Scroll down forFreeVenue charts  ~  click graph for more background & topic venue

 90 days too long to wait?  View our current guidance charts via:  (a) $14/month access or (b) annual-membership special of $10/month or (c) $50 project-fee

Feb 15th delayed FreeVenue public release of Nov 15th MemberVenue guidance ~ monthly update of Freddy Hutter's Peak Scenario-2500 Oil Depletion Model

Highlights:

          Competing Peaks:  100 Mbd Demand Peak 2028 vs 105 Mbd Geologic Peak 2030

          Post-Peak Decline Rate:  0.4%/yr avg 'til 2050

        2011 Capacity:  93 Mbd incl global Surplus Capacity of 5 Mbd

          The year flow breaches below 2011 level of 88 Mbd:  2058

          URR/EUR:  8,006 Gb  (consumed to 2010/12/31:  1,261-Gb incl 4-Gb BTL)

          Depletion of URR:  16%      Annual Gross Depletion Rate:  0.4%  (Net:  0.5%)

          The year 50% of URR consumed:  2103

          The year oil  (excl BTL) runs out:  2496

        Underlying Decline Rate Observed 2011:  3.2% (2.8 Mbd) of global All Liquids

click graph for more PS-2500 charts, tables & full discussion...

Barrel Meter:  $204 Oil in 2028 will Induce Peak Demand

click chart for graph to 2021, tables & more discussion...

see guidance from a year ago:  "Jan/2011" chart!

Saudi Arabia blasts past Russia

Feb 8th delayed FreeVenue public release of Nov 7th MemberVenue guidance ~ In a grudge match that spans three decades, Saudi Arabia has overcome OPEC quota restrictions to surpass Russia as World's top All Liquids producer.  In the process, the Kingdom broke its annual record (10.7 Mbd) and also set a new global quarterly record (11.3 Mbd) and global monthly record (11.4 Mbd) as it boosted flows in its role as swing producer to replace lost Libya extraction.  That said, it is improbable Russia's 1987 annual/quarterly/monthly records (11.5 Mbd) will ever be surpassed.

In 3rd place, the USA flow of 8.8 Mbd is down a tad from its recent Quarterly high.  Following are:  China (4.1), Iran (3.5), Canada (3.4) & Mexico (2.9 Mbd).

Trendlines Research's All Liquids Underlying Decline Rates Observed in 2011:  Worldwide 3.4% (2.9-mbd), Saudi Arabia 3.2% (0.35-mbd) & USA 2.5% (0.22-mbd)

click a chart for World Oil Production Records venue

World Production Records:  New Monthly Consumption Records Improbable 'til Crude Prices Subside

Feb 7th delayed FreeVenue public release of Nov 7th MemberVenue guidance ~ The pace of flow rates indicates a new global Annual Production record of 87.8 Mbd is being set in 2011.  A new global Quarterly Production record of 89.0 Mbd was set in 2011Q3.  September 2011 gains distinction for the all time global Monthly Production record:  89.1 Mbd.  Production is on track to break 90 in January 2013 and 95 in 2019.

A new Quarterly record for Demand of 89.3 Mbd was set in 2011Q3.  September 2011 also set a new high mark for Monthly Demand:  89.9 Mbd ... an incredible leap from the Recession low for Consumption of 82.5-mbd in May 2009.  Because the USA contract crude price currently surpasses the Barrel Meter's Peak Demand Barrier ($102/barrel), it is improbable consumption levels will increase 'til oil prices subside...

Trendlines Research's global All Liquids Underlying Decline Rates Observed:  2011 - 3.4% (2.94mbd);  1970-2009 Avg - 2.7%

click a chart for World Oil Production Records venue

TRENDLines Peak Oil Depletion Invalidated Scenarios Archive ~ Jan 24th delayed FreeVenue public release of Oct 23rd MemberVenue guidance: update of Robt Hirsch outlook; Jean Laherrère 2011 update downgraded to Invalidated status from Tier-1

TRENDLiners will recognize French geologist Jean Laherrère as being the 3-peat winner of our "world's best vintage forecaster" title.  It is awarded for the most accurate pre-2001 prediction for the current year - similar to the Nobel Prize ... but w/o the money!  So it is awkward for me to announce today that Jean has slipped from Tier-1 status to Invalidated.  His 2010 Outlook forecast a 2011/2012 Peak Plateau of 87 Mbd.  This month's update amends the plateau to 2014-2016 but failed to revise the Peak Rate.  Therein lies the problem:  2011 is setting a new world record of 88 Mbd.  History trampled our star before the ink was dry!  And I await his new Outlook to reflect this surprising surge in production.

Robert Hirsch updated his Outlook this month, but it remains a very simple conjecture-based effort much inferior most studies.  The 2011 version revises last year's 87-Mbd Peak Plateau centered on 2014 to a seven-year band averaging 85 Mbd centered on 2013.  Even more pessimistic as to the future, its post-peak decline rate has been raised to 6% from an inferred 4% last year.  This reduces his inferred URR to 1,951 Gb (from 2,206 Gb).  As its target has been obviously far surpassed, Hirsch's Outlook retains its Invalidated status.

click chart for Tier-2, Tier-1, Regular Conventional & many more graphs, tables & discussion...

TRENDLines Peak Oil Depletion Tier-1 Scenarios:  Jan 23 2012 delayed FreeVenue public release of Oct 23rd MemberVenue guidance ~ downgrades Jean Laherrère update from Tier-1 to Invalidated status; updates my own Hutter Peak Scenario-2500; & updates the Invalidated Robt Hirsch outlook

Consensus based on 16-model Tier-1 avg:

          Peak Oil:  97 Mbd in 2024

          Post-peak Decline Rate to 2050:  0.8%/yr avg

          The year 50% of URR/EUR has been extracted:  2036

          The year flow breaches below today's 88 Mbd:  2041

          The year flow is 1/2 of today's 88 Mbd:  2087

          The year we virtually run out of oil:  2285  (less than 8 Mbd & mostly BTL)

          Global URR/EUR:  4,207 Gb  (1,256 Gb consumed to 2010/12/31 excl 4 Gb BTL)

          Today's Global Depletion:  31% of URR  (Net Depletion Rate:  1.1%/yr)

click chart for Tier-2 & many more graphs, tables & discussion...

Regular Conventional Oil Scenarios: ~ Aug 23rd delayed FreeVenue public release of May 23rd guidance @ the MemberVenue:  There have been only 4 modellers worldwide who have published long term production profiles for Regular Conventional Oil ... the light sweet crude:  Albert Bartlett (USA), Colin Campbell (Ireland), M King Hubbert (USA) & TRENDLines' own Freddy Hutter (Yukon Canada).

Jean Laherrère & Colin Campbell have been the sector's most stalwart peak oil study practitioners.  Both have openly shared their annual analysis with fellow modellers for two decades.  This week, we coaxed Campbell to come out of retirement with an update for a second time.  Campbell's 2011 Depletion Model extends RCO's dramatic 2.6%/yr post-peak production decline rate thru to 2030.  It increases RCO's URR by 83-Gb to 2,046-Gb ... a career high estimate.

Conversely, the Hutter Peak Scenario-2500 (the only other active model) has reduced last year's URR by 68-Gb to 2,062-Gb.  While Campbell forecasts the annual flow rate deteriorates to 38-mbd (up 3) by 2030, Hutter takes the position 59-mbd is more probable.  On the longer term, whereas Campbell predicts the annual Decline rate softens after 2030, Hutter sees major resource constraint after 2039.

The PS-2500 model has determined the steep RCO decline (2006-2009) was not the result of rapid depletion but rather a mirage created by shifts to Surplus Capacity.  As such, it projects RCO production over the next two decades will decline @ a gentler 0.6%/yr avg.

The future path of All Liquids is directly related to these opposing views of RCO's demise.  One trajectory cements the McPeakster position that Peak Oil is upon us.  The other supports the optimism that production keeps rising 'til Peak Demand in 2033 determines terminal decline...

click chart for more graphs & discussion...

Stale-dated:  Pierre-René Bauquis 2008, EIA-Sweetnam 2008, EU WETO/POLES 2007, IHS 2007, Kuwait Energy-Leonard 2007, Robelius 2007, Wood Mackenzie 2007, EIA-Caruso 2005  & Lynch 1996

Poor reconciliation with URR - Low projected Peak and/or overly aggressive post-peak decline rate results in a future "dogleg"  to exhaust remaining resource:  Koppelaar 2009 (2030) & Robelius 2007 (2050)

Overly optimistic medium term targets - 2014 is only three years away.  Megaproject analysis suggests flow rate will be 92-mbd.  Considering practitioner differences wrt Surplus Capacity & Underlying Decline Observed, flow could be 97.9-mbd potentially albeit highly improbable.  Outlooks with deemed unachievable 2014 targets:  Brandt-Farrell 2008 (105.2mbd by 2014), IHS 2007 (104), Lynch 1996 (100), Wood Mackenzie 2007 (99.5) & Robelius 2007 (98.5)

Hail Mary Scenarios - Practitioner has a more conservative outlook that has been featured in Tier-1:  EIA-Caruso 2005, EU WETO/POLES 2007 (reference) & Royal Dutch Shell 2008 (blueprint)

Mathematical Models - Lack robustness to depict inferior non-conventional flows:  Carlson 2007

Inadequate robustness or Conjecture-based:  Royal Dutch Shell 2011, ITPOES 2010, Hirsch 2009, Odell 2009 & Lynch 1996

  Barrel Meter Compared to Recognized Long-Term Crude Oil Price Forecasts ~ updates by Deutsche Bank, EIA, Hutter & IEA

June 15th delayed FreeVenue public release of March 15th guidance @ our MemberVenue ~ Today's chart updates price outlooks by Deutsche Bank, EIA, IEA & Trendlines.

Extraordinary consistency revealed in the updates by Adam Sieminski of Deutsche Bank ($192), EIA AEO 2011 ($200) & IEA WEO 2010 ($204).

Also revised from our November chart is Freddy Hutter's monthly update of the TRENDLines Barrel Meter.  Congress's decision to extend the Bush Tax Cuts along with Obama's $1.5 trillion Deficit Budget have returned the USDollar to its secular decline ... and rising Crude Price with no relief 'til the Presidential Election.  US$ Debasement is today a $19/barrel component ... on its way to $37 absent mitigation efforts.

The USA contract crude price is in breach of $90 ... the Oil/GDP threshold that historically decimates Light Vehicle Sales and is on a journey to cross the $112/barrel mark that will induce a new round of G-20 Recessions.  In the improbable event a major spike presents itself, the model predicts the Demand Destruction Barrier will arrest the price run @ $153/barrel.

Should Congress significantly address their structural deficit crisis, excess surplus capacity (5-6 mbd) will allow Crude Price to slide to $67/barrel by 2014Q1.  The Barrel Meter imports data on projected extraction costs, spare production capacity & business cycles from our Peak Scenario 2500 depletion model.  A similar analysis for gasoline price is featured via our Gas Pump presentation.

click chart for more price discussions & graphs

May 6th delayed FreeVenue public release of Dec 28 2010 guidance @ our MemberVenue ~ With deep respect to the Hansen & Kharecha (NASA) thesis above, analysis by Trendlines Research projects All Liquids shall have a Demand-inspired peak plateau of 89-mbd (2016-2039).  The resultant peak for fossil fuels emissions should occur in 2025.  Atmospheric co2 concentration will have risen to 411ppm.  The NASA work assumes a 96-mbd peak in 2016 - but is based on a 2003 study by EIA/Wood.

Our outlook further assumes peaks for coal in 2025 & natural gas in 2035.  Note that while atmospheric co2 concentration levels have tracked upwards with emissions, the decay pulse would indicate residual co2 will not follow the post peak downward path as quickly.  Most co2 remains for a hundred years and traces linger for almost a millennium.  By Year 2100, co2 will have declined to only 342ppm ... taking us back to 1975 concentrations.  It is believed the long-term effect of this anthropogenic influence is pushing back the next glacial event from 7000 AD to the next harmonic in 40000 AD.

The infamous Al Gore graph spike (the stepladder one) is pure fantasy.  Its absurd 800ppm peak was based on an upward spike in co2 associated with the 1998 El Niño.  This episode is viewable via the co2 emission growth rate in the chart below.  The 2001 IPCC Report, while well intentioned, applied an extrapolated exponential increase in co2 and temp's based on that anomaly.  Observations over the subsequent 10 years have shown that while the co2 emission rate is indeed increasing, it is not at the alarming rate suggested by some scientists and social engineers of the IPCC 2001 era.

A further development has been the realization that the GDP/Energy Demand scenarios within IPCC 2001 were overly optimistic in the sense that they assumed that such growth accompanying increases in population and rising disposable incomes in the developing world (mostly China & India), cannot be fueled by fossil fuels.  There isn't enuf oil, coal or nat'l gas left in the ground to feed the magnificent projected Demand.  The target GDP growth may well occur, but will be enabled by efficiencies, conservation and increases in nuclear generated power.

click chart to visit more charts & discussion @ our Climate Change venue...

May 6th delayed FreeVenue public release of Dec 28 2010 guidance @ our MemberVenue ~ Our analysis shows atmospheric co2 concentrations and the related growth rate are both rising (see coral & yellow lines).  Since the 60's, annual increases have risen from less than 1ppm to 3ppm/yr.  If there is good news, it is that concentrations of the 16 Greenhouse Gases as tracked by the NASA GHG Index are growing more slowly (1.2% annually rather than over 2%/yr back in the early 80's.  This is thanx to headway in the methane and CFC fronts.

The infamous Al Gore graph spike (the stepladder one) is pure fantasy.  Its absurd 800ppm peak was based on an upward spike in co2 associated with the 1998 El Niño.  It can be identified on the Mauna Loa chart above.  The 2001 IPCC Report, while well intentioned, applied an extrapolated exponential increase in co2 and temp's based on that anomaly (see coral Mauna Loa line in chart).  Observations over the subsequent 10 years have shown that while the co2 emission rate is indeed increasing, it is not at the alarming rate suggested by scientists and social engineers of the IPCC 2001 era.

Atmospheric co2 concentrations are 391ppm today, should peak @ 411ppm in 2025 and decline to 442 by Year 2100.  This projection is in sharp contrast to the 2100 targets shown by the global trend indicating 715ppm & Mauna Loa's present trending to 675ppm.  The Trendlines targets are founded on fossil fuel depletion forecasts including our own Peak Scenario-2500 study for All Liquids.

click chart to visit more charts & discussion @ our Climate Change venue...

1996		2007	2010
1,650	Original pre-1996 Discoveries	1,650	1,650
0	post-1995 backdates	417	417
0	post-1995 net discoveries	101	274
150	future Conventional allowance	126	64
000	future Non-Conv allowance	368	29
1,800Gb		2,662Gb	2,434Gb

Oops ... Discoveries & Reserve Growth not going as planned

May 5th delayed FreeVenue public release of Dec 27 2010 guidance @ our MemberVenue ~ As we predicted two years ago, URR/EUR is headed for 7-Tb ... not the 2.434-Tb projected by Colin Campbell of ASPO.  Our 2007 chart illustrated ASPO stealthily hid record levels of Discoveries & Reserve Growth by clever backdating.  Perhaps justified in that methodology, McPeaksters are stymied today in being unable to defend their "well running dry" rhetoric.  The updated chart reveals BP's increases in URR for 2007, 2008 & 2009 while increasing their own URR to 2,705-Gb.  In comparison, our 22-model URR estimates study averages 3,991-Gb & our 20-model Tier-1 Depletion Scenarios project infers All Liquids URR is 3,832-Gb.

The McPeakster thesis is completely undermined with the graph showing the growth trend has resumed its post 1995 pace.  It is not dwindling to nothingness as shown in ASPO's 2007 depiction.  The table shows by 2007 Campbell had raised his URR estimate to 2,662-Gb from his 1996 figure of 1,800-Gb ... then proceeded to slash it to 2.434 over the next three years.  This means he expects only 93-Gb of future discoveries of Regular Conventional (64-Gb) & Non-Conventional (29-Gb) resource over the next century.  In 1997 he expected Discoveries & Reserve Growth to peter out by 2040.  His 2010 figures infer a winding down of exploration by 2025.

This is unrealistic by any measure.  Colin Campbell represents a camp of fear mongers that would have the public believe the globe is running out of oil.  It is a fraud and deception facilitated by groups like theOilDrum, PeakOildotcom & irresponsible pundits like Jeff Rubin.

Altho we concur with the "backdating" methodology as such, i cannot condone ASPO's manipulation of the data in a manner to mislead or cause alarmism.  Colin Campbell published his first Historical Discoveries graph in 1996.  It was based on his estimated URR of 1800 billion barrels (Gb) and was comprised of 1650-Gb of Discovered crude & a 150-Gb allowance for probable Future Discoveries.  His 2007 version (at left) is misleading in the sense that its backdating methodology gives the perception of "a well running dry".

The oil sector operates in a framework founded on the understanding the Proved Reserves / Annual Production ratio will be kept at 40 (years).  This has been the practice for three decades.  Once attained, the ratio is kept in status quo merely by adding just over annual consumption each year.  This is conventional supply chain management.  The McPeakster hypothesis that oil peaks 60 years after the discovery peak in groundless and not without merit.  In 1989, they told everyone the peak came 30 years after.  The fraternity is not credible 'cuz they've been adding a year (to their theory) ever since...

click chart for full discussion & URR venue...

Select Saudi Arabia Crude Supply Targets:  McPeaksters = $29/barrel

April 19th delayed FreeVenue public release of Dec 26 2010 guidance @ our MemberVenue ~ It's time to update the Kingdom's recognized Supply Targets.  The efforts by Sadad al Husseini and theOilDrum's Stuart Staniford & Ace (Joker) have all been stymied to some degree by OPEC mandated quota restrictions.  This is exactly why it was decided back in February 2009 to depict my Peak Scenario-2500's data for Maximum Sustainable Capacity ... not Supply.

The PS-2500 continues to project 2009 as Peak Year for MSC.  The Kingdom's 2.5% Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO) makes it almost impossible for any future announced megaprojects to have the magnitude necessary to breach last year's 12.0-mbd high.  Based on yesterday's Linearization update, our estimate of KSA URR has been trimmed to 192-Gb (from 212).

The Husseini Outlook takes a similar view with its production high of only 11-mbd.  The Ace (joker?) over @ TOD forecasts Supply going south after 2011.  Meanwhile, the infamous high-case worst-cast scenarios by theOilDrum's Stuart Staniford continue to be emblematic of the agenda-driven rhetoric, fabrication of data, misinformation and mass hysteria at that place.  Since 2002, McPeakster websites & pundits have been the best thing to ever come along for oil sector shareholders & NOCs.  Daily contributions by the McDoomers within their fraternity provide impetus for the $29/barrel fear premium (above fundamentals) in today's crude price...

Saudi Arabia Supply Outlook ... an update

April 19th delayed FreeVenue public release of Dec 26 2010 guidance @ our MemberVenue ~ It's been almost two years since Saudi Arabia has announced any guidance on new megaprojects or downside surprises to idle capacity, so we thought instead a progress report would be timely.

First thing we noticed was that the OPEC mandated quota restrictions have kept Supply below target for the third consecutive year.  Our position that 2009 will be Peak Year for Maximum Sustainable Capacity (12.0-mbd) still stands.

Yesterday's URR Linearization update re-confirms the Kingdom appears to be inflating their total resource base.  Last time, we revealed their claim of 900-Gb was more like 212-Gb.  Our new analysis infers 192-Gb.

All the announced megaprojects are still underway.  Due to the global recession, final commissioning of Manifa may be stretched out two more years to 2015.  At this time the preservation of Surplus Capacity reconciled with new construction would indicate the Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO) is no greater than the 2.5% calculated in 2009.

Because global production at the end of 2011 should be very near today's 87-mbd pace, there appears to be little prospect for any significant increased flow from the present 8.2-mbd Supply tally.

click a chart to visit our Saudi Arabia site...

URR/EUR Highlights

Oil Initially in Place (OIIP):  19-Tb.

URR avg:  3,991-Gb (doubled since 1995)

Remaining Resource:  2,731-Gb (doubled since Y2k)

Inferred Depletion:  32%

Remaining Resource/Annual Production Ratio:  87  (record low:  44 in 1995)

Proved Reserves:  1,268-Gb  (doubled since 1978) & growing by 38-Gb/yr

Past Consumption:  1,260-Gb  (to 2010/12/31)

April 18th delayed FreeVenue public release of Dec 25 2010 guidance @ our MemberVenue ~ Today's compilation update introduces a URR study by Adam Brandt & Alexander Farrell of the USA.  It updates figures from BP, Campbell, EIA, Husseini, IEA, Koppelaar, Laherrère, OGJ, Total, World Oil & my own Hutter Peak Scenario-2500.

URR Growth Rate

Chart#2 compares the growth rate of the 22-model Avg with OGJ & BP.  It is seen the recent high-price regime fuelled favourable economics of previously thought fringe contingent resources.  Discovery, development and technology advancements (especially of non-conventionals) fuelled a growth pace of 136-Gb/yr (4.9%) after 1996.  This far surpasses URR's growth of 30-Gb/yr (2.3%) from 1957-1995.

Unsustainable crude prices ($131/barrel high in July 2008) drove discoveries, exploration, and conversion of sub-commercial (contingent) resources over to the economic side of the ledger.  But, sub $90 pricing has been a real dampener of that headiness.  Viewed via the 3-yr rolling average of the 22-models, additions to URR peaked @ 290-Gb in 2008, the growth rate slipping to 165-Gb in 2010.

The chart shows annual augments to URR have exceeded Annual Consumption (32-Gb in 2010) since 1997.  Proven reserves grew by 38-Gb/yr last decade and total 1,268-Gb today.  This explains the hiatus from heavy exploration over the last two decades.  The sector's supply chain is founded on a Proved Reserve / Annual Production ratio of 40 (years).  Having attained that threshold in the early 80's, it has been necessary to only add just over annual consumption to hold this ratio steady.

click a chart for full discussion, tables & related graphs @ our URR site...

April 16th delayed FreeVenue public release of Dec 24 2010 guidance @ our MemberVenue ~ Linearization analysis is a guiding counterweight to our geology/technology based Estimates of Ultimate Recoverable Resource (URR/EUR).  When compared, All Liquids succumbs to a 2,077-Gb differential, mostly attributed to Bitumen, GTL, CTL & Kerogen not yet reflecting their potential flows.  OTOH, this shortfall is somewhat mitigated by the tainted BTL premium influence.  Biofuels-to-liquids are not included in our URR tally, but are indeed reflected in All Liquids production data.

Based on these linearizations, the world won't run out of light sweet crude (RCO) until Year 2067 and there's enuf of the other stuff to take us to Year 2202.

All Liquids represents 11 major streams: Regular Conventional Crude, NGL & Refinery Gain; and the non-conventionals: GTL (gas-to-liquid), Deep Sea, Arctic, Bitumen, X-Heavy, CTL (coal-to-liquid), Kerogen & BTL (biofuels-to-liquid)

Historic Tracking of ASPO-IE Colin Campbell Depletion Model (1989-2010)

April 11th delayed FreeVenue public release of Dec 21 2010 guidance @ our MemberVenue ~ Today's update adds Colin Campbell's 2010 Outlook.  Authored in July, it re-confirms his position that All Liquids peaked @ 85-mbd in 2008 and is founded on a 2,434-Gb URR.  Our chart tracks all the production profile revisions over his career.  Its forecasts of Peak Year have ranged from 1989 to 2012.  In fact, December marks the 21st anniversary of Campbell's initial All Liquids declaration that oil had Peaked.  To be accurate ... a sub-peak.  In December 1989, he declared that the All Liquids production had reached its physical limits @ 66-mbd and would never again attain the 67-mbd Peak of 1979.

Campbell's estimates for Peak Rate spans from that virgin call of a 66-mbd sub-peak in 1989 to his 2008 forecast of a 97-mbd peak in 2010.  His underlying All Liquids URR estimates range from 1575-Gb (1989) to 2900-Gb (2002).

Our last last two chart revisions have excluded Campbell's 1991, 1996, 1997 & 1998 projections as we have determined those studies forecast Regular Conventional Oil ... not All Liquids.  His current (2010) forecast for RCO can be compared to the only three other such projections for light sweet crude at our Scenarios venue.

The highlighted years of distinction are: 2008 (highest peak 97mbd), 2002 (2900-Gb URR high), 2010 (current update), 2004 (Colin Campbell's dark days call:  80mbd peak coming in 2006) & 1989 (Campbell's initial 66-mbd scenario which declared that All Liquids would never breach the 1979 record).

Because the Depletion Model newsletter graphic ends in 2050, it was not apparent that five of his early All Liquids projections failed to exhaust Campbell's designated URR.  The 200-yr outlook resolution view of our chart exposes the methodology errors of the Depletion Model in 1999, Y2k, 2002, 2003 & 2004 for which we have corrected via compensating plateaus or "doglegs".  In short, these particular production profiles employed peaks that were too low and/or decline rates that were too harsh.

click chart for full discussion @ our History of Peak Oil site...

 

 

 

 

theOilDrum Peak

With their misinformation agenda revealed, hits are down over 50% at theOilDrum this year!

A hijack of the site by the lunatic fringe is virtually complete...

common sense prevails

Pundits at theOilDrum, PeakOil.com, Jeff Rubin & forecaster extraordinaire Matt Simmons were the main originators/disseminators of the disruptive 2007/2008 rumours that both the giant Ghawar well & general Saudi Arabia production were in Terminal Decline.

Feb 2007 ~ This graph is the new battle flag of theOilDrum forum.  Yup, all the marbles on one call.  Remember them?  They are the pundit alarmists (Mainstream Media calls them wacko's) that in October 2004 published that the USA was entering an economic Recession.  Oops.  Well, they're back...

TOD's February 2007 prediction:

The green line shows that Saudi Arabia crude supply of 8.7-mbd of January 2007 is headed to 6.5-mbd by Autumn 2011  ... or as low as 4-mbd!

They published it the exact same day that Colin Campbell published a graph showing Saudi Arabia won't decline until 2025 & he changed the ASPO Peak Oil Date to 2011 ...

So, who has got it very wrong?  TOD or ASPO?  Let's see if TOD can do better than Matt Simmons, eh!

Note - Saudi Arabia's supply output target for Autumn 2011 is 10.5-mbd ... right off the top of his graph!

Mar 13 2009 Update:  To the chagrin of TheOilDrum McPeaksters, KSA extraction rose from 8.6 to 9.5-mbd by June 2008, at which time Saudi Aramco was forced to submit to OPEC quota restrictions.  Even after these production cuts, KSA is still far above the 7.2-mbd predicted for March 2009 by TOD's Stuart Staniford.  More on KSA

June 19, 2011 Update:  It just gets worse over at theOilDrum forecast dept.  Was crude flow 4.9-mbd on April 1 2011?  Or was crude 6.6-mbd?  No ... Saudi Arabia regular conventional crude oil was 9.2-mbd !

Matt Simmons, forecaster extraordinaire!

PEAK TOD-USA & TOD-Europe ... theOilDrum Hijacked by McDoomers !!

TheOilDrum's counter says it all:  TOD has Peaked.  Several weeks ago, i warned the new doomster Moderator (Leanan) that the forum was collapsing in remarkably similar fashion to YahooEnergyResources, a discussion Group hijacked by the McDoomers back in 2004.

Feb 2007 ~ Peak Oil Theory has been replaced as focus at theOilDrum by 100's of ad nauseum daily posts on DieOFF, the coming USA Depression, pending collapse of the world's currencies & hate posts against their President, Congress, the Federal Reserve, all agencies' statistics, the IMF, the UN & anybody that doesn't agree that Oil peaked in 2005. I predicted in January that the conversation was about to deteriorate to discussing human poop for fertilizer use by their nihilist posters that moved to the mountains and are awaiting the anti-christ and the Global Warming induced Great Flood. Well, last week "humanure" was the topic of the day by the lunatic fringe that has hijacked that once excellent forum. It's a cult that gleefully awaits the the collapse of the USA with a desire to turn the evil Empire into an agrarian society in Old Order Amish/Mennonites fashion with no electricity, planes or cars. After almost 2 years, i'm oudda there ~ TOD has PEAKED...

 Pew Centre on Climate Change, 2004

Jan 16 2007 ~ In Dec 2003, Samsam Bakhtiari of Iran proposed via his WOCAP-2 Model that Peak Oil would be upon us in 2006 with a Peak Rate of 81-mbd.  We see  in this graph that he miscalculated by 4-mbd (compared to blue line actual).  But now he is telling supporters that his projection excluded some oils (proc gains).  If that was his intent, his pre-forecast baseline (prior to 2004) should match the RED line.  If All Liquids was indeed his intent, his Black line should mirror the yellow ASPO line and the green 2003 IEA line.  U be the Judge...

OTOH, Mr Bakhtiari has the sole model that suggests a pre-2010 Peak.  Can he hit it out of the park for redemption?  Stay tuned ...

 spe classifications

These are our most recent free charts ... please click a graph or the specialty links below for more charts & discussion

Top   -   Peak Oil Home • Peak Oil Since 1956 • URR/EUR • World Production Records • Scenarios • Freddy Hutter's Peak Scenario-2500 • Barrel Meter • Gas Pump • Saudi Arabia Outlook • NPC submission

Top

FreeVenue Home • Peak Oil • Economics • Climate Change • Elections