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[New!]Jan update of TRENDLines Peak Oil Depletion Tier-1 Scenarios:  15-model consensus infers 97-mbd Peak in 2027

[New!]update of TRENDLines Peak Oil Depletion Peak Oil Depletion Archive of Invalidated Scenarios:  downgrade of Sadad al Husseini Outlook from Tier-1 status

[New!]Jan update of freddy hutter's  Peak Scenario-2500 Oil Depletion model:  PEAK DEMAND (100-Mbd) Triggered by $213/barrel Crude in 2029

[New!]  Jan update of TRENDLines Barrel Meter ~ Crude could Spike to $148 if Hormuz Blockaded

[New!]  Jan update of TRENDLines Gas Pump ~ Price Components & Crack Spread for USA Gasoline

[New!]  2011 update of Saudi Arabia Crude Supply Targets & MSC

[New!]  update of legacy  Saudi Arabia crude production forecasts by Husseini & theOilDrum

[New!]climate ~ Current trends indicate 695-730ppm Atmospheric Concentrations of co2 in 2100 ... but Trendlines Target is 423ppm in 2025

[New!]climate ~ Update of Trendlines Target for Fossil Fuel Contribution to Atmospheric co2 Concentrations:  423 ppm in 2029

[New!]Historic Tracking of (ASPO-IE) Colin Campbell Depletion Model:  1989-2011

[New!]update of Trendlines 22-model URR Estimates  & URR Annual Growth vs Consumption

[New!]Update of Campbell/ASPO Stealth Discoveries chart

[New!]  Barrel Meter compared to 13 Recognized long-term (2035) Crude Oil Price Forecasts

[New!]2011 update of Trendlines URR/EUR Linearizations chart

[New!]Regular Conventional Oil  2030 projections ~ Colin Campbell (38-mbd) vs Freddy Hutter (58-mbd)

 

   update of the Trendlines Peak Oil Depletion Tier-2 Scenarios:  introduces the 2011 Outlook by Charles Maxwell
   Quarterly Production for the Top 7 Nations ~ Saudi Arabia blasts Past Russia
   World Production Records:  New Monthly Consumption Records Improbable 'til Crude Prices Subside
       
   McPeaksters Declare Top for 20th Year ... 1989 to 2008 ... Milestone to Celebrate?  Or Peak for theOilDrum?

 Scroll down for[New!]FreeVenue charts  ~  click graph for more background & topic venue

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TRENDLines Peak Oil Depletion Tier-1 Scenarios:  April 26 2012 delayed FreeVenue public release of Jan 26th MemberVenue guidance ~ Today's monthly revision:  (a) updates Tier-1 Outlooks by BP, EIA & my own Hutter Peak Scenario-2500 & (b) downgrades the Sadad al Husseini Outlook from Tier1 to Invalidated

Consensus based on 15-model Tier-1 avg:

          Peak Oil:  97 Mbd in 2027

          Post-peak Decline Rate 'til 2050:  0.8%/yr avg

          The year 50% of URR/EUR has been extracted:  2038

          The year flow breaches below today's 88-Mbd:  2044

          The year flow drops to ½ of today's 88-Mbd:  2092

          The year we virtually run out of oil:  2305  (less than 8-Mbd & mostly BTL)

          URR/EUR:  4,331 Gb  (1,288-Gb consumed to 2011/12/31 excl 5-Gb BTL)

          Reserves req'd 2012 'til 2027 Peak:  536-Gb

          Today's Global Depletion:  30% of URR  (Net Depletion Rate:  1.1%/yr)

click chart for Tier-2 & many more graphs, tables & discussion...

Trendlines Peak Oil Depletion Archive of Invalidated Outlooks ~ April 26 2012 delayed FreeVenue public release of Jan 26th MemberVenue guidance:  downgrade of Sadad al Husseini Outlook from Tier-1 status

In keeping with the methodology practice of striving for consensus integrity, I have the unfortunate task of downgrading the Sadad al Husseini Outlook from Tier-1 to Invalidated status.  Originally a 2007 study with its peak updated in 2010, the effort becomes the latest victim where actual production (88-Mbd) has exceeded the predicted Peak Rate (87-Mbd  2013-2019 plateau).  I look forward a future revision by Sadad for reinstatement consideration...

click chart for Tier-2, Tier-1, Regular Conventional & many more graphs, tables & discussion...

   

April 25th delayed FreeVenue public release of Jan 25h MemberVenue guidance ~ monthly update of Freddy Hutter's Peak Scenario-2500 Oil Depletion Model

Highlights:

        Competing Peaks:  100-Mbd DEMAND PEAK 2029 vs 103-Mbd GEOLOGIC PEAK 2031

        Post-Peak Decline Rate:  0.8%/yr avg 'til 2050

        2011 Capacity:  92-Mbd incl global Surplus Capacity of 4-Mbd

        URR/EUR:  7,941-Gb  (consumed to 2011/12/31:  1,288-Gb excl 5-Gb BTL)

        Reserves req'd 2012 'til 2029 Peak:  610-Gb

        Depletion of URR:  16%      Annual Gross Depletion Rate:  0.4%  (Net:  0.5%)

        The year flow breaches below 2011 level of 88 Mbd:  2046

        The year 50% of URR consumed:  2103

        The year All Liquids (excl BTL) runs out:  2496        Light Sweet Crude (RCO):  2103

        Underlying Decline Rate Observed 2011:  3.2% (2.79 Mbd) of global All Liquids

click graph for more PS-2500 charts, tables & full discussion...

   

  Barrel Meter Crude could Spike to $148 if Hormuz Blockaded

April 24th delayed FreeVenue public release of Jan 24th MemberVenue guidance ~ The USA contract crude price averaged $105 in December, down $3 over the last thirty days ... 32% over its $79/barrel Fundamentals Fair Value.  USA Contract Crude is the volume weighted avg of three dozen grades and blends produced in and/or imported to the USA.  Typically this can range from a 10% discount for Canada Heavy to a 20% premium for Malaysia Tapis Light.  Confidence levels suggest the monthly avg could exhibit a trading range spanning $78 to $113/barrel thru the balance of Q1 & Q2.

Global production has increased dramatically from the Recession low of 83.1 Mbd (Jan/2009), setting yet another monthly record (90.2-Mbd) in Dec/2011 and a new quarterly record of 89.5 Mbd (2011Q4).  The oil sector pace has shattered last year's annual record with a new mark of 87.4-Mbd and monthly production is poised to break the 95-Mbd threshold in 2015 & the 100-Mbd marker in 2028.  At this time, it appears the natural GEOLOGIC PEAK of 105-Mbd in 2030 is likely to be pre-empted by PEAK DEMAND of 100-Mbd in 2029 upon crude oil surpassing $213/barrel.

Improving fundamentals, declining Windfall Profits and resolution of concern over Iran over the next several months should drive Crude Price down to $73 over the next 12 months and to $63 in 24 months.  Perceived cyclicality within the fundamentals leads me to expect the 2008 & 2011 spikes to be duplicated with future crests in 2016, 2020 & 2023.  Fear my Barrel Meter forecast of coming highs won't come to fruition may lead the more nervous and vulnerable OPEC members to again break quota discipline whilst publicly calling for intervention via production cuts at their scheduled June 2012 conference - and thereafter.

FFV Chart Inset ~ The dashed red line in the chart above depicts the "fair value" of crude oil considering its fundamentals:  worldwide Extraction Costs (production weighted), lack of global Surplus Capacity, international Inventory Draws (vs build) & US$ Debasement.  In general, Crude Price (red line) tracks reasonably close to oil's Fundamentals Fair Value The chart inset tracks variance from FFV.  Significant exceptions were:  (a) the 71% premium during the 1999/Y2k OPEC cutback;  (b) a 54% premium in the lead-up to the Iraq2 invasion; and (c) the -22% deficiency in Dec/2008 at the depth of the Great Recession.

click chart for graph to 2035, tables & more discussion...

see guidance from a year ago:  "Jan/2010" chart!

   

 the Gas Pump ~ Gasoline on path to $2.50/gal if OPEC doesn't intervene

April 23rd delayed FreeVenue public release of Jan 23rd MemberVenue guidance ~ All-grades retail gasoline averaged $3.33 in December ... down 11¢ over 30 days.  With the Gas Pump model projecting gasoline to trough @ $2.30/gal in Jan/2014, anxiety may spark an unnecessary OPEC intervention.  The current slide reflects increasingly favourable USA contract crude price fundamentals within the Barrel Meter model.

The primary forcing for the early 2011 multi-month price spike was clearly USDollar Debasement.  Mismanagement of federal budgeting (see Debt Wall analysis) since Barack Hussein Obama's inauguration adds 11¢/gal to current pump prices.  Recent IAEA disclosures have led to speculation on a third (Iraq/Syria/Iran) Israeli bombing raid on illicit Middle East nuclear facilities in February.  Gas Pump analysis suggests this could result in gasoline's monthly avg spiking to $4.40/gallon before being reversed by the model's Demand Destruction Barrier.

When the Pump Price surged above $3.26/gallon in Feb/2011, it breached the model's Light Vehicle Sales Barrier (a definitive Gasoline/GDP ratio) and the post-Recession rebound of unit sales was truncated the following month.

Since Nov/2009 the Barrel Meter has been warning there is a line-in-the-sand that if surpassed would strangle the post-Recession auto sector rebound.  New Car Sales were decimated upon crossing this same threshold in 1980, 1990 & 2007.  During the Great Recession, volume declined from a 16 million unit annual rate to 9 mu/yr.  Sales had climbed back to 13.2 mu/yr by Feb/2011, but then slipped to an 11.5 mu/yr pace when consumers were once again confronted with high gasoline/diesel prices.  Now that Pump Price has dipped back below the LVSB ($3.37/gal & $93/barrel crude), it is again probable for sales to surpass the 14 mu/yr pace.

click chart for more graphs, table & full discussion at the Gas Pump venue...

   

  Saudi Arabia MSC & Supply Outlook ... an update

March 31st delayed FreeVenue public release of Dec 31st MemberVenue guidance ~ Guidance from the Kingdom and/or Saudi Aramco with respect to MegaProjects & Surplus Capacity has been limited to fine-tuning over the past three years.  OPEC mandated quota restrictions had kept Supply below national targets in 2008, 2009 & 2010, but geopolitical issues surrounding Libya & Iran drew KSA from its reluctant role as swing producer.  Saudi Arabia set new monthly/quarterly/annual production records in 2011.  In 2009 I predicted that year would prove to be the Kingdom's Peak Year for Maximum Sustainable Capacity (MSC).  Today it appears the 12.5-Mbd high will be unchallenged and high idle capacity (2.0-Mbd) continues to hide this milestone event.  Last week's URR Linearization update re-confirms the Kingdom appears to be inflating their total resource base.  In 2009 I revealed their claim of 900-Gb was more like 212-Gb.  Nothing has changed.  All the announced MegaProjects are still underway.  Due to the subdued Demand growth since the Great Recession, final commissioning of Manifa will be stretched out to 2014.  The preservation of Surplus Capacity reconciled with new construction indicates the Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO) for regular conventional oil has climbed from 2.5% to to 3.6% per annum over the past two years.  RCO extraction should remain above 8.0-Mbd 'til 2021.


click a chart to visit the Saudi Arabia venue...


  Update of legacy Saudi Arabia Crude Production Forecasts by Husseini & theOilDrum

March 31st delayed FreeVenue public release of Dec 31st MemberVenue guidance ~ Here's my annual look-see at how the legacy predictions by Sadad al Husseini and theOilDrum's Stuart Staniford & Ace (Joker) have performed against facts on the ground.  Admittedly, all efforts have been stymied to some degree by OPEC mandated quota restrictions.  This is exactly why it was decided back in Feb/2009 to depict my Peak Scenario-2500's as Maximum Sustainable Capacity ... not Production.  The PS-2500 continues to project 2009 as Peak Year for MSC.  The Kingdom's 3.6% Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO) for regular conventional oil makes it almost impossible for any future announced megaprojects to have sufficient magnitude necessary to breach 2009's 12.5-Mbd high.  Based on last week's Linearization update, my estimate of KSA URR nudges up slightly to 211-Gb.  The Husseini Outlook takes a similar view with its production high (2023) of only 11-Mbd.  The Ace (joker?) over @ TOD forecasts extraction going south after 2011.  Meanwhile, the infamous high-case worst-case scenarios by theOilDrum's Stuart Staniford continue to be emblematic of the agenda-driven rhetoric, fabrication of data, misinformation and mass hysteria at that place.  Since 2002, McPeakster websites & pundits have been the best thing to ever have come along for oil sector shareholders & NOCs since the invention of the automobile.  The dozens of alarmist "news feeds" disseminated by McPeaksters each week contribute directly to the bottom line of Producers via windfall profits.

   

Year 2100 co2 ppm target is 348 ... not 695-730 indicated by IPCC premise of unlimited Fossil Fuel Resource

March 29th delayed FreeVenue public release of Dec 29th MemberVenue guidance ~ Update of the annual co2-GHG analysis by Trendlines Research reveals it is quite improbable co2 will ever attain the 695 ppm level for Year 2100 indicated by Mauna Loa gains, or the 730-ppm suggested by the trend of global readings.  Both lofty figures wrongly assume there is an unlimited supply of coal, oil and natural gas to quench the appetite of developing BRIC nations.  On the contrary, today's study reveals current estimates of remaining fossil fuel resource and declining growth rates for demand should see fossil fuel emissions peak in 2029.  This event would result in a maximum co2 atmospheric concentration of 423-ppm (393 today), declining to 348-ppm by Year 2100.

This analysis shows atmospheric co2 concentrations and the related growth rate both continue to rise (see coral & yellow lines).  Since the 60's, annual increases have risen from less than 1ppm to 3ppm/yr.  If there is good news, it is that concentrations of the 16 Greenhouse Gases as tracked by the NASA GHG Index are growing more slowly (1.2% annually rather than the near 3%/yr back in the early 80's.  This is thanx to headway in the methane and CFC fronts.  The infamous Al Gore graph spike (the stepladder one) is pure fantasy.  Its absurd 800-ppm peak was based on an upward spike in co2 associated with the 1998 El Niño.  This episode is viewable via the co2 emission growth rate in the chart below.  The 2001 IPCC Report, while well intentioned, applied an extrapolated exponential increase in co2 and temp's based on that anomaly.


click a chart to view more charts & discussion @ my Climate Change venue....


Fossil Fuels Contribution to Atmospheric co2 Concentrations:  423ppm Peak in 2029

March 28th delayed FreeVenue public release of Dec 28th MemberVenue guidance ~ The 2011 annual analysis by Trendlines Research of fossil fuels emissions indicates their contribution should result in a peak of atmospheric co2 concentration of 423-ppm in 2029.  It should be noted that while rising co2 concentration levels exhibit a correlated upwards tracking with total emissions, the decay pulse would indicate residual co2 will not follow the post peak downward path of emissions as quickly.  Most co2 remains for a hundred years and traces linger for almost a millennium.  By Year 2100, co2 will have declined to only 348-ppm ... taking us back to 1980 concentrations.  The long-term effect of this anthropogenic influence appears to be a delaying of the next glacial event from 7000 AD to the next harmonic in 40000 AD.

Underlying the simultaneous total emissions & co2 concentration peak in 2029 are a coal emissions peak in 2025;  PEAK DEMAND of All Liquids in 2029 (100-Mbd);  and a natural gas emissions peak in 2035.  These updated findings of Freddy Hutter's original Dec/2007 study continues to contrast substantially with the consensus view represented by the Hansen & Kharecha white paper (NASA Nov/2007) suggesting co2 will peak @ 585-ppm in Year 2100.  It assumes a 96-Mbd oil peak in 2016 - but is based on a 2003 study by EIA/Wood.

The Trendlines Research study is founded on a premise that the GDP/Energy Demand scenarios within IPCC 2001 were overly optimistic in the sense they assumed the growth accompanying increases in population and rising disposable incomes in the BRIC nations would be fueled by fossil fuels.  Unfortunately, there isn't enuf oil, coal and natural gas left in the ground to feed the magnificent projected Demand.

   

Historic Tracking of (ASPO-IE) Colin Campbell Depletion Model 1989-2011

March 27th delayed FreeVenue public release of Dec 27th MemberVenue guidance ~ Today's update adds Colin Campbell's May/2011 Outlook.  It re-confirms his position All Liquids peaked @ 85-mbd in 2008 (despite EIA data to the contrary) and is founded on a 2,52334-Gb URR (up 89-Gb from last year).  The chart tracks all the production profile revisions over his career.  Its forecasts of Peak Year have ranged from 1989 to 2012.  In fact, December marks the 22nd anniversary of Campbell's initial All Liquids declaration that oil had indeed peaked.  To be accurate ... a sub-peak.  In Dec/1989, he declared All Liquids production had reached its physical limits @ 66-mbd and would never again attain the 67-Mbd Peak back in 1979.

Campbell's estimates for Peak Rate span from that virgin call of a 66 Mbd sub-peak in 1989 to his 2008 forecast of a 97 Mbd peak in 2010.  His underlying All Liquids URR estimates range from 1575-Gb (1989) to 2900-Gb (2002).  TRENDLiners may have notice my last three annual chart revisions have excluded Campbell's 1991, 1996, 1997 & 1998 projections.  I determined those studies forecast Regular Conventional Oil ... not All Liquids, and only led to unnecessary confusion.  His current (2011) forecast for RCO can be compared to the only three other such projections for light sweet crude at my Scenarios venue.

See how the 2010 ASPO Depletion Model measures up against other failed outlooks in our Invalidated Scenarios presentation & compared agin Tier-1 URR estimates.

click here to see how the latest (2011) Campbell Depletion Model measures up against the only other three studies addressing Regular Conventional Oil (light sweet crude)

click chart for full discussion & more at the Peak Oil History venue...

   

URR/EUR Highlights

Oil Initially in Place (OIIP):  19-Tb.

URR avg:  4,174-Gb (doubled since 1995) & rising 22-Gb for each $1/barrel crude price increase

Remaining Resource:  2,886-Gb (doubled since Y2k)

Inferred Depletion:  31%

Remaining Resource/Annual Production Ratio:  90  (record low:  44 in 1995)

Proved Reserves:  1,256-Gb  (doubled since 1978) & growing by 49-Gb/yr  (10-yr avg)

Past Consumption:  1,288-Gb  (to 2011/12/31 excl 5-Gb BTL)

March 26th delayed FreeVenue public release of Dec 26th MemberVenue guidance ~ Today's compilation update figures from BP, Brandt & Farrell, Campbell, EIA, ExxonMobil, Laherrère, Total & my own Hutter Peak Scenario-2500 Today's URR study Avg is 118-Gb higher than last year and 82-Gb less than the avg inferred within the last monthly update of our 16-model Tier-1 Scenarios Presentation.  Its slightly different mix of practitioners has a URR Avg of 4,256-Gb.


URR Growth Rate Vs Consumption

Chart#2 compares the growth rate of the 22-model Avg with OGJ & BP.  It is seen the recent high-price regime fuelled favourable economics of previously thought fringe contingent (sub-commercial) resources.  Discovery, development and technology advancements (especially of non-conventionals) fuelled a growth pace of 128-Gb/yr (4.9%) since 1996.  This far surpasses URR's growth of 30-Gb/yr (2.3%) from 1957-1995.

Unsustainable crude prices ($129/barrel high - July/2008) drove discoveries, exploration, and conversion of sub-commercial (contingent) resources over to the economic side of the ledger.  But, subsequent sub-$90 pricing was a serious dampener of that headiness.  Viewed via the 3-yr rolling average of the 22-models, additions to URR peaked @ 420-Gb in 2008, the growth rate slipping to 0-Gb in 2011.  My analysis reveals over the last ten years URR has risen 22-Gb for every $1/barrel price increase.  Similarly, each higher dollar added 2-Gb of Proved Reserves.

click a chart for full discussion, tables & related graphs @ URR/EUR venue...

   

1996

Campbell URR components

2011
1,650 Original pre-1996 Discoveries 1,650
0 post-1995 backdates 417
0 post-1995 net discoveries 362
150 future Conventional allowance   75
000 future Non-Conv allowance 19
1,800-Gb  

2,523-Gb

Sans ASPO backdating ... no longer "running out of oil"

March 25th delayed FreeVenue public release of Dec 25th MemberVenue guidance - As I predicted in 2007, global All Liquids URR/EUR is headed for 6-Tb ... not the ultra conservative resource projected by Colin Campbell of ASPO-IE.  Colin Campbell published his first Historical Discoveries graph in 1996.  It was based on his estimated URR of 1800 billion barrels (Gb) and was comprised of 1650-Gb of Discovered crude & a 150-Gb allowance for probable Future Discoveries.  His 2007 version (at left) is misleading in the sense that its backdating methodology gives the perception of "a well running dry".

My 2007 chart revealed for the first time how ASPO had stealthily hid record levels of Discoveries & Reserve Growth by clever and non-transparent backdating.  The chart's hashed yellow bars illustrate what this ASPO Discoveries Chart would look like w/o the deceptive backdating.  Now, four years later, the tall lime bars emphasize dramatically why Colin Campbell & ASPO have never updated their classic graph!

The gloomy chart was given wide dissemination at a time when ASPO had been hijacked by the McPeaksters ... a fringe fraternity that has been promoting "imminent" Peak Oil since 1989.  I consider the premise behind the practice of backdating as sound.  However, McPeaksters have chose to depict the measure with an utter disregard for transparency.  IMHO, this was done to mislead and cause alarmism.  Today's revelations leave McPeaksters stymied in defending their "well running dry" or "running out of oil" rhetoric.

The new chart depicts BP's increases in URR for 2007, 2008, 2009 & 2010 ... increasing their own URR to 2,787-Gb.  In comparison, my 22-model URR estimates study averages 3,820-Gb & my 15-model Tier-1 Depletion Scenarios project infers All Liquids URR is 4,330-Gb.  My own PS-2500 model presently gauges URR to be 7.928-Gb.  Colin Campbell has raised his URR by another 89-Gb to 2,523-Gb this year.

The McPeakster doom position is completely undermined by the realization the growth trend has resumed its post-2006 pace, with an avg 66-Gb/yr in additions by BP.  That's double the rate of annual consumption!  The prospect of Discoveries dwindling to nothingness as shown in ASPO's 2007 depiction is absurd.  Campbell expects only 75-Gb of future discoveries of Regular Conventional & 19-Gb of non-Conventional resource over the next century.

click chart for full discussion & URR venue...

   

  Barrel Meter Compared to 13 Recognized Long-Term 2035 Crude Oil Price Forecasts

March 24th delayed FreeVenue public release of Dec 24th guidance @ our MemberVenue ~ Today's chart compares the Trendlines Barrel Meter monthly revision to updated annual price outlooks by Adam Sieminski of Deutsche Bank, EIA, IEA, OPEC, Boone Pickens & Chris Skrebowski.

A new annotation added to the chart today is Freddy Hutter's "Peak Demand Barrier".  In Oct/2011 it was proposed in his TrendLines Barrel Meter model that global oil consumption ceases to grow when the USA contract crude price exceeds this definitive Petroleum/GDP ratio.  The thesis further suggests the natural Geologic Peak of 103-Mbd in 2031 will be pre-empted by Peak Demand upon permanent breach of the PDB threshold in 2029 when oil surpasses $213/barrel hence holding consumption to the 100-Mbd at that juncture.

The Barrel Meter has been unique in its tracking of oil fundamentals as components of crude price since 1999.  The recent update calculates today's $103 price to be a 27% premium over crude's Fundamental Fair Value.  US$ Debasement since early 2009 remains a $15 price component.  This new revision proposes spiking activity in 2008 & 2011 is related to newborn cyclicity within oil fundamentals and additional spikes can be expected in 2015, 2018 & 2021.

The Barrel Meter currently forecasts that failing either any major geopolitical event or OPEC intervention at their June convention, much improving fundamentals should see oil decline to $63 by Sept/2012.  It maintains a price ceiling to any spiking activity of the monthly avg exists as represented by another definitive Petroleum/GDP ratio ... the Demand Destruction Barrier.  Between these two lines is the price point (currently $121) which can induce economic Recessions among the G-20 nations (as occurred in 2009).  The Trendlines Gas Pump reveals a similar critical price level - the USA Light Vehicle Sales Barrier - the price at which rising gasoline prices cause collapse in the auto manufacturing sector.  This occurred in 1980, 1990, 2007 & Spring 2011.  It is $3.37/gallon ($102/barrel oil) today.

The Barrel Meter imports data on projected extraction costs, spare production capacity & business cycles from the Peak Scenario 2500 depletion model.  A similar analysis for gasoline price is featured via the Gas Pump presentation.

click chart for more price discussions, tables & graphs...

   

Linearization Method: URR/EUR Comparisons 2011/12/23

Geo/Tech Method:

4,510-Gb All Liquids 7,966-Gb
1,990-Gb Regular Conventional Oil 1,999-Gb
210-Gb Saudi Arabian Crude

900-Gb

300-Gb NGL-GTL-Ref/Gain 1,727-Gb
205-Gb Bitumen/X-Heavy-CTL-Kerogen 3,038-Gb
180-Gb Deep Sea & Arctic 266-Gb

Mar 23rd delayed FreeVenue public release of Dec 23rd MemberVenue guidance ~ Linearization analysis is a guiding counterweight to geology/technology based Estimates of Ultimate Economical Recoverable Resource (URR/EUR). When compared, All Liquids succumbs to a 3,456-Gb differential, mostly attributable to Bitumen, CTL, GTL & Kerogen not yet reflecting their massive potential flows.

click chart for full discussion at URR/EUR venue...

   

Regular Conventional Oil Scenarios ~ 2030:  Colin Campbell (38-Mbd) vs Freddy Hutter (58-Mbd)

March 17th delayed FreeVenue public release of Dec 17 2011 guidance @ the MemberVenue ~ Over the years, there have been only 4 modellers worldwide who have published long term production profiles for Regular Conventional Oil ... the light sweet crude:  Albert Bartlett (USA), Colin Campbell (Ireland), M King Hubbert (USA) & TRENDLines' own Freddy Hutter (Yukon Canada)

Jean Laherrère & Colin Campbell have been the sector's most stalwart peak oil study practitioners.  Both have openly shared their annual analysis with fellow modellers for over two decades.  In May 2011, I coaxed Campbell to come out of retirement for a second time for another update.  Campbell's 2011 Depletion Model continues to extend RCO's dramatic 2.3%/yr post-peak decline rate thru to 2030.  It increases RCO's URR by 84-Gb to 2,047-Gb ... a career high estimate for Colin.

Conversely, the Hutter Peak Scenario-2500 (the sole active model) has trimmed last Spring's URR estimate by another 24-Gb to 2,038-Gb.  While Campbell forecasts the annual flow rate will deteriorate to 38-Mbd by 2030, Hutter takes the position 58-Mbd is more probable.  On the longer term, whereas Campbell predicts the annual Decline Rate softens after 2050, Hutter sees major resource constraint after 2038.

As a 73% component of All Liquids, the short-term demise of Regular Conventional Oil will determine whether Peak Oil is imminent or has another couple of decades to play out.  The PS-2500 model determined in 2008 the steep RCO decline (2.3% 2006-2009) was not the result of rapid depletion but rather a mirage masked by shifts in global Surplus Capacity.  As such, Hutter has been stalwart in his position RCO extraction had entered a twenty-year plateau, forming a solid foundation for non-conventionals to take All Liquids to ever increasing heights.  With light sweet crude rising to 64-Mbd in 2010, stable in 2011 and forecast to rise in 2012, the universe appears to be unfolding as it should...

click chart for RCO coverage at the Scenarios venue...

TRENDLines Tier-2 Peak Oil Depletion Scenarios:  Feb 24th delayed FreeVenue public release of Nov 24th guidance @ the MemberVenue ~

Today's revision introduces to Tier-2 the 2011 Outlook by Charles Maxwell

One of the long-term crude oil price forecasts charted by TRENDLines is a projection by American consultant Charles Maxwell ($286/barrel by 2020).  This month he unveiled his first All Liquids depletion Outlook, but it appears to be more-or-less a conjecture-based effort proposing a 90-Mbd peak in 2015.  At this time, it is relegated to the Tier-2 Scenarios presentation.

   

Saudi Arabia blasts past Russia

Feb 8th delayed FreeVenue public release of Nov 7th MemberVenue guidance ~ In a grudge match that spans three decades, Saudi Arabia has overcome OPEC quota restrictions to surpass Russia as World's top All Liquids producer.  In the process, the Kingdom broke its annual record (10.7 Mbd) and also set a new global quarterly record (11.3 Mbd) and global monthly record (11.4 Mbd) as it boosted flows in its role as swing producer to replace lost Libya extraction.  That said, it is improbable Russia's 1987 annual/quarterly/monthly records (11.5 Mbd) will ever be surpassed.

In 3rd place, the USA flow of 8.8 Mbd is down a tad from its recent Quarterly high.  Following are:  China (4.1), Iran (3.5), Canada (3.4) & Mexico (2.9 Mbd).

Trendlines Research's All Liquids Underlying Decline Rates Observed in 2011:  Worldwide 3.4% (2.9-mbd), Saudi Arabia 3.2% (0.35-mbd) & USA 2.5% (0.22-mbd)

click a chart for World Oil Production Records venue

World Production Records:  New Monthly Consumption Records Improbable 'til Crude Prices Subside

Feb 7 2012 delayed FreeVenue public release of Nov 7th MemberVenue guidance ~ The pace of flow rates indicates a new global Annual Production record of 87.8 Mbd is being set in 2011 A new global Quarterly Production record of 89.0 Mbd was set in 2011Q3September 2011 gains distinction for the all time global Monthly Production record:  89.1 Mbd.  Production is on track to break 90 in January 2013 and 95 in 2019.

A new Quarterly record for Demand of 89.3 Mbd was set in 2011Q3.  September 2011 also set a new high mark for Monthly Demand:  89.9 Mbd ... an incredible leap from the Recession low for Consumption of 82.5-mbd in May 2009.  Because the USA contract crude price currently surpasses the Barrel Meter's Peak Demand Barrier ($102/barrel), it is improbable consumption levels will increase 'til oil prices subside...

Trendlines Research's global All Liquids Underlying Decline Rates Observed:  2011 - 3.4% (2.94mbd);  1970-2009 Avg - 2.7%

click a chart for World Oil Production Records venue

   

Sept 9th 2009 ~ Chart reveals major new oil sources as well as nations with major decline.
 

 

 

 

 

theOilDrum Peak

With their misinformation agenda revealed, hits are down over 50% at theOilDrum this year!

A hijack of the site by the lunatic fringe is virtually complete...

common sense prevails

June 1 2009 ~ In 1989, McPeaksters proclaimed that All Liquids would never exceed that year's 66-mbd flow rate.

They repeated the declaration in 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Y2k 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 & 2007

July 2008 production smashed monthly records with a new marker of 86.7-mbd

It is indeed ironic that as McPeaksters announced for the 20th time last Summer that 2008 was Peak "for sure" ... annual flow rate was a full 20-mbd over their virgin declaration!

Pundits at theOilDrum, PeakOil.com, Jeff Rubin & forecaster extraordinaire Matt Simmons were the main originators/disseminators of the disruptive 2007/2008 rumours that both the giant Ghawar well & general Saudi Arabia production were in Terminal Decline.

 

Feb 2007 ~ This graph is the new battle flag of theOilDrum forum.  Yup, all the marbles on one call.  Remember them?  They are the pundit alarmists (Mainstream Media calls them wacko's) that in October 2004 published that the USA was entering an economic Recession.  Oops.  Well, they're back...

TOD's February 2007 prediction:

The green line shows that Saudi Arabia crude supply of 8.7-mbd of January 2007 is headed to 6.5-mbd by Autumn 2011  ... or as low as 4-mbd!

They published it the exact same day that Colin Campbell published a graph showing Saudi Arabia won't decline until 2025 & he changed the ASPO Peak Oil Date to 2011 ...

So, who has got it very wrong?  TOD or ASPO?  Let's see if TOD can do better than Matt Simmons, eh!

Note - Saudi Arabia's supply output target for Autumn 2011 is 10.5-mbd ... right off the top of his graph!

 

Mar 13 2009 Update:  To the chagrin of TheOilDrum McPeaksters, KSA extraction rose from 8.6 to 9.5-mbd by June 2008, at which time Saudi Aramco was forced to submit to OPEC quota restrictions.  Even after these production cuts, KSA is still far above the 7.2-mbd predicted for March 2009 by TOD's Stuart Staniford.  More on KSA

June 19, 2011 Update:  It just gets worse over at theOilDrum forecast dept.  Was crude flow 4.9-mbd on April 1 2011?  Or was crude 6.6-mbd?  No ... Saudi Arabia regular conventional crude oil was 9.2-mbd !

 

 

 

 

 

Matt Simmons, forecaster extraordinaire!

 

 

PEAK TOD-USA & TOD-Europe ... theOilDrum Hijacked by McDoomers !!

                                                    

TheOilDrum's counter says it all:  TOD has Peaked.  Several weeks ago, i warned the new doomster Moderator (Leanan) that the forum was collapsing in remarkably similar fashion to YahooEnergyResources, a discussion Group hijacked by the McDoomers back in 2004.

Feb 2007 ~ Peak Oil Theory has been replaced as focus at theOilDrum by 100's of ad nauseum daily posts on DieOFF, the coming USA Depression, pending collapse of the world's currencies & hate posts against their President, Congress, the Federal Reserve, all agencies' statistics, the IMF, the UN & anybody that doesn't agree that Oil peaked in 2005. I predicted in January that the conversation was about to deteriorate to discussing human poop for fertilizer use by their nihilist posters that moved to the mountains and are awaiting the anti-christ and the Global Warming induced Great Flood. Well, last week "humanure" was the topic of the day by the lunatic fringe that has hijacked that once excellent forum. It's a cult that gleefully awaits the the collapse of the USA with a desire to turn the evil Empire into an agrarian society in Old Order Amish/Mennonites fashion with no electricity, planes or cars. After almost 2 years, i'm oudda there ~ TOD has PEAKED...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Pew Centre on Climate Change, 2004

 

Jan 16 2007 ~ In Dec 2003, Samsam Bakhtiari of Iran proposed via his WOCAP-2 Model that Peak Oil would be upon us in 2006 with a Peak Rate of 81-mbd.  We see  in this graph that he miscalculated by 4-mbd (compared to blue line actual).  But now he is telling supporters that his projection excluded some oils (proc gains).  If that was his intent, his pre-forecast baseline (prior to 2004) should match the RED line.  If All Liquids was indeed his intent, his Black line should mirror the yellow ASPO line and the green 2003 IEA line.  U be the Judge...

OTOH, Mr Bakhtiari has the sole model that suggests a pre-2010 Peak.  Can he hit it out of the park for redemption?  Stay tuned ...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 spe classifications

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