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elect ~
MP Riding
Projection
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in post-Debates free-fall 'til Launch of SunNews
elect ~ So, who had the best of 14 seat projection models this year?
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Scroll down formonthly updates of the 36 FreeVenue
charts (Economics, Peak Oil, Climate Change & Elections)
Debt
Wall
- Massive Deficits will induce 2024 Austerity Crisis & Severe
Recession
June 2nd
delayed FreeVenue public release of March 2nd MemberVenue guidance ~
Along with traditional American macro forecasts, the
TRENDLines Debt Wall
chart had
typically since 2009 depicted US Gov't Structural Deficits
rising to $10 trillion Deficit (19% of GDP) & its federal Debt
rising to $125 trillion (235% of GDP) by 2040 if Congress pursued
its path to preserve long-term entitlements. There was always
a caveat this journey was unsustainable and thus someday there would
either be a voluntary (or involuntary) intervention. Credit
must go the Tea Party movement
for bringing discussion of this fiscal irresponsibility to the
mainstream.
This
looming fiscal crisis has been a focus for Trendlines Research
for over a decade. It is inconceivable the Treasury Dept
can continue massive Deficit related borrowing without impunity.
So it is with great pleasure this week I am unveiling enhanced
versions of the
TRENDLines Debt Wall
& TRI USA
models which consider empirical data to project when the US will
cross the tipping point for its excessive sovereign issuances
and project the macro consequences.
The
analysis suggests this is just the start for what is certainly
to become monthly incremental downgrades thru the A, B & C
series of ratings. It is forecast the 10-yr bond's present
2% yield will double by 2020 and hit six percent (and a "CC"
rating) in 2023 upon attaining a critical mass of ugly metrics.
The $26 trillion gross federal debt will feature a 119% Debt/GDP
ratio and the record $1.6 trillion Deficit sports a 7.1%
Deficit/GDP.
click chart for
Debt Wall
guidance...
TRI ~ 2024 USA Treasuries Crisis will have Minor Impact in Canada
June 1st delayed FreeVenue public release of
March 1st MemberVenue
guidance ~ Traditional American macro forecasts have typically shown
its Structural Deficits lead to a 2040 $10 trillion Deficit (19% of
GDP) & a $125 trillion Federal Debt (235% of GDP). This
scenario has always been understood to be unsustainable and is the
basis for long-term entitlement reform discussions among their
politicos over the past two years.
This looming fiscal
crisis has been a focus for Trendlines Research for over a decade as
it is inconceivable their Treasury Dept can continue massive
borrowings without impunity. So it is with great pleasure this
week I am unveiling recalibrated versions of the TRENDLines
Debt Wall
& TRI USA models which reflect empirical tipping points for
excessive sovereign borrowing.
For America, the first run reveals Treasury bonds will face annual
incremental downgrades leading to B & C ratings and 7% yields;
an eventual reluctance to borrow; harsh austerity measures by
Congress to re-balance its Budget; a return to high
unemployment and a multi-year Severe Recession commencing in 2024.
Canada does not come out of a downturn of its major trading partner
unscathed. TRI projects a 2024 Technical Recession assuming
completion of present free trade agreement negotiations and proposed
coastal petroleum pipelines.
The
TRENDLines Recession Indicator
monitors two measures of the Canadian economy: Real GDP (TRI:
the conventional gauge of economic activity but filtered for
reporting period noise) & Structural GDP (TRIX: a measure of
economic growth filtered of fiscal policy Deficit & Surplus
influence).
The model suggests Canada has long emerged from a Structural
Technical Recession with sufficient critical mass to sustain positive economic
growth w/o the assistance of fiscal policy stimulus but faces the
long-term headwind of an ongoing realty bubble correction requiring
diminishing accommodative monetary policy `til 2018.
TRI
StatCan released data today inferring
December's (Q4) Real GDP grew at a 0.6% rate, compared to the TRI
inference of a 1.3% pace when filtered for reporting period noise. TRI gauges
February Real GDP was 2.1%, up
from 1.6% in January. TRI's measure of animal-spirits-plus projects
a 2.1% Q1 & 0.8% Q2.
TRIX
The
preceding discussion is typical of conventional Real GDP narrative
where one identifies the symptoms of an economy ... not its
underlying problems if any.
The genuine health of the Canadian economy is best
observed when viewed thru a prism which
filters Federal Gov't Deficit & Surplus influence.
Accomplished via fiscal multipliers, the
resulting metric of Structural GDP is depicted in the chart
as TRIX (red line).
click chart for
outlook table & guidance...
USA TRI:
Massive Structural Deficits to Trigger 2024 Severe Recession
May 28th delayed
FreeVenue public release of Feb 28th MemberVenue guidance ~
The
Trendlines Debt Wall
model has determined by 2023 the federal govt's Structural Deficit
will rise to $1.7 trillion (7% of GDP). Servicing the $26
trillion Federal Debt (118% of GDP) will cost $1.1 trillion.
Finding these metrics to be unsustainable and with interest payments
already crowding out federal program spending, TRI concludes the
international investment community will find these metrics to be
unsustainable and will demand 7% yields on long-term Treasury bonds.
Borrowing realities will force Congress to impose harsh austerity
measures amounting to 50% of each of the next four Budget Deficits.
This action will trigger a Severe Recession in 2024.
Today's update reveals the American economy has made steady progress
since high petroleum prices induced a business cycle pause in April
2011.
The
TRENDLines Recession Indicator
monitors two measures of the USA economy: Structural GDP (TRIX) & Real GDP
(TRI).
The model suggests the US has been mired in a Structural Greater
Depression since early 2007 but this underlying reality has been
masked by five massive trillion dollar federal Deficits.
TRI
This
month's guidance again conflicts significantly with today's announcement
by BEA its second
estimate for December (Q4) Real GDP is a mere 0.1%, a number likely to
face upward revision when compared to the 1.6% pace gauged by
TRI.
February GDP is assessed @ 1.9%, while TRI's measure of
animal-spirits-plus projects a 1.6% Q1 & 1.7% Q2.
TRIX
The
above discussion is typical of conventional Real GDP narrative.
But the extent of the malaise of the American economy is best
comprehended when economic activity is viewed thru a prism which
unveils the influence of the Federal Gov't Deficits (and occasional Surpluses).
This is accomplished via the filter of fiscal multipliers.
Trendlines Research has been tracking the
resulting metric (Structural GDP) since Sept/2012 depicted
as TRIX (red line) in the chart.
Headwinds
Factors contributing to short/medium/long term weakness of
the RGDP & SGDP outlooks continue to be: (a) political
dysfunction; (b) stubbornly high unemployment; (c)
rising international inflation & interest rates; & (d)
structural deficits and sovereign debt rating downgrades.
The threat from residual high petroleum costs was finally eliminated
last month.
click a chart for
outlook table, guidance & research notes...
TRENDLines Peak Oil Depletion Tier-1 Scenarios:
May 27th delayed FreeVenue public release of
Feb 27th MemberVenue guidance ~
Today's release updates only my own Tier-1 Outlook (Hutter Peak Scenario-2500)
& the
Worst Case Scenario
Consensus based on
14-model Tier-1 avg:
Peak Oil:
98 Mbd in 2029
Post-peak Decline Rate 'til 2050:
1.0 %/yr avg
The year 50% of URR/EUR has been extracted: 2043
The year flow retreats below today's
90-Mbd: 2043
The year flow drops to ½ of today's 89-Mbd: 2085
The year we virtually run out of oil:
2296 (less than 8-Mbd &
mostly BTL)
URR/EUR:
4,305 Gb (1,319-Gb consumed to 2012/12/31 excl 6-Gb BTL)
Proved Reserves to be consumed from 2013 'til 2029 Peak:
541 Gb
Today's Global Depletion:
31% of URR (Net Depletion Rate: 1.1%/yr)
click chart for
Tier-2 & many more graphs, tables & guidance...
Feb 26 2013
monthly update ~
Realty Bubbles Monitor
Overpricing of Median/Avg Home in Jan/2013
Bubble Today
price rise/fall from same season
last year
Bubble @ Peak
$177,000 & 74%
down $3,600
Australia
$249k
& 137% (2007)
$
59,000 & 20%
up $2,600
Canada
$89k
& 33% (2011)
$ 3,000 &
2%
up $17,500
USA
$75k
& 52% (2005)
£ 84,000 & 108%
down £1,200
UK
£111k
& 157% (2007)
May 26th
delayed FreeVenue public release of Feb 26th MemberVenue guidance ~
Comparing this past Winter to last year, the national median/avg
price is down in Australia & the UK and up in Canada & the USA.
The first three are generally in multi-year realty bubble
corrections as measured by variance from the long-term trend of
their Price/Family-Income ratio. Each of these nations faces a
prolonged stifling of economic activity due to the profound assault
on consumer disposable income by the incredible weight of home
mortgage and rent payments. The fundamentals remain in place
for Technical Recessions in all three jurisdictions.
Home values are most at risk in the UK
where the avg home is overpriced by 108%. As such, its economy
has
suffered GDP contractions in five of the last seven
quarters. The Australian
median home is currently 74% overpriced. Due to its proximity
to Asia, growth has been positive but GDP has never exceeded 1.4%
over the last two years. Canada's housing
bubble was the last to burst (Aug/2011) making it to 32%, compared
to 55% in 1989 and followed by a lost decade. Today the avg home here is
still 20% overpriced, sells for 2.0 x's its American counterpart and
appears to be playing out a similar scenario.
The Canadian economy has suffered no less than eight monthly GDP contractions
since Sept/2010 and the
TRENDLines Recession Indicator
currently projects annual economic growth will not exceed
2.0% on the way to 2020. Canada's Great Recession
was only 10 months, but the feat of a relatively short duration was
not accomplished by clever fiscal management but rather by Gov't
inaction to prolong the housing bubble whilst other jurisdictions
were correcting.
Conversely, the USA
median price resumed its secular uptrend (March 2012) and is up over seventeen thousand dollars from the same
season last year. In May 2012, Gary
Shilling made made the case USA homes will drop another 20%, whilst in March 2012,
Robert Shiller proclaimed it could be five decades 'til American
homes re-attain their old highs. I cannot share their pessimism.
My analysis reveals both Existing Home & New Home prices have
completed a classic return-to-the-mean correction. New Homes will
break the 2007 annual record this year and Existing Homes should set a new high in
2023.
This price escalation
will occur despite an inevitable rise in interest rates.
The
USA TRI model forecasts FOMC will finally commence
normalization of its key rates in mid 2015. This should result in a
2% rise in 5-yr mortgage rates by late 2016.
International interest rates will likely rise ahead of the
USA and this external influence may accelerate the
housing price correction in Australia, Canada & UK. After
Canada's first realty bubble, its correction was a mere
-6%. It is probable these three
jurisdictions can expect a similar scenario rather than
the rapid 25% plunge witnessed in the USA.
click a chart for
4-nation Bubble guidance & research notes ...
May 25th
delayed FreeVenue public release of Feb 25th MemberVenue
guidance ~monthly update of Freddy Hutter's
Peak Scenario-2500 Oil Depletion
Model
6,911 Gb
All Liquids URR/EUR
2013/2/25
101-Mbd PEAK 2030
2013 flow: 90-Mbd
2,001
Gb
Regular
Conventional Oil
69-mbd 2005
63 Mbd
557Gb
Bitumen/X-Heavy
16-mbd 2050
3
Mbd
1,679 Gb
NGL-GTL-Ref/Gain
17-mbd 2041
11 Mbd
175 Gb
Shale & Kerogen
7-mbd
2046
1 Mbd
262 Gb
Deep Sea & Arctic
15-mbd 2031
10 Mbd
2,237 Gb
CTL
14-mbd 2046
0 Mbd
1,319 Gb PAST
(excl
6-Gb
BTL;
to 2012/12/31)
+2 Mbd BTL
Highlights:
PEAK OIL:
100-Mbd
in 2030
Post-Peak Decline Rate:
0.5%/yr
avg 'til 2050
2013 Capacity: 95-Mbd incl global Surplus Capacity of
5-Mbd
URR/EUR: 6,911-Gb
(consumed to 2012/12/31: 1,319-Gb excl 6-Gb BTL)
The year flow retreats below today's 90-Mbd:
2043 ... & ½ of today: 2100
The year 50% of URR consumed:
2092
The year All Liquids
(excl BTL) runs out:
2496 ... & Light Sweet Crude (RCO):
2100
Underlying Decline Rate Observed
2013: 3.6%
(3.22 Mbd) of
global All
Liquids
click graph for
more PS-2500 charts, tables & guidance...
The
resolution in PS-2500's Year 2035 Outlook
provides
a view of the two competing
All Liquids forecast camps and the resultant "scary
wedge". Both assume
5.0-Mbd Surplus Capacity & Underlying
Decline Rate Observed (UDRO) rising to 4.8% from 3.6% today:
(a) First, an ultra conservative
(low) trajectory with an apparent 92-Mbd Peak in 2015, declining to 20-Mbd by 2035 (hashed lime line).
As a
Worst Case Scenario, this projection assumes the oil sector will
develop no further production capacity in the future other than the announced-to-date MegaProjects.
(b)
Second, the more plausible (high) production profile where new
Megaprojects will avg 3.9 Mbd/yr thru 2035 (4.3-Mbd/yr current trend),
culminating with 101-Mbd Peak Oil in 2030.
Its optimistic trajectory is down from past estimates as high as 121-Mbd
'cuz the Consumption growth rate has waned since 2004 due to
demand destruction associated with triple-digit prices.
In
practical terms, recent history (since 1970) has shown the pessimistic projection
line (hashed lime line) incrementally rises thru time to meet the
past production trend line (solid lime line).
In short, the Scary Wedge as shown has been as ominous for
over four decades but the start point constantly gets pushed back to
"next year".
2012
Underlying Decline Rate Observed:
3.6%
(3.22 Mbd)
of annual global
All Liquids
Flow from global
New Capacity in 2012 was 4.3-Mbd. 3.1-Mbd of this addressed last year's loss via
Underlying Decline Observed (UDO) and the balance raised capacity to
a new record high of 93.6-Mbd.
McPeaksters were stunned to learn year-end global Surplus Capacity
remained an incredible 4.6-Mbd despite their having predicted (again) it would be totally exhausted
should production rise for another year.
In March 2009,
the
Peak Scenario-2500
model discovered global UDO has been a significant
factor since way back to 1970. Albeit 120-Mbd of facilities were built
over the past four decades, capacity had only increased by 43-Mbd.
In short, an avg 2.9% of All Liquids annual production had been lost
to UDO.
Chart#4
illustrates long-term global annual UDO (red line), but it is
the Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO) inset featuring
% change which is most instructive: UDRO
exhibits a tendency to ebb and flow. Further, these cyclical (8.5-yr)
crests correlate with all six recent American Recessions. The crests appear to reflect reduced EOR activity
during economic contractions, no doubt due to capital & cash flow
challenges amid a reduced Demand environment.
UDRO's highest annual surge
(bold red line)
was 6.3% of global All Liquids
production in 1984. The 4.3% & 2.9% crests during the 1991 & 2001 Recessions were followed
by a 2.1% UDRO trough in 2006 - then 3.0% in 2007. The
2007-2013 Structural Greater Depression setback (3.6%) seems to mimic
the belated cycle top in the wake of the back-to-back nature
of the 1980's Structural Severe Recession. The loss factor is expected continue its
secular uptrend, rising to 5.4% by 2050. My study of
USA business cycle recessions (TRI-USA) suggests
UDRO crests may
occur in 2017, 2026, 2034 & 2043; but
with a diminishing effect as the USA becomes less dominant on the global
scene. China GDP will surpass the USA in 2020.
Trendlines Research analysis reveals from 1970 to 2009, 77-Mbd of
new facilities addressed UDO & 43-Mbd raised Extraction Capacity
from 48 in 1969 to 91-Mbd. In short, the oil sector has been
adding 3-Mbd/yr ... or a new Saudi Arabia every three years for four
decades! On the horizon, PS-2500 forecasts 91-Mbd of
facilities will be required by the 2030 PEAK: 15 to increase
Capacity (91 in 2009 to 106-Mbd) and 76-Mbd to address UDO loss over
those 21 years. Added to the 77-Mbd to cover 1970-2009 decline
loss, a total 153-Mbd of Capacity will have been dedicated to this
loss phenomenon over the six decade period.
Barrel Meter
:
Oil Stress Premium surges to $18/barrel
May 24th
delayed FreeVenue public release of Feb 24th MemberVenue guidance ~
USA Refiner Acquisition Crude price averaged $100/barrel in January (up $8
from
previous month) and is currently 6%
($6) above its $94 Fundamentals Fair Value.
Barrel
Meter model
analysis reveals RACrude returned to equilibrium in June
2012 continued improving fundamentals should see price retreat to $86 by 2015Q1, followed by a resumption of the secular uptrend mainly
forced by a 5% annual increase in Extraction Costs (down from 14%
last decade).
Historic
volatility suggests at any time the Stress Premium components (geopolitical
issues, weather events or disaster) could produce severe but temporary spikes.
The
Gas
Pump &
Barrel Meter models
both predict any such black swan
event
would be constrained by the same Price Spike Ceiling which firmly arrested
the 2008 price run @ $129/barrel ($4.11/gal pump).
The PSC represents a definitive Petroleum/GDP ratio where certain demand destruction feedbacks attain critical mass. As
happened in the Summer of 2008, Demand and Price are reversed as alternative
energies, substitution and conservation measures are pursued.
This upper limit is
$154 ($4.54/gal pump) today.
(USA Refiner
Acquisition Crude price is
the
volume-weighted avg of three dozen domestic and imported grades and blends
which
range from a
14% discount for Western Canada Select to a 16% premium for Malaysia
Tapis Light. At this time, RAC is generally $5 higher than
WTI.)
Four
definitive Oil-Cost/GDP Ratios
The
natural business-as-usual production scenario would normally unfold
with an All Liquids GEOLOGIC PEAK of
101-Mbd in 2030.
But this course is threatened to be truncated by the very real
prospect of PEAK DEMAND. Starting in 2004, the long-term trend for the growth rate of
global Consumption began to wane. The onset of occasional triple-digit crude
prices is
causing demand destruction. Consumers, commerce & institutions are
substituting and conserving. This led to an unexpected OECD
consumption peak in 2005. I have found rising petroleum prices
have
economic consequences which are indeed predictable at five definitive petroleum/GDP
ratios. These invisible lines-in-the-sand generally rise and
fall in time with
GDP. Three have global implications and two are unique to the
USA.
2040 Target
~ Rising prices will inspire many forms of demand destruction but not to the degree
where the natural Geologic Peak (101-Mbd 2030) is truncated by PEAK DEMAND.
The model suggests RAC price will not
permanently surpass the
PEAK DEMAND
Barrier 'til 2035.
Ever-rising costs for the marginal barrel
continue as the main forcing for the secular uptrend as
Extraction Cost rises to $166/barrel. One can
expect mini-spikes to occur
whenever
Surplus Capacity falls below the critical level of 4-Mbd.
Based on North America's historic 8.5-yr business cycle, the model
builds in price softness during potential USA economic Recessions
in 2017 & 2026 & 2034. Admittedly this conflicts with the
Trendlines Recession Indicator's 2035
horizon which does not yet detect contraction events. In any case, it appears deteriorating share of global
GDP means American downturns will have
decreasing adverse effects on
worldwide GDP and RAC price.
The Barrel Meter
projects nominal RAC price is on
a journey to $336/barrel
- the 2040 target.
the Gas Pump
~ Gasoline
en route to $2.95/gal
May 23rd delayed
FreeVenue public release of Feb 23rd MemberVenue guidance ~
All-grades retail gasoline averaged $3.39/gal in January ... up 1¢
from the previous monthly avg. After the brief Q1 surge,
gasoline price should settle back well below the Light Vehicle Sales
Barrier. In the absence of this particular headwind, the
opportunity exists for a robust rebound of auto manufacturing/sales
for the foreseeable future. The
Barrel Meter
model reveals crude oil finally re-achieved price equilibrium in
June 2012 after over three years of frothy exuberance and suggests
an
environment of improving crude fundamentals lies ahead. As
such, pump price is projected to
slide to $2.95/gal by Feb/2015 ... then resume its secular uptrend.
PRICE COMPONENTS
As seen in the table above, last month's avg Retail Price of $3.39/gal
is comprised of $2.79 Wholesale refinery product & $o.60 Margin.
In turn, Margin is made up of $o.41 Taxes & $o.19 Profit.
Historically, this compares to 54¢
Margin, 42¢
Taxes & 13¢
Profit way back
in Y2k.
Crack Spread
(diff betw wholesale & contract crude) was
$0.42/gal ($17.63/barrel) in January. The raw crude
component ($2.37/gal) continues to be volatile, particularly its
Stress Premium price subcomponent (comprised of geopolitical issues, weather
events
and disasters).
Barrel Meter
analysis reveals this factor added 44¢/gal in January ... down from 72¢ at the
height of the MENA/Libya episode. Debasement of the USDollar currently adds
45¢/gal to pump prices, down from 58¢ two yeas ago. The tightness of Surplus Capacity
enabling the Iran
sanctions added 32¢ & general Speculation/Hedging activity 14¢/gal
to last month's gas prices.
click chart for more graphs, table & full
guidance at the Gas Pump
venue...
USA
"Real"Unemployment Rate
stable @ 14.4% in January
May 1st delayed
FreeVenue public release of Feb 1st MemberVenue guidance ~ Today's
headline USA Unemployment Rate for January may have ticked up to
7.9% (U-3),
but the dire state of the jobless is better reflected by the REAL
Unemployment Rate ... 14.4%. The latter U-6 BLS
rate has been stable since November and is significantly
below the Great Recession induced high of 17.2%
set Oct/2009. That said, today's rate is not even 1/3 the way
back to the pre-Recession low of 7.9% in Dec/2006. To the 12.3
million U-3 unemployed, the U-6
calculation adds the marginally attached: 8.0 million
involuntary part-timers (economically necessitated), 0.8 million
discouraged souls (no longer looking for work as no apparent jobs)
and 1.6 million saddled with school or family responsibilities.
If there is good news, it is the economy is finally again producing
the 104,000 new jobs/month required to hold the Unemployment Rate
from rising considering natural growth of the labour force via
graduating students and immigration less retirements.
click chart for
guidance...
TRENDLines Peak Oil Depletion Tier-2 Scenarios:
April
29th delayed FreeVenue public release of
Jan 29th MemberVenue guidance ~
Today's
revision downgrades the 2009 CERA outlook by Peter Jackson from
Tier-1.
The CERA
outlooks by Peter Jackson were introduced to our presentation
in late 2005 and have consistently been the most optimistic of the
Tier-1 scenarios. Unfortunately the analysis methodology
requires updates at least every three years and as such the 2009
version has been downgraded today to Tier-2 status. Earnestly
looking forward to an update...
TRI Suggests
China GDP is on the Rise...
April 18th
delayed FreeVenue public release of
Jan 18th MemberVenue guidance ~ Today's
Trendlines Recession Indicator
quarterly update reveals Chinese economic activity has been on the
rise for the last six months. Both the
Central Peoples Govt's official GDP figures and TRI's gauge of
baseline Real GDP re-confirm that media & pundit speculation
over the past two years that China's economy had been facing a
business cycle hard-landing was completely unsubstantiated.
Using conventional Q/Q reporting methodology on the CPG data, the Real GDP growth rate
slipped to no worse than 6.0% (March 2012) while TRI's monthly
monitor assessed a low of 7.8% in July 2012. This hiatus is
attributed to engagement by authorities in anti-inflation
activity.
China's official data
released today infers Q4 Real GDP was 8.2% (Q/Q), down from an 8.8% pace in Q3
but vastly improved from the 6.0% in Q1. Conversely, TRI's
monthly gauge of economic activity found December (Q4) to be a
robust 9.4%
(Q/Q), up from an 8.2% pace Sept (Q3). TRI's
measure of animal-spirits-plus projects GDP is en route to a robust
9.9% in February. From that juncture, China-specific headwinds
should gradually dampen GDP growth rates to an ultimate annual low
of 8.0% in 2020, down from a projected 9.5% for 2013. At this
time no soft-landing of the current business cycle appears in the
visible horizon.
click chart for
guidance...
Linearization Method:
URR/EUR Comparisons (2012/12/26)
Geo/Tech Method:
3,600-Gb
All Liquids
6,895-Gb
2,001-Gb
Regular
Conventional Oil
1,999-Gb
110-Gb
Bitumen/X-Heavy CTL-Kerogen-Shale
2,969-Gb
180-Gb
Deep Sea & Arctic
262-Gb
270-Gb
Saudi Arabian Crude
900-Gb
290-Gb
NGL-GTL-Ref/Gain
1,680-Gb
click chart for
full guidance at URR/EUR venue...
Mar 26th delayed
FreeVenue public release of Dec 26th MemberVenue guidance ~
Linearization analysis is a guiding counterweight to
geology/technology based Estimates of Ultimate Economical
Recoverable Resource (URR/EUR). When compared, All
Liquids succumbs to a 3,295-Gb differential, mostly attributable to
Bitumen, CTL, GTL & Kerogen not yet reflecting their massive potential flows. OTOH, this shortfall is somewhat mitigated by the taint of
biofuels-to-liquid
influence. BTL is not included in the URR tally, but is indeed
reflected in All Liquids production data. Based on
these linearizations, the world won't run out of light sweet crude
(RCO) until Year 2103.
Regular Conventional Oil Scenarios
2030: Colin Campbell (38-Mbd) vs Freddy Hutter (52-Mbd)
March
24th delayed FreeVenue public release of Dec 24th MemberVenue guidance
~ Over the years, there have been only 4 modellers worldwide who
have published long term production profiles for
Regular Conventional Oil ... the light sweet crude: Albert Bartlett
(USA), Colin Campbell (Ireland), M King Hubbert (USA) &
TRENDLines' own Freddy Hutter (Yukon Canada).
RCO
extraction peaked in May 2005 @ 69-mbd and it appears the midpoint of its
(2,005-Gb) URR/EUR was crossed several months thereafter (Oct/2006). RCO
production declined at an annual rate of 2.2% from 2006-2009 to
63-Mbd, but has since been in plateau. 2012 extraction was
a 64-Mbd pace. Campbell's 2011 Depletion Model continues to extend RCO's
dramatic 2.2%/yr post-peak decline rate thru to 2030.
It also increased RCO's URR by 84-Gb to 2,047-Gb ... a career high
estimate for Colin.
Conversely, the Hutter
Peak Scenario-2500
(the sole active model) has trimmed last year's URR estimate by
another 33-Gb
to 2,005-Gb. While Campbell forecasts the annual flow rate
will deteriorate to 38-Mbd by 2030, Hutter takes the position
52-Mbd is more probable. On the longer term, whereas
Campbell predicts the annual Decline Rate softens after 2050,
Hutter sees major resource constraint after 2066.
As a 72% component of
All Liquids, the short-term demise of Regular Conventional
Oil will determine whether Peak Oil is imminent or has another
18 years to play out.
The
PS-2500 model determined in 2008 the steep RCO decline (2.2% 2006-2009)
was not the result of rapid depletion but rather a mirage masked by
shifts in global Surplus Capacity. As such, Hutter has been
stalwart in his position RCO extraction had entered a 62-Mbd
plateau which will hold 'til 2023, thereby forming a solid foundation for non-conventionals to take
All Liquids to ever increasing heights. With light sweet crude
rising to 64-Mbd in 2012, the universe appears to be unfolding as it should...
click chart for
RCO coverage at the Scenarios venue...
Trendlines Peak Oil Depletion Archive of
Invalidated Outlooks ~
Dec 30th delayed FreeVenue public release of
Sept 30th MemberVenue guidance ~
Today's
revision: (a) upgrades to Tier-2 status the formerly Invalidated Outlook
by Jean Laherrère; & (c) downgrades to Invalidated
status (from Tier-2) the Rembrandt Koppelaar 2009 Outlook.
On a sadder note,
another McPeakster effort has bit the dust. The stale-dated
Rembrandt Koppelaar 2009 Outlook has predicted an 89-Mbd Peak in
2014, but another stalwart year by the oil sector saw that milepost
achieved this year already. The scenario has been downgraded
to Invalidated status (from Tier-2).
click chart for
Tier-2, Tier-1, Conventional Oil & many more graphs, tables &
discussion...
Global
GDP:
Year 2007 5.4%
Year 2008
2.8%
Year 2009 -0.6%
> Year 2010
5.3% Year 2011
3.9%
Year 2012 3.5%(pending)
Year 2013 3.9% (est)>
2008Q1
2008Q2
2008Q3
2008Q4
2009Q1
2009Q2
2009Q3
2009Q4
2010Q1
2010Q2
2010Q3
2010Q4
2011Q1
2011Q2
2011Q3
2011Q4
2012Q1
2012Q2
2012Q3
3.2%
1.7%
-0.3%
-7.0%
-5.8%
4.3%
5.4%
5.3%
6.6%
5.1%
4.0%
4.5%
3.7%
3.2%
3.6%
2.6%
3.6%
2.9%
3.9%
est
G-20 nations in Technical or Severe Recession:
USA
21% of Global GDP
USA
Japan Germany France Italy
38% of Global GDP
USA
Japan Germany France Italy
38% of Global GDP
USA
Japan Germany
UK
France Italy Mexico
43% of Global GDP
USA Japan Germany UK
Russia France Brazil Italy Canada Turkey
Mexico SouthAfrica
53% of Global GDP
USA
Japan Germany UK Russia France
Brazil
Italy Canada Turkey Mexico SouthAfrica
53% of Global GDP
UK Russia
Italy Canada
SouthAfrica Turkey
27%
of Global GDP
UK
Turkey
Russia
8%
of Global GDP
Russia
3%
of Global GDP
Russia
3%
of Global GDP
nil
Japan
8%
of Global GDP
Japan
8%
of Global GDP
Japan
8%
of Global GDP
Japan Italy
9%
of Global GDP
Japan UK Italy
12%
of Global GDP
UK Italy
6%
of Global GDP
UK Italy
represents 6%
of Global GDP
pending:
UK Italy
And Not in
Recession in 2012Q2:USA, China,
Japan, Germany,
France,
Brazil,
Canada,
Russia,>India, Australia,
Mexico,
South Korea, Turkey,
Indonesia, Saudi Arabia,
South Africa &
Argentina >(in
order of GDP & comprising
59% of worldwide GDP; excludes 20th
membership, courtesy to EU). The remaining 160 nations
comprise 35% of worldwide GDP
(data source: IMF)
Nov 7th
~ Conversion of final polling data had inferred a 293-205 Obama lead
after the final weekend and extrapolation of the general trend
suggested a subdued 277-261 Obama victory. The apparent
332-206 final result (55 ECV error) differs significantly from
expectations...
With all
the economic issues facing the USA and its federal gov't, one asks
today how was it the republic failed in its opportunity to elect a
successful businessman with proven political executive experience to
the office of the Presidency. Some would say the roots are in
the flawed Republican Party Primary system where a candidate may be
forced to adopt (temporary) extreme positions on issues dear to its
religious zealots in some key States in order to secure the
nomination. Others would say the campaign was poorly run as
illustrated by its tendency to allow the Obama campaign and the
leftist media to dictate the daily and weekly narrative. As
such, this never became "the economy election" and social
issues, tax returns and the 47% derailed the desired Romney message.
A
dominant conclusion of last nite's results is reflected in this
turn-of-phrase gone viral on the WWWeb today: "Ask Not what
you can do for your country; ask what your country can do for You."
It is also evident the USA faces two to four years of status-quo
political gridlock. This is entirely inopportune 'cuz
Congressional failure to address its
Debt Wall
virtually ensures a Greek-scale treasuries yield crisis within a
dozen years. According to the
TRENDLines Recession Indicator,
addressing in the short term its massive trillion dollar Deficits
could have avoided an ultimate Structural Depression. But with
the USA lacking the political leadership necessary to implement a
sea change in its course, the model concludes that even if such
change is implemented in 2016, the USA economy shall not have
sufficient time to avoid an event which has the makings of a
full-fledged Structural Greater Depression...
Among polling firms,
Trendlines Research produced the most accurate ECV forecasts in 2004
& 2008.
Click chart for guidance, USA election venue
archive
No new Monthly Consumption
Records 'til Oil below $104/barrel
May 25th
delayed FreeVenue public release of Feb 25th MemberVenue
guidance ~ The pace
of flow rates indicates a new global
Annual Production record
of 87.3
Mbd was set in 2011.
A new global
Quarterly Production record of 89.1 Mbd
was set in 2011Q4.
December 2011 gains distinction for the all time
global Monthly Production record: 89.8 Mbd.
Production is on track to break
the 90 barrier in Feb/2013 and 95 in 2015.
A
new Quarterly record for Demand
of 88.67 Mbd was set in 2011Q4.
December
2010 remains the high mark for Monthly Demand:89.5 Mbd ... an incredible leap from the Great Recession
low for Consumption of 82.9-mbd in May 2009.
Because the USA contract crude price currently surpasses
the
Barrel Meter's
PEAK DEMAND Barrier ($104/barrel), it is improbable
monthly consumption levels will see new highs 'til the oil price
retreats below this critical petroleum/GDP threshold...
May 24th
delayed FreeVenue public release of Feb 24th MemberVenue
guidance ~
Despite OPEC quota restrictions, Saudi Arabia remains atop Russia as World's top
All Liquids
producer. In the process, the Kingdom broke its own annual record
(10.9 Mbd) and again set a new global quarterly record (11.3 Mbd) and
a global monthly record (11.4 Mbd) as it boosted flows in its
previously reluctant role as
swing producer to replace lost Libya extraction. That said, it
is improbable Russia's 1987 annual/quarterly/monthly records (11.5
Mbd) will ever be surpassed.
Benefitting
from shale oil (light tight) is the USA in 3rd place with
flow of 9.2
Mbd. Following
are: China (4.1), Canada (3.5), Iran (3.5) & Mexico (2.9 Mbd).
Saudi Arabia MSC & Supply Outlook ... an update
March 31st delayed
FreeVenue public release of Dec 31st MemberVenue guidance ~ Guidance from the
Kingdom and/or Saudi Aramco with respect to MegaProjects & Surplus Capacity has
been limited to fine-tuning over the past three years. OPEC mandated quota restrictions had kept Supply below
national targets in 2008, 2009 & 2010, but geopolitical issues surrounding
Libya & Iran drew KSA from its reluctant role as swing producer. Saudi
Arabia set new monthly/quarterly/annual
production records in 2011. In 2009 I predicted that year
would prove to be the Kingdom's Peak Year for
Maximum Sustainable Capacity (MSC). Today it appears the 12.5-Mbd high
will be unchallenged and high idle capacity (2.0-Mbd) continues to hide this
milestone event. Last week's
URR Linearization update re-confirms the Kingdom appears to be inflating
their total resource base. In 2009 I revealed their claim of 900-Gb
was more like 212-Gb. Nothing has changed. All the announced MegaProjects are
still underway. Due to the subdued Demand growth since the Great Recession, final commissioning of Manifa
will be stretched out to 2014. The
preservation of Surplus Capacity reconciled with new construction indicates
the Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO) for regular conventional oil has
climbed from 2.5% to to 3.6%
per annum over the past two years. RCO extraction should remain above
8.0-Mbd 'til 2021.
click a chart
to visit the Saudi Arabia venue...
Update of legacy Saudi Arabia Crude Production Forecasts by Husseini
& theOilDrum
March 31st delayed
FreeVenue public release of Dec 31st MemberVenue guidance ~ Here's my annual look-see
at how the legacy predictions by Sadad al Husseini and
theOilDrum's Stuart Staniford & Ace (Joker) have performed against facts on
the ground. Admittedly, all efforts have been stymied to some degree
by OPEC mandated quota restrictions. This is exactly why it was decided
back in Feb/2009 to depict my Peak Scenario-2500's as Maximum
Sustainable Capacity ... not Production.
The PS-2500 continues to project 2009 as Peak
Year for MSC. The Kingdom's 3.6% Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO)
for regular conventional oil makes it almost impossible for any future announced megaprojects to have
sufficient
magnitude necessary to breach 2009's 12.5-Mbd high. Based on last week's
Linearization update,
my
estimate of KSA URR nudges up slightly to 211-Gb. The Husseini Outlook takes a similar view with
its production high (2023) of only 11-Mbd. The Ace (joker?) over @ TOD forecasts
extraction going south after 2011. Meanwhile, the infamous high-case
worst-case scenarios by theOilDrum's Stuart Staniford continue to be emblematic
of the agenda-driven rhetoric, fabrication of data, misinformation and mass
hysteria at that place.
Year 2100 co2 ppm target is 348 ... not 695-730 indicated by IPCC
premise of unlimited Fossil Fuel Resource
March 29th delayed
FreeVenue public release of Dec 29th MemberVenue guidance
~ Update of the annual co2-GHG analysis by Trendlines Research
reveals it is quite improbable co2 will ever attain the 695 ppm
level for Year 2100 indicated by Mauna Loa gains, or the 730-ppm
suggested by the trend of global readings. Both lofty figures
wrongly assume there is an unlimited supply of coal, oil and natural
gas to quench the appetite of developing BRIC nations. On the
contrary, today's study reveals current estimates of remaining
fossil fuel resource and declining growth rates for demand should
see fossil fuel emissions peak in 2029. This event would
result in a maximum co2 atmospheric concentration of 423-ppm (393
today), declining to 348-ppm by Year 2100.
Since the 60's, annual increases have risen from less than 1ppm
to 3ppm/yr. If there is good news, it is that concentrations
of the 16 Greenhouse Gases as
tracked by the NASA GHG Index are growing more slowly (1.2% annually
rather than the near 3%/yr back in the early 80's. This is thanx to headway in the methane and CFC fronts. The infamous Al Gore
graph spike (the stepladder one) is pure fantasy. Its absurd
800-ppm peak was based on an upward spike in co2 associated with the
1998 El Niño. This episode is viewable via the co2 emission
growth rate in the chart below. The 2001 IPCC Report, while
well intentioned, applied an extrapolated exponential increase in
co2 and temp's based on that anomaly.
click
a chart to view more charts & discussion @ my Climate Change venue....
Fossil Fuels Contribution to Atmospheric co2 Concentrations:
423ppm Peak in 2029
March 28th delayed
FreeVenue public release of Dec 28th MemberVenue guidance
~ The 2011 annual analysis by Trendlines Research of
fossil fuels emissions indicates their contribution should result in
a peak of atmospheric co2 concentration of 423-ppm in 2029. It
should be noted that while
rising co2 concentration levels exhibit a correlated upwards
tracking with
total emissions, the decay pulse would indicate residual co2 will not
follow the post peak downward path of emissions as quickly. Most co2
remains for a hundred years and traces linger for almost a
millennium. By Year 2100, co2 will have declined to only
348-ppm ... taking us back to 1980 concentrations.
Underlying the simultaneous total emissions & co2 concentration peak
in 2029 are a coal emissions peak in 2025;
PEAK DEMAND of
All Liquids in 2029 (100-Mbd); and a
natural gas emissions peak in 2035. These updated findings of
Freddy Hutter's original Dec/2007 study continues to contrast
substantially with the consensus view represented by the Hansen &
Kharecha white paper (NASA Nov/2007) suggesting co2 will peak @
585-ppm in Year 2100. It assumes a 96-Mbd oil peak in 2016 - but is based on a 2003
study by EIA/Wood. The
Trendlines Research study is founded on a premise that the GDP/Energy Demand scenarios within IPCC 2001
were overly optimistic in the sense they assumed the
growth accompanying increases in population and rising disposable
incomes in the BRIC nations would be
fueled by fossil fuels. Unfortunately, there isn't enuf oil, coal
and natural
gas left in the ground to feed the magnificent projected Demand.
Historic Tracking of (ASPO-IE) Colin Campbell Depletion Model:
1989-2011
March
28th delayed
FreeVenue public release of Dec 27th MemberVenue guidance ~
Today's
update adds Colin Campbell's May/2011 Outlook. It re-confirms his
position
All Liquids peaked @ 85-mbd in 2008 (despite EIA data to the
contrary) and is founded on a
2,52334-Gb URR (up 89-Gb from last year). The chart tracks all the production profile
revisions over his career. Its forecasts of Peak Year have ranged from 1989 to
2012. In fact, December marks the 22nd anniversary of Campbell's
initial All Liquids declaration that oil had indeed peaked. To be
accurate ... a sub-peak. In Dec/1989, he declared All Liquids production had reached its physical limits @
66-mbd and would never again attain the 67-Mbd Peak back in 1979.
Campbell's estimates for Peak Rate
span from that virgin call of a 66 Mbd sub-peak in 1989 to his 2008
forecast of a
97 Mbd peak in 2010. His underlying All Liquids URR estimates range from
1575-Gb (1989) to 2900-Gb (2002). TRENDLiners may have notice my last three
annual
chart revisions have excluded Campbell's 1991,
1996, 1997 & 1998 projections. I determined those studies forecast Regular Conventional
Oil ... not All Liquids, and only led to unnecessary
confusion.
His current (2011) forecast for RCO can be compared to the only three
other such projections for light sweet crude at my
Scenarios
venue.
See how the
2010 ASPO Depletion Model measures up against other failed outlooks in our
Invalidated Scenarios
presentation & compared agin
Tier-1
URR
estimates.
click here to see
how the latest (2011) Campbell Depletion Model measures up against
the only other three
studies
addressing Regular Conventional Oil (light sweet crude)
click chart
for full discussion & more at the Peak Oil History venue...
URR/EUR Highlights
Oil Initially in Place (OIIP):
19-Tb.
URR avg:
4,174-Gb (doubled since 1995) & rising 22-Gb for each $1/barrel crude price
increase
Remaining Resource:
2,886-Gb (doubled since Y2k)
Inferred
Depletion: 31%
Remaining Resource/Annual Production Ratio:
90 (record low:
44 in 1995)
Proved
Reserves: 1,256-Gb (doubled since 1978) & growing by 49-Gb/yr
(10-yr avg)
Past Consumption: 1,288-Gb
(to 2011/12/31 excl 5-Gb BTL)
March 26th delayed FreeVenue public release of Dec 26th MemberVenue
guidance ~ Today's
compilation update figures from BP, Brandt & Farrell, Campbell, EIA, ExxonMobil, Laherrère, Total
& my own Hutter
Peak
Scenario-2500.
Today's URR study Avg is 118-Gb
higher than last year and 82-Gb less than the avg inferred within
the last monthly update of our 16-model
Tier-1 Scenarios Presentation.
Its slightly different mix of practitioners has a URR Avg of
4,256-Gb.
URR Growth Rate Vs Consumption
Chart#2 compares the
growth rate of the 22-model Avg with OGJ & BP. It is seen the
recent high-price regime fuelled favourable economics of previously
thought fringe contingent (sub-commercial) resources.
Discovery, development and technology advancements (especially of
non-conventionals) fuelled a growth pace of 128-Gb/yr (4.9%) since
1996. This far surpasses URR's growth of 30-Gb/yr (2.3%) from
1957-1995.
Unsustainable crude
prices ($129/barrel high - July/2008) drove discoveries,
exploration, and conversion of sub-commercial (contingent) resources
over to the economic side of the ledger. But, subsequent
sub-$90 pricing was a serious dampener of that headiness.
Viewed via the 3-yr rolling average of the 22-models, additions to
URR peaked @ 420-Gb in 2008, the growth rate slipping to 0-Gb in
2011. My analysis reveals over the last ten years URR has
risen 22-Gb for every $1/barrel price increase. Similarly,
each higher dollar added 2-Gb of Proved Reserves.
click a chart for full discussion,
tables & related graphs @ URR/EUR venue...
1996
Campbell URR
components
2011
1,650
Original
pre-1996 Discoveries
1,650
0
post-1995
backdates
417
0
post-1995
net discoveries
362
150
future
Conventional allowance
75
000
future
Non-Conv allowance
19
1,800-Gb
2,523-Gb
Sans ASPO backdating ... no longer "running out of oil"
March
25th delayed FreeVenue public release of Dec 25th MemberVenue
guidance - As I predicted
in 2007, global All Liquids URR/EUR is headed for 6-Tb ... not the
ultra conservative resource projected by Colin Campbell of ASPO-IE.
Colin Campbell published his first Historical Discoveries graph
in 1996. It was based on his estimated URR of 1800
billion barrels (Gb) and was comprised of 1650-Gb of
Discovered crude & a
150-Gb
allowance for probable Future Discoveries. His 2007 version
(at left) is misleading in the sense that its backdating methodology
gives the perception of "a well running dry".
My 2007 chart
revealed for the first time how ASPO had stealthily hid record levels of Discoveries &
Reserve Growth by clever and non-transparent backdating. The
chart's hashed yellow bars illustrate what this ASPO Discoveries Chart would look like w/o the
deceptive backdating. Now, four years later, the tall lime
bars emphasize dramatically why Colin Campbell & ASPO have never
updated their classic graph!
The gloomy chart was
given wide dissemination at a time when ASPO had been hijacked by
the McPeaksters ... a fringe fraternity that has been promoting
"imminent" Peak Oil since 1989. I consider the premise behind
the practice of backdating as sound. However, McPeaksters have
chose to depict the measure with an utter disregard for
transparency. IMHO, this was done to mislead and cause
alarmism. Today's revelations leave McPeaksters stymied in defending
their "well running dry" or "running out of oil" rhetoric.
The new
chart depicts BP's increases in URR for 2007, 2008, 2009 & 2010 ...
increasing their own URR to 2,787-Gb. In comparison, my 22-model
URR estimates
study
averages 3,820-Gb &
my 15-model
Tier-1 Depletion Scenarios
project infers All Liquids URR is 4,330-Gb. My own
PS-2500 model presently gauges URR to be 7.928-Gb. Colin
Campbell has raised his URR by another 89-Gb to 2,523-Gb this year.
The McPeakster doom
position is completely
undermined by the realization the growth trend has resumed its
post-2006 pace, with an avg 66-Gb/yr in additions by BP. That's double the rate
of annual consumption! The prospect of Discoveries dwindling to nothingness as shown in
ASPO's 2007 depiction is absurd. Campbell expects only 75-Gb of
future discoveries of Regular Conventional &
19-Gb of non-Conventional resource over the next century.
click chart for full
discussion & URR venue...
Barrel Meter
Compared to 13 Recognized Long-Term 2035 Crude Oil Price
Forecasts
March
24th delayed FreeVenue
public release of Dec 24th guidance @ our MemberVenue ~ Today's
chart compares the
Trendlines Barrel Meter
monthly revision to updated annual price outlooks by Adam
Sieminski of Deutsche Bank, EIA, IEA, OPEC, Boone Pickens & Chris Skrebowski.
A new annotation added
to the chart today is Freddy Hutter's "Peak Demand Barrier".
In Oct/2011 it was proposed in his
TrendLines Barrel Meter model
that global oil consumption ceases to grow when
the USA contract crude price exceeds this definitive Petroleum/GDP
ratio. The thesis further suggests the natural Geologic Peak
of 103-Mbd in 2031 will be pre-empted by Peak Demand upon permanent
breach of the PDB threshold in 2029 when oil surpasses $213/barrel
hence holding consumption to the 100-Mbd at that juncture.
The
Barrel Meter
has been unique in its tracking of oil fundamentals as components of
crude price since 1999. The recent update calculates today's
$103 price to be a 27% premium over crude's Fundamental Fair Value. US$ Debasement
since early 2009 remains a $15 price component. This new
revision proposes spiking activity in 2008 & 2011 is related to
newborn cyclicity within oil fundamentals and additional spikes can
be expected in 2015, 2018 & 2021.
The
Barrel Meter currently
forecasts that failing either any major geopolitical event or OPEC
intervention at their June convention, much improving fundamentals
should see oil decline to $63 by Sept/2012. It maintains a
price ceiling to any spiking activity of the monthly avg exists as
represented by another definitive Petroleum/GDP ratio ... the Demand
Destruction Barrier.
Between these two lines is the price point (currently $121) which
can induce economic Recessions among the G-20 nations (as occurred
in 2009). The
Trendlines
Gas Pump
reveals a similar critical price level - the USA Light Vehicle Sales
Barrier - the price at which rising gasoline prices cause collapse
in the auto manufacturing sector. This occurred in 1980, 1990,
2007 & Spring 2011. It is $3.37/gallon ($102/barrel oil)
today.
The
Barrel Meter
imports data on projected extraction costs,
spare production capacity & business cycles from the
Peak Scenario 2500
depletion model. A similar analysis for
gasoline price is featured via the
Gas Pump
presentation.
click chart for more
price discussions, tables & graphs...
Conservatives
were in post-Debates free fall 'til Launch of SunNews
May 4 2011 delayed
FreeVenue public release of MemberVenue guidance
~ Release of Freddy Hutter's Antweiler-based riding projection
reveals the Conservatives were in free fall after the Leaders'
Debates, but a reversal in fortunes coincided with the April 18th
launch of the right-wing cable channel SunNews. Support
for PM Harper fell by 22 MPs in the six days following the April
11/12 Debates, then began the historic comeback to a 167 Majority.
It is said that the CTV Mike Duffy exposure of Dion's "Can we do
this again" outtake was the turning pint in October 2008.
Similarly, I would venture the Bell/CTV decision to air SunNews from
Launch to Election despite the fee dispute was instrumental in this
week's outcome.
May 3 2011
~ Again this year Trendlines has rated the 14 international efforts
comprising our 14-model Avg daily tracking chart. As in 2008,
best-in-class was our own Antweiler-based projection! The
Scoreboard includes each model's success for the
2011/2008/2007/2006/2004 Federal & Ontario elections.
click chart for table,
full discussion & blog of our 4 Federal campaigns...
These are the FreeVenue's most
recent free charts ... please click a graph or the
venue links below for more charts, tables & full
discussion ... or for as little as $20/month
join & get the
MemberVenue real-time
versions!
I'm pleased to tell TRENDLiners this past Winter 86% of
visitors were International (a record 125 nations: most from USA,
UK, Australia,
France, Germany, Spain, Saudi Arabia, Palestine, Italy &
Trinidad)
![[New!]](../images/smallnew.gif){kind=small}
FreeVenue charts
... click graph or right-pane links for guidance,
tables & research notes
update of
TRENDLines
March update of
Australia,
UK
&
quarterly update of
TRENDLines
2011 update of 
![[Under Construction]](../images/undercon.gif){kind=small}
