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 Election Projections    Canadian General Election 2011 ~ 2008 ~ 2006 ~ 2004
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[New!]= posted to the FreeVenue in the last 30 days. FreeVenue charts are generally posted 90 days after release to our MemberVenue (latter sports enhanced discussion, archive & supplementary tables & graphs.

[New!] Hutter/Antweiler MP Riding Projection reveals Conservatives were in post-Debates free-fall 'til Launch of SunNews

[New!]So, who had the best of 14 models this year? ... see the 2011 Scoreboard

see also:  econ ~ Trendlines Recession Indicator re-confirms Housing Bubble & near-par Loonie Decimated Canadian Recovery ... as forecast

see also:  econ ~ Monthly update of TrendLines Realty Bubble Monitor  Australia $80k, UK £76k, Canada $76k & USA $1k

 
 
 

 Conservatives were in post-Debates free fall 'til Launch of SunNews

May 4 2011 ~ Release of Freddy Hutter's Antweiler-based riding projection reveals the Conservatives were in free fall after the Leaders' Debates, but a reversal in fortunes coincided with the April 18th launch of the right-wing cable channel SunNews.  Support for PM Harper fell by 22 MPs in the six days following the April 11/12 Debates, then began the historic comeback to a 167 Majority.  It is said that the CTV Mike Duffy exposure of Dion's "Can we do this again" outtake was the turning pint in October 2008.  Similarly, I would venture the Bell/CTV decision to air SunNews from Launch to Election despite the fee dispute was instrumental in this week's outcome.


 
Ratings for the 14 2011 Riding Projections & Avg
   
 errors  model
36 1st - Freddy Hutter via Antweiler (best in 2008 also)
42 2nd - Sam Norris & Rob Lutener - theMace
46 3rd - Sean Lu - Cndn Election Watch
50 4 -Trendlines 14model Avg  (#1 over 5 Federal & Ontario elections)
50 4 - Riding-by-Riding Nick Boragina
56 6 - Barry Kay - LISPOP  (#2 over 5 Federal & Ontario elections)
58 7 - EKOS  (2nd in 2008 & 2004)
58 7 -Greg Morrow - DemocraticSpace  (3rd in 2006)
68 9 -Brian Breguet - TCTC
80 10 - Dan Arnold - Calgary Grit
86 11 - Freddy Hutter via H&K
92 12 - Bernie von Schulman - BC Iconoclast
94 13 - Harry Hayfield
98 14 - Eric Grenier - 308
116 15 - Milton Chan - ElectionPrediction  (1st in 2004 & 2006, 13th in 2008 & #3 over 5 Federal & Ontario elections)

So, who had the best of 14 models this year?  the Scoreboard!

May 3 2011 ~ Again this year Trendlines has rated the 14 international efforts comprising our 14-model Avg daily tracking chart.  As in 2008, best-in-class was our own Antweiler-based projection!  The Scoreboard includes each model's success for the 2011/2008/2007/2006/2004 Federal & Ontario elections.

 

 

Scoreboard for 2011 Canadian Federal Election

How did the 14 Riding Projection models fare this year?   And over 4 or 5 Elections?

previous Scoreboards:   2008   2006   2004

     

Canada Election 2011

Werner Antweiler UBC Election Stock Market Dan Arnold

Calgary Grit

Nick Boragina

Riding by Riding(niXtuff)

Brian Breguet

TCTC

Milton Chan Paul Adams

EKOS Research

Eric Grenier

308

Harry Hayfield Barry Kay

LISPOP WLU

Sean Lu

Cndn Election Watch

Greg Morrow

Democratic Space

Segma Paulitics Arithmetic Universal Swing via Antweiler Voter Matrix Paulitics Geometric Projection via Antweiler Voter Matrix Sam Norris & Rob Lutener

theMace

Bernie von Schulman

BC Iconoclast

Freddy Hutter Trendlines via Hill & Knowlton Predictor Freddy Hutter Trendlines via Antweiler Voter Matrix Freddy Hutter TrendLines via Pickup Observatory Corrector + H&K Forecaster TrendLines MultiModel

14-model Avg

CPC-167   146 142 143 146 138 143 152 144 152 155       148 152 149 160 - 149
Liberal-34   55 39 58 63 41 60 48 51 46 47       44 52 43 23 - 43
BlocQ-4   22 12 14 33 15 27 36 15 15 20       14 31 37 7 - 20
NDP-102   83 114 93 65 113 78 70 98 94 86       100 71 77 116 - 95
Ind&Gr-1   2 1 0 1 1 0 2 0 1 0       2 2 2 2 - 1
Riding Errors:   - 80 50 68 116 58 98 94 56 46 58 - - - 42 92 86 36   50
2011  Rating:   10th 4th 9th 15th 7th 14th 13th 6th 3rd 7th       2nd 12th 11th 1st   4th
   
 2008: 8th 7th 11th   13th  2nd   10th 9th   12th 14th  3rd 4th     4th  1st  15th 4th
2006: 2nd       1st       4th   3rd                 6th
2004:         1st 2nd     3rd                     3rd
Best Record after 4 Elections:         2nd       2nd                     1st
2007 Ontario:         8th       4th   7th   1st 4th           4th
4/Election LowScore Points:         30       22                     17
Best Record after 5 Elections:         3rd

38pts

      2nd

26pts

                    1st

21pts

 

 take advantage of our April Membership Special (1 -Yr $48) to view the real-time chart of our "4th" federal campaign:    click here  

 

8-poll avg 14-model average: May 1st 2011 status May 2nd Election targets
Below is the final chart for the 14-model avg (4th best of 15 forecasts) comparing its targets with Election Day results.>

Below is my long term perspective chart with Election Day results added to compare with the 14-model avg targets:>

Backgrounder ~ the 2004 election campaign is remembered for our depiction of the CPC's brief flirtation with a projected Majority looking forward to Election Day, only to have voters back away from that precipice and settle with status quo.  In Sept 2005, we saw multiple calls by the lame-stream media for Harper's replacement as CPC Leader for botching the floor-crossing affair and providing the Paul Martin Liberals with a potential 161 MP Majority.  Our projections showed the Conservatives claw back to briefly take the lead by November.  The Liberals also struggled back to the lead but our projections were first to reveal Harper had taken a permanent lead on January 1st 2006, then went on to a Minority victory later in the month.  In the hours before PM Harper visited the GovGen in early September 2008 to drop the writ, our blog warned that his intent to spit-in-the-face of his own fixed election day legislation would prompt the Opposition to form a Coalition if the CPC did not attain a Majority.  He didn't listen and they did !  Today there is much irony in this year's election.  The NDP didn't want it and they did best.  Unfortunately, before the writ they held the balance of power and now they only get to watch from the sidelines (minority vs majority).  The Liberals were the great instigator of the non-Confidence vote ... and were decimated.  The BQ were facilitators of the unneeded election and paid the ultimate price ... gonzo.  The CPC didn't want an election ... and they were rewarded with the elusive Majority!  Next stop ... Oct 19 2015.>

 Please scroll down a bit for Campaign & pre-writ Blog archive...

Our Election Day targets are of course vulnerable and subject to the dynamics common to the lead-up and within Election Campaigns.

The chart's "April" data points were based on 14 models' converting of 8 national polls conducted Apr25-30 2011

The chart's "March" data points were based on 11 models' converting of 8 national polls conducted Mar22-Apr3 2011

The chart's "Feb" data points were based on 7 models' converting of 6 national polls conducted Feb2-27 2011

37% 148 MPs 149 Conservative MPs
32% 90 MPs 95 NDP MPs
19% 48 MPs 43 Liberal MPs
6% 21 MPs

20 Bloc Quebecois MPs

1% INDEP'T 1

1 INDEP'T MPs

5% 0

0 Green MPs

100%  

308 MP House of Commons

Seat status at dissolution:  143-C, 77-L, 47-BQ & 36-NDP, 2-Indep't & 3-Vacant

Pre-2010 results have been smoothed. Please click the prior Elections links in title above for higher resolution charts (or scroll way down).

The 14 models active in the post-2008 Election conversions have included:  Paul Adams (EKOS Research), Dan Arnold (CalgaryGrit), Nick Boragina (RidingByRiding), Bryan Breguet (TCTC), Sean Lu (CdnElectionWatch), Milton Chan (ElectionPredictionDotOrg), Éric Grenier (308DotCom), Harry Hayfield (UK), Barry Kay (LISPOP), Rob Lutener & Sam Norris (theMace), Glen Robbins, Bernard von Schulmann (BC-Iconoclast) as well as our own applications of the H&K Predictor & Antweiler Matrix Forecaster, followed by a final overlay of the Trendlines Long-Term Momentum Target Indicator.

Trendlines Research commenced monthly tracking of available Canadian Riding Projections in April 2004.  Over the past four major Elections, our multi-model methodology has proved the most accurate forecasting tool.  The tally has included at least one of our own contributory models since since February 2006.  We tracked 17 recognized Riding Projection models leading up to the 2008 Election.

about us:  TrendLines Research's Overall Prediction Success Rating since 2004 is 88%.  Our multi-model averaging methodology is the highest rated of the 17 global projection models that have attempted to predict the 2004/2006/2008 Canadian & 2007 Ontario Elections.  Even before the Election Writ was dropped, we had declared that this illegal action by Harper would cause a unite-the-left scenario resulting in a socialist leaning Coalition.

Our USA Electoral College Vote projections were the highest rated of all polling firms that publicly tracked both the 2004 & 2008 Presidential Elections.  Similarly in the 2006 Canadian Federal Election, Freddy Hutter was the first political analyst to predict the Defeat of the Paul Martin Gov't.  On Nov 30th 2005, TrendLines Research commenced published projections of a Stephen Harper led Conservative Minority ... seven weeks before Election Day; and in spite of the fact that the Liberal Party was ahead in almost all polls from May to Christmas!

Our post-2006 projections are based on a blending of 19 Riding Projection Models by Paul Adams (EKOS Research), Dan Arnold, Nick Boragina (nixtuff), anonymous (CdnElectionWatch), Milton Chan (Election Prediction Project), Harry Hayfield (UK), Brendan Hodgson & Tonie Chaltas (Hill & Knowlton), Barry Kay (LISPOP), David MacDonald (NoDice), Greg Morrow (DemocraticSpace), Mark Pickup (Polling Observatory), Glen Robbins, Segma, anonymous Paul (Paulitics), Bernard von Schulmann (BC  Iconoclast), Werner Antweiler (UBC Election Stock Market ... plus our own applications of Werner Antweiler's Voter Migration Matrix (UBC), Brendan Hodgson's Election Predictor (Hill & Knowlton) & Mark Pickup' Poll Corrector  ... which are incorporated by several of the models.  Finally, we overlay our-Long Term Momentum Indicator.

These studies are in turn based on Canvassing and/or published national/regional Public Opinion Poll data (with avg 3% margin of error).  Please note that fine tuning of the models sometimes affects older data entries on the chart.  Several chart values have been deleted for clarity.  The Election Day projection will incorporate other recognized models as Federal polling becomes more frequent.

The TrendLines Projection also incorporates some 2006 Models by academics and political analysts including Jordan O'Brien, Ipsos Reid & Allen Gregg.  In addition, Models by Andrew Heard, Alan Hall & EKOS were included in the 2004 studies.  All do stellar work for little recognition.  Scroll below for more info on methodology or higher resolution of the 2006 & 2004 Projections.  Only the Yukon Projection includes direct polling by Trendlines Research.

 2011 Election Campaign Blog:

Welcome to coverage of our 4th Canadian General Election.  I am humbled realizing all discussion in Canada surrounding an Opposition Coalition commenced with my Sept 1st 2008 blog posting.  My 2008 Election Campaign charts tracked the Coalition tally each day ... leading to this topic being included in the 2008 Leaders' English Debate.  With this background, it may seem quite a departure to find that I do not expect that same prospect to come to fruition at the conclusion of this Writ.  Observing the pleas & body language of Jack Layton in the final days and hours of the last Parliamentary session, I came to the conclusion on March 25th that should PM Harper fall short of Majority, it is very probable the Tories will form an Accord or Coalition with the NDP prior to the Throne Speech.  This remains my position today.  Freddy Hutter, Trendlines Research

The Trendlines Research multi-model Riding Projection has been Canada's most accurate forecast tool measured over the last four major (Federal/Ontario) elections.  Each month, its chart depicts the average of currently available seat projections from 14 international modelers.  One of the models included is our own proprietary conversion, itself the most accurate of 17 efforts in the 2008 Election.

May 2 2011:  Final 14-model avg infers Harper shy 6 MPs for Majority

The final tally from the 14 international Riding Projections reveals Jack Layton's momentum arising from the Leaders' Debates continued thru the final weekend.  By Sunday nite the NDP had gained 59 potential MPs, at the expense of 35 Liberals & 24 BQ, as well as capturing back 23% of national Green support.

There have been two surprises in this campaign.  As in August 2008, Conservatives got a huge poll bump via pre-Writ negative Ignatieff advertising ... gaining 24 potential ridings (compared to 53 agin Dion).  Last time, the Liberals instantly got back 37 as soon as the Opposition began their own ads.  This time the Grits wrestled back only 8!  Hmmm.  Quebec voters have had a tendency towards "piling on", that is, upon seeing Majorities forming, they will switch support to the winning Party to attain Cabinet Members (& $) ... didn't happen this time around.

May Second can't come fast enuf for the governing Conservatives considering soon-to-surface economic issues.  Yesterday's StatCan February data release re-confirms the Trendlines Recession Indicator forecast of Q1 economic growth rate being 6.3%.  This excellent news will be short-lived.  The quarter represented the end of stimulus cheques and TRI projects Q2 is on a much reduced 2.6% pace.  Just seven days Voting Day, StatCan will remind Canadians Unemployment remains in a 7.8% quagmire ... much above the pre-Recession Rate of 5.3%.  Our Barrel Meter is forecasting Crude Oil could peak @ $140/barrel this Summer.  This does not bode well for our auto sector 'cuz our Gas Pump infers USA New Car Sales are decimated (or stymied from rebound) while Crude Price exceeds $90/barrel.  The Barrel Meter bears further bad news with the warning of a new round of G-20 Recessions whilst oil breaches $108/barrel.  After weathering these headwinds, I am certain Bank of Canada is preparing to normalize interest rates with a 1.5% bump ... an action sure to burst Canada's $82,000 Housing Bubble.  This won't be pretty.

The Trendlines Research multi-model Riding Projection has charted the average of recognized international seat projections each month since October 2004.  One is our very own contribution ... itself the most accurate of Canada's 2008 Election.  Daily tracking by this (Hutter) model indicates PM Harper has a lead today in 149 Ridings, followed by:  77 NDP, 43 Liberals, 37 BQ & 2 Indept's.

When our own numbers are blended with the other current models for a broader analysis, the findings are as featured in the headline chart above.  Today's presentation is based on the conversion of 8 national polls conducted April25-May1 by 14 international projection models.  It reveals the governing Conservative Party has a lead in 148 Seats, followed by:  90 NDP, 48 Liberals, 21 Bloc & 1 Indep't.  Looking forward, our momentum indicator overlay projects the Tories will be 6 MPs shy (149) of a Majority on Election Day, followed by:  95 NDP, 43 Liberals, 20 BQ & 1 Indep't.

 

May 1 2011:  Harper Still 7 Shy after Final Weekend

Sentiment for tomorrow's vote reveals momentum arising from the Leaders' Debates continues to favour the NDP (58 MP gain) at the expense of 34 Liberals & 24 BQ, as well as capturing back 21% of national Green support.

There have been two surprises in this campaign.  As in August 2008, Conservatives got a huge poll bump via pre-Writ negative Ignatieff advertising ... gaining 24 potential ridings (compared to 53 agin Dion).  Last time, the Liberals instantly got back 37 as soon as the Opposition began their own ads.  This time the Grits wrestled back only 8!  Hmmm.  Quebec voters have had a tendency towards "piling on", that is, upon seeing Majorities forming, they will switch support to the winning Party to attain Cabinet Members (& $) ... didn't happen this time around.

May Second can't come fast enuf for the governing Conservatives considering soon-to-surface economic issues.  Yesterday's StatCan February data release re-confirms the Trendlines Recession Indicator forecast of Q1 economic growth rate being 6.3%.  This excellent news will be short-lived.  The quarter represented the end of stimulus cheques and TRI projects Q2 is on a much reduced 2.6% pace.  Just seven days Voting Day, StatCan will remind Canadians Unemployment remains in a 7.8% quagmire ... much above the pre-Recession Rate of 5.3%.  Our Barrel Meter is forecasting Crude Oil could peak @ $140/barrel this Summer.  This does not bode well for our auto sector 'cuz our Gas Pump infers USA New Car Sales are decimated (or stymied from rebound) while Crude Price exceeds $90/barrel.  The Barrel Meter bears further bad news with the warning of a new round of G-20 Recessions whilst oil breaches $108/barrel.  After weathering these headwinds, I am certain Bank of Canada is preparing to normalize interest rates with a 1.5% bump ... an action sure to burst Canada's $82,000 Housing Bubble.  This won't be pretty.

The Trendlines Research multi-model Riding Projection has charted the average of recognized international seat projections each month since October 2004.  One is our very own contribution ... itself the most accurate of Canada's 2008 Election.  Daily tracking by this (Hutter) model indicates PM Harper has a lead today in 149 Ridings, followed by:  77 NDP, 44 Liberals, 37 BQ & 1 Indep't.

When our own numbers are blended with the other current models for a broader analysis, the findings are as featured in the headline chart above.  Today's presentation is based on the conversion of 7 national polls conducted April25-May1 by 14 international projection models.  It reveals the governing Conservative Party has a lead in 148 Seats, followed by:  89 NDP, 49 Liberals, 21 Bloc & 1 Indep't.  Looking forward, our momentum indicator overlay projects the Tories will be 7 MPs shy (148) of a Majority on Election Day, followed by:  91 NDP, 46 Liberals, 22 BQ & 1 Indep't.

 

April 30 2011:  Layton Still Rising ... Harper 7 Shy with 2 days Campaigning to go

Sentiment two days out from the May 2nd Vote reveals momentum arising from the Leaders' Debates continues to favour the NDP (50 MP gain) at the expense of 26 Liberals & 24 BQ, as well as trimming 2% off national Green sentiment.

May Second can't come fast enuf for the governing Conservatives considering soon-to-surface economic issues.  Yesterday's StatCan February data release re-confirms the Trendlines Recession Indicator forecast of Q1 economic growth rate being 6.3%.  This excellent news will be short-lived.  The quarter represented the end of stimulus cheques and TRI projects Q2 is on a much reduced 2.6% pace.  Just seven days Voting Day, StatCan will remind Canadians Unemployment remains in a 7.8% quagmire ... much above the pre-Recession Rate of 5.3%.  Our Barrel Meter is forecasting Crude Oil could peak @ $140/barrel this Summer.  This does not bode well for our auto sector 'cuz our Gas Pump infers USA New Car Sales are decimated (or stymied from rebound) while Crude Price exceeds $90/barrel.  The Barrel Meter bears further bad news with the warning of a new round of G-20 Recessions whilst oil breaches $108/barrel.  After weathering these headwinds, I am certain Bank of Canada is preparing to normalize interest rates with a 1.5% bump ... an action sure to burst Canada's $82,000 Housing Bubble.  This won't be pretty.

The Trendlines Research multi-model Riding Projection has charted the average of recognized international seat projections each month since October 2004.  One is our very own contribution ... itself the most accurate of Canada's 2008 Election.  Daily tracking by this (Hutter) model indicates PM Harper has a lead today in 149 Ridings, followed by:  72 NDP, 49 Liberals, 36 BQ & 2 Indept's.

When our own numbers are blended with the other current models for a broader analysis, the findings are as featured in the headline chart above.  Today's presentation is based on the conversion of 6 national polls conducted April 25-29 by 14 international projection models.  It reveals the governing Conservative Party has a lead in 147 Seats, followed by:  81 NDP, 57 Liberals, 22 Bloc & 1 Indep't.  Looking forward, our momentum indicator overlay projects the Tories will be 7 MPs shy (148) of a Majority on Election Day, followed by:  92 NDP, 50 Liberals, 17 BQ & 1 Indep't.

 

April 28 2011:  NDP Momentum Continues ... Harper 8 Shy with 5 days to go

Sentiment five days out from the May 2nd Vote reveals momentum arising from the Leaders' Debates continues to favour the NDP (43 MP gain) at the expense of the Liberals (22 seats), BQ (19), CPC (2) as well as trimming 1% off Green sentiment.

May Second can't come fast enuf for the governing Conservatives considering soon-to-surface economic issues.  Last Tuesday's figures from the Trendlines Recession Indicator suggest StatCan will announce Q1 GDP rose from 3.3% to 6.3% ... only three days prior to voting day.  But seven days after that excellent news, StatCan will remind Canadians Unemployment remains in a 7.8% quagmire.  Our Barrel Meter is forecasting Crude Price could be $140/barrel by the Summer.  This does not bode well for our auto sector 'cuz our Gas Pump infers USA New Car Sales are decimated (or stymied from rebound) while Crude Price exceeds $90/barrel.  The Barrel Meter bears further bad news with the warning of a new round of G-20 Recessions whilst oil breaches $108/barrel.  These economic headwinds will probably see Q2 retreat to 2.2% GDP.  We are certain Bank of Canada is preparing to raise interest rates about 1.5% to get them back to normal ... an action sure to burst Canada's $82,000 Housing Bubble.

The Trendlines Research multi-model Riding Projection has charted the average of recognized international seat projections each month since October 2004.  One is our very own conversion ... itself the most accurate in Canada's 2008 Election.  Daily tracking by this (Hutter) model indicates PM Harper has a lead today in 150 Ridings, followed by:  99 NDP, 56 Liberals, 2 Indept's & 1 BQ.

When our own numbers are blended with the other current models for a broader analysis, the findings are as featured in the headline chart above.  Today's presentation is based on the conversion of 4 national polls conducted April 25-27 by 14 international projection models.  It reveals the governing Conservative Party has a lead in 146 Seats, followed by:  74 NDP, 61 Liberals, 26 Bloc & 1 Indep't.  Finally, our momentum indicator overlay projects the Tories will be 8 MPs shy (147) of a Majority on Election Day, followed by:  92 NDP, 49 Liberals, 19 BQ & 1 Indep't.

 

April 27 2011:  NDP has Momentum ... Harper 7 Shy with 6 days to go

ElectionCanada reports weekend advance polls beat previous turnouts by 35%.  Sentiment six days out from the May 2nd Vote reveals momentum arising from the Leaders' Debates continues to favour the NDP (32 MP gain) at the expense of the Liberals (19 seats), BQ (12), CPC (1) as well as trimming over 1% off Green sentiment.  This episode reminds of the post-debate surge by UK's Nick Clegg last year - but the LibDems fizzled just days before folks made it to the ballot box.

May Second can't come fast enuf for the governing Conservatives considering soon-to-surface economic issues.  Last Tuesday's figures from the Trendlines Recession Indicator suggest StatCan will announce Q1 GDP rose from 3.3% to 6.3% ... only three days prior to voting day.  But seven days after that excellent news, StatCan will remind Canadians Unemployment remains in a 7.8% quagmire.  Our Barrel Meter is forecasting Crude Price could be $140/barrel by the Summer.  This does not bode well for our auto sector 'cuz our Gas Pump infers USA New Car Sales are decimated (or stymied from rebound) while Crude Price exceeds $90/barrel.  The Barrel Meter bears further bad news with the warning of a new round of G-20 Recessions whilst oil breaches $108/barrel.  These economic headwinds will probably see Q2 retreat to 2.2% GDP.  We are certain Bank of Canada is preparing to raise interest rates about 1.5% to get them back to normal ... an action sure to burst Canada's $82,000 Housing Bubble.  So, who's hand do we want on the tiller with all this on the horizon?

The Trendlines Research multi-model Riding Projection has charted the average of recognized international seat projections each month since October 2004.  One of these models is our own conversion ... it being the most accurate of 17 in Canada's 2008 Election.  Daily tracking by this (Hutter) model indicates PM Harper has a lead today in 147 Ridings, followed by:  77 Liberals, 41 BQ, 41 NDP & 2 Indept's.

When our own numbers are blended with the other available models for a broader analysis, the findings are as featured in the headline chart above.  Today's presentation is based on the conversion of 7 national polls conducted April 14-26 by 14 international projection models.  It reveals that the governing Conservative Party has a lead in 147 Seats, the Liberals in 64.  The NDP & Bloc sit at 63 & 33 potential Ridings respectively, plus one Indep't.  Finally, our momentum indicator overlay projects the Tories will be 7 MPs shy (148) of a Majority on Election Day, followed by:  85 NDP, 50 Liberals, 24 BQ & 1 Indep't.

 

April 26:  Momentum with Layton ... Harper 8 Shy with 8 days to go

ElectionCanada reports weekend advance polls beat previous turnouts by 30% - the electorate is certainly engaged!  Sentiment eight days out from the May 2nd Vote reveals momentum arising from the Leaders' Debates continues to favour the NDP (22 MP gain) mostly at the expense of the Greens, BQ, Liberals & CPC.  This episode reminds of the post-debate surge by UK's Clegg last year - but he fizzled before folks made it to the ballot box.

May Second can't come fast enuf for the governing Party considering soon-to-surface economic issues.  Tuesday's figures from the Trendlines Recession Indicator suggest StatCan will announce Q1 GDP rose from 3.3% to 6.3% ... only three days prior to voting day.  But then seven days after that excellent news, StatCan will remind Canadians Unemployment remains in a 7.8% quagmire.  Our Barrel Meter is forecasting Crude Price could be $140/barrel by the Summer.  This does not bode well for our auto sector 'cuz our Gas Pump infers USA New Car Sales are decimated (or stymied from rebound) while Crude Price exceeds $90/barrel.  The Barrel Meter bears further bad news with the warning of a new round of G-20 Recessions whilst oil breaches $108/barrel.  Should the economy survive those headwinds, we are certain Bank of Canada is preparing to raise interest rates about 1.5% to get them back to normal ... an action sure to burst Canada's $82,000 Housing Bubble.  So, who's hand do we want on the tiller with all this on the horizon?

The Trendlines Research multi-model Riding Projection has charted the average of recognized international seat projections each month since October 2004.  One of these models is our own conversion ... it being the most accurate of 17 in Canada's 2008 Election.  Daily tracking by this (Hutter) model indicates PM Harper has a lead today in 141 Ridings, followed by:  82 Liberals, 42 BQ, 41 NDP & 2 Indept's.

When our own numbers are blended with the other available models for a broader analysis, the findings are as featured in the headline chart above.  Today's presentation is based on the conversion of 9 national polls conducted April 12-24 by 14 international projection models.  It reveals that the governing Conservative Party has a lead in 147 Seats, the Liberals in 70.  The NDP & Bloc sit at 53 & 37 potential Ridings respectively, plus one Indep't.  Finally, our momentum indicator overlay projects the Tories will be 8 MPs shy (147) of a Majority on Election Day, followed by:  78 NDP, 55 Liberals, 27 BQ & 1 Indep't.

 

April 22 2011:  New Leader of Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition ... with 12 days to go

Momentum arising from the Leaders' Debates continues to favour the NDP (11 MP gain) at the sentiment expense of the Greens, BQ, Liberals & CPC.  Should this surprising trend continue, the Tories will fail to attain Majority status & Jack Layton becomes the Leader of Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition.

May 2nd can't come fast enuf for the governing Party considering soon-to-surface economic issues.  Tuesday's figures from the Trendlines Recession Indicator suggest StatCan will announce Q1 GDP rose from 3.3% to 6.3% ... only three days prior to voting day.  But then seven days after that excellent news, StatCan will remind Canadians Unemployment remains in a 7.8% quagmire.  Our Barrel Meter is forecasting Avg Crude Price could be $140/barrel by July.  This does not bode well for our auto sector 'cuz our Gas Pump infers USA New Car Sales are decimated (or can stymie a rebound) while Crude Price exceeds $90/barrel.  The Barrel Meter bears further bad news with the warning of a new round of G-20 Recessions while oil breaches $108/barrel.  Should the economy survive those headwinds, we are certain Bank of Canada is preparing to raise interest rates about 1.5% to get them back to normal ... an action sure to burst Canada's $82,000 Housing Bubble.  So, who's hand do we want on the tiller with all this on the horizon?

Since Oct/2004 the Trendlines Research multi-model Riding Projection has charted the average of recognized international seat projections.  One of these models is our own conversion ... it being the most accurate of 17 in Canada's 2008 Election.  Daily tracking by this (Hutter) model indicates PM Harper has a lead today in 138 Ridings, followed by:  86 Liberals, 39 NDP, 43 BQ & 2 Indept's.

When our own numbers are blended with the other available models for a broader analysis, the findings are as featured in the headline chart above.  Today's presentation is based on the conversion of 9 national polls conducted April 12-20 by 13 international projection models.  It reveals that the governing Conservative Party has a lead in 145 Seats, the Liberals in 77.  The Bloc & NDP sit at 43 & 42 potential Ridings respectively, plus one Indep't.  Finally, our momentum indicator projects the Tories will be 17 MPs shy (138) of a Majority on Election Day, followed by:  74 NDP, 62 Liberals, 33 BQ & 1 Indep't.

 

April 20 2011:  Tories 24 seats shy of Majority with 2 weeks to go

Momentum arising from the Leaders' Debates continues to favour the NDP (8 MP gain) at the expense of the CPC & Liberals.  Should this surprising trend continue, the Tories will fail to gain a Majority and Jack Layton becomes the Leader of Her Majesty's Official Opposition.

May 2nd can't come soon enuf for the governing Party on the economic front.  Yesterday's figures from the Trendlines Recession Indicator suggests StatCan will announce Q1 GDP rose from 3.3% to 6.3% ... only three days prior to voting day,  But then, seven days after that excellent news, StatCan will remind Canadians Unemployment remains in a 7.8% quagmire.  Our Barrel Meter's new projection says Crude Price could be $140/barrel by July.  This does not bode well for our auto sector 'cuz our Gas Pump infers USA New Car Sales are decimated while Crude Price exceeds $90/barrel.  The Barrel Meter bears further bad news with the warning that a new round of G-20 Recessions will start upon oil breaching $108/barrel.  Should the economy survive those headwinds, we are certain Bank of Canada is preparing to raise interest rates about 1.5% to get them back to normal ... and this action will indeed burst Canada's $82,000 Housing Bubble.  So, who's hand do we want on the tiller with all this on the horizon?

The Trendlines Research multi-model Riding Projection has been Canada's most accurate forecast tool measured over the last four major (Federal & Ontario) elections.  Each month, it charts the average of currently available seat projections from across Canada.  One of the models included is our own conversion - and it was the most accurate in the 2008 Federal Election.  Daily tracking by this (Hutter) model indicates PM Harper has a lead today in 137 Ridings, followed by:  86 Liberals, 39 NDP, 45 BQ & 0 Indept's.

When our own numbers are blended with the other available models for a broader analysis, the findings are as featured in the headline chart above.  Today's presentation is based on the conversion of 8 national polls conducted April 12-18 by 13 active projection models.  It reveals that the governing Conservative Party has a lead in 145 Seats, the Liberals in 79.  The Bloc & NDP sit at 46 & 38 potential Ridings respectively.  Our momentum indicator projects the Tories will be 24 MPs shy (131) of a Majority on Election Day, followed by:  65 Liberals, 69 NDP, 43 BQ & 0 Indept's.

 

April 16 2011:  Tories 2 seats shy of Majority with under 3 weeks to go

In the first days coming out of the Leaders' Debates, Jack Layton has snatched three ridings from the Michael Ignatieff.  At this juncture in the campaign, no Party has gained or lost more than eight seats.

May 2nd can't come soon enuf for the governing Party on the economic front.  Three days prior to voting day, StatCan will announce Q1 GDP fell from 3.3% to 2.3% (not the 5.2% predicted by OECD).  Four days later StatCan will reveal if Unemployment remains in the 7.8% quagmire.  Oil could be $140/barrel by July.  Not so good when New Car Sales are decimated when crude exceeds $90/barrel and a new round of G-20 Recessions starts over $108/barrel.  Should the economy survive those headwinds, interest rates will rise about 1.5% to get back to normal ... and help burst Canada's $82,000 Housing Bubble.  So, who's hand do we want on the tiller with all this on the horizon?

The Trendlines Research multi-model Riding Projection has been Canada's most accurate forecast tool measured over the last four major (Federal/Ontario) elections.  Each month, it charts the average of currently available seat projections from across Canada.  One of the models included is our own conversion - it was the most accurate in the 2008 Autumn Election.  Daily tracking by this (Hutter) model indicates PM Harper has a lead today in 157 Ridings, followed by:  74 Liberals, 32 NDP, 43 BQ & 2 Indept's.

When our own numbers are blended with the other available models for a broader analysis, the findings are as featured in the headline chart above.  Today's presentation is based on the conversion of 7 national polls conducted Mar31-Apr14 by 13 active projection models.  It reveals that the governing Conservative Party has a lead in 147 Seats today, the Liberals in 80.  The Bloc & NDP exit the Leaders' Debates with 46 & 34 potential Ridings respectively.  Results include 1 Indep't.  Our long-term momentum indicator projects the Tories will be two MPs short (153) of a Majority on Election Day, followed by:  77 Liberals, 31 NDP, 46 BQ & 1 Indept.

 

April 15 2011:  Harper only 1 Seat Shy of Majority with under 3-weeks to go

Halfway thru the campaign Canadians still await any real coverage of Election issues.  As in 2008, most air time thus far has been devoted to disgusting tabloid-style "journalism".  No in-depth thoughtful analysis ... just the same old "gotcha politics" that turned off voters a decade ago.  NPR/PBS receive only $430 million from the US Gov't.  So why do our taxpayers fork out $1.8 billion for CBC?  Just saying... 

May 2nd can't come soon enuf on the economic front.  Three days prior StatCan will announce Q1 GDP fell from 3.3% to 2.3% (not the 5.2% predicted by OECD).  Four days later they'll reveal if Unemployment remains in the 7.8% quagmire.  Oil could be $140/barrel by July.  Not so good when New Car Sales are decimated @ $90/barrel and a new round of G-20 Recessions starts @ $108.  Then if we make it thru all that, interest rates will rise about 1.5% to get back to normal ... and help burst Canada's $82,000 Housing Bubble.  So, who's hand do we want on the tiller with all this on the horizon? 

The Trendlines Research multi-model Riding Projection has been Canada's most accurate forecast tool, measured over the last four major (Federal/Ontario) elections.  Each month, its chart depicts the average of currently available seat projections from across Canada.  One of the models included is our own conversion, which on its own was the most accurate in the 2008 Autumn Election.  This (Hutter) model indicates PM Harper has a lead today in 159 Ridings, followed by:  75 Liberals, 30 NDP, 42 BQ & 2 Indept's.

When our own numbers are blended with the other available models for a broader analysis, the findings are as featured in the headline chart above.  Today's presentation is based on the conversion of 7 national polls conducted Mar31-Apr11 by 13 active projection models.  It reveals that the governing Conservative Party has a lead in 148 Seats today, the Liberals in 83.  The Bloc & NDP went into the Leaders' Debates with 46 & 31 potential Ridings respectively.  Our long-term momentum indicator projects the Tories will be one MP short of a Majority on Elections Day.

 

April 6 2011:  Harper only 1 Seat Shy of Majority with under 5-weeks to go

The lamestream media is bewildered as to why the CPC has not been capitalizing on this week's awesome forecast by the OECD of 5.2% Q1 Canadian GDP.  Simple:  the OECD is wrong!  As revealed by the Trendlines Recession Indicator fifteen days ago, Q1 was more likely only 2.2% (following 3.3% in Q4).  The StatCan Q1 announcement will come a mere three days prior to Election Day.  Should the Tories make a big deal of "5.2%" and it is found Real GDP actually fell ... the consequences on credibility could be tragic on that final campaign weekend.  Granted we foresee 4.6% in Q2, but that announcement will come far too late.  In a couple of days StatCan will also reveal if Unemployment remains in the 7.8% quagmire.

Crude oil has been in breach of $90/barrel for ten weeks.  For a year we've warned that this event would cause a collapse of North American New Vehicle Sales.  Similarly, oil may breach the $109/barrel threshold this week and inspire a new round of G-20 Recessions.  We will update TRI on April 19th - so stay tuned - but it may be just as well macro economics do not become a central issue.  The horizon is somewhat bleak and resolution of geo-political events in Libya will not turn petroleum prices around.  Failure of Congress and the Obama Administration to address their structural deficits means USDollar Debasement has become a $22/barrel component of current pricing.

Bank of Canada raised interest rates too quickly ... as we warned they would (in March 2010).  CMHC continues to feed the real estate bubble with its promotion of 5% down payments despite our warnings to pare back to 10% (over a year ago).  Bad housing policy helped create Canada's $82,000 Housing Bubble and the imminent correction will be a head wind.  Rising interest rates and oil prices are founding an export killing par-plus Loonie that undermines job creation.  The Tories will want this Election over before a plethora of bad news hits.

The Trendlines Research composite Riding Projection has been Canada's most accurate forecast tool, measured over the last four major (Federal/Ontario) elections.  Each month, its chart depicts the average of currently available seat projections from across Canada.  One of the models included is our own conversion, which on its own was the most accurate in the 2008 Autumn Election.  This model indicates PM Harper has a lead in 155 Ridings, followed by:  76 Liberals, 31 NDP, 45 BQ & 1 Indep't.

When our own numbers are blended with the other available models for a broader analysis, the findings are as featured in the headline chart above.  Today's presentation is based on the conversion of 8 national polls conducted Mar14-Apr3 by 12 active projection models.  It reveals that the governing Conservative Party has a lead in 150 Seats ... down 1 from thirty days prior.  The Liberal Party starts with 75 Members (same).  The Bloc & NDP begin the Spring campaign with 50 & 33 Ridings respectively.  Our long-term momentum indicator is favouring the Tories to gain 4 additional seats for a total of 154 by Election Day.

 

March 25 2011:  Opposition Parties Force early May General Election

Welcome to coverage of our fourth Canadian General Election.  We are humbled that all discussion in Canada surrounding an Opposition Coalition commenced with our Sept 1st 2008 blog posting.  Our 2008 Election Campaign charts tracked the Coalition tally each day ... leading to this topic being included in the 2008 Leaders' English Debate.  With this background, it may seem quite a departure to find that we do not expect that same prospect to come to fruition at the conclusion of this Writ.  Caveat the unforeseen, the Conservative Party will gain MPs in this Election.  On March 25th, this led me to forecast that should PM Harper fall short of Majority, it is very probable the Tories will form an Accord or Coalition with the NDP prior to the Throne Speech.  This remains our position today.

The Trendlines Research composite Riding Projection has been Canada's most accurate forecast tool, measured over the last four major (Federal/Ontario) elections.  Each month, its chart depicts the average of currently available seat projections from across Canada.  One of the models included is our own conversion, which on its own was the most accurate in the 2008 Autumn Election.

With the Conservative Party at the peak of its post-2008 momentum, the combined Opposition Parties have voted Non-Confidence to force an early May General Election.  Based on the February polling below, our October 2012 long-term indicator targets have been adjusted to reflect a Spring Writ.  At this time, Trendlines Research is projecting a CPC Majority of 155 MPs.  The Liberal Party would garner 76 seats on Election Day, followed by 46 BQ, 30 NDP & 1 Indep't.  This is our 4th Federal campaign.  Let the Games begin...

 

 Post 2008-Election Blog:

March 16 2011:  CBC Helps Liberal Party Attain 5-Yr Low

Several days before PM Harper dropped the 2008 Writ, Trendlines Research warned it was a dangerous action that would yield Canada's first Coalition Gov't, it being highly improbable for him to win a Majority.  In the end, our prediction was stymied by Dion's decision to resign ... but the forecast came verrry close to fruition.  Today, the Tories appear to be near Majority territory, but as happened in Sept/2008, the Conservative sentiment will again plummet upon the commencement of Grit & Dipper advertising.  Events by the end of March will reveal whether Ignatieff is on a suicide mission ... or en route to becoming the Coalition Gov't Leader.

Next week's events are the climax of a blatant CBC strategy to get in bed with Liberal Party of Canada albeit the latter may perhaps have been reluctant soul mates.  CBC-TV has strived to become the north-of-60 counterpart of MSNBC - the on air voice of the Progressives (socialist wing of the USA Democratic Party) - an affiliation which has all but bankrupted the network ... along with copycat CNN.  The wrong-minded tactic has lost the two cable new channels millions of viewers and the top rated 13 programs to Fox-TV.  Similarly, CBC is now faced with a $1.8 billion operating deficit as advertisers vanish.  In short, the cost of this leftist agenda is being carried entirely by Canadian taxpayers.  At the start of CBC campaign in Autumn 2009 the Grits had 111 seats in the above projection...

Today's chart illustrates the Grits would commence a potential campaign with a 2-seat deficit from the 2008 Election.  This may reflect "a recovery of the economic Recovery".  Tory fortunes no doubt suffered somewhat as the GDP growth rate collapsed (6.2% to 1.8%) last year.  But StatCan says there was a rebound to 3.3% in Q4 and the Trendlines Recession Indicator infers a 3.9% Q2 pace albeit the good news is clouded by an Unemployment Rate stuck in a 7.8% quagmire.

Bank of Canada raised interest rates too quickly ... as we warned they would (in March 2010).  CMHC continues to feed the real estate bubble with its promotion of 5% down payments despite our warnings to pare back to 10% (over a year ago).  Bad housing policy helped create Canada's $71,000 Housing Bubble.  The correction will be a de facto assault on family net worth - hardly a remedy for consumer confidence building.  And with interest rates rising ... an export killing par-plus Loonie undermines job creation.  Crude Oil has been in breach of $90/barrel for six weeks, so the auto sector and its exports to the USA are in serious jeopardy.  Leadership must be questioned when all this was indeed foretold.  In the end, there is enuf bad news floating out there to make this a volatile environment for the Conservatives to attempt a run for the elusive Majority ... 'cuz should they fail - they would be staring down a Coalition future.

The TrendLines Research composite Riding Projection has been Canada's most accurate forecast tool, measured over the last four major (Federal/Ontario) elections.  Each month, its chart depicts the average of currently available seat projections from across Canada.  One of the models included is our own conversion, which on its own was the most accurate in the 2008 Autumn Election.  This model indicates PM Harper would have began a hypothetical March 1st election campaign with a lead in 154 Ridings, followed by:  77 Liberals, 26 NDP, 49 BQ & 2 Indept's.

When our own numbers are blended with the other available models for a broader analysis, the findings are as featured in the headline chart above.  We are pleased to advise the seat projection of Bryan Breguet has been blended into the composite study.  Today's presentation is based on the conversion of 6 national polls conducted Feb2-27 2010 by 7 active projection models.  It reveals that the governing Conservative Party would have commenced an early March election campaign with a lead in 151 Seats ... up 13 from thirty days prior.  The Liberal Party would start with 75 Members (down 15).  The Bloc & NDP would have started an early early Spring campaign with 51 & 30 Ridings respectively.  This is the tenth consecutive month where our long term momentum indicator is favouring the Tories (rather than the Grits) to top the standings right up to expiry of the current Parliament in October 2012 ... leading in 127 Ridings upon the dropping of that potential writ.

 

Feb 17 2011:  Negative Ads Back:  Priming the Pump or Scaring Away the Coalition?

In the days before to calling the 2008 Election the Conservative Party ran a series of anti-Ignatieff TV ads prior to the "sweater-vest" series.  The strategy propelled the CPC seat projection from 128 (Aug31) to 181 (Sept7), but upon commencement of the Coalition ads, CPC sentiment quickly evaporated to 144 (Sept16).  Harper eventually won with 143 MPs.  As we see the same tactic playing out again, we have to wonder whether the purpose is to lay the groundwork for a post-Budget Writ ... or just to scare away the Coalition from a Confidence vote?

Today's chart, illustrating the Grits would commence a potential campaign with a 13-seat lead (over 2008), may still reflect some voter dissatisfaction with Government efforts to maintain what was once a robust economic recovery.  But while StatCan is currently reporting an annualized GDP of 1.4% for November, the Trendlines Recession Indicator infers the figure is dramatically understated.  Yesterday's TRI release infers Canada has indeed averted the dreaded double-dip and early data suggests February growth has rebound to a 2.8% pace, with Q2 presently projected @ 3.8%.  But this perhaps good news is clouded by the Unemployment Rate stuck in a 7.8% quagmire.  In short, there is enuf bad news floating out there to make this a volatile environment for the Conservatives to attempt a run for the elusive Majority ... 'cuz should they fail - they would be staring down a Coalition future.

Everything seems to be working against PM Harper.  Bank of Canada had raised interest rates too quickly ... as we warned they would (in March 2010).  CMHC continues to feed the real estate bubble with its promotion of 5% down payments despite our warnings to pare back to 10% (a year ago).  Bad housing policy helped create Canada's $78,000 Housing Bubble.  The assault on net worth is hardly a remedy for consumer confidence building.  And with interest rates rising ... an export killing par-plus Loonie undermines job creation.  If oil breaches the its present $90/barrel, the auto sector and its exports to the USA are in serious jeopardy.  The "recovery" of the Recovery could be short-lived.  Leadership must be questioned when all this was indeed foretold.

The TrendLines Research composite Riding Projection has been Canada's most accurate forecast tool, measured over the last four major (Federal/Ontario) elections.  Each month, its chart depicts the average of currently available seat projections from across Canada.  One of the models included is our own conversion, which on its own was the most accurate in the 2008 Autumn Election.  This model indicates PM Harper would have began a hypothetical February 2nd election campaign with a lead in 138 Ridings, followed by:  93 Liberals, 30 NDP, 45 BQ & 2 Indept's.

When our own numbers are blended with the other available models for a broader analysis, the findings are as featured in the headline chart above.  Today's presentation is based on the conversion of 7 national polls conducted Jan9-Feb2 2010 by 5 active projection models.  It reveals that the governing Conservative Party would have commenced an early February election campaign with a lead in 138 Seats ... down 2 from thirty days prior.  The Liberal Party would start with 90 Members (up 1).  The Bloc & NDP would have started an early mid-Winter campaign with 51 & 29 Ridings respectively.  This is the ninth consecutive month where our long term momentum indicator is favouring the Tories (rather than the Grits) to top the standings right up to expiry of the current Parliament in October 2012 ... leading in 122 Ridings upon the dropping of that potential writ.

 

Jan 27 2011 ~ CBC Pacifists, Homosexuals & Socialists Ease the Rhetoric ... and Conservatives Gain

Anti-American programming continued ad nauseum at the national network in December, but in fear of Sun Media inevitable capture of market share, there has been a marked easing of left leaning rhetoric by on-air pacifists, homosexuals & socialists at CBC-TV.  This buoyed sentiment for the Conservatives ... at the expense of the Coalition.  A "Fox-North" bump could very well propel the Tories into Majority territory this Spring.

Today's chart, illustrating the Grits would commence a potential campaign with a 12-seat lead (over 2008), may still reflect some voter dissatisfaction with Government efforts to maintain what was once a robust economic recovery.  But while StatCan is currently reporting an annualized GDP of 1.3% for October, the Trendlines Recession Indicator infers the figure is understated, Canada has averted a double-dip and the probable January growth has rebound to a 3.1% pace, with Q2 presently projected @ 3.8%.  But this perhaps good news is clouded by the Unemployment Rate stuck in a 7.6% quagmire.  In short, there is enuf bad news floating out there to make this a volatile environment for the Conservatives to attempt a run for the elusive Majority ... 'cuz should they fail - they would be staring down a Coalition future.

Everything seems to be working against PM Harper.  Bank of Canada had raised interest rates too quickly ... as we warned they would (in March 2010).  CMHC continues to feed the real estate bubble with its promotion of 5% down payments despite our warnings to pare back to 10% (a year ago).  Bad housing policy helped create Canada's $77,000 Housing Bubble.  The assault on net worth is hardly a remedy for consumer confidence building.  And with interest rates rising ... an export killing par-plus Loonie undermines job creation.  Leadership must be questioned when all this was indeed foretold.

The TrendLines Research composite Riding Projection has been Canada's most accurate forecast tool, measured over the last four major (Federal/Ontario) elections.  Each month, its chart depicts the average of currently available seat projections from across Canada.  One of the models included is our own conversion, which on its own was the most accurate in the 2008 Autumn Election.  This model indicates PM Harper would have began a hypothetical January 1st election campaign with a lead in 142 Ridings, followed by:  89 Liberals, 30 NDP, 45 BQ & 2 Indept's.

When our own numbers are blended with the other available models for a broader analysis, the findings are as featured in the headline chart above.  Today's presentation is based on the conversion of 6 national polls conducted Nov29-Dec15 2010 by 5 active projection models.  It reveals that the governing Conservative Party would have commenced an early January election campaign with a lead in 140 Seats ... up 9 from thirty days prior.  The Liberal Party would start with 89 Members (down 5).  The Bloc & NDP would have started an early Winter campaign with 49 & 29 Ridings respectively (plus one Indep't.  This is the eighth consecutive month where our long term momentum indicator is favouring the Tories (rather than the Grits) to top the standings right up to expiry of the current Parliament in October 2012 ... leading in 118 Ridings upon the dropping of that potential writ.

 

Dec 20 2010 ~ Coalition & CBC Desperate for Election ... Before "Fox-North" hits the airwaves!

The by-elections are done and all focus by CBC & the Coalition is on precipitating a Spring election before Sun Media changes the landscape.  An audience starved for real news analysis unbiased by pacifists, homosexuals & socialists is about to be satisfied...

Today's chart, illustrating the Grits would commence a potential campaign with a 17-seat lead (over 2008), may reflect voter dissatisfaction with Government efforts to maintain what was once a robust economic recovery.  While StatCan is currently reporting an annualized GDP of 1.3% for October, our Recession Indicator infers November was a scant 0.4% and Q4 1.3% ... barely avoiding double-dip!  As a result, Unemployment sits in a 7.6% quagmire.  Because we project sub 2% as far out as July 2011, it is a very bad environment for the Conservatives to attempt a run for the elusive Majority.

Everything seems to be working against PM Harper.  Bank of Canada had raised interest rates too quickly ... as we warned they would (in March 2010).  CMHC continues to feed the real estate bubble with its promotion of 5% down payments despite our warnings to pare back to 10% (a year ago).  Bad housing policy helped create Canada's $76,000 Housing Bubble.  The assault on net worth is hardly a remedy for consumer confidence building.  And with interest rates rising ... an export killing par-plus Loonie undermines job creation.  Leadership must be questioned when all this was indeed foretold.  The only prospect on the horizon is an expected "Fox-North" bump!

The TrendLines Research composite Riding Projection has been Canada's most accurate forecast tool, measured over the last four major (Federal/Ontario) elections.  Each month, its chart depicts the average of currently available seat projections from across Canada.  One of the models included is our own conversion, which on its own was the most accurate in the 2008 Autumn Election.  This model indicates PM Harper would have began a hypothetical December 1st election campaign with a lead in 134 Ridings, followed by:  101 Liberals, 27 NDP, 44 BQ & 2 Indept's.

When our own numbers are blended with the other available models for a broader analysis, the findings are as featured in the headline chart above.  Today's presentation is based on the conversion of 3 national polls conducted Nov1-30 2010 by 4 active projection models.  It reveals that the governing Conservative Party would have commenced an early December election campaign with a lead in 131 Seats ... up 3 from thirty days prior.  The Liberal Party would start with 94 Members (up 2).  The Bloc & NDP would have started a late Autumn campaign with 50 & 33 Ridings respectively.  This is the seventh consecutive month where our long term momentum indicator is favouring the Tories (rather than the Grits) to top the standings right up to expiry of the current Parliament in October 2012 ... leading in 115 Ridings upon the dropping of that potential writ.

 

Nov 26 2010 ~ Coalition's Worst Nitemare:  "Fox-North" given green light by CRTC

Today is a great day for our nation.  The CRTC has handed the Coalition its worst nitemare ... Sun Media can go ahead with its "Fox-North" project!  By Spring Canadian voters no longer must endure pacifists debating war strategy & F-35s, homosexuals dictating family values, or on-air socialists spewing anti-Americanism anti-Capitalist rhetoric or enabling it via pundits.  The USA 2010 mid-term Elections illustrated Fox-South's ability to wake-up the silent majority.  To preserve their ambitious social engineering agenda, the Coalition will do everything in its power to force a General Election prior to air date.

Today's chart illustrating the Grits would commence a potential campaign with a 15-seat lead (over 2008) may reflect voter dissatisfaction with Government efforts to maintain what was once a robust economic recovery.  While StatCan is currently reporting an annualized GDP of 1.3% for August, our Recession Indicator infers October was 0.8% and November probably negative.  In short, both Summer & Autumn sucked.  As a result, Unemployment sits in an 7.9% quagmire.  We see a mild rebound ahead, but it is a very bad environment for the Conservatives to attempt a run for the elusive Majority ... better to await the "Fox-North" bump!

The worst of this for PM Harper is that it is not of his doing.  Bank of Canada had raised interest rates too quickly ... as we warned they would (in March 2010).  CMHC continues to feed the real estate bubble with its promotion of 5% down payments despite our warnings to pare back to 10% (a year ago).  Bad housing policy helped create Canada's $75,000 Housing Bubble ... and home prices have been plunging by over $800/week since May 2010.  The assault on net worth is hardly a remedy for consumer confidence building.  And with interest rates rising ... an export killing par-plus Loonie undermines job creation.  Leadership must be questioned when all this was indeed foretold.  In any event, the Tories can take some solace in our continued assessment that Q1 will grow at an improved 1.7% pace.

The TrendLines Research composite Riding Projection has been Canada's most accurate forecast tool, measured over the last four major (Federal/Ontario) elections.  Each month, its chart depicts the average of currently available seat projections from across Canada.  One of the models included is our own conversion, which on its own was the most accurate in the 2008 Autumn Election.  This model indicates PM Harper would have began a hypothetical Nov 1st election campaign with a lead in 127 Ridings, followed by:  93 Liberals, 40 NDP, 45 BQ & 3 Indept's.

When our own numbers are blended with the other available models for a broader analysis, the findings are as featured in the headline chart above.  Today's presentation is based on the conversion of 6 national polls conducted Oct1-Nov1 2010 by 6 active projection models.  It reveals that the governing Conservative Party would have commenced an early November election campaign with a lead in 128 Seats ... down 1 from thirty days prior.  The Liberal Party would start with 92 Members (down 5).  The Bloc & NDP would have started an early Summer campaign with 52 & 35 Ridings respectively.  This is the sixth consecutive month where our long term momentum indicator is favouring the Tories (rather than the Grits) to top the standings right up to expiry of the current Parliament in October 2012 ... leading in 114 Ridings upon the dropping of that potential writ.

 

Oct 28 2010 Liberals Poised to gain 20 MPs upon an Improbable Autumn Election

Despite much self-interest on air promotion by CBC & CTV pundits for an Autumn election (code for ad revenues), the likely gain of only 20 Liberal seats should dampen that prospect.  This apparent Grit gain may reflect voter dissatisfaction with Government efforts to maintain what was a robust economic recovery.  While StatCan is currently reporting an annualized GDP of 1.6% for July, our Recession Indicator infers August was a mere 0.3% & September 0.8%.  In short, the Summer sucked.  As a result, Unemployment sits in an 8% quagmire.  We see a mild rebound in play, but it is a very bad environment for the Conservatives to attempt a run for the elusive Majority.

The worst of this for PM Harper is that it is not of his doing.  Bank of Canada is raising interest rates too soon ... as we warned they would (in March).  CMHC continues to feed the real estate bubble with its adherence to 5% down payments despite our warnings to pare back to 10% (a year ago).  Bad housing policy helped create Canada's $77,000 Housing Bubble ... and now home prices are plunging by over $800/week.  The assault on net worth is hardly a remedy for consumer confidence building.  And with interest rates rising ... an export killing par-plus Loonie undermines job creation.  Leadership must be questioned when all this was foretold.  In any event, the Tories can take some solace in our continued assessment that Q4 will grow at an improved 2% pace.

The TrendLines Research composite Riding Projection has been Canada's most accurate forecast tool, measured over the last four major (Federal/Ontario) elections.  Each month, its chart depicts the average of currently available seat projections from across Canada.  One of the models included is our own conversion, which on its own was the most accurate in the 2008 Autumn Election.  This model indicates PM Harper would have began a hypothetical Oct 3rd election campaign with a lead in 130 Ridings, followed by:  105 Liberals, 26 NDP, 46 BQ & 1 Indep't.

When our own numbers are blended with the other available models for a broader analysis, the findings are as featured in the headline chart above.  Today's presentation is based on the conversion of 5 national polls conducted Sept 2-28 2010 by 6 active projection models.  It reveals that the governing Conservative Party would have commenced an early October Election Campaign with a lead in 128 Seats ... up 1 from thirty days prior.  The Liberal Party would start with 97 Members (up 2).  The Bloc & NDP would have started an early Summer campaign with 52 & 31 Ridings respectively.  This is the fifth consecutive month where our long term momentum indicator is favouring the Tories (rather than the Grits) to top the standings right up to expiry of the current Parliament in October 2012 ... leading in 113 Ridings upon the dropping of that potential writ.

 

Sept 28 2010 CBC Pacifist/Pro-Abortionist using Petition as Final Act of Desperation to Halt Fox North

The on-air promotion of the Progressives (socialist) agenda by MSNBC & CNN has virtually bankrupted those media outlets via the alienation of the right wing and independent leaning components of their audiences and the inevitable loss in viewership and ad revenues.  This has enabled Fox News to decimate the ratings of the leftist cable news channels and capture the top 13 spots of 2010 programming.  Here in Canada, much less accountable CBC is heading down the same agenda-driven path.  Already facing a $1.8 billion annual loss in its last fiscal year, in part due to an 18% miss of its advertising targets, on-air pacifist & pro-abortionist Evan Solomon was imploring his audience to signup at a web-based petition to halt approval by CRTC of Sun Media's "Fox North" type specialty channel.

The Conservatives have visibly reduced their TV advertising.  The clumsiness of the pro-Liberal stance by the National & NewsNetwork (formerly Newsworld) since last October has thus far been a gift from God for the governing Party.  The daily emphasis of wedge issues appears to be crystallizing the Right's core support.  There will be great anticipation awaiting the effects on rural polling of CBC's anti long gun registry campaign.  Add to this the embarrassment by Canadian voters who recognized the Iranian President's UN 9/11 rant was entirely based on conspiracy speculation provided to him by CBC's Fifth Estate & the Passionate Eye.  Tin foil types at the CBC are convinced Bush blew up the towers and used a Cruise to blowup the Pentagon.  None of the global condemnation of Ahmadinejad's musings has yet blown back on the Network ... but we all know where he got his material!

Similarly, while CBC continues to assault the PM on his G8/G20 Summit effort, the rest of the known world is reveling in his contribution to currency stability.  Stephen Harper's cunning strategy to secure G-8/G-20 agreement for nations to sign on to an aspirational halving of their fiscal Deficits by 2014 caused much needed and timely confidence to infiltrate the international investment community.  The EUR:USD exchange had plummeted to a 1.18 rate.  Assisted by the UK Conservative Party's austerity announcement in the days before the Summit ... and wide adoption of that measure by the EuroZone, the exchange rate is a robust 1.36 today!  Late September polling results could very well be the final dagger thru Iggy's heart as he finds himself an innocent victim to CBC's failed on-air strategy to assist the Liberals' cause in order to cement its own survival.

The economic contraction ended August 2009, but the impressive recovery retreated to the brink of double-dip in August ... probably a mere 0.3% GDP.  Back on March 5th, I had warned (via our Recession Index) that Bank of Canada may have to ratchet back if it raised interest rates too quickly in light of a probable double-dip in the USA, an export killing par-plus Loonie & a winding down of Canada's $79,000 Housing Bubble.  Carney has since raised rates three times.

BofC & the Minister of Finance had assured Canadians that there is no realty bubble up here.  In the meantime, the national average has been plunging over $1,600/week since the May peak in home price.  As the 6% decline thus far matches the cumulative drop in Canada's 1989 bubble event, PM Harper can take some solace in our current assessment that Q4 will grow at an improved 2.1% pace.

The TrendLines Research composite Riding Projection has been Canada's most accurate forecast tool, measured over the last four Federal/Ontario elections.  Each month, its chart depicts the average of currently available seat projections from across Canada.  One of the models included is our own conversion, which on its own was the most accurate in the 2008 Autumn Election.  This model indicates PM Harper would have began a hypothetical Sept 3rd Election Campaign with a lead in 120 Ridings, followed by:  114 Liberals, 26 NDP, 47 BQ & 1 Indep't.

When our own numbers are blended with the other available models for a broader analysis, the findings are as featured in the headline chart above.  Today's presentation is based on the conversion of 7 national polls conducted Aug 2 - Sept 3 2010 by 8 active projection models.  It reveals that the governing Conservative Party would have commenced an early September Election Campaign with a lead in 127 Seats ... down 6 from thirty days prior.  The Liberal Party would start with 95 Members (up 9).  The Bloc & NDP would have started an early Summer campaign with 53 & 33 Ridings respectively.  This is the fourth consecutive month where our long term momentum indicator is favouring the Tories (rather than the Grits) to top the standings right up to expiry of the current Parliament in October 2012 ... leading in 112 Ridings upon the dropping of that potential writ.

 

Aug 20 2010"Evan Solomon, you have been trying to help me since October ... PLEASE STOP !"

It's the summer doldrums and attention is on tomorrow's Australian election, so we'll keep this short.  As one views today's chart, we can all hear Mr Ignatieff saying just one thing:  "Evan Solomon, you have been trying to help me since October ... PLEASE STOP !"

The Recession was over in March 2009, the contraction in August 2009, but the impressive recovery appears to be on the brink of delivering its first bout of bad economic news for PM Harper.  We're predicting StatCan will at month end announce Q2 GDP of 5.4%, which of course is good, but a sudden breakdown in leading indicators infers next month's announcement of July GDP will be a dismal 1.8% growth rate.  On the horizon, the winding down of fiscal stimulus, a probable double-dip in the USA, an export killing par Loonie & a winding down of Canada's $79,000 Housing Bubble ... could combine to dampen GDP to the 1.1% vicinity by mid 2012.  The monthly average for national home prices has declined $17,000 since the May peak.

The TrendLines Research composite Riding Projection has been Canada's most accurate forecast tool, measured over the last four Federal/Ontario elections.  Each month, its chart depicts the average of currently available seat projections from across Canada.  One of the models included is our own conversion, which on its own was the most accurate in the 2008 Autumn Election.  This model indicates PM Harper would have started a hypothetical Aug 1st Election Campaign with a lead in 133 Ridings, followed by:  97 Liberals, 29 NDP, 48 BQ & 1 Indep't.

When our own numbers are blended with the other available models for a broader analysis, the findings are as featured in our headline chart above.  Today's presentation is based on the conversion of 5 national polls conducted July 5-27 2010 by 8 active projection models.  It reveals that the governing Conservative Party would have commenced an early August Election Campaign with a lead in 133 Seats ... up 2 from thirty days prior.  The Liberal Party would start with 86 Members (down 1).  The Bloc & NDP would have started an early Summer campaign with 53 & 36 Ridings respectively.  For the third consecutive month, these are the first results since December 2008, where our long term momentum indicator is favouring the Tories (rather than the Grits) to top the standings right up to expiry of the current Parliament in October 2012 ... leading in 112 Ridings upon the dropping of that writ.

 

July 26 2010Can UK Coalition Agreement Raise the Bar in Canada?

The spirit of cooperation and conciliation resulting in a marvelous Coalition Agreement in the days after the UK Election certainly throws down the gauntlet to Canadian politicians.  The Agreement offers guidance on a myriad of platform issues to be dealt with over the next five years, and awards several Cabinet posts (incl Deputy PM) to the Liberal-Democrats by the Conservatives.

Facing its first crisis, a potential currency devaluation engineered by bond vigilantes due to a monumental deficits and national debt, the two parties agreed to an austerity budget chopping program spending by 25%.  Only the solidarity of their political union enabled these bold measures.  Many jurisdictions are besieged with partisanship to the degree that situations have become so adversarial as to make their legislation process dysfunctional.  The UK model illustrates 2 plus 2 can equal 5.  The quest for power was secondary.

Meanwhile, PM Harper will continue to get great news on the economic front.  We're predicting StatCan will this week announce May GDP of 7.5% ... a growth rate not seen since 2002.  Next week should see further decline in the Unemployment Rate.  On the horizon, the winding down of fiscal stimulus and a probable double-dip in the USA could dampen GDP to the 2.3% vicinity by October.  Despite short, medium & long term problems in the USA, Canada's GDP should return to the 2.7% mean by 2012Q2.

The TrendLines Research composite Riding Projection has been Canada's most accurate forecast tool, measured over the last four Federal/Ontario elections.  Each month, its chart depicts the average of currently available seat projections from across Canada.  One of the models included is our own conversion, which on its own was the most accurate in the 2008 Autumn Election.  This model indicates PM Harper would have started a hypothetical July 3rd Election Campaign with a lead in 132 Ridings, followed by:  95 Liberals, 32 NDP, 48 BQ & 1 Indep't.

When our own numbers are blended with the other available models for a broader analysis, the findings are as featured in our headline chart above.  Today's presentation is based on the conversion of 5 national polls conducted May30-July3 2010 by 6 active projection models.  It reveals that the governing Conservative Party would have commenced an early July Election Campaign with a lead in 131 Seats ... down 5 from thirty days prior.  The Liberal Party would start with 87 Members (same).  The Bloc & NDP would have started a late Spring campaign with 52 & 37 Ridings respectively.  For the second consecutive month, these are the first results since December 2008, where our long term momentum indicator is favouring the Tories (rather than the Grits) to top the standings right up to expiry of the current Parliament in October 2012 ... leading in 109 Ridings upon the dropping of that writ.

 

June 30 2010Sun Media bringing a "FoxNorth" to Canadians Desperate for Fair & Balanced News!

Just days after our CBC rants, Sun Media has announced its desire to bring fair and balanced news via a Canadian Cable Channel.  Fox News claimed another victim south of the border this week ... Larry King.  With Fox owning the top 13 cable news programs, Sun no doubt sees the same opportunity in Canada for a national broadcaster that caters to audiences desperate to get away from the left wing drivel that has polluted the airwaves.  CNN & MSNBC are near bankruptcy.  CBC is the obviously the vulnerable target north of the 49th.

CBC has finally dropped the two-pronged attack on the Conservative Gov't.  Its pacifist position on Afghanistan has no visible public support.  And CBC's on-air obsession with free abortions was finally put to rest the day after a report from Canadian hospitals surfaced revealing 3 late-term abortions are performed every single day in Canada.  The unholy alliance between CBC and the Liberal Party resulted in the latter's fortunes plummeting to a mere 87 potential seats by the end of May.  A failed experiment for both.  The CBC comes out of this with a $1.8 billion operating deficit as advertising revenue from firms with right wing sentiment withdraw.  CBC missed its ad target by 18% in its last financial report.

Meanwhile, PM Harper will continue to get great news on the economic front.  We're predicting StatCan will announce within four weeks that growth's recent record of 5.7% GDP set in January could be surpassed, along with another decline in the Unemployment Rate.  On the horizon, the winding down of fiscal stimulus and a probable double-dip in the USA should dampen GDP to the 2.3% vicinity by Spring 2012, followed by a return to the 2.7% mean shortly thereafter.

The TrendLines Research composite Riding Projection has been Canada's most accurate forecast tool, measured over the last four Federal/Ontario elections.  Each month, its chart depicts the average of currently available seat projections from across Canada.  One of the models included is our own conversion, which on its own was the most accurate in the 2008 Autumn Election.  This model indicates PM Harper would have started a hypothetical June 1st Election Campaign with a lead in 136 Ridings, followed by:  87 Liberals, 35 NDP & 50 BQ.

When our own numbers are blended with the other available models for a broader analysis, the findings are as featured in our headline chart above.  Today's presentation is based on the conversion of 7 national polls conducted April30-June1 2010 by 7 active projection models.  It reveals that the governing Conservative Party would have commenced an early June Election Campaign with a lead in 136 Seats ... up 4 from thirty days prior.  The Liberal Party would start with 87 Members (down 2).  The Bloc & NDP would have started a late Spring campaign with 50 & 35 Ridings respectively.  For the first time since December 2008, our long term momentum indicator is favouring the Tories (rather than the Grits) to top the standings right up to expiry of the current Parliament in October 2012 ... leading in 109 Ridings upon the dropping of that writ.

 

May 14 update:  CBC Fails to Provoke Federal Election

Due to our recent "rants" regarding lack of objectivity in CBC news and current affairs content, Hubert Lacroix, president of CBC, today announced an outside "study" of these bias claims.  It is to be released by Thanxgiving Day.  It was a doubly somber day at CBC with the announcement that a multi-party agreement has been forwarded to the Speaker on the release of Afghan detainee documents issue.  It has been apparent for seven months that the CBC has been inflaming this situation with aspirations of provoking a snap General Election.  CBC needed the ad revenue.

Failing to generate these funds, CBC joins Greece & California as a dead man walking.  Documents procured by TrendLines Research reveal the CBC's annual operating deficit has reached $1.8 billion.  Its TV advertising revenue has declined.  More instructively, CBC missed its $352 million TV ad target by $65 million (18%).  Less than 3% of Canadians are watching/listening to CBC each day.

CBC content had deteriorated to tabloid-style sensationalist "journalism" with few segments putting issues in their proper context.  CBC has adopted an MSNBC far left political agenda which drives away conservative audiences.  By openly advocating radical socialist issues and opinions, its on-air personalities risk damaging audience-share and subsequently ... advertising revenues.  This may be fine for a private corporation that is a soap-box for a liberal political motivations.  MSNBC will shortly join its radio counterpart (Air America) in bankruptcy.  But while MSNBC is beholden and answerable to its shareholder for its misguided strategy, Canadian taxpayers have no such venue for opposition to radical liberal factions of the CBC using this crown corporation (a national utility) for its promoting its platform.

It is time for common sense.  It is time for parliamentarians to privatize the CBC.  It no longer serves that national interest.  At the very least, CBC-TV should be transitioned to a pay-per-view cable/satellite option.  Similarly CBC-Radio & Radio-Quebec should be transitioned from their ad-free status and commence paying their own bills ... just as Greece, California, Spain & Portugal are being forced to implement austerity measures.  Canadian taxpayers face a $46 annual billion deficit in 2010.  Ridding themselves of $1.8 billion via reorganization of the CBC makes sense.  Its mandate of providing signals to the wilderness regions of Canada no longer applies.  Northerners near the Arctic Circle like myself get several free radio stations and for twenty bucks monthly receive 80 satellite TV channels on ShawDirect (StarChoice).  It's time...  (link)

 

May 5 2010:  Rogue CBC Agenda is Decimating Liberal Support

Unprecedented vicious attacks on North American conservatives by the far left has become a teachable moment in unintended consequences.  The Progressives' wing of the Democrat Party was unrelenting in their assault on Sarah Palin in 2009.  This year their target was Glen Beck.  Both movements were enabled by the Whitehouse and MSNBC.  Consider the shock when their investigative reporters found the aggressor-inspired notoriety resulted in Palin & Beck raking in $11 Million & $12 Million respectively.  Oops...

Nobody on the Right is getting wealthy in Canada, but the CBC assault on the Tories has been no less costly.  By enabling a small agenda-driven group of pacifists & pro-abortionists that have hijacked the news department at CBC, the Liberal Party has seen its core support decimated.  Save for a brief "prorogue" bump in January, the Grits have relapsed to the 80's in our seat projections.

As elaborated on last month, CBC's ill-founded strategy is based on four goals:  (a) liberalize free abortions in Canada and internationally;  (b) end Canada's involvement in the Afghanistan by indictments of 44 Canadian soldiers and diplomats for war crimes;  (c) a social engineering agenda promoting abortion;  and (d) build advertising revenues by prompting a federal election.

Canadian viewers have been subjected to sensationalized segments in a general deteriorated environment of tabloid-style journalism.   The least common denominator prevails.  This campaign, now in its seventh month, has seen Liberal support founder to less than 90 seats in no less than four of those months.  The alliance between the Liberal Party of Canada & CBC reflects a bankruptcy of leadership and fresh ideas at both institutions.

Andrew Coyne's thoughtful essay on the status and long-term prospects for the Liberal Party can provide guidance for its membership.  Alienation of its conservative and independent viewers has no doubt pared its audience share and correlated income.  When a rogue partisan agenda increases funding exposure to taxpayers in such detrimental fashion, it's time to sell that organization or transform it to a user-pay channel (akin to MSNBC) to be carried by its ideologue supporters ... not the general Canadian population.

On the good news front (at least for PM Harper), we're predicting StatCan will announce by month end a March 2010 GDP growth rate of 4.1% & another decline in the Unemployment Rate.  Unfortunately, failure by the US Congress to address its mounting Deficits & National Debt will continue to wreak havoc on the USDollar, and it secular debasement is taking the crude oil price on a journey to $91/barrel by Q3.  Exceeding this threshold matches the Gasoline/GDP ratio that decimated USA New Car Sales in 1980, 1990 & 2007, and sets the stage for an American double-dip Recession that will no doubt have harsh ramifications North of the 49th.

The TrendLines Research composite Riding Projection has been Canada's most accurate forecast tool, measured over the last four Federal/Ontario elections.  Each month, its chart depicts the average of currently available seat projections from across Canada.  One of the models included is our own conversion, which on its own was the most accurate in the 2008 Autumn Election.  This model indicates PM Harper would have started a hypothetical May 1st Election Campaign with a lead in 139 Ridings, followed by:  87 Liberals, 36 NDP, 45 BQ & 1 Indep't.

When our own numbers are blended with the other available models for a broader analysis, the findings are as featured in our headline chart above.  Today's presentation is based on the conversion of 5 national polls conducted April 21-29 2010 by 5 active projection models.  It reveals that the governing Conservative Party would have commenced an early May Election Campaign with a lead in 132 Seats ... up 1 from thirty days prior.  The Bloc & NDP would have started an early Spring campaign with 50 & 37 Ridings respectively.  Despite Ignatieff's standing falling 7 Members to 89, long term momentum continues to indicate that the Liberal Party will eventually take the projection lead (Sept 2012), and is poised for an ultimate 112 MP Minority victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in October 2012.

 

April 11 2010:  Time to Sell the CBC ~ Today's commentary is motivated by CBC's determined decision to program a sixth successive month of pro-abortion, pro-pacifist positions in its news broadcasts.  This serialized effort has been tracked in our "below the fold" blog.  To it we can add Evan Solomon's enlistment of Noam Chomsky (March 30) to further his Trotskyite socialist idealism and Terry Milewski (April 7) to cement their goal of committing to trial 44 members of the Canadian Forces for war crimes.  It was in this latter Power & Politics segment our soldiers faced accusations of "battlefield executions" by these CBC personalities.

Over the past six months, the projected seat count for the Conservatives has averaged 136 MPs compared to 92 for the Liberal Party.  Yet despite this obvious spread, CBC staff have taken on a very visible campaign to goad the Opposition into forcing a General Election.  What are their motives?  Two come to mind immediately:  they are in desperate financial straits & they fear the deficit-reduction environment has spawned sufficient sentiment to lay the groundwork for a partitioned sale of their media outlet by the Conservative Gov't as part of its strategic asset sales.

The CBC is plainly operating in survival mode.  It desires a Federal Election at a time when no Party can attain a Majority.  This strategy provides its TV division with guaranteed revenues over two election cycles over the next three years.  In particular, the CBC's News Department is void of objectiveness in its quest to survive.  It has adopted the very same opinionated rhetoric of its American counterparts.  Emboldened by the election of a Democratic president, leftist cable channels have been reduced to unsustainable market shares by loss of audiences to Fox News.  The top 13 rated news programs in the last quarter were indeed Fox programs.

By adopting Progressive-leaning MSNBC pundits and similar stands on moral issues (e.g. pro-abortion), CBC is heading down the same fatal path, but here in Canada it is at the peril of the Canadian taxpayer ... not shareholders.  Like MSNBC et al, CBC is alienating its conservative-leaning audience and advertisers.  Further, declining audiences will result is less revenues from its remaining advertisers.  As advertising revenues decline, the taxpayer will called upon for inevitable rising shortfalls.  By striving to become MSNBC-North, the CBC is exposing itself to be bankrupt ... both in terms of financial soundness and programming content.

The case is complete for ending the CBC in its present format.  As evidenced in recent CRTC Hearings, every residence in Canada has affordable ($20/month) access to basic multi-channel TV programming via cable or satellite.  While several USA cable news channels are about to meet their demise due to their thoughtless abandonment of right-wing audiences, those are commercial decisions where the only victims will be shareholders. It is inconceivable that such a suicidal path based on management ideology purposed should be adopted by a public agency such as the CBC.

In short, the taxpayer must not be forced to subsidize leftist zealots.  The election of a self-admitted Trotskyite president in the USA has encouraged like-minded socialists to further their cause by creating soapboxes within the mainstream media of North America.  Dogma is over-riding business sense decision making.  It is time to end the free platform for failed Progressive pundits, pacifists, anti-Catholic rhetoric & gloom merchants furthering their own agendas.  It is time to deconstruct CBC and sell off its parts or transform its TV Division to a pay channel where its present content will be soon gauged by audiences no longer under duress.  Similarly, its Radio Division should prove its financial feasibility by transformation from its commercial-free status.

On the good news front (at least for PM Harper), we're predicting StatCan will announce within three weeks a February 2010 GDP growth rate of 4.6% & another decline in the Unemployment Rate.  Unfortunately, failure by the US Congress to address its mounting Deficits & National Debt will continue to wreak havoc on the USDollar, and it secular debasement is taking the crude oil price on a journey to $91/barrel by Q4.  Exceeding this threshold matches the Gasoline/GDP ratio that decimated USA New Car Sales in 1980, 1990 & 2007, and sets the stage for an American double-dip Recession that will no doubt have harsh ramifications North of the 49th.

The TrendLines Research composite Riding Projection has been Canada's most accurate forecast tool, measured over the last four Federal/Ontario elections.  Each month, its chart depicts the average of currently available seat projections from across Canada.  One of the models included is our own conversion, which on its own was the most accurate in the 2008 Autumn Election.  This model indicates PM Harper would have started a hypothetical April 1st Election Campaign with a lead in 130 Ridings, followed by:  105 Liberals, 29 NDP, 43 BQ & 1 Indep't.

When our own numbers are blended with the other available models for a broader analysis, the findings are as featured in our headline chart above.  Today's presentation is based on practitioner canvassing and the conversion of 6 national polls conducted March 3-30 2010 by 5 active projection models.  It reveals that the governing Conservative Party would have commenced an early April Election Campaign with a lead in 131 Seats ... up 2 from thirty days prior.  The Bloc & NDP would have started an early Spring campaign with 47 & 34 Ridings respectively.  Despite Ignatieff's standing falling 4 Members to 96, long term momentum continues to indicate that the Liberal Party will eventually take the projection lead (March 2012), and is poised for an ultimate 120 MP Minority victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in October 2012.

 

March 18 2010:  TrendLiners will remember my reflections back on June 30 2009 that in the coming twelve months the Liberal leader would regret his "missed opportunity" of making seat count inroads by not forcing a Summer Election.  At that precise time, the Grits were enjoying a fourth month with the lead, and a frenzied segment of the North American media was irresponsibly reporting with a sense of glee the onset of a second Great Depression.  Conversely, I mused that my Recession Meter indicated the USA Recession had troughed three months prior and better economic news was on the horizon.

In October I mentioned Ignatieff had finally adopted a two-step election strategy towards Majority - probably something like 77 ridings to 117 to 157.  But again a nervous trigger finger prevailed.  Then came our bold prediction on Nov 20 2009 that all options were closed out for the Liberal Party as three factors were about to give the Conservatives a bump in sentiment:  an imminent GDP announcement of over 5% GDP growth, lower unemployment rates & lotsa Olympic-inspired patriotic enthusiasm.  It has all come to pass...

There is general agreement that this bump would have been even more overwhelming had PM Harper not prorogued Parliament.  But, that tactical maneuver enabled the Tories to capture a Majority in the Senate ... a small price to pay for an overall advantage in legislative process.  Anyway, Question Period is back in service ... but where in the world is Michael Ignatieff?

Granting me some latitude to muse about the future once again, there continues to be generally improving economic news, but we see storm clouds ahead.  For the first time, our USA Recession Meter is this week predicting the dreaded double-dip, based on this short-term chain of events:  (a) Congress/Obama fail to address their Deficit & National Debt bubbles;  (b) foreign investors commence to reflect on their role in enabling this bad behaviour;  (c) the secular decline of the USDollar resumes;  (d) by September, crude price rises past a threshold USA Petroleum Cost/GDP ratio represented by $91/barrel oil & $3.37/gal gasoline;  (e) USA New Car Sales re-collapse ... as occurred in 1980, 1990 & 2007.

It must be remembered that our Recession in Canada escalated from Technical to Severe 'cuz USA New Home & Car Sales had been decimated.  This dramatically hurt our related export sector, and a double-dip south of the 49th can replicate that episode.  Should the Bank of Canada be cautious on its incremental raising of interest rates via its Monetary Policy, a contraction can be avoided in this country.  On the currency side, today's $0.99 exchange rate infers market traders envision a $205/barrel WTI oil price in one year.

Historically, the Loonie rises 1-cent for each $8/barrel increase in crude.  Perceived as a commodity-based currency, an upward move in petroleum is considered a boon to the Alberta & Newfoundland energy sectors.  This $205 marker conflicts dramatically with the 1-yr target for USA contract crude (5% less than WTI) per our Barrel Meter:  currently $117/barrel.  A significant degree of speculation is in play.  The current contract price of $78/barrel warrants a fair value of the Cndn Dollar of only $0.83 today.

So with our Government engaged in multi-year Deficits in a Keynesian approach to modulate the last Recession; with The Hill mired in a hopeless state of dysfunction in the House of Commons and Committees; and with the nation facing a potential economic downturn for our largest trading partner ... what is the Opposition doing to address these concerns?

Well, I am dismayed to report for a fifth consecutive month the only vocal activity in Ottawa is the ongoing hijack of the agenda by pacifists from both the Opposition and the mainstream media.  They continue their irrational quest to lay war crime charges against 44 members the Canadian military operation active in Afghanistan back in 2006.  On behalf of Amnesty International & the BC Civil Liberties Assoc, certain MPs are abusing the Committee process to secure self-incriminating testimony from Canadian soldiers, diplomats, civil servants and other officials.  Their intent is to prepare a damning dossier to be ultimately presented to prosecutors at the Int'l Criminal Tribunal at the World Court in The Hague.  Ujjal Dosangh (Liberal), Paul Dewar (NDP), Evan Solomon (CBC) & Tom Clark (CTV) have been the visible proponents of this political agenda.

This effort has been brewing for some period of time. To these MPs, the measure is payback for the despised extension of Canada's Afghan mission 'til 2011.  It is a two front attack with hopes of ending our participation in 2010 ... not 2011.  One involves embarrassing Canada on the world stage via a very public war crimes investigation.  As many as 44 Canadians that have appeared or have been associated with the detainee transfers could face crimes against humanity charges based on MP actions to date.  At risk of arrest, such charges would prevent international air travel by said Canadian soldiers and others caught in the pacifist net.

The other path is a strategy to force the Canadian Gov't into building their own prisoner facility.  This is an inherited issue.  As background, rampant anti-Americanism within the Liberal Cabinet ranks prior to 2006 prevented Canada from handing off prisoners to the US forces for housing in the USA's newly built Afghan facility.  Instead, the Liberal Cabinet ordered our troops to pass off the detainees directly to Afghan authorities, despite the known torture and abuse history.  This action by the Paul Martin Liberals provided pacifists the ammunition to attempt to force the new Conservative Cabinet to build and administer its own facility in Kandahar.  They believed that in face of such a monumental task, it would be more probable for Canada to "cut and run" than incur that cost.  But in January 2006, the new Government refused the new facility, scoffed at leaving before 2012, and implemented an improved detainee agreement with the Afghan Gov't.  Most Opposition MPs see a political advantage to allow the unfolding of this travesty in order to embarrass the Conservative Gov't.  And the cynicism of Canadians towards adversarial partisan politics grows...

On the good news front (at least for PM Harper), we're predicting StatCan will announce within two weeks a January 2010 GDP growth rate of 7.3% & another decline in the Unemployment Rate.

The TrendLines Research composite Riding Projection has been Canada's most accurate forecast tool, measured over the last four Federal/Ontario elections.  Each month, its chart depicts the average of currently available seat projections from across Canada & the UK.  One of the models included is our own conversion, which on its own was the most accurate in the 2008 Autumn Election.  It indicates today that the Conservatives would have started a hypothetical March 1st Election Campaign with a lead in 122 Seats, followed by:  117 Liberals, 27 NDP & 41 BQ & 1 Indep't.

When our own study is blended with other available models for a broader analysis, the findings are as featured in our headline chart above.  Today's presentation is based on practitioner canvassing and the conversion of 7 national polls conducted Jan 29 to Mar 2 2010 by 7 active projection models.  It reveals that the governing Conservative Party would have commenced an early March Election Campaign with a lead in 129 Ridings ... up 8 from thirty days prior.  The Bloc & NDP would start a late Autumn campaign with 47 & 32 Ridings respectively.  Despite Ignatieff's standing falling 7 Members to 100, long term momentum continues to indicate that the Liberal Party will eventually take the projection lead (January 2012), and is poised for an ultimate 120 MP Minority victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in October 2012.

 

Feb 14 2010:  Another month ... and another four weeks having to endure pacifists from both the Opposition and the mainstream media in their irrational quest to lay war crime charges against a score of members the Canadian military operation active in Afghanistan in 2006.  Almost escaping attention, was the high political price being paid by the Prime Minister for his second proroguing of Parliament.  The distasteful measure was absolutely necessary in order for him to secure a Conservative Majority in the Senate.

The end result was quite helpful to the Ignatieff Liberals.  Unfortunately for the Liberals, we're predicting StatCan will shortly announce a 2009Q4 GDP growth rate of 6.2%, as the economic recovery lays the foundation for further reductions in the Unemployment Rate.  Layered over this will be the patriotic enthusiasm building around successes at the Vancouver Olympics.

The TrendLines Research composite Riding Projection has been Canada's most accurate forecast tool, measured over the last four Federal/Ontario elections.  Each month, its chart depicts the average of currently available seat projections from across Canada & the UK.  One of the models included is our own conversion, which on its own was the most accurate in the 2008 Autumn Election.  It indicates today that the Conservatives would have started a hypothetical February 1st Election Campaign with a lead in only 115 Seats, followed by:  121 Liberals, 27NDP & 45 BQ.

Conversely, when our own study is blended with other available models for a broader analysis, the findings are as featured in our headline chart above.  Today's presentation is based on the conversion of 5 national polls conducted Jan 5 to Feb 2 2010 by 7 active projection models.  It reveals that the governing Conservative Party would have commenced an early February Election Campaign with a lead in only 121 Ridings ... down 22 from thirty days prior.  The Bloc & NDP would start a late Autumn campaign with 48 & 32 Ridings respectively.  On top of Ignatieff's standing rising 22 Members to 107, long term momentum continues to indicate that the Liberal Party will eventually take the projection lead (December 2011), and is poised for an ultimate 114 MP Minority victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in October 2012.

 

Jan 27 2010:  The Harper Conservatives ended the year with a potential seat count equal to their status after the October 2008 election ... 143 seats.  Pacifists from both the Opposition and the mainstream media have hijacked political discussion for yet another month in their irrational quest to lay war crime charges against a score of members the Canadian military operation active in Afghanistan in 2006.

Core support for the Ignatieff Liberals seems to have been established in low 80's.  Unfortunately for the Liberals, we're predicting StatCan will shortly announce a 2009Q4 GDP growth rate of 6.2%, as the economic recovery lays the foundation for further reductions in the Unemployment Rate.  If that's not enuf bad news in the short term, layered over this will be the patriotic enthusiasm surrounding the Vancouver Olympics.

The TrendLines Research composite Riding Projection has been Canada's most accurate forecast tool, measured over the last four Federal/Ontario elections.  Each month, its chart depicts the average of currently available seat projections from across Canada & the UK.  One of the models included is our own conversion, which on its own was the most accurate in the 2008 Autumn Election.  It indicates that the Conservatives would have started a hypothetical January 1st Election Campaign with a lead in 142 Seats, followed by:  92 Liberals, 30 NDP, 43 BQ & 1 Indep't.

When our own study is blended with other available models for a broader analysis, the findings as featured in our headline chart result.  Today's presentation is based on the conversion of 4 national polls conducted Dec 9-20 2009 by 5 active projection models (along with practitioner canvassing).  It reveals that the governing Conservative Party would have commenced an early January Election Campaign with a lead in 143 Ridings ... no change from thirty days prior.  The Bloc & NDP would start a late Autumn campaign with 47 & 32 Ridings respectively.  Albeit Ignatieff's standing rose only three Members to 86, long term momentum continues to indicate that the Liberal Party will eventually take the projection lead (January 2012), and is poised for an ultimate 112 MP Minority victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in October 2012.  This marks the third time since April that a Liberal Majority was not in the cards long term.

 

Dec 17 2009:  We've complained of the dysfunction in Ottawa for some time, and it's hard to believe that they could reach new lows.  But it's happened.  Despite all the urgent issues facing Canadians presently, pacifist-leaning parliamentarians have been attempting to hijack the political agenda.  The campaign has been facilitated by pacifist sympathizers within the mainstream Media.  On behalf of Amnesty Int'l & the BC Civil Liberties Assoc, certain MPs are abusing the Committee process to secure self-incriminating testimony from Canadian soldiers, diplomats, civil servants and other officials.  The intent is to prepare a damning dossier which will be presented to prosecutors at the Int'l Criminal Tribunal at the World Court in The Hague.

This effort has been brewing for some period of time.  To these MPs, the measure is payback for the despised extension of Canada's Afghan mission 'til 2011.  It is a two front attack with hopes of ending our participation in 2010.  One involves embarrassing Canada on the world stage via a war crimes investigation.  As many as 44 Canadians that have appeared or have been associated with the transfers could face war crimes charges based on MP actions to date.  At risk of arrest, such charges would prevent int'l air travel by said Canadian soldiers and others.

The other is a strategy to force the Canadian Gov't to build their own prisoner facility.  This is an inherited issue.  As background, rampant anti-Americanism within the Liberal Cabinet ranks prior to 2006 prevented Canada from handing off prisoners to the Americans for housing in their newly built Afghan facility.  Instead, Cabinet ordered troops to pass off the detainees directly to Afghan authorities, despite the known torture and abuse history.  This provided pacifists the ammunition to force the new Conservative Cabinet to build and administer its own facility in Kandahar.  They believed that in face of such a monumental task, it would be more probable for Canada to "cut and run" than incur that cost.  Admittedly the Opposition MPs see a political advantage to embarrassing the Conservative Gov't as well.

Critical hemorrhaging of Ignatieff support has been sutured for the moment.  Unfortunately for the Liberals, we're predicting StatCan will shortly announce an October GDP growth rate of 4.2%, as the economic recovery lays the foundation for further reductions in Unemployment Rate.  Then add the patriotic enthusiasm surrounding the Vancouver Olympics.

The TrendLines Research composite Riding Projection has been Canada's most accurate forecast tool, measured over the last four Federal/Ontario elections.  Each month, its chart depicts the average of currently available seat projections from across Canada & the UK.  One of the models included is our own conversion, which on its own was the most accurate in the 2008 Autumn Election.  It indicates that on December 1st the Conservatives would have started a hypothetical Election Campaign with a lead in 148 Seats, followed by:  77 Liberals, 34 NDP, 48 BQ & 1 Indep't.

Today's broader analysis, as featured in our headline chart above, is based on the conversion of 6 national polls conducted Nov 7-25 2009 by 6 active projection models (plus practitioner canvassing).  It reveals that the governing Conservative Party would have commenced an early December Election Campaign with a lead in 143 Ridings ... down from 150 thirty days prior.  The Bloc & NDP would start a late Autumn campaign with 49 & 33 Ridings respectively.  Albeit Ignatieff's standing rose only one Member to 83, long term momentum continues to indicate that the Liberal Party will eventually take the projection lead (March 2011), and is poised for an ultimate 125 MP Minority victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in October 2012.  This marks only the second time since April that a Liberal Majority was not in the cards long term.

 

Nov 20 2009:  With Michael Ignatieff away licking his wounds, it's been rather a quiet month.  Pathetic as well some would say, as we watched some Liberal MPs (via tabloid-style Media facilitators) stoop to the equivalent level of ambulance-chasers as they pursued the noise-du-jour.  Right of center voters on both sides of the border are becoming impatient.  Sheesh, Sarah Palin events are outdrawing Obama.  Speaking of our favourite Trotskyite, while the whole world was celebrating the collapse of the Berlin Wall, Obama, Chavez & Layton were AWOL, no doubt mourning the anniversary of the death of international socialism.

But as the Media leaps off the Iggy bandwagon, Liberals should take solace that his post-honeymoon blues are neither unique nor fatal.  Just ask Stephen Harper.  After failing to pull the plug on the Martin Gov't in the Spring of 2005 (thanx, Belinda), the same Media was tar & feathering the Opposition Leader whilst openly attempting to recruit Peter Mackay.  From April to September that year, our riding projections for the Conservatives fell from 127 to 64 (see chart).  Then in phoenix fashion, Harper came back four months later (Jan/2006) to win governance with 124 MPs.  So the Ignatieff collapse from 125 to 82 these past few weeks is the first half of that same story.  The outcome is in his hands.  Unfortunately for the Liberals, we're predicting StatCan will shortly announce a September GDP growth rate of 5.2%, as the economic recovery lays the foundation for lower Unemployment Rates in Q1.  This and the Vancouver Olympics will draw the electorate from the doldrums.

The TrendLines Research composite Riding Projection has been Canada's most accurate forecast tool, measured over the last four Federal/Ontario elections.  Each month, its chart depicts the average of currently available seat projections from across Canada & the UK.  One of the models included is our own conversion, which on its own was the most accurate in the 2008 Autumn Election.  It indicates that on November 1st the Conservatives would have started a hypothetical Election Campaign with a lead in 152 Seats, followed by:  82 Liberals, 26 NDP, 47 BQ & 1 Indep't.

Today's broader analysis, as featured in our headline chart, is based on the conversion of 8 national polls conducted Oct 5 - Nov 3 2009 by 9 active models (plus practitioner canvassing).  It reveals that the governing Conservative Party would have commenced an early November Election Campaign with a lead in 150 Ridings ... up from 137 thirty days prior.  The Bloc & NDP would start an Autumn campaign with 48 & 28 Ridings respectively.  Albeit Ignatieff's standing has dropped from 95 to 82 Members, long term momentum continues to indicate that the Liberal Party will eventually take the projection lead (August 2010), and is poised for an ultimate 143 MP Minority victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in October 2012.  This marks the first time since April that a Liberal Majority was not in the cards long term.

 

Nov 9th By-election update:  2 Conservatives, 1 NDP & 1 BQ elected

 

Oct 21 2009:  Contrary to MSMedia hype, and despite the recent Liberal misfortunes, there was virtually no chance of a Conservative Majority had there been an early October federal election.  With only a few weeks 'til the Vancouver Olympics, and no gain seen for any of the three Opposition Parties, a snap election prior to release of the Spring 2010 Budget is quite improbable.

The electorate seems as annoyed with the MSMedia as they are with jockeying politicians.  While TrendLines Research was forecasting positive GDP growth by 2009Q3, many in the Media were irresponsibly reporting the onset of a great depression.  The monthly update release of our Recession Meter yesterday confirms that in only days, last October, the Technical Recession escalated to Severe category.  That was a full month prior the NBER had declared that the USA had entered another contraction.

It caught most of Canada's economists by surprise.  In a July 31 2008 Fox interview, only days before economic contraction turned into a Severe Recession, Jeff Rubin, our newest member of the Lunatic Fringe, was ill-advising the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates 2% to avert 6% Inflation by January 2009. By Oct 31 2008, three months into the $131/barrel collapse in Crude Price, Rubin remained confident that new oil price records would be set in 2009 and that the Recession would be over by January 2009, with the Unemployment Rate cresting shortly at 7%.  The media continues to fawn over his $200/barrel forecasts for 2010.

Like the Opposition, it serves their purpose for those in the Media that have adopted tabloid-style journalism and talk down the economy by any means that adds to ratings or revenues.  TrendLines declared in August that the Recession had ended in June.  No problem ... now the Media is predicting a double dip!  And we're predicting 3.9% GDP will be announced by StatCan Nov 30th...

The TrendLines composite Riding Projections have been the most accurate measured over the last four elections Federally and for Ontario.  Its chart depicts the 8-model average of current seat projections.  It includes our own conversion, which on its own was the most accurate in the 2008 Election.  Today, it indicates that on October 1st the Conservatives would have started a hypothetical Election Campaign with a lead in 133 Seats, followed by:  105 Liberals, 24 NDP, 45 BQ & 1 Indep't.  Before his tragic announcement of non-confidence amidst his Quebec troubles, Michael Ignatieff had adopted a strategy that becoming Prime Minister is two-step measure.  He would like an interim election to raise his MP count from 77 by a couple of dozen or more before going for governance.

In our broader analysis, based on the conversion of 6 national polls conducted Sept 3-30 2009 by 8 active models, the governing Conservative Party would have commenced an early October Election Campaign with a lead in 136 Ridings ... up from 123 thirty days prior.  Albeit Ignatieff's standing dropped from 111 to 95 Members, long term momentum continues to indicate that the Liberal Party will take the projection lead in January 2010, and is poised for an ultimate 164 MP Majority victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in October 2012.  The Bloc & NDP would start an Autumn campaign with 48 & 29 Ridings respectively.

 

Sept 16th 2009:  MPs are back from their Summer break, but already Parliament appears to be as dysfunctional as ever despite the last minute reconciliation in June.  In the spirit of fence mending, Stephen Harper has since granted audience to Layton & Ignatieff but once.  Speaking of Layton, his quest to re-brand the NDP by an opportunistic association with closet Trotskyite, Barack Obama of the Democratic Party, ran aground at the Convention.

Question Period & Parliamentary Committees have been chaotic since November 2008.  Or is it Spring 2006?  The PM continues his complete disdain for the MSMedia & Opposition MPs.  He is governing as if in Majority mode.  He has become the most hated man on-the-Hill.  It particularly got bad with his illegal 2008 Election call.  Then his pompous Proroguing of Parliament to avoid a motion of non-Confidence made it much worse.  In Canada, convention dictates that the Prime Minister must have the Command of the House ... that means 155 MPs.  Harper has only achieved this by manipulation and trickery.

Our own Riding Projection was the most accurate in the 2008 Election.  Today it indicates that on Sept 1st the Conservatives would have started a hypothetical Election Campaign with a lead in 126 Seats, followed by:  122 Liberals, 14 NDP, 45 BQ & 1 Indep't.  Sensing this virtual extinction, Jack Layton coalesced this week and has agreed to support the Govt's Ways & Means motion - a confidence vote.  The Conservatives have dodged a bullet again.

But this episode only extends the aforementioned gridlock that has lasted almost a year.  If Stephen Harper cannot cast aside ideologue constraints and find the depth of character to co-operate with Opposition MPs in a Minority environment, the time is sincerely appropriate for the Governor General to seek an alternative MP to lead Canada's Government.  Upon the next failed Confidence vote, GG Jean should deny the PM his request for an Election ... a deed she in which she was amiss in September 2008, considering the newly legislated fixed Election Date.  Jean should take up her responsibilities under our Westminster Electoral System and offer governance to the Leader of the Opposition.

It is shameful that this week Canada faced the prospect of a fourth Election in slightly over five years.  The nation is at the verge of banana republic designation.  The Conservative Party does not deserve an Election for yet another fling at Majority.  It used up that chit with last year's Writ.  As uncomfortable and troubling the unholy Opposition alliance may feel, Westminster dictates that this is the preferred and correct option for Governor General Jean.

Albeit a rare measure for Canada, it is the dictated course of action as determined by decades of convention in dozens of nations around the world that share our Westminster model.  Consistency with electoral precedent is paramount to her favour  to a Prime Minister.  Her peers and Constitutional scholars demand it and will rebuke her is she falters (again).  In short, under the present atmosphere, an Election is undeserved and far too expensive, and should only be awarded should both Leaders of the Opposition Parties decline an offer to form a Government.  Of course this distasteful scenario can easily be averted by our PM practicing political maturity until October 2012.

In our broader analysis, we welcome Bernard von Schulmann (BC  Iconoclast) as the eighth available seat projection model for our monthly compilations.  Based on the conversion of 8 national polls conducted July 3 - Sept 4 2009 by 5 active models, the governing Conservative Party would have commenced an early September Election Campaign with a lead in 123 Ridings ... up from 118 thirty days prior.  Albeit Ignatieff's metric dropped from 116 to 111 Members, long term momentum indicates that the Liberal Party will take a permanent lead in fortunes from this point onward, and is poised for an ultimate 180 MP Majority victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in October 2012.

 

August 10th 2009:  Without question the most exciting political event of the Summer break has been Jack Layton's proposal to drop the "New" from NDP.  It is visionary and could resolve the Party's 4th place quagmire in the long term.  This strategy sheds the visible ties with its Socialist roots and takes advantage of young/immigrant voter illiteracy to tie its fortunes with the present wave of popularity of Obama's Democratic Party.  Failure to reignite the Party in this fashion dooms the labour lobby group to an eventual merger with the Liberal Party in a "unite the left" inevitability.

The Liberal Party is no doubt recognizing its missed opportunity in June for triggering an Election and subsequent governance.  Opposition Leader Ignatieff failed to seize an opportunity where all news was bad news for the Conservative Party, and at a peak.  As TrendLines has been predicting for several months, the USA is not headed for a Depression.  Its Technical Recession became a Severe Recession in August 2008.  This contraction ended in May 2009, as will be announced by the NBER in January 2010.  American auto & new home sales have bottomed as foretold as well.

This bodes well for an imminent Canadian economic recovery.  Each succeeding month will bring better news for Canada & the Conservatives.  Our Technical Recession started August 2008, deteriorated to a Severe Recession in November. bottomed in January 2009 has most probably ended last month.  Ignatieff was correct in reading that the electorate doesn't want an Election.  But, he shall regret that June decision over the coming seasons as his numbers dwindle.

This puts at risk the Liberal Party's long term momentum.  The Leadership bump peaked in April.  Voters now appear to be in watchful-waiting mode, looking for qualities of leadership, team building & nonpartisanship among the two main Parties.  They seem tired of the "gotcha" tactics and general adversarial nonsense.

We welcome anonymous modeler CdnElectionWatch as the seventh available model for our monthly compilations.  The governing Conservative Party would have commenced a hypothetical early August Election Campaign with a lead in 118 Ridings ... up from 113 in June.  Albeit, Ignatieff fortunes have dropped from 122 to 116, long term momentum indicates that the Liberal Party will take a permanent lead in sentiment after August 2009, and is poised for an ultimate 184 MP Majority victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in October 2012.

 

June 30th 2009: This was a month where the Conservatives were besieged by a perfect storm of bad news and events:  rising unemployment, flu buggery, sexy isotopes, an ominous $50+ Billion projected Deficit & expansion of the leftist media's luv affair with Iggy.  This indeed was a missed opportunity for the new Opposition Leader.  It is difficult to imagine a better time for him to seize an opportunity.  As TrendLines has been predicting for several months, the USA is not headed for a Depression.  Its Technical Recession became a Severe Recession in August 2008.  This contraction bottomed in March 2009, as will be announced by the NBER in January 2010.  American auto & new home sales have bottomed as foretold as well.

This bodes well for an imminent Canadian economic recovery.  Each succeeding month will bring better news for Canada & the Conservatives.  Harper has dodged the bullet ... more like a volley of scud missiles!  Ignatieff was correct in reading that the electorate doesn't want an Election.  But, he shall regret this decision over the next year.

After a year, the prospects depend upon the outcome of long term momentum.  The Leadership bump peaked in April.  Voters appear to be in watchful-waiting mode, looking for qualities of leadership, team building & nonpartisanship among the two main Parties...

The governing Conservative Party would have commenced a hypothetical late June Election Campaign with a lead in only 112 Ridings ... up from 109 in May.  Ignatieff's momentum stalled in May, but still he could have started the Writ period with a 123 seat lead.  Long term momentum indicates that the Liberal Party will take a permanent lead in sentiment after August 2009, and is poised for an ultimate 185 MP Majority victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in October 2012.

 

June 13th 2009:  As the Opposition Leader prepares for his second "Probation Review" of the Gov't, pollsters seem eager to assist with that endeavour with a flurry of new surveys.

The previous Liberal leadership convention led to a 46-MP support bump by December 2006 for Dion.  Conversion of Spring 2009 national polls reveals that new Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff made a similar 52-MP gain.  Unfortunately for the Liberal Party, their recent move started from a much lower core base, and Ignatieff is quagmired at 129-MPs whereas the Liberals surged to 143 potential seats during Dion's rally.

The ruling Conservative Party would have commenced a hypothetical mid-June Election Campaign with a lead in only 109 Ridings ... down from 112 in May.  Ignatieff's momentum stalled in March, but still he could have started the Writ period with a 129 seat lead.  Long term momentum indicates that the Liberal Party will take a permanent lead in sentiment after August 2009, and is poised for an ultimate 190 MP Majority victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in October 2012.  Our Election Day targets are of course vulnerable to interim events en route and subject to the dynamics within an ultimate Election Campaign.  This includes interventions by Party Leaders or membership to avert erosion of core support.

 

June 8th 2009:  The USA's Severe Recession climaxed in March, paving the way for the 2009Q3 expansion long predicted by TrendLines Research.  USA New Home sales bottomed in January, good news for Canada's lumber industry.  Existing Home Prices bottomed in January laying a foundation for consumer spending in the USA and renewed trade with Canada.  Car & truck sales bottomed in February, a sigh of relief for Ontario's auto sector.  Albeit this will again be a "jobless recovery", and the Unemployment Rate will drift higher over the next 12 months, Confidence levels are already making large gains.

This sets the stage for the next era of governing and an eventual Election.  The Gov't will point to rising GDP.  The leftist Media & the Opposition will highlight lingering sector layoffs and continue to talk down the Canadian Economy.  As mentioned last month, the era wherein Governor General Jean was more probable to offer governance to the Leader of the Opposition rather than allow the PM's request for another Election (upon a failed Confidence Vote) has expired.

The previous Liberal leadership convention led to a 46 MP support bump by December 2006 for Dion.  Conversion of Spring 2009 national polls reveals that new Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff made a similar 48 MP gain.  Unfortunately for the Liberal Party, their recent move started from a much lower core base, and Ignatieff is quagmired at 125 whereas the Liberals surged to 143 potential seats during Dion's rally.

The ruling Conservative Party would have commenced a hypothetical early June Election Campaign with a lead in only 112 Ridings ... up from 109 in April.  Ignatieff's momentum stalled in March, but still he could have started the Writ period with a 125 seat lead.  Long term momentum indicates that the Liberal Party will take a permanent lead in sentiment after October 2009, and is poised for an ultimate 179 MP Majority victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in October 2012.

 

May 6th 2009:  30 weeks have passed since the October Election.  The era wherein Governor General Jean was more probable to offer governance to the Leader of the Opposition rather than allow the PM's request for another Election (upon a failed Confidence Vote) has expired.  Riding projections are no longer an academic exercise!

The previous Liberal leadership convention led to a 143 MP bump by December 2006 for Dion.  Conversion of April polls reveals that albeit Stephen Harper continues to hemorrhage support, rather little drifted to new Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff over the last month.

The ruling Conservative Party would have commenced a hypothetical late April Election Campaign with a lead in only 109 Ridings ... down from 117 in March.  Ignatieff's momentum has stalled, but could have started the Writ period with a 125 seat lead.  Long term momentum indicates that the Liberal Party will take a permanent lead in sentiment after January 2010, and is poised for an ultimate 166 MP Majority victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in October 2012.

 

April 3rd 2009:  (rev 9.0416) The last Liberal leadership convention led to a 143 MP bump by December 2007.  Conversion of March polls reveals yet more hemorrhaging of Harper & Layton support in favour of new Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff.  A reminder that it is improbable that Governor General Jean will permit another Federal Election before July; and even at that it would be the fourth in five years.

Regardless, the Conservative Party would have commenced a hypothetical late March Election Campaign with a lead in 117 Ridings ... down from 123 in January.  Ignatieff's momentum raised his count to 124 from 115.  Long term momentum indicates that the Liberal Party will take a permanent lead in sentiment after July 2010, and is poised for an ultimate 151 MP Minority victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in October 2012.

 

Feb 12th 2009:  The last Liberal leadership convention led to a 143 MP bump by December 2007.  Conversion of a flurry of early February polls reveals more hemorrhaging of Harper & Layton support in favour of new Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff.  A reminder that it is improbable that Governor General Jean will permit another Federal Election before July; and even at that it would be the fourth in five years.

Regardless, the Conservative Party would have commenced a hypothetical early February Election Campaign with a lead in 126 Ridings ... down from 134 in January.  OTOH, long term momentum indicates that the Liberal Party will take the lead in sentiment after June 2011, and is poised for an ultimate 130 MP Minority victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in October 2012.

 

Feb 7th 2009:  It is improbable that Governor General Jean will permit another Federal Election before July; and even at that it would be the fourth in five years.  Regardless, conversion of February's first national poll reveals more hemorrhaging of NDP support, and new Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff is the beneficiary.  The Conservative Party would have commenced a hypothetical early February Election Campaign with a lead in 130 Ridings ... down from 134 in January.  OTOH, long term momentum indicates that the Liberal Party will take the lead in sentiment after August 2011, and is poised for an ultimate 130 MP Minority victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in October 2012.

 

Feb 1st 2009:  Now that Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff has placed the Conservative Gov't on "probation", his March Review becomes the next milepost in this session's political soap.  Should PM Harper fail to win Confidence at that juncture, the Governor General has two options:

a) offer governance to the Liberal Leader, who in turn can reincarnate the Coalition or seek NDP & Bloc support for a Liberal led Accord;

b)  allow Harper to call the fourth General Election in less than five years, a mere 7 months from the recent Writ.

Regardless of the irresponsibility of the latter scenario, conversion of January's national polls reveals a significant loss of support for the governing Party since December, in favour of the NDP & Liberals.  The Conservative Party would have commenced a hypothetical late January Election Campaign with a lead in 134 Ridings ... down from 160 in December.  OTOH, long term momentum indicates that the Liberal Party will take the sentiment lead in May 2012 and is poised for an ultimate 118 MP Minority victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in October 2012. 

 

Jan 21st 2009:  As Budget Day approaches, it remains uncertain at this time whether Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff will support the Conservatives, revive the Dion Coalition Agreement or simply garner NDP & BQ support for a Liberal-only Government.

It is improbable that the Governor General would agree to a Harper request for a fourth Federal Election in less than five years, upon a failed Confidence vote. None-the-less, conversions of January's national polls reveal a significant turn of sentiment towards the Liberals, especially in Quebec.  The Conservative Party would have commenced a hypothetical mid-January Election Campaign with a lead in 135 Ridings.  OTOH, long term momentum indicates that the Liberal Party is poised for an ultimate 119 MP Minority victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in October 2012.

TrendLines Research tracked 17 recognized Riding Projection models leading up to the 2008 Election.  3 of these have been active Post Election, plus this week we introduce a new practitioner:  ÉrikG of (threehundredeight.com).  The "Jan 17th" data point is derived by averaging the results of 3 of these models, in turn based on 5 national polls conducted Jan 3-17 2009.

 

Jan 19th 2009 As Budget Day approaches, it remains uncertain at this time whether Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff will support the Conservatives, revive the Dion Coalition Agreement or simply garner NDP & BQ support for a Liberal-only Government.

Albeit it is improbable that the Governor General would agree to the prospect of a fourth Federal Election in less than five years upon a failed Confidence vote, conversion of January's national polls reveals a significant turn of sentiment towards the Liberals, especially in Quebec.  The Conservative Party would have commenced a hypothetical mid January Election Campaign with a lead in 136 Ridings.  OTOH, long term momentum indicates that the Liberal Party is poised for an ultimate slim 116 MP Minority victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in October 2012.

 

Jan 10th 2009 Four weeks ago, PM Stephen Harper averted losing governance to an Opposition Coalition by proroguing Parliament.  Should the January 27th Conservative Budget fail, it is uncertain at this time whether Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff would revive the Dion Coalition Agreement or simply garner NDP & BQ support for a Liberal-only Government.

Albeit it is improbable that the Governor General would agree to the prospect of a fourth Federal Election in less than five years, conversion of the first two national polls (Ipsos Reid & Nanos) of 2009 reveals a significant turn of sentiment towards the Liberals, especially in Quebec.  The Conservative Party would have commenced a hypothetical early January Election Campaign with a lead in 124 Ridings.  OTOH, long term momentum indicates that the Liberal Party is poised for an ultimate 136 MP Minority victory upon expiry of the current Parliament in October 2012.

 

Jan 9th 2009:  Four weeks ago, PM Stephen Harper averted losing governance to an Opposition Coalition by proroguing Parliament.  Should the coming Conservative Budget fail, it is uncertain at this time whether Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff would revive the Coalition Agreement or simply garner NDP & BQ support for a Liberal-only Government.

Albeit it is improbable that the Governor General would agree to the prospect of a fourth Federal Election in less than five years, conversion of the first national poll (Nanos) of 2009 reveals a significant turn of sentiment towards Michael Ignatieff, especially in Quebec.  The Liberals would have commenced a hypothetical early January Election Campaign with a lead in 136 Ridings.  Further, long term momentum indicates that the Liberals are poised for an ultimate 155 MP Majority upon the current Parliament's expiry in October 2012.

 

Dec 31 2008:  As the electorate digests the Opposition maneuverings surrounding the potential alliance of the Bloc Quebecois support of a Liberal-NDP Coalition, it is clear that the Conservative Party has been the sentiment beneficiary.  But, the surveys continue to reveal contradictions.  Albeit the most recent national poll reveals that voters favour the Coalition prospect, all of 'em show that should either the alliance break down, or the Governor General grants Stephen Harper's request for an Election upon a failed Confidence vote, most Canadians favour the Conservative Party.

Stephen Harper's task in this pre-Budget era involves adopting enuf left of center policy to entice the passing of the money bills whilst not alienating the right wing ideologues within his Party.

Today's conversion by 2 Riding Projection models reveals that the Conservatives have gained a slim Majority lead after a brief downturn in November.  The Conservative prospects would seem to be academic as it is improbable that another Election could occur 'til June 2009 at the earliest due to the recency of a Writ.

TrendLines Research tracked 17 recognized Riding Projection models leading up to the 2008 Election.  3 of these are currently active Post Election, and the "Dec 27th" data point is derived by averaging the results of two of those models, which are in turn based on NIL canvassing surveys & 4 national polls conducted Dec 9-27  2008.

 

Dec 13  2008:  As the electorate recovers from the torrid pace of events over the last few weeks and weighs who the caretaker should be to guide us thru these tad tougher economic times, the sentiment closely reflects the recent Election.  The Ignatieff bump comes via regaining much support previously lost to the NDP, but in turn losing some core support to the Conservatives.

Today's conversion by 2 Riding Projection models of this week's Angus Reid & Ipsos Reid national polls reveals that the Conservatives have gained a slim Majority lead.  The Conservative revival is academic as it is improbable that another Election could occur 'til June at the earliest due to the recency of a Writ.

Governor General Jean continues to garner the wrath of constitutional scholars worldwide for her acquiescence to the Prime Minister's request for prorogation of Parliament.  Methinx she has the message loud & clear that upon a failed Confidence vote, she shall have no option but to award governance to the Liberal/NDP Coalition.  From this point, Stephen Harper is master of his own demise.

TrendLines Research tracked 17 recognized Riding Projection models leading up to the 2008 Election.  3 of these are currently active Post Election, and the "Dec 12th" data point is derived by averaging the results of two of those models, which are in turn based on NIL canvassing surveys & 2 national polls conducted Dec 9-12  2008.

 

Dec 9  2008:  As they say, what a difference a day makes, eh!  Dion is out.  Rae is out.  Ignatieff is in.  With Canadians reassured that the Coalition is now just a hammer ... not an inevitability, the landscape is fundamentally changed.  Voters foresee that a Coalition is less probable under Ignatieff, but should that scenario unfold, it will have a firm hand, and not the scarier prospect of a socialist tribunal guided by Rae, Layton & Duceppe.  The outlook for a Harper landslide next Spring has been extinguished. 

With this turn of events, today's conversion by 2 Riding Projection models of the weekend's pertinent Angus Reid national poll reveals that the Conservatives continue to be ahead, but by the slimmest of leads.  The Liberal windfall also comes at the expense of the NDP.

TrendLines Research tracked 17 recognized Riding Projection models leading up to the 2008 Election.  3 of these are currently active Post Election, and the "Dec 6th" data point is derived by averaging the results of two of those models, which are in turn not based on canvassing, but rather 1 national polls conducted Dec 5-6  2008.

 

Dec 8  2008:  Canadian & International convention with respect to the Westminster Parliamentary system deems it improbable that a Federal Election shall be held prior to June 2009.  Regardless, the Liberal Party seems intent on replacing Stéphane Dion just in case the Governor General surprises all concerned by ignoring the recency factor and allowing Stephen Harper a snap Election upon failure of the 2009 Budget or other Confidence motions.

Upon that prospect, today's conversion by 3 Riding Projection models of 6 early-December national polls reveals the Conservatives would enjoy a landslide victory in a Spring Election based on current sentiment.

TrendLines Research tracked 17 recognized Riding Projection models leading up to the 2008 Election.  3 of these are currently active Post Election, and the "Dec 6th" data point is derived by averaging their results which are in turn not based on canvassing, but rather 6 national polls conducted Dec 2-6  2008.

The "Nov" data point was similarly based on 2 models converting 2 national polls conducted Nov 11-29  2008.

 

Dec 6  2008:  Well, what a difference a week makes, eh!  Prime Minister Harper dodged a bullet by seeking a prorogation of Parliament, thus avoiding a sure-to-fail Confidence vote.  But in so doing, such a public outrage has developed surrounding the possibility of a ruling Opposition Coalition, that the Conservative fortunes have taken them from an embarrassing 113 potential MPs in November to an astonishing 204 this week.  In turn, the Dion's Liberals go from 116 to a mere 39 MPs.  Regardless of the Coalition being a legal ploy, folks are really troubled by this eventuality.  Ironically, this degree of punishment would see the Bloc resume their role as Her Majesty's Official Opposition.

There are rumours that Liberal MPs are circulating a petition to have Dion step down by the next Caucus meeting.  With public sentiment this one-sided, it is improbable that the Opposition will attempt to defeat the January 27th Budget.  But ... just in case this happens, Party Officials don't like the prospect of going to the electorate with Dion at the helm.  IMHO, it is not likely that Governor Genera Jean will grant Harper an Election upon non-Confidence.  It will have been 14 weeks since the 2008 contest.  But to be prudent, the Liberals gotta do what they gotta do.

The Liberal leadership contest finally has its wedge issue.  Rae is stalwart pro-Coalition.  Ignatieff seems to be back pedaling, and allowing Harper some "wiggle room' in case this proposition turns south, recognizing that he doesn't want to be on the wrong side of public opinion.

Getting back to our second post-Election Seat Projection:

Today's conversion by 2 Riding Projection models of 4 early December national polls (Leger, Ipsos Reid, EKOS & COMPAS) reveals the current status:  43 BQ, 204 Conservatives, 39 Liberals, 20 NDP & 2 Indep't MPs (Que & NS).  With the improbability of an Autumn Election, long term momentum indicates these targets for the fixed Election in 2012:  63 BQ, 157 Conservatives, 51 Liberals, 35 NDP & 2 Indep't MPs.  These standings are of course vulnerable to the dynamics of an ultimate Election Campaign and interim events.

The "Dec 4th" data point is derived by averaging 2 of 17 recognized post-2006 Riding Projection models.  These recent model results are not based on canvassing, but rather 4 national polls conducted Dec 2-4  2008.

The "Nov" data point is derived by averaging 2 of 17 recognized post-2006 Riding Projection models.  These recent model results are not based on canvassing, but rather 2 national polls conducted Nov 11-29  2008.

 

Nov 29 2008:  We're back!!  Regular TrendLiners won't be surprised that the tracking is back on.  It was no secret that i was sincerely troubled by Stephen Harper's decision to ignore his own fixed election legislation.  I considered his request for a Writ an illegal action.  One that would yield a heavy price when Parliament resumed.  The absence of an outcry by the Opposition Parties meant "the trap" was set...

Let's recall my pre-Writ and mid-Campaign analysis:

Sept 1st   It is probable that an Injunction will be sought to prevent the Prime Minister taking the opportunistic step of calling  an Election in the absence of a failed Confidence Vote in the House of Commons.  Should Stephen Harper call an Election under these distasteful circumstances, it is probable that in the event of a Minority situation in October, the Opposition Parties will unite in a formal Coalition and request the Governor General to award them Governance.  If she resists, an immediate non-Confidence Vote upon the resumption of Parliament would ensue and resolve this nasty episode.

Sept 2nd:  It is very probable that an Injunction will be sought to prevent the Prime Minister taking the opportunistic step of calling  an Election in the absence of a failed Confidence Vote in the House of Commons.  It was his own legislation that was to prevent ruling Govt's from calling Elections "on a whim".

Should Stephen Harper call an Election under these distasteful circumstances, it is probable that the Opposition have an elaborate trap in store ... hence the feint furor.  In the event of a Minority situation in October, the Opposition Parties will likely unite in a formal Coalition and request the Governor General to award them Governance.  If she resists, an immediate non-Confidence Vote upon the resumption of Parliament would ensue and resolve this nasty episode.  Only a Majority will save the Conservatives from losing governance ... and that prospect is doubtful.

Oct 2nd:  With only 12 days to go, the hemorrhaging seems to have taken a pause as the two nites of Leaders Debates are upon us.  Congrat's to Democracy Watch on taking up our Aug 30th proposal for injunctive action.  They are headed to Federal Court to challenge PM Harper's illegal Election Writ; specifically its failure to be preceded by a Confidence vote in the HofC.  It is unlikely that the Election will be set aside, but in a measure of just retribution, it is very probable (as we proposed on Sept 1st) that the combined Opposition Parties will approach the Governor General to express their lack of Confidence in another Conservative Minority and will propose that they be allowed form a Gov't Coalition.  If she balks, the action will be repeated after the first Confidence vote upon recall of Parliament at which time she will have no alternative but to oblige.  We are humbled to see that the Coalition issue was added to the Leaders Debate.

It will also be recalled that each of our Daily Charts from Sept 24th included a "Coalition tally".

As the world unfolded as predicted this week, it seems only internal spats within the Liberal Party can derail this scenario.  Some don't want Stéphane Dion as PM;  some fear a Cndn Dollar and/or TSE Index collapse upon rumours of Jack Layton positioning himself to be Finance Minister as part of the Coalition.

The actions taken on Friday were a delayed reaction due to the Liberals being distracted by their own lynching intentions.  Being a Minority, the Harper Cabinet was sworn in this month at the pleasure of the Opposition.  By Westminster conventions, the responsibility of Governance can be taken away at any time.  The Governor General will have no basis in law or convention for disallowing the request of the Opposition to resume governance as the majority camp of MPs.

They can propose two alternatives:  a Coalition (NDP & Liberals share Cabinet positions) that excludes the Bloc Quebecois for public relations realities;  or a ruling Opposition whereby the BQ & NDP agree (verbally via House Leaders or in written agreement) to support the Liberals as the replacement Gov't.  The Bloc appear willing to either scenario at this time.

The Governor General has the responsibility of handing over governance to the group of MPs that has the Confidence of the majority of MPs.  Today, that is clearly the 163 Opposition MPs (77-L, 49-BQ & 37-NDP) vs the failed 145 Gov't side MP(143-C & 2 Indept's).  She has no options in law or by convention.  An Election is out of the question due to recency.

Anyway, i digress ... so let's get to the first post-Election Seat Projection:

Today's conversion by 2 Riding Projection models of the initial post-Election national poll (Nanos) reveals the current status:  47 BQ, 103 Conservatives, 114 Liberals, 42 NDP & 2 Indep't MPs (Que & NS).  With the improbability of an Autumn Election, long term momentum indicates these targets for the fixed Election in 2012:  66 BQ, 52 Conservatives, 128 Liberals, 60 NDP & 2 Indep't MPs.  These standings are of course vulnerable to the dynamics of an ultimate Election Campaign and interim events.

The "Nov" data point is derived by averaging 2 of 17 recognized post-2006 Riding Projection models.  These recent model results are not based on canvassing, but rather 1 national poll conducted Nov 11-15  2008.

This month's results are based on our own applications of the H&K Predictor and the Antweiler Matrix Forecaster, followed by a final overlay of our Long Term Momentum Indicator.

xxx

2008 Pre-Election Blog

 


 

MP Seat Projection for Oct 14th 2008 Canadian Federal General Election

 

How did the Riding Projection models fare this year?   And over 4 Elections?

     

Canada Election 2008

Werner Antweiler UBC Election Stock Market Dan Arnold Nick Boragina

(niXtuff)

Milton Chan Paul Adams

EKOS Research

Harry Hayfield Barry Kay

LISPOP WLU

Greg Morrow

Democratic Space

Segma Paulitics Arithmetic Universal Swing via Antweiler Voter Matrix Paulitics Geometric Projection via Antweiler Voter Matrix Freddy Hutter TrendLines via Hill & Knowlton Predictor Freddy Hutter TrendLines via Antweiler Voter Matrix Freddy Hutter TrendLines via Pickup Observatory Corrector + H&K Forecaster Freddy Hutter TrendLines via LongTerm Momentum Indicator TrendLines MultiModel

14-model Avg

  FINAL
CPC 131 133 126 125 136 129 132 126 140 133 131 131 139 125 131 131   143
Liberal 89 86 88 94 84 86 90 92 60 80 81 84 79 99 105 85 77
Bloc-Q 47 52 51 51 51 52 51 52 57 55 55 50 48 51 42 52 49
NDP 39 36 40 36 35 41 33 36 50 38 40 42 41 33 28 39   37
Ind & Gr 2 1 3 2 2 0 2 2 1 2 1 1 1 0 2 1 2

 rev 2008/10/24 8pm PST    

Riding Errors:   28 24 34 38 18 30 32 36 42 20 26 26 12 46 56 26  
 2008    Rating: 8th 7th 11th 13th  2nd 10th 9th 12th 14th  3rd 4th 4th    - 1st  -     see below! 15th 16th 4th
2006: 2nd     1st     4th 3rd             5th 6th
2004:       1st 2nd   3rd               5th 3rd
Best Record after 3 Elections:       2nd     2nd                4th 1st
2007 Ontario:       8th     4th 7th   1st 4th       9th 4th
4/Election LowScore Points:       23     19               34 17
Best Record after 4 Elections:       3rd     2nd                4th -  1st  - see below!
Best 3 of 4 Record:       1st  6th   2nd  5th              4th 3rd
   

 

    2006 Canadian Election Models Scoreboard   ~   2004 Canadian Election Models Scoreboard   ~   2007 Ontario Election Models Scoreboard  

 #1 Projection in 2008!

Nov 6 ~ TrendLines Research Monthly Tracker was the most accurate projection model of the 2008 Campaign ... followed by Paul Adams (EKOS) & Socialist Paul (Paulitics). This chart was not publicly available during the Campaign, but has been familiar to TrendLiners as our "between-writ" chart since April 2005.

 #1 Projection Model across 4 Elections!

Nov 6 ~ With a 4th place finish in 2008, TrendLines Research Daily Multi-Model Tracker becomes the most accurate of all the online projection models that attempted to predict the 2004/2006/2008 Canada & 2007 Ontario Elections ... followed by Barry Kay (LISPOP) & Milton Chan.

 

MP Seat Projection for Oct 14th 2008 Canadian Federal General Election:

 

Chart below shows Liberals gained 27 unforeseen MPs on Election Day in 2004 & 29 in 2006 compared against the multi-model Seat Projections.  Rather than history repeating itself, the Liberal Party lost 8 potential MPs (as of 10pm PST) this time around ... rather than our Target of 105.

TrendLines Research's Canadian Federal Election Day (Oct 14th 2008) Projection:
34.5%

131 Conservative MPs

Oct 15th 6pm Update - Looking at only the "headliner" Riding Projections (those that were WWWeb available to the public, analysts & pundits alike during the Campaign), this year's best of class was Paul Adams of EKOS Research. This model was second best in 2004 & n/a in 2006.

In second place this year was anonymous Paul of Socialist Investigations (Paulitics) using his proprietary Arithmetic (Universal Swing) methodology.

There was a tie for 3rd place honours:  Again is Paulitics, this time using its Geometric methodology that applies the Werner Antweiler Voter Matrix Forecaster.  Paul used it to tie for 1st place in the 2007 Ontario Election.  The other is our own TrendLines 14-model Avg.  It placed 3rd in 2004, 6th in 2006 & 4th in Ontario 2007.  After three Federal Elections and the Ontario contest, this multi-model Avg is now the overall leader of Riding Projection indicators, displacing Milton Chan.

Chan's 13th of 16 placing last nite on top of a dismal 8th of ten in Ontario last year is cause for ElectionPrediction's recent fall from grace.  Similarly, Greg Morrow's fleeting notoriety is perhaps irreparably tarnished with a 12th of 16 yesterday following DemocraticSpace's 7th of 10 in the Ontario campaign.

Oct 15th 2am Update - Compare Elections Canada results:  C-37.6, L-26.2, N-18.2, B-10 & G-8 with Angus Reid sentiment:  C-37, L-27, N-20, B-9 & G-7.  Not near as close as Nanos in 2006, but congrat's due, eh.  BTW, much abuse was heaped on Nik for his low 8.2% for Greens this month.  Lotsa bunk about cell phones, missing kids, methodology, etc.  True to form, he nailed it! 

Oct 15th 1am Update:   Best Riding Projections based on early morning results:  1st - Freddy Hutter's (TrendLines) application of Werner Antweiler's Voter Matrix Forecaster.  This model provides most of the monthly projections in the TrendLines Chart between Elections in the absence of other active models.  It was a component of the 14-model Avg during this Campaign but its running results were not publicly available.  2nd best yesterday:  Paul Adams of EKOS Research;  3rd place honours:  anonymous Paul of Socialist Investigations (Paulitics) at Univ of Ottawa using his Arithmetic Universal Swing Projection.

Oct 14th 11:45pm Update:   By early calculations & returns, it appears that Nik Nanos stellar polling performance of 2006 has been relinquished to Angus Reid!  And Milton Chan's "best of 2006" Riding Projection is replaced by TrendLines application of Werner Antweiler's Voter Matrix Forecaster.

Oct 14th 3pm PST Update:  Two late nite Thanxgiving Day nat'l polls (EKOS & Angus Reid) urged a review of all the models.  Both the 14-model Avg Projection Charts & the Scoreboard reflect today's revisions to this point in time.  While the polls moved a tad, no Party moved more than one Riding over the long weekend.

Today's revision of 7 of the Riding Projection models & 2 national poll updates produced these straight conversions:  131-C, 85-L, 52-BQ, 39-NDP & 1-Indie (in Quebec).  Based on past Federal Elections however, we deem these results as outliers that should be considered with caution.  TrendLines Research has greater confidence in the underlying trend as represented by our ultimate Election Day Long-Term Momentum Targets: 131 Conservatives, 105 Liberals, 42 BQ, 28 NDP & 2 Indep't MPs (Que & NS)  (dotted lines on the chart).  This would require many of the NDP & BQ potentials to move over to the Liberal column of the ledger tonite.

The "Oct/today" data points in these monthly & daily charts are derived by averaging 14 of 17 recognized post-2006 Riding Projection models.  These recent model results are based on canvassing & 8 national polls conducted Oct 4-13  2008 and reported prior to Midnite.

Included this week are studies by Antweiler, Arnold, Boragina, Chan, EKOS, Hayfield, Kay, Morrow, Socialist Paul, Segma & our own applications of the H&K Predictor, Antweiler Matrix Forecaster & Pickup Poll Corrector & followed by a final overlay of our Long Term Momentum Indicator.

Note the final "Sept/2008" outliers were based on 13 Riding Conversion models (Antweiler, Arnold, Boragina, Chan, EKOS, Hayfield, Kay, Morrow, Paul the Socialist, Segma & our own applications of the H&K Predictor, Antweiler Matrix Forecaster & Pickup Poll Corrector) with their conversions of 12 national/regional polls conducted Sept 15-30 2008.  The final "Aug/2008" outliers were based on 3 models (Hutter, Morrow, Kay) with their Riding Conversions of 8 national/regional polls conducted Aug 20 - Sept 2  2008.  The final "July/2008" outliers were based on 4 models (Hutter, Chan, Morrow, Robbins) with Riding Conversions based on canvassing & 3 national polls conducted July 13-31 2008.

26.4%

105 Liberal MPs

9.7%

42 Bloc Quebecois MPs

19.8%

28 NDP MPs

0.7% INDEP'T

1 Que MP & 1 NS MP

8.9%

0 Green MPs

100%  

308 MP House of Commons

At dissolution:  127-C, 95-L, 48-BQ, 30-NDP, 3-Indept's, 1-G & 4 Vacants

about us:  During the 2004 USA Presidential Election, Freddy Hutter was one of the few political analysts to predict a George Bush win.  TrendLines Research's 280 Electoral College Votes projection was the most accurate of all North American pollsters.  Similarly in the 2006 Canadian Federal Election, Freddy Hutter was the first political analyst to predict the Defeat of the Paul Martin Gov't.  On Nov 30th 2005, TrendLines Research commenced published projections of a Stephen Harper led Conservative Minority ... seven weeks before Election Day; and in spite of the fact that the Liberal Party was ahead in almost all polls from May to Christmas!

Our post-2006 projections are based on a blending of 17 Riding Projection Models by Dan Arnold, Nick Boragina (nixtuff), Milton Chan (Election Prediction Project), EKOS, Harry Hayfield (UK), Brendan Hodgson & Tonie Chaltas (Hill & Knowlton), Barry Kay (LISPOP), David MacDonald (NoDice), Greg Morrow (DemocraticSpace), Mark Pickup (Polling Observatory), Glen Robbins, Segma, anonymous Paul the Socialist (Paulitics), Werner Antweiler (UBC Election Stock Market ... plus our own applications of Werner Antweiler's Voter Migration Matrix (UBC), Brendan Hodgson's Election Predictor (Hill & Knowlton) & Mark Pickup' Poll Corrector  ... which are incorporated by several of the models.  Finally, we overlay our Long Term Momentum Indicator.

These studies are in turn based on Canvassing and/or published national/regional Public Opinion Poll data (with avg 3% margin of error).  Please note that fine tuning of the models sometimes affects older data entries on the chart.  Several chart values have been deleted for clarity.  The Election Day projection will incorporate other recognized models as Federal polling becomes more frequent.

The TrendLines Projection also incorporates some 2006 Models by academics and political analysts including Jordan O'Brien, Ipsos Reid & Allen Gregg.  In addition, Models by Andrew Heard, Alan Hall & EKOS were included in the 2004 studies.  All do stellar work for little recognition.  Scroll below for more info on methodology or higher resolution of the 2006 & 2004 Projections.  Only the Yukon Projection includes direct polling by TrendLines.

2008 Election Blog:

Breaking NEWS - Oct 14th 2008 10am PST:  Due to the surprise late nite release on Thanxgiving Day of two major polls and Canada's recent "last day surges" in sentiment, a "final" final conversion will be posted at Noon.   The cut-off for our SCOREBOARD has been extended to 11am PST and all new projections will be reflected...

Oct 13th 2008 6pm PST Update:  Neither Saturday's nor Sunday's polling has moved the 14-model Riding Projection Average.  Today's revisions of 9 Riding Projection models & 4 national poll updates produced a straight conversion yielding 132-C, 84-L, 52-BQ, 39-NDP & 1-Indie ... exactly the same for three days!  Based on past Federal Elections however, we deem these results as outliers that should be considered with caution.  TrendLines Research has greater confidence in the underlying trend as represented by our ultimate Election Day Long-Term Momentum Targets: 131 Conservatives, 105 Liberals, 42 BQ, 28 NDP & 2 Indep't MPs (Que & NS)

 

Oct 13th 2008:  The Election is tomorrow.  Albeit the 13-model Riding Projection Average (132) has virtually converged with our long term momentum Target for the Conservative Party (131 Seats), possible CPC Seats ranges from Pickup's 121 to EKOS's 152.  The Liberal range is 60-197.  NDP range is 33-50.  BQ range is 48-57.  Range for Green is 0-1.  Range for Indept's is 0-3.

Sunday's chart numbers reflect revisions of 10 Riding Projection models & 3 national poll updates.  Straight conversion of all early Oct surveys yields 132-C, 84-L, 52-BQ, 39-NDP & 1-Indie.  Based on past Federal Elections however, we deem these results as outliers that should be considered with caution.  TrendLines Research has greater confidence in the underlying trend as represented by our ultimate Election Day Long-Term Momentum Targets: 131 Conservatives, 105 Liberals, 42 BQ, 28 NDP & 2 Indep't MPs (Que & NS)

 

Oct 12th 2008:  With only 2 days to go, virtually all members of the 12-model Riding Projection Average have converged with our long term momentum Target for the Conservative Party ... 131 Seats.

Saturday's chart numbers reflect revisions of 5 Riding Projection models & 6 national poll updates.  Straight conversion of all early Oct surveys yields 132-C, 84-L, 52-BQ, 39-NDP & 1-Indie.  Based on past Federal Elections however, we deem these results as outliers that should be considered with caution.  TrendLines Research has greater confidence in the underlying trend as represented by our ultimate Election Day Long-Term Momentum Targets: 131 Conservatives, 105 Liberals, 42 BQ, 28 NDP & 2 Indep't MPs (Que & NS)

 

Oct 11th 2008:  Thursday's convergence of the 12-model Riding Projection Average with our long term momentum Target for the Conservative Party is holding ... with only 3 days to go.

Yesterday's chart numbers reflect revisions to 9 Riding Projection models & 4 national poll updates.  Straight conversion of all early Oct surveys yields 131-C, 86-L, 52-BQ, 38-NDP & 1-Indie.  Based on past Federal Elections however, we deem these results as outliers that should be considered with caution.  TrendLines Research has greater confidence in the underlying trend as represented by our ultimate Election Day Long-Term Momentum Targets: 131 Conservatives, 105 Liberals, 42 BQ, 28 NDP & 2 Indep't MPs (Que & NS)

 

Oct 10th 2008:  The electorate can go to the polls on Tuesday with the peace of mind that they now know exactly what Dion would have done different than Harper in the lead up to the American financial crisis.  Great timing, Stéphane!

Yesterday, the 12-model Riding Projection Average finally converged with our long term momentum Target for the Conservative Party ... with only four days to go.  The reversion to the mean is complete.

Wednesday's chart numbers reflect revisions to 9 Riding Projection models & 3 national poll updates.  Straight conversion of all early Oct surveys yields 131-C, 87-L, 51-BQ, 38-NDP & 1-Indie.  Based on past Federal Elections however, we deem these results as outliers that should be considered with caution.  TrendLines Research has greater confidence in the underlying trend as represented by our ultimate Election Day Long-Term Momentum Targets: 131 Conservatives, 105 Liberals, 42 BQ, 28 NDP & 2 Indep't MPs (Que & NS)

 

Oct 9th 2008:  From the start, it was obvious that the Conservatives would fail to gain a Majority.  This presented an opportunity for the Opposition to unite on Oct 15th and form a Coalition.  But instead of the common front against PM Harper that reached apex during the Debate, the heat of the battle in recent days is causing Opposition Leaders to attack each other.  Toxic character and credibility assassinations aimed at each opponent is especially noteworthy. 

Their literal common hatred for Harper has been cast aside as the realities of Election desperation in maximizing the Seat Count sets in.  Ad hominem assaults will long not be forgotten by the recipients;  to the extent that the chance of a sit-down conference between Dion, Duceppe & Layton to construct a Coalition Agreement is dropping faster than RIM share prices.

Stephen Harper doesn't know it but he may have dodged a bullet.  The fear of strategic voting has thrown the Opposition Leaders off their ultimate mission:  Unite the Left.  They will win some seemingly important battles next week ... but lose the war.

Uh, breaking news time:  CTV's Mike Duffy today finally gave up his long quest of seeing the NDP forming the Official Opposition.  He is now arranging interviews of PM Dion's transition team...

Over the past four weeks, the 11-model Riding Projection Average has been converging on our long term momentum Targets.  At 133 Seats, today's Avg is only 1 MP off our Conservative Party Target ... with only five days to go.  Obviously, we are elated at this development.

Wednesday's chart numbers reflect revisions to 8 Riding Projection models & 4 national poll updates.  Straight conversion of all late-Sept/early-Oct surveys yields 133-C, 86-L, 50-BQ, 38-NDP & 1-Indie.  Based on past Federal Elections however, we deem these results as outliers that should be considered with caution.  TrendLines Research has greater confidence in the underlying trend as represented by our ultimate Election Day Long-Term Momentum Targets: 132 Conservatives, 105 Liberals, 42 BQ, 28 NDP & a sole Indep't Que MP.

 

Oct 8th 2008:  We're back!  Sorry, burned up the server last nite.

Yesterday's platform release allows voters an updated differentiation of Canada's socialists, communists & the right wing.  Accolades to the Globe & Mail for their diligence in tracking the cost of this year's promises:  Liberals $55 Billion, NDP $52 Billion & Conservatives $8 Billion ... all over four years.

For four weeks the 11-model Riding Projection Average has been converging on our Targets.  At 135 Seats, it is today only 3 MP's off our Conservative Target ... with only six days to go.

Having a combined 172 - 175 MPs, it is certain that Coalition Talks are quietly under way among the transition teams of the 3 Opposition Parties.  Canada is headed for its first Coalition Gov't in almost 20 years when an Ontario Liberal-NDP Agreement thwarted the Tories.

And if u would rather be titillated by Julie Couillard's boobies than issues that face the land, please tune-in to CTV's Mike Duffy Live.

Tuesday's chart numbers reflect revisions to 7 Riding Projection models & 3 national poll updates.  Straight conversion of all late-Sept/early-Oct surveys yields 135-C, 83-L, 51-BQ, 38-NDP & 1-Indie.  Based on past Federal Elections however, we deem these results as outliers that should be considered with caution.  TrendLines Research has greater confidence in the underlying trend as represented by our ultimate Election Day Long-Term Momentum Targets: 132 Conservatives, 105 Liberals, 42 BQ, 28 NDP & a sole Indep't Que MP.

 

Oct 7th 2008:  Back on the day the Writ was dropped, PM Harper was buoyed by Avg Riding Projections pointing to 181 Conservative MPs.  That prospect has collapsed.  And all the while, TrendLines Research has been stalwart in maintaining a narrow ranged CPC Target of 130 to 136 potential Seats.  Today, except for  the Liberals, it is seen that the conventional Riding Projections and the Polls are finally converging within single digits of our Targets.

Having a combined 165 - 174 MPs, it is certain that Coalition Talks are in quietly under way among the transition teams of the 3 Opposition Parties.  Canada is headed for its first Coalition Gov't in almost 20 years when an Ontario Liberal-NDP Agreement thwarted the Tories.   

With only 7 days to go, Monday's chart numbers reflect revisions to 5 Riding Projection models & 3 national poll updates.  Straight conversion of all late-Sept/early-Oct surveys yields 142-C, 78-L, 50-BQ, 37-NDP & 1-Indie.  Based on past Federal Elections however, we deem these results as outliers that should be considered with caution.  TrendLines Research has greater confidence in the underlying trend as represented by our ultimate Election Day Long-Term Momentum Targets: 133 Conservatives, 104 Liberals, 42 BQ, 28 NDP & a sole Indep't Que MP.

 

Oct 6th 2008:  With only a few coded phrases, PM Harper reinforced core support with his reminder that the Arts sector is overly pampered and funded.  He effectively reminded us that the avg annual earnings for Cndn "artists" is $12k.  Most make CDs that don't sell, movies that are junk & books that gather dust on store shelves.  The stark reason:  their products suck!  As always, they consoled each other with undeserved mutual admiration ... and went on the attack ... but got very little sympathy from joe six-pack & hockey moms.

In Mike Duffy's weekend absence, Jane Taber & Craig Oliver shouldered the flag in CTV's crusade to promote the NDP as the imminent new Official Opposition.  Discussion of election issues fell victim to CTV's ongoing titillation with tabloid gotcha's.  Instead of reading Party platforms, CTV staff was preoccupied with Google again ... this time excerpts associated with pillow-talk revelations out of Quebec.  Once a fortress of stalwart, thoughtful journalism, CTV's 2008 election coverage continues to be a national embarrassment going into the campaign's final week.

With only 8 days to go, the charts are beginning to reveal the "return to the mean" sentiment that we've been expecting.  Future results should incrementally home-in on the TrendLines Targets.

Sunday's chart numbers reflect revisions to 4 Riding Projection models & 3 national poll updates.  Straight conversion of all late-Sept/early-Oct surveys yields 146-C, 76-L, 49-BQ, 36-NDP & 1-Indie.  Based on past Federal Elections however, we deem these results as outliers that should be considered with caution.  TrendLines Research has greater confidence in the underlying trend as represented by our ultimate Election Day Long-Term Momentum Targets: 133 Conservatives, 104 Liberals, 42 BQ, 28 NDP & a sole Indep't Que MP.

 

Oct 5th 2008:  With only 9 days to go,  there seems to be minimal immediate effect on sentiment revealed after two nites of post-Debate polling.

Saturday's chart numbers reflect revisions to 6 Riding Projection models & 3 national poll updates.  Straight conversion of all late-Sept/early-Oct surveys yields 148-C, 74-L, 48-BQ, 37-NDP & 1-I.  Based on past Federal Elections however, we deem these results as outliers that should be considered with caution.  TrendLines Research has greater confidence in the underlying trend as represented by our ultimate Election Day Long-Term Momentum Targets: 134 Conservatives, 104 Liberals, 41 BQ, 28 NDP & a sole Indep't Que MP.

 

Oct 4th 2008:  With only 10 days to go, we eagerly await early ramifications of the 2 Leaders Debates.

Friday's chart numbers reflect revisions to 4 Riding Projection models & 3 national poll updates.  Straight conversion of all late/Sept - early/Oct surveys yields 149-C, 74-L, 48-BQ, 36-NDP & 1-I.  Based on past Federal Elections however, we deem these results as outliers that should be considered with caution.  TrendLines Research has greater confidence in the underlying trend as represented by our ultimate Election Day Long-Term Momentum Targets: 134 Conservatives, 104 Liberals, 41 BQ, 28 NDP & a sole Indep't Que MP.

 

Oct 3rd 2008:  With only 11 days to go, jockeying has paused while voters digest the 2 Leaders Debates.

Thursday's chart numbers reflect revisions to 4 Riding Projection models & 5 national poll updates.  Straight conversion of all late/Sept - early/Oct surveys yields 149-C, 74-L, 47-BQ, 37-NDP & 1-I.  Based on past Federal Elections however, we deem these results as outliers that should be considered with caution.  TrendLines Research has greater confidence in the underlying trend as represented by our ultimate Election Day Long-Term Momentum Targets: 134 Conservatives, 104 Liberals, 41 BQ, 28 NDP & a sole Indep't Que MP.

 

Oct 2nd 2008:  With only 12 days to go, the hemorrhaging seems to have taken a pause as the two nites of Leaders Debates are upon us.  Congrat's to Democracy Watch on taking up our Aug 30th proposal for injunctive action.  They are headed to Federal Court to challenge PM Harper's illegal Election Writ; specifically its failure to be preceded by a Confidence vote in the HofC.  It is unlikely that the Election will be set aside, but in a measure of just retribution, it is very probable (as we proposed on Sept 1st) that the combined Opposition Parties will approach the Governor General to express their lack of Confidence in another Conservative Minority and will propose that they be allowed form a Gov't Coalition.  If she balks, the action will be repeated after the first Confidence vote upon recall of Parliament at which time she will have no alternative but to oblige.  We are humbled to see that the Coalition issue was added to the Leaders Debate.

Wednesday's chart numbers reflect revisions to 5 Riding Projection models & 3 national poll updates.  Straight conversion of all late September surveys yields 150-C, 74-L, 47-BQ, 36-NDP & 1-I.  Based on past Federal Elections however, we deem these results as outliers that should be considered with caution.  TrendLines Research has greater confidence in the underlying trend as represented by our ultimate Election Day Long-Term Momentum Targets: 134 Conservatives, 104 Liberals, 41 BQ, 28 NDP & a sole Indep't Que MP.

 

Oct 1st 2008:  With only 13 days to go, it is seen that the NDP & Bloc have gained 7 potential Ridings each at the expense of the Liberal Party.  It is with much pain that again yesterday we watched CTV's Mike Duffy pee himself over Harper's plagiarism when in Opposition for the Alliance Part almost six years ago.  We have yet to see CTV's analysis of the Liberal & NDP Platforms.  Frankly, the Network's election coverage is an embarrassment.

Tuesday's chart numbers reflect revisions to 4 Riding Projection models & 3 national poll updates.  Straight conversion of all late September surveys yields 150-C, 72-L, 47-BQ, 38-NDP & 1-I.  Based on past Federal Elections however, we deem these results as outliers that should be considered with caution.  TrendLines Research has greater confidence in the underlying trend as represented by our ultimate Election Day Long-Term Momentum Targets: 131 Conservatives, 109 Liberals, 41 BQ, 26 NDP & a sole Indep't Que MP.

 

Sept 30th 2008:  With 14 days to go, the NDP & Bloc continue to reap benefit of the Liberal hemorrhaging.

Monday's chart numbers reflect revisions to 3 Riding Projection models & 3 national poll updates.  Straight conversion of all late September surveys yields 152-C, 73-L, 45-BQ, 37-NDP & 1-I.  Based on past Federal Elections however, we deem these results as outliers that should be considered with caution.  TrendLines Research has greater confidence in the underlying trend as represented by our ultimate Election Day Long-Term Momentum Targets: 131 Conservatives, 110 Liberals, 40 BQ, 26 NDP & a sole Indep't Que MP.

 

Sept 29th 2008:  With 15 days to go, an emerging significant trend is developing of whereby Liberal softness is translating to fortune for the NDP, BQ & Conservatives.

Sunday's chart numbers reflect the introduction of a new model, based on stats from Mark Pickup (Polling Observatory, UK), revisions to 5 of the Riding Projection models & 2 rare weekend national poll updates.  Straight conversion of all late September surveys yields 152-C, 74-L, 45-BQ, 36-NDP & 1-I.  Based on past Federal Elections however, we deem these results as outliers that should be considered with caution.  TrendLines Research has greater confidence in the underlying trend as represented by our ultimate Election Day Long-Term Momentum Targets: 131 Conservatives, 110 Liberals, 40 BQ, 26 NDP & a sole Indep't Que MP.

 

Sept 28th 2008:  With 16 days to go, a relatively docile Campaign may be showing signs of life.  Over the last couple of days, the Liberal Party has shed 8 potential Ridings to the other three players.  This brings to 4 the number of MPs that the NDP has gained since Day 1.  They stand at 34.  Yet, CTV's Mike Duffy is almost peeing himself with glee in anticipation of their taking on the role of Official Opposition.

The Election Coverage by CTV & CBC thus far is an embarrassment to professional journalism.  Most of their air time is dedicated to chasing tabloid-style "gotchas" as they google the WWWeb on each candidate for skeletons.  What should not even be sidebars have become lead segments.  Neither network has challenged its audiences with refreshing enlightenment on the Green Shift, Youth Crime or Party Promises' Costing.  If its not titillating, it's not fit to view.  Perhaps they can shift gear or send in the B teams in the last two weeks for redemption.  But i digress ...

Saturday's chart numbers reflect revisions to 5 of the Riding Projection models & 5 rare weekend national poll updates.  Straight conversion of all late September surveys yields 152-C, 76-L, 45-BQ, 34-NDP & 1-I.  Based on past Federal Elections however, we deem these results as outliers that should be considered with caution.  TrendLines Research has greater confidence in the underlying trend as represented by our ultimate Election Day Long-Term Momentum Targets: 131 Conservatives, 111 Liberals, 40 BQ, 25 NDP & a sole Indep't Que MP.

 

Sept 27th 2008:  With 17 days to go, the five Parties have settled into rather stable plateaus.  CTV's Mike Duffy yesterday declared the NDP as the Official Opposition.  Our blog reveals this idea is a rebirth of Media punditry back on Sept 12th.  It was wrong then and it is more so wishful thinking today.  It is unfortunate that the Media has spent the campaign thus far scanning the WWWeb for candidates' embarrassing past instead of discussing real issues.  Most all of the mainstream media have deteriorated to tabloid journalism this Autumn.  Must be hard to get good help, eh... 

Friday's chart numbers reflect revisions to 5 of the Riding Projection models & 3 national poll updates.  Straight conversion of all mid Sept surveys yields 150-C, 81-L, 44-BQ, 32-NDP & 1-I.  Based on past Federal Elections however, we deem these results as outliers that should be considered with caution.  TrendLines Research has greater confidence in the underlying trend as represented by our ultimate Election Day Long-Term Momentum Targets: 131 Conservatives, 111 Liberals, 40 BQ, 25 NDP & a sole Indep't Que MP.

 

Sept 26th 2008:  With 18 days to go, the five Parties have been in virtual plateau for over a week.  We expect some slippage by the Conservatives & NDP by Election Day ... in favour of the Liberals. 

Thursday's chart figures reflect revisions to 3 of the Riding Projection models & 3 national poll updates.  Straight conversion of all mid Sept surveys yields 150-C, 84-L, 42-BQ, 31-NDP & 1-I.  Based on past Federal Elections however, we deem these results as outliers to be considered with caution.  TrendLines Research has greater confidence in the underlying trend as represented by our ultimate Election Day Long-Term Momentum Targets: 131 Conservatives, 111 Liberals, 40 BQ, 25 NDP & a sole Indep't Que MP.

 

Sept 25th 2008:  With 19 days to go, there appears to be no issue that is gaining traction for any Party.  All five are in plateau.  If the TrendLines Targets have merit, watch for some slippage by the Conservatives & NDP by Election Day.

Wednesday's chart figures reflect revisions to 2 of the Riding Projection models & 3 national poll updates.  Straight conversion of all mid Sept surveys yields 150-C, 85-L, 41-BQ, 31-NDP & 1-I.  However, these outlier results should be considered with caution.  TrendLines Research has more confidence in the underlying trend as represented by our ultimate Election Day Long-Term Momentum Targets: 131 Conservatives, 112 Liberals, 39 BQ, 25 NDP & a sole Indep't Que MP.

 

Sept 24th 2008:  With 20 days to go, the absence of introduction of significantly innovative planks by any Party has created 4 plateaus of sentiment.  If the TrendLines Targets have merit, watch for some slippage by the Conservatives & NDP by Election Day. 

Tuesday's chart figures reflect revisions to 4 of the Riding Projection models & 3 national poll updates.  Straight conversion of all mid Sept surveys yields 150-C, 86-L, 40-BQ, 31-NDP & 1-I.  However, these outlier results should be considered with caution.  TrendLines Research has more confidence in the underlying trend as represented by our ultimate Election Day Long-Term Momentum Targets: 131 Conservatives, 112 Liberals, 39 BQ, 25 NDP & a sole Indep't Que MP.

 

Sept 23rd 2008:  With 21 days to go, yesterday saw a Conservative proposed clamp down on violent Young Offenders & the Release of the Liberal numbers.  It's fuzzy math asks voters to trust them to chop $12 Billion off expenditures to prevent a Deficit.  Yeah, right.

Monday's chart figures reflect revisions to 2 of the Riding Projection models & updates to 3 national polls.

Straight conversion of all mid Sept surveys yields 150-C, 87-L, 40-BQ, 30-NDP & 1-I.  However, these outlier results should be considered with caution.  TrendLines Research has more confidence in the underlying trend as represented by our Election Day Long-Term Momentum Targets: 131 Conservatives, 112 Liberals, 39 BQ, 25 NDP & a sole Indep't Que MP

 

Sept 22nd 2008:  Lotsa weekend activity with 22 days to go.  If u want your Province to ban handguns, it was a good day!  Sunday's figures reflect revisions to 2 of the Riding Projection models, the introduction of UBC's Election Stock Market model & the updating of 3 national polls.

Straight conversion of all mid Sept surveys yields 151-C, 85-L, 40-BQ, 31-NDP & 1-I.  However, these outlier results should be considered with caution.  TrendLines Research has more confidence in the underlying trend as represented by our Election Day Long-Term Momentum Targets: 131 Conservatives, 112 Liberals, 39 BQ, 25 NDP & a sole Indep't Que MP.

 

Sept 21st 2008:  Surveys continue thru the weekend!  Saturday's figures reflect revisions to 3 of the Riding Projection models & the updating of 3 national polls.

Straight conversion of all mid Sept surveys yields 151-C, 86-L, 41-BQ, 29-NDP & 1-I.  However, these results are considered as outliers.  TrendLines Research has more confidence in the underlying trend as represented by our Election Day Long-Term Momentum Targets: 131 Conservatives, 112 Liberals, 39 BQ, 25 NDP & a sole Indep't Que MP.

 

Sept 20th 2008:  Busy data day!  Friday's figures reflect revisions to 6 of the Riding Projection models & updates of 3 national polls.

Straight conversion of recent Sept surveys yields 149-C, 88-L, 41-BQ, 29-NDP & 1-I.  These results are considered as outliers.  TrendLines Research has more confidence in the underlying trend as represented by our Election Day Long-Term Momentum Targets: 131 Conservatives, 112 Liberals, 39 BQ, 25 NDP & a sole Indep't Que MP.

 

Sept 19th 2008:  If u like jokes that attack Opposition critics & drunk Aboriginals, yesterday was a good day...

Thursday's figures reflect 1 Riding Projection model revision & 3 national poll updates.

Straight conversion of recent Sept surveys yields 150-C, 85-L, 42-BQ, 30-NDP & 1-I.  TrendLines Research views these results as outliers and more confidence in the underlying trend as represented by our Election Day Long-Term Momentum Targets: 131 Conservatives, 111 Liberals, 40 BQ, 25 NDP & a sole Indep't Que MP.

 

Sept 18th 2008:  If u want the Gov't to get into the babysitting business or need a student loan, yesterday was a good day.

Wednesday's figures reflect 5 projection model updates & revisions to 4 national polls.

While straight conversion of recent Sept surveys yields 150-C, 85-L, 42-BQ, 30-NDP & 1-I outliers, our confidence lies with the Election Day Long-Term Momentum Targets: 131 Conservatives, 111 Liberals, 40 BQ, 25 NDP & a sole Indep't Que MP.

 

Sept 17th 2008:  If u are buying your first home or use lotsa prescription drugs, yesterday was a good day.

Tuesday's figures reflect 4 projection model updates ... as influenced by a new campaign national poll (Robbins) and updates of 3 others.

While straight conversion of recent Sept surveys yields 144-C, 89-L, 43-BQ, 31-NDP & 1-I outliers, our confidence lies with the Election Day Long-Term Momentum Targets: 130 Conservatives, 112 Liberals, 40 BQ, 25 NDP & a sole Indep't Que MP.

 

Sept 16th 2008:  If u are pregnant & an entrepreneur, yesterday was a good day.

Monday's figures introduce the Nick Boragina model in the average; along with five updates ... based mostly on five updated polls over the weekend.

While straight conversion of recent Sept surveys yields 145-C, 88-L, 43-BQ, 31-NDP & 1-I outliers, our confidence lies with the Election Day Long-Term Momentum Targets: 130 Conservatives, 112 Liberals, 40 BQ, 25 NDP & a sole Indep't Que MP.

 

Sept 15th 2008:  It would seem by the trends revealed in our "daily" chart that sentiment entrenchment is rather evident.  Distortion via any rogue polling is being lost in the abundance of surveys and seat conversion models.

Yesterday's figures were influenced by Ipsos Reid first campaign poll and updates of two others; along with one model update.

While straight 9-model conversion of the Sept surveys yields 150-C, 86-L, 40-BQ, 31-NDP & 1-I outliers, our confidence lies with the Election Day Long-Term Momentum Targets: 131 Conservatives, 112 Liberals, 39 BQ, 25 NDP & a sole Indep't Que MP.

 

Sept 14th 2008:  Seems hard to believe that it has only been a week since the Writ was dropped last Sunday.  Whereas the NDP are mired at 30 potential seats, the Conservative's 30-seat loss is divided up between the Liberals & Bloc.  1 Indep't on the way to re-election.  No Greens in sight.  Dion's fortunes are all the more amazing when one considers that the air waves had sported only Harper's ads since late August.

Yesterday, we added the first EKOS seat projection of the campaign and one model was updated.

While straight 9-model conversion of the Sept surveys yields 151-C, 85-L, 41-BQ, 30-NDP & 1-I outliers, our confidence lies with the Election Day Long-Term Momentum Targets: 131 Conservatives, 111 Liberals, 40 BQ, 25 NDP & a sole Indep't Que MP.

 

Sept 13th 2008:  Much of the Media continues to hype the prospect of an NDP Official Opposition despite Layton's promising $10-Billion to NFLD and his $8-Bil corp tax increase proposal to pay for a make-work program in Ontario.  Again, this promotion is neither borne out in the polls nor the seat projections.  Harper also had a brain fart introducing National Unity (code for Quebec Separation) as the ultimate cost of electing the Liberal Party.

Yesterday saw the introduction of 2 more Federal models (Paul Socialist of Ottawa/Gatineau & Dan Arnold of Calgary) and updates of three polls.  Rising fortunes for the Bloc have tentatively displaced the Conservatives from Majority territory.

While straight conversion of the Sept surveys yields 152-C, 84-L, 42-BQ, 29-NDP & 1-I outliers, our confidence lies with the Election Day Long-Term Momentum Targets: 131 Conservatives, 111 Liberals, 40 BQ, 25 NDP & a sole Indep't Que MP.

 

Sept 12th 2008:  Yesterday, the Media was incredibly giddy with the prospect that the NDP will form the loyal Opposition.  One problem:  this scenario is not borne out in either the polls or the seat projections.  It is solely a creature of the pundits...  

Thursday saw 4 model updates, including 2 conversions of Sept's 5th national poll (Nanos), revealing some Liberal upside at NDP expense.

While straight conversion of the Sept surveys yields 157-C, 84-L, 38-BQ, 28-NDP & 1-I outliers, our confidence lies in the Election Day Long-Term Momentum Targets: 132 Conservatives, 112 Liberals, 39 BQ, 24 NDP & a sole Indep't Que MP.

 

Sept 11th 2008:  Highlights of the day are the invitation of Liz May to the Leaders' Debates & Harper's definitive withdrawal of Afghan troops in 2011.

Today, two model updates & conversion of Sept's 4th national poll (Angus Reid ... plus an EKOS update) continue to dampen the Conservative tally to 157 MPs from 160 yesterday.  To aid the tracking of Party movement during the Campaign, we're augmenting our monthly chart with a higher resolution daily version.

While straight conversion of the Sept surveys yields 157-C, 81-L, 38-BQ, 31-NDP & 1-I outliers, our confidence lies in the Election Day Long-Term Momentum Targets: 132 Conservatives, 111 Liberals, 39 BQ, 25 NDP & a sole Indep't MP (Andre Arthur) in Quebec.

 

Sept 10th 2008:  First planks are being rolled out with the Liberals doubling the Child Care Benefit for low income families & the Conservatives promise to reduce diesel fuel by 2-cents/litre.  Added to the Carbon Tax, the electorate are getting some real wedge issues to help them with Vote decisions ... other than the obvious Leadership factor.

It is becoming apparent that the Conservative Party will not be fielding a Candidate in Andre Arthur's Quebec Riding of Portneuf - Jacques Cartier.  The sole elected Indep't MP of 2006, he is a popular talk radio host who often votes with the Gov't.  It is probable that the Green's new West Vancouver - Sunshine Coast Riding in BC will revert back to Blue ... it's the former John Reynolds seat.  Justin Trudeau is embattled in his attempt to wrestle the BQ Riding of Papineau.

Today, four model updates and conversion of Sept's third national poll (Harris Decima) moderate further the average Conservative tally to 160 MPs from 171 yesterday.

While straight conversion of the Sept surveys yields 160-C, 81-L, 32-BQ, 30-NDP & 1-I outliers, our confidence lies in the Election Day Targets: 133 Conservatives, 111 Liberals, 38 BQ, 25 NDP & a sole Indep't MP (Andre Arthur) in Quebec.

 

Sept 9th 2008:  Outrage continues to pan the country on the genuine unfairness of Liz May being shut out of the Leaders' Debates.  Today, a fourth model (Morrow) conversion of September's first two national polls (Segma & EKOS) dampens the Avg Conservative tally to 171 (from 181) MPs.

While straight conversion of the Sept surveys yields 171-C/74-L/32-BQ/30-NDP/1-I outliers, our Targets for Election Day are: 135 Conservatives, 110 Liberals, 37 BQ, 25 NDP & a sole Indep't MP (Andre Arthur) in Quebec.  Future polling may indicate if the Greens can retain their new BC Riding.

 

Sept 8th 2008:  Nobody laying out new planks today, but we do have news that Liz May has not been invited to the Leaders' Debate.  Sad Day.  And, we have conversion of September's second national poll (Segma & EKOS). 

While straight conversion of the Sept surveys yields 181/67/29/30/1 outliers, TrendLines Research's targets for Election Day are 136 Conservatives, 109 Liberals, 37 BQ, 25 NDP & a sole Indie MP in Quebec.  Future polling may indicate if the Greens can retain their new BC Riding.

 

Sept 7th 2008:  The Race is on!  And we begin the Campaign with conversion of September's first national poll (EKOS).  Our projection now includes an 8th model ... its analysis by Harry Hayfield of the UK.

Remembering that the Liberal Party drew 27 more MPs than predicted in 2004 & 29 higher in 2006, we've amended our methodology to weight the underlying trend rather than our customary strict blend of the universe models.  In short, keep your eye on the dotted lines, eh.

Thus, while straight conversion of the September survey yields 162/76/29/39/2 outliers, TrendLines Research's targets for Election Day are 132 Conservatives, 110 Liberals, 38 BQ, 27 NDP & a sole Indie MP in Quebec.  Future polling will determine whether the Greens can retain their new BC Riding.

TrendLines had been projecting a Conservative Majority via its 2009 Target since April 2007.  Analysis of December 2007 numbers and the consequent abrupt changeover to probable Liberal "Majority" territory reflected a sea change in voter sentiment.  Since mid March 2008 however, it appears that a Liberal "Minority" would be the prospect on any Election after March 2009.  While we are troubled by the mandate being cut short illegally by PM Harper, we grant that his doing so will likely guarantee another Conservative win in October 2008.

 

Sept 4th 2008:  Just when we thought we had wrapped the August tally, Environics surprised us with an unprecedented 7th national poll.  These surveys encompassed the last 11 days of August.

Straight conversion of the lot indicates that a late-Summer Election may have yielded a slim Conservative Minority with 124 MPs This result almost mirrors our current Federal model, which has its confidence on the trend lines ... not these outlier conversions.

Using this "trend" methodology, a Liberal Party Minority is not forecast 'til after March 2009 The model projects that Stéphane Dion will attain an ultimate 134 MPs if he waits out the Harper mandate.

In the event of an October 2009 Election, the Conservatives would retain 120 Ridings Long term trends that surfaced in our May 2007 charts continue to indicate major losses ahead for the BQ & NDP.  The BQ is poised to garner a lowly 34 Ridings, while the NDP would attain only 19 MPs.  A sole Quebec Indie takes the only remaining Seat.  Future polling will determine whether the Greens can retain their new BC Riding.

It would seem to be in the NDP/BQ interest to "go early" from a "preservation" standpoint.  This may explain their disruptive behaviour in the House of Commons thru 2007/2008.

TrendLines had been projecting a Conservative Majority via its 2009 Target since April 2007.  Analysis of December 2007 numbers and the consequent abrupt changeover to probable Liberal "Majority" territory reflected a sea change in voter sentiment.  Since mid March 2008 however, it appears that a Liberal "Minority" is the prospect:


Sept 2nd 2008:  It is very probable that an Injunction will be sought to prevent the Prime Minister taking the opportunistic step of calling  an Election in the absence of a failed Confidence Vote in the House of Commons.  It was his own legislation that was to prevent ruling Govt's from calling Elections "on a whim".

Should Stephen Harper call an Election under these distasteful circumstances, it is probable that the Opposition have an elaborate trap in store ... hence the feint furor.  In the event of a Minority situation in October, the Opposition Parties will likely unite in a formal Coalition and request the Governor General to award them Governance.  If she resists, an immediate non-Confidence Vote upon the resumption of Parliament would ensue and resolve this nasty episode.  Only a Majority will save the Conservatives from losing governance ... and that prospect is doubtful.

An unprecedented 6 national polls were completed last week!!  Straight conversion of them indicates that a late-Summer Election may have yielded a slim Liberal Minority with 121 MPs.

But it is important to watch the momentum trend lines instead.  Assuming Injunctive action fails to thwart the heady rhetoric of this week's Writ, an Autumn Election would yield results closer to the current trend lines rather than apparent outlier poll conversions.  This would indicate that the Conservatives would win by a mere handful of Seats.

Unfortunately for Mr Dion, due to the experiences of the last three Elections, the TrendLines model places its confidence in the long term momentum targets rather than outlier conversions of the polls.  Using this "trend" methodology, a Liberal Party Minority is not forecast until after January 2009 The model continues to project that Stéphane Dion will attain an ultimate Minority with 136 MPs if he waits out the Harper mandate.

In the event of an October 2009 Election, the Conservatives would retain 118 Ridings Long term trends that surfaced in our May 2007 charts continue to indicate major losses ahead for the BQ & NDP.  The BQ is poised to garner a lowly 35 Ridings, while the NDP would attain only 18 MPs.  A sole Quebec Indie takes the only remaining Seat.  Future polling will determine whether the Greens can retain their new BC Riding.

It would seem to be in the NDP/BQ interest to "go early" from a "preservation" standpoint.  This may explain their disruptive behaviour in the House of Commons thru 2007/2008.

 

Sept 1st 2008:  It is probable that an Injunction will be sought to prevent the Prime Minister taking the opportunistic step of calling  an Election in the absence of a failed Confidence Vote in the House of Commons.  Should Stephen Harper call an Election under these distasteful circumstances, it is probable that in the event of a Minority situation in October, the Opposition Parties will unite in a formal Coalition and request the Governor General to award them Governance.  If she resists, an immediate non-Confidence Vote upon the resumption of Parliament would ensue and resolve this nasty episode.

An unprecedented 5 national polls were completed last week!!  Straight conversion of them indicates that a late-Summer Election may have yielded a significant Liberal Minority with 125 MPs.

Assuming Injunctive action fails to thwart the heady rhetoric of this week's Writ, an Autumn Election would yield results closer to the current trend lines rather than apparent outlier poll conversions.  This would indicate that the Conservatives would win by a mere handful of Seats.

Unfortunately for Mr Dion, due to the experiences of the last three Elections, the TrendLines model places its confidence in the long term momentum targets rather than outlier conversions of the polls.  Using this "trend" methodology, a Liberal Party Minority is not forecast until after December 2008 The model continues to project that Stéphane Dion will attain an ultimate Minority with 138 MPs if he waits out the Harper mandate.

In the event of an October 2009 Election, the Conservatives would retain 116 Ridings Long term trends that surfaced in our May 2007 charts continue to indicate major losses ahead for the BQ & NDP.  The BQ is poised to garner a lowly 35 Ridings, while the NDP would attain only 18 MPs.  A sole Quebec Indie takes the only remaining Seat.  Future polling will determine whether the Greens can retain their new BC Riding.

It would seem to be in the NDP/BQ interest to "go early" from a "preservation" standpoint.  This may explain their disruptive behaviour in the House of Commons thru 2007/2008.

 

Aug 30th 2008:  Straight conversion of this week's 3 polls (Ipsos Reid, Nanos & Harris Decima), indicates that a late-Summer Election may have yielded a strong Liberal Minority with 137 MPs.

After Conservatives touting for many months that their legislative agenda has easily passed due to "sitting on their hands" by the Official Opposition, it is despicable for PM Harper to now claim utter dysfunction and threaten to issue a Writ next week.  No doubt a Court challenge will ensue by interests that desire to preserve the integrity of Harper's fixed date legislation.  Harper's planned action would set a dangerous precedent and the Governor General should take heed in weighing the PM's request.

Canadians have a history of penalizing such opportunistic tactics and for this reason alone, Harper should be wary...

The TrendLines model places its confidence on the long term momentum target rather than outlier conversions of the polls.  Using this "trend" methodology, a Liberal Party Minority is forecast on any Election after November 2008 It continues to project that Stéphane Dion will gain a substantial Minority (143 MPs) if he waits out the Harper mandate.

If an October 2009 Election, the Conservatives should retain 115 Ridings Long term trends that surfaced in our May 2007 charts continue to indicate major losses ahead for the BQ & NDP.  The BQ is poised to garner a lowly 31 Ridings, while the NDP would attain only 18 MPs.  A sole Quebec Indie takes the only remaining Seat.  Future polling will determine whether the Greens can retain their new BC Riding.

It would seem to be in the NDP/BQ interest to "go early" from a "preservation" standpoint.  This may explain their disruptive behaviour in the House of Commons thru 2007/2008.

Assuming Injunctive action fails to thwart the heady rhetoric of an October Election, it is our position that an Autumn Election would yield results closer to the current trend lines rather than apparent outlier poll results.  This would indicate that the Conservatives would win by a mere handful of Seats.

Aug 29th 2008:  Conversion of two late August polls (Harris Decima & Nanos) indicate that a late-Summer Election may have yielded a strong Liberal Minority of 148 MPs.

The long term momentum continues to project that Stéphane Dion will gain a substantial Minority (146 MPs) if he waits out the Harper mandate.  Using this "trend" methodology, a Liberal Party Minority is forecast on any Election after November 2008.  Similarly, it is our position that an Election today would yield results closer to the current trend lines rather than apparent outlier poll results.  This would yield an extremely slim Conservative Minority should Harper flaunt his Fixed Election legislation and request the Governor-General to call a General Election rather than await the mandate limit or the prospect of a forced Election precipitated by a non-Confidence Vote in the HofC.

The Conservatives have touted for many months that their legislative agenda has easily passed due to "sitting on their hands" by the Official Opposition.  It is despicable for PM Harper to now claim utter dysfunction and use a technicality to issue a Writ.  Canadians have a history of penalizing such opportunistic tactics and for this reason alone the PM should take heed...

Aug 19th 2008:  Two August polls (Harris Decima & Ipsos Reid) and related riding projection conversions indicate that a mid-Summer Election would have yielded a slim Liberal Minority of 132 MPs.

The long term momentum continues to project that Stéphane Dion will gain a substantial Minority (141 MPs) if he waits out the Harper mandate.  By the trend methodology, a Liberal Party Minority is forecast on any Election after January 2009.  Similarly, it is our position that an Election today would yield results closer to the current trend line rather than apparent outlier poll results.

Aug 14th 2008:  The first August poll (Harris Decima) and its related riding projection conversion indicates that a mid-Summer Election would have yielded an apparent strong (143 MPs) Liberal Minority.

The long term momentum continues to project that Stéphane Dion will gain a substantial Minority (145 MPs) if he waits out the Harper mandate.  By the trend methodology, a Liberal Party Minority win is forecast on any Election after October 2008.  Similarly, an Election today would yield results closer to the trend line rather than outlier poll results.

July 14th 2008:  Having finally received a July poll (Ipsos Reid), canvassing & riding projection conversion indicates that a late Spring Election would have delivered a reduced (121 MPs) Conservative Minority.

However, the long term momentum continues to project that Stéphane Dion would gain a substantial Minority (141 MPs) if he waits out the Harper mandate.  A Liberal Party Minority win is projected on any Election after December 2008.

June 21st 2008:  As the HofC takes its Summer Break, canvassing & conversion of the June nat'l polls indicate that a late Spring Election would have delivered a slim (124) Conservative Minority.

However, the long term momentum continues to project that Stéphane Dion would gain a substantial Minority (141) if he waits out the Harper mandate.  A Liberal Party Minority win is projected on any Election after January 2009.

June 14th 2008:  Conversion of a third June survey (Strategic Counsel) indicates that a late Spring Election would deliver a slim (125) Liberal Minority.

Meanwhile, the long term momentum continues to project that Stéphane Dion & the Liberal Party would gain a substantial Minority (147) if they wait out the Harper mandate.  A Liberal Party Minority win is projected on any Election after November 2008.

June 9th 2008:  The Liberal Party has gained 2 "potential" MPs/month since December; and are poised to continue to augment their tally (greater than 1/month pace) thru the next six seasons.  Conversion of early June's Harris Decima & Ipsos Reid surveys reveals that a late Spring Election would deliver a slim (124) Liberal Minority.

Meanwhile, the long term momentum continues to indicate that Stéphane Dion & the Liberal Party would gain a substantial Minority (147) if they wait out the Harper mandate.  A Liberal Party Minority win is projected on any Election after November 2008.

June 8th 2008:  The first June poll confirms that the ever-so-brief Liberal lead of early May has evaporated.  Two projection models have agreement that voters dismissed the touted HofC soap opera episode in a matter of days.  This will dash the endeavour of Dion's shadow Cabinet to engineer a snap Election this week.  Conversion of this Ipsos Reid survey reveals that a late Spring Election would deliver a slim (124) Conservative Minority.

Meanwhile however, the long term momentum continues to indicate that Stéphane Dion & the Liberal Party would gain a substantial Minority (142) if they wait out the Harper mandate.  A Liberal Party Minority win is projected on any Election after January 2009.

June 2nd 2008:  As suggested, the Dion lead was short-lived.  Perhaps voters are indicating they desire issues of substance debated ... not the current daytime soap opera.  Conversion of the four May national polls reveals that a Spring Election would deliver a slim (119) Conservative Minority.

Meanwhile, the long term momentum continues to indicate that Stéphane Dion & the Liberal Party would gain a substantial Minority (147) if they wait out the Harper mandate.  A Liberal Party Minority win is projected on any Election after January 2009.  Long term trends that surfaced in our May 2007 charts continue to indicate major losses ahead for the BQ & NDP.  The BQ is poised to garner a lowly 31 Ridings, while the NDP would hold only 12 MP's.  A sole Quebec Indie takes the only remaining Seat.  It would seem to be in the NDP/BQ interest to "go early" from a "preservation" standpoint.  This may explain their disruptive behaviour in the House of Commons thru 2008.

May 14th 2008:  Dion's Liberals have regained the "Today" lead this month:  the 5th time in 27 TrendLines 2008 Poli-Poll updates.  But after this week's antics in Question Period, it will surely be short-lived!  Conversion of the first two May national polls reveals that a Spring Election would deliver a slim (125) Liberal Minority.  Meanwhile, the long term momentum continues to indicate that Stéphane Dion would gain a near Majority (152) if he waits out the Harper mandate.  A Liberal Party Minority win is projected on any Election after October 2008.

From January 5 to March 6, we were projecting a Liberal Majority for the mandated 2009 Election.  Since that period, the Party has been limited to Minority forecasts.  This week on the floor of the House of Commons, the Liberals pleaded that the Gov't use Canadian military force to implement Regime Change in Burma.  Last month they wanted to raise gasoline taxes 10¢/litre to save the world from Climate Change.  The month before that Dion et al wanted to put the GST back to 7%.  It seems apparent that until Mr Dion & company commit to a new policy oriented Red Book instead of on-the-fly trial balloons, the desired Majority shall elude them...

May 12th 2008:  Dion's Liberals have regained the "Today" lead:  the 4th time in 26 TrendLines 2008 Poli-Poll updates.  But after today's antics in Question Period, it will surely be short-lived!  Conversion of the first May national poll reveals that a Spring Election would deliver a slim (132) Liberal Minority.  Meanwhile, the long term momentum continues to indicate that Stéphane Dion would gain a near Majority (153) if he waits out the Harper mandate.  A Liberal Party Minority win is projected on any Election after September 2008.

From January 5 to March 6, we were projecting a Liberal Majority for the mandated 2009 Election.  Since that period, the Party has been limited to Minority forecasts.  Today on the floor of the House of Commons, the Liberals pleaded that the Gov't use Canadian military force to implement Regime Change in Burma.  Last month they wanted to raise gasoline taxes 10¢/litre to save the world from Climate Change.  The month before that Dion et al wanted to put the GST back to 7%.  It seems apparent that until Mr Dion & company commit to a new policy oriented Red Book instead of on-the-fly trial balloons, that Majority shall elude them...

May 3rd 2008:  Conversion of canvassing and five April national polls confirm that a Spring Election would deliver a reduced (122) Conservative Minority.  Meanwhile, the long term momentum continues to indicate that Stéphane Dion would gain a substantial Liberal Minority (147) if he waits out the Harper mandate.  A Liberal Party Minority win is projected on any Election after February 2009.

April 18th 2008:  Conversion of canvassing and four April national polls confirm that a Spring Election would deliver a reduced Conservative Minority.  Meanwhile, the long term momentum continues to indicate that Stéphane Dion would gain a substantial Liberal Minority (147) if he waits out the Harper mandate.  A Liberal Party Minority win is projected on any Election after January 2009.

April 13th 2008:  Conversion of Canvassing and three early April national polls confirm that a Spring Election would deliver a virtual tie.  Meanwhile, the long term momentum continues to indicate that Stéphane Dion would gain a substantial Liberal Minority (148) if he waits out the Harper mandate.  A Liberal Party Minority win is projected on any Election after December 2008.

April 10th 2008:  Canvassing and an early April national poll are indicating that a Spring Election would deliver a virtual tie.  Meanwhile, the long term momentum continues to indicate that Stéphane Dion would gain a near Liberal Majority (151) if he waits out the Harper mandate.  A Liberal Party Minority win is projected on any Election after December 2008.

April 4th 2008:  Early April canvassing confirms that House standings would not be significantly altered in a Spring Election.  The long term momentum continues to indicate that Stéphane Dion would gain a Liberal Minority (139) if he waits out the Harper mandate.  A Liberal Party Minority win is projected on any Election after June 2009.

April 1st 2008:  2-model analysis of the most recent 4 nat'l polls suggests that an Election this week would have produced a House of Commons that mirrors the present one!  No point of an Election.  The long term momentum continues to indicate that Stéphane Dion will win a substantial Liberal Minority (147) if he waits out the Harper mandate.  A Liberal Party Minority win is projected on any Election after March 2009.

March 27th 2008:  2-model analysis of the most recent 4 nat'l polls suggests that an Election this week would have produced a House of Commons that mirrors the present one!  No point of an Election.  The long term momentum continues to indicate that Stéphane Dion will win a substantial Liberal Minority (149) if he waits out the Harper mandate.  A Liberal Party Minority win is projected on any Election after March 2009.

March 23rd 2008:  Four polls and two models later, we see the potential for a House of Commons that mirrors the present composition.  No point of an Election.  The long term momentum continues to indicate that Stéphane Dion will win a substantial Liberal Minority if he waits out the Harper mandate.  A Liberal Party Minority (149) win is projected on any Election after March 2009.

March 16th 2008:  Three polls and two models later, the Conservatives cling to a slim lead, but the long term momentum continues to indicate that Stéphane Dion will win a Liberal near-Majority (151) if he waits out the Harper mandate.  A Liberal Party Minority win is projected on any Election after January 2009 & a "near" Majority by October 2009.

March 10th 2008:  Conversion of the first three March nat'l polls are indicating that the Conservatives are clinging to only a very slim lead:  116 to 115.  The long term momentum continues to indicate that Stéphane Dion will win a Liberal Majority (155) if he waits out the Harper mandate.  A Liberal Party Minority win is projected on any Election after October 2008 & a Majority after September 2009.

March 4th 2008:  Conversion of the first couple of March nat'l polls are indicating that the Liberals have regained the lead:  115 to 114.  The long term momentum continues to indicate that Stéphane Dion will win a Liberal Majority (155) if he waits out the Harper mandate.  A Liberal Party Minority win is projected on any Election after October 2008 & a Majority after September 2009.

Feb 27th 2008:  While it is clear today that the Budget will get a pass, the Liberal Party & many Canadians are troubled by the Conservatives unwillingness in Debate to commit to withdraw from "search & destroy" combat missions in Afghanistan.  The Liberal amendment is clear in its intent to provide a framework for a change in the mission that prohibits combat except when related to immediate security.  The Conservatives seem intent on continuing maneuvers with the USA, Britain & Netherlands after February 2009.  One of the Parties has to blink.  And this could precipitate the Election.  However, over the last 48 hours, the Liberals have stopped asking the Gov't for a definition of "rotation" ... implying that they no longer want to hear the answer...

The long term momentum continues to indicate that Stéphane Dion will win a Liberal Majority (155) if he waits out the Harper mandate.  A Liberal Party Minority win is projected on any Election after January 2009 & a Majority after September 2009.

Feb 23rd 2008:  Lotsa snap election talk in Ottawa again this week but four national polls beg the question "what's the point, eh?"  The long term momentum continues to indicate that Stéphane Dion will win a Liberal Majority (160) if he waits out the Harper mandate.  It would seem to be in the NDP/BQ interest to "go early" from a preservation standpoint.  A Liberal Party Minority win is projected on any Election after October 2008 & a Majority after August 2009.

Feb 20th 2008:  Lotsa snap election talk in Ottawa again this week but four national polls beg the question "what's the point, eh?"  The long term momentum continues to indicate that Stéphane Dion will win a Liberal Majority (159) if he waits out the Harper mandate.  It would seem to be in the NDP/BQ interest to "go early" from a preservation standpoint.  A Liberal Party Minority win is projected on any Election after October 2008 & a Majority after August 2009.

Feb 18th 2008:  What seemed like a suicidal position in standing firm on the Afghanistan mission is never-the-less gaining back support for the Conservatives.  However, the long term momentum continues to indicate that Stéphane Dion will win a Liberal Majority (155) if he waits out the Harper mandate.  It would seem to be in the NDP/BQ interest to "go early" from a preservation standpoint.  A Liberal Party Minority win is projected on any Election after December 2008 & a Majority after September 2009.

Feb 16th 2008:  Events over the last week went best for the Conservatives and they regain the extraordinary lead held by the Liberals last week.  However, the long term momentum continues to indicate that Stéphane Dion will win a Liberal Majority (159) if he waits out the Harper mandate.  It would seem to be in the NDP/BQ interest to "go early" from a preservation standpoint.  A Liberal Party Minority win is projected on any Election after Sept 2008 & a Majority after August 2009.

Feb 8th 2008:  With the first February poll, one has to wonder what the 3 poison pill motions are all about.  This early February polling-to-Riding Projection Conversion reveals that their surprise December taking of the lead was not an anomaly.  Our long term momentum continues to indicate that Stéphane Dion will win a Liberal Majority (169) if he waits out the Harper mandate.  A Liberal Party Minority win is projected on any Election after March 2008 & a Majority after February 2009.

Feb 5th 2008:  Final January polling-to-Riding Projection Conversions reconfirm that the Conservatives regained the lead this month, but our long term momentum still shows that Stéphane Dion would win a Liberal Majority (161) if he waits out the Harper mandate.  A Liberal Party Minority win is projected on any Election after December 2008 & a Majority after May 2009.

Jan 29, 2008:  Late January polling-to-Riding Projection Conversions reconfirm that the Conservatives have regained the lead, but our long term momentum still shows that Stéphane Dion would win a Liberal Majority (162) if he waits out the Harper mandate.  A Liberal Party Minority win is projected on any Election after November 2008 & a Majority after May 2009.

Jan 17  2008:  The Conservatives have taken back the lead in January polling-to-Riding Projection conversions, but our long term momentum still shows that Stéphane Dion could win with Liberal Majority (161) if he waits out the Harper mandate.  A Liberal Party Minority win is projected on any Election after January 2009 & a Majority after July 2009.

Jan 12  2008:  Further repercussions from the Mulroney-Schreiber affair, notably perceptions of evasiveness on the part of Cabinet Ministers, along with a perceived "attitude" associated with PM Harper are revealed in the December Seat Projections.  Somewhat disastrous for the Conservatives at a point in time when Opposition Leader Dion threatens a Spring Election.

As seen in the above chart, the Liberal Party regains the lead (122 projected MPs) for the first time since its Leadership Race bump from Nov/2006 to Jan/2007.

TrendLines has been projecting a Conservative Majority in its 2009 Target since April 2007.  Today's abrupt changeover to a probable Liberal Majority reflects a seachange in voter sentiment.  A Liberal Party Minority win is projected on any Election after December 2008 & a Majority after June 2009.  162 MP's if at the end of the mandate.

Jan 4  2008:  Lotsa bravado from the Liberals wrt a Spring Election; but methinx it's part of a strategy whereby Mr Dion has been asked to fall on his sword so that they can rebuild the Party in the aftermath...

Nov 9  2007:  We await with frenzied anticipation new numbers as Dion attempts to re-brand the Liberal Party with new emphasis including an anti-poverty plank and, i luv this one ... "let's raise the GST back to 7"!

Oct 28 2007:  When Dion vowed to vote against the Speech, i told folks it was a very foolish move 'cuz it left him absolutely no wiggle room.  Another tactical blunder.

Sept 19 2007:  With the By-elections resolved, today's chart confirms old trends.  While the elusive Majority may be available with the Spring 2008 Budget confidence vote, there seems to be merit in awaiting the end of the mandate if a significant cushion for the governing Party is desired.

July 17 2007:  Prospects for a Conservative landslide continue to slip away.  The Afghanistan Mission, questionable Cabinet depth, residual concern with respect to dedication to the Environment & increasingly a gnawing distaste for Leadership style of Stephen Harper ... are all factors sabotaging a major windfall for the Conservatives.


Random commentary: 

August - Late in 2005, TrendLines Research picked up a change in momentum that allowed us to commence published predictions of a Federal Conservative Minority starting Nov 30th ... seven weeks before Election Day; and in spite of the fact that the Liberal Party was ahead in almost all polls from May to Christmas!  Back-testing of our present model shows we should have been predicting 121-123 Conservative MP's from Dec23 to Jan23 ... instead of our Election Day prediction of 140.  The ballot day count was 125 MP's.

 


 

March 1st 2007 - Please note that the TrendLines Federal Riding Projections will re-commence on April 5th !!

Evalina and i were fortunate to meet PM Stephen Harper during his visit to the Yukon to open the Canada Winter Games last month.  The PM has cast aside his ideological bias in recent months to facilitate governance rather than Party preference.  It is a strategy that has untold ramifications wrt gaining new sentiment while alienating some core support.



Jan 23 2006 - Election Results added to graph.  As mentioned Sunday, the models failed to forecast the 127 Liberal MP's in the 2004 Election.  Despite the advantage of analysis of the Sunday polls this time around, the six models again failed to distribute the Undecided significantly.  And failed to forecast a 29 Liberal MP thrust.  Ontario again was the modelers downfall.  Only the SES poll showed the 7% turnaround on Sunday by the Liberals.  The CPC led in Ontario by 2% going into the weekend.  Sunday aft the Liberals had a 5% lead.  The NDP did pick up much of the Undecided during the last week of the Campaign and rose to a campaign high of 35.  However, the Liberals got them on the last day.

  The February 2007 Federal Budget will be a Confidence test but the Electorate will have no appetite for another trip to the Ballot Boxes.  February 2008 is our target to try this all again.  In the meantime, TrendLines will, as in the past, post the Riding Projections indicated by future poll releases.

Visit us on Friday.  We will post a summary of the six models and this year's best forecaster.

How did the Riding Projection models fare?

  ACTUAL

Canadian Election 2006

  UBC Stock Forecast Tonie Chaltas

Hill & Knowlton

Milton Chan

Election Prediction

Allen Gregg

Strategic Counsel

Ipsos Reid Barry Kay

LISPOP WLU

Greg Morrow

Democratic Space

Jordan O'Brien Freddy Hutter TrendLines Final Prediction TrendLines 7-model Avg
Conservative 125 147 118 140 150 140 128 135 140 140 124
Liberal 96 62 104 75 64 78 94 72 75 74 103
Bloc-Q 53 60 56 58 58 56 56 62 57 58 51
NDP 33 38 29 35 36 33 29 38 35 35 29
Indep't 1 1 1 - - 1 1 1 1 1 1
 
Riding Errors:   14 82 12 58 80 50 18 62 56 58 their 2004 scores
Rating: 2 10 "1" 6 9 4 3 8 5 6
Canadian Federal Riding Projection 2006:

Standings based on polls to Jan 22nd:
140 Conservative Party MP's
74 Liberal Party MP's
58 Bloc Quebecois MP's
35 NDP MP's
1 Others

2006 Jan 23rd 4pm Final Update:  Based on the Federal Election Campaign to date, TrendLines is currently projecting a Conservative Party Minority of 140 MP's on Election Day (Jan 23rd 2006).  Our Political Analyst, Freddy Hutter, has been predicting a Tory Minority since Nov 30th based on their momentum from mid September to date.  The balance of Election Day Forecasts are projected as:

TrendLines Election Day Prediction:
140 Conservative Party MP's
75 Liberal Party MP's
57 Bloc Quebecois MP's
35 NDP MP's
1 Others

Upon new national poll releases, the Seat Projection will be updated daily at Noon (PST).  FYI, based on Riding Projection movement during the 2004 Campaign and since, the Liberal Party drifted in a range that would yield 87-173 MP's, the Conservative Party had a range of 58-127 MP's, the BQ 53-67 MP's & the NDP 17-40 MP's.  The Liberals are thus running below core support at times & the Conservatives are attaining new highs.


Jan 23rd:  Three major pollsters have continued their polling into Sunday.  In the 2004 Election, only EKOS picked up the last weekend turnaround of fortunes for the Liberal Party.  Our projection (below) shows that the Liberals gained 27 Ridings in that last flurry.  Awesome work by Paul Martin, we must agree.  The frantic polling over the weekend reflects the fear that lightning may strike twice.  But this time there is no evidence of a change in sentiment.  Only a desire for "change".


The polls are saying it all.  The Conservatives never hit 38% popular opinion in the Spring 2005 excitement.  They never hit 38% during the 2004 Election Campaign.  Last week, two polling firms showed them attaining 40% for the first time.  This week they reached 42%.  And the Liberals have a huge problem.  If they play their negative attack ads, the public and even the media chastises them liberally.  If they don't play them, they can't catch up.  And there are indications that the Undecided will lean towards the NDP in the remaining days.


While the daily announcements by Stephen Harper of planks in the Tory platform seem to do nothing, and a Decima/Carleton Journalism poll suggests that his ads are actually driving folks to vote Liberal, it seems that the hand gun announcement by Paul Martin is the first wedge issue that is polarizing voters.  It is causing concern and anger in SW Ontario and the West and we are seeing up to ten percent in poll movement from Liberal to Conservative over the fear of rifles being the next target of confiscation.  This should lead to the first momentum turn of our Riding Projections and continue the rising tide of support for the Conservatives that began after Labour Day and is the basis thus far for our CPC target win on Election Day.   An early Strategic Counsel survey has revealed that 55% of the Undecided will not vote Conservative 'cuz they are not familiar with that Party's policies and current platform.  OTOH, 67% will not vote Liberal due to ethics concerns.  It is clear that during the course of the campaign it will be easier for Harper to explain intended legislation during his mandate than it will be for Martin to rid himself of association with Liberal Party corruption charges, admissions and (Gomery) findings.  Barring new developments and performances at the Debates, this indicates a slow rise in support for the Conservatives as they reveal their stance.


Political Analyst, Gregory Morrow of UCLA, has an interesting theory.  As he watches recent Canadian polls he firmly believes that strategic voting is being done by NDP supporters i.e. they see Conservative strength reach the threshold where they are poised for governance, NDP supporters turn on fringe or losing NDP candidates and shift their support to the local Liberal candidate.  This confirms my belief that it is wiser for the Jack Layton and the NDP to leverage their "balance of power" position than strive form several more seats.  Thus, as we see in the Projection graph above, there seems to be linkage between the NDP seats and the Conservative seats.


TrendLines is pleased to present this update of our Canadian Federal Election Riding Projections.  It's a depiction of the MP distribution had Paul Martin been defeated or called an Election.  It's based on a compilation of Seat Projections by academics and political analysts including Barry Kay, Jordan O'Brien, Gregory Morrow & Tonie Chaltas ... all doing stellar work for little recognition.  Their studies for our purposes are in turn based on the April 2005 to January 2006 published national and regional public opinion poll data (with avg 3% margin of error).  We are again including Ipsos Reid projections when available.  Late in this campaign we added the studies of Allen Gregg (Strategic Counsel).

In addition, studies by Andrew Heard, Alan Hall & EKOS were included in the 2004 Projections, all of which are based on the analysis of the published national & regional polls.  We also included Milton Chan and his novel "contact methodology".  Scroll below for more info on methodology, 2004 Projections, etc.




Summary of 2004 Canadian Election:

2004/6/27
To: Press Release
To: TrendLines subscribers and courtesy mailing list

What a Difference a Week Makes, eh!

Sober second thought or an anomaly? As visitors to our website have seen over the last ten days, it's turned into a horse-race. On June 16th we saw a peaking of Conservative popularity which, if the trend had held, would have given their party 155 votes, precisely the min number required for a majority gov't. Then the polls last weekend started collapsing and by June 24 the Liberals had actually moved ahead (by one seat) in an Ipsos-Reid seat projection ... as well as many public opinion polls. At the same we saw polls of the view of Harper as best Prime Minister drop several points behind Martin.

Election Day is tomorrow. We augment our graph today with another below illustrating an indication of where our Projections for the Conservative Party by Election Day were as the campaign developed (as opposed to that point in time). It was truly exciting albeit a lesson again in the success of negative advertising and misinformation.

SES/CPAC nightly polling and rolling averages illustrates that 57% of the voting public believes it is "time for change" ... only down 4% from the campaign high. This indicates that folks still want Change ... but the negative ads have struck fear in them as far as voting for the Conservatives. And the NDP and Green are considered to be too marginal.

Since May 31st, TrendLines has been predicting a Conservative minority gov't based on the trending shown above ... and on June 16th we foresaw the slim hope for majority status but today we see election day results of 117 seats for Stephen Harper and the Conservatives, 105 for Paul Martin and the Liberals, 60 for the B-Q, 25 for the NDP and one Independent in BC (former Conservative incumbent). This incorporates projections of Liberal wins by EKOS and Milton Chan & a Conservative win by Ipsos-Reid and Barry Kay.  As a late addition, we also add to the table Andrew Heard of SFU and Alan Hall's Electoral Engineering studies at GP Murray Research.

 

How did the Riding Projection models fare?

  ACTUAL

Canadian Election 2004

  Milton Chan

Election Prediction

EKOS Alan Hall

GP Murray Research

Andrew Heard

SFU

Ipsos Reid Barry Kay

LISPOP WLU

Freddy Hutter TrendLines Final Prediction TrendLines 6-model Avg
Liberal 121 117 99 103 101 108 105 108 135
Conservative 105 109 115 130 117 114 117 115 99
Bloc-Q 52 55 66 56 66 59 60 59 54
NDP 29 27 28 18 24 26 25 25 19
Indep't 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1
 
Riding Errors:   32 38 74 66 70 54 60 54 their 2006 scores
Rating: "1" 2 8 6 7 3 5 3

Here's the roller-coaster ride that Harper and the Conservatives will re-live and analyze 'til "the next election". With the prospect of minority gov't, guess we'll be in contact sooner rather than later ...
Freddy H>

Some of the graphing methodology is explained below:
--------------------------------------------------
NOTE:
me:  During the '93 federal election i left my position as Reform Kitchener Riding President to spend more time on polling via my firm, TrendLines. We did constituency polling in s-w Ontario for 5 ridings at that time, an expansion of our roots in the 1990 Provincial Election.  In Jan/99 we relocated to BC & have settled on the shores of Howe Sound in a cabin off the Sea-to-Sky Hwy. In the "off-season", Evalina and i provide coaching and financial planning strategies to micro entrepreneurs.

seat projections: A hybrid to national and provincial public opinion polling is to analyze the results to reflect how they would translate to riding support. As u know, the concentration of support is more important than broad support. That's how the Reform party translated its results in the '97 election into so many seats while the PC's, with more popular support got much fewer. This data methodology is spearheaded by colleague Dr Barry Kay at WLU and its record for errors for each party may be counted on just one hand! This year's data encompasses studies by Ipsos-Reid, EKOS, Andrew Heard, Alan Hall & Milton Chan as well. The apr/may/jun results are a compilation of these six seat projectors in Canada. The "election day projection" is my own prediction of where the trend lines will subside.

redistribution proxy: There are 308 seats up for grabs this month, 7 more than y2k, due to population increases. At the same time, many boundaries are altered to accommodate the changed riding sizes. The graph's Redistribution Proxy (third column) shows what the y2k election would have looked like using the y2k votes at poll centres but under these new riding boundaries. If u notice the first column, it shows the actual y2k results ... thus thru redistribution ... if folks did not change their vote and new voters are ignored ... the liberals go from 172 in y2k to 142, pc's & alliance from 78 to 118 as unified conservatives, b-q stay at 38 and NDP drop from 13 to 10.
-------------------------------------------------
Please contact me anytime with comments or questions. Feel free to distribute data if referenced.




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