Backgrounder

In 1972, the Club of Rome attempted to shock stakeholders and policy makers with its Limits to Growth study forecast of All Liquids Peak Oil:  117-mbd in 1995.  Their attempt at awareness that natural resources are finite and in jeopardy with a growing global population was underscored in 1974 with M K Hubbert's similar prediction:  111-mbd in 1995 (excl NGL, deep sea, polar, Orinoco & tar sands).

Because OPEC manipulation invalidated both these projections, Colin Campbell attempted to update the long term prospects for All Liquids.  The Irish geologist stunned many when in 1989 he declared that All Liquids flow (65.5mbd) would never again re-attain its 1979 pre-crisis Peak of 67-mbd (see all 3 charted).  Well, he was very wrong (86mbd today!).  This episode made it quite clear that the uncertainty & price volatility caused by such pessimistic reports (even by well-intentioned professionals) required addressing by the energy sector.

In that regard, we saw OECD's IEA, USA's EIA, OPEC and major IOCs step forward with their own annual & bi-annual long term projections in an attempt to set the record straight and stabilize the marketplace.  It didn't happen.

As the ranks of McPeaksters were swelled by a growing element from the lunatic fringe, their well-intentioned message was hijacked and discourse deteriorated to the realm of economic and social collapse as the world runs out of oil.  As the rhetoric escalated, we thought it would be constructive to provide a comparative platform for these opposing views of the future.

Trendlines Research has been analysing the world's very best All Liquids long term production profiles (and the not-so-good ones) since 2003.  Our database includes six decades of forecast studies.  A year later we commenced to share these results at our website.

Back in 2005, the 7-model Average indicated a 94 Mbd PEAK in 2020.  Our not-so-hidden agenda has been to provide a venue where collaboration and comparison encourages a merging of the pessimistic/optimistic camps.  After screening hundreds of scenario proposals, we are humbled with this project's contribution to the narrowing of the spread by an incredible 2.3 Mbd/yr:  reduced from 41 Mbd (Campbell 85 & CERA 126) in 2005 to today's 27 Mbd (Laherrère 86 & CERA 113) spread.  Interested in who had the best forecast a dozen years ago?  Scroll to our Top-16 Vintage Predictions Scoreboard.

The initial "original six" Depletion Scenarios chart appeared in 2004.  A blended average of its expanded 13 Outlooks was added two years later and this neutral unique production profile has become the première indicator of future oil depletion.  After reaching a membership of two dozen in 2008, TRENDLines decided that to maintain the integrity of the data it provides for international petroleum studies, only Tier-1 Scenarios would be added in the future whilst inferior and stale-dated Outlooks would be purged.    The unique depiction has become the hallmark indicator for future oil depletion with worldwide use among global educational institutions, Gov't agencies, stakeholders and policymakers in over 100 nations.

Peak Oil:  97-mbd in 2024

Jan 23 2012 delayed FreeVenue public release of Oct 23rd MemberVenue guidance ~ downgrades Jean Laherrère update from Tier-1 to Invalidated status; updates my own Hutter Peak Scenario-2500; & updates the Invalidated Robt Hirsch outlook

Global production has increased dramatically from the Recession low of 83.1 Mbd (Jan/2009), setting yet another monthly record (89.1 Mbd) in Sept-2011.  The 16-model average infers the oil sector is on pace to shatter last year's annual record while monthly production is poised to finally break the 90 Mbd threshold in Jan-2013, the 95 milepost in 2019 & the secular rise of crude price will lead to Peak Demand of 97 Mbd in 2024.  International inventories have dipped below the 5-yr avg and firmed prices, but improving fundamentals should usher in $62/barrel oil by 2013Q3.  5% of global capacity is presently idle eagerly awaiting record Demand.

It is little known the pause in global production seen in 2009 was actually the 11th annual decline since 1975.  The PS-2500 model incorporates similar disruptions during potential cyclical business cycle recessions or soft landings in 2017, 2026, 2034 & 2043.

The World Production Records venue has higher resolution charts depicting current extraction at the global level as well as by the Top 7 nations.  Historical analysis of crude & gasoline price components & future target prices (out to 2035) can be viewed via the Gas Pump & Barrel Meter charts.

Today's Model Reviews:

TRENDLiners will recognize French geologist Jean Laherrère as being the 3-peat winner of our "world's best vintage forecaster" title.  It is awarded for the most accurate pre-2001 prediction for the current year - similar to the Nobel Prize ... but w/o the money!  So it is awkward for me to announce today that Jean has slipped from Tier-1 status to Invalidated.  His 2010 Outlook forecast a 2011/2012 Peak Plateau of 87 Mbd.  This month's update amends the plateau to 2014-2016 but failed to revise the Peak Rate.  Therein lies the problem:  2011 is setting a new world record of 88 Mbd.  History trampled our star before the ink was dry!  And I await his new Outlook to reflect this surprising surge in production.

A favourite contribution to this 16-model Depletion study is of course my own Peak Scenario-2500.  The only depletion model that publishes updates monthly, its current revision reflects four factors:  (a) target for Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO) by 2050 increases to 4.4% (from 4.3%);  (b) the projected annual New Capacity trend to Year 2100 increased to 4.2 Mbd (from 3.6 Mbd);  & (d)  7 Gb decrease in URR/EUR.

In its early life, the PS-2500 model revealed the onset of terminal decline in a petroleum province is usually brought on by either (a) constraints in securing sufficient proved reserves at will on an annual basis, or (b) due to the magnitude of rising annual Underlying Decline Observed inevitably surpassing the annual New Capacity installations.  Because it appears the potential capacity peak is being truncated by a waning growth rate in consumption, PS-2500 is currently monitoring two scenarios:  Geologic PEAK & PEAK Demand.

The Geologic PEAK scenario extrapolates the 1 Mbd/yr production pace in play since 1970.  The other reflects a sea change occurring in July 2010 when my newly implemented Peak Demand module began to detect a waning growth rate in long-term Demand.  The module's feedback serves to explain the inability of Consumption to mop up the growing global surplus capacity in the system (6-mbd) after the G-20 Great Recession.

Building on the success of my Gas Pump model's USA Light Vehicle Sales Collapse Threshold in predicting (12 months ahead) the 2011Q1 truncation of the auto sector rebound upon gasoline surpassing $3.26/gal ($91/barrel crude), the PS-2500 suggests there is a similar petroleum/GDP ratio that induces Peak Demand.

Analysis reveals that as Crude Price rose in the recent past, Consumption has twice (2008 & 2011) hit a line-in-the-sand it could not breach 'til Price receded.  Coined as the Peak Demand Barrier, it is presently $99/barrel for the USA contract crude price.  This invisible line increases over time and the long-term outlook within the Barrel Meter projects the Peak Demand Barrier will next be (permanently) surpassed in 2029 ... upon Crude Price breaching $210/barrel.  PS-2500 currently predicts Consumption will never again rise above 100 Mbd after this episode.  In order to avoid excessive international Inventory build, production will peak virtually simultaneously and post-peak decline will average o.5%/yr over the following two decades.

Conversely, when the PEAK Demand module is deactivated, PS-2500 projects there is sufficient capital, Proved Reserves & a demonstrated build rate for global production to attain a Geological Peak of 106 Mbd in 2030 (114 Capacity).

For obvious reasons, the PDB is quite similar to the USA LVSCT.  The Gas Pump, Barrel Meter & Peak Scenario-2500 models present a coordinated warning to policymakers, stakeholders & legislators to aim their strategies for completion of the transition away from gasoline/diesel transportation fuels at Year 2029 - the year it appears traditional fossil fuel vehicle sales and manufacturing face permanent downturn.

The model gauges the pace of Underlying Decline Rate Observed is 3.4% in 2011 and destined to rise to 4.4% by 2050.  Its cyclical nature and projected performance can be viewed via a 1970-2050 (UDRO) chart.  The model estimates 77 Mbd of the 120 Mbd of All Liquids Capacity added since 1970 addressed Underlying Decline Observed; and a further 94 Mbd is required to attain the 103 Mbd capacity target for 2035 in the PEAK Demand scenario:  12 to increase present capacity and 82 Mbd will address future UDO.

Visit the PS-2500 venue for lots more details and charts on non-conventional dynamics, Underlying Decline Observed & the inherent flaws (and myths) associated with the McPeakster fraternity.

Robert Hirsch updated his Outlook this month, but it remains a very simple conjecture-based effort much inferior most studies.  The 2011 version revises last year's 87-Mbd Peak Plateau centered on 2014 to a seven-year band averaging 85 Mbd centered on 2013.  Even more pessimistic as to the future, its post-peak decline rate has been raised to 6% from an inferred 4% last year.  This reduces his inferred URR to 1,951 Gb (from 2,206 Gb).  As its target has been obviously far surpassed, Hirsch's Outlook retains its Invalidated status.

(October Depletion Scenarios update cont'd above... )

Further to the 16 Tier-1 models, I regularly track 16 Tier-2  outlooks.  For discussion and posterity purposes, 4 Regular Conventional Oil projections & 13 Invalidated Outlooks are presented as well.  But, it is the consensus average of the 16 Tier-1 models that offers up the very best professional guidance, such as:

Future Extraction Rates:

Estimated Ultimate Recoverable Resource (EUR-URR)

The consensus Avg URR/EUR Estimate for the 16 Tier-1 practitioners is 4,207 Gb when one deducts from the nominal average the volume attributable to renewable BTL (biofuels-to-liquid) as calculated by the Hutter Peak Scenario-2500 model.  It estimates a cumulative 594 Gb BTL will have been produced thru to Year 2325.  This net economic resource number compares remarkably well to the 3,991 Gb Avg derived by the 22 estimates within our similar URR Study with its slightly different mix of practitioners, some of whom only track conventional liquids.

TRENDLines calculates Global Past Consumption (to 2010/12/31) to be 1,261 Gb for All Liquids of which 1,101 Gb is attributable to Regular Conventional Oil (light sweet crude) & 4-Gb to BTL.

Exhaustion of the first trillion barrels of All Liquids reserves occurred in 2002.  Via the 16-model avg, the second trillion will have passed by Year 2033; then the third by Year 2071 (excl BTL).  Annual flow will finally breach the 8 Mbd threshold in Year 2285 ... signifying the virtual exhaustion of fossil fuels.  From that juncture, only BTL sourced renewable liquids along with the last vestiges of CTL provide Supply.

Of the Tier-1 model contributors, the lowest URR tally is the 2,560 Gb inferred in the PFC Energy Outlook.  Highest is EIA's 9.0 Tb URR.

Peak Date & Peak Rate

The 2024 97-Mbd PEAK indicated by the 16-model consensus Avg rests atop a backdrop Plateau (defined as within 2 Mbd of Peak Rate) running from 2019 to 2032.  As such, even minor Peak Rate variances of the Avg can result in significant shifts of the PEAK DATE.  Six years ago our first exercise in averaging, using seven models, indicated a 94 Mbd PEAK in 2020.  The multi-model "average" for PEAK DATE in our Depletion Scenarios' updates since 2005 has ranged from 2013 to 2030; and we had reported PEAK RATE "averages" running from 91 to 96-mbd.  Today's chart is the first ever suggesting a target rate of 97 Mbd.

Today's Tier-1 models' Peak Date ranges from 2014 by Chris Skrebowski to Year 2036 by IEA ... a span of 22 years.

Today's Update contains a Peak Rate range from 87 Mbd by Sadad al Husseini to CERA's 113 Mbd ... a difference of 26-mbd.

We are humbled with this project's contribution to the narrowing of the spread by an incredible 2.5 Mbd/yr.  Today's high-to-low spread of 26 Mbd has been diminished from 41 (Campbell 85 & CERA 126) just six years ago.  While the pessimists have only upped their forecasts by a mere o.3 Mbd/yr in that time frame, the optimists have in turn been dropping by 2.2 Mbd/yr.  Trivia alert:  if this unholy methodology continues, by 2023 the camps should merge with both agreeing to a peak rate of "89"!

Depletion

A well, field or province depletes from the first day it is drilled.  The total crude extracted from a field thus far divided by its original volume is its status of Depletion.  Using the 17-model avg, and excluding 4-Gb accrued BTL, the 1,256 Gb of consumed petroleum divided by the 4,207 Gb consensus avg URR reveals global Depletion of 30% (to 2010/12/31) ... the passing of one third of URR is near at hand.

The global Gross Depletion Rate (32 Gb annually extracted liquids as a percentage of global URR) is 0.8%/yr today.  If measured as a percentage of remaining resource (2,881-Gb), the Net Depletion Rate is a higher 1.1%/yr.

The consensus 2024 PEAK occurs at 41% Depletion.  The 50% crossover of the inferred URR avg will occur in 2037.  These results would appear to confirm our position that the classic Hubbert bell curve, itself well designed to forecast max production for Regular Conventional Oil (light sweet crude), is not applicable to projecting the cumulative peak of All Liquids and its seven streams, each with their own unique production profile (see PS-2500 below).

Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO)

The IEA WEO-2008 calculates that the Natural Underlying Decline Rate is 5% in post-peak Regular Conventional Crude fields and as much as 15% in non-conventional post-peak Deep Sea fields, for a weighted avg of 9%.  A Producer's EOR activities can improve extraction results and diminish the loss factor.  After EOR activity, IEA calculates the loss to be 6.7% for Conventional & Deep Sea fields.

I call this net absolute figure, more applicable to our depletion studies, Underlying Decline Observed (UDO).  It is expressed in millions of barrels per day (mbd) per annum.  More commonly, analysis of RCC or All Liquids is conducted in percentage terms per time interval - appropriately the Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO).  To maintain a production plateau, Production Capacity must be incrementally increased each year to match UDO loss.  And, when the New Capacity trend no longer exceeds the UDO trend, Terminal Production Decline will commence.

Since Nov/2007, Peak Scenario-2500 has uniquely provided regular monthly reporting of Global UDO/UDRO status.  Its (charted) long-term analysis found that over the last 40 years, UDRO has averaged 2.7% annually.  This means that of the 120 Mbd of new facilities built since 1970, 77 served to address UDO & only 43 Mbd raised Extraction Capacity from 48 in 1969 to 91 Mbd by year-end 2009.  The UDRO rises & falls with surges coinciding with the American economic Recessions.  Below, the PS-2500 finding is compared to short/medium term practitioner estimates of present/future All Liquids UDRO:

   1.9% - Adam Brandt (2007 - sole peer-reviewed contribution)

   2.0% - IEA (2010-2035 avg)

   2.1% - CERA (2009-2030 avg)

   3.4% - Hutter Peak Scenario-2500 (2011, cyclical & rising to 4.4% by 2050)

   4.1% - Matt Simmons (2009-2030 avg)

   4.2% - Jeff Rubin (2009)

   4.5% - EIA (2009-2030 avg)

   4.5% - OPEC (2008)

   4.7% - Chris Skrebowski (2010)

   5.0% - Total (2009)

   5.0% - Deutsche Bank (5% in 2009, rising to 8% by 2030 ... 6.7% avg)

   5.2% - Schlumberger (2009-2030 avg)

   5.25% - Sadad al Husseini (2009)

   6.0% - PFC (by 2030)

   7.0% - UK Energy Research Centre (2009)

   9.0% - consensus at theOilDrum & PeakOildotcom (2009)

(October Depletion Scenarios update cont'd above... )

Tier-2 & Archived Invalidated Outlooks - Our compilation above has included at times Outlooks which are still valid but have become stale dated.  And some Outlooks have unconventional definitions or suspect due diligence.  We call these Tier-2 candidates.  Then there were situations where model practitioners' releases included two or more Scenarios.  We usually chose the conservative case, leaving the other "optimistic" case in limbo.  We will call those orphans our "Hail Mary" class.  Over the past years, some Outlooks have become invalidated by rising Oil Production.  The first victim was M King Hubbert's 1956 forecast; as within ten years of its release, extraction was already 10-mbd over its forecast pace.

None-the-less, it is felt that all these efforts have merit and were/are significant for their time and as such TrendLines Research is pleased to provide a venue.  Where we adopted a low case Outlook above, the orphaned optimistic cases are grouped with aforementioned dated studies in the Tier 2 & "Hail Mary" Presentation below.  Outlooks ultimately surpassed by Production realities are eventually shifted to the Archive Presentation further below.

Thus, presented below are our 2 depictions of 28 inferior Peak Oil Depletion Projections based on the data of: Kjell Aleklett (Sweden), Ali Samsam Bakhtiari's WOCAP (Iran), Pierre-René Bauquis (France), Brandt-Farrell (USA), Colin Campbell (Ireland), William Carlson (USA), Club of Rome (USA), Duncan-Youngquist (USA), EIA-Guy Caruso (USA), EIA-Glen Sweetnam (USA), Energy Watch Group/Ludwig-Bölkow-Systemtechnik (Germany), EU WETO/Poles (EU), Robert Hirsch (USA), 2 by M King Hubbert (USA), IHS (France), ITPOES (UK), Rembrandt Koppelaar (Netherlands), Ray Leonard of Kuwait Energy, Michael Lynch (USA), Peter Odell (Netherlands), OPEC (Vienna), Fredrik Robelius (Sweden), Royal Dutch Shell (Netherlands), Jeff Rubin (Canada), Nansen Saleri (USA), Matt Simmons (USA) & Wood Mackenzie (Scotland):

Stale-dated:  Pierre-René Bauquis 2008, EIA-Sweetnam 2008, EU WETO/POLES 2007, IHS 2007, Kuwait Energy-Leonard 2007, Robelius 2007, Wood Mackenzie 2007, EIA-Caruso 2005  & Lynch 1996

Poor reconciliation with URR - Low projected Peak and/or overly aggressive post-peak decline rate results in a future "dogleg"  to exhaust remaining resource:  Koppelaar 2009 (2030) & Robelius 2007 (2050)

Overly optimistic medium term targets - 2014 is only three years away.  Megaproject analysis suggests flow rate will be 92-mbd.  Considering practitioner differences wrt Surplus Capacity & Underlying Decline Observed, flow could be 97.9-mbd potentially albeit highly improbable.  Outlooks with deemed unachievable 2014 targets:  Brandt-Farrell 2008 (105.2mbd by 2014), IHS 2007 (104), Lynch 1996 (100), Wood Mackenzie 2007 (99.5) & Robelius 2007 (98.5)

Hail Mary Scenarios - Practitioner has a more conservative outlook that has been featured in Tier-1:  EIA-Caruso 2005, EU WETO/POLES 2007 (reference) & Royal Dutch Shell 2008 (blueprint)

Mathematical Models - Lack robustness to depict inferior non-conventional flows:  Carlson 2007

Inadequate robustness or Conjecture-based:  Royal Dutch Shell 2011, ITPOES 2010, Hirsch 2009, Odell 2009 & Lynch 1996

Invalidated Outlooks Archive ~ Jan 23 2012 delayed FreeVenue public release of Oct 23rd MemberVenue guidance: update of Robt Hirsch outlook; Jean Laherrère 2011 update downgraded to Invalidated status from Tier-1

TRENDLiners will recognize French geologist Jean Laherrère as being the 3-peat winner of our "world's best vintage forecaster" title.  It is awarded for the most accurate pre-2001 prediction for the current year - similar to the Nobel Prize ... but w/o the money!  So it is awkward for me to announce today that Jean has slipped from Tier-1 status to Invalidated.  His 2010 Outlook forecast a 2011/2012 Peak Plateau of 87 Mbd.  This month's update amends the plateau to 2014-2016 but failed to revise the Peak Rate.  Therein lies the problem:  2011 is setting a new world record of 88 Mbd.  History trampled our star before the ink was dry!  And I await his new Outlook to reflect this surprising surge in production.

Robert Hirsch updated his Outlook this month, but it remains a very simple conjecture-based effort much inferior most studies.  The 2011 version revises last year's 87-Mbd Peak Plateau centered on 2014 to a seven-year band averaging 85 Mbd centered on 2013.  Even more pessimistic as to the future, its post-peak decline rate has been raised to 6% from an inferred 4% last year.  This reduces his inferred URR to 1,951 Gb (from 2,206 Gb).  As its target has been obviously far surpassed, Hirsch's Outlook retains its Invalidated status.

Invalidated Outlooks in general forecast low Peak Rates and/or harsh post-peak Decline Rates.  Typically they are constructed on URR/EUR platforms less than the geology-based Worst Case Scenario

Current Production exceeds Outlook Peak Rate:  HK Hubbert 1956 (34mbd), Matt Simmons (84.4), Samsam Bakhtiari (81), EWG-LBST (85), Kjell Aleklett (85) , Jeff Rubin (85), Colin Campbell (66 & 86), Robert Hirsch (86) & Jean Laherrère (87)

Outlook's Peak Date surpassed:  HK Hubbert 1956, HK Hubbert 1974, Colin Campbell 1989, Duncan-Youngquist 1999, Samsam Bakhtiari 2003, Matt Simmons 2007, EWG-LBST 2008, Kjell Aleklett 2009, Jeff Rubin 2009, Colin Campbell 1989 & 2011,

Dec 21 2010 ~ Today's update adds Colin Campbell's 2010 Outlook.  Authored in July, it re-confirms his position that All Liquids peaked @ 85-mbd in 2008 and is founded on a 2,434-Gb URR.  Our chart tracks all the production profile revisions over his career.  Its forecasts of Peak Year have ranged from 1989 to 2012.  In fact, December marks the 21st anniversary of Campbell's initial All Liquids declaration that oil had Peaked.  To be accurate ... a sub-peak.  In December 1989, he declared that the All Liquids production had reached its physical limits @ 66-mbd and would never again attain the 67-mbd Peak of 1979.

Campbell's estimates for Peak Rate spans from that virgin call of a 66-mbd sub-peak in 1989 to his 2008 forecast of a 97-mbd peak in 2010.  His underlying All Liquids URR estimates range from 1575-Gb (1989) to 2900-Gb (2002).

Our last last two chart revisions have excluded Campbell's 1991, 1996, 1997 & 1998 projections as we have determined those studies forecast Regular Conventional Oil ... not All Liquids.  His current (2010) forecast for RCO can be compared to the only three other such projections for light sweet crude at our Scenarios venue.  The highlighted years of distinction are: 2008 (highest peak 97mbd), 2002 (2900-Gb URR high), 2010 (current update), 2004 (Colin Campbell's dark days call:  80mbd peak coming in 2006) & 1989 (Campbell's initial 66-mbd scenario which declared that All Liquids would never breach the 1979 record).

Because the Depletion Model newsletter graphic ends in 2050, it was not apparent that five of his early All Liquids projections failed to exhaust Campbell's designated URR.  The 200-yr outlook resolution view of our chart exposes the methodology errors of the Depletion Model in 1999, Y2k, 2002, 2003 & 2004 for which we have corrected via compensating plateaus or "doglegs".  In short, these particular production profiles employed peaks that were too low and/or decline rates that were too harsh.

Scroll down to see how the latest (2010) Campbell Depletion Model measures up against the only other three studies that have addressed Regular Conventional Oil (light sweet crude) over the years

click chart for full discussion & more on Peak Oil History...

Freddy Hutter's Peak Scenario-2500 compiles each month the long term production profiles of the 7 main component flows that comprise All Liquids.

click chart for the October 2011 update charts & discussion ...

Regular Conventional Oil Scenarios: ~ Aug 23 2011 delayed FreeVenue public release of May 23rd guidance @ the MemberVenue:  There have been only 4 modellers worldwide who have published long term production profiles for Regular Conventional Oil ... the light sweet crude:  Albert Bartlett (USA), Colin Campbell (Ireland), M King Hubbert (USA) & Trendlines' own Freddy Hutter (Yukon Canada).

Hubbert's initial RCO thoughtful graphic bell-curve presentation commenced the general discourse on Peak Oil in 1956.  It's Y2k Peak Date was intuitive but the model was flawed by its lowly 1,250-Gb estimate of URR.  His 1974 update boosted the resource base to 2-Tb, a figure that is still relevant by modern standards, but the second projection and its 1995 111-mbd peak were truncated by OPEC interference the following year.

A much later effort was the 1998 Bartlett model with its forecast of a 73-mbd peak in 2004.  In actual fact, RCO extraction peaked in 2005 (68-mbd), while the midpoint of its URR/EUR was crossed in Dec-2007.  2011 extraction is running @ 63-mbd.

Jean Laherrère & Colin Campbell have been the sector's most stalwart peak oil study practitioners.  Both have openly shared their annual analysis with fellow modellers for two decades.  This week, we coaxed Campbell to come out of retirement with an update for a second time.  Campbell's 2011 Depletion Model extends RCO's dramatic 2.6%/yr post-peak production decline rate thru to 2030.  It increases RCO's URR by 83-Gb to 2,046-Gb ... a career high estimate.

Conversely, the Hutter Peak Scenario-2500 (the only other active model) has reduced last year's URR by 68-Gb to 2,062-Gb.  While Campbell forecasts the annual flow rate deteriorates to 38-mbd (up 3) by 2030, Hutter takes the position 59-mbd is more probable.  On the longer term, whereas Campbell predicts the annual Decline rate softens after 2030, Hutter sees major resource constraint after 2039.

The PS-2500 model has determined the steep RCO decline (2006-2009) was not the result of rapid depletion but rather a mirage created by shifts to Surplus Capacity.  As such, it projects RCO production over the next two decades will decline @ a gentler 0.6%/yr avg.

The future path of All Liquids is directly related to these opposing views of RCO's demise.  One trajectory cements the McPeakster position that Peak Oil is upon us.  The other supports the optimism that production keeps rising 'til Peak Demand in 2033 determines terminal decline...

Using the proper historic narrow definition of Regular Conventional Oil, these production profiles exclude NGL, processing gains & the non-conventionals (Bitumen, X-heavy, Arctic, Deep Sea, Biofuels, GTL, CTL & Kerogen).  Hence, we have excluded the wider "conventional" projections by Guseo, Korpela, Kuwait University, Laherrère  & Walsh.  RCO comprises only 72% of All Liquids production today, and it is clear that NGL & the non-conventionals play an ever increasing role.  The PS-2500 model projects RCO will fall to less than 50% of All Liquids in 2041 ... a significant threshold for posterity.

Footnotes:   

2011/10/23)

Tier-1 Scenarios Chart:

BP 2011 - One of our "original six" and an annual provider of one of the best estimates of national reserves proved reserves for light sweet crude

CERA  (ver 9.1106) - Has probably the second best database (IHS) of world's oil fields.  Consistently the most optimistic Peak Rate forecast since 2004.

Deutsche Bank - Authors Paul Sankey, David Clark & Silvio Micheloto are presently committed to a Peak Demand scenario.

EIA 2011 IEO  (reference case) - EIA's 1995 version sports the Third best overall record on Trendlines long-term prediction Scoreboard.  At 9-Tb, this version boasts the highest URR of all models.

ExxonMobil 2010 - annual updates since 2005

Sadad al Husseini 2007 (rev 10.1109) - n/a

Freddy Hutter's Peak Scenario-2500 - only model that updates monthly;  Energy Analyst for TrendLines Research

IEA  (2010-WEO New Policies Scenario - very comprehensive study

Richard Miller 2009  (in practice scenario) - UKERC has assisted in rebasing this Outlook to include NGL, CTL, GTL, Bitumen & BTL

OPEC 2010  (reference scenario) - n/a

PFC 2009 (ver 10.0309) - n/a

Chris Skrebowski  (ver 11.0819) - Renowned for development of the bottom-up Megaprojects flow analysis.  Until the 2010 version, worst-case methodology had been subject to frequent upward revisions as new facilities announced.

Michael Smith 2010  (ver 10.0830) - Reinstated in Tier-1 after dampening overly optimistic medium term projection

Total  (ver 11.0526) - n/a

Turner, Mason & Company Consulting Engineers  (ver 9.1123) - Our newest member of the Tier-1 family

Peter Wells  (ver 11.0411) - Has probably the best database of world's oil fields (IHS + proprietary)

TIER-2 & "Hail Mary" Scenarios Chart:

Pierre-René Bauquis  (ver 8.0122) - staledated

Brandt-Farrell 2009 - Failed 2014 milepost test suggesting 105-mbd by that date (84 - 96 acceptable), production profile overly optimistic.

William Carlson 2007 (logistic analysis) - Excellent effort, but the Tier-1 Chart is limited to a single mathematical curve model contribution (Laherrère preferred at this time).

EIA/Caruso 2005 - Included in Top 4 most accurate 10-yr forecasts.  Downgraded to Tier-2 only 'cuz it is stale-dated.  Also, this is the Hail Mary version of EIA's multiple efforts.  Reference Scenario Sweetnam hybrid preferred.

EIA/Sweetnam 2009 - staledated due to 2008 base;  its 2090 peak is latest of all models

EU 2007 WETO-POLES  (reference case) - This is the Hail Mary version of WETO's 2 scenarios. & EU WETO-POLES 2007  (carbon constraint case) - n/a

IHS 2007  (ver 7.0109) - Failed 2013 milepost test suggesting 103-mbd by that date (83 - 92 acceptable), production profile overly optimistic.

ITPOES 2010 - UK's Industry Taskforce Peak Oil Energy Security second report abandoned its own science to produce a shameful agenda-driven political document. 

Rembrandt Koppelaar 2009  (rapid conventional depletion/ accelerated nonconventional growth or rd/ag scenario) - Downgraded 'cuz latest version shifts profile to below Worst Case Scenario zone.

Kuwait Energy 2007  (ray leonard ver 7.0917) - Failed 2013 milepost test suggesting 97.5-mbd by that date (83 - 92 acceptable), production profile overly optimistic.  Intentional "dogleg" represents non-conventionals.

Michael Lynch 1996 - 7.3-Tb URR is largest of Tier-2.  4th best on the Vintage Forecast Scoreboard ... downgraded to Tier-2 only 'cuz it is stale-dated.

Peter Odell 2009 - Fails some reconciliation tests.  Appears to be a conjecture-based update of better previous dated models.

Fredric Robelius 2007 - Failed 2013 milepost test suggesting 98.5-mbd Peak prior to that date (83 - 92 acceptable), production profile overly optimistic.  An overly aggressive Decline Rate of 1.8% causes major production profile "dogleg" after 2050.

Royal Dutch Shell 2011  (scramble scenario) - lacks robustness of peers

Nansen Saleri  (ver 8.0304) -  lacks robustness of peers, perhaps conjecture-based

Wood MacKenzie 2007 - Failed 2013 milepost test suggesting 99-mbd by that date (83 - 92 acceptable), production profile overly optimistic.

Invalidated Scenarios Archive Chart:

Kjell Aleklett 2009 (ver 9.1109) - Erred by declaring 2008 was Peak Year

Samsam Bakhtiari 2003 WOCAP - Erred by a 2006 Peak of 81-mbd.  Also, overly aggressive Decline Rate of 2.7% causes major production profile "dogleg" after 2020.  The most error-riddled effort, Bakhtiari mistakenly built the model on ASPO's 1800-Gb Regular Conventional URR platform instead of Campbell's 2900-Gb All Liquids URR.  Also integrity issue:  upon failure, claimed it was not an All Liquids model.

Colin Campbell 1989 - Erred by declaring a 1989 Peak of 66-mbd.  Listed for historical significance purposes only.  To be fair, this original All Liquids projection was updated annually from 1999 onwards.

Colin Campbell 2011  (ver 11.0523) - Erred by declaring 2008 as Peak Year.  2011/6/19:  TRENDLines has been fortunate & honoured to draw Colin Campbell from retirement once again. Like me, he's just a magnet to those Excel sheets, eh! Last month we updated Colin's Regular Convention Oil targets. Today there's some fine tuning to the decline profile of his All Liquids Depletion Model. Campbell has issues with the BTU values within international data reporting and as such remains committed to the 86-mbd of 2008 as being Peak Year. Hmmm...

Club of Rome's 1972 "Limits to Growth" - Representing All Liquids, it has been misrepresented as forecasting "running out of oil".  Presented two years before Hubbert conventional oil release.

In 1972, the Club of Rome commissioned the MIT Globe3 model to design its long term outlook "Limits to Growth".  The petroleum projections within its global energy analysis seem to have inspired MK Hubbert's 1974 major revision.  Built on a 2.15-Tb URR, LTG forecast a 117-mbd All Liquids Peak in 1995.  Quick on its tail, Hubbert's paper focused on Regular Conventional Crude only and projected a 111-mbd Peak, also in 1995, but employing a 2-Tb URR void of NGL & non-conventionals.  Hubbert's previous paper had predicted a 34-mbd Peak.

Media references to LTG often mistakenly quote its pessimist view of "running out oil" before the end of the century.  By depicting its findings in Invalidated Archive, it is seen that its forecast for exhaustion was not 'til 2075 and clearly this reference is out of context.  It is but one more example that the alarmist rhetoric by zealots within the McPeakster, McDoomer & Global Warming fraternities have much to do with the marginalization of those movements by the Mainstream Media and policy makers over the last two decades...

Duncan-Youngquist 1999 - Best overall record on TrendLines Vintage prediction Scoreboard.  Eventually erred with a 2007 Peak of 87-mbd.

EWG/LBST  2008 - Erred by a 2006 Peak of 85 Mbd.  2011/6/19:  Energy Watch Group rejects new EIA data and remains committed to the 85-mbd of 2006 being Peak Year.

Robert Hirsch 2009 - Conjecture based;  His effort is mainly for pundit entertainment purposes.  2011/8/25:  The early 2009 musings by Robert Hirsch proposed All Liquids production had indeed peaked, would never see 87.0 Mbd and at best would maintain a plateau 'til 2011. Committed to the 8% UDRO (Underlying Decline Rate Observed) camp, he forecast a 4% post-peak annual decline rate, implying URR of only 2,206 Gb. The 2011 surge by Saudi Arabia forces a downgrade of the Hirsch outlook from Tier-2 status and adds yet another failed McPeakster projection to the Invalidated presentation.

M K Hubbert 1956 - Erred by a Y2k Peak of 34-mbd.  Note production profile does not incl NGL, Bitumen, X-Heavy, Polar Arctic, Deep Sea, CTL, GTL, Kerogen or BTL.

M K Hubbert 1974 - Erred by a 1995 Peak of 111-mbd.  Note production profile does not incl NGL, Bitumen, X-Heavy, Polar Arctic, Deep Sea, CTL, GTL, Kerogen or BTL.

Jean Laherrère  (linearization ver 11.1023) - TRENDLines Most Accurate Vintage Forecaster in 2008, 2009 & 2010.  Based on his two decade studies of Linearization modeling, Jean's Model is the sole mathematics curve-based Outlook in our Tier-1 presentation, and was one of our original six back in 2004.  2011 Production has exceeded its Peak Rate target already.

Jeff Rubin 2009 - Erred by declaring 2008 was Peak Year;  Production profile fails robustness test by not addressing post 2015 exhaustion.  His effort is mainly for pundit entertainment purposes.

Matt Simmons 2008  (ver 8.0416) - Erred by declaring a 2007 Peak of 84.4-mbd.  Also, an overly aggressive Decline Rate of 7.0% infers a 1575-Gb URR that is 449-Gb less than the most conservative recognized geologist estimate (2024-Gb by EWG/LBST).  His effort is mainly for pundit entertainment purposes.

Tracking of Colin Campbell - ASPO/IE Depletion Model since 1989:

The highlighted years of distinction are: 2008 (highest peak 97mbd), 2002 (2900-Gb URR high), 2009 (current update), 2004 (Colin Campbell's dark days call: 80mbd peak coming in 2006) & 1989 (Campbell's initial 66-mbd scenario).

Since 2004, TrendLines Research has conducted due diligence on the Depletion Model for inclusion in our Peak Oil Depletion Scenarios.  This includes reconciling the model's production profile with its URR.  Because Campbell's Depletion Model newsletter graphic ends in 2050, it was unapparent to viewers that many of the model's early All Liquids projections failed to sufficiently exhaust URR. 

The above post-2050 resolution chart exposes the methodology errors of the Depletion Model in its early days.  In short, Campbell's low and/or early Peaks and/or harsh post-Peak Decline Rates were too aggressive to consume all his attributed URR, leaving production profile "doglegs" in 1999, Y2k, 2001, 2002, 2003 & 2004.  In the dark days of 2004, it seems that Campbell was unduly influenced by zealot members of the McPeakster fraternity:  he corrected his doglegs by slashing All Liquids URR from 2900-Gb to 2400 albeit the URR Estimates 17-model Avg was 2942-Gb at the time.  All Liquids Peak was advanced from 2012 to 2006 & Peak Rate was reduced to 80-mbd from 87-mbd.  Motivations at the time were questionable ... and i did!!

My intervention and vigilant scrutiny led to better quality projections by Campbell in late 2005, 2006, 2007.  Unfortunately, the Campbell 2008 Newsletters saw his stated 2007 production trimmed from 87-mbd in January to a pathetic 81-mbd by December.  As stated in the Tier-2 footnotes, upon reconciling Campbell's data, we found that he justified the low number by reducing NGL flow rates for 2007 & 2008 to a mere 5-mbd from his previous 8-mbd tally.  When the elusive 3-mbd NGL error is added back, his figures are in complete agreement with the 84.4-mbd at EIA.  Previously an eager and forthright responder, it is with dismay that we report that to date, Colin Campbell has refused to address this recent discrepancy brought to his attention via our emails.  (addendum:  In his Nov 9 2009 model update, Kjell Aleklett has conceded that he erred in advising Campbell that an NGL downgrade was in order as he finds EIA has already made the BTU adjustment)

Excluded Practitioners:

These 5 contributors to the Peak Oil debate have done excellent studies that unfortunately are limited to more narrowly defined flows than All Liquids:

   Regular Conventional Crude - Albert Bartlett (USA) ... actually, see his projection in our new RCO Scenarios chart!

   RCC + NGL - Ken Deffeyes (USA), Seppo Korpela (USA), Renato Guseo (Italy), Kuwait University (Nashawi et al) & John Walsh (Canada)

Tier-1 Scenarios Chart Archive w/o text:  "charts only" from 2004 to 2011 available at MemberVenue

     Tier-1 Scenarios Chart Archive "with text" from 2004 to 2011 available at MemberVenue

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