I'm
pleased to tell TRENDLiners this past Autumn 75% of visitors
were International (117 nations: most from USA, UK,
Australia, Argentina, Italy, France, Japan, Spain, Germany & Austria)
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charts, tables, archive & enhanced discussion)
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TRI-Canada
sees no
Canadian GDP Contractions thru 2017 horizon
Feb 20 2012 delayed
FreeVenue public release of Nov 20th MemberVenue guidance ~ After a
bursting of the housing bubble in June and two subsequent months of
contraction, the
Trendlines Recession Indicator
weighs there to be enuf critical mass in the economy for an
increasingly stronger expansion of the business cycle. Real
GDP growth is gauged by TRI to have been 1.9% in October, up from a
o.0% pace in September (Q3). Since the last update, StatCan
has released data inferring August's RGDP was 1.3% (TRI =
-1.5%). The current TRI outlook projects a 2.0% rate in
November & 2.0% for Q4. After a brief setback to 1.3% in Q1,
TRI today forecasts a much more impressive 4.6% GDP crest in 2014Q4
... en route to an end-of-cycle soft landing of 2.2% in 2017Q4.
Following an RGDP
trough in May 2009, Canada's fiscal stimulus plan served up a robust
economic Recovery. The transition to Expansion of the next
business cycle began afresh in Aug/2010 upon RGDP surpassing its
2008 peak. At 7.3% in Oct/2011, however, the Unemployment Rate
is not yet half way back to its pre-recession 2007 low of 5.3% after
rocketing to an 8.7% peak in Aug/2009.
Factors contributing to short/medium term weakness of the TRI
outlook continue to be: (a) waning Fed/Prov fiscal stimulus
cheques; (b) high oil prices; (c) an Export killing
"par-plus" Loonie & (d) the Canadian Housing Bubble.
click chart for
graphic view back to 1952, outlook table & full discussion...
Feb 15th delayed FreeVenue public
release of Nov 15th MemberVenue guidance ~
monthly update of Freddy Hutter's
Peak Scenario-2500 Oil Depletion
Model
Underlying Decline Rate Observed
2011: 3.2% (2.8 Mbd) of
global All
Liquids
click graph for
more PS-2500 charts, tables & full discussion...
Barrel Meter
:
$204
Oil in 2028 will Induce Peak Demand
Feb 11th delayed FreeVenue public release of Nov 11th MemberVenue
guidance ~
The
USA contract Crude Price averaged $98 in October, down $2 over the
last thirty
days ... 19% over its $82/barrel Fundamentals Fair
Value.
At month end, the cost of imported oil ranged from $90/barrel
for Canada Heavy to $116 for Malaysia Tapis Light. Confidence
levels suggest the monthly average could exhibit a trading range
spanning $75 to $132/barrel thru the balance of Q4
& 2012Q1.
Global production has increased dramatically from the Recession low of 83.1
Mbd
(Jan/2009), setting yet another monthly record (89.1 Mbd) in
Sept/2011.
This established a new quarterly record of 88.3 Mbd. The oil sector is on pace to shatter last year's annual record and monthly
production is poised to break the 90-mbd threshold in
January 2013, the 95 milepost in 2019 & natural Geologic Peak should be
pre-empted by Peak Demand of 100 Mbd in 2028. International Inventories
are near the 5-yr avg and 5% of global capacity is presently idle, eagerly awaiting new
Demand from developing non-OECD nations.
For a second
time in three years Saudi Arabia shocked McPeaksters via a major
boost to its extraction, this time enuf to shatter its 2006 monthly,
quarterly and annual records. This
validation of its Surplus Capacity and renewed role of swing
producer assured the markets its claims were indeed bona fide.
Again it served to drive down Crude Prices as traders acknowledged
they were wrong.
Improving
fundamentals and declining Windfall Profits over the next several
weeks should drive
down Crude Prices, even to a brief flirtation with
$74/barrel by Spring. Upon attaining equilibrium, Crude Price
will revert to its secular uptrend. Fear the latter half of
this
Barrel Meter
forecast won't come to fruition
may lead the more nervous and vulnerable OPEC members to again
break quota discipline whilst calling for production cuts.
click chart for graph to 2021, tables & more discussion...
the Gas Pump
~ DDB says gas can spike to $4.39/gal if Israel bombs Iran in 2011
Feb 9th
delayed FreeVenue public release of Nov 9th MemberVenue guidance ~
All-Grades Retail Gasoline averaged $3.51 in October ... down 16¢
over 30 days. With the
Gas
Pump model
projecting Gasoline to trough @ $2.80/gal in May 2012, short-term
anxiety may spark an unnecessary OPEC intervention. The
current slide reflects increasingly favourable Crude Price
fundamentals within the
Barrel Meter
model.
The primary forcing
for the recent multi-month price run was clearly USDollar
Debasement. Mismanagement of Federal Budgeting (see
Debt Wall
analysis) since Barack Hussein Obama's inauguration adds 35¢/gal to
current pump prices. Recent IAEA disclosures have led to
speculation on a third (Iraq/Syria/Iran) Israeli bombing raid on
illicit Middle East nuclear facilities.
Gas Pump
analysis suggests such a 2011 event could see gasoline spike to
$4.39/gallon before being reversed by the model's Demand Destruction
Barrier.
EFFECT on USA ECONOMY ~ When the Pump Price surged above
$3.26/gallon in February 2011, it breached the
model's Light Vehicle Sales Collapse Threshold ... a
definitive Gasoline/GDP ratio. As seen in the
(blue) FRB chart below, the post-Recession rebound of
unit sales was truncated right on queue in March 2011
upon the latest transgression.
Since
November 2009 the
Barrel Meter
has been warning there is a line-in-the-sand that if surpassed would
strangle the post Great Recession auto sector rebound. New Car
Sales were decimated upon crossing this threshold in 1980, 1990 &
2007. The Great Recession saw volume collapse from a 16
million unit annual rate to 9 mu/yr. Sales had climbed back to
13.2 mu/yr by Feb/2011, but then collapsed to an 11.5 mu/yr pace
when consumers were confronted with high gasoline/diesel prices.
click chart for more graphs, table & full discussion at the Gas Pump
venue...
Saudi Arabia blasts past Russia
Feb 8th delayed FreeVenue public release of Nov 7th
MemberVenue guidance ~
In a
grudge match that spans three decades, Saudi Arabia has overcome
OPEC quota restrictions to surpass Russia as World's top All Liquids
producer. In the process, the Kingdom broke its annual record
(10.7 Mbd) and also set a new global quarterly record (11.3 Mbd) and
global monthly record (11.4 Mbd) as it boosted flows in its role as
swing producer to replace lost Libya extraction. That said, it
is improbable Russia's 1987 annual/quarterly/monthly records (11.5
Mbd) will ever be surpassed.
In 3rd place, the USA flow of 8.8
Mbd is down a tad from its recent Quarterly high. Following
are: China (4.1), Iran (3.5), Canada (3.4) & Mexico (2.9 Mbd).
Trendlines Research's
All Liquids Underlying Decline Rates Observed in 2011:
Worldwide 3.4% (2.9-mbd), Saudi Arabia 3.2% (0.35-mbd) &
USA 2.5% (0.22-mbd)
click a chart for World Oil Production Records venue
World
Production Records: New Monthly Consumption
Records Improbable 'til Crude Prices Subside
Feb 7th delayed FreeVenue
public release of Nov 7th MemberVenue guidance ~
The pace of flow rates indicates a new global
Annual Production record
of 87.8
Mbd is being set in 2011.
A new global
Quarterly Production record of 89.0 Mbd
was set in 2011Q3.
September 2011 gains distinction for the all time
global Monthly Production record: 89.1 Mbd.
Production is on track to break 90 in
January 2013 and 95 in 2019.
A
new
Quarterly record for Demand
of
89.3 Mbd was set in 2011Q3. September
2011 also set a new high mark for Monthly Demand:
89.9 Mbd ... an incredible leap from the Recession
low for Consumption of 82.5-mbd in May 2009.
Because the USA contract crude price currently surpasses
the
Barrel Meter's Peak
Demand Barrier ($102/barrel), it is improbable
consumption levels will increase 'til oil prices
subside...
click
a chart for World Oil Production Records venue
USA
"Real"Unemployment Rate drops to 16.2% in
October
Feb 4th delayed
FreeVenue public release of Nov 4th MemberVenue guidance ~
Today's headline USA
Unemployment Rate for October may be 9.0% (U-3), but the dire state of
the jobless is better reflected by the REAL Unemployment Rate
of 16.2%. The latter includes
discouraged/marginally attached workers and economically
necessitated part-timers. The rate is down from 16.5% in
September, but is still barely below the Great Recession induced high of 17.4%
set October 2009.
The North American auto sector rebound was strangled in early February upon
gasoline & crude prices surpassing the critical thresholds of $3.26/gal &
$90/barrel. The
Gas Pump analysis concluded breach of a definitive
Gasoline/GDP ratio that had induced collapses of
Light Vehicle Sales in 1980, 1990 & 2007 would have similar
consequences. And, right on queue, vehicle volumes fell
13% by June. As the crude price subsided to $94, sales volumes
rebounded to February levels, but the recent intrusion into triple
digits could once again stymie auto sector activity and employment.
click chart for full
discussion at UR site...
Oct 31 2011
monthly update ~
Realty Bubble Monitor
Overpricing of Median/Avg Home in September 2011:
Bubble Today
price rise/fall past 90 days
med/avg price
Bubble Today
Bubble @ Peak
$110,000
$ -300/week
Australia
36%
$179k
& 71% (2007)
$ 89,000
$-1,500/week
Canada
32%
$89k
& 32% (2011)
$ - 7,000
$ -800/week
USA
-4%
$74k
& 34% (2005)
£ 90,000
$ -200/week
UK
120%
£111k
& 157% (2007)
Jan 31st delayed
FreeVenue public release of Oct 31st MemberVenue guidance ~ Over the past 90 days,
the average/median home price fell $300/week in Australia,
$1,500/week in Canada, $800/week in USA & £200/week in the UK.
The USA realty bubble over-corrected this Summer and the annual
median home price is 4% below the long-term Price/Family-Income
ratio trend. The UK, Australia & Canada face a prolonged
stifling of economic activity due to the assault on disposable
incomes by the weight of home mortgages and rent. Adding in
the burden of cumulative high petroleum costs, the fundamentals are
in place for Technical Recessions in all three jurisdictions.
Families most at risk are in the UK
where the average home is overpriced by 120%. The Australian
median home is currently 36% overpriced. Canada's realty
bubble finally burst in June 2011, but the average Canadian home is
still 32% overpriced and 2.1 x's its American counterpart. As
such, the Canadian economy contracted in June & July and the
TRENDLines Recession Indicator projects sub 2% GDP 'til
2014Q3.
The Conservative Federal Gov't & Bank
of Canada talking points blame the Japanese earthquake, EURO
troubles & Justin Bieber but CMHC is clearly at fault for this
situation. Canada was the last G-20 nation to fall into
Recession in 2008 and the first one out - not by clever
fiscal/monetary policy but because CMHC was enabling the housing
bubble by condoning 5% minimum downpayments for its high-ratio
mortgage insurance coverage. The present economic downturn is
solely a "made-in-Canada" malaise and has been
foretold in this venue since March 24 2010. It is scandalous
the measure continues in place and Canadian taxpayers are clearly at
risk. If there is any sense of accountability in Ottawa, look
for heads to roll at CMHC.
click chart for the
USA New Homes graph & full 4-nation Bubble discussion ...
TRI-USA sees no GDP contractions for balance of Business Cycle
Jan 28th delayed
public release of Oct 28th MemberVenue guidance ~
September saw the American economy finally surpass its Dec-2007 Real
GDP high water mark. However, the
TRENDLines Recession Indicator
projects the weakness of the Recovery will be replaced by an even
slower Expansion of the new business cycle on the short term. The
October Real GDP growth rate is gauged at
2.2%, down from
2.4% in September. Yesterday, BEA announced its first estimate
for
Q3 (Sept) @ 2.5% (vs 2.4% TRI).
TRI's fuzzy horizon
extends thru a full business cycle. It is presently
forecasting 1.8% GDP for November, 2.1% in Q4 & 1.3% by 2012Q1. Today's outlook
upgrades Q4 slightly, reflecting the easing of this Spring's high petroleum
prices on the especially vulnerable auto sector. However, the
effects of cumulative fossil fuel price increases are still permeating thru the economy.
As such, the growth rate will worsen and trough @ 0.5% in Feb-2012. Under the present
toxic political environment, TRI projects a crest to this cycle of only
4.0% in 2014Q4. The model forecasts 5-yr
mortgage rates shall rise
2.0% as the business cycle attains maximum momentum in 2015.
Monetary Policy actions by the Federal Reserve & the Treasury Secretary's guidance to
Congress with respect to Fiscal Policy will ultimately determine whether the
current cycle's bottom in 2017Q4 will be a hard or soft
landing, but at this time the latter is indicated.
click chart for
graphic view back to 1970, outlook table & full discussion...
TRENDLines Peak Oil Depletion Invalidated Scenarios Archive
~
Jan 24th delayed FreeVenue public release of Oct 23rd MemberVenue
guidance: update of Robt Hirsch outlook; Jean Laherrère
2011 update downgraded to Invalidated status from Tier-1
TRENDLiners will recognize French
geologist Jean Laherrère as being the 3-peat winner of our "world's
best vintage forecaster" title. It is awarded for the most accurate
pre-2001 prediction for the current year - similar to the Nobel Prize ... but
w/o the money! So it is awkward for me to announce today that Jean has
slipped from Tier-1 status to Invalidated. His 2010 Outlook forecast a
2011/2012 Peak Plateau of 87 Mbd. This month's update amends the plateau
to 2014-2016 but failed to revise the Peak Rate. Therein lies the problem:
2011 is setting a new world record of 88 Mbd. History trampled our star
before the ink was dry! And I await his new Outlook to reflect this
surprising surge in production.
Robert Hirsch
updated his Outlook this month, but it remains a very simple
conjecture-based effort much inferior most studies. The 2011
version revises last year's 87-Mbd Peak Plateau centered on 2014 to
a seven-year band averaging 85 Mbd centered on 2013. Even more
pessimistic as to the future, its post-peak decline rate has been
raised to 6% from an inferred 4% last year. This reduces his
inferred URR to 1,951 Gb (from 2,206 Gb). As its target has
been obviously far surpassed, Hirsch's Outlook retains its
Invalidated status.
click chart for
Tier-2, Tier-1, Conventional Oil & many more graphs, tables &
discussion...
TRENDLines Peak Oil Depletion Tier-1 Scenarios:
Jan 23rd delayed FreeVenue
public release of Oct 23rd MemberVenue guidance ~ downgrades Jean Laherrère update from Tier-1
to Invalidated status; updates my own
Hutter Peak Scenario-2500;
& updates the Invalidated Robt Hirsch outlook
Consensus based on
16-model Tier-1 avg:
Peak Oil: 97 Mbd in 2024
Post-peak Decline Rate to 2050: 0.8%/yr avg
The year 50% of URR/EUR has been extracted: 2036
The year flow breaches below today's 88 Mbd: 2041
The year flow is 1/2 of today's 88 Mbd: 2087
The year we virtually run out of oil: 2285 (less
than 8 Mbd & mostly BTL)
Global URR/EUR:
4,207 Gb (1,256 Gb consumed to 2010/12/31 excl 4 Gb BTL)
Today's Global Depletion:
31% of URR (Net Depletion Rate: 1.1%/yr)
click chart for
Tier-2 & many more graphs, tables & discussion...
Global
GDP:
Year 2007 5.2%
Year 2008 -0.4%
Year 2009 2.4% Year 2010
4.8% Year
2011
4.3% (pending)
Year 2012 4.4% (est)
2008Q1
2008Q2
2008Q3
2008Q4
2009Q1
2009Q2
2009Q3
2009Q4
2010Q1
2010Q2
2010Q3
2010Q4
2011Q1
2011Q2
2011Q3
2011Q4
3.9%
1.4%
-0.6%
-6.3%
-5.5%
4.2%
5.0%
5.7%
5.9%
4.8%
3.9%
4.5%
4.3%
3.7%
3.6%
3.6%
est
G-20
Nations in Technical or Severe Recession:
USA
21% of Global GDP
USA Japan
Germany France Italy
38% of Global GDP
USA Japan
Germany France Italy
38% of Global GDP
USA Japan
Germany UK France Italy Mexico
43% of Global GDP
USA Japan Germany UK
Russia France Brazil Italy Canada Turkey Mexico
SouthAfrica
53% of Global GDP
USA
Japan Germany UK Russia France
Brazil Italy Canada Turkey Mexico
SouthAfrica
53% of Global GDP
UK Russia
Italy Canada
SouthAfrica Turkey
27%
of Global GDP
UK Turkey
Russia
8%
of Global GDP
Russia
3%
of Global GDP
nil
nil
Japan
8%
of Global GDP
Japan
8% of Global GDP
Japan
8% of Global GDP
pending:
Japan
8% of Global GDP
And Not
in Recession in 2011Q1:
USA, China, Germany, France, UK, Italy,
Brazil,
Canada, Russia, India, Australia, Mexico, South Korea,
Turkey, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa &
Argentina (in
order of GDP & comprising
69% of worldwide GDP; excludes 20th
membership, courtesy to EU). The remaining
160 nations comprise only 23% of worldwide GDP
click here for more G-20 graphs &
full discussion.
USA Debt
Wall
- Structural Deficits Leading to Treasuries Crisis in 2022
Jan 9
2012
delayed FreeVenue public release of Oct 9th MemberVenue guidance ~
After a decade monitoring the issue, Trendlines Research began
publishing alerts in early 2009 warning the USA Federal Gov't is
headed for an inevitable financial crisis related to its weekly
Treasury auctions. With concern over the integrity of
sovereign debt, bond vigilantes are increasingly monitoring
Deficit/GDP & Nat'l-Debt/GDP ratios. It appears the current
Wall Street spotlight on European nations will be donned on American
Treasury activities within eleven short years.
Building on certain measures within the January Obama Budget, the
Tea-Party was instrumental in using the Debt Limit vote to
negotiate further present-decade expenditure cuts. This served
to postpone the Deficit/GDP ratio exceeding 3% 'til 2022.
However, all the good seemingly good intentions only means the Debt
by 2021 will $23 billion instead of $22 billion. And that sets
the date for my forecasted first sovereign debt downgrade ... to "B"
from "A". 3% has long been the accepted threshold past which
it is difficult for a jurisdiction to maintain sustainable budgets.
Indeed the USA is three times that today, but sunsetting of
Recession fiscal policy measures and this Summer's scheduled cuts
should see the ratio dip to 1.0% in 2018. After that date and
barring further intervention, structural deficits take command of
the USA's demise taking the Deficit/GDP ratio to 24% over the next
three decades.
The Federal Gov't is on a path to double today's $15-trillion
National Debt by 2026 and triple it by 2032. When we commenced
this graphic, most buyers of US Treasuries were unaware of these
precise numbers, but they have had a sense for a while that
America's fiscal well being was suffering from substantial
mismanagement and a potentially unsustainable future.
click chart for
Debt Wall's
full discussion...
Regular Conventional Oil Scenarios: ~
Aug 23 2011 delayed FreeVenue public release of May 23rd guidance @ the
MemberVenue: There have been only 4 modellers worldwide who
have published long term production profiles for
Regular Conventional Oil ... the light sweet crude:
Albert Bartlett
(USA), Colin Campbell (Ireland), M King Hubbert (USA)
& TRENDLines' own Freddy Hutter (Yukon Canada).
Jean Laherrère & Colin Campbell have been the sector's
most stalwart peak oil study practitioners. Both have openly
shared their annual analysis with fellow modellers for two decades.
This week, we coaxed
Campbell to come out of retirement with an update for a
second time.
Campbell's 2011 Depletion Model extends RCO's
dramatic 2.6%/yr post-peak production decline rate thru to 2030.
It increases RCO's URR by 83-Gb to 2,046-Gb ... a career high
estimate.
Conversely, the Hutter Peak Scenario-2500
(the only other active model) has reduced last year's URR by 68-Gb
to 2,062-Gb. While Campbell forecasts the annual flow rate
deteriorates to 38-mbd (up 3) by 2030, Hutter takes the position
59-mbd is more probable. On the longer term, whereas
Campbell predicts the annual Decline rate softens after 2030,
Hutter sees major resource constraint after 2039.
The
PS-2500 model has determined the steep RCO decline (2006-2009)
was not the result of rapid depletion but rather a mirage created by
shifts to Surplus Capacity. As such, it projects RCO
production over the next two decades will decline @ a gentler
0.6%/yr avg.
The future path of
All Liquids is directly related to these opposing views of RCO's
demise. One trajectory cements the McPeakster position that
Peak Oil is upon us. The other supports the optimism that
production keeps rising 'til Peak Demand in 2033 determines terminal
decline...
click chart for
more graphs & discussion...
TRENDLines Peak Oil Depletion Tier-2 Scenarios:
Aug 20th
delayed FreeVenue public release of May 20th guidance @ the
MemberVenue ~ Today's
revision downgrades to Tier-2 the Outlooks by (a)
Pierre-René Bauquis 2008 (staled-dated); & (b) Nansen Saleri
(lacks robustness of its peers).
Outlooks within the
Tier-2 & Hail Mary presentation are still viable
forecasts but exhibit one or more deemed flaws:
Poor
reconciliation with URR - Low projected Peak and/or overly
aggressive post-peak decline rate results in a future "dogleg"
to exhaust remaining resource: Koppelaar 2009 (2030) &
Robelius 2007 (2050)
Overly
optimistic medium term targets - 2014 is only three years away.
Megaproject analysis suggests flow rate will be 92-mbd.
Considering practitioner differences wrt Surplus Capacity &
Underlying Decline Observed, flow could be 97.9-mbd potentially
albeit highly improbable. Outlooks with deemed unachievable
2014 targets:
Brandt-Farrell 2008 (105.2mbd by 2014),
IHS 2007 (104), Lynch
1996 (100),
Wood Mackenzie 2007 (99.5) &
Robelius 2007 (98.5)
Hail Mary
Scenarios -
Practitioner has a more conservative outlook that has been featured
in Tier-1: EIA-Caruso 2005, EU WETO/POLES 2007
(reference) & Royal Dutch Shell 2008 (blueprint)
Inadequate robustness or
Conjecture-based: Royal Dutch Shell 2011, ITPOES 2010, Hirsch
2009, Odell 2009 & Lynch 1996
Barrel Meter Compared to Recognized Long-Term Crude Oil Price
Forecasts
~ updates by Deutsche Bank, EIA, Hutter & IEA
June 15th delayed
FreeVenue public release of March 15th guidance @ our MemberVenue ~
Today's chart updates price outlooks by Deutsche Bank, EIA,
IEA & Trendlines.
Extraordinary
consistency revealed in the updates by Adam Sieminski of
Deutsche Bank ($192),
EIA AEO 2011 ($200) & IEA WEO 2010 ($204).
Also revised from our
November chart is Freddy Hutter's monthly update of the
TRENDLines Barrel Meter.
Congress's decision to extend the Bush Tax Cuts along with Obama's
$1.5 trillion Deficit Budget have returned the USDollar to its
secular decline ... and rising Crude Price with no relief 'til the
Presidential Election. US$ Debasement is today a $19/barrel
component ... on its way to $37 absent mitigation efforts.
The USA contract crude
price is in breach of $90 ... the Oil/GDP threshold that
historically decimates Light Vehicle Sales and is on a journey to
cross the $112/barrel mark that will induce a new round of G-20
Recessions. In the improbable event a major spike presents
itself, the model predicts the Demand Destruction Barrier will
arrest the price run @ $153/barrel.
Should Congress
significantly address their structural deficit crisis, excess
surplus capacity (5-6 mbd) will allow Crude Price to slide to
$67/barrel by 2014Q1. The
Barrel Meter
imports data on projected extraction costs, spare production
capacity & business cycles from our
Peak
Scenario 2500
depletion model. A similar analysis for gasoline price is
featured via our
Gas Pump
presentation.
click chart for more
price discussions & graphs
May 6th delayed
FreeVenue public release of Dec 28 2010 guidance @ our MemberVenue
~
With deep respect to the Hansen & Kharecha (NASA) thesis above,
analysis by Trendlines Research projects All Liquids shall have a
Demand-inspired peak plateau of 89-mbd (2016-2039). The
resultant peak for fossil fuels emissions should occur in 2025.
Atmospheric co2 concentration will have risen to 411ppm. The
NASA work assumes a 96-mbd peak in 2016 - but is based on a 2003
study by EIA/Wood.
Our outlook further assumes peaks for coal in 2025 & natural gas in
2035. Note
that while atmospheric co2 concentration levels have tracked upwards
with emissions, the decay pulse would indicate residual co2 will not
follow the post peak downward path as quickly. Most co2
remains for a hundred years and traces linger for almost a
millennium. By Year 2100, co2 will have declined to only
342ppm ... taking us back to 1975 concentrations. It is
believed the long-term effect of this anthropogenic influence is
pushing back the next glacial event from 7000 AD to the next
harmonic in 40000 AD.
The infamous Al Gore
graph spike (the stepladder one) is pure fantasy. Its absurd
800ppm peak was based on an upward spike in co2 associated with the
1998 El Niño. This episode is viewable via the co2 emission
growth rate in the chart below. The 2001 IPCC Report, while
well intentioned, applied an extrapolated exponential increase in
co2 and temp's based on that anomaly. Observations over the
subsequent 10 years have shown that while the co2 emission rate is
indeed increasing, it is not at the alarming rate suggested by some
scientists and social engineers of the IPCC 2001 era.
A further development
has been the realization that the GDP/Energy Demand scenarios within
IPCC 2001 were overly optimistic in the sense that they assumed that
such growth accompanying increases in population and rising
disposable incomes in the developing world (mostly China & India),
cannot be fueled by fossil fuels. There isn't enuf oil, coal
or nat'l gas left in the ground to feed the magnificent projected
Demand. The target GDP growth may well occur, but will be
enabled by efficiencies, conservation and increases in nuclear
generated power.
click chart to visit
more charts & discussion @ our Climate Change venue...
May 6th delayed
FreeVenue public release of Dec 28 2010 guidance @ our MemberVenue
~ Our analysis
shows atmospheric co2 concentrations and the related growth rate are
both rising (see coral & yellow lines). Since the 60's, annual
increases have risen from less than 1ppm to 3ppm/yr. If there
is good news, it is that concentrations of the 16 Greenhouse Gases
as tracked by the NASA GHG Index are growing more slowly (1.2%
annually rather than over 2%/yr back in the early 80's. This
is thanx to headway in the methane and CFC fronts.
The infamous Al Gore
graph spike (the stepladder one) is pure fantasy. Its absurd
800ppm peak was based on an upward spike in co2 associated with the
1998 El Niño. It can be identified on the Mauna Loa chart
above. The 2001 IPCC Report, while well intentioned, applied
an extrapolated exponential increase in co2 and temp's based on that
anomaly (see coral Mauna Loa line in chart). Observations over
the subsequent 10 years have shown that while the co2 emission rate
is indeed increasing, it is not at the alarming rate suggested by
scientists and social engineers of the IPCC 2001 era.
Atmospheric co2 concentrations are 391ppm today, should peak @
411ppm in 2025 and decline to 442 by Year 2100. This
projection is in sharp contrast to the 2100 targets shown by the
global trend indicating 715ppm & Mauna Loa's present trending to
675ppm. The Trendlines targets are founded on fossil fuel
depletion forecasts including our own
Peak
Scenario-2500 study for All Liquids.
click chart to visit
more charts & discussion @ our Climate Change venue...
1996
2007
2010
1,650
Original
pre-1996 Discoveries
1,650
1,650
0
post-1995
backdates
417
417
0
post-1995
net discoveries
101
274
150
future
Conventional allowance
126
64
000
future
Non-Conv allowance
368
29
1,800Gb
2,662Gb
2,434Gb
Oops ... Discoveries & Reserve Growth not going as planned
May 5th delayed
FreeVenue public release of Dec 27 2010 guidance @ our MemberVenue
~ As we
predicted two years ago, URR/EUR is headed for 7-Tb ... not the
2.434-Tb projected by Colin Campbell of ASPO. Our 2007 chart
illustrated ASPO stealthily hid record levels of Discoveries &
Reserve Growth by clever backdating. Perhaps justified in that
methodology, McPeaksters are stymied today in being unable to defend
their "well running dry" rhetoric. The updated chart reveals
BP's increases in URR for 2007, 2008 & 2009 while increasing their
own URR to 2,705-Gb. In comparison, our 22-model URR estimates
study averages 3,991-Gb & our 20-model Tier-1 Depletion Scenarios
project infers All Liquids URR is 3,832-Gb.
The McPeakster thesis
is completely undermined with the graph showing the growth trend has
resumed its post 1995 pace. It is not dwindling to nothingness
as shown in ASPO's 2007 depiction. The table shows by 2007
Campbell had raised his URR estimate to 2,662-Gb from his 1996
figure of 1,800-Gb ... then proceeded to slash it to 2.434 over the
next three years. This means he expects only 93-Gb of future
discoveries of Regular Conventional (64-Gb) & Non-Conventional
(29-Gb) resource over the next century. In 1997 he expected
Discoveries & Reserve Growth to peter out by 2040. His 2010
figures infer a winding down of exploration by 2025.
This is unrealistic by
any measure. Colin Campbell represents a camp of fear mongers
that would have the public believe the globe is running out of oil.
It is a fraud and deception facilitated by groups like theOilDrum,
PeakOildotcom & irresponsible pundits like Jeff Rubin.
Altho we concur with the "backdating" methodology as such, i cannot
condone ASPO's manipulation of the data in a manner to mislead or
cause alarmism.
Colin Campbell published his first Historical Discoveries graph
in 1996. It was based on his estimated URR of 1800
billion barrels (Gb) and was comprised of 1650-Gb of
Discovered crude & a
150-Gb
allowance for probable Future Discoveries. His 2007 version
(at left) is misleading in the sense that its backdating methodology
gives the perception of "a well running dry".
The oil sector operates
in a framework founded on the understanding the Proved Reserves /
Annual Production ratio will be kept at 40 (years). This has
been the practice for three decades. Once attained, the ratio
is kept in status quo merely by adding just over annual consumption
each year. This is conventional supply chain management.
The McPeakster hypothesis that oil peaks 60 years after the
discovery peak in groundless and not without merit. In 1989,
they told everyone the peak came 30 years after. The
fraternity is not credible 'cuz they've been adding a year (to their
theory) ever since...
click chart for full
discussion & URR venue...
Conservatives
were in post-Debates free fall 'til Launch of SunNews
May 4th delayed
FreeVenue public release of guidance @ our MemberVenue
~ Release of Freddy Hutter's Antweiler-based riding projection
reveals the Conservatives were in free fall after the Leaders'
Debates, but a reversal in fortunes coincided with the April 18th
launch of the right-wing cable channel SunNews. Support
for PM Harper fell by 22 MPs in the six days following the April
11/12 Debates, then began the historic comeback to a 167 Majority.
It is said that the CTV Mike Duffy exposure of Dion's "Can we do
this again" outtake was the turning pint in October 2008.
Similarly, I would venture the Bell/CTV decision to air SunNews from
Launch to Election despite the fee dispute was instrumental in this
week's outcome.
May 3 2011
~ Again this year Trendlines has rated the 14 international efforts
comprising our 14-model Avg daily tracking chart. As in 2008,
best-in-class was our own Antweiler-based projection! The
Scoreboard includes each model's success for the
2011/2008/2007/2006/2004 Federal & Ontario elections.
click chart for table,
full discussion & blog of our 4 Federal campaigns...
Select Saudi Arabia Crude Supply Targets: McPeaksters = $29/barrel
April 19th delayed FreeVenue public
release of Dec 26 2010 guidance @ our MemberVenue
~ It's time to update the Kingdom's recognized Supply Targets. The efforts
by Sadad al Husseini and theOilDrum's Stuart Staniford & Ace (Joker) have all
been stymied to some degree by OPEC mandated quota restrictions. This is
exactly why it was decided back in February 2009 to depict my Peak
Scenario-2500's data for Maximum Sustainable Capacity ... not Supply.
The PS-2500 continues to project
2009 as Peak Year for MSC. The Kingdom's 2.5% Underlying Decline Rate
Observed (UDRO) makes it almost impossible for any future announced megaprojects
to have the magnitude necessary to breach last year's 12.0-mbd high. Based
on yesterday's Linearization update,
our estimate of KSA URR has been trimmed to 192-Gb (from 212).
The Husseini Outlook takes a
similar view with its production high of only 11-mbd. The Ace (joker?)
over @ TOD forecasts Supply going south after 2011. Meanwhile, the
infamous high-case worst-cast scenarios by theOilDrum's Stuart Staniford
continue to be emblematic of the agenda-driven rhetoric, fabrication of data,
misinformation and mass hysteria at that place. Since 2002, McPeakster
websites & pundits have been the best thing to ever come along for oil sector
shareholders & NOCs. Daily contributions by the McDoomers within their
fraternity provide impetus for the $29/barrel fear premium (above fundamentals)
in today's crude price...
Saudi Arabia Supply Outlook ...
an update
April 19th delayed FreeVenue public
release of Dec 26 2010 guidance @ our MemberVenue
~ It's been almost two years since Saudi Arabia has announced any guidance on
new megaprojects or downside surprises to idle capacity, so we thought instead a
progress report would be timely.
First thing we
noticed was that the OPEC mandated quota restrictions have kept Supply below
target for the third consecutive year.
Our position that 2009 will be Peak Year for Maximum Sustainable Capacity
(12.0-mbd) still stands.
Yesterday's
URR Linearization update
re-confirms the Kingdom appears to be inflating their total resource base.
Last time, we revealed their claim of 900-Gb was more like 212-Gb. Our new
analysis infers 192-Gb.
All the announced
megaprojects are still underway. Due to the global recession, final
commissioning of Manifa may be stretched out two more years to 2015.
At
this time the preservation of Surplus Capacity reconciled with new construction
would indicate the Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO) is no greater than
the 2.5% calculated in 2009.
Because global production at the end of 2011 should be very near today's 87-mbd
pace, there appears to be little prospect for any significant increased flow
from the present 8.2-mbd Supply tally.
click a chart
to visit our Saudi Arabia site...
URR/EUR Highlights
Oil Initially in Place (OIIP):
19-Tb.
URR avg:
3,991-Gb (doubled since 1995)
Remaining Resource: 2,731-Gb (doubled since Y2k)
Inferred Depletion:
32%
Remaining Resource/Annual Production Ratio: 87 (record low:
44 in 1995)
Proved
Reserves: 1,268-Gb (doubled since 1978) & growing by 38-Gb/yr
Past
Consumption: 1,260-Gb (to 2010/12/31)
April
18th delayed FreeVenue public release of Dec 25 2010 guidance @ our
MemberVenue ~ Today's compilation update introduces a URR study by
Adam Brandt & Alexander Farrell of the USA. It updates
figures from
BP, Campbell, EIA, Husseini, IEA, Koppelaar, Laherrère, OGJ, Total,
World Oil & my own Hutter
Peak
Scenario-2500.
URR Growth Rate
Chart#2 compares the
growth rate of the 22-model Avg with OGJ & BP. It is seen the
recent high-price regime fuelled favourable economics of previously
thought fringe contingent resources. Discovery, development
and technology advancements (especially of non-conventionals)
fuelled a growth pace of 136-Gb/yr (4.9%) after 1996. This far
surpasses URR's growth of 30-Gb/yr (2.3%) from 1957-1995.
Unsustainable crude
prices ($131/barrel high in July 2008) drove discoveries,
exploration, and conversion of sub-commercial (contingent) resources
over to the economic side of the ledger. But, sub $90 pricing
has been a real dampener of that headiness. Viewed via the
3-yr rolling average of the 22-models, additions to URR peaked @
290-Gb in 2008, the growth rate slipping to 165-Gb in 2010.
The chart shows annual
augments to URR have exceeded Annual Consumption (32-Gb in 2010)
since 1997. Proven reserves grew by 38-Gb/yr last decade and
total 1,268-Gb today. This explains the hiatus from heavy
exploration over the last two decades. The sector's supply
chain is founded on a Proved Reserve / Annual Production ratio of 40
(years). Having attained that threshold in the early 80's, it
has been necessary to only add just over annual consumption to hold
this ratio steady.
click a chart for full discussion,
tables & related graphs @ our URR site...
Linearization Method:
URR/EUR Comparisons
Geo/Tech Method:
4,900-Gb
All Liquids
6,977-Gb
2,000-Gb
Regular
Conventional Oil
2,059-Gb
290-Gb
Saudi Arabian Crude
900-Gb
285-Gb
NGL-GTL-Ref/Gain
1,660-Gb
125-Gb
Bitumen/X-Heavy-CTL-Kerogen
3,023-Gb
170-Gb
Deep Sea & Arctic
235-Gb
April 16th delayed
FreeVenue public release of Dec 24 2010 guidance @ our MemberVenue ~
Linearization analysis is a guiding counterweight to our
geology/technology based Estimates of Ultimate Recoverable Resource
(URR/EUR). When compared, All Liquids succumbs to a
2,077-Gb differential, mostly attributed to Bitumen, GTL, CTL &
Kerogen not yet reflecting their potential flows. OTOH, this
shortfall is somewhat mitigated by the tainted BTL premium
influence. Biofuels-to-liquids are not included in our URR
tally, but are indeed reflected in All Liquids production
data.
Based on these
linearizations, the world won't run out of light sweet crude (RCO) until Year
2067 and there's enuf of the other stuff to take us to Year 2202.
All Liquids
represents 11 major streams: Regular Conventional Crude, NGL &
Refinery Gain; and the non-conventionals: GTL (gas-to-liquid), Deep
Sea, Arctic, Bitumen, X-Heavy, CTL (coal-to-liquid), Kerogen & BTL
(biofuels-to-liquid)
April 12 2011 delayed FreeVenue public release of Dec 21 2010 guidance
@ our MemberVenue ~
Today's
update adds Colin Campbell's 2010 Outlook. Authored in July,
it re-confirms his position that All Liquids peaked @ 85-mbd in 2008
and is founded on a 2,434-Gb URR. Our chart tracks all the
production profile revisions over his career. Its forecasts of
Peak Year have ranged from 1989 to 2012. In fact, December
marks the 21st anniversary of Campbell's initial All Liquids
declaration that oil had Peaked. To be accurate ... a
sub-peak. In December 1989, he declared that the All
Liquids production had reached its physical limits @ 66-mbd and
would never again attain the 67-mbd Peak of 1979.
Campbell's estimates for Peak Rate spans from that virgin call of a
66-mbd sub-peak in 1989 to his 2008 forecast of a 97-mbd peak in
2010. His underlying All Liquids URR estimates range
from 1575-Gb (1989) to 2900-Gb (2002).
Our
last last two chart revisions have excluded Campbell's 1991, 1996,
1997 & 1998 projections as we have determined those studies forecast
Regular Conventional Oil ... not All Liquids. His
current (2010) forecast for RCO can be compared to the only three
other such projections for light sweet crude at our
Scenarios
venue.
The highlighted years
of distinction are: 2008 (highest peak 97mbd), 2002 (2900-Gb URR
high), 2010 (current update), 2004 (Colin Campbell's dark days
call: 80mbd peak coming in 2006) & 1989 (Campbell's initial
66-mbd scenario which declared that All Liquids would never breach
the 1979 record).
Because the Depletion
Model newsletter graphic ends in 2050, it was not apparent that five
of his early All Liquids projections failed to exhaust
Campbell's designated URR. The 200-yr outlook resolution view
of our chart exposes the methodology errors of the Depletion Model
in 1999, Y2k, 2002, 2003 & 2004 for which we have corrected via
compensating plateaus or "doglegs". In short, these
particular production profiles employed peaks that were too low
and/or decline rates that were too harsh.
click chart
for full discussion @ our Peak Oil history site...
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recent free charts ... please click a graph or the
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discussion ... or for $10/month join & get the updated
versions!
I'm pleased
to relay to TRENDLiners this past Autumn 75% of visitors were
International (117 nations: most from USA, UK,
Australia, Argentina, Italy, France, Japan, Spain, Germany & Austria)
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