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Trendlines Research  ...  Providing macro-economic charts & guidance for Legislators, Policymakers, Investors & Stakeholders
long-term multi-disciplinary perspectives by Freddy Hutter since 1989

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[New!]= posted to the FreeVenue in the last 30 days.  FreeVenue charts are generally posted 90-days after the guidance release @ MemberVenue

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  [New!]  June update of TRENDLines  Gas Pump ~ Price Components & Crack Spread for USA Gasoline
[New!]May update of TRENDLines  Peak Oil Depletion Tier-1 Scenarios:  14-model consensus infers global production will still be ½ of today in 2086
[New!]May update of freddy hutter's  Peak Scenario-2500 Oil Depletion model
[New!]  May update of TRENDLines  Barrel Meter ~ USA Crude en route to $68/barrel
 
update of the Trendlines  Peak Oil Depletion Tier-2 Scenarios downgrade of CERA outlook to Tier-2 status
2012 update of Trendlines URR/EUR Linearizations chart
Regular Conventional Oil  2030 projections ~ Colin Campbell (38-mbd) vs Freddy Hutter (58-mbd)
update of TRENDLines  Peak Oil Depletion Archive of Invalidated Scenarios:  downgrade of Rembrandt Koppelaar to Invalidated status
World Production Records:  No new Monthly Consumption Records 'til Oil below $104/barrel

Quarterly Production for the Top 7 Nations ~ Canada overtakes Iran  

  2011 update of Saudi Arabia Crude Supply Targets & MSC

  update of legacy  Saudi Arabia crude production forecasts by Husseini & theOilDrum

climate ~ Current trends indicate 695-730ppm Atmospheric Concentrations of co2 in 2100 ... but Trendlines Target is 423ppm in 2025

climate ~ Update of Trendlines Target for Fossil Fuel Contribution to Atmospheric co2 Concentrations:  423 ppm in 2029

Historic Tracking of (ASPO-IE) Colin Campbell Depletion Model:  1989-2011

update of Trendlines 22-model URR Estimates  & URR Annual Growth vs Consumption

Update of Campbell/ASPO Stealth Discoveries chart

  Barrel Meter compared to 13 Recognized long-term (2035) Crude Oil Price Forecasts

McPeaksters Declare Top for 20th Year ... 1989 to 2008 ... Milestone to Celebrate?  Or Peak for theOilDrum?

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Scroll down for[New!]monthly updates of the 25 Trendlines FreeVenue Peak Oil charts

 

 the Gas Pump ~ Auto Sector Poised for 2024 Collapse

Sept 24th delayed FreeVenue public release of June 24th MemberVenue guidance ~ All-grades retail gasoline averaged $3.68/gal in May ... up 4¢ from the previous month.  The Trendlines Barrel Meter model suggests USA Refiner Acquisition Crude will enjoy improved fundamentals (and non-fundamentals) over the medium term resulting in $68/barrel RAC ($63 WTI) and 2.71/gal gasoline by 1Q18.  The positive effect on car sales will already be evident this Summer.  Unfortunately, a resumption of the secular price uptrend in 2018 will drive pump prices to permanently breach the Light Vehicle Sales Barrier in 2024 upon surpassing $4.16/gal.  With the extremely low absorption rate of electric cars and trucks, it is probable this bodycheck to the auto sector will be devastating to an economy already in an austerity-induced Severe Recession as forecast by the Trendlines Recession Indicator.

 PRICE COMPONENTS   As seen in the table above, last month's avg Retail Price of $3.68 is comprised of $2.88/gal Wholesale refinery product & $o.80 Margin.  In turn, Margin is made up of $o.43 Taxes & $o.37 Profit.  Historically, this compares to 54¢ Margin, 42¢ Taxes & 13¢ Profit back in Y2k.  Last month's Crack Spread (diff betw wholesale & contract crude) was $0.52/gal ($21.70/barrel).  The raw crude component ($2.36/gal) continues to be volatile, particularly its Stress Premium price subcomponent (comprised of geopolitical issues, weather events and disasters).  Barrel Meter analysis reveals this factor added 31¢/gal in May ... up a tad but still much better down than 66¢ at the height of the Libya crisis (April 2011).  Debasement of the USDollar currently adds 45¢/gal to pump prices, down from 58¢ two yeas ago during the Obama Budget fiasco.  General Speculation/Hedging Activity added 15¢/gal to last month's gas price.  The tightness of Surplus Capacity enabling the Iran sanctions added 41¢.  The trivia dept advises this would be boosted by another 13¢ should Canada's bitumen sector be shuttered to placate the global warming alarmists.

click chart for more graphs, table & full guidance at the Gas Pump venue...

   

TRENDLines Peak Oil Depletion Tier-1 Scenarios:  Aug 29th delayed FreeVenue public release of May 29th MemberVenue guidance ~ Today's release updates only my own Tier-1 Outlook (Hutter Peak Scenario-2500)

Consensus based on 14-model Tier-1 avg:

   Peak Oil:  98 Mbd in 2028

   Post-peak Decline Rate 'til 2050:  0.9 %/yr avg

   The year 50% of URR/EUR has been extracted:  2037

   The year flow retreats below today's 90-Mbd:  2043

   The year flow drops to ½ of today's 90-Mbd:  2086

   The year we virtually run out of oil:  2296  (less than 8-Mbd & mostly BTL)

   URR/EUR:  4,286 Gb  (1,319-Gb consumed to 2012/12/31 excl 6-Gb BTL)

   Proved Reserves to be consumed from 2013 'til 2029 Peak:  541 Gb

   Today's Global Depletion:  31% of URR  (Net Depletion Rate:  1.1%/yr)

click chart for Tier-2 & many more graphs, tables & guidance...

   

Peak Oil:  99-Mbd in 2023

6,971 Gb All Liquids URR/EUR  2013/5/28 99-Mbd PEAK 2023 2013 flow: 90-Mbd
2,006 Gb Regular Conventional Oil 67-mbd  2005 62 Mbd
557 Gb Bitumen/X-Heavy 16-mbd  2050 3 Mbd
1,680 Gb NGL-GTL-Ref/Gain 17-mbd 2041 11 Mbd
230 Gb Shale & Kerogen 10-mbd  2046 2 Mbd
262 Gb Deep Sea & Arctic 15-mbd 2031 10 Mbd
2,236 Gb CTL 14-mbd 2046 0 Mbd

1,319 Gb  PAST  (excl 6-Gb BTL; to 2012/12/31)

+2 Mbd BTL

Aug 28th delayed FreeVenue public release of May 28th MemberVenue guidance ~ monthly update of Freddy Hutter's Peak Scenario-2500 Oil Depletion Model

Highlights:

   PEAK OIL:  99-Mbd in 2023

   Post-Peak Decline Rate:  0.6%/yr avg 'til 2050

   2013 Capacity:  95-Mbd incl global Surplus Capacity of 5-Mbd

   URR/EUR:  6,971-Gb  (consumed to 2012/12/31:  1,319-Gb excl 6-Gb BTL)

   Proved Reserves req'd 2013 'til 2023 Peak:  366-Gb of 1,399 available

   Depletion of URR:  19%      Annual Gross Depletion Rate:  0.5%  (Net:  0.6%)

   The year flow retreats below today's 90-Mbd:  2044     ... & ½ of today:  2111

   The year 50% of URR consumed:  2092

   The year All Liquids (excl BTL) runs out:  2496    ... & Light Sweet Crude (RCO):  2124

   Underlying Decline Rate Observed 2013:  3.6% (3.23 Mbd) of global All Liquids

click graph for more PS-2500 charts, tables & guidance...

The higher resolution in PS-2500's  Year 2035 Outlook  provides a view of the two competing All Liquids forecast camps and the resultant "scary wedge".  Both assume  at least 5.0-Mbd Surplus Capacity & Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO) rising to 4.7% from 3.6% today:

(a) First, an ultra conservative (low) trajectory with an apparent 91-Mbd Peak in 2013, declining to 23-Mbd by 2035 (hashed lime line).  As a Worst Case Scenario, this projection assumes the oil sector will develop no further production capacity in the future other than the announced-to-date MegaProjects.

(b) Second, the more plausible (high) production profile where new Megaprojects will avg 3.8 Mbd/yr thru 2035 (4.3-Mbd/yr current trend), culminating with 99-Mbd Peak Oil in 2023.  Its optimistic trajectory is down from past estimates as high as 121-Mbd 'cuz the Consumption growth rate has waned since 2004 due to demand destruction associated with the prospect of ever higher crude prices.

In practical terms, recent history (since 1970) has shown the pessimistic projection line (hashed lime line) incrementally rises thru time to meet the past production trend line (solid lime line).  In short, the Scary Wedge as shown has been as ominous for over four decades but the start point constantly gets pushed back to "next year".

2012 Underlying Decline Rate Observed:  3.6% (3.23 Mbd) of annual global All Liquids

Flow from global New Capacity in 2012 was 4.3-Mbd:  3.0-Mbd addressed last year's loss via Underlying Decline Observed (UDO) and the balance raised Capacity to a new record high of 93.8-Mbd.  McPeaksters were stunned to learn year-end global Surplus Capacity remained an incredible 4.6-Mbd despite their having predicted (again) it would be totally exhausted by year-end if extraction rose as forecast.

In March 2009, the Peak Scenario-2500 model discovered global UDO has been a significant factor since way back to 1970.  Albeit 119-Mbd of facilities were built over the past four decades, capacity had only increased by 42-Mbd.  In short, an avg 2.9% of All Liquids annual production had been lost to UDO.  Chart#4 illustrates long-term global annual UDO (red line), but it is the Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO) inset featuring % change which is most instructive:  UDRO exhibits a tendency to ebb and flow.  Further, these cyclical (8.5-yr) crests correlate with all six recent American Structural Recessions.  The crests appear to reflect reduced EOR activity during economic contractions, no doubt due to capital & cash flow challenges amid a reduced Demand environment.

UDRO's highest annual surge (bold red line) was 6.3% of global All Liquids production in 1984.  The 4.3% & 2.9% crests during the 1991 & 2001 Recessions were followed by a 2.1% UDRO trough in 2006 - then 3.0% in 2007.  The lengthy 2007-2015 crest of the present USA Structural Greater Depression is seen to characterize past Structural contraction events.  The loss factor is expected to continue its secular uptrend, rising to 5.6% by 2050.  My study of USA business cycles (TRI-USA) suggests UDRO crests may re-occur in 2024, 2034 & 2043; but with diminishing effect as the USA becomes less dominant on the global scene.  China GDP will surpass America in 2020.

Trendlines Research analysis reveals from 1970 to 2009, 77-Mbd of new facilities addressed UDO & 42-Mbd raised Extraction Capacity from 49 in 1969 to 91-Mbd.  In short, the oil sector has been adding 3-Mbd/yr ... or a new Saudi Arabia every three years for four decades!  On the horizon, PS-2500 forecasts 57-Mbd of facilities will be required to facilitate the 2023 PEAK:  13 to increase Capacity (91 in 2009 to 104-Mbd) and 44-Mbd to address UDO loss over those 14 years.  Added to the 77-Mbd to cover 1970-2009 decline loss, a total 121-Mbd of Capacity will have been dedicated to this loss phenomenon over the 54 year period.

   

  Barrel Meter USA Crude en route to $68/barrel

Aug 27th delayed FreeVenue public release of May 27th MemberVenue guidance ~ USA Refiner Acquisition Crude price averaged $97/barrel in April (down $4 from previous month) and is currently 7% ($7) above its $90 Fundamentals Fair Value as gauged by the Trendlines Barrel Meter model.  Both fundamental and non-fundamental price components have been improving since the $112 Libya crisis spike (Apr/2011) and as they continue to improve the result should be a retreat to $68 ($62 WTI) by 1Q18.  From that juncture, RAC price will resume its secular uptrend mainly forced by a 5% annual increase in Extraction Costs (down from 14% last decade).  Triple digit RAC prices will become permanent in 3Q20 & the $129 monthly record should be smashed in 1Q24.

The Barrel Meter model assumes the oil sector will exercise best practices with respect to the traditional pace of development of Reserves (40-yr R/P ratio) and one can expect mini-spikes to occur whenever Surplus Capacity falls below the critical level of 4-Mbd.  The model predicts short-term price softness associated with a potential austerity-induced 2024 Severe Recession in the US as presently being forecast by the Trendlines Recession Indicator.  This prognosis conflicts with the model's previous conclusion of the existence of a historic North American 8.5-yr business cycle and probable hard-landings in 2017, 2026 & 2034.  In any case with China expected to regain its role as world's largest economy in 2020, the USA's deteriorating share of global GDP means future American downturns will have a decreased effect on oil price.

In the "couldn't-happen-at-a-worse-time" dept, the Barrel Meter model projects USA RAC price will permanently exceed the (gasoline/diesel) Light Vehicle Sales Barrier in March 2026 upon surpassing $144/barrel, spawning a major collapse in the vulnerable North American auto sector ... specifically the manufacturing of diesel and gasoline engine units.  The Trendlines Gas Pump model suggests the (gasoline) LVSB will be transgressed as early as Nov/2024 ($4.11/gal).  Either way, the combination of the multi-year Recession and the LVSB episode could chop the forecast pace of new car & light truck sales (17 million units/yr) by 25%.


Price Components

       $97      April 2013
Windfall Margin   $ 0
Stress Premium   $10
Speculation/Hedging Activity   $ 7
US $ Debasement   $19
Inventory Draw/Build   $-1
Lack of Surplus Capacity   $17
Extraction Cost  (weighted)   $45

click any chart for tables & full guidance...


compare to guidance a year ago:  "April 2012" chart!

 Four definitive Oil-Cost/GDP Ratios   The natural business-as-usual production scenario would normally unfold with an All Liquids GEOLOGIC PEAK of 101-Mbd in 2030.  But this course is threatened to be truncated by the very real prospect of PEAK DEMAND.  Starting in 2004, the long-term trend for the growth rate of global Consumption began to wane as petroleum prices hit new highs.  This culminated in an unexpected OECD consumption peak in 2005.  The onset of occasional ventures into triple-digit territory has spawned even more demand destruction.  Consumers, commerce & institutions are substituting and conserving.  Over the years I have discovered rising petroleum prices have economic consequences which are indeed predictable at five definitive petroleum/GDP ratios.  These invisible lines-in-the-sand generally rise (and fall) in time with GDP.  Three have global implications and two are USA specific.

  2040 Target      The 2008 record monthly price of $129 should be smashed in 2025.  Rising petroleum prices will inspire many forms of demand destruction but not to the degree where the natural Geologic Peak (101-Mbd  2030) is truncated by PEAK DEMAND.  The model suggests RAC price will not permanently surpass its PEAK DEMAND Barrier 'til 2038 upon exceeding $291/barrel.  Ever-rising costs for the marginal barrel continue as the main forcing for the secular uptrend as Extraction Cost rises to $200/barrel.  One can expect mini-spikes to occur whenever Surplus Capacity falls below the critical level of 4-Mbd.  The model predicts short-term price softness associated with a potential 2024-2027 Severe Recession in the USA as presently being forecast by the Trendlines Recession Indicator.  Declining imports and share of global GDP should mean future American downturns will have decreasing effects on oil price.  That said, USA RAC price is projected to permanently exceed the Light Vehicle Sales Barrier in 2026 ($144/barrel), spawning a major collapse in the North American auto sector ... specifically the manufacturing of diesel and gasoline powered units.  The Barrel Meter projects nominal RAC price is en route to $327/barrel - the 2040 target.

   

TRENDLines Tier-2 Peak Oil Depletion Scenarios:  April 29th delayed FreeVenue public release of Jan 29th MemberVenue guidance ~ Today's revision downgrades the 2009 CERA outlook by Peter Jackson from Tier-1.

The CERA outlooks by Peter Jackson were introduced to our presentation in late 2005 and have consistently been the most optimistic of the Tier-1 scenarios.  Unfortunately the analysis methodology requires updates at least every three years and as such the 2009 version has been downgraded today to Tier-2 status.  Earnestly looking forward to an update...

Linearization Method: URR/EUR Comparisons (2012/12/26)

Geo/Tech Method:

3,600-Gb All Liquids 6,895-Gb
2,001-Gb Regular Conventional Oil 1,999-Gb
110-Gb Bitumen/X-Heavy CTL-Kerogen-Shale 2,969-Gb
180-Gb Deep Sea & Arctic 262-Gb
270-Gb Saudi Arabian Crude

900-Gb

290-Gb NGL-GTL-Ref/Gain 1,680-Gb

click chart for full guidance at URR/EUR venue...

Mar 26th delayed FreeVenue public release of Dec 26th MemberVenue guidance ~ Linearization analysis is a guiding counterweight to geology/technology based Estimates of Ultimate Economical Recoverable Resource (URR/EUR). When compared, All Liquids succumbs to a 3,295-Gb differential, mostly attributable to Bitumen, CTL, GTL & Kerogen not yet reflecting their massive potential flows. OTOH, this shortfall is somewhat mitigated by the taint of biofuels-to-liquid influence. BTL is not included in the URR tally, but is indeed reflected in All Liquids production data.  Based on these linearizations, the world won't run out of light sweet crude (RCO) until Year 2103.

   

Regular Conventional Oil Scenarios

2030:  Colin Campbell (38-Mbd) vs Freddy Hutter (52-Mbd)

March 24th delayed FreeVenue public release of Dec 24th MemberVenue guidance ~ Over the years, there have been only 4 modellers worldwide who have published long term production profiles for Regular Conventional Oil ... the light sweet crude:  Albert Bartlett (USA), Colin Campbell (Ireland), M King Hubbert (USA) & TRENDLines' own Freddy Hutter (Yukon Canada).

RCO extraction peaked in May 2005 @ 69-mbd and it appears the midpoint of its (2,005-Gb) URR/EUR was crossed several months thereafter (Oct/2006).  RCO production declined at an annual rate of 2.2% from 2006-2009 to 63-Mbd, but has since been in plateau.  2012 extraction was a 64-Mbd pace.  Campbell's 2011 Depletion Model continues to extend RCO's dramatic 2.2%/yr post-peak decline rate thru to 2030.  It also increased RCO's URR by 84-Gb to 2,047-Gb ... a career high estimate for Colin.  Conversely, the Hutter Peak Scenario-2500 (the sole active model) has trimmed last year's URR estimate by another 33-Gb to 2,005-Gb.  While Campbell forecasts the annual flow rate will deteriorate to 38-Mbd by 2030, Hutter takes the position 52-Mbd is more probable.  On the longer term, whereas Campbell predicts the annual Decline Rate softens after 2050, Hutter sees major resource constraint after 2066.

As a 72% component of All Liquids, the short-term demise of Regular Conventional Oil will determine whether Peak Oil is imminent or has another 18 years to play out.  The PS-2500 model determined in 2008 the steep RCO decline (2.2% 2006-2009) was not the result of rapid depletion but rather a mirage masked by shifts in global Surplus Capacity.  As such, Hutter has been stalwart in his position RCO extraction had entered a 62-Mbd plateau which will hold 'til 2023, thereby forming a solid foundation for non-conventionals to take All Liquids to ever increasing heights.  With light sweet crude rising to 64-Mbd in 2012, the universe appears to be unfolding as it should...

click chart for RCO coverage at the Scenarios venue...

Trendlines Peak Oil Depletion Archive of Invalidated Outlooks ~ Dec 30th delayed FreeVenue public release of Sept 30th MemberVenue guidance ~ Today's revision:  (a) upgrades to Tier-2 status the formerly Invalidated Outlook by Jean Laherrère;  & (c) downgrades to Invalidated status (from Tier-2) the Rembrandt Koppelaar 2009 Outlook.

On a sadder note, another McPeakster effort has bit the dust.  The stale-dated Rembrandt Koppelaar 2009 Outlook has predicted an 89-Mbd Peak in 2014, but another stalwart year by the oil sector saw that milepost achieved this year already.  The scenario has been downgraded to Invalidated status (from Tier-2).

click chart for Tier-2, Tier-1, Regular Conventional & many more graphs, tables & discussion...

   

 

No new Monthly Consumption Records 'til Oil below $104/barrel

May 25th delayed FreeVenue public release of Feb 25th MemberVenue guidance ~ The pace of flow rates indicates a new global Annual Production record of 87.3 Mbd was set in 2011 A new global Quarterly Production record of 89.1 Mbd was set in 2011Q4December 2011 gains distinction for the all time global Monthly Production record:  89.8 Mbd.  Production is on track to break the 90 barrier in Feb/2013 and 95 in 2015.

A new Quarterly record for Demand of 88.67 Mbd was set in 2011Q4.  December 2010 remains the high mark for Monthly Demand:  89.5 Mbd ... an incredible leap from the Great Recession low for Consumption of 82.9-mbd in May 2009.  Because the USA contract crude price currently surpasses the Barrel Meter's PEAK DEMAND Barrier ($104/barrel), it is improbable monthly consumption levels will see new highs 'til the oil price retreats below this critical petroleum/GDP threshold...

Trendlines Research's global All Liquids Underlying Decline Rates Observed:  2011 - 3.2% (2.77mbd);  1970-2009 Avg - 2.7%


click a chart for Records venue


Canada overtakes Iran

May 24th delayed FreeVenue public release of Feb 24th MemberVenue guidance ~ Despite OPEC quota restrictions, Saudi Arabia remains atop Russia as World's top All Liquids producer.  In the process, the Kingdom broke its own annual record (10.9 Mbd) and again set a new global quarterly record (11.3 Mbd) and a global monthly record (11.4 Mbd) as it boosted flows in its previously reluctant role as swing producer to replace lost Libya extraction.  That said, it is improbable Russia's 1987 annual/quarterly/monthly records (11.5 Mbd) will ever be surpassed.

Benefittng from shale oil (light tight) is the USA in 3rd place with flow of 9.2 Mbd.  Following are:  China (4.1), Canada (3.5), Iran (3.5) & Mexico (2.9 Mbd).

Trendlines Research's All Liquids Underlying Decline Rates Observed in 2011:  Worldwide 3.2% (2.8-mbd), Saudi Arabia 3.1% (0.34-mbd) & USA 2.5% (0.22-mbd)

   

  Saudi Arabia MSC & Supply Outlook ... an update

March 31st delayed FreeVenue public release of Dec 31st MemberVenue guidance ~ Guidance from the Kingdom and/or Saudi Aramco with respect to MegaProjects & Surplus Capacity has been limited to fine-tuning over the past three years.  OPEC mandated quota restrictions had kept Supply below national targets in 2008, 2009 & 2010, but geopolitical issues surrounding Libya & Iran drew KSA from its reluctant role as swing producer.  Saudi Arabia set new monthly/quarterly/annual production records in 2011.  In 2009 I predicted that year would prove to be the Kingdom's Peak Year for Maximum Sustainable Capacity (MSC).  Today it appears the 12.5-Mbd high will be unchallenged and high idle capacity (2.0-Mbd) continues to hide this milestone event.  Last week's URR Linearization update re-confirms the Kingdom appears to be inflating their total resource base.  In 2009 I revealed their claim of 900-Gb was more like 212-Gb.  Nothing has changed.  All the announced MegaProjects are still underway.  Due to the subdued Demand growth since the Great Recession, final commissioning of Manifa will be stretched out to 2014.  The preservation of Surplus Capacity reconciled with new construction indicates the Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO) for regular conventional oil has climbed from 2.5% to to 3.6% per annum over the past two years.  RCO extraction should remain above 8.0-Mbd 'til 2021.


click a chart to visit the Saudi Arabia venue...


  Update of legacy Saudi Arabia Crude Production Forecasts by Husseini & theOilDrum

March 31st delayed FreeVenue public release of Dec 31st MemberVenue guidance ~ Here's my annual look-see at how the legacy predictions by Sadad al Husseini and theOilDrum's Stuart Staniford & Ace (Joker) have performed against facts on the ground.  Admittedly, all efforts have been stymied to some degree by OPEC mandated quota restrictions.  This is exactly why it was decided back in Feb/2009 to depict my Peak Scenario-2500's as Maximum Sustainable Capacity ... not Production.  The PS-2500 continues to project 2009 as Peak Year for MSC.  The Kingdom's 3.6% Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO) for regular conventional oil makes it almost impossible for any future announced megaprojects to have sufficient magnitude necessary to breach 2009's 12.5-Mbd high.  Based on last week's Linearization update, my estimate of KSA URR nudges up slightly to 211-Gb.  The Husseini Outlook takes a similar view with its production high (2023) of only 11-Mbd.  The Ace (joker?) over @ TOD forecasts extraction going south after 2011.  Meanwhile, the infamous high-case worst-case scenarios by theOilDrum's Stuart Staniford continue to be emblematic of the agenda-driven rhetoric, fabrication of data, misinformation and mass hysteria at that place.  Since 2002, McPeakster websites & pundits have been the best thing to ever have come along for oil sector shareholders & NOCs since the invention of the automobile.  The dozens of alarmist "news feeds" disseminated by McPeaksters each week contribute directly to the bottom line of Producers via windfall profits.

   

Year 2100 co2 ppm target is 348 ... not 695-730 indicated by IPCC premise of unlimited Fossil Fuel Resource

March 29th delayed FreeVenue public release of Dec 29th MemberVenue guidance ~ Update of the annual co2-GHG analysis by Trendlines Research reveals it is quite improbable co2 will ever attain the 695 ppm level for Year 2100 indicated by Mauna Loa gains, or the 730-ppm suggested by the trend of global readings.  Both lofty figures wrongly assume there is an unlimited supply of coal, oil and natural gas to quench the appetite of developing BRIC nations.  On the contrary, today's study reveals current estimates of remaining fossil fuel resource and declining growth rates for demand should see fossil fuel emissions peak in 2029.  This event would result in a maximum co2 atmospheric concentration of 423-ppm (393 today), declining to 348-ppm by Year 2100.

This analysis shows atmospheric co2 concentrations and the related growth rate both continue to rise (see coral & yellow lines).  Since the 60's, annual increases have risen from less than 1ppm to 3ppm/yr.  If there is good news, it is that concentrations of the 16 Greenhouse Gases as tracked by the NASA GHG Index are growing more slowly (1.2% annually rather than the near 3%/yr back in the early 80's.  This is thanx to headway in the methane and CFC fronts.  The infamous Al Gore graph spike (the stepladder one) is pure fantasy.  Its absurd 800-ppm peak was based on an upward spike in co2 associated with the 1998 El Niño.  This episode is viewable via the co2 emission growth rate in the chart below.  The 2001 IPCC Report, while well intentioned, applied an extrapolated exponential increase in co2 and temp's based on that anomaly.


click a chart to view more charts & discussion @ my Climate Change venue....


Fossil Fuels Contribution to Atmospheric co2 Concentrations:  423ppm Peak in 2029

March 28th delayed FreeVenue public release of Dec 28th MemberVenue guidance ~ The 2011 annual analysis by Trendlines Research of fossil fuels emissions indicates their contribution should result in a peak of atmospheric co2 concentration of 423-ppm in 2029.  It should be noted that while rising co2 concentration levels exhibit a correlated upwards tracking with total emissions, the decay pulse would indicate residual co2 will not follow the post peak downward path of emissions as quickly.  Most co2 remains for a hundred years and traces linger for almost a millennium.  By Year 2100, co2 will have declined to only 348-ppm ... taking us back to 1980 concentrations.  The long-term effect of this anthropogenic influence appears to be a delaying of the next glacial event from 7000 AD to the next harmonic in 40000 AD.

Underlying the simultaneous total emissions & co2 concentration peak in 2029 are a coal emissions peak in 2025;  PEAK DEMAND of All Liquids in 2029 (100-Mbd);  and a natural gas emissions peak in 2035.  These updated findings of Freddy Hutter's original Dec/2007 study continues to contrast substantially with the consensus view represented by the Hansen & Kharecha white paper (NASA Nov/2007) suggesting co2 will peak @ 585-ppm in Year 2100.  It assumes a 96-Mbd oil peak in 2016 - but is based on a 2003 study by EIA/Wood.

The Trendlines Research study is founded on a premise that the GDP/Energy Demand scenarios within IPCC 2001 were overly optimistic in the sense they assumed the growth accompanying increases in population and rising disposable incomes in the BRIC nations would be fueled by fossil fuels.  Unfortunately, there isn't enuf oil, coal and natural gas left in the ground to feed the magnificent projected Demand.

   

Historic Tracking of (ASPO-IE) Colin Campbell Depletion Model1989-2011

March 27th delayed FreeVenue public release of Dec 27th MemberVenue guidance ~ Today's update adds Colin Campbell's May/2011 Outlook.  It re-confirms his position All Liquids peaked @ 85-mbd in 2008 (despite EIA data to the contrary) and is founded on a 2,52334-Gb URR (up 89-Gb from last year).  The chart tracks all the production profile revisions over his career.  Its forecasts of Peak Year have ranged from 1989 to 2012.  In fact, December marks the 22nd anniversary of Campbell's initial All Liquids declaration that oil had indeed peaked.  To be accurate ... a sub-peak.  In Dec/1989, he declared All Liquids production had reached its physical limits @ 66-mbd and would never again attain the 67-Mbd Peak back in 1979.

Campbell's estimates for Peak Rate span from that virgin call of a 66 Mbd sub-peak in 1989 to his 2008 forecast of a 97 Mbd peak in 2010.  His underlying All Liquids URR estimates range from 1575-Gb (1989) to 2900-Gb (2002).  TRENDLiners may have notice my last three annual chart revisions have excluded Campbell's 1991, 1996, 1997 & 1998 projections.  I determined those studies forecast Regular Conventional Oil ... not All Liquids, and only led to unnecessary confusion.  His current (2011) forecast for RCO can be compared to the only three other such projections for light sweet crude at my Scenarios venue.

See how the 2010 ASPO Depletion Model measures up against other failed outlooks in our Invalidated Scenarios presentation & compared agin Tier-1 URR estimates.

click here to see how the latest (2011) Campbell Depletion Model measures up against the only other three studies addressing Regular Conventional Oil (light sweet crude)

click chart for full discussion & more at the Peak Oil History venue...

   

URR/EUR Highlights

Oil Initially in Place (OIIP):  19-Tb.

URR avg:  4,174-Gb (doubled since 1995) & rising 22-Gb for each $1/barrel crude price increase

Remaining Resource:  2,886-Gb (doubled since Y2k)

Inferred Depletion:  31%

Remaining Resource/Annual Production Ratio:  90  (record low:  44 in 1995)

Proved Reserves:  1,256-Gb  (doubled since 1978) & growing by 49-Gb/yr  (10-yr avg)

Past Consumption:  1,288-Gb  (to 2011/12/31 excl 5-Gb BTL)

March 26th delayed FreeVenue public release of Dec 26th MemberVenue guidance ~ Today's compilation update figures from BP, Brandt & Farrell, Campbell, EIA, ExxonMobil, Laherrère, Total & my own Hutter Peak Scenario-2500Today's URR study Avg is 118-Gb higher than last year and 82-Gb less than the avg inferred within the last monthly update of our 16-model Tier-1 Scenarios Presentation.  Its slightly different mix of practitioners has a URR Avg of 4,256-Gb.


URR Growth Rate Vs Consumption

Chart#2 compares the growth rate of the 22-model Avg with OGJ & BP.  It is seen the recent high-price regime fuelled favourable economics of previously thought fringe contingent (sub-commercial) resources.  Discovery, development and technology advancements (especially of non-conventionals) fuelled a growth pace of 128-Gb/yr (4.9%) since 1996.  This far surpasses URR's growth of 30-Gb/yr (2.3%) from 1957-1995.

Unsustainable crude prices ($129/barrel high - July/2008) drove discoveries, exploration, and conversion of sub-commercial (contingent) resources over to the economic side of the ledger.  But, subsequent sub-$90 pricing was a serious dampener of that headiness.  Viewed via the 3-yr rolling average of the 22-models, additions to URR peaked @ 420-Gb in 2008, the growth rate slipping to 0-Gb in 2011.  My analysis reveals over the last ten years URR has risen 22-Gb for every $1/barrel price increase.  Similarly, each higher dollar added 2-Gb of Proved Reserves.

click a chart for full discussion, tables & related graphs @ URR/EUR venue...

   

1996

Campbell URR components

2011
1,650 Original pre-1996 Discoveries 1,650
0 post-1995 backdates 417
0 post-1995 net discoveries 362
150 future Conventional allowance   75
000 future Non-Conv allowance 19
1,800-Gb  

2,523-Gb

Sans ASPO backdating ... no longer "running out of oil"

March 25th delayed FreeVenue public release of Dec 25th MemberVenue guidance - As I predicted in 2007, global All Liquids URR/EUR is headed for 6-Tb ... not the ultra conservative resource projected by Colin Campbell of ASPO-IE.  Colin Campbell published his first Historical Discoveries graph in 1996.  It was based on his estimated URR of 1800 billion barrels (Gb) and was comprised of 1650-Gb of Discovered crude & a 150-Gb allowance for probable Future Discoveries.  His 2007 version (at left) is misleading in the sense that its backdating methodology gives the perception of "a well running dry".

My 2007 chart revealed for the first time how ASPO had stealthily hid record levels of Discoveries & Reserve Growth by clever and non-transparent backdating.  The chart's hashed yellow bars illustrate what this ASPO Discoveries Chart would look like w/o the deceptive backdating.  Now, four years later, the tall lime bars emphasize dramatically why Colin Campbell & ASPO have never updated their classic graph!

The gloomy chart was given wide dissemination at a time when ASPO had been hijacked by the McPeaksters ... a fringe fraternity that has been promoting "imminent" Peak Oil since 1989.  I consider the premise behind the practice of backdating as sound.  However, McPeaksters have chose to depict the measure with an utter disregard for transparency.  IMHO, this was done to mislead and cause alarmism.  Today's revelations leave McPeaksters stymied in defending their "well running dry" or "running out of oil" rhetoric.

The new chart depicts BP's increases in URR for 2007, 2008, 2009 & 2010 ... increasing their own URR to 2,787-Gb.  In comparison, my 22-model URR estimates study averages 3,820-Gb & my 15-model Tier-1 Depletion Scenarios project infers All Liquids URR is 4,330-Gb.  My own PS-2500 model presently gauges URR to be 7.928-Gb.  Colin Campbell has raised his URR by another 89-Gb to 2,523-Gb this year.

The McPeakster doom position is completely undermined by the realization the growth trend has resumed its post-2006 pace, with an avg 66-Gb/yr in additions by BP.  That's double the rate of annual consumption!  The prospect of Discoveries dwindling to nothingness as shown in ASPO's 2007 depiction is absurd.  Campbell expects only 75-Gb of future discoveries of Regular Conventional & 19-Gb of non-Conventional resource over the next century.

click chart for full discussion & URR venue...

   

  Barrel Meter Compared to 13 Recognized Long-Term 2035 Crude Oil Price Forecasts

March 24th delayed FreeVenue public release of Dec 24th guidance @ our MemberVenue ~ Today's chart compares the Trendlines Barrel Meter monthly revision to updated annual price outlooks by Adam Sieminski of Deutsche Bank, EIA, IEA, OPEC, Boone Pickens & Chris Skrebowski.

A new annotation added to the chart today is Freddy Hutter's "Peak Demand Barrier".  In Oct/2011 it was proposed in his TrendLines Barrel Meter model that global oil consumption ceases to grow when the USA contract crude price exceeds this definitive Petroleum/GDP ratio.  The thesis further suggests the natural Geologic Peak of 103-Mbd in 2031 will be pre-empted by Peak Demand upon permanent breach of the PDB threshold in 2029 when oil surpasses $213/barrel hence holding consumption to the 100-Mbd at that juncture.

The Barrel Meter has been unique in its tracking of oil fundamentals as components of crude price since 1999.  The recent update calculates today's $103 price to be a 27% premium over crude's Fundamental Fair Value.  US$ Debasement since early 2009 remains a $15 price component.  This new revision proposes spiking activity in 2008 & 2011 is related to newborn cyclicity within oil fundamentals and additional spikes can be expected in 2015, 2018 & 2021.

The Barrel Meter currently forecasts that failing either any major geopolitical event or OPEC intervention at their June convention, much improving fundamentals should see oil decline to $63 by Sept/2012.  It maintains a price ceiling to any spiking activity of the monthly avg exists as represented by another definitive Petroleum/GDP ratio ... the Demand Destruction Barrier.  Between these two lines is the price point (currently $121) which can induce economic Recessions among the G-20 nations (as occurred in 2009).  The Trendlines Gas Pump reveals a similar critical price level - the USA Light Vehicle Sales Barrier - the price at which rising gasoline prices cause collapse in the auto manufacturing sector.  This occurred in 1980, 1990, 2007 & Spring 2011.  It is $3.37/gallon ($102/barrel oil) today.

The Barrel Meter imports data on projected extraction costs, spare production capacity & business cycles from the Peak Scenario 2500 depletion model.  A similar analysis for gasoline price is featured via the Gas Pump presentation.

click chart for more price discussions, tables & graphs...

   

World Production Records:  New Monthly Consumption Records Improbable 'til Crude Prices Subside

Feb 7 2012 delayed FreeVenue public release of Nov 7th MemberVenue guidance ~ The pace of flow rates indicates a new global Annual Production record of 87.8 Mbd is being set in 2011 A new global Quarterly Production record of 89.0 Mbd was set in 2011Q3September 2011 gains distinction for the all time global Monthly Production record:  89.1 Mbd.  Production is on track to break 90 in January 2013 and 95 in 2019.

A new Quarterly record for Demand of 89.3 Mbd was set in 2011Q3.  September 2011 also set a new high mark for Monthly Demand:  89.9 Mbd ... an incredible leap from the Recession low for Consumption of 82.5-mbd in May 2009.  Because the USA contract crude price currently surpasses the Barrel Meter's Peak Demand Barrier ($102/barrel), it is improbable consumption levels will increase 'til oil prices subside...

Trendlines Research's global All Liquids Underlying Decline Rates Observed:  2011 - 3.4% (2.94mbd);  1970-2009 Avg - 2.7%

click a chart for World Oil Production Records venue

   

Sept 9th 2009 ~ Chart reveals major new oil sources as well as nations with major decline.
 

 

 

 

 

theOilDrum Peak

With their misinformation agenda revealed, hits are down over 50% at theOilDrum this year!

A hijack of the site by the lunatic fringe is virtually complete...

common sense prevails

June 1 2009 ~ In 1989, McPeaksters proclaimed that All Liquids would never exceed that year's 66-mbd flow rate.

They repeated the declaration in 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Y2k 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 & 2007

July 2008 production smashed monthly records with a new marker of 86.7-mbd

It is indeed ironic that as McPeaksters announced for the 20th time last Summer that 2008 was Peak "for sure" ... annual flow rate was a full 20-mbd over their virgin declaration!

Pundits at theOilDrum, PeakOil.com, Jeff Rubin & forecaster extraordinaire Matt Simmons were the main originators/disseminators of the disruptive 2007/2008 rumours that both the giant Ghawar well & general Saudi Arabia production were in Terminal Decline.

 

Feb 2007 ~ This graph is the new battle flag of theOilDrum forum.  Yup, all the marbles on one call.  Remember them?  They are the pundit alarmists (Mainstream Media calls them wacko's) that in October 2004 published that the USA was entering an economic Recession.  Oops.  Well, they're back...

TOD's February 2007 prediction:

The green line shows that Saudi Arabia crude supply of 8.7-mbd of January 2007 is headed to 6.5-mbd by Autumn 2011  ... or as low as 4-mbd!

They published it the exact same day that Colin Campbell published a graph showing Saudi Arabia won't decline until 2025 & he changed the ASPO Peak Oil Date to 2011 ...

So, who has got it very wrong?  TOD or ASPO?  Let's see if TOD can do better than Matt Simmons, eh!

Note - Saudi Arabia's supply output target for Autumn 2011 is 10.5-mbd ... right off the top of his graph!

------------------

Mar 13 2009 Update:  To the chagrin of TheOilDrum McPeaksters, KSA extraction rose from 8.6 to 9.5-mbd by June 2008, at which time Saudi Aramco was forced to submit to OPEC quota restrictions.  Even after these production cuts, KSA is still far above the 7.2-mbd predicted for March 2009 by TOD's Stuart Staniford.  More on KSA

June 19, 2011 Update:  It just gets worse over at theOilDrum forecast dept.  Was crude flow 4.9-mbd on April 1 2011?  Or was crude 6.6-mbd?  No ... Saudi Arabia regular conventional crude oil was 9.2-mbd !

 

 

 

 

 

Matt Simmons, forecaster extraordinaire!

 

 

PEAK TOD-USA & TOD-Europe ... theOilDrum Hijacked by McDoomers !!

                                                    

TheOilDrum's counter says it all:  TOD has Peaked.  Several weeks ago, i warned the new doomster Moderator (Leanan) that the forum was collapsing in remarkably similar fashion to YahooEnergyResources, a discussion Group hijacked by the McDoomers back in 2004.

Feb 2007 ~ Peak Oil Theory has been replaced as focus at theOilDrum by 100's of ad nauseum daily posts on DieOFF, the coming USA Depression, pending collapse of the world's currencies & hate posts against their President, Congress, the Federal Reserve, all agencies' statistics, the IMF, the UN & anybody that doesn't agree that Oil peaked in 2005. I predicted in January that the conversation was about to deteriorate to discussing human poop for fertilizer use by their nihilist posters that moved to the mountains and are awaiting the anti-christ and the Global Warming induced Great Flood. Well, last week "humanure" was the topic of the day by the lunatic fringe that has hijacked that once excellent forum. It's a cult that gleefully awaits the the collapse of the USA with a desire to turn the evil Empire into an agrarian society in Old Order Amish/Mennonites fashion with no electricity, planes or cars. After almost 2 years, i'm oudda there ~ TOD has PEAKED...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Pew Centre on Climate Change, 2004

 

Jan 16 2007 ~ In Dec 2003, Samsam Bakhtiari of Iran proposed via his WOCAP-2 Model that Peak Oil would be upon us in 2006 with a Peak Rate of 81-mbd.  We see  in this graph that he miscalculated by 4-mbd (compared to blue line actual).  But now he is telling supporters that his projection excluded some oils (proc gains).  If that was his intent, his pre-forecast baseline (prior to 2004) should match the RED line.  If All Liquids was indeed his intent, his Black line should mirror the yellow ASPO line and the green 2003 IEA line.  U be the Judge...

OTOH, Mr Bakhtiari has the sole model that suggests a pre-2010 Peak.  Can he hit it out of the park for redemption?  Stay tuned ...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 spe classifications

 

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