ADQ.  This was the margin in the three way races.  In BC in 2004, the Green Party vote splits robbed the NDP of governance.  Today, last minute Green Party disloyalty and/or strategic voting displaced the Opposition.  Federalists in the Province of Quebec have a new home.  Tomorrow is the first day of the end of the Secessionist Movement in Quebec.

Scroll above/below or use the menu for our Federal, Ontario, Yukon & USA "Race for the Whitehouse" projections.

 

 

 

March 1st 2007 - Please note that the TrendLines Federal Riding Projections will re-commence on April 5th !!

Evalina and i were fortunate to meet PM Stephen Harper during his visit to the Yukon to open the Canada Winter Games last month.  The PM has cast aside his ideological bias in recent months to facilitate governance rather than Party preference.  It is a strategy that has untold ramifications wrt gaining new sentiment while alienating some core support.

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1989-2011)

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FreeVenue:   PeakOil   Economics   ClimateChange   Elections

Beware ... the Lunatic Fringe

MemberVenue:   PeakOil   Economics   ClimateChange   Elections

  Canada Flag
Trendlines Research  ...   Long-Term multi-disciplinary Perspectives by Freddy Hutter since 1989
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