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FreeVenue charts are generally posted 90-days after the guidance release
@ the
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charts, tables, archive & enhanced discussion)
McPeaksters Declare Top for
20th
Year ...
1989
to 2008
... Milestone to Celebrate? Or Peak for theOilDrum?
Scroll down
forFreeVenue
charts ~ click graph for more background & topic
venue
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wait? View our current guidance charts via: (a)
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TRENDLines Peak Oil Depletion Tier-1 Scenarios:
April 26 2012 delayed FreeVenue public release of Jan 26th
MemberVenue guidance ~ Today's
monthly revision: (a) updates Tier-1 Outlooks by BP, EIA & my own
Hutter
Peak Scenario-2500
& (b) downgrades the Sadad al Husseini Outlook from Tier1 to Invalidated
Consensus based on
15-model Tier-1 avg:
Peak Oil: 97 Mbd in 2027
Post-peak Decline Rate 'til 2050: 0.8%/yr avg
The year 50% of URR/EUR has been extracted: 2038
The year flow breaches below today's 88-Mbd: 2044
The year flow drops to ½ of today's 88-Mbd: 2092
The year we virtually run out of oil: 2305 (less than 8-Mbd &
mostly BTL)
URR/EUR:
4,331 Gb (1,288-Gb consumed to 2011/12/31 excl 5-Gb BTL)
Reserves req'd 2012 'til 2027 Peak:
536-Gb
Today's Global Depletion:
30% of URR (Net Depletion Rate: 1.1%/yr)
click chart for
Tier-2 & many more graphs, tables & discussion...
Trendlines Peak Oil Depletion Archive of
Invalidated Outlooks ~
April 26 2012 delayed FreeVenue public release of Jan 26th
MemberVenue guidance: downgrade of Sadad al Husseini Outlook
from Tier-1 status
In keeping with the methodology
practice of striving for consensus integrity, I have the unfortunate task of
downgrading the Sadad al Husseini Outlook from Tier-1 to Invalidated
status. Originally a 2007 study with its peak updated in 2010, the effort
becomes the latest victim where actual production (88-Mbd) has exceeded the
predicted Peak Rate (87-Mbd 2013-2019 plateau). I look forward a
future revision by Sadad for reinstatement consideration...
click chart for
Tier-2, Tier-1, Regular Conventional & many more graphs, tables &
discussion...
April 25th
delayed FreeVenue public release of
Jan 25h MemberVenue guidance ~
monthly update of Freddy Hutter's
Peak Scenario-2500 Oil Depletion
Model
The year flow breaches below 2011 level of 88 Mbd:
2046
The year 50% of URR consumed:
2103
The year All Liquids
(excl BTL) runs out:
2496 Light Sweet Crude (RCO):
2103
Underlying Decline Rate Observed
2011: 3.2% (2.79 Mbd) of
global All
Liquids
click graph for more PS-2500 charts, tables & full discussion...
Barrel Meter
:
Crude
could Spike to $148 if Hormuz Blockaded
April 24th delayed FreeVenue public release of Jan 24th MemberVenue
guidance ~
The USA contract crude price averaged $105 in December, down $3 over
the last thirty days ... 32% over its
$79/barrel Fundamentals Fair Value. USA Contract Crude is the
volume weighted avg of three dozen grades and blends produced in
and/or imported to the USA.
Typically this can
range from a 10% discount for Canada Heavy to a 20% premium for Malaysia
Tapis Light. Confidence levels suggest the monthly avg could
exhibit a trading range spanning $78 to $113/barrel thru the balance
of Q1 & Q2.
Global production has increased dramatically from the Recession
low of 83.1 Mbd (Jan/2009), setting yet another monthly record (90.2-Mbd) in
Dec/2011 and a new quarterly record
of 89.5 Mbd (2011Q4). The oil sector pace has shattered last year's
annual record with a new mark of 87.4-Mbd and monthly production
is poised to break the 95-Mbd threshold in 2015 & the 100-Mbd marker in 2028.
At this time, it appears the
natural GEOLOGIC
PEAK of 105-Mbd in 2030 is likely to be
pre-empted by PEAK DEMAND of 100-Mbd in 2029 upon crude oil
surpassing $213/barrel.
Improving
fundamentals, declining Windfall Profits and resolution of concern
over Iran over the next several months should drive Crude Price down to $73
over the next 12 months and to $63 in 24 months. Perceived cyclicality within the fundamentals leads
me to expect the 2008 & 2011 spikes to be duplicated with future crests in 2016,
2020 & 2023. Fear my
Barrel Meter
forecast of coming highs won't come to fruition may lead the more nervous and
vulnerable OPEC members to again break quota discipline whilst
publicly calling for intervention via production cuts at their scheduled June 2012
conference - and thereafter.
FFV Chart Inset
~ The dashed red
line
in the chart above depicts the "fair value"
of crude oil considering
its fundamentals: worldwide Extraction Costs (production
weighted), lack of global Surplus Capacity, international Inventory
Draws (vs build) & US$ Debasement. In general, Crude Price (red
line) tracks
reasonably close to oil's Fundamentals Fair Value.
The
chart inset tracks variance from FFV. Significant exceptions
were: (a) the 71% premium during the 1999/Y2k OPEC cutback;
(b) a 54% premium in the lead-up to the Iraq2 invasion; and (c) the
-22% deficiency in Dec/2008 at the depth of the Great Recession.
click chart for graph to 2035, tables & more discussion...
the
Gas Pump
~
Gasoline on path to $2.50/gal if OPEC doesn't intervene
April
23rd delayed
FreeVenue public release of Jan 23rd MemberVenue guidance ~
All-grades retail gasoline averaged $3.33 in December ... down 11¢
over 30 days. With the
Gas
Pump model
projecting gasoline to trough @ $2.30/gal in Jan/2014,
anxiety may spark an unnecessary OPEC intervention. The
current slide reflects increasingly favourable USA contract crude price
fundamentals within the
Barrel Meter
model.
The primary forcing
for the early 2011 multi-month price spike was clearly USDollar
Debasement. Mismanagement of federal budgeting (see
Debt Wall
analysis) since Barack Hussein Obama's inauguration adds 11¢/gal to
current pump prices. Recent IAEA disclosures have led to
speculation on a third (Iraq/Syria/Iran) Israeli bombing raid on
illicit Middle East nuclear facilities in February.
Gas Pump
analysis suggests this could result in gasoline's monthly avg spiking to
$4.40/gallon before being reversed by the model's Demand Destruction
Barrier.
When the Pump Price surged above
$3.26/gallon in Feb/2011, it breached the
model's Light Vehicle Sales Barrier (a
definitive Gasoline/GDP ratio) and the post-Recession rebound of
unit sales was truncated the following month.
Since
Nov/2009 the
Barrel Meter
has been warning there is a line-in-the-sand that if surpassed would
strangle the post-Recession auto sector rebound. New Car
Sales were decimated upon crossing this same threshold in 1980, 1990 &
2007. During the Great Recession, volume declined from a 16
million unit annual rate to 9 mu/yr. Sales had climbed back to
13.2 mu/yr by Feb/2011, but then slipped to an 11.5 mu/yr pace
when consumers were once again confronted with high gasoline/diesel prices.
Now that Pump Price has dipped back below the LVSB ($3.37/gal & $93/barrel crude),
it is again probable for sales to surpass the 14 mu/yr pace.
click chart for more graphs, table & full discussion at
the Gas Pump
venue...
Saudi Arabia MSC & Supply Outlook ... an update
March 31st delayed
FreeVenue public release of Dec 31st MemberVenue guidance ~ Guidance from the
Kingdom and/or Saudi Aramco with respect to MegaProjects & Surplus Capacity has
been limited to fine-tuning over the past three years. OPEC mandated quota restrictions had kept Supply below
national targets in 2008, 2009 & 2010, but geopolitical issues surrounding
Libya & Iran drew KSA from its reluctant role as swing producer. Saudi
Arabia set new monthly/quarterly/annual
production records in 2011. In 2009 I predicted that year
would prove to be the Kingdom's Peak Year for
Maximum Sustainable Capacity (MSC). Today it appears the 12.5-Mbd high
will be unchallenged and high idle capacity (2.0-Mbd) continues to hide this
milestone event. Last week's
URR Linearization update re-confirms the Kingdom appears to be inflating
their total resource base. In 2009 I revealed their claim of 900-Gb
was more like 212-Gb. Nothing has changed. All the announced MegaProjects are
still underway. Due to the subdued Demand growth since the Great Recession, final commissioning of Manifa
will be stretched out to 2014. The
preservation of Surplus Capacity reconciled with new construction indicates
the Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO) for regular conventional oil has
climbed from 2.5% to to 3.6%
per annum over the past two years. RCO extraction should remain above
8.0-Mbd 'til 2021.
click a chart
to visit the Saudi Arabia venue...
Update of legacy Saudi Arabia Crude Production Forecasts by Husseini
& theOilDrum
March 31st delayed
FreeVenue public release of Dec 31st MemberVenue guidance ~ Here's my annual look-see
at how the legacy predictions by Sadad al Husseini and
theOilDrum's Stuart Staniford & Ace (Joker) have performed against facts on
the ground. Admittedly, all efforts have been stymied to some degree
by OPEC mandated quota restrictions. This is exactly why it was decided
back in Feb/2009 to depict my Peak Scenario-2500's as Maximum
Sustainable Capacity ... not Production. The PS-2500 continues to project 2009 as Peak
Year for MSC. The Kingdom's 3.6% Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO)
for regular conventional oil makes it almost impossible for any future announced megaprojects to have
sufficient
magnitude necessary to breach 2009's 12.5-Mbd high. Based on last week's
Linearization update,
my
estimate of KSA URR nudges up slightly to 211-Gb. The Husseini Outlook takes a similar view with
its production high (2023) of only 11-Mbd. The Ace (joker?) over @ TOD forecasts
extraction going south after 2011. Meanwhile, the infamous high-case
worst-case scenarios by theOilDrum's Stuart Staniford continue to be emblematic
of the agenda-driven rhetoric, fabrication of data, misinformation and mass
hysteria at that place. Since 2002, McPeakster websites & pundits have
been the best thing to ever have come along for oil sector shareholders & NOCs
since the invention of the automobile.
The dozens of alarmist "news feeds" disseminated by McPeaksters each week
contribute directly to the bottom line of Producers via windfall profits.
Year 2100 co2 ppm target is 348 ... not 695-730 indicated by IPCC
premise of unlimited Fossil Fuel Resource
March 29th delayed FreeVenue public release of Dec 29th MemberVenue
guidance ~ Update of the annual co2-GHG analysis by Trendlines
Research reveals it is quite improbable co2 will ever attain the 695
ppm level for Year 2100 indicated by Mauna Loa gains, or the 730-ppm
suggested by the trend of global readings. Both lofty figures
wrongly assume there is an unlimited supply of coal, oil and natural
gas to quench the appetite of developing BRIC nations. On the
contrary, today's study reveals current estimates of remaining
fossil fuel resource and declining growth rates for demand should
see fossil fuel emissions peak in 2029. This event would
result in a maximum co2 atmospheric concentration of 423-ppm (393
today), declining to 348-ppm by Year 2100.
This analysis shows
atmospheric co2 concentrations and the related growth rate both
continue to
rise (see coral & yellow lines). Since the 60's, annual increases have risen from less than 1ppm
to 3ppm/yr. If there is good news, it is that concentrations
of the 16 Greenhouse Gases as
tracked by the NASA GHG Index are growing more slowly (1.2% annually
rather than the near 3%/yr back in the early 80's. This is thanx to headway in the methane and CFC fronts. The infamous Al Gore
graph spike (the stepladder one) is pure fantasy. Its absurd
800-ppm peak was based on an upward spike in co2 associated with the
1998 El Niño. This episode is viewable via the co2 emission
growth rate in the chart below. The 2001 IPCC Report, while
well intentioned, applied an extrapolated exponential increase in
co2 and temp's based on that anomaly.
click
a chart to view more charts & discussion @ my Climate Change venue....
Fossil Fuels Contribution to Atmospheric co2 Concentrations:
423ppm Peak in 2029
March 28th delayed FreeVenue public release of Dec 28th MemberVenue
guidance ~ The 2011 annual analysis by Trendlines Research of
fossil fuels emissions indicates their contribution should result in
a peak of atmospheric co2 concentration of 423-ppm in 2029. It
should be noted that while
rising co2 concentration levels exhibit a correlated upwards
tracking with
total emissions, the decay pulse would indicate residual co2 will not
follow the post peak downward path of emissions as quickly. Most co2
remains for a hundred years and traces linger for almost a
millennium. By Year 2100, co2 will have declined to only
348-ppm ... taking us back to 1980 concentrations. The long-term effect of this anthropogenic influence
appears to be a delaying of the next glacial event from 7000 AD to the next
harmonic in 40000 AD.
Underlying the simultaneous total emissions & co2 concentration peak
in 2029 are a coal emissions peak in 2025;
PEAK DEMAND of All Liquids in 2029 (100-Mbd); and a
natural gas emissions peak in 2035. These updated findings of
Freddy Hutter's original Dec/2007 study continues to contrast
substantially with the consensus view represented by the Hansen &
Kharecha white paper (NASA Nov/2007) suggesting co2 will peak @
585-ppm in Year 2100. It assumes a 96-Mbd oil peak in 2016 - but is based on a 2003
study by EIA/Wood.
The
Trendlines Research study is founded on a premise that the GDP/Energy Demand scenarios within IPCC 2001
were overly optimistic in the sense they assumed the
growth accompanying increases in population and rising disposable
incomes in the BRIC nations would be
fueled by fossil fuels. Unfortunately, there isn't enuf oil, coal
and natural
gas left in the ground to feed the magnificent projected Demand.
Historic Tracking of (ASPO-IE) Colin Campbell Depletion Model:
1989-2011
March
27th delayed
FreeVenue public release of Dec 27th MemberVenue guidance ~
Today's
update adds Colin Campbell's May/2011 Outlook. It re-confirms his
position
All Liquids peaked @ 85-mbd in 2008 (despite EIA data to the
contrary) and is founded on a
2,52334-Gb URR (up 89-Gb from last year). The chart tracks all the production profile
revisions over his career. Its forecasts of Peak Year have ranged from 1989 to
2012. In fact, December marks the 22nd anniversary of Campbell's
initial All Liquids declaration that oil had indeed peaked. To be
accurate ... a sub-peak. In Dec/1989, he declared All Liquids production had reached its physical limits @
66-mbd and would never again attain the 67-Mbd Peak back in 1979.
Campbell's estimates for Peak Rate
span from that virgin call of a 66 Mbd sub-peak in 1989 to his 2008
forecast of a
97 Mbd peak in 2010. His underlying All Liquids URR estimates range from
1575-Gb (1989) to 2900-Gb (2002). TRENDLiners may have notice my last three
annual
chart revisions have excluded Campbell's 1991,
1996, 1997 & 1998 projections. I determined those studies forecast Regular Conventional
Oil ... not All Liquids, and only led to unnecessary
confusion.
His current (2011) forecast for RCO can be compared to the only three
other such projections for light sweet crude at my
Scenarios
venue.
See how the
2010 ASPO Depletion Model measures up against other failed outlooks in our
Invalidated Scenarios
presentation & compared agin Tier-1
URR
estimates.
click here to see
how the latest (2011) Campbell Depletion Model measures up against
the only other three
studies
addressing Regular Conventional Oil (light sweet crude)
click chart
for full discussion & more at the Peak Oil History venue...
URR/EUR Highlights
Oil Initially in Place (OIIP):
19-Tb.
URR avg:
4,174-Gb (doubled since 1995) & rising 22-Gb for each $1/barrel crude price
increase
Remaining Resource: 2,886-Gb (doubled since Y2k)
Inferred
Depletion: 31%
Remaining Resource/Annual Production Ratio: 90 (record low:
44 in 1995)
Proved
Reserves: 1,256-Gb (doubled since 1978) & growing by 49-Gb/yr
(10-yr avg)
Past Consumption: 1,288-Gb
(to 2011/12/31 excl 5-Gb BTL)
March 26th delayed FreeVenue public release of Dec 26th MemberVenue
guidance ~ Today's
compilation update figures from
BP, Brandt & Farrell, Campbell, EIA, ExxonMobil, Laherrère, Total
& my own
Hutter
Peak
Scenario-2500.
Today's URR study Avg is 118-Gb
higher than last year and 82-Gb less than the avg inferred within
the last monthly update of our 16-model
Tier-1 Scenarios Presentation.
Its slightly different mix of practitioners has a URR Avg of
4,256-Gb.
URR Growth Rate Vs Consumption
Chart#2 compares the
growth rate of the 22-model Avg with OGJ & BP. It is seen the
recent high-price regime fuelled favourable economics of previously
thought fringe contingent (sub-commercial) resources.
Discovery, development and technology advancements (especially of
non-conventionals) fuelled a growth pace of 128-Gb/yr (4.9%) since
1996. This far surpasses URR's growth of 30-Gb/yr (2.3%) from
1957-1995.
Unsustainable crude
prices ($129/barrel high - July/2008) drove discoveries,
exploration, and conversion of sub-commercial (contingent) resources
over to the economic side of the ledger. But, subsequent
sub-$90 pricing was a serious dampener of that headiness.
Viewed via the 3-yr rolling average of the 22-models, additions to
URR peaked @ 420-Gb in 2008, the growth rate slipping to 0-Gb in
2011. My analysis reveals over the last ten years URR has
risen 22-Gb for every $1/barrel price increase. Similarly,
each higher dollar added 2-Gb of Proved Reserves.
click a chart for
full discussion, tables & related graphs @ URR/EUR venue...
1996
Campbell URR
components
2011
1,650
Original
pre-1996 Discoveries
1,650
0
post-1995
backdates
417
0
post-1995
net discoveries
362
150
future
Conventional allowance
75
000
future
Non-Conv allowance
19
1,800-Gb
2,523-Gb
Sans ASPO backdating ... no longer "running out of oil"
March
25th delayed FreeVenue public release of Dec 25th MemberVenue
guidance - As I predicted
in 2007, global All Liquids URR/EUR is headed for 6-Tb ... not the
ultra conservative resource projected by Colin Campbell of ASPO-IE.
Colin Campbell published his first Historical Discoveries graph
in 1996. It was based on his estimated URR of 1800
billion barrels (Gb) and was comprised of 1650-Gb of
Discovered crude & a
150-Gb
allowance for probable Future Discoveries. His 2007 version
(at left) is misleading in the sense that its backdating methodology
gives the perception of "a well running dry".
My 2007 chart
revealed for the first time how ASPO had stealthily hid record levels of Discoveries &
Reserve Growth by clever and non-transparent backdating. The
chart's hashed yellow bars illustrate what this ASPO Discoveries Chart would look like w/o the
deceptive backdating. Now, four years later, the tall lime
bars emphasize dramatically why Colin Campbell & ASPO have never
updated their classic graph!
The gloomy chart was
given wide dissemination at a time when ASPO had been hijacked by
the McPeaksters ... a fringe fraternity that has been promoting
"imminent" Peak Oil since 1989. I consider the premise behind
the practice of backdating as sound. However, McPeaksters have
chose to depict the measure with an utter disregard for
transparency. IMHO, this was done to mislead and cause
alarmism. Today's revelations leave McPeaksters stymied in defending
their "well running dry" or "running out of oil" rhetoric.
The new
chart depicts BP's increases in URR for 2007, 2008, 2009 & 2010 ...
increasing their own URR to 2,787-Gb. In comparison, my 22-model
URR estimates
study
averages 3,820-Gb &
my 15-model
Tier-1 Depletion Scenarios
project infers All Liquids URR is 4,330-Gb. My own
PS-2500 model presently gauges URR to be 7.928-Gb. Colin
Campbell has raised his URR by another 89-Gb to 2,523-Gb this year.
The McPeakster doom
position is completely
undermined by the realization the growth trend has resumed its
post-2006 pace, with an avg 66-Gb/yr in additions by BP. That's double the rate
of annual consumption! The prospect of Discoveries dwindling to nothingness as shown in
ASPO's 2007 depiction is absurd. Campbell expects only 75-Gb of
future discoveries of Regular Conventional &
19-Gb of non-Conventional resource over the next century.
click chart for full
discussion & URR venue...
Barrel Meter
Compared to 13 Recognized Long-Term 2035 Crude Oil Price
Forecasts
March
24th delayed FreeVenue
public release of Dec 24th guidance @ our MemberVenue ~ Today's
chart compares the
Trendlines Barrel Meter
monthly revision to updated annual price outlooks by Adam
Sieminski of Deutsche Bank, EIA,
IEA, OPEC, Boone Pickens & Chris Skrebowski.
A new annotation added
to the chart today is Freddy Hutter's "Peak Demand Barrier".
In Oct/2011 it was proposed in his
TrendLines Barrel Meter model
that global oil consumption ceases to grow when
the USA contract crude price exceeds this definitive Petroleum/GDP
ratio. The thesis further suggests the natural Geologic Peak
of 103-Mbd in 2031 will be pre-empted by Peak Demand upon permanent
breach of the PDB threshold in 2029 when oil surpasses $213/barrel
hence holding consumption to the 100-Mbd at that juncture.
The
Barrel Meter
has been unique in its tracking of oil fundamentals as components of
crude price since 1999. The recent update calculates today's
$103 price to be a 27% premium over crude's Fundamental Fair Value. US$ Debasement
since early 2009 remains a $15 price component. This new
revision proposes spiking activity in 2008 & 2011 is related to
newborn cyclicity within oil fundamentals and additional spikes can
be expected in 2015, 2018 & 2021.
The
Barrel Meter currently
forecasts that failing either any major geopolitical event or OPEC
intervention at their June convention, much improving fundamentals
should see oil decline to $63 by Sept/2012. It maintains a
price ceiling to any spiking activity of the monthly avg exists as
represented by another definitive Petroleum/GDP ratio ... the Demand
Destruction Barrier.
Between these two lines is the price point (currently $121) which
can induce economic Recessions among the G-20 nations (as occurred
in 2009). The
Trendlines
Gas Pump
reveals a similar critical price level - the USA Light Vehicle Sales
Barrier - the price at which rising gasoline prices cause collapse
in the auto manufacturing sector. This occurred in 1980, 1990,
2007 & Spring 2011. It is $3.37/gallon ($102/barrel oil)
today.
The
Barrel Meter
imports data on projected extraction costs,
spare production capacity & business cycles from the
Peak Scenario 2500
depletion model. A similar analysis for
gasoline price is featured via the
Gas Pump
presentation.
click chart for more
price discussions, tables & graphs...
Linearization Method:
URR/EUR Comparisons 2011/12/23
Geo/Tech Method:
4,510-Gb
All Liquids
7,966-Gb
1,990-Gb
Regular
Conventional Oil
1,999-Gb
210-Gb
Saudi Arabian Crude
900-Gb
300-Gb
NGL-GTL-Ref/Gain
1,727-Gb
205-Gb
Bitumen/X-Heavy-CTL-Kerogen
3,038-Gb
180-Gb
Deep Sea & Arctic
266-Gb
Mar 23rd
delayed FreeVenue public release of Dec 23rd MemberVenue guidance ~
Linearization analysis is a guiding counterweight to
geology/technology based Estimates of Ultimate Economical
Recoverable Resource (URR/EUR). When compared, All Liquids succumbs
to a 3,456-Gb differential, mostly attributable to Bitumen, CTL, GTL
& Kerogen not yet reflecting their massive potential flows.
click
chart for full discussion at URR/EUR venue...
Regular Conventional Oil Scenarios
~ 2030: Colin Campbell (38-Mbd) vs Freddy Hutter (58-Mbd)
March 17th delayed FreeVenue public release of Dec 17 2011 guidance
@ the MemberVenue ~
Over the years, there have been only
4 modellers worldwide who have published long term production profiles for
Regular Conventional Oil ... the light sweet crude: Albert Bartlett
(USA), Colin Campbell (Ireland), M King Hubbert (USA) &
TRENDLines' own Freddy Hutter (Yukon Canada)
Jean Laherrère & Colin Campbell have been the sector's
most stalwart peak oil study practitioners. Both have openly
shared their annual analysis with fellow modellers for over two decades.
In May 2011, I coaxed Campbell to come out of retirement for a
second time for another
update.
Campbell's 2011 Depletion Model continues to extend RCO's
dramatic 2.3%/yr post-peak decline rate thru to 2030.
It increases RCO's URR by 84-Gb to 2,047-Gb ... a career high
estimate for Colin.
Conversely, the Hutter
Peak Scenario-2500
(the sole active model) has trimmed last Spring's URR estimate by
another 24-Gb
to 2,038-Gb. While Campbell forecasts the annual flow rate
will deteriorate to 38-Mbd by 2030, Hutter takes the position
58-Mbd is more probable. On the longer term, whereas
Campbell predicts the annual Decline Rate softens after 2050,
Hutter sees major resource constraint after 2038.
As a 73% component of
All Liquids, the short-term demise of Regular Conventional
Oil will determine whether Peak Oil is imminent or has another
couple of decades to play out.
The
PS-2500 model determined in 2008 the steep RCO decline (2.3% 2006-2009)
was not the result of rapid depletion but rather a mirage masked by
shifts in global Surplus Capacity. As such, Hutter has been
stalwart in his position RCO extraction had entered a twenty-year
plateau, forming a solid foundation for non-conventionals to take
All Liquids to ever increasing heights. With light sweet crude
rising to 64-Mbd in 2010, stable in 2011 and forecast to rise in
2012, the universe appears to be unfolding as it should...
click chart for
RCO coverage at the Scenarios venue...
TRENDLines Tier-2 Peak Oil Depletion Scenarios:
Feb 24th
delayed FreeVenue public release of Nov 24th guidance @ the
MemberVenue ~
Today's
revision introduces to Tier-2 the 2011 Outlook by Charles Maxwell
One of the
long-term crude
oil price forecasts charted by TRENDLines is a projection by American
consultant Charles Maxwell ($286/barrel by 2020). This month he unveiled
his first
All Liquids depletion Outlook, but it appears to be more-or-less a
conjecture-based effort proposing a 90-Mbd peak in 2015. At this time, it
is relegated to the Tier-2 Scenarios presentation.
Saudi Arabia blasts past Russia
Feb 8th delayed FreeVenue public release of Nov 7th
MemberVenue guidance ~
In a
grudge match that spans three decades, Saudi Arabia has overcome
OPEC quota restrictions to surpass Russia as World's top All Liquids
producer. In the process, the Kingdom broke its annual record
(10.7 Mbd) and also set a new global quarterly record (11.3 Mbd) and
global monthly record (11.4 Mbd) as it boosted flows in its role as
swing producer to replace lost Libya extraction. That said, it
is improbable Russia's 1987 annual/quarterly/monthly records (11.5
Mbd) will ever be surpassed.
In 3rd place, the USA flow of 8.8
Mbd is down a tad from its recent Quarterly high. Following
are: China (4.1), Iran (3.5), Canada (3.4) & Mexico (2.9 Mbd).
Trendlines Research's
All Liquids Underlying Decline Rates Observed in 2011:
Worldwide 3.4% (2.9-mbd), Saudi Arabia 3.2% (0.35-mbd) &
USA 2.5% (0.22-mbd)
click a chart for World Oil Production Records venue
World
Production Records: New Monthly Consumption
Records Improbable 'til Crude Prices Subside
Feb 7
2012 delayed FreeVenue
public release of Nov 7th MemberVenue guidance ~
The pace of flow rates indicates a new global
Annual Production record
of 87.8
Mbd is being set in 2011.
A new global
Quarterly Production record of 89.0 Mbd
was set in 2011Q3.
September 2011 gains distinction for the all time
global Monthly Production record: 89.1 Mbd.
Production is on track to break 90 in
January 2013 and 95 in 2019.
A
new
Quarterly record for Demand
of
89.3 Mbd was set in 2011Q3. September
2011 also set a new high mark for Monthly Demand:
89.9 Mbd ... an incredible leap from the Recession
low for Consumption of 82.5-mbd in May 2009.
Because the USA contract crude price currently surpasses
the
Barrel Meter's Peak
Demand Barrier ($102/barrel), it is improbable
consumption levels will increase 'til oil prices
subside...
June 1 2009 ~ In 1989, McPeaksters proclaimed
that All Liquids would never exceed that year's 66-mbd flow rate.
They
repeated the declaration in
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Y2k 2001 2002 2003
2004 2005 2006 & 2007
July 2008 production
smashed monthly records with a new marker of 86.7-mbd
It is indeed ironic
that as McPeaksters announced for the 20th time last Summer that
2008 was Peak "for sure" ... annual flow rate was a full 20-mbd over
their virgin declaration!
Pundits at theOilDrum, PeakOil.com, Jeff Rubin & forecaster
extraordinaire Matt Simmons
were the main
originators/disseminators
of the disruptive 2007/2008 rumours that both the giant Ghawar well
& general Saudi Arabia production were in Terminal Decline.
Feb 2007 ~ This graph is the new
battle flag of theOilDrum forum. Yup, all
the marbles on one call. Remember them? They
are the pundit alarmists (Mainstream Media calls them
wacko's) that in October 2004 published that the USA was
entering an economic Recession. Oops.
Well, they're back...
TOD's February 2007 prediction:
The
green line
shows that Saudi Arabia crude supply of
8.7-mbd of January 2007 is headed to 6.5-mbd
by Autumn 2011
... or as low as 4-mbd!
They published it the exact same day that Colin
Campbell
published a graph showing Saudi Arabia won't decline
until 2025 & he changed the ASPO Peak Oil Date to
2011
...
So, who has got it very wrong? TOD or ASPO?
Let's see if TOD can do better than Matt Simmons, eh!
Note - Saudi Arabia's supply output target for Autumn
2011 is
10.5-mbd ... right off the top of his graph!
Mar 13
2009 Update: To the chagrin of TheOilDrum
McPeaksters, KSA extraction rose from 8.6 to 9.5-mbd by June 2008, at
which time Saudi Aramco was forced to submit to OPEC quota restrictions.
Even after these production cuts, KSA is still far above the 7.2-mbd
predicted for March 2009 by TOD's Stuart Staniford.
More on KSA
June 19, 2011
Update: It just gets worse over at theOilDrum forecast dept.
Was crude flow 4.9-mbd on April 1 2011? Or was crude 6.6-mbd?
No ... Saudi Arabia regular conventional crude oil was 9.2-mbd !
Matt Simmons, forecaster extraordinaire!
PEAK TOD-USA & TOD-Europe ... theOilDrum Hijacked by
McDoomers !!
TheOilDrum's counter says it all:
TOD has Peaked.
Several weeks ago, i warned the new doomster Moderator
(Leanan) that the forum was collapsing in remarkably
similar fashion to YahooEnergyResources, a discussion
Group hijacked by the
McDoomers back in 2004.
Feb 2007 ~ Peak Oil Theory has
been replaced as focus at theOilDrum by 100's of
ad nauseum daily posts on
DieOFF, the coming
USA Depression, pending
collapse of the world's currencies & hate posts against
their President, Congress, the Federal Reserve, all
agencies' statistics, the IMF, the UN & anybody that
doesn't agree that Oil peaked in 2005. I
predicted in January
that the conversation was about to deteriorate to
discussing human poop for fertilizer use by their
nihilist posters that moved to the mountains and are
awaiting the anti-christ and the Global Warming induced
Great Flood. Well, last week "humanure" was
the topic of the day by
the lunatic fringe that has hijacked that
once excellent forum. It's
a cult that gleefully
awaits the the collapse of the USA with a desire to turn
the evil Empire into an agrarian society in Old Order
Amish/Mennonites fashion with no electricity, planes or
cars. After almost 2 years, i'm oudda there ~ TOD has
PEAKED...
Pew Centre
on Climate Change, 2004
Jan 16 2007 ~ In Dec 2003, Samsam Bakhtiari of Iran
proposed via his WOCAP-2 Model that Peak Oil would be upon us in
2006 with a Peak Rate of 81-mbd. We see in this graph
that he miscalculated by 4-mbd (compared to blue line actual).
But now he is telling supporters that his projection excluded some
oils (proc gains). If that was his intent, his pre-forecast
baseline (prior to 2004) should match the RED line. If All
Liquids was indeed his intent, his Black line should mirror the
yellow ASPO line and the green 2003 IEA line. U be the
Judge...
OTOH, Mr
Bakhtiari has the sole model that suggests a pre-2010 Peak.
Can he hit it out of the park for redemption? Stay tuned ...
I'm pleased
to tell TRENDLiners this past Winter 82% of visitors were
International (113 nations: most from USA, UK,
Argentina, Australia, France, Italy, Spain, Austria, Germany & Hong Kong)
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