Scenarios Archive Blog

Scenarios Archive w/o text: charts only for 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004

Peak Oil: 94-mbd in 2024

May 31 2010 ~ Below, this month's revision: (a) updates Tier-1 Outlooks by EIA, Jean Laherrère & our own Hutter Peak Scenario 2200.

We're pleased to report 2010 global production is on a pace that exceeds the 85.5-mbd annual record set in 2008. Indeed a new quarterly record was set in 2010Q1. Monthly flow, which had slipped from its 86.7-mbd record of July 2008 record to only 83.2 (Jan-2009) at the depth of the Recession era, is poised for a new record next April. See the Monthly Report for higher resolution charts of current extraction. Historical analysis of Crude & Gasoline Price components & future target prices (out to 2035) can be viewed via our Gas Pump & Barrel Meter charts. A new chart compares our projections with long term Crude Oil Price Forecasts by Deutsche Bank, EIA, IEA, IHS, Jeff Rubin, Matt Simmons & theOilDrum.

Backgrounder

In 1972, the Club of Rome attempted to shock stakeholders and policy makers with its Limits to Growth study forecast of All Liquids Peak Oil: 117-mbd in 1995. Their attempt at awareness that natural resources are finite and in jeopardy with a growing global population was underscored in 1974 with M K Hubbert's similar prediction: 111-mbd in 1995 (excl NGL, deep sea, polar, Orinoco & tar sands).

Because OPEC manipulation invalidated both these projections, Colin Campbell attempted to update the long term prospects for All Liquids. The Irish geologist stunned many when in 1989 he declared that All Liquids flow (65.5mbd) would never again re-attain its 1979 pre-crisis Peak of 67-mbd (see all 3 charted). Well, he was very wrong (86mbd today!). This episode made it quite clear that the uncertainty & price volatility caused by such pessimistic reports (even by well-intentioned professionals) required addressing by the energy sector.

In that regard, we saw OECD's IEA, USA's EIA, OPEC and major IOCs step forward with their own annual & bi-annual long term projections in an attempt to set the record straight and stabilize the marketplace. It didn't happen. As the ranks of McPeaksters were swelled by a growing element from the lunatic fringe, their well-intentioned message was hijacked and discourse deteriorated to the realm of economic and social collapse as the world runs out of oil. As the rhetoric escalated, we thought it would be constructive to provide a comparative platform for these opposing views of the future.

TrendLines Research has been analysing the world's very best All Liquids long term production profiles (and the not-so-good ones) since 2003. Our database includes six decades of forecast studies. A year later we commenced to share these results at our website.

Back in 2006, the 13-model Average indicated a 95-mbd PEAK in 2020. Our not-so-hidden agenda has been to provide a venue where collaboration and comparison encourages a merging of the pessimistic/optimistic camps. After screening hundreds of scenario proposals, we are humbled with this project's contribution to the narrowing of the spread by an incredible 3-mbd/yr: reduced from 48-mbd (Campbell 80 & CERA 128) in 2004 to today's 28-mbd (Husseini 86 & EIA-Sweetnam 114) spread.

Interested in who had the best forecast a dozen years ago? Scroll to our Top-16 Vintage Predictions Scoreboard.

Today's Model Reviews:

EIA updated its long term forecast via the IEO (Intl Energy Outlook) this month. The Year 2035 milepost was trimmed 1-mbd to 111, and had the effect of paring its 2090 target 2-mbd to 114 ... the highest estimate of the tier-1 scenarios.

Jean Laherrère conducted his second revision of 2010 and it is a major overhaul. Chopping URR from 1,100-Gb to 2.9-Tb, it is his most pessimistic forecast ever and predicts an 86-mbd production peak in 2011. This is down from 87 in 2014 (last month) & 88 in 2015 (Oct-2008 version).

Although this sentiment of an early and low Peak varies significantly from the 19-model avg, everyone must take it very seriously: Laherrère holds the TrendLines Research title for best vintage projections for Year 2008, Year 2009 & is on pace for a 3-peat in Year 2010 with this 1997 effort. These multiple record wins have earned him the "best overall forecaster" as well. The Laherrère model was one of six included in our initial presentation chart way back in 2004.

A favourite member of this 19-model Depletion study is of course my Peak Scenario 2200. The only depletion model that posts updates monthly, the current revision reflects two factors: (a) 48-Gb decrease (Kerogen down) of our URR estimate & (b) target for 2050 Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO) lowered to 4.7%.

The model concludes the onset of terminal production decline can be brought on by either (a) constraints in securing sufficient proven reserves, or (b) due to rising Underlying Decline Observed surpassing the trend of annual New Capacity installations. PS-2200 pegs dates on these two events: 2052 & 2031 ... the latter establishing its 2030 Peak (102-mbd).

PS-2200 & Colin Campbell's Depletion Model are the only models with ongoing analysis of narrowly defined Regular Conventional Crude (light sweet oil). The departure in their views (see RCC chart) represents the rift between the optimistic & pessimistic camps. RCC peaked @ 68-mbd in 2005, and has been declining at a rapid 2.6%/yr. Whereas Campbell foresees this rate of decline continuing unimpeded 'til 2030, Hutter's contrary position is twofold based: (a) the apparent rapid decline is actually a masking of reality due to rising surplus capacity; and (b) recent maximum Underlying Decline of 3.1% was Recession inspired and EOR/Reserve development activities will keep RCC flow in virtual plateau (-0.5%/yr) during the next two decades starting this year. Whereas Campbell says RCC will decline to 36-mbd by 2030, Hutter has a target of 55. Whether or not this year's RCC flow deteriorates or moderates makes 2010 the watershed year in foreshadowing All Liquids future path. And thus far, light sweet extraction exceeds 2009 flows!

The Peak Scenario 2200 May Update elaborates on its bold hypothesis that Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO) rises and falls with the American Recessions. It contends UDRO has just demonstrated this phenomenon for a sixth time since 1970. On cue, its most recent loss cycle peaked at 3.1% in 2008, and will trough at 2.5% in 2012, before climbing to 3.5% in a probable 2017 Recession. The model estimates 77-mbd of Capacity was added since 1970 to address Underlying Decline Observed, and a further 58-Gb will be required for that purpose by 2030. The latter figure compares to IEA WEO-2008's estimated 45-Gb to 2030 & CERA's 2009 finding of a 31-mbd requirement over the next 21 years.

The rippled profile results from the harmonics of the underlying 7 unique flow streams. Visit our PS-2200 venue for lots more details and charts on URR linearization, non-conventional dynamics, Underlying Decline and the inherent flaws (and myths) incorporated within McPeakster modeling.

Further to the 19 Tier-1 models, 16 Tier-2 & Hail Mary outlooks are tracked regularly. For discussion and posterity purposes, 4 Regular Conventional Crude projections & 11 Invalidated Outlooks are presented as well. But, it is the Average of the 19 Tier-1 models that reveals the very best guidance, such as:

Future Extraction Rates:

2008: 85.5-mbd
2009: 84.2
2010: 85.6 (pending)
2024: 94 (Peak Year & Peak Rate)
2032: 92 (50% Extraction of URR)
2042: 85 (first year with flow less than today)
2050: 78
2060: 68 (fifty yrs from today)
2075: 55 ( 9.2-billion peak of global population)
2100: 36
2110: 30 (100 yrs from today)
2200: 9 (flows limited to Bitumen/X-Heavy, GTL, CTL & renewable BTL)
2300: 5-mbd (flows limited to GTL, CTL & renewable BTL)

(May Depletion Scenarios update cont'd above... )

Estimated Ultimate Recoverable Resource (EUR-URR)

The Avg URR/EUR Estimate for the Tier-1 practitioners is 3,896-Gb when we deduct from the nominal average the volume attributable to renewable BTL (biofuels-to-liquid) as calculated by the Hutter PS-2200 model. It estimates a cumulative 554-Gb of BTL thru to Year 2300. This net resource number compares rather well to the 3,785-Gb Avg derived from our URR Study with its slightly different mix of practitioners.

TrendLines calculates Global Past Extraction (to 2009/12/31) to be 1229-Gb for All Liquids, of which 1077-Gb is attributable to Regular Conventional Crude (light sweet) & 4-Gb to BTL.

Exhaustion of the first trillion barrels of All Liquids reserves occurred in 2002. Via the 19-model avg, the second trillion will have passed by Year 2033; then the third by Year 2073 (excl BTL). Annual flow will finally breach the 5-mbd threshold in Year 2301 ... signifying the virtual exhaustion of fossil fuels. From that juncture, only BTL sourced renewable liquids and the last vestiges of CTL & GTL provide production.

Of the Tier-1 model contributors, the lowest URR tally is the 2,439-Gb used by Chris Skrebowski. The high is the EIA-Sweetnam hybrid with its 9.0-Tb URR.

Peak Date & Peak Rate

The 2024 94-mbd PEAK indicated by the 19-model Avg rests atop a backdrop Plateau (defined as within 2-mbd of Peak Rate) running from 2018 to 2032. As such, even minor Peak Rate variances of the Avg can result in significant shifts of the PEAK DATE. Our first exercise in averaging the (13) models indicated a 95-mbd PEAK in 2020. Depletion Scenarios' Updates since 2006 have highlighted PEAK DATES ranging from 2013 to 2030; and we have reported PEAK RATES running from 91 to 96-mbd.

Today's Tier-1 model Peak Dates range from 2011 (Sadad Al Husseini & Jean Laherrère) to the 2090 hybrid projection by EIA-Sweetnam.

May's forecasts of Peak Rate range from 86-mbd (Sadad Al Husseini & Jean Laherrère) to EIA-Sweetnam's 114-mbd.

We are humbled with this project's contribution to the narrowing of the spread by an incredible 3-mbd/yr. Today's high-to-low spread of 28-mbd has diminished from 48 just five years ago. Generally, the pessimists have been upward revising their forecasts an average 1-mbd/yr, while the optimists have in turn been dropping by 2-mbd/yr (trivia alert: if this unholy methodology continues, by 2020 the camps should merge with both agreeing to a Peak Rate of "96").

Depletion

A well, field or province depletes from the first day it is drilled. The total crude extracted from a field thus far divided by its original volume is its status of Depletion. Based on the 19-model avg, and excluding 4-Gb accrued BTL, the 1,225-Gb of consumed petroleum divided by the 3,896-Gb avg URR reveals global Depletion of 31% (to 2009/12/31).

The global Gross Depletion Rate (31-Gb annually extracted liquids as a percentage of global URR) is 0.8%/yr today. If measured as a percentage of remaining resource (2,671-Gb), the Net Depletion Rate is a higher 1.1%/yr.

The consensus 2024 PEAK occurs at 43% Depletion. The 50% crossover of the inferred URR avg will occur in 2032.

Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO)

The IEA WEO-2008 calculates that the Natural Underlying Decline Rate is 5% in post-peak Regular Conventional Crude fields and as much as 15% in non-conventional post-peak Deep Sea fields, for a weighted avg of 9%. A Producer's EOR activities can improve extraction results and diminish the loss factor. After EOR activity, IEA calculates the loss to be 6.7% for Conventional & Deep Sea fields.

I call this net absolute figure, more applicable to our depletion studies, Underlying Decline Observed (UDO). It is expressed in millions of barrels per day (mbd) per annum. More commonly, analysis of RCC or All Liquids is conducted in percentage terms per time interval - appropriately the Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO). To maintain a production plateau, Production Capacity must be incrementally increased each year to match UDO loss. And, when the New Capacity trend no longer exceeds the UDO trend, Terminal Production Decline will commence.

Since November 2007, Peak Scenario 2200 has uniquely provided regular monthly reporting of Global UDO/UDRO status. Its long term analysis found that over the last 40 years, UDRO has averaged 2.7% annually. This means that of the 119-mbd of new facilities built since 1970, 78 served to address UDO & only 41-mbd raised Extraction Capacity from 51 in 1969 to 92-mbd today. The UDRO rises and falls in surges coinciding with the American economic recessions. Below, the PS-2200 finding is compared to short/medium term practitioner estimates of present/future All Liquids UDRO:

1.5% - CERA (2009-2030 Avg)

1.9% - Adam Brandt (2007 - sole peer-reviewed contribution)

1.9% - IEA (2008-2030 Avg)

2.8% - Freddy Hutter's Peak Scenario 2200 - 2010 ytd (rising to 4.7% by 2050)

4.1% - Matt Simmons (2009-2030 Avg)

4.2% - EIA (2009-2030 Avg)

4.2% - Jeff Rubin (2009)

4.5% - OPEC (2008)

4.7% - Chris Skrebowski (2010)

5.0% - Deutsche Bank (2009, rising to 8% by 2030)

5.0% - Total (2009)

5.2% - Schlumberger (2009-2030 Avg)

5.25% - Sadad al Husseini (2009)

6.0% - PFC (by 2030)

7.0% - UK Energy Research Centre (2009)

9.0% - consensus at theOilDrum & PeakOildotcom (2009)

CERA's 2009 study has determined that flow from currently in-place Capacity will deteriorate by only 31-mbd in the next 21 years. In its recent WEO-2008, IEA presumes 45-mbd of new Capacity is required to sustain a plateau 'til 2030. My own PS-2200 projects a figure of 58-mbd is more probable.

Post-Peak Decline

The absolute volume of decreased annual production in a post-peak well, field or petroleum provinces is its Decline; often quoted in percentage terms as an annual Decline Rate. The TrendLines 19-model avg declines at 0.7% per annum measured from the 2024 Peak to Year 2050. Alternatively, when calculated from PEAK to the 10-mbd exhaustion threshold in Year 2189, it will average 1.4% annually. It is a very manageable reality when compared to the most aggressive rate mathematically possible (4.9%) as illustrated in the hypothetical Worst Case Scenario.

Among our Tier-1 practitioners, predictions of First Year Production Decline range from Year 2012 (Sadad Al Husseini & Jean Laherrère) to Year 2091 by EIA.

The Avg Decline Rates range from Hutter's 0.6%/yr to 4.2%/yr shared by both EU/WETO & Chris Skrebowski.

Peak Oil: 95-mbd in 2024

April 30 2010 ~ TrendLines Research monitors the major forecasts of peak oil depletion from around the globe. The top 19 (and their average) are plotted on a graph and each month this Tier-1 presentation is posted to the website. The remainder are plotted on a Tier-2 chart. For purists, a third chart plots the only 4 forecasts of the narrow definition of Regular Conventional Crude (light sweet). For posterity purposes, a final chart tracks the noteworthy historic but failed predictions since 1956.

Below, this month's revision: (a) introduces a 19th model: Turner-Mason Engineers; and (b) updates Tier-1 Outlooks by Jean Laherrère, PFC & our own Hutter Peak Scenario 2200.

2010 global production is on a pace that exceeds the 85.4-mbd annual record set in 2008. Monthly flow has been on a steady rebound since bottoming at 83.1-mbd in January 2009 (also the worst month of the USA Recession). The sector is poised for a new quarterly record in 2010Q2 and the monthly record should fall in February 2011. See the Monthly Report for higher resolution charts of current extraction. Historical analysis of Crude & Gasoline Price components & future target prices (out to 2035) can be viewed via our Gas Pump & Barrel Meter charts. A new chart compares our projections with long term Crude Oil Price Forecasts by Deutsche Bank, EIA, IEA, IHS, Jeff Rubin, Matt Simmons & theOilDrum.

Backgrounder

TrendLines Research has been analysing the world's very best All Liquids long term production profiles (and the not-so-good ones) since 2003. Our database includes five decades of forecast studies. A year later we began publishing results to our website.

Back in 2006, the 13-model Avg indicated a 95-mbd PEAK in 2020. Our not-so-hidden agenda has been to provide a venue where collaboration and comparison encourages a merging of the pessimistic/optimistic camps. After screening hundreds of scenario proposals, we are humbled with this project's contribution to the narrowing of the spread by an incredible 3-mbd/yr: reduced from 48-mbd (Campbell 80 & CERA 128) in 2004 to today's 30-mbd (Husseini 86 & EIA-Sweetnam 116) spread.

Interested in who had the best forecast ten years ago? Scroll to our Top-16 Vintage Predictions Scoreboard.

Today's Model Reviews:

We're pleased to introduce a 19th model to our Tier-1 presentation today: Turner, Mason & Company Consulting Engineers of Texas USA did the groundwork for an Energy Intelligence Publishing study of crude oil depletion. Using an assumption of 1.8-Tb of reserves, it forecasts production will increase to 92-mbd by 2020.

Jean Laherrère has updated his 2008 study this month with a forecast 87-mbd production Peak in 2014 (formerly 88 in 2015). Although this prediction of an early Peak varies significantly from the 19-model avg, everyone must take it very seriously:

Laherrère holds the TrendLines Research title for best vintage projections for Year 2008, Year 2009 & is on pace for a 3-peat in Year 2010 with this 1997 effort. These multiple record wins have earned him the "best overall forecaster" as well. The Laherrère model was one of six included in our initial presentation chart way back in 2004.

PFC unveiled it 2010 Outlook last month. Foreseeing UDRO (Underlying Decline Rate Observed) rising to 6% by 2030, its new outlook revises down Peak to 104-mbd in 2024 (from 106 in 2022).

A favourite member of this 19-model Depletion study is of course my Peak Scenario 2200. The only depletion model that posts updates monthly, the current revision reflects two factors: (a) 71-Gb increase (X-Heavy up, Kerogen down) in our URR estimate & (b) target for 2050 Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO) lowered to 4.3% per year.

The model concludes the onset of terminal production decline can be brought on by either (a) constraints in securing sufficient proven reserves, or (b) due to rising Underlying Decline Observed surpassing the trend of annual New Capacity installations. PS-2200 pegs dates on these two events: 2051 & 2031 ... the latter establishing its 2030 Peak (103-mbd).

PS-2200 & Colin Campbell's Depletion Model are the only models with ongoing analysis of narrowly defined Regular Conventional Crude (light sweet oil). The departure in their views (see RCC chart) represents the rift between the optimistic & pessimistic camps. RCC peaked @ 68-mbd in 2005, and has been declining at a rapid 2.6%/yr. Whereas Campbell foresees this rate of decline continuing unimpeded 'til 2030, Hutter's position is that the rapid decline was Recession inspired and EOR/Reserve development activities will keep RCC flow in virtual plateau (-0.6%/yr) during the next two decades starting this year. Whether or not this year's RCC flow deteriorates or moderates makes 2010 the watershed year in foreshadowing All Liquids future path.

The Peak Scenario 2200 April Update elaborates on its bold hypothesis that Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO) rises and falls with the American Recessions. It contends UDRO has just demonstrated this phenomenon for a sixth time since 1970. On cue, its most recent loss cycle peaked at 3.1% in 2008, and will trough at 2.4% in 2012, before climbing to 3.5% in a probable 2017 Recession. The model estimates 78-mbd of Capacity was added since 1970 to address Underlying Decline Observed, and a further 57-Gb will be required for that purpose by 2030. The latter figure compares to IEA WEO-2008's estimated 45-Gb to 2030 & CERA's 2009 finding of a 31-mbd requirement over the next 21 years.

Future Extraction Rates:

2008: 85.4-mbd
2009: 84.2
2010: 85.7 (pending)
2024: 95 (Peak Year & Peak Rate)
2033: 93 (50% Extraction of URR)
2043: 86 (first year with flow less than today)
2050: 80
2060: 71 (fifty yrs from today)
2075: 58 ( 9.2-billion peak of global population)
2100: 37
2110: 31 (100 yrs from today)
2200: 9 (flows limited to Bitumen/X-Heavy, GTL, CTL & renewable BTL)
2300: 4-mbd (flows limited to GTL, CTL & renewable BTL)

(April Depletion Scenarios update cont'd above... )

Estimated Ultimate Recoverable Resource (EUR-URR)

The Avg URR/EUR Estimate for the Tier-1 practitioners is 3,994-Gb when we deduct from the nominal average the volume attributable to renewable BTL (biofuels-to-liquid) as calculated by the Hutter PS-2200 model. It attributes a cumulative 513-Gb of BTL thru to Year 2300. This compares rather well to the 3,785-Gb Avg derived from our URR Study with its slightly different mix of providers.

TrendLines calculates Global Past Extraction (to 2009/12/31) to be 1229-Gb for All Liquids, of which 1077-Gb is attributable to Regular Conventional Crude (light sweet) & 4-Gb to BTL.

Exhaustion of the first trillion barrels of All Liquids reserves occurred in 2002. Via the 19-model avg, the second trillion will have passed by Year 2033; then the third by Year 2071 (excl BTL). Annual flow will finally breach the 5-mbd threshold in Year 2289 ... signifying exhaustion of fossil fuels. From that juncture, only BTL sourced renewable liquids provide production.

Of the Tier-1 model contributors, the lowest URR tally is the 2,439-Gb used by Chris Skrebowski. The high is the EIA-Sweetnam hybrid with its 9.0-Tb URR.

Peak Date & Peak Rate

The 2024 95-mbd PEAK indicated by the 19-model Avg rests atop a backdrop Plateau (defined as within 2-mbd of Peak Rate) running from 2018 to 2032. As such, even minor Peak Rate variances of the Avg can result in significant shifts of the PEAK DATE. Our first exercise in averaging the models (13) indicated a 95-mbd PEAK in 2020. Depletion Scenarios' Updates since 2006 have highlighted PEAK DATES ranging from 2013 to 2030; and we have reported PEAK RATES running from 91 to 96-mbd.

Today's Tier-1 model Peak Dates range from Sadad Al Husseini's 2011 to the 2090 hybrid projection by EIA-Sweetnam.

April's forecasts of Peak Rate range from 86-mbd by Sadad Al Husseini to EIA-Sweetnam's 115.6-mbd.

We are humbled with this project's contribution to the narrowing of the spread by an incredible 3-mbd/yr. Today's high-to-low spread of 30-mbd has diminished from 48 just five years ago. Generally, the pessimists have been upward revising their forecasts an average 1-mbd/yr, while the optimists have in turn been dropping by 2-mbd/yr. (Trivia Alert: this unholy methodology indicates that by 2020 the camps should merge with both agreeing to a Peak Rate of "96")

Depletion

A well, field or province depletes from the first day it is drilled. The total crude extracted from a field thus far divided by its original volume is its status of Depletion. Based on the 19-model avg, and excluding 4-Gb accrued BTL, the 1,225-Gb of consumed petroleum divided by the 3,994-Gb avg URR reveals global Depletion of 31% (to 2009/12/31).

The global Gross Depletion Rate (31-Gb annually extracted liquids as a percentage of global URR) is 0.8%/yr today. If measured as a percentage of remaining resource (2,769-Gb), the Net Depletion Rate is a higher 1.1%/yr.

The consensus 2024 PEAK occurs at 43% Depletion. The 50% crossover of the inferred URR avg will occur in 2033.

Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO)

Since November 2007, Peak Scenario 2200 has uniquely provided regular monthly reporting of Global UDO/UDRO status. Its long term analysis found that over the last 40 years, UDRO has averaged 2.7% annually. This means that of the 119-mbd of new facilities built since 1970, 79 served to address UDO & only 41-mbd raised Extraction Capacity from 51 in 1969 to 92-mbd today. The UDRO rises and falls in surges coinciding with the American economic recessions. Below, the PS-2200 finding is compared to short/medium term practitioner estimates of present/future All Liquids UDRO:

1.5% - CERA (2009-2030 Avg)

1.9% - Adam Brandt (2007 - sole peer-reviewed contribution)

1.9% - IEA (2008-2030 Avg)

2.8% - Freddy Hutter's Peak Scenario 2200 - 2010 ytd (rising to 4.3% by 2050)

4.1% - Matt Simmons (2009-2030 Avg)

4.2% - EIA (2009-2030 Avg)

4.2% - Jeff Rubin (2009)

4.5% - OPEC (2008)

4.7% - Chris Skrebowski (2010)

5.0% - Deutsche Bank (2009, rising to 8% by 2030)

5.0% - Total (2009)

5.2% - Schlumberger (2009-2030 Avg)

5.25% - Sadad al Husseini (2009)

6.0% - PFC (by 2030)

7.0% - UK Energy Research Centre (2009)

9.0% - consensus at theOilDrum & PeakOildotcom (2009)

Post-Peak Decline

The absolute volume of decreased annual production in a post-peak well, field or petroleum provinces is its Decline; often quoted in percentage terms as an annual Decline Rate. The TrendLines 19-model avg declines at 0.6% per annum measured from the 2024 Peak to Year 2050. Alternatively, when calculated from PEAK to the 10-mbd exhaustion threshold in Year 2189, it will average 1.4% annually. Compare this to the most aggressive rate mathematically possible (4.9%) for the hypothetical Worst Case Scenario.

Among our Tier-1 practitioners, predictions of First Year Production Decline range from Year 2012 by Sadad Al Husseini to Year 2091 by EIA.

The Avg Decline Rates range from Hutter's 0.4%/yr to 4.2%/yr shared by both EU/WETO & Chris Skrebowski.

Peak Oil: 95-mbd in 2023

March 31 2010 ~ TrendLines Research monitors the forecasts of peak oil depletion from around the globe. The top 18 and their average are plotted on a graph and each month this Tier-1 presentation is posted to the website. The remainder are plotted on a Tier-2 chart. For purists, a third chart plots the only 4 forecasts of the narrow definition of Regular Conventional Crude (light sweet). For posterity purposes, a final chart tracks the noteworthy historic failed predictions since 1956. This media release comprises the highlights of a broader analysis & charts available at our website each month. Click here for an archive of releases since 2004. Click here for an archive of charts only since 2004.

Below, this month's revision: (a) updates Tier-1 Outlooks by Pierre-René Bauquis & our own Hutter Peak Scenario 2200; (b) downgrades Outlooks by Kjell Aleklett & Colin Campbell from Tier-1 to the Invalidated Scenarios Archive; (c) updates the BP Outlook in Tier-2; (d) introduces the ITPOES Outlook in the Tier-2 category; (e) downgrades the Jeff Rubin Outlook from Tier-2 to the Invalidated Scenarios Archive.

2010 global production is on a pace that exceeds the 85.4-mbd annual record set in 2008. Monthly flow has been on a steady rebound since bottoming at 83.1-mbd in January 2009 (also the worst month of the USA Recession). The sector is poised for a new quarterly record in 2010Q4 and the monthly record should fall in January 2011. See the Monthly Report for higher resolution charts of current extraction. Historical analysis of Crude & Gasoline Price components & future target prices (out to 2035) can be viewed via our Gas Pump & Barrel Meter charts. A new chart compares our projections with long term Crude Oil Price Forecasts by Deutsche Bank, EIA, IEA, Jeff Rubin, Matt Simmons & theOilDrum.

Backgrounder

Interested in who had the best forecast ten years ago? Scroll to our Top-16 Vintage Predictions Scoreboard.

Today's Model Reviews:

In his third upward revision in three years, Pierre-René Bauquis has increased the Peak Rate of his 2020 target by almost 2-mbd to a baseline adjusted 102-mbd.

A favourite member of this 18-model Depletion study is of course my Peak Scenario 2200. The only depletion model that posts updates monthly, the current revision reflects only one factor: (a) 65-Gb decrease (RCC & Kerogen) in our URR estimate. A new "layer" chart has been introduced to give a second perspective of its components.

The model concludes the onset of terminal production decline can be brought on by either (a) constraints in securing sufficient proven reserves, or (b) due to rising Underlying Decline Observed surpassing the trend of annual New Capacity installations. PS-2200 pegs dates on these two events: 2051 & 2031 ... the latter establishing its 2030 Peak (100-mbd).

PS-2200 & Colin Campbell's Depletion Model are the only models with ongoing analysis of narrowly defined Regular Conventional Crude (light sweet oil). The departure in their views (see RCC chart) represents the rift between the optimistic & pessimistic camps. RCC peaked @ 68-mbd in 2005, and has been declining at a rapid 2.5%. Whereas Campbell foresees this rate continuing unimpeded 'til 2030, Hutter's position is that the rapid decline was Recession inspired and EOR/Reserve development activities will keep RCC flow in virtual plateau (-0.4%/yr) during the next two decades starting this year. Whether or not this year's RCC flow deteriorates or moderates makes 2010 the watershed year in foreshadowing All Liquids future path.

The Peak Scenario 2200 March Update elaborates on its bold hypothesis that Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO) rises and falls with the American Recessions. It contends UDRO has just demonstrated this phenomenon for a sixth time since 1970. On cue, its most recent loss cycle peaked at 3.1% in 2008, and will trough at 2.5% in 2012, before climbing to 3.7% in a probable 2017 Recession. The model estimates 79-mbd of Capacity was added since 1970 to address Underlying Decline Observed, and a further 59-Gb will be required for that purpose by 2030. The latter figure compares to IEA WEO-2008's estimated 45-Gb to 2030 & CERA's 2009 finding of a 31-mbd requirement over the next 21 years.

As mentioned in the intro, 2010 global production is on a pace to set new quarterly and annual records. To alleviate the skew caused by projections that have declared 2008 as Peak Year, the integrity of the average is being protected by downgrading the Outlooks by Kjell Aleklett & Colin Campbell from Tier-1 to the Invalidated Scenarios Archive. Similarly, there's downgrade of the Jeff Rubin Outlook from Tier-2 to the Invalidated Scenarios Archive.

Over the years, we've been supportive of the IPCC Reports but have warned that the underlying science assumptions have at times been hijacked by political operatives within the scientific community assisting the UN. Two of own efforts have been to present charting that exposes the junk science behind Gore-type rhetoric with respect to rapid sea level rise & the real available fossil fuel resource available for energy projections.

Another troubling event with respect to the discussion of peak oil occurred last month that mirrors such agenda-driven adventures. The UK's ITPOES (Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil Energy Security) presented what we feel to be a very political conclusions that defy the science within its own supportive documents.

Because of the high publicity it received, the second report of the ITPOES is introduced today to our Tier-2 presentation. It is relegated to Tier-2 because it chose not to include the projections of its own underlying forecast document (the Chris Skrebowski scenario in our February update) and instead suggests to the UK Gov't that "the world is imminently running out of oil".

In our February update, Skrebowski virtually admitted that the inherent fault in his bottom-up model is that it was in effect only a "worst case scenario" because it only recognized firm announced megaprojects. It used a premise that the energy sector is unlikely to install any future facilities after its short horizon. At ASPO-2005 his model was predicting a 2007 peak. His model necessitated annual upward revisions as new projects were made public. We applauded Chris (and other McPeaksters) who have in recent months adopted our own practice of applying a reasonable factor for future new capacity based on recent norms.

(March Depletion Scenarios update cont'd above... )

In the Skrebowski case, he now somewhat tackles this issue by assuming some new commissions will take place past 2015 ... but only to 2020. A great first step, eh! In the summary chart (pg 23 - figure 3.5 of his submission to ITPOES) he illustrates 2015-2020 production as an 89.5-mbd plateau.

Conversely, ITPOES describes his submission in its (pg 6) Executive Summary: "The net flow rate data shows that increases in extraction will be slowing down in 2011-13 and dropping thereafter" It goes on to present in its Taskforce View (chapter 6) a production projection chart (pg 39 fig 6.6 - footnoted to represent Skrebowski findings in Chapter 3) that ignores his 2014 92-mbd peak and instead imparts its own 2013 91-mbd production cap followed by an immediate 1% decline resulting in a mere 63-mbd rate by 2050.

ITPOES disturbingly misrepresents the new Skrebowski plateau methodology and presents its own unfounded dire forecast. Agenda-based distortions of scientific data do not further the discussion ... instead these actions call upon stakeholders and policy makers to question their credibility and integrity.

BP has finally updated its stale dated 2004 projection with a long term outlook amending its peak to 99-mbd in 2030, up from 90 in 2015. Elevation from Tier-2 status to Tier-1 is pending greater detail. The BP model was included in our initial presentation chart way back in 2004.

With respect to the oil study by Kuwait University's College of Engineering & Petroleum (Nashawi et al) released this month, it joins a select few studies mentioned in the Footnotes below that unfortunately do not approach the definition of All Liquids. Its 2008 production of 72-mbd includes RCC + some deep sea + some X-Heavy in Venezuela, but is substantially short of All Liquids 85-mbd tally for the year.

Further to the 18 Tier-1 models, 16 Tier-2 & Hail Mary outlooks are tracked regularly. For discussion and posterity purposes, 4 Regular Conventional Crude projections & 11 Invalidated Outlooks are presented as well. But, it is the Average of the 18 Tier-1 models that reveals the very best guidance, such as:

Future Extraction Rates:

2008: 85.4-mbd
2009: 84.2
2010: 85.7 (pending)
2023: 95 (Peak Year & Peak Rate)
2035: 92 (50% Extraction of URR)
2045: 85 (first year with flow less than today)
2050: 82
2060: 72 (fifty yrs from today)
2075: 60 ( 9.2-billion peak of global population)
2100: 40
2110: 34 (100 yrs from today)
2200: 10 (flows limited to GTL, CTL & renewable BTL)
2300: 4-mbd (flows limited to GTL, CTL & renewable BTL)

Estimated Ultimate Recoverable Resource (EUR-URR)

The Avg URR/EUR Estimate for the Tier-1 practitioners is 4,121-Gb when we deduct from the nominal average the volume attributable to renewable BTL (biofuels-to-liquid) as calculated by the Hutter PS-2200 model. It attributes a cumulative 512-Gb for BTL thru to Year 2300. This compares quite well to the 3,785-Gb Avg derived from our URR Study with its slightly different mix of providers.

TrendLines calculates Global Past Extraction (to 2009/12/31) to be 1229-Gb for All Liquids, of which 1077-Gb is attributable to Regular Conventional Crude (light sweet) & 4-Gb to BTL.

Exhaustion of the first trillion barrels of All Liquids reserves occurred in 2002. Via the 18-model avg, the second trillion will have passed by Year 2033; then the third by Year 2068 & fourth in Year 2119 (excl BTL). Annual flow will finally breach the 5-mbd threshold in Year 2292 as it approaches exhaustion.

Of the Tier-1 model contributors, the lowest URR tally is the 2,439-Gb used by Chris Skrebowski. The high is the EIA-Sweetnam hybrid with its 9.0-Tb URR.

Peak Date & Peak Rate

The 2023 95-mbd PEAK indicated by the 18-model Avg rests atop a backdrop Plateau (defined as within 2-mbd of Peak Rate) running from 2018 to 2033. As such, even minor Peak Rate variances of the Avg can result in significant shifts of the PEAK DATE. Our first exercise in averaging the models (13) indicated a 95-mbd PEAK in 2020. Depletion Scenarios' Updates since 2006 have highlighted PEAK DATES ranging from 2013 to 2030; and we have reported PEAK RATES running from 91 to 96-mbd.

Today's Tier-1 model Peak Dates range from Sadad Al Husseini's 2011 to the 2090 hybrid projection by EIA-Sweetnam.

March's forecasts of Peak Rate range from 86-mbd by Sadad Al Husseini to EIA-Sweetnam's 115.6-mbd.

We are humbled with this project's contribution to the narrowing of the spread by an incredible 3-mbd/yr. Today's spread of 30-mbd has diminished from 48 just five years ago. Generally, the pessimists have been upward revising their forecasts an average 1-mbd/yr, while the optimists have in turn been dropping by 2-mbd/yr. (Trivia Alert: this unholy methodology indicates that by 2020 the camps should merge with both agreeing to a Peak Rate of "96")

Depletion

A well, field or province depletes from the first day it is drilled. The total crude extracted from a field thus far divided by its original volume is its status of Depletion. Excluding 4-Gb accrued BTL, the 1,225-Gb of consumed petroleum divided by the 4,121-Gb Avg URR reveals global Depletion of 30% (to 2009/12/31).

The global Gross Depletion Rate (31-Gb annually extracted liquids as a percentage of global URR) is 0.8%/yr today. If measured as a percentage of remaining resource (2,896-Gb), the Net Depletion Rate is a higher 1.1%/yr.

Based on the 18-model Avg, the world's resource of 4,121-Gb is 30% depleted. The 2023 PEAK occurs at 41% Depletion. The 50% crossover of the URR Avg will occur in 2035.

Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO)

Post-Peak Decline

The absolute volume of decreased annual production in a post-peak well, field or petroleum provinces is its Decline; often quoted in percentage terms as an annual Decline Rate. The TrendLines 18-model Avg declines at 0.5% per annum measured from the 2023 Peak to Year 2050. Alternatively, when calculated from PEAK to the 10-mbd exhaustion threshold in Year 2196, it will average 1.3% annually. Compare this to the most aggressive 4.9% rate mathematically possible for the hypothetical Worst Case Scenario.

Among our Tier-1 practitioners, predictions of First Year Production Decline range from Year 2012 by Sadad Al Husseini to Year 2091 by EIA.

The Avg Decline Rates range from Hutter's 0.5%/yr to 4.2%/yr shared by both EU/WETO & Chris Skrebowski.

Peak Oil: 93-mbd in 2022

Marsh Lake, the Yukon Canada ~ Feb 28 2010 ~ This month's Tier-1 revision updates Outlooks by Chris Skrebowski & our own Hutter Peak Scenario 2200.

The global annual production record of 85.4-mbd was set in 2008. Monthly flow has been on the rebound since bottoming at 83-mbd in January 2009. The sector is poised for a new quarterly record in 2010Q4, with the monthly record falling in January 2011. See the Monthly Report for higher resolution charts of current extraction plus our historical analysis of Crude & Gasoline Price components & future crude price. The horizon of our Barrel Meter has been enhanced to illustrate 1yr, 5yr, 10yr & 25yr price targets; and a new chart compares our projections with long term Crude Oil Price Forecasts by Deutsche Bank, EIA, IEA, Jeff Rubin, Matt Simmons & theOilDrum.

Because OPEC manipulation invalidated both these projections, Colin Campbell attempted to update the long term prospects for All Liquids. The Irish geologist stunned many when in 1989 he declared that All Liquids flow (65.5mbd) would never again re-attain its 1979 pre-crisis Peak of 67-mbd (see all 3 charted). Well, he was very wrong (85mbd today). This episode made it quite clear that the uncertainty & price volatility caused by such pessimistic reports (even by well-intentioned professionals) required addressing by the energy sector.

In that regard, we saw OECD's IEA, USA's EIA, OPEC and major IOCs step forward with their own annual & bi-annual long term projections in an attempt to set the record straight and stabilize the marketplace. It didn't happen. As the ranks of McPeaksters were swelled by a growing element from the lunatic fringe, their well-intentioned message was hijacked and discourse deteriorated to the realm of economic and social collapse as the world runs out of oil. As the rhetoric escalated, we thought if would be constructive to provide a platform for these opposing views of the future.

TrendLines Research has been charting the world's very best All Liquids long term production profiles since 2004. Back in 2006, the 13-model Avg indicated a 95-mbd PEAK in 2020. Our not-so-hidden agenda has been to provide a venue where collaboration and comparison encourages a merging of the pessimistic/optimistic camps. After screening hundreds of scenario proposals, we are humbled with this project's contribution to the narrowing of the spread by an incredible 3-mbd/yr: reduced from 48-mbd (Campbell 80 & CERA 128) in 2004 to today's 30-mbd (Aleklett/Campbell 85.4 & EIA 115.6) spread.

Interested in who had the best forecast ten years ago? Scroll to our Top-16 Vintage Predictions Scoreboard.

Model Reviews:

The founder of bottom-up methodology was Chris Skrebowski and his Megaprojects analysis. A victim of its purism, annual upward revisions were required to update its Megaproject horizon. It and similar efforts at theOilDrum were worst case scenarios that assumed that the oil sector would not add to announced-to-date installations. Both now admit that the prospect of the industry to stop exploration and development is highly improbable; and have adopted the methodology of our own PS-2200 whereby the recent New Capacity trend is projected forward. Unlike PS-2200's extrapolation of the trend rate out to 2050, Skrebowski continues new projects 'til 2020 at which time all work mysteriously stops.

Another premise haunting the Skrebowski Outlook is its position that the Underlying Decline Rate Observed started at zero in 2002 and increased incrementally each year ... 4.7% in 2009. It makes no reference to the 51-mbd of megaprojects built from 1970 to 2002 over and above that needed to increase Demand.

In the end, his 2010 update establishes Peak @ 92-mbd in 2014 ... up 1-mbd and one year.

A favourite member of this 20-model Depletion study is of course my Peak Scenario 2200. The only depletion model that posts updates monthly, the current revision reflects two factors: (a) 40-Gb increase (RCC up, Kerogen down) in our URR estimate & (b) forecast allowance for Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO) in 2050 decreased to 4. 5% per annum.

Cumulatively, these changes had no effect on the Peak. Highlights include:

The Peak: 100-mbd in 2030

Post-Peak Production Decline Rate: 0.5% ('til 2050)

Worldwide Surplus Capacity: 6.6-mbd (exhausts in 2023)

The year flow breaches 2010 levels: 2052

URR/EUR: 7,624-Gb (consumed to 2009/12/31: 1229-Gb incl 4Gb BTL)

Depletion of URR: 16% Annual Gross Depletion Rate: 0.4% (Net: 0.5%)

The year 50% of URR consumed: 2104

The year oil (excl BTL) runs out: 2344

Underlying Decline Rate Observed for 2010 All Liquids - 2.9%

The onset of Terminal Decline can be brought on by either constraints in securing proven reserves, or due to rising Underlying Decline surpassing the trend of annual New Capacity installations. PS-2200 pegs dates on these two events: 2051 & 2031 - the latter establishing its 2030 Peak.

PS-2200 & Colin Campbell's Depletion Model are the only models with ongoing analysis of narrowly defined Regular Conventional Crude (light sweet oil). The departure in their views (see RCC chart) represents the rift between the optimistic & pessimistic camps. RCC peaked @ 68-mbd in 2005, and has been declining at a rapid 2.4%. Whereas Campbell foresees this rate continuing unimpeded 'til 2030, Hutter's position is that the rapid decline was Recession inspired and EOR/Reserve development activities will keep RCC flow in virtual plateau (-0.6%/yr) during the next two decades starting this year. Whether this year's RCC flow deteriorates or moderates makes 2010 the watershed year in foreshadowing All Liquids future path.

The Peak Scenario 2200 February Update continues the bold assumption that Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO) rises and falls with the American Recessions, and had in fact demonstrated this phenomenon for a sixth time since 1970. Its last cycle peaked at 3.1% in 2008, and will trough at 2.5% in 2012, before climbing to 3.7% in a probable 2017 Recession. The model estimates 79-mbd of Capacity was added since 1970 to address Underlying Decline Observed, and a further 58-Gb will be required for that purpose by 2030. The latter figure compares to IEA WEO-2008's estimated 45-Gb to 2030 & CERA's 2009 finding of a 31-mbd requirement over the next 21 years.

(February Depletion Scenarios update cont'd above... )

Further to the 20 Tier-1 models, 16 Tier-2 & Hail Mary outlooks are tracked regularly. For discussion and posterity purposes, 4 Regular Conventional Crude projections & 8 Invalidated Outlooks are presented as well. But, it is the Average of the 20 Tier-1 models that reveals the very best guidance, such as:

Future Extraction Rates:

2008: 85.4-mbd
2009: 84.1
2010: 85.6 (pending)
2022: 93 (Peak Year & Peak Rate)
2031: 91 (50% Extraction of URR)
2040: 85 (first year with flow less than today)
2050: 77
2060: 68 (fifty yrs from today)
2075: 55 ( 9.2-billion peak of global population)
2100: 36
2110: 31 (100 yrs from today)
2200: 9 (flows limited to GTL, CTL & renewable BTL)
2300: 4-mbd (flows limited to GTL, CTL & renewable BTL)

Estimated Ultimate Recoverable Resource (EUR-URR)

The Avg URR/EUR Estimate for the Tier-1 practitioners is 4,414-Gb. Albeit impossible to estimate the volume of renewable BTL (biofuels-to-liquid) included in the Avg, we can infer some guidance available from the Hutter PS-2200: it attributes a cumulative 512-Gb for BTL thru to Year 2300. Deducting the the taint of BTL indicates a preferred net URR/EUR of 3,902-Gb. This figure is quite close to the 3,785-Gb Avg derived from our URR Study with its slightly different mix of providers.

TrendLines calculates Global Past Extraction (to 2009/12/31) to be 1229-Gb for All Liquids, of which 1077-Gb is attributable to Regular Conventional Crude & 4-Gb to BTL.

Exhaustion of the first trillion barrels of All Liquids reserves occurred in 2002. Via the 20-model avg, the second trillion will have passed by Year 2033; then the third by 2069 & fourth in 2153 (incl BTL). Annual flow will finally breach the 5-mbd threshold in Year 2287 as it approaches exhaustion.

Of the model contributors, the lowest tally is the 2,425-Gb used by both Kjell Aleklett & Colin Campbell. The high is the EIA-Sweetnam hybrid with its 9.0-Tb URR.

Peak Date & Peak Rate

The 2022 93-mbd PEAK indicated by the 20-model Avg rests atop a backdrop Plateau (defined as within 2-mbd of Peak Rate) running from 2017 to 2031. As such, even minor Peak Rate variances of the Avg can result in significant shifts of the PEAK DATE. Our first exercise in averaging the models (13) indicated a 95-mbd PEAK in 2020. Depletion Scenarios' Updates since 2006 have highlighted PEAK DATES ranging from 2013 to 2030; and we have reported PEAK RATES running from 91 to 96-mbd.

Today's Tier-1 model Peak Dates range from Colin Campbell & Kjell Aleklett's stern position that 2008 will prove to be Peak, to the 2090 hybrid projection by EIA-Sweetnam.

February's forecasts of Peak Rate range from the joint position by Colin Campbell & Kjell Aleklett that the 85.4-mbd (2008) will never be surpassed, to EIA's 115.6-mbd (2090).

Depletion

A well, field or province depletes from the first day it is drilled. The total crude extracted from a field thus far divided by its original volume is its status of Depletion. Excluding 4-Gb accrued BTL, the 1,225-Gb of consumed petroleum divided by the 3.902-Gb Avg URR reveals global Depletion of 31% (to 2009/12/31).

The global Gross Depletion Rate (31-Gb annually extracted liquids as a percentage of global URR) is 0.8%/yr today. If measured as a percentage of remaining resource (2,677-Gb), the Net Depletion Rate is a higher 1.2%/yr.

Based on the 20-model Avg, the 2022 PEAK occurs at 42% Depletion. The 50% crossover of the URR Avg will occur in 2031.

Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO)

Post-Peak Decline

The absolute volume of decreased annual production in a post-peak well, field or petroleum provinces is its Decline; often quoted in percentage terms as an annual Decline Rate. The TrendLines 20-model Avg declines at 0.7% per annum measured from the 2022 Peak to Year 2050. Alternatively, when calculated from PEAK to the 10-mbd exhaustion threshold in Year 2182, it will average 1.4% annually. Compare this to the most aggressive 4.8% rate possible for the hypothetical Worst Case Scenario.

Among our Tier-1 practitioners, predictions of First Year Production Decline range from Year 2009 by Colin Campbell & Kjell Aleklett to Year 2091 by EIA.

The Avg Decline Rates range from Hutter's 0.5%/yr to 4.2%/yr by EU/WETO & Chris Skrebowski.

Peak Oil: 92-mbd in 2022

Marsh Lake, the Yukon Canada ~ Jan 31 2010 ~ This month's Tier-1 revision introduces the Richard Miller Outlook & updates our own Hutter Peak Scenario 2200.

With OPEC manipulation invalidating these projections, Colin Campbell attempted to update the long term prospects for oil. The Irish geologist stunned many when in 1989 he declared that All Liquids flow (65.5mbd) would never again re-attain its 1979 pre-crisis Peak of 67-mbd (see all 3). Well, the record was indeed obviously smashed (85mbd today), but the uncertainty & price volatility caused by such pessimistic views by well-intentioned professionals required addressing by the energy sector.

In that regard, we saw OECD's IEA, USA's EIA, OPEC and major IOCs step forward with their own annual long term projections in an attempt to set the record straight and stabilize the marketplace. It didn't happen. As the ranks of McPeaksters were swelled by a growing element from the lunatic fringe, their well-intentioned message was hijacked and discourse deteriorated to the realm of economic and social collapse as the world runs out of oil. As the rhetoric escalated, we thought if would be constructive to provide a platform for these opposing views of the future.

Interested in who had the best forecast ten years ago? Scroll to our Top-16 Vintage Predictions Scoreboard.

Model Reviews:

We're pleased to introduce an Outlook by Richard Miller of BP to our Tier-1 family. He's been producing annual projections since 2001, but they were deficient for our purposes 'cuz they excluded NGL, CTL, Bitumen & BTL. The UKERC has assisted Miller in rebasing his work, and the outcome is a profile with a 97-mbd Peak in 2015 built on a 2800-Gb foundation and sporting a 3.4% post-peak decline.

A favourite member of this 20-model Depletion study is of course my Peak Scenario 2200. The only depletion model that posts updates monthly, the current revision reflects two factors: (a) 77-Gb decrease (Kerogen) in our URR estimate & (b) forecast allowance for Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO) in 2050 decreased to 5% per annum.

Cumulatively, these changes decrease slightly the Peak Rate and accelerate Peak Date. Highlights include:

The Peak: 100-mbd in 2030

Post-Peak Production Decline Rate: 1.7% ('til 2050)

Worldwide Surplus Capacity: 6.3-mbd (exhausts in 2025)

The year flow breaches 2010 levels: 2046

URR/EUR: 7,584-Gb (consumed to 2009/12/31: 1229-Gb incl 4Gb BTL)

Depletion of URR: 16% Annual Gross Depletion Rate: 0.4% (Net: 0.5%)

The year 50% of URR consumed: 2108

The year oil (excl BTL) runs out: 2344

Underlying Decline Rate Observed for 2009 All Liquids - 2.7%

The Peak Scenario 2200 January Update indicates that Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO), which rises and falls with the American Recessions has demonstrated this phenomenon for a sixth time since 1970. Its final cycle peaked at 3.1% in 2008, and dwindled to 2.7% last year. The model estimates 78-Gb of Capacity was been added since 1970 to address Underlying Decline Observed, and a further 60-Gb will be required for that purpose by 2030. The latter figure compares to IEA WEO-2008's estimated 45-Gb to 2030 & CERA's 2009 finding of a 31-mbd requirement over the next 21 years.

(January Depletion Scenarios update cont'd above... )

Future Extraction Rates:

2008: 85.4-mbd
2009: 84.2
2010: 85.6 (pending)
2022: 92 (Peak Year & Peak Rate)
2039: 86 (50% Extraction of URR)
2040: 85 (first year with flow less than today)
2050: 77
2060: 68 (fifty yrs from today)
2075: 55 ( 9.2-billion peak of global population)
2100: 36
2110: 36 (100 yrs from today)
2200: 9 (flows limited to GTL, CTL & renewable BTL)
2300: 4-mbd (flows limited to GTL, CTL & renewable BTL)

Estimated Ultimate Recoverable Resource (EUR-URR)

The Avg URR/EUR Estimate for the Tier-1 practitioners is 4,415-Gb. Albeit impossible to estimate the volume of renewable BTL (biofuels-to-liquid) included in the Avg, we can infer some guidance available from the Hutter PS-2200: it attributes a cumulative 512-Gb for BTL thru to Year 2300. Without doubt, the taint of BTL causes the Avg to be much higher than the 3,785-Gb Avg derived from our URR Study, with its slightly different mix of providers.

TrendLines calculates Global Past Extraction (to 2009/12/31) to be 1229-Gb for All Liquids, of which 1077-Gb is attributable to Regular Conventional Crude & 4-Gb to BTL.

Exhaustion of the first trillion barrels of All Liquids reserves occurred in 2002. Via the 20-model avg, the second trillion will have passed by Year 2033; then the third by 2069 & fourth in 2153. Annual flow will finally breach the 5-mbd threshold in Year 2287 as it approaches exhaustion.

Of the model contributors, the lowest tally is the 2,425-Gb used by both Kjell Aleklett & Colin Campbell. The high is the EIA-Sweetnam hybrid with its 9.0-Tb URR.

Peak Date & Peak Rate

The 2022 92-mbd PEAK indicated by the 20-model Avg rests atop a backdrop Plateau (defined as within 2-mbd of Peak Rate) running from 2016 to 2032. As such, even minor Peak Rate variances of the Avg can result in significant shifts of the PEAK DATE. Our first exercise in averaging the models (13) indicated a 95-mbd PEAK in 2020. Depletion Scenarios' Updates since 2006 have highlighted DATES ranging from 2013 to 2030; and we have reported PEAK RATES running from 91 to 96-mbd.

Today's Tier-1 model Peak Dates range from Colin Campbell & Kjell Aleklett's stern position that 2008 will prove to be Peak, to the 2090 hybrid projection by EIA-Sweetnam.

December's Tier-1 forecasts of Peak Rate range from Colin Campbell & Kjell Aleklett's position that the 85.4-mbd (2008) will never be surpassed, to EIA's 115.6-mbd (2090).

Depletion

A well, field or province depletes from the first day it is drilled. The total crude extracted from a field thus far divided by its original volume is its status of Depletion. Excluding 4-Gb accrued BTL, the 1,225-Gb of consumed petroleum divided by the 4,415-Gb Avg URR reveals global Depletion of 28% (to 2009/12/31).

The global Gross Depletion Rate (31-Gb annually extracted liquids as a percentage of global URR) is 0.7%/yr today. If measured as a percentage of remaining resource (3,190-Gb), the Net Depletion Rate is a higher 0.9%/yr.

Based on the 20-model Avg, the 2022 PEAK occurs at 38% Depletion. The 50% crossover of the URR Avg will occur in 2039.

Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO)

Since November 2007, Peak Scenario 2200 has uniquely provided regular monthly reporting of Global UDO/UDRO status. Its long term analysis found that over the last 40 years, UDRO has averaged 2.7% annually. This means that of the 119-mbd of new facilities built since 1970, 78 served to address UDO & only 41-mbd raised Extraction Capacity from 51 in 1969 to 92-mbd today. Below, PS-2200 is compared to short term practitioner estimates of present/future All Liquids UDRO:

1.5% - CERA (2009-2030 Avg)

1.9% - Adam Brandt (2007 - sole peer-reviewed contribution)

1.9% - IEA (2008-2030 Avg)

2.9% - Freddy Hutter's Peak Scenario 2200 - Feb/2010 (4.5% by 2050)

4.1% - Matt Simmons (2009-2030 Avg)

4.2% - EIA (2009-2030 Avg)

4.2% - Jeff Rubin (2009)

4.5% - OPEC (2008)

4.7% - Chris Skrebowski (2010)

5.0% - Deutsche Bank (2009, rising to 8% by 2030)

5.0% - Total (2009)

5.2% - Schlumberger (2009-2030 Avg)

5.25% - Sadad al Husseini (2009)

7.0% - UK Energy Research Centre (2009)

9.0% - consensus at theOilDrum & PeakOildotcom (2009)

Post-Peak Decline

The absolute volume of decreased annual production in a post-peak well, field or petroleum provinces is its Decline; often quoted in percentage terms as an annual Decline Rate. The TrendLines 20-model Avg declines at 0.7% per annum measured from the 2022 Peak to Year 2050. Alternatively, when calculated from PEAK to the 10-mbd exhaustion threshold in Year 2182, it will average 1.4% annually. Compare this to the most aggressive 4.6% rate for the hypothetical Worst Case Scenario.

Among our Tier-1 practitioners, predictions of First Year Production Decline range from Year 2009 by Colin Campbell & Kjell Aleklett's to Year 2091 by EIA.

The Avg Decline Rates range from Hutter's 0.8%/yr to EU/WETO's 4.2%/yr.

Peak Oil: 93-mbd in 2024

Marsh Lake, the Yukon Canada ~ Dec 31 2009 ~ This month's Tier-1 revision updates Outlooks by EIA, ExxonMobil & our own Hutter Peak Scenario 2200.

Looking back, who had the best forecast ten years ago? Scroll to our Top-16 Vintage Predictions Scoreboard.

A new Annual Production Record of 85.4-mbd was set in 2008. But, with four G-20 Nations still in Recession, 2009 year-to-date extraction is running at a reduced 84.2-mbd (down 1.2) pace thru Nov 30th. Conversely, with November being only 1.2-mbd shy of the July/2008 monthly record, it appears that the sector is poised for a new quarterly record in 2010Q4, with the monthly record falling in January 2011. See the Monthly Report for higher resolution charts of current extraction plus our historical analysis of Crude & Gasoline Price components & future crude price.

Our Barrel Meter has been enhanced to illustrate 1yr, 5yr, 10yr & 25yr price targets; and a new chart compares our projections with long term Crude Oil Price Forecasts by Deutsche Bank, EIA, IEA, Jeff Rubin, Matt Simmons & theOilDrum.

TrendLines Research has been charting the world's very best All Liquids long term production profiles since 2004. In 2006, the 13-model Avg indicated a 95-mbd PEAK in 2020. Our not-so-hidden agenda has been to provide a venue where collaboration and comparison encourages a merging of the pessimistic/optimistic camps. After screening hundreds of scenario proposals, we are humbled with this project's contribution to the narrowing of the spread by an incredible 3.0-mbd/yr: reduced from 48-mbd (Campbell 80 & CERA 128) in 2004 to today's 30-mbd (Aleklett/Campbell 85.4 & EIA 115.6) spread.

Further to the 19 Tier-1 models, 16 Tier-2 & Hail Mary outlooks are tracked regularly. For discussion and posterity purposes, 4 Regular Conventional Crude projections & 8 Invalidated Outlooks are presented as well.

But, it is the Average of the 19 Tier-1 models that reveals many very useful factoids:

Peak Oil: 93-mbd in 2024

Post Peak Production Avg Annual Decline Rate to 2050: 0.7%

Global URR/EUR: 4,504-Gb

Global Depletion: 27%

Annual Gross Depletion Rate: 0.7%/yr (Net Rate: 0.9%/yr)

The year flow breaches 2009 level of 84-mbd: 2043

The year 50% of URR/EUR has been extracted: 2040

Future Extraction Rates:

2007: 84.4-mbd
2008: 85.4
2009: 84.2 (year-to-date)
2024: 93 (Peak Year & Peak Rate)
2040: 86 (50% Extraction of URR)
2043: 84 (first year with flow less than today)
2050: 78
2059: 70 (fifty yrs from today)
2075: 57 ( 9.2-billion peak of global population)
2100: 38
2109: 33 (100 yrs from today)
2200: 9 (flows limited to GTL, CTL & renewable BTL)
2300: 4-mbd (flows limited to GTL, CTL & renewable BTL)

Model Reviews:

Our first model review today is the EIA's AEO-2010. The decrease in its 2030 milepost was less than 1-mbd, but more importantly, it provides better horizon visibility with their premièring of a 2035 marker ... initially 112-mbd. As usual, we have married this update to their Sweetnam long term scenario with its 116-mbd peak in 2090. Sans BTL, EIA foresees the exhaustion of non-conventional liquids in Year 2318.

Also this month, ExxonMobil released its 2009 update with a 104-mbd target for 2030, a clipping of 4-mbd from last year's study. Notably, recalculations by ExxonMobil project that renewable fuels (excl hydro) will provide only 2.5% of total energy in 2030.

(December Depletion Scenarios update cont'd above... )

A favourite member of this 19-model Depletion study is of course my Peak Scenario 2200. The only depletion model that posts updates monthly, the current revision reflects five factors: (a) 28-Gb decrease (Kerogen) in our URR estimate; (b) annual new Capacity trend stymied by resource constraints after Year 2043; (c) annual new capacity trend trimmed to 3.5-mbd/yr; (d) allowance for Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO) by 2050 decreased to 7% per annum & (e) enhancement of Recession pauses in 2017 & 2026.

Cumulatively, these revisions decrease slightly the Peak Rate. Highlights include:

The Peak: 105-mbd in 2030

Underlying Decline Rate Observed: 2.8% 1970-2009 Avg, 2.9% (2009) & 7% by 2050

Post-peak Production Avg Decline Rate to 2050: 2.2%

URR/EUR: 7.7-Tb

The year 50% of URR/EUR consumed: 2110

The year flow breaches 2009 levels: 2046

The Peak Scenario 2200 December Update indicates that Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO) highest loss rate (6.3%) occurred in 1984, but moderated to a recent low of 1.6% in 2003. The model estimates 81-Gb of Capacity has been added since 1970 to address Underlying Decline Observed, and a further 54-Gb will be required for that purpose by 2030. The latter figure compares to IEA WEO-2008's estimated 45-Gb to 2030 & CERA's 2009 finding of a 31-mbd requirement over the next 21 years.

The rippled profile results from the harmonics of the underlying 7 unique flow streams. Visit our PS-2200 venue for lots more details and charts on URR, non-conventional dynamics, Underlying Decline and the inherent flaws incorporated within McPeakster modeling.

Estimated Ultimate Recoverable Resource (EUR-URR)

The Avg URR/EUR Estimate for the Tier-1 practitioners is 4,504-Gb. Albeit impossible to estimate the volume of renewable BTL (biofuels-to-liquid) included in the Avg, we can infer some guidance available from the Hutter PS-2200: it attributes a cumulative 512-Gb for BTL thru to Year 2300. Without doubt, the taint of BTL causes the Avg to be much higher than the 3,785-Gb Avg derived from our URR Study, with its slightly different mix of providers.

TrendLines calculates Global Past Extraction (to 2009/12/31) to be 1229-Gb for All Liquids, of which 1077-Gb is attributable to Regular Conventional Crude & 4-Gb to BTL.

Exhaustion of the first trillion barrels of All Liquids reserves occurred in 2002. Via the 19-model avg, the second trillion will have passed by Year 2033; then the third by 2068 & fourth in 2143. Annual flow will finally breach the 5-mbd threshold in Year 2289 as it approaches exhaustion.

Of the model contributors, the lowest tally is the 2,425-Gb used by both Kjell Aleklett & Colin Campbell. The high is the EIA-Sweetnam hybrid with its 9.0-Tb URR.

Peak Date & Peak Rate

The 2024 93-mbd PEAK indicated by the 19-model Avg rests atop a backdrop Plateau (defined as within 2-mbd of Peak Rate) running from 2018 to 2033. As such, even minor Peak Rate variances of the Avg can result in significant shifts of the PEAK DATE. Our first exercise in averaging the models (13) indicated a 95-mbd PEAK in 2020. Depletion Scenarios' Updates since 2006 have highlighted DATES ranging from 2013 to 2030; and we have reported PEAK RATES running from 91 to 96-mbd.

Today's Tier-1 model Peak Dates range from Colin Campbell & Kjell Aleklett's stern position that 2008 will prove to be Peak, to the 2090 hybrid projection by EIA-Sweetnam.

December's Tier-1 forecasts of Peak Rate range from Colin Campbell & Kjell Aleklett's position that the 85.4-mbd (2008) will never be surpassed, to EIA's 115.6-mbd (2090). We are humbled with this project's contribution to the narrowing of the spread by an incredible 3-mbd/yr. Today's spread of 30-mbd has diminished from 48 just five years ago. Generally, the pessimists have been upward revising their forecasts an average 1-mbd/yr, while the optimists have in turn been dropping by 3-mbd/yr. (Trivia Alert: this unholy methodology indicates that by 2016 the camps should merge with both agreeing to a Peak Rate of "92")

Depletion

A well, field or province depletes from the first day it is drilled. The total crude extracted from a field thus far divided by its original volume is its status of Depletion. Excluding 4-Gb accrued BTL, the 1,225-Gb of consumed petroleum divided by the 4,504-Gb Avg URR reveals global Depletion of 27% (to 2009/12/31).

The global Gross Depletion Rate (31-Gb annually extracted liquids as a percentage of global URR) is 0.7%/yr today. If measured as a percentage of remaining resource (3,290-Gb), the Net Depletion Rate is a higher 0.9%/yr.

Based on the 19-model Avg, the 2024 PEAK occurs at 43% Depletion. The 50% crossover of the URR Avg will occur in 2040.

Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO)

Post-Peak Decline

The absolute volume of decreased annual production in a post-peak well, field or petroleum provinces is its Decline; often quoted in percentage terms as an annual Decline Rate. The TrendLines 19-model Avg declines at 0.7% per annum measured from the 2024 Peak to Year 2050. Alternatively, when calculated from PEAK to the 10-mbd exhaustion threshold in Year 2189, it will average 1.4% annually. Compare this to the most aggressive 4.6% rate for the hypothetical Worst Case Scenario.

Among our Tier-1 practitioners, predictions of First Year Production Decline range from Year 2009 by Colin Campbell & Kjell Aleklett's to Year 2091 by EIA.

The Avg Decline Rates range from Hutter's 0.8%/yr to EU/WETO's 4.2%/yr.

Peak Oil: 93-mbd in 2026

Marsh Lake, the Yukon Canada ~ Nov 30 2009 ~ This month's Tier-1 revision updates Outlooks by CERA, IEA, Aleklett & our own Hutter Peak Scenario 2200.

Who had the best forecast ten years ago? Scroll to our Top-16 Vintage Predictions Scoreboard.

A new Annual Production Record of 85.4-mbd was set in 2008. But, with four G-20 Nations still in Recession, 2009 year-to-date extraction is running at a reduced 84.2-mbd (down 1.2) pace thru Oct 31st. With October 1.8-mbd shy of the (July/2008) monthly record, it appears that a new quarterly record is postponed 'til 2010Q4. See the Monthly Report for higher resolution charts of current extraction plus our historical analysis of Crude & Gasoline Price components & future price targets.

TrendLines Research has been charting the world's very best All Liquids production profiles since 2004. In 2006, the 13-model Avg indicated a 95-mbd PEAK in 2020. Our not-so-hidden agenda has been to provide a venue where collaboration and comparison encourages a merging of the pessimistic/optimistic camps. After screening hundreds of scenario proposals, we are humbled with this project's contribution to the narrowing of the spread by an incredible 5.2-mbd/yr: reduced from 48-mbd (Campbell 80 & CERA 128) in 2004 to today's 27-mbd (Aleklett/Campbell 85.4 & CERA 112.8) spread.

But, it is the Average of the 19 Tier-1 models that reveals many very useful factoids:

Peak Oil: 93-mbd in 2026

Post Peak Production Avg Annual Decline Rate to 2050: 0.8%

Global URR/EUR: 4,509-Gb

Global Depletion: 27%

Annual Gross Depletion Rate: 0.7%/yr (Net Rate: 0.9%/yr)

The year flow breaches 2009 level of 84-mbd: 2043

The year 50% of URR/EUR has been extracted: 2041

Future Extraction Rates:

2007: 84.4-mbd
2008: 85.4
2009: 84.2 (year-to-date)
2026: 93 (Peak Year & Peak Rate)
2041: 85 (50% Extraction of URR)
2043: 83 (first year with flow less than today)
2050: 77
2059: 70 (fifty yrs from today)
2075: 57 ( 9.2-billion peak of global population)
2100: 37
2109: 32 (100 yrs from today)
2200: 9 (flows limited to GTL, CTL & renewable BTL)
2300: 4-mbd (flows limited to GTL, CTL & renewable BTL)

Model Reviews:

Our first model review today is a CERA update authored by Peter Jackson. In a clarification of our depiction of their 2009 revision posted in August, we are trimming the 2035 Peak to 112.8-mbd from 114. This continues a downtrend that started from 128 back in 2004.

In a quite surprising turn of events, its forecast Underlying Decline Rate for the 2009-2030 time frame has been pared back to 1.5% (from 2.1% in 2008). This almost guarantees that we can look forward to substantial downward revisions in later versions. OTOH, Jackson has addressed many of the peeves within the McPeakster fraternity, which should in turn cause upward revisions in their studies.

During the past month the IEA was inundated with politically motivated attacks on its World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2009 update. The pre-emptive move by McPeaksters around the globe started a full week before the release when it was found that IEA was taking the unconventional move of addressing its long term target in an odd numbered year in an effort to set the record straight on its Peak Oil position.

Last year, its 107-mbd 2030 Peak Rate announcement was hijacked by a contrived disinformation campaign by McPeaksters who twisted statements by IEA officials on narrowly defined Conventional crude components to give the impression that IEA expected Peak Oil prior to 2020. Similarly, McPeaksters maligned IEA's long term study on Underlying Decline Rate Observed which projected a 1.9% loss rate for All Liquids over the next 23 years by disseminating reports again referring only to a sub-category figure of 6.7%.

This month's WEO Peak Rate trims 3-mbd from its 2008 effort, and is down 17 from its 2004 high of 121-mbd. As seen in our chart, its 104-mbd target for 2030 is but the 8th highest of the 19 models. IEA is today clearly within consensus territory as its 2030 flow level mirrors forecasts by EIA, OPEC, ExxonMobil and our own PS-2200. The campaign to discredit its geologists is plainly meritless.

In his latest update, Kjell Aleklett and his Uppsala University team make the admission that both they and Colin Campbell have miscalculated their downgrade of past and future NGL flows. They have found that EIA already adjusted NGL stats to compensate for its lower BTU properties. Thus by discounting EIA figures by a further 25%, Campbell & Aleklett have in fact double counted the BTU shortfall, thereby validating the approx 3-mbd that we added to both their projections earlier this year.

Aleklett maintains his premise that Peak Oil occurred in 2008, and has downgraded his 2030 target to 77 from 80-mbd.

(November Depletion Scenarios update cont'd above... )

A favourite member of this 19-model Depletion study is of course my Peak Scenario 2200. The only depletion model that posts updates monthly, the current revision reflects four major factors: (a) 103-Gb decrease (Kerogen) in our URR estimate; (b) annual new Capacity trend stymied by resource constraints after Year 2042; (c) annual new capacity trend trimmed to 3.7-mbd/yr & (d) 2050 target for Underlying Decline Rate Observed raised to 9% per annum.

Cumulatively, these revisions increase slightly the Peak Rate. Highlights include:

The Peak: 106-mbd in 2030

Underlying Decline Rate Observed: 2.8% 1970-2009 Avg, 3.0% (2009) & 9% by 2050

Post-peak Production Avg Decline Rate to 2050: 2.4%

URR/EUR: 7.8-Tb

The year 50% of URR/EUR consumed: 2108

The year flow breaches 2009 levels: 2045

The Peak Scenario 2200 November Update indicates that Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO) highest loss rate (6.3%) occurred in 1984, but moderated to a recent low of 1.6% in 2003. The model estimates 81-Gb of Capacity has been added since 1970 to address Underlying Decline Observed, and a further 56-Gb will be required for that purpose by 2030. The latter figure compares to IEA WEO-2008's estimated 45-Gb to 2030 & CERA's 2009 finding of a 31-mbd requirement over the next 21 years.

The rippled profile results from the harmonics of the underlying 7 unique flow streams. Visit our PS-2200 venue for lots more details and charts on URR, non-conventional dynamics, Underlying Decline and the inherent flaws incorporated within McPeakster modeling.

Estimated Ultimate Recoverable Resource (EUR-URR)

The Avg URR/EUR Estimate for the Tier-1 practitioners was steady with this month's version at 4,509-Gb. Albeit impossible to estimate the volume of renewable BTL (biofuels-to-liquid) included in the Avg, we can infer some guidance available from the Hutter PS-2200: it attributes a cumulative 563-Gb for BTL thru to Year 2300. Without doubt, the taint of BTL causes the Avg to be much higher than the 3,785-Gb Avg derived from our URR Study, with its slightly different mix of providers.

TrendLines calculates Global Past Extraction (to 2009/10/31) to be 1224-Gb for All Liquids, of which 1073-Gb is attributable to Regular Conventional Crude & 4-Gb to BTL.

Exhaustion of the first trillion barrels of All Liquids reserves occurred in 2002. The second trillion will have passed by Year 2033; then the third by 2068 & fourth in 2145. Annual flow will finally breach the 5-mbd threshold in 2293 as it approaches exhaustion.

Of the model contributors, the lowest tally is the 2,425-Gb used by both Kjell Aleklett & Colin Campbell. The high is the EIA-Sweetnam hybrid with its 9.0-Tb URR.

Peak Date & Peak Rate

The 2026 93-mbd PEAK indicated by the 19-model Avg rests atop a backdrop Plateau (defined as within 2-mbd of Peak Rate) running from 2018 to 2033. As such, even minor Peak Rate variances of the Avg can result in significant shifts of the PEAK DATE. Our first exercise in averaging the models (13) indicated a 95-mbd PEAK in 2020. Depletion Scenarios' Updates since 2006 have highlighted DATES ranging from 2013 to 2030. We have reported PEAK RATES running from 91 to 96-mbd.

Today's Tier-1 model Peak Dates range from Colin Campbell & Kjell Aleklett's stern position that 2008 will prove to be Peak, to the 2090 hybrid projection by EIA-Sweetnam.

October's Tier-1 forecasts of Peak Rate range from Colin Campbell & Kjell Aleklett's position that the 85.4-mbd (2008) will not be surpassed to CERA's 112.8-mbd (2035). We are humbled with this project's contribution to the narrowing of the spread by an incredible 5.2-mbd/yr. Today's spread of 27-mbd has diminished from 48 just five years ago. Generally, the pessimists have been upward revising their forecasts an average 1-mbd/yr, while the optimists have in turn been dropping by 3-mbd/yr. (Trivia Alert: this unholy methodology indicates that by 2016 the camps should merge with both agreeing to a Peak Rate of "92")

Depletion

A well, field or province depletes from the first day it is drilled. The total crude extracted from a field thus far divided by its original volume is its status of Depletion. Excluding BTL, the 1,220-Gb of consumed petroleum divided by the 4,509-Gb Avg URR reveals global Depletion of 27% (to 2009/10/31).

The global Gross Depletion Rate (31-Gb annually extracted liquids as a percentage of global URR) is 0.7%/yr today. If measured as a percentage of remaining resource (3,290-Gb), the Net Depletion Rate is a higher 0.9%/yr.

Based on the 19-model Avg, the 2026 PEAK occurs at 43% Depletion. The 50% crossover of the URR Avg will occur in 2041. Gross past production includes 4-Gb BTL.

Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO)

I call this net absolute figure, more applicable to our depletion studies, Underlying Decline Observed (UDO). It is expressed in millions of barrels per day (mbd) per annum. More commonly, analysis of RCC or All Liquids is conducted in percentage terms per time interval - the Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO) is appropriate. To maintain a production plateau, Production Capacity must be incrementally increased each year to match UDO loss. And, when the New Capacity trend no longer exceeds the UDO trend, Terminal Production Decline will commence.

CERA's 2009 study has determined that flow from currently in-place Capacity will deteriorate by 31-mbd in the next 21 years. In its recent WEO-2008, IEA presumes only 45-mbd of new Capacity is required to sustain a plateau 'til 2030. My own PS-2200 projects a figure of 56-mbd is more appropriate.

Post-Peak Decline

The absolute volume of decreased annual production in a post-peak well, field or petroleum provinces is its Decline; often quoted in percentage terms as an annual Decline Rate. The TrendLines 19-model Avg declines at 0.8% per annum measured from the 2026 Peak to Year 2050. Alternatively, when calculated 2026 PEAK to the 10-mbd exhaustion threshold in Year 2187, it will average 1.4% annually. This compares to the more aggressive 4.6% rate for the hypothetical Worst Case Scenario.

Among our Tier-1 practitioners, predictions of First Year Production Decline range from Year 2009 by Colin Campbell & Kjell Aleklett's to Year 2091 by EIA.

The Avg Decline Rates range from OPEC's 1.0%/yr to EU/WETO's 4.2%/yr.

Peak Oil: 93-mbd in 2026

Marsh Lake, the Yukon Canada ~ Oct 31 2009 ~ (rev 2009/11/4) This month's Tier-1 revision updates Outlooks by OPEC & our own Hutter Peak Scenario 2200. The Outlook by Rembrandt Koppelaar has been downgraded to Tier-2 once again.

Who had the best forecast ten years ago? Scroll to our Top-16 Vintage Predictions Scoreboard.

A new Annual Production Record of 85.4-mbd was set in 2008. But, with 6 G-20 Nations still in Recessions, 2009 year-to-date extraction is running at a reduced 84.0-mbd pace thru Sept 30th. That's 2.6-mbd below the monthly record of 86.6-mbd set in July 2008. See the Monthly Report for higher resolution charts of current extraction plus our historical analysis of Crude & Gasoline Price components & future price targets.

TrendLines Research has been charting the world's very best All Liquids production profiles since 2004. In 2006, the 13-model Avg indicated a 95-mbd PEAK in 2020. Our not-so-hidden agenda has been to provide a venue where collaboration and comparison encourages a merging of the pessimistic/optimistic camps. After screening hundreds of scenario proposals, we are humbled with this project's contribution to the narrowing of the spread by 3.8-mbd/yr: reduced from 48-mbd (Campbell 80 & CERA 128) in 2004 to today's 29-mbd (Aleklett/Campbell 85.4 & CERA 114.5) spread.

But, it is the Average of the 19 Tier-1 models that reveals many very useful factoids:

Peak Oil: 93-mbd in 2026

Post Peak Production Annual Decline Rate: 0.8% (measured to 2050)

Global URR/EUR: 4,510-Gb (consumed to 2009/10/31: 1224-Gb incl 4Gb BTL)

Global Depletion: 27%

Annual Gross Depletion Rate: 0.7%/yr (Net Rate: 0.9%/yr)

The year flow breaches 5-mbd: 2293

Future Extraction Rates:

2007: 84.4-mbd
2008: 85.4
2009: 83.6 (year-to-date)
2026: 93 (Peak Year & Peak Rate)
2040: 87 (50% Extraction of URR)
2044: 83 (first year with flow less than today)
2050: 78
2059: 70 (fifty yrs from today)
2075: 57 ( 9.2-billion peak of global population)
2100: 37
2109: 32 (100 yrs from today)
2200: 9 (flows limited to GTL, CTL & renewable BTL)
2300: 4-mbd (flows limited to GTL, CTL & renewable BTL)

Model Reviews:

Our first model review today is the 2009 OPEC World Oil Outlook. Formerly our 2nd highest projection, its 106-mbd Peak Rate is down 8-mbd from last year. One of the most comprehensive practitioners in Tier-1, they have trimmed 550-Gb from their URR ... a common trend in this new sub $80/barrel environment, as compared to 2008.

A favourite member of this 19-model Depletion study is of course my Peak Scenario 2200. The only depletion model that posts updates monthly, the current revision reflects three major factors: (a) 8-Gb increase (Regular Conventional) in our URR estimate; (b) annual new Capacity trend stymied by resource constraints after Year 2040; & (c) allowance for Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO) by 2050 raised to 7% per annum.

Cumulatively, these revisions have accelerated Peak Date by five years. Highlights include:

The Peak: 105-mbd in 2030

Underlying Decline Rate Observed: 3.1% (in 2009) & 2.8% (1970-2009)

Post-peak Production Decline Rate: 2.4% (measured to 2050)

URR/EUR: 7.8-Tb.

The year 50% of URR consumed: 2108

The year flow breaches 2009 levels: 2045

This Scenario is based on the premise that global Supply growth is determined by the annual balancing between added new Capacity and production loss via Underlying Decline Observed. The Peak Scenario 2200 October Update indicates that Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO) has averaged 2.8% since 1970, whilst featuring 8-yr cyclical surges correlating with the American Recessions.

The highest loss rate (6.3%) occurred in 1984, but moderated to a recent low of 1.6% in 2003. UDRO is 3.1% this year, appears headed to a 3.6% crest in 2010, and should attains a magnitude of 7% in 2050. The model estimates 81-Gb of Capacity has been added since 1970 to address Underlying Decline Observed, and a further 59-Gb will be required for that purpose by 2030. The latter figure compares to IEA WEO-2008's estimated 45-Gb to 2030 & CERA's 10-mbd requirement over the next ten years.

(October Tier-1 Scenarios update cont'd above... )

One of our earliest Tier-1 modellers finds himself demoted to Tier-2 for a second time. Rembrandt Koppelaar has an embattled past in reconciling his production profile with designated URR.

An October update to its six scenarios reduces Peak to 89-mbd in 2014 (from 92 in 2015), but ups the 2030 marker from 64 to 78-mbd. This played havoc with its 2016-Gb URR, and as seen in the Tier-2 chart, its Avg 7% post-peak decline rate moved its exhaustion curve into the Worst Case Scenario zone ... and disqualification. We look forward to Rembrandt's corrections and consideration for eventual reinstatement (again).

Estimated Ultimate Recoverable Resource (EUR-URR)

The Avg URR/EUR Estimate for the Tier-1 practitioners increased with this version to 4,510-Gb. Albeit impossible to estimate the volume of renewable BTL (biofuels-to-liquid) included in the Avg, we can infer some guidance available from the Hutter PS-2200: it attributes a cumulative 563-Gb for BTL thru to Year 2300. Without doubt, the taint of BTL causes the Avg to be much higher than the 3,785-Gb Avg derived from our URR Study, with its slightly different mix of providers.

TrendLines calculates Global Past Extraction (to 2009/10/31) to be 1224-Gb for All Liquids, of which 1073-Gb is attributable to Regular Conventional Crude & 4-Gb to BTL.

Exhaustion of the first trillion barrels of All Liquids reserves occurred in 2002. The second trillion will have passed by Year 2034; then the third by 2068 & fourth in 2143. Annual flow will finally breach the 5-mbd threshold in 2293 as it approaches exhaustion.

From the model contributors, the lowest tally is the 2,425-Gb used by both Kjell Aleklett & Colin Campbell. The high is the EIA-Sweetnam hybrid with its 9.0-Tb URR.

Peak Date & Peak Rate

The 2026 93-mbd PEAK indicated by the 19-model Avg rests atop a backdrop Plateau (defined as within 2-mbd of Peak Rate) running from 2018 to 2033. As such, even minor Peak Rate variances of the Avg can result in significant shifts of the PEAK DATE. Our first exercise in averaging the models (13) indicated a 95-mbd PEAK in 2020. Scenarios' Updates since 2006 have highlighted DATES ranging from 2013 to 2030. We have reported PEAK RATES running from 91 to 96-mbd.

Today's Tier-1 Peak Dates range from Colin Campbell & Kjell Aleklett's position that 2008 will prove to be Peak, to the 2090 hybrid projection by EIA-Sweetnam.

October's Tier-1 forecasts of Peak Rate range from Colin Campbell & Kjell Aleklett's position that the 85.4-mbd (2008) will not be surpassed to CERA's 114.5-mbd (2035). The spread of 29-mbd has diminished from 48 just five years ago. The pessimists have been upward revising their forecasts an average 1.2-mbd/yr, while the optimists have in turn been dropping by 2.8-mbd/yr. (Trivia Alert: this unholy methodology indicates that in time they should merge with both agreeing to a Peak of "94-mbd in 2017")

Depletion

A well, field or province depletes from the first day it is drilled. The total crude extracted from a field thus far divided by its original volume is its status of Depletion. Excluding BTL, the 1,220-Gb of consumed petroleum divided by the 4,510-Gb Avg URR reveals global Depletion of 27% (to 2009/10/31).

The global Gross Depletion Rate (31-Gb annually extracted liquids as a percentage of global URR) is 0.7%/yr today. If measured as a percentage of remaining resource (3,290-Gb), the Net Depletion Rate is a higher 0.9%/yr.

Based on the 19-model Avg, the 2026 PEAK occurs at 40% Depletion. 50% of the URR Avg will have been consumed by 2040. Gross past production includes 4-Gb BTL.

Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO)

I call this net absolute figure, more applicable to our depletion studies, Underlying Decline Observed (UDO). It is expressed in millions of barrels per day (mbd) per annum. More commonly, analysis of RCC or All Liquids is conducted in percentage terms per time interval - the Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO) is appropriate. To maintain a production plateau, Production Capacity must be incrementally increased each year to match UDO loss. And, when the New Capacity trend no longer exceeds the UDO trend, Terminal Production Decline will commence.

Post-Peak Decline

The absolute volume of decreased annual production in a post-peak well, field or petroleum provinces is its Decline; often quoted in percentage terms as an annual Decline Rate. The TrendLines 19-model Avg declines at 0.8% per annum measured from the 2026 Peak to Year 2050. Alternatively, when calculated 2026 PEAK to the 10-mbd exhaustion threshold in Year 2187, it will average 1.4% annually. This compares to the more aggressive 4.6% rate for the hypothetical Worst Case Scenario.

Among our Tier-1 practitioners, predictions of First Year Production Decline range from Year 2009 by Colin Campbell & Kjell Aleklett's to Year 2091 by EIA.

Their Avg Decline Rates range from OPEC's 1.0%/yr to EU/WETO's 4.2%/yr.

Worst Case Scenario

This hypothetical projection was introduced in Feb/2008 to put in perspective the ludicrous & persistent "running out of oil" comments by McDoomer & Lunatic Fringe elements within the McPeakster fraternity!

Using the lowest recognized estimate of All Liquids URR/EUR (2021-Gb by EWG/LBST 2008), and assuming 2008 (85.4-mbd) was Peak Year, this projection depicts the Average Decline Rate (4.6%) required mathematically to completely exhaust this very conservative Resource figure.

Significantly, this exercise reveals that half (42) of this year's 84-mbd All Liquids production rate will still be flowing in Year 2034, and in fact won't dip below 10-mbd until Year 2055. Finally, All Liquids exhausts in 2084. A post-peak production decline rate higher than 4.6% "strands URR" ... and that phrase is an oxymoron. Ignore all pundits that suggest a Post-Peak Decline Rate of over 4.6% in their musings. And, please read their alarmist TEOTWAWKI forecasts with these hard numbers in mind...

Peak Oil: 93-mbd in 2021

Sept 30 2009 ~ This month's Tier-1 revision updates Outlooks by Sadad Ibrahim Al Husseini, our own Hutter Peak Scenario 2200 & Total. In a juggling of the mix, we introduce an Outlook by Deutsche Bank and delete a dated Outlook by IFP. Meanwhile, our Vintage Predictions Scoreboard has been expanded to 18.

A new Annual Production Record of 85.4-mbd was set in 2008. But, with 6 G-20 Nations still in Recessions, 2009 year-to-date extraction is running at a reduced 84.0-mbd pace thru July 31st. That's 2.6-mbd below the monthly record of 86.6-mbd set in July 2008. See the Monthly Report for higher resolution charts of current extraction plus our historical analysis of Crude & Gasoline Price components & future targets.

TrendLines Research has been charting the world's very best All Liquids production profiles since 2004. Our not-so-hidden agenda has been to provide a venue where collaboration and comparison encourages a merging of the pessimistic/optimistic camps. After screening hundreds of scenario proposals, we are humbled with this project's contribution to the narrowing of the spread by 3.8-mbd/yr: reduced from 48-mbd (Campbell 80 & CERA 128) in 2004 to today's 29-mbd (Aleklett/Campbell 85.4 & CERA 114.5) spread.

But, it is the Average of the 20 Tier-1 models that reveals many very useful factoids:

Peak Oil: 93-mbd in 2021

Post Peak Production Annual Decline Rate: 0.7% (measured to 2050)

Global URR/EUR: 4.432-Tb (consumed to 2009/7/31: 1216-Gb incl 4Gb BTL)

Global Depletion: 27%

Annual Gross Depletion Rate: 0.7%/yr (Net Rate: 0.9%/yr)

The year flow breaches 2-mbd: 2315

Future Extraction Rates:

2007: 84.4-mbd
2008: 85.4
2009: 83.6 (year-to-date)
2021: 93 (Peak Year & Peak Rate)
2039: 86 (50% Extraction of URR)
2043: 83 (first year with flow less than today)
2050: 76
2059: 68 (fifty yrs from today)
2075: 55 ( 9.2-billion peak of global population)
2100: 36
2109: 31 (100 yrs from today)
2200: 9 (flows limited to GTL, CTL & renewable BTL)
2300: 4-mbd (flows limited to GTL, CTL & renewable BTL)

USA contract crude price had just set a monthly record $76.09/barrel when Sadad Ibrahim Al Husseini unveiled his first major Outlook in October 2007. Recognizing some stability of softer prices this Summer and sporting an Underlying Decline Rate Observed of 5.25%, Husseini has drastically chopped his URR estimate by 45%: from 5.1-Tb down to 2.8-Tb.

A favourite member of this 20-model Depletion study is of course my Peak Scenario 2200. The only depletion model that posts Updates monthly, the current revision reflects two major factors: (a) 18-Gb increase (Regular Conventional) in our URR estimate; (b) annual new Capacity trend stymied by resource constraints in 2042 (rather than 2048 in August).

Cumulatively, these revisions have postponed Peak Date by ten years. Highlights include:

The Peak: 103-mbd in 2035

Post Peak Production Decline Rate: 3.1% (measured to 2050)

URR/EUR: 7.8-Tb.

The year 50% of URR consumed: 2109

The year flow breaches 2009 levels: 2045

This Scenario is based on the premise that global Supply growth is determined by the annual balancing between added new Capacity and production loss via Underlying Decline Observed. The Peak Scenario 2200 September Update indicates that Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO) has averaged 2.8% since 1970, whilst featuring 8-yr cyclical surges correlating with the American Recessions and maximum depletion episodes within the major petroleum provinces. The highest rate (6.3%) achieved occurred in 1984.

UDRO is 3.2% today, and appears headed to a 3.6% crest in 2010. Amid further surges, the model assumes UDRO will average 6% by 2050. It estimates that 81-Gb of Capacity has been added since 1970 to address Underlying Decline Observed, and a further 62-Gb will be required for that purpose by 2030. This compares to IEA WEO-2008's estimated 45-Gb to 2030 & CERA's 10-mbd requirement over the next ten years.

PS-2200 & Colin Campbell's Depletion Model are the only efforts with ongoing analysis of narrowly defined Regular Conventional Crude (light sweet oil). The departure in their views (see RCC chart) represents the rift between the optimistic & pessimistic camps. RCC peaked @ 68-mbd in 2005, and has been declining at a rapid 2.6%. Whereas Campbell foresees that rate continuing unimpeded 'til 2030, Hutter's position is that EOR & Reserve development activities will moderate its Production Decline Rate to 0.3% from 2010 to 2025. Next year's RCC flow could be the watershed year in foreshadowing All Liquids future path.

Employing a 5% UDRO in its 2009 Outlook, Total has trimmed its 2020 Peak Rate to 96-mbd from 99 last year.

Over the past 20 months, probably the most robust original modeling has been conducted by the USA division of Deutsche Bank, and we are pleased to introduce their 2009 Outlook today to the Tier-1 family. It is primarily Demand driven with an approach that emphasizes Crude Price sensitivity among the main national players. Last year's 100-mbd Peak in 2020 is pared to 90-mbd in 2016.

Built on a 3.3-Tb URR platform and assuming 4.4% UDRO, the 2009 version finds that the next price spike (to $175/barrel & $2.75/gallon in 2016) will be instrumental in causing a Demand Peak that throws Price & Production both into terminal decline. It foresees massive adoption of hybrid/electric vehicles by consumers as gasoline costs climb over the next seven years.

(September Tier-1 Scenarios update cont'd above... )

The 2006 Outlook by IFP has been deleted. This French Petroleum Institute has been a source of excellent forecast studies in the past. In the interest of data integrity for the 20-model TrendLines Average, we have been deleting Outlooks after 36 months of inactivity.

Estimated Ultimate Recoverable Resource (EUR-URR)

The Avg URR/EUR Estimate for the 20 Model practitioners increased with this version to 4,432-Gb (from 4,534). The lowest estimate is the 2,425-Gb used by both Kjell Aleklett & Colin Campbell. The high is EIA's 9,000-Gb URR.

Albeit impossible to estimate the volume of renewable BTL included in the group's 4.4-Tb Average, we can secure some guidance from the Hutter PS-2200 which attributes a cumulative 491-Gb to BTL by 2300. It is mostly biofuels tainting that causes the figure to be so much higher than the 3.8-Tb Avg derived from our URR Study, with its slightly different mix of providers.

TrendLines calculates Global Past Extraction (to 2009/7/31) to be 1216-Gb for All Liquids, of which 1068-Gb is attributable to Regular Conventional Crude & 4-Gb to BTL.

Exhaustion of the first trillion barrels of All Liquids reserves occurred in 2002. The second trillion will have passed by 2033; then the third by 2069 & fourth in 2153. Annual flow will finally breach the 2-mbd threshold in 2315 as it approaches exhaustion.

Peak Date & Peak Rate

The 93-mbd in 2021 PEAK indicated by the 20-model Avg features a backdrop Plateau (defined as within 2-mbd of Peak Rate) running from 2017 to 2032. As such, even minor Peak Rate variances can result in significant shifts of THE PEAK DATE. Since 2006, the Scenarios Updates have revealed a range from 2013 to 2030 & avg Peak Rates have run from 91 to 96-mbd.

Today's Tier-1 Peak Dates range from Colin Campbell & Kjell Aleklett's 2008 assumption, to the 2090 hybrid projection by EIA-Sweetnam.

September's Tier-1 forecasts of Peak Rate range from Colin Campbell & Kjell Aleklett's 85.4-mbd (2008) to CERA's 114.5-mbd (2035). The spread of 29-mbd has diminished from 48 just five years ago. The pessimists have been upward revising their forecasts an average 1.2-mbd/yr, while the optimists have in turn been dropping by 2.8-mbd/yr. (Trivia Alert: this unholy methodology indicates that in time they should merge with both agreeing to a Peak of "94-mbd in 2017")

Depletion

A well, field or province depletes from the first day it is drilled. The total crude extracted from a field thus far divided by its original volume is its status of Depletion. Excluding BTL, the 1,212-Gb of consumed petroleum divided by the 4,432-Gb Avg URR reveals global Depletion of 27% (to 2009/7/31).

The global Gross Depletion Rate (31-Gb annually extracted liquids as a percentage of global URR) is 0.7%/yr today. If measured as a percentage of remaining resource (3,220-Gb), the Net Depletion Rate is a higher 0.9%/yr.

Based on the 20-model Avg, the 2021 PEAK occurs at 37% Depletion. 50% of the URR Avg will have been consumed by 2039. Gross past production includes 4-Gb BTL.

Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO)

On Nov 12 2008, I coined this net absolute figure, more applicable to our depletion studies, as Underlying Decline Observed (UDO). It is expressed in millions of barrels per day (mbd) per annum. More commonly, analysis of RCC or All Liquids is conducted in percentage terms per time interval - the Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO) is appropriate. To maintain a production plateau, Production Capacity must be incrementally increased each year to match UDO loss. And, when the New Capacity trend no longer exceeds the UDO trend, Terminal Production Decline will commence.

Since November 2007, Peak Scenario 2200 has uniquely provided regular monthly reporting of Global UDO/UDRO status. Its long term analysis found that over the last 40 years, UDRO has averaged 2.8% annually. This means that of the 120-mbd of new facilities built since 1970, 81 served to address UDO & only 39-mbd raised Extraction Capacity from 51 in 1969 to 90-mbd today. Below, the current PS-2200 stat for 2009 is compared to practitioner estimates of All Liquids UDRO:

1.9% - Adam Brandt (2007 - sole peer-reviewed contribution)

1.9% - IEA (2008)

2.1% - CERA (2008)

3.2% - Freddy Hutter's Peak Scenario 2200 (Sept/2009)

4.2% - EIA (2009)

4.2% - Jeff Rubin (2009)

4.5% - Chris Skrebowski (2008)

4.5% - OPEC (2008)

4.6% - Deutsche Bank (2009)

5.0% - Total (2009)

5.2% - Schlumberger (2009)

5.25% - Sadad al Husseini (2009)

9.0% - consensus at theOilDrum & PeakOildotcom (2009)

(UDO & UDRO: coined by Freddy Hutter of TrendLines in our 2008/11/12 Scenarios update)

Post-Peak Decline

The absolute volume of decreased annual production in a post-peak well, field or petroleum provinces is its Decline; often quoted in percentage terms as an annual Decline Rate. The TrendLines 20-model Avg declines at 0.7% per annum measured from the 2021 Peak to Year 2050. The hypothetical Worst Case Scenario has a more aggressive 4.6% Decline Rate. By Hubbert Curve theory, a Regular Conventional Crude (RCC) well/field/province generally commences decline at the point it approaches 50% Depletion.

Among our Tier-1 practitioners, predictions of First Year Production Decline range from Year 2009 by Colin Campbell & Kjell Aleklett's to Year 2091 by EIA.

As mentioned, the Post-Peak Avg Production Decline Rate measured to 2050 is 0.7%/yr. Alternatively, when measured from the 2021 PEAK to the 10-mbd exhaustion threshold in Year 2183, it will average 1.4% annually. Individually, this ranges from OPEC's 0.9%/yr Average to EU/WETO's 4.2%/yr Avg Decline Rate.

Peak Oil: 93-mbd in 2023

Aug 31 2009 ~ This month's revision updates Outlooks by CERA, our own Hutter Peak Scenario 2200, OPEC, Royal Dutch Shell & Total. The 1972 Club of Rome "Limits to Growth" projection is introduced today to the Invalidated Outlooks Archive. Our Vintage Prediction Scoreboard has been expanded to 16. Also introduced is a new charting of the world's only four recognized projections of Regular Conventional Crude, the oil affectionately known as "light sweet".

A new Annual Production Record of 85.4-mbd was set in 2008. But, with 12 of the G-20 Nations recovering from Recession, 2009 year-to-date extraction is running at a reduced 84.0-mbd pace thru July 31st. That's 2.6-mbd below the monthly record of 86.6-mbd set in July 2008. See the Monthly Report for higher resolution charts of current extraction plus our historical analysis of Crude & Gasoline Price components & future targets.

Further to the 20 Tier-1 models, 15 Tier-2 & Hail Mary outlooks are tracked regularly. For discussion and posterity purposes, 4 Regular Conventional Crude projections & 8 Invalidated Outlooks are presented as well.

But, it is the Average of the 20 Tier-1 models that reveals many very useful factoids:

Peak Oil: 93-mbd in 2023

Post Peak Production Decline Rate: 0.7% ('til 2050)

Global URR/EUR: 4.534-Tb (consumed to 2009/7/31: 1216-Gb incl 4Gb BTL)

Global Depletion: 27%

Annual Gross Depletion Rate: 0.7%/yr (Net: 0.9%/yr)

The year flow breaches 2-mbd: 2316

Future Extraction Rates:

2007: 84.4-mbd
2008: 85.4
2009: 83.7 (year-to-date)
2023: 93 (Peak Year & Peak Rate)
2041: 85 (50% Extraction of URR)
2043: 83 (first year with flow less than today)
2050: 77
2059: 69 (fifty yrs from today)
2075: 56 ( 9.2-billion peak of global population)
2100: 37
2109: 33 (100 yrs from today)
2200: 10
2300: 4-mbd (CTL & renewable BTL only)

They're back!! Forget about green shoots. A sure sign of the end of the global contraction has got to be the return to top spot in the Tier-1 Scenarios by CERA! Except for a brief spell while downgraded, CERA had pretty well dominated the #1 spot. In our March 2009 update, they lost top spot with their downward revision to 108-mbd amid CapEx concerns. Their optimistic 115-mbd Peak in 2035 this month brought about the reinstatement.

Our favourite member of this 20-model Depletion study is of course my Peak Scenario 2200. The only model that posts Updates monthly, the current revision reflects four major factors: (a) 319-Gb decrease (Kerogen & Regular Conventional) in our URR estimate; (b) projection for oil sector's average annual new Capacity reduced to 3.8-mbd (from 5.2); (c) Underlying Decline Rate Observed will rise to 5.9% (formerly 4.8) by 2050; (d) BTL long term potential downgraded to 4.9mbd from 15.5mbd.

Cumulatively, these revisions have accelerated terminal decline by twenty-three years. Highlights include:

The Peak: 100-mbd in 2025

Post Peak Production Decline Rate: 1.6% ('til 2050)

URR/EUR: 7.8-Tb.

The year 50% of URR consumed: 2109

The year flow breaches 2009 levels: 2045

This Scenario is based on the premise that global Supply growth is determined by the annual balancing between added new Capacity and production loss via Underlying Decline Observed. The Peak Scenario 2200 August Update concludes that Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO) has averaged 2.8% since 1970, whilst featuring 8.5-yr cyclical surges correlating with maximum depletion within the major petroleum provinces. The highest rate of 5.3% occurred in 1984.

UDRO is 3.1% today, and appears to be headed to a 3.5% crest in 2010. Further surges will occur in 2020, 2028 & 2036. It estimates that 81-Gb of Capacity has been added since 1970 to address Underlying Decline Observed, and a further 51-Gb will be required for that purpose by 2025. This compares to IEA WEO-2008's estimated 45-Gb to 2030 & CERA's 10-mbd requirement over the next ten years.

PS-2200 & Colin Campbell's Depletion Model are the only efforts with ongoing analysis of narrowly defined Regular Conventional Crude (light sweet oil). The departure in their views (see RCC chart) represents the rift between the optimistic & pessimistic camps. RCC peaked @ 68-mbd in 2005, and has been declining at a rapid 2.6%. Whereas Campbell foresees that rate continuing unimpeded 'til 2030, Hutter's position is that EOR & Reserve development activities will moderate the Production Decline Rate to 0.4% from 2010 to 2025. Next year's RCC flow could be the watershed year in foreshadowing the unfolding of All Liquids future path.

(August Scenarios update cont'd above... )

The most striking revision to OPEC's 2008 World Oil Outlook is the more than doubling of its URR estimate to 7.3-Tb. The Agency has enhanced its study with a bottom-up analysis that reveals an Underlying Decline Rate Observed of 4.5%. No doubt this was a factor in the paring of its Reference scenario 2030 Peak to 113-mbd from 118 in 2007.

2009 Updates to the Royal Dutch Shell outlook reveal a similar trimming. The featured Scramble Scenario pares its 2020 Peak to 97 from 99-mbd. The more optimistic Blueprints Scenario maintains its view of a steady 2020-2030 plateau, but pares the 2030 Peak to 100-mbd from 101 in 2008.

Total's two 2008 revisions have been remarkably identical to the Shell Blueprint above. It holds to its 2020-2030 plateau and trims the 2020 Peak to 99 from 100-mbd.

In 1972, the Club of Rome commissioned the MIT Globe3 model to design its long term outlook "Limits to Growth". The petroleum projections within its global energy analysis seem to have inspired MK Hubbert's 1974 major revision. Built on a 2.15-Tb URR, LTG forecast a 117-mbd All Liquids Peak in 1995. Quick on its tail, Hubbert's paper focused on Regular Conventional Crude only and projected a 111-mbd Peak, also in 1995, but employing a 2-Tb URR void of NGL & non-conventionals. Hubbert's previous paper had predicted a 34-mbd Peak.

Media references to LTG often mistakenly quote its pessimist view of "running out oil" before the end of the century. By depicting its findings in Invalidated Archive, it is seen that its forecast for exhaustion was not 'til 2075 and clearly this reference is out of context. It is but one more example that the alarmist rhetoric by zealots within the McPeakster, McDoomer & Global Warming fraternities have much to do with the marginalization of those movements by the Mainstream Media and policy makers over the last two decades...

Estimated Ultimate Recoverable Resource (EUR-URR)

The Avg URR/EUR Estimate for the 20 Model practitioners increased with this version to 4,534-Gb (from 4,442). The lowest estimate is Chris Skrebowski's 2,439-Gb & highest is EIA's 9,000-Gb URR. It is impossible to estimate the volume of renewable BTL included in the group's 4.5-Tb Avg. It can be said with certainty that the PS-2200 attributes a cumulative 513-Gb to BTL by 2300. It is mostly biofuels tainting that causes the figure to be so much higher than the 3.8-Tb Avg derived from our URR Study, with its slightly different mix of providers.

TrendLines calculates Global Past Extraction (to 2009/7/31) to be 1216-Gb for All Liquids, of which 1068-Gb is attributable to Regular Conventional Crude & 4-Gb to BTL.

Peak Date & Peak Rate

The 93-mbd in 2023 PEAK indicated by the 20-model Avg features a backdrop Plateau (defined as within 2-mbd of Peak Rate) running from 2017 to 2032. As such, even minor Rate variances can result in significant shifts of THE PEAK DATE. Since 2006, the Scenarios Updates have revealed a range from 2013 to 2030 & avg Peak Rates have run from 91 to 96-mbd.

Today's model Peak Dates range from Colin Campbell & Kjell Aleklett's 2008 to the 2090 hybrid projection by EIA-Sweetnam.

Today's model Peak Rates range from Colin Campbell & Kjell Aleklett's 85.4-mbd (2008) to CERA's 114.5-mbd (2035). The spread of 29-mbd has diminished from 48 just five years ago. The pessimists have been upward revising their forecasts an average 1.2-mbd/yr, while the optimists have in turn been dropping by 2.8-mbd/yr. Trivia alert: this unholy methodology indicates that in time they should come together shortly and both agree to a Peak of "94-mbd in 2017". Monitoring of the merging will continue!!

Depletion

A well, field or province depletes from the first day it is drilled. The total crude extracted from a field thus far divided by its original volume is its status of Depletion. Excluding BTL, the 1,212-Gb of consumed petroleum divided by the 4,534-Gb Avg URR reveals global Depletion of 27% (to 2009/7/31).

The global Gross Depletion Rate (31-Gb annually extracted liquids as a percentage of global URR) is 0.7%/yr today. If measured as a percentage of remaining resource (3,228-Gb), the Net Depletion Rate is a higher 0.9%/yr.

Based on the 20-model Avg, the 2023 PEAK occurs at 37% Depletion. 50% of the URR Avg will have been consumed by 2041. Gross past production includes 4-Gb BTL.

Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO)

On Nov 12 2008, I coined this net absolute figure, more applicable to our depletion studies, as Underlying Decline Observed (UDO) per time interval, to be expressed in millions of barrels per day (mbd) per annum. More commonly, analysis is conducted in percentage terms per period for Regular Conventional Crude or All Liquids ... the Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO) is appropriate. To maintain a production plateau, Production Capacity must be incrementally increased each year to match UDO loss. And, when the New Capacity trend no longer exceeds the UDO trend, Terminal Production Decline will commence.

Since November 2007, Peak Scenario 2200 has uniquely provided regular monthly reporting of Global UDO/UDRO status, spotlighting two rather mature provinces: Saudi Arabia & the USA.

The current practitioner estimates of global UDRO for All Liquids are:

1.9% - Adam Brandt (2007 - only peer-reviewed contribution)

1.9% - IEA (2008)

2.1% - CERA (2008)

3.1% - Freddy Hutter's Peak Scenario 2200 (August 2009)

4.2% - EIA (2009)

4.2% - Jeff Rubin (2009)

4.5% - Chris Skrebowski (2008)

4.5% - OPEC (2008)

5.0% - Total (2009)

5.2% - Schlumberger (2009)

5.25% - Sadad al Husseini (2009)

9.0% - consensus at theOilDrum & POdotcom (2009)

(UDO & UDRO: coined by Freddy Hutter of TrendLines in our 2008/11/12 Scenarios update)

Peak Oil: 93-mbd in 2023

July 31 2009 ~ (rev 90811) This month's revision updates my own Freddy Hutter Peak Scenario 2200 & introduces a model by Kjell Aleklett, Outlooks by Pierre-Rene Bauquis & Colin Campbell have been upgraded from Tier-2 status to Tier-1. Scenarios by Peter Odell & Brandt-Farrell are introduced to Tier-2. And finally, an update to the Duncan-Youngquist projection in the Invalidated Archive.

A new Annual Production Record of 85.46-mbd was set in 2008. But with 12 of the G-20 Nations in Recession, 2009 year-to-date extraction is running at a reduced 83.7-mbd pace thru June 30th. That's 3.0-mbd below the monthly record of 86.7-mbd set in July 2008. See the Monthly Report for higher resolution charts of current extraction and our historical analysis of Crude & Gasoline Price components and future targets.

TrendLines Research has been chart tracking the world's very best All Liquids production profiles since 2004. Our not-so-hidden agenda has been to provide a venue where collaboration and comparison encourages a merging of the pessimistic/optimistic camps. After screening hundreds of scenario proposals, we are humbled with this project's contribution to the narrowing of the spread by 4.5-mbd/yr: reduced from 48-mbd (Campbell 80 & CERA 128) in 2004 to today's 27-mbd (Aleklett/Campbell 85.5 & EU-WETO 112.7).

23 Tier-2, Hail Mary & Invalidated Outlooks are included for discussion and posterity purposes. But it is the Average of the 20 Tier-1 models that reveals many very useful factoids:

The Peak: 93-mbd in 2023

Post Peak Production Decline Rate: 0.7% ('til 2050)

URR/EUR: 4.442-Tb (consumed to 2009/6/30: 1218-Gb incl BTL)

Depletion: 27%

Annual Gross Depletion Rate: 0.7% (Net: 0.9%)

The year 50% of URR consumed: 2039

The year flow breaches 2009 levels: 2042

The year flow breaches 5-mbd: 2293

Future Extraction Rates (mbd)

2007: 84.4-mbd
2008: 85.5
2009: 83.7 (year-to-date)
2023: 93 (Peak Year & Peak Rate)
2039: Extraction 50% of URR
2042: 83 (first year with flow less than today)
2050: 77
2059: 68 (fifty yrs from today)
2075: 54 ( 9.2-billion peak of global population)
2100: 35
2109: 31 (one hundred yrs from today)
2200: 8
2300: 4 (CTL & renewable BTL only)

Our favourite member of this 20-model Depletion study is of course my Peak Scenario 2200. The only model that posts Updates monthly, the current revision reflects three major factors: (a) 2,669-Gb increase (CTL & GTL up, Kerogen & Regular Conventional down) in our URR estimate; (b) the oil sector's average annual new Capacity uptrend of 3.5-mbd will finally face resource constraints as it peaks @ 5.2-mbd in Year 2048; (c) Underlying Decline Rate Observed rises to 4.8% by 2050.

It is this environment, with annual Underlying Decline finally out-pacing New Capacity, that initiates Terminal Decline. Highlights include:

The Peak: 103-mbd in 2048

Post Peak Production Decline Rate: 2.4% ('til 2050)

URR/EUR: 8.1-Tb.

The year 50% of URR consumed: 2100

The year flow breaches 2009 levels: 2056

The year flow breaches 20-mbd: 2323

This Scenario is based on the premise that global Supply growth is determined by the annual balancing between added new Capacity and production loss via Underlying Decline Observed. The Peak Scenario 2200 July Update concludes that Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO) has averaged 2.8% since 1970, whilst featuring 8.4-yr cyclical surges correlating with maximum depletion within the major petroleum provinces. The highest rate of 5.3% occurred in 1984.

UDRO is 3.1% today, and appears to be headed to a 3.3% crest in 2011. Further surges will occur in 2020, 2028 & 2036. It estimates that 82-Gb of Capacity has been added since 1970 to address Underlying Decline Observed, and a further 72-Gb (compared to IEA WEO's 45-Gb) will be required for that purpose by 2030.

We're pleased to introduce Kjell Aleklett's first All Liquids Outlook. The author assisted Colin Campbell with the formation of ASPO. One of his Uppsala Univ (Sweden) grad students is Tier-2's Fredric Robelius.

Aleklett has joined the chorus with Colin Campbell, Robert Hirsch & Jeff Rubin in asserting that global production peaked in 2008. At 3.6%, only the EU-WETO model has a more aggressive post-peak decline rate.

Regular TrendLiners would be familiar with our practice of disqualifying overly optimistic Outlooks. Pierre-Rene Bauquis's effort met that fate in May 2009 by exceeding the 2013 92.5-mbd threshold. Starting this month, new methodology sets a standard of 96.2 in 2014 ... and i am pleased that this projection re-slips under the radar and is upgraded to Tier-1 status again from a brief relegation to the Tier-2 presentation.

(July Scenarios update cont'd above... )

Since February 2009 i've been troubled by Colin Campbell's chopping of 3mbd off his past/present/future NGL figures. Unresponsive in defending this action, his Depletion Model was downgraded to Tier-2. It has been found subsequently that both Campbell & Aleklett are amending their NGL stats to reflect lower BTU content. Albeit this breaks with half a century of traditional counting, both of these Scenarios have been welcomed to Tier-1 status today. An adjustment to the baselines has been implemented, reversing their "creativeness" and correcting any agenda-driven motives.

A quite robust model has been developed by Americans Adam Brandt & Alexander Farrell. Unfortunately it failed the 2014 threshold test and is introduced today via the Tier-2 presentation. I am both hopeful and confident that subsequent fine tuning will be rewarded with a rise to prominence. In the meantime, it sports a 146 peak in 2045 built on an inferred 6.7-tb URR.

Long time practitioner Peter Odell (Netherlands) updated his forecast in July. Perhaps based on conjecture, its introduction is also being held at Tier-2 status for the time being. Featuring a 129-mbd peak in 2050, it is a refinement of his Y2k Outlook (134-mbd Peak in 2059) that has been added today to our TrendLines Scoreboard below. It becomes the fifth best effort of the long-term forecasts!

Finally, in a housekeeping measure, the 1998 Duncan-Youngquist model introduced to the Invalidated Archive earlier this year has been replaced by their 1999 Outlook: projecting an 87-mbd Peak in 2007.

Peak Date & Peak Rate

Today's model Peak Dates range from Colin Campbell & Kjell Aleklett's 2008 to the 2090 projection by EIA (Sweetnam).

Today's model Peak Rates range from Colin Campbell & Kjell Aleklett's 85.5-mbd (2008) to the EU's WETO-POLES model's 112.7-mbd (2038). The spread of 27-mbd has diminished from 48 just five years ago. The pessimists have been upward revising their forecasts an average 1.2-mbd/yr, while the optimists have in turn been dropping by 3.3-mbd/yr. Trivia alert: this unholy methodology indicates that in time they should come together shortly and both agree to a Peak of "93-mbd in 2016". Monitoring of the merging will continue!!

Depletion

A well, field or province depletes from the first day it is drilled. The total crude extracted from a field thus far divided by its original volume is its status of Depletion. Excluding BTL, the 1,214-Gb of consumed petroleum divided by the 4,442-Gb Avg URR reveals global Depletion of 27% (to 2009/6/30).

The global Gross Depletion Rate (30-Gb annually extracted liquids as a percentage of global URR) is 0.7%/yr today. If measured as a percentage of remaining resource (3,228-Gb), the Net Depletion Rate is a higher 0.9%/yr.

Based on the 17-model Avg, the 2023 PEAK occurs at 38% Depletion. 50% of the URR Avg will have been consumed by 2039. Gross past production includes 4-Gb BTL.

Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO)

This net figure, more applicable to Depletion factor studies, is what i've coined as the industry's Underlying Decline Observed (UDO) per time interval, and is expressed in millions of barrels per day (mbd) per annum. More commonly, analysis is conducted in percentage terms per period for Regular Conventional Crude or All Liquids ... the Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO). To maintain a production plateau, Production Capacity must be incrementally increased each year to match UDO loss. And, when the New Capacity trend no longer exceeds the UDO trend, Terminal Production Decline will commence.

Since November 2007, Peak Scenario 2200 has uniquely provided regular monthly reporting of Global UDO/UDRO status, spotlighting two rather mature provinces: Saudi Arabia & the USA.

The current practitioner estimates of UDRO for All Liquids are:

1.9% - IEA (2008)

2.1% - CERA (2008)

3.1% - Freddy Hutter's Peak Scenario 2200 (July 2009)

4.2% - EIA (2009)

4.2% - Jeff Rubin (2009)

4.5% - Chris Skrebowski (2008)

Post-Peak Decline

The absolute volume of decreased annual production post-peak in a well, field or petroleum provinces is its Decline; often quoted in percentage terms as a Decline Rate. The TrendLines 20-model Avg declines at 0.7% per annum measured from 2023 to 2050. The hypothetical Worst Case Scenario has a more aggressive 4.5% Decline Rate. By Hubbert Curve theory, in general terms a Regular Conventional Crude (RCC) well/field/province commences decline at the point it approaches 50% Depletion.

Among our Tier-1 practitioners, First Year of Production Decline ranges from Colin Campbell & Kjell Aleklett's 2009 forecast to EIA's 2091.

As mentioned, the Post-Peak Avg Production Decline Rate measured to 2050 is 0.7%/yr. When averaged from Peak to the 10-mbd exhaustion threshold in 2184, it will average 1.4%, ranging from Sadad al Husseini's 1.0% Avg to the EU/WETO's 4.2% Avg Decline Rate.

Estimated Ultimate Recoverable Resource (EUR-URR)

The Avg URR/EUR Estimate for the 20 Model practitioners increased with this version to 4,442-Gb (from 4.55). The lowest estimate is Chris Skrebowski's 2,439-Gb & highest is EIA's 9,000-Gb URR. It is impossible to estimate the volume of renewable BTL included in the group's 4.4-Tb Avg. It is mostly that tainting that causes the figure to be so much higher than the 3.8-Tb Avg derived from our URR Study, with its slightly different mix of providers.

TrendLines calculates Global Past Extraction (to 2009/6/30) to be 1218-Gb for All Liquids, of which 1085-Gb is attributable to Regular Conventional Crude & 4-Gb to BTL.

Worst Case Scenario

This hypothetical projection was introduced in Feb/2008 to put in perspective the ludicrous & persistent "running out of oil" comments by the lunatic fringe! Using the lowest recognized estimate of All Liquids URR (2024-Gb by EWG/LBST 2008), and assuming 2008 (85.5-mbd) as Peak Year, this projection depicts the Avg Decline Rate of 4.5% required mathematically to exhaust this conservative URR.

The significance is that half of this year's volume will still be available in 2035 and flow won't dip below 10-mbd until 2053 AD. At worse, All Liquids exhausts in 2082. A post-peak production decline rate higher than 4.5% "strands URR" ... and that phrase is an oxymoron. Ignore all pundits that suggest a Post-Peak Avg Decline Rate of over 4.5% in their musings. And please read their alarmist TEOTWAWKI forecasts with these hard numbers in mind...

Peak Oil: 94-mbd in 2028

June 30th ~ (rev 2009/7/5)

This month's revision updates models by Chris Skrebowski & my own Freddy Hutter Peak Scenario 2200. The IEA's 450 Scenario is replaced with their Reference Scenario. And, we upgrade the PFC Energy Outlook from Tier-2 status.

A new Annual Production Record of 85.46-mbd was set in 2008. But with 12 of the G-20 Nations in Recession, 2009 year-to-date extraction is running at a reduced 83.7-mbd pace thru May 31st. That's 3.0-mbd below the monthly record of 86.7-mbd set in July 2008. See the Monthly Report for higher resolution charts of current extraction and our analysis of Crude & Gasoline Prices.

TrendLines Research has been chart tracking the world's very best All Liquids production profiles since 2004. Our not-so-hidden agenda has been to provide a venue where collaboration and comparisons encourage a merging of the pessimistic/optimistic camps. After screening hundreds of scenario proposals, we are humbled with this project's contribution to the narrowing of the spread by 4.5-mbd/yr: reduced from 48-mbd (Campbell 80 & CERA 128) in 2004 to today's 27-mbd (Husseini 86 & EU-WETO 113).

23 Tier-2, Hail Mary & Invalidated Outlooks are included for discussion and posterity purposes. But it is the Average of the 17 Tier-1 models that reveals many very useful factoids:

The Peak: 94-mbd in 2028

Post Peak Decline Rate: 0.7% (til 2050)

URR/EUR: 4.6-Tb.

The year 50% of URR consumed: 2041

The year flow breaches 2009 levels: 2048

The year flow breaches 5-mbd: 2239

Future Extraction Rates (mbd)

2007: 84.4-mbd
2008: 85.5
2009: 83.7 (year-to-date)
2028: 94 (Peak Year & Peak Rate)
2041: Extraction 50% of URR
2048: 83 (first year with flow less than today)
2050: 82
2059: 74 (fifty yrs from today)
2075: 59 (peak of global population)
2100: 39
2109: 35 (one hundred yrs from today)
2200: 8
2300: 3 (renewable BTL only)

(June update cont'd above... )

Chris Skrebowski's database study of the globe's Megaprojects brought industry attention to the phenomenon that I've coined as Underlying Decline Rate Observed. He found UDRO to be responsible for a 1% loss in All Liquids production in 2003, and believes the rate has been rising ever since.

As a pioneer of bottom-up modeling, his projections of Peak Oil are based on his calculations of new capacity coming on stream less a 4.5% UDRO factor. An inherent error of this methodology is the necessity to constantly upward revise as new facilities outside the visible five year horizon are announced.

The latest Skrebowski forecast has Peak as 91-mbd in 2013. Albeit he projects an avg 2% post-peak decline rate to exhaustion, our reconciliation with his 2439-Gb URR indicates a 3.5% decline rate is evident.

Our favourite member of the 17-model Depletion study is of course my Peak Scenario 2200. As a result of postponed/cancelled MegaProjects reducing the new capacity trend to 3.5-mbd/yr, the June Update lowers Peak Rate to 105-mbd from 112, and postpones Peak Date ten years to 2050.

Highlights: Post-peak Decline has been decreased to 2.1%. All Liquids flow will not fall below this year's pace 'til 2061. A reduction of Kerogen resource is mainly responsible for lowering my URR estimate 84-Gb to 5.43-Tb.

Hubbert is back! 50% of the above URR will be exhausted a mere two years after Peak.

UDRO is 3.2% today, and appears to be headed to a 3.5% crest in 2011. It estimates that 82-Gb of Capacity has been added since 1970 to address Underlying Decline Observed, and a further 137-Gb will be required for that purpose over the next 245 years.

The wavy profile results from the harmonics of the underlying 7 unique flow streams thru to 2300 AD. Visit our PS-2200 venue for lots more details and charts on URR, non-conventional dynamics, Underlying Decline and the inherent flaws incorporated within McPeakster modeling.

I've always been uncomfortable with IEA's 450 Scenario 'cuz its based on fantasy ... not geology. This is a scenario that the IEA "hopes" will unfold to "save the environment". We featured it rather than their Reference Scenario as the latter had some major flaws of its own.

This week's MTOMR release reworks the WEO-2008 data and together have marked improvement. Forecasting a 2030 Peak of 107-mbd, a major disappointment is its premise of an Avg 1.9% Underlying Decline Rate Observed thru that time span. Failure of that coming to fruition will force future downgrades of its Peak Rate.

We are pleased this month to reinstate the PFC Energy Outlook. Their 2008 effort was downgraded in April 2009 due to its failure to pass our stricter 2013 milepost test. Its production profile was overly optimistic. Going back to drawing board, this month's release of PFC Energy 2009 raises Peak from 100 to 106, but postpones Peak Date to 2022 from 2015. This more gradual incline was successful at our 2013 due diligence marker, and hence the upgrade to Tier-1 status.

Peak Rate

The 17-model Avg PEAK of 94-mbd in 2028 features a back drop Plateau (defined as within 2-mbd of Peak Rate) running from 2018 to 2034. As such, one would expect even minor variances to produce significant date shifts of THE PEAK DATE. In reality, it has moved little since the inaugural Avg in 2006 (95-mbd in 2020).

Today's forecast Peak Rates range from Sadad al Husseini's 86-mbd (2011) to the EU's WETO-POLES model's 113-mbd (2038). The spread of 27-mbd has diminished from 48 just five years ago. The pessimists have been upward revising their forecasts an average 1.2-mbd/yr, while the optimists have in turn been dropping by 3.3-mbd/yr. Trivia alert: continuing this unholy methodology indicates that in time they should come together shortly and both agree to a Peak of 93-mbd in 2016. Monitoring of the merging will continue!!

Empirical examples of Peak vs 50% URR have been provided by observing Regular Conventional Crude. After a GLOBAL PEAK in 2005, RCC passed the midpoint of its 2,050-Gb URR in July 2007. The USA passed its 50% URR midpoint in 1966, only four years prior to the USA RCC PEAK. Similarly, Saudi Arabia appears to be undergoing a PEAK of its Maximum Sustainable Capacity (MSC) in Autumn 2009, just seven years prior to the crossing of its 50% URR midpoint in 2016.

All Liquids comprises 12 unique streams and may very well exhibit this same tendency. The crossover of its 4.55-Tb Avg URR occurs in 2041 AD ... 13 years after GLOBAL PEAK.

Peak Oil: 93-mbd in 2028

May 27th ~ (rev 2009/6/10) Based on the Avg of the 16 Outlooks being tracked, the TrendLines Research target for Peak Oil is 93-mbd in 2028. Post Peak, the Avg indicates a very manageable 0.7% Decline Rate 'til 2050. The AVG URR is 4.5-Tb. Flow will not drop below this year's pace 'til 2046, and 50% of its URR will have been consumed by 2040.

This May revision updates outlooks by EIA, my own Freddy Hutter Peak Scenario 2200 & Nansen Saleri. It upgrades the Rembrandt Koppelaar Outlook from Tier-2, but in turn, the Scenario by Pierre-René Bauquis has been downgraded to Tier-2 status.

A new Annual Production Record of 85.46-mbd was set in 2008. With 9 of the G-20 Nations in Recession, 2009 year-to-date extraction is running at a reduced 83.4-mbd pace thru April 30th. That's 3.3-mbd below the monthly record of 86.7-mbd set in July 2008. See the Monthly Report for higher resolution charts and our analysis of Crude & Gasoline Prices.

EIA released its IEO-2009 today, raising most mileposts by 1-mbd from December's AEO-2009. The new targets are a reduction of 6-mbd from IEO-2008. Its Peak of 108-mbd raises this hybrid scenario to the 3rd most optimistic.

Our favourite member of the 16-model Depletion study is of course my Peak Scenario 2200. Having undergone a major methodology makeover this past month, its May update has a Peak Oil target of 112-mbd in 2040. Post-peak Decline has been increased to 2.3%. All Liquids flow will not fall below this year's pace 'til 2052 ... a year that coincidentally has the distinction of All Liquids crossing the midpoint of its 5.51-Tb URR.

The most dramatic change in PS-2200 is an increase in our URR Estimate of 900-Gb, reflecting substantially higher CTL & GTL and lower Kerogen. After 2245, renewable BTL will be the only source of Liquids.

This Scenario determines that the most important factor affecting Peak Oil is the annual balancing between added new Capacity and production loss via Underlying Decline. The Peak Scenario 2200 May update concludes that Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO) has averaged 2.9% since 1970, featuring cyclical surges correlating with maximum depletion within several petroleum provinces. The highest rate of 5.3% occurred in 1984. UDRO is 3.7% today, and appears to be headed to a 3.8% crest in 2011. It estimates that 82-Gb of Capacity has been added since 1970 to address Underlying Decline Observed, and a further 137-Gb will be required for that purpose over the next 245 years.

Likely based on the collapse of crude price and the relative effect on Resource economics, Nansen Saleri was the first practitioner to reduce URR Estimate: by almost 1.1-Tb to 5-Tb.

We are pleased to reinstate the Rembrandt Koppelaar Outlook. It was downgraded in June 2008 due to its overly aggressive post-Peak Decline Rate causing a major production profile "dogleg". Peak Rate is reduced from 92.5-mbd to 88. Proposing several scenarios, we have chose to feature his Rapid Conventional Decline (4.5%) with Accelerated Nonconventional Growth or RD/AG scenario. This choice postpones his new PEAK to 92-mbd Peak in 2015 (from 89.5-mbd in 2010).

By now, regular TrendLiners are well familiar with my purge of over-exuberant Outlooks to preserve and enhance the integrity of our multi-model average as an indicator of PEAK OIL. I had become increasingly impatient with optimistic projections that flaunt the very real mileposts available to us via MegaProjects analysis. Victims of flawed due diligence have included CERA (since reinstated), IHS, Ray Leonard, PFC Energy, Michael Smith & Wood MacKenzie.

With regrets, the Pierre-René Bauquis Scenario is this month's similar victim. Its flow rate in 2013 is 93-mbd, whereas our disqualification threshold at that milepost is a generous 92.5-mbd. It should be noted that MegaProject analysis indicates that flow will most probably be only 86-mbd with application of a 2.8% Underlying Decline Rate Observed. So in effect, Bauquis's forecast is an unconscionable 7-mbd over a target that is only four years away. I look forward to more prudent numbers in Pierre-René's next update ... 'til then, the Outlook is downgraded and viewable in the Tier-2 chart below.

Worst Case Scenario (WCS)

This hypothetical projection was introduced to put in perspective the ludicrous & persistent "running out of oil" comments by the lunatic fringe! Using the lowest recognized estimate of All Liquids URR (2024-Gb by EWG/LBST 2008), and assuming 2008 (85.5-mbd) as Peak Year, it depicts the Avg Decline Rate of 4.5% required mathematically to exhaust its URR. The significance is that half of this year's volume will still be available in 2035 and flow won't dip below 10-mbd until 2053 AD. At worse, All Liquids exhausts in 2082. A decline rate higher than 4.5% "strands URR" ... and that phrase is an oxymoron. Ignore all pundits that suggest a Post-Peak Avg Decline Rate of over 4.5% in their musings. And please read their TEOTWAWKI forecasts with these hard numbers in mind...

(May update cont'd above... )

Future Extraction Rates (mbd)

2007: 84.4-mbd
2008: 85.5
2009: 83.4 (year-to-date)
2028: 93 (Peak Year & Peak Rate)
2040: Extraction 50% of URR
2046: 83 (first year with flow less than today)
2050: 79
2059: 71 (fifty yrs from today)
2075: 57
2100: 38
2109: 33 (one hundred yrs from today)
2200: 9
2300: 3 (renewable BTL only)

(as indicated by the TrendLines 16-model AVG)

Peak Rate

After all the revisions and deletions over the last month, the net effect on the TrendLines 16-model AVG is that the Peak Rate falls to 93-mbd & Peak Date is advanced to 2028 (from April's 94 in 2029). The back drop is a 2017 to 2034 Plateau (defined as within 2-mbd of Peak Rate). As such, there have been and will continue to be significant date shifts of THE PEAK upon even minimal Peak Rate adjustments.

Forecast Peak Rates range from Sadad al Husseini's 86-mbd (2011) to the EU's WETO-POLES model's 113-mbd (2038). The spread of 27-mbd has diminished from 48 just five years ago. The pessimists have been increasing their forecasts an Avg 1.2-mbd/yr, while the optimists have been dropping by 3.3-mbd/yr. "At this rate", they should both agree to a Peak of 93-mbd in 2016 ... as opposed to the Avg: 93 in 2029. Monitoring of the merging will continue!!

We've been publishing the Peak Oil Depletions Scenarios since 2004. Our not-so-hidden agenda has been to provide a venue where collaboration and comparisons encourage a merging of the pessimistic/optimistic camps. After screening hundreds of scenario proposals, we are humbled with this project's contribution to the narrowing of the spread by 4.5-mbd/yr. It has been reduced from 48-mbd (Campbell 80 & CERA 128) in 2004 to today's 27-mbd (Husseini 86 & EU-WETO 113).

Estimated Ultimate Recoverable Resource (EUR-URR)

The AVG URR Estimate of the 16 Model practitioners increased significantly with this version to 4.5-Tb (from 4.3). It is impossible to estimate the volume of renewable BTL included in the tally. The lowest is Chris Skrebowski's 2.435-Tb & the highest is EIA's 9.0-Tb URR. In all probability due to the BTL tainting, the group's 4.5-Tb Avg is much higher than the 4.0-Tb Avg derived from our URR Study with its slightly different mix of providers.

Global Past Extraction is deemed to be 1212-Gb (to 2009/4/30)for All Liquids, of which 1066-Gb is attributable to Regular Conventional Crude.

Depletion

A well, field or province depletes from the first day it is drilled. The total crude extracted from a field thus far divided by its original volume is its status of Depletion. The 1,212-Gb of consumed petroleum divided by the 4,513-Gb Avg URR reveals global Depletion of 27% (to 2009/4/30).

The global Gross Depletion Rate (30-Gb annually extracted liquids as a percentage of global URR) is 0.7%/yr today. If measured as a percentage of remaining resource (3,301-Gb), the Net Depletion Rate is a higher 0.9%/yr.

Based on the 16-model Avg, the 2028 Peak occurs at 41% Depletion. 50% of the URR Avg will have been consumed by 2040. Cumulative BTL included in past production is 4-Gb.

Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO)

The IEA WEO-2008 calculated that the Natural Underlying Decline Rate is 5% in post-peak Regular Conventional Crude fields and as much as 15% in non-conventional post-peak Deep Sea fields, for a weighted avg of 9%. A Producer's EOR activities can improve extraction results and diminish the loss factor. After EOR activity, IEA calculates the loss to be 6.7% for Conventional & Deep Sea fields.

This net figure, more applicable to Depletion factor studies, is the industry's Underlying Decline Observed (UDO) per time interval, and is expressed in millions of barrels per day (mbd) per annum. More commonly, analysis is conducted in percentage terms per period for Regular Conventional Crude or All Liquids ... the Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO). To maintain a production plateau, Production Capacity must be incrementally increased each year to match UDO loss.

Since November 2007, Peak Scenario 2200 has uniquely provided regular monthly reporting of Global UDO/UDRO status, spotlighting two rather mature provinces: Saudi Arabia & the USA.

The current practitioner estimates of UDRO for All Liquids are:

1.9% - IEA (2008)

2.1% - CERA (2008)

3.7% - Freddy Hutter's Peak Scenario 2200 (May 2009)

4.2% - EIA (2009)

4.2% - Jeff Rubin (2009)

4.7% - Chris Skrebowski (2008)

Post-Peak Decline

Among our Tier-1 practitioners, First Year of Production Decline ranges from Sadad al Husseini & Chris Skrebowski's 2012 to EIA's 2091.

All Liquids comprises 12 unique streams and may very well exhibit this same tendency. The crossover of its 4.5-Tb Avg URR occurs in 2040 AD ... 12 years after GLOBAL PEAK.

As mentioned, the Post-Peak Avg Production Decline Rate measured to 2050 is 0.7%/yr (no change). When averaged from Peak to the 10-mbd exhaustion threshold in 2190, Decline will average 1.4% (no change), ranging from Sadad al Husseini's 1.0% Avg to the EU/WETO's 4.2% Avg.

Peak Oil: 94-mbd in 2029

April 30th ~ (rev 9.0504) Based on the AVG of the 16 Outlooks being tracked, the TrendLines Research target for Peak Oil is 94-mbd in 2029. A backdrop Plateau is evident, running from 2019 to 2034. Post Peak, the TrendLines 16-model AVG indicates a very manageable 0.7% Decline Rate 'til 2050. The AVG URR is 4.6-Tb. Flow will not drop below this year's pace 'til 2048, and 50% of its URR will have been consumed by 2042.

This April revision updates outlooks by CERA, EIA, ExxonMobil, my own Freddy Hutter Peak Scenario 2300 & Jean Laherrère. The Scenario by Royal Dutch Shell has been switched with its Tier-2 counterpart. The PFC Energy model also faces a downgrade to Tier-2. The Saudi Aramco projection had been deleted outright, reducing our Tier-1 tracking to 16 practitioners from 18. Introduced to the Tier-2 presentation today are Outlooks by Robert Hirsch & Jeff Rubin. Colin Campbell's Tier-2 projection has also been updated.

A new Annual Production Record of 85.46-mbd was set in 2008. With 8 of the G-20 Nations in Recession, 2009 year-to-date extraction is running at a reduced 82.6-mbd pace thru March. That's 4.3-mbd below the monthly record of 86.9-mbd set in July 2008. See the Monthly Report for higher resolution charts and our analysis of Crude & Gasoline Prices.

We've been publishing the Peak Oil Depletions Scenarios since 2004. Our not-so-hidden agenda has been to provide a venue where collaboration and comparisons encourage a merging of the pessimistic/optimistic camps. After screening hundreds of scenario proposals, we are humbled by this project's contribution for narrowing the spread from 48-mbd (Campbell 80 & CERA 128) in 2004 to today's 27-mbd (Husseini 86 & EU-WETO 113).

The most incredible paring within the optimistic camp is attributed to CERA. Albeit they were the first Outlook to be downgraded to Tier-2 status, the pencil keeps getting re-sharpened and today's revision sees CERA at 108-mbd, down a full 20-mbd from five years ago. CERA has the second highest of the 16 showcase production profiles. Because their present Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO) of 2.1% is somewhat less than my own calculation of 3.8%, i expect these downward revisions will continue.

No doubt a ramification of the recent collapse in crude price, the EIA has trimmed its estimate of global URR to 9-Tb from 10.3-Tb, meaning the world will run out of oil in 2335 instead of 2400 AD...

The EIA URR is the largest of all models, and its 2090 Peak Date is the latest.

ExxonMobil continues the parade of reduced Peak forecasts by trimming 8-mbd of last year's 116-mbd effort.

Our favourite member of the 16-model Depletion study is of course my Peak Scenario 2300. It's April update has a Peak Oil target of 97-mbd in 2039. 50% consumption of its 4.6-Tb URR occurs three years later in 2042. Post-peak Decline has been reduced to 1.4%. It determines that annual flow will not fall below this year's pace 'til 2049.

The most dramatic change in PS-2300 is a recognition of the USA's desire for energy security and ever rising Demand in Chindia. To that end, the extraction of Kerogen has been dramatically accelerated, to the extent where it will be totally exhausted by 2250.

One of the most important factors affecting Peak Oil is Underlying Decline. The PS-2300 April update determines that the Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO) has averaged 2.8% since 1970, featuring cyclical surges correlating with maximum depletion within several petroleum provinces. The highest rate of 5.3% occurred in 1984. It appears that UDRO is currently cresting once again, this time at a rate of 3.8%.

McPeaksters have been promoting a SCARY Wedge graphic recently. Its variations warn that an overwhelming 2-mbd/yr (44-mbd) of new Capacity is required to maintain a Production plateau 'til 2030. Unfortunately, the revelation in our Underlying Decline Study is that since 1970, Producers commissioned (1.9-mbd/yr) 75-mbd of facilities to address Underlying Decline Observed; and another 38-mbd (1-mbd/yr) to increase Extraction Capacity from 51-mbd to 89-mbd. In short, the Industry has been increasing Capacity at the rate of 2.9-mbd per annum for over four decades. The SCARY Wedge used by PeakOilDotcom, theOildDrum, Jeff Rubin & Matt Simmons is a FRAUD.

Visit our PS-2300 venue for lots more details and charts.

Jean Laherrère has advanced his Peak four years to 2015. Peak Rate is reduced from 92.5-mbd to 88.

By now, regular TrendLiners are well familiar with my purge of over exuberant Outlooks to preserve and enhance the integrity of our multi-model average as an indicator of PEAK OIL. I had become increasingly impatient with optimistic projections that flaunt the very real mileposts available to us via MegaProjects analysis. Victims of flawed due diligence have included CERA (since reinstated), IHS, Ray Leonard, Michael Smith & Wood MacKenzie.

With regrets, the Outlook by Royal Dutch Shell Blueprints Scenario is one of this month's similar victims. Its flow rate in 2013 is 95.6-mbd, whereas our disqualification threshold at that milepost is a generous 93.0-mbd. It should be noted that MegaProject analysis indicates that flow will most probably be only 86-mbd with application of a 3.8% Underlying Decline Rate Observed. So in effect, Shell's forecast is an unconscionable 10-mbd over a target that is only four years away. Fortunately, Shell has alternative Scenarios, and while Blueprint is joining other "Hail Mary" projections in the Tier-2 presentation, we're upgrading their Scramble Scenario that had resided in Tier-2. Scramble's 98.5-mbd Peak in 2020 replaces Blueprint's 101-mbd 2020-2030 plateau.

The 2008 PFC Energy Outlook meets a similar fate. Its flow rate in 2013 is 95.0-mbd, an unconscionable 9-mbd over the probable target. I look forward to more prudent numbers in PFC's next update ... 'til then, the Outlook is downgraded and viewable in the Tier-2 chart below.

The Saudi Aramco Outlook has had the distinction of having one of the top two Peak Rates for the past 27 months. Unfortunately, details of its production profile have been rather anecdotal, to the degree that even inclusion in Tier-2 is considered unwarranted ... at this time. This projection is being deleted outright.

As was the case with Matt Simmons last year, Outlook musings by Robert Hirsch have become widespread. Hirsch projects that the present All Liquids plateau channel will deteriorate into terminal production decline (4% per annum) in 2012. At this time the projection does not appear to comprise any form of robust modelling and thus shall be limited to Tier-2 status pending its development.

Similar to Simmons & Hirsch, Outlook musings by Jeff Rubin (formerly of CIBC World Markets) have become widespread. Rubin projects that All Liquids production commenced terminal decline in 2009. At this time the projection does not appear to comprise any form of robust modelling and thus shall be limited to Tier-2 status pending its development.

(April update cont'd above... )

I am pleased to report that Colin Campbell of ASPO-IE has satisfactorily addressed the "dogleg" that i was concerned with back in our November 2008 update and in part caused the downgrade of his Outlook to Tier-2 in March.

Unfortunately, his recent update continues to project terminal decline after 2008 by failing to properly recognize NGL production. As discussed in March, i find it disturbing that Campbell is attempting to substantiate his call of a 2008 Peak by a recent revision of his past and future production data for NGLs. On Feb 3 2009, Colin made an outrageous claim that the NGL global tally has fallen from 8 to only 5-mbd. He now uses this 5-mbd figure in his 2007 thru 2030 projection tables. As was the case with the CERA downgrade in Feb/2008, i sincerely hope that Mr Campbell undergoes a similar epiphany and provides better efforts in the very near future.

Future Extraction Rates (mbd)

2007: 84.4-mbd
2008: 85.5
2009: 82.6 (year-to-date)
2029: 94 (Peak Year & Peak Rate)
2042: Extraction 50% of URR
2048: 83 (first year with flow less than today)
2050: 81
2059: 73 (fifty yrs from today)
2075: 59
2100: 39
2109: 35 (one hundred yrs from today)
2200: 11
2300: 3 (BTL & Kerogen)

(as indicated by the TrendLines 16-model AVG)

Worst Case Scenario (WCS)

This hypothetical projection was introduced to put in perspective the ludicrous & persistent "running out of oil" comments by the lunatic fringe! Using the lowest recognized estimate of All Liquids URR (2025-Gb by EWG/LBST 2008), and assuming 2008 (85.5-mbd) as Peak Year, it depicts the Avg Decline Rate of 4.5% required mathematically to exhaust its URR. The significance is that half of this year's volume will still be available in 2035 and flow won't dip below 10-mbd until 2053 AD. At worse, All Liquids exhausts in 2082. A decline rate higher than 4.5% "strands URR" ... and that phrase is an oxymoron. Ignore all pundits that suggest a Post-Peak Avg Decline Rate of over 4.5% in their musings. And please read their TEOTWAWKI forecasts with these hard numbers in mind...

Highlights

After all the revisions and deletions over the last month, the net effect on the TrendLines 16-model AVG is that the Peak Rate falls to 94-mbd & Peak Date is advanced to 2029 (from March's 97 in 2030). The back drop is a 2019 to 2034 Plateau (defined as within 2-mbd of Peak Rate). As such, there have been and will continue to be significant date shifts of THE PEAK upon even minimal Peak Rate adjustments.

The Post-Peak Avg Production Decline Rate measured to 2050 is 0.7%/yr (down slightly). When averaged from Peak to the 10-mbd exhaustion threshold in 2206, Decline will average 1.3% (no change), ranging from Sadad al Husseini's 1.0% Avg to the EU/WETO's 4.2% Avg.

Forecast Peak Rates range from Sadad al Husseini's 86-mbd (2011) to the EU's WETO-POLES model's 113-mbd (2038). The spread of 27-mbd has diminished from 48 just five years ago.

First Year of Production Decline ranges from Sadad al Husseini & Chris Skrebowski's 2012 to EIA's 2091.

The AVG URR Estimate of the 16 Model practitioners decreased significantly with this version to 4.3-Tb (from 4.7). The lowest is Chris Skrebowski's 2.435-Tb & the highest is EIA's 9.0-Tb URR. The group's 4.3-Tb Avg is a tad higher than the 4.0-Tb Avg derived from our URR Study with its slightly different mix of providers.

Global Past Extraction is deemed to be 1212-Gb (to 2009/4/30).

Depletion

A well, field or province depletes from the first day it is drilled. The total crude extracted from a field thus far divided by its original volume is its status of Depletion. Excluding the 3-Gb of BTL production, the 1209-Gb of consumed petroleum divided by the 4626-Gb URR reveals global Depletion of 26%.

The global Gross Depletion Rate (30-Gb annually extracted liquids as a percentage of global URR) is 0.6%/yr today. If measured as a percentage of remaining resource (3417-Gb), the Net Depletion Rate is a higher 0.9%/yr.

Post-Peak Decline Rate

Empirical examples have been provided by observing Regular Conventional Crude (RCC). After a GLOBAL PEAK in 2005, RCC passed the midpoint of its 1985-Gb URR in March 2006. The USA passed its 50% URR midpoint in 1966, only four years prior to the USA RCC PEAK. Similarly, Saudi Arabia will undergo a PEAK of its Maximum Sustainable Capacity (MSC) in Autumn 2009, just seven years prior to the crossing of its 50% URR midpoint in 2016.

All Liquids comprises 12 unique streams and may very well exhibit this same tendency. The crossover of its 4.3-Tb URR occurs in 2042 AD ... 13 years after GLOBAL PEAK.

Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO)

Not so obvious is a form of decline that occurs prior to Peak. In a typical profile, annual production builds over time, attains a peak, maintains a plateau, then declines. Because fields and petroleum provinces are developed over years or decades, some of the wells of a field, or fields within a province, or ultimately provinces within global production ... can be in decline or retired while others are still in growth stage or plateau. This loss factor is the field/province/world's Natural Underlying Decline.

The IEA calculates that the Natural Underlying Decline Rate is 5% in post-peak Regular Conventional Crude fields and as much as 15% in non-conventional post-peak Deep Sea fields, for a weighted avg of 9%. A Producer's EOR activities can improve extraction results and diminish the loss factor. After EOR activity, IEA calculates global UDRO to be 6.7% for Conventional & Deep Sea fields representing 84% of global production.

This net figure, more applicable to Depletion studies, is known as Underlying Decline Observed (UDO) per time interval, and is expressed in millions of barrels per day (mbd) per annum. More commonly, analysis is conducted in percentage terms per period for RCC or All Liquids ... the Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO). To maintain a production plateau, Production Capacity must be incrementally increased each year to match UDO loss.

Within a typical petroleum province, roughly a third of fields & wells are relatively recent and are annually ramping up their production rate. Another third are in plateau. And the balance are the mature and near-retired wells & fields where significant depletion is reflected by production decline within.

Since November 2007, Peak Scenario 2300 has uniquely provided regular monthly reporting of Global UDO/UDRO status, spotlighting two rather mature provinces: Saudi Arabia & the USA.

The current estimates of UDRO for All Liquids are:

1.9% - IEA (2008)

2.1% - CERA (2008)

3.7% - Freddy Hutter's Peak Scenario 2300 (April 2009)

4.2% - EIA (2009)

4.2% - Jeff Rubin (2009)

4.7% - Chris Skrebowski (2008)

Peak Oil: 97-mbd in 2030

March 17 2009 ~ Based on the AVG of the 18 Outlooks being tracked, the TrendLines Research target for Peak Oil is 97-mbd in 2030. A backdrop Plateau is evident, running from 2021 to 2035. Post Peak, the TrendLines 18-model AVG exhibits a very manageable 0.8% Decline Rate 'til 2050. The AVG URR is 4.7-Tb. Flow will not drop below this year's pace 'til 2050, and 50% of its URR will have been consumed by 2039.

The March revision introduces a scenario by Nansen Saleri; updates outlooks by CERA, EIA, Total, my own Freddy Hutter Peak Scenario 2300; downgrades the Colin Campbell projection to the Tier-2 presentation; & introduces the Duncan-Youngquist forecast to our Invalidated Archive presentation. A new Long Term Prediction Scoreboard is also introduced today. Congrat's to Jean Laherrère on his 2008 prediction back in '97!! He takes the "Best Forecaster" title away from Michael Lynch.

A new Annual Production Record of 85.46-mbd was set in 2008. With 7 of the G-20 Nations in Recession, 2009 year-to-date extraction is running at a 82.7-mbd pace thru February, 4.2-mbd below the monthly record of 86.9-mbd set in July 2008. See the Monthly Report for higher resolution charts and our analysis of Crude & Gasoline Prices.

We've been publishing the Peak Oil Depletions Scenarios since 2004. Our not-so-hidden agenda has been to provide a venue where collaboration and comparisons would yield a merging of the pessimistic/optimistic camps. The highest Peak Rates in our main presentation Outlooks since Oct/2005 have been the studies from CERA. That era ends today with an 8-mbd slashing from their 122-mbd 2035 Supply projection. They're still in the top 3! The reduction reflects our opinion (below) that CERA's 2008 forecast for All Liquids Underlying Decline Observed of 2.5% for the next ten years was in fact a slight underestimation.

At the other end of the scale is Colin Campbell of ASPO-IE. His Outlook was one of the 6 virgin Scenarios in our première chart in 2004. In 1989, Colin declared that All Liquids would never exceed that year's 66-mbd flow. This historic projection has been added today to the Archive presentation below. In the following 20 years, Colin has been declaring "Peak was last year", immanent, or no further than 10 years away. Nobody has provided the Peak Oil fraternity with more detailed data than this gentleman hailing from Ireland. Nobody Nowhere has been more appreciative of his monthly figures than me.

Having said that, i warned in our November update that Colin's Outlook was in jeopardy of being downgraded to Tier-2 status due to a developing "dogleg" in our reconciles of his production profile. This situation has only got worse in the last few days, with his March update inferring that production decline will abruptly change in 2050 from 3.3% to a 1.6% rate. Most modellers agree that Underlying Decline increases with the passage of time. In short, Campbell is using an overly harsh Decline Rate early in the Century to justify his pessimism; but necessary exhaustion of his URR exposes this methodology error. Similar failures in methodology and the subsequent "doglegs" appear in the Tier-2 & Archive presentations below. By relegating the current Campbell Outlook to Tier-2 today, this inferior effort joins those of Bakhtiari, EWG, Koppelaar & Robelius.

More disturbing is Campbell's attempt to substantiate his call of a 2008 Peak by a recent amending his production data for NGLs. On Feb 3 2009, Colin made an outrageous claim that the NGL tally has fallen from 8 to only 5-mbd and he now uses this figure in his 2007 to 2030 projections. As was the case with the CERA downgrade in Feb/2008, i sincerely hope that Mr Campbell undergoes a similar epiphany and provides better efforts in the very near future.

Dedicated TrendLiners will be familiar with my practice of using the more conservative version in our Presentation when a practitioner provides two or more scenarios. The "Hail Mary" version is posted in our Tier-2 presentation. This is an effort to control the integrity of the main presentation by using the most realistic forecasts. In EIA's case, we have chosen to feature their High Price Case rather than the Reference Case since Sept/2005. But times are a changin' and since the Christmas 2008 bottoming of Crude Prices ($31/barrel), we seem to be in a new pricing regime. Absent of geopolitical forcings and fear premiums, USA Contract Crude has attained equilibrium in the $40/barrel vicinity ... confirming long time positions by myself, CERA's Daniel Yergin & some oilco CEOs.

My 5-year target for Crude is only $75/barrel. Thus in this environment, it seems appropriate to upgrade (temporarily?) the EIA Reference Case from its Tier-2 status today. This measure moves their 2090 (Glen Sweetnam hybrid) Peak Rate to 107-mbd from 101 within the High Price Case.

We are pleased to introduce an Outlook by Nansen Saleri, presently consulting from Houston Texas. The former Saudi Aramco executive foresees a 100-mbd Peak in 2056, founded on a URR platform of 6.1-Tb.

Total has revised its call for 103-mbd Peak in 2020 with a 100-mbd plateau spanning 2020-2030.

Having screened over a hundred Peak Oil models this decade, i had come to the conclusion during my participation in the 2007 NPC Global Oil & Gas Study that the Hubbert Curve was dead. There is very convincing data that absent of geo-political influence, Regular Conventional Crude (RCC) mimics its bell curve production profile in most cases.

But when we looked deeper at inferior flows from the non-conventionals, it seemed that albeit new URR is coming on stream at the rate of 130-Gb per annum, this added resource was most likely to diminish the Production Decline Rate rather than increase the All Liquids Peak Rate.

However, as we've weeded out inferior Outlooks from the feature presentation over the last 18 months, a surprising revelation has been emerging...

As stated, RCC has shown a strong correlation with the Hubbert Curve. The USA peaked in 1970 after crossing its URR midpoint in 1966. Global Production peaked in 2005 while passing its URR midpoint in July of that year. Last month we determined that Saudi Arabia will achieve its Peak of Maximum Sustainable Capacity (MSC) in 2009, having extracted 50% of its URR in Spring 2007.

Turning the discussion to All Liquids, my own research of Oil Depletion via the Peak Scenario 2200 has been dominated by both the study of Underlying Decline and analysis of the unique production profiles of All Liquids' 7 components. This has led to the recent observation that my 2030 Peak Rate is only 10 years from the crossing of its own midpoint in 2040.

Like others, i had been swayed towards the adoption of mega URR estimates due to unsustainable higher Crude Prices. Indeed my première model unveiled in 2007 featured a 5.9-Tb URR. After stripping Biofuels, a huge chunk of Kerogen, and substantial RCC, my URR estimate today is a much trimmer 4.4-Tb.

Now today, i see that the 18-model Avg indicates that 50% of the 4.7-Tb URR will have been extracted in 2039. A mere 9 years separation. Hmmm ... is Hubbert reborn?

Detailed changes to my own Scenario-2200 can be viewed at its own venue. In summary, the March Update reflects a finding that Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO) has averaged 2.8% and features cyclical surges correlating with maximum depletion within each of the petroleum provinces. This historic calculation compares with All Liquids UDRO forecasts in 2008 of 2.5% over the next ten years by CERA & IEA's 2.0% over the next 23 years. Global UDRO appears to be again cresting at 3.8% in 2009, coinciding with the Saudi MSC Peak. Our new chart indicates that the record high for UDRO was 5.3% in 1984.

McPeaksters have been promoting their SCARY Wedge recently. Adopted from IEA, it warns that 2-mbd/yr (45-mbd) of new Capacity is required to maintain a Production plateau 'til 2030. Well, the revelation in our Underlying Decline Study is that since 1970, Producers commissioned (1.9-mbd/yr) 75-mbd of facilities to address Underlying Decline Observed; and another 40-mbd (2-mbd/yr) to increase Production Capacity from 51-mbd to 91-mbd over those four decades. The SCARY Wedge used by PeakOilDotcom, theOildDrum & Matt Simmons is a FRAUD.

My own Peak Oil target is 94-mbd in 2030. Post-peak Decline has been raised to 1.9%. Annual flow will not fall below this year's pace 'til 2040.

Albeit petroleum based liquids will exhaust by 2175, Kerogen & BTL will source a 13-mbd tail for many Centuries. Click the Scenario-2300 link for lots more details and charts.

By now, regular TrendLiners are well familiar with my purge of over exuberant Outlooks to preserve and enhance the integrity of our 18-model average as an indicator of PEAK OIL. I am becoming increasingly impatient with optimistic projections that flaunt the mileposts available to us via MegaProject analysis. Victims of flawed due diligence have included CERA (since reinstated), IHS, Michael Smith & Wood MacKenzie.

With regrets, the Outlook by Ray Leonard (Kuwait Energy) is this month's similar victim. Its flow rate in 2013 is 97.5-mbd, whereas our disqualification threshold at that milepost is a generous 93.5-mbd. It should be noted that MegaProject analysis indicates that flow will most probably be only 87-mbd with application of a 3.7% Underlying Decline Rate Observed. So in effect, Mr Leonard's forecast is an unconscionable 11-mbd over a target that is only four years away. I look forward to more prudent numbers in Ray's next update ... 'til then, the Outlook is downgraded and viewable in the Tier-2 chart below.

The irony of this particular demotion is that Ray Leonard attended the Hedberg Conference in Nov 2006 and presented this Outlook at ASPO-Cork2007 as his interpretation of the work accomplished there. It was a "consensus" document proposing a 97.5-mbd Peak Plateau 2010-2020 with a 4.5-Tb URR & 1.7% Decline Rate.

We're pleased today to add two historically significant Outlooks to are Archive presentation below. We already mentioned the 1989 virgin Outlook by Colin Campbell (ASPO founder) ... it predicted that the 66-mbd All Liquids flow rate would "never be surpassed". On its 20th Anniversary and after seeing All Liquids set a record of 87-mbd, we see that some things never change.

The next introduction from our library is a 1998 collaboration by practitioners Richard Duncan & Walter Youngquist. Finally invalidated by the recent 85-mbd 2008 annual record, their 88-mbd Peak in 2006 was built on a 2.0-Tb URR.

Its 10-year hither accuracy for 2008 flow follows tad superior efforts by Jean Laherrère (1997), IEA (1996), Michael Lynch (1996) & EIA (1997). Read further to see our new Long Term Prediction Scoreboard

(March update cont'd above... )

Future Extraction Rates (mbd)

2007: 84.4-mbd
2008: 85.5
2009: 82.7 (year-to-date)
2030: 97 (Peak Year & Peak Rate)
2039: Extracted 50% of URR
2050: 83 (first year with flow less than today)
2050: 83
2059: 75 (fifty yrs from today)
2075: 60
2100: 40
2109: 35 (one hundred yrs from today)
2200: 10
2300: 4
2400: 2
2500: 2
2600: 2 (BTL & Kerogen)

(as indicated by the TrendLines 18-model AVG)

Worst Case Scenario (WCS)

This hypothetical projection was introduced to put in perspective the ludicrous & persistent "running out of oil" comments by the lunatic fringe! Using the lowest recognized estimate of All Liquids URR (2024-Gb by EWG/LBST 2008), and assuming 2008 (85-mbd) as Peak Year, it depicts the Avg Decline Rate of 4.2% required mathematically to exhaust its URR. The significance is that half of this year's volume will still be available in 2035 and flow won't dip below 10-mbd until 2053 AD. At worse, All Liquids exhausts in 2082. A decline rate higher than 4.5% "strands URR" ... and that phrase is an oxymoron. Ignore all pundits that suggest an Post-Peak Avg Decline Rate rate of over 4.5% in their musings. And please read their TEOTWAWKI forecasts with these numbers in mind...

Highlights

After all the revisions and deletions over the last month, the net effect on the TrendLines 18-model AVG is that the Peak Rate rises to 97-mbd & Peak Date is postponed to 2030 (from February's 95 in 2024). The back drop is a 2021 to 2035 Plateau (defined as within 2-mbd of Peak Rate). As such, there have been and will continue to be significant date shifts of THE PEAK upon even minimal Peak Rate or Date adjustments.

The Post-Peak Avg Production Decline Rate measured to 2050 is 0.8%/yr (up slightly). When averaged from Peak to the 10-mbd exhaustion threshold in 2200, Decline will be 1.3% (no change), ranging from Sadad al Husseini's 1.0% Avg to the EU/WETO's 4.2% Avg.

Forecast Peak Rates range from Sadad al Husseini's 86-mbd (2011) to Saudi Aramco's 116 (2030). The spread of 29-mbd has diminished from 40 just five years ago.

First Year of Production Decline ranges from Sadad al Husseini & Chris Skrebowski's 2012 to EIA's 2091.

The AVG URR Estimate of the 18 Model practitioners increased slightly with this version to 4.7-Tb. The lowest is Chris Skrebowski's 2435-Gb & the highest is EIA's 10.3-Tb URR. The group's 4.7-Tb Avg is substantially higher than the 4.0-Tb Avg derived from our URR Study with its slightly different mix of providers.

Global Past Extraction is deemed to be 1203-Gb (to 2009/2/28).

Depletion

A well, field or province depletes from the first day it is drilled. The total crude extracted from a field thus far divided by its original volume is its status of Depletion. Excluding the 3-Gb of BTL Worldwide, the 1200-Gb of consumed petroleum divided by the 4660-Gb URR reveals global Depletion of 26%.

The global Gross Depletion Rate (30-Gb annually extracted liquids as a percentage of global URR) is 0.6%/yr today. If measured as a percentage of remaining resource (3460-Gb), the Net Depletion Rate is a higher 0.9%/yr.

Post-Peak Decline Rate

The absolute volume of decreased annual production post-peak in a well, field or petroleum province is its Decline; often quoted in percentage terms as a Decline Rate. Above, it is seen that the TrendLines 18-model Avg declines at 0.8% (to 2050) and the hypothetical Worst Case Scenario has a more aggressive 4.2%. By Hubbert Curve theory, in general terms a Regular Conventional Crude well/field/province commences decline at the point it reaches 50% Depletion. The prime example is Regular Conventional Crude (RCC). It commenced terminal decline in 2005 and passed the midpoint of its 1956-Gb URR in July 2005. Saudi Arabia crossed its 212-Gb RCC URR midpoint in Spring 2007, and will reach its Peak of Maximum Sustainable Capacity (MSC) in Autumn 2009. All Liquids comprises 12 unique streams and may very well exhibit this same tendency. The crossover of its 4.7-Tb URR occurs in 2039 AD.

Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO)

A Producer's EOR activities can improve extraction results and diminish loss. This net figure, more applicable to our studies, is known as Underlying Decline Observed (UDO) per period and is expressed in millions of barrels per day (mbd) per annum. More commonly, analysis is referred in percentage terms per period for RCC or All Liquids ... the Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO). Each year, Production Capacity must be incrementally increased to match any UDO loss to maintain a plateau.

Within a typical petroleum province, roughly a third of fields & wells are relatively recent and are annually ramping up their production rate. Another third are in plateau. And there are the mature and near-retired wells & fields where significant depletion is reflected by production decline within.

Since November 2007, our Peak Scenario 2200 has uniquely provided regular monthly reporting of global UDO/UDRO status, with particular focus on the two rather mature provinces: Saudi Arabia & the USA.

Global UDO/UDRO became noticeable after 1970. As revealed in première long term UDRO tracking chart above, this factor is cyclical in nature and has been in a secular uptrend since 1997. The crests appear to reflect the major province Peaks & their respective aggressive depletions: the Persian basin in 1977, USA All Liquids in 1983, Russia in 1993, the North Sea in 2001 & the current Saudi Arabia episode. A sixth cycle top is expected in 2018 upon maximum extraction of Deep Sea & Polar ventures.

Over the last 40 years, UDRO has averaged 2.8%. This necessitated 115-mbd of new facilities: 75 to address UDO & 40-mbd to raise Extraction Capacity from 51 in 1969 to 91-mbd today. This long term rate compares with calculations in 2008 for All Liquids UDRO of 2.5% by CERA & 2.0% by IEA. CERA has determined that flow from currently in place Capacity will deteriorate by 20-mbd in the next ten years. In its recent WEO-2008, IEA presumes only 45-mbd of new Capacity is required to sustain a plateau 'til 2030. I am confident that their most current forecasts of Peak Oil (CERA's 118-mbd in 2035 & IEA's 108-mbd in 2030) will see further downgrades in future projection updates, as it becomes clear that they have gravely underestimated the UDO loss factor.

The 2025 Outlook in our Peak Scenario 2200 has been including a Worst Case Scenario that assumes no further MegaProject construction other than those announced to 2019 and deterioration of present Capacity using a 3.7% UDRO. With a presumed 55-mbd flow rate in 2025, our "Wedge" naturally seems ominous and overwhelming. In reality, the Wedge started way back in 1970 & has been stalwartly filled in by Producers each year.

Recently, McPeaksters have adopted "the wedge" but with adaption to make it a little more SCARY. Their new & improved SCARY WEDGE uses UDRO of 4.5% to 8% and neglects to mention that Industry has come to the plate to address this phenomenon with stunning results over the last four decades. McPeaksters attempt to fool the public & policy makers by absurdly substituting All Liquids UDRO with Natural Decline Rates for Conventional Oil ... a mere subset. The success of Industry in addressing the SCARY WEDGE is revealed by the fact that to address 2009 needs in 1970, it was necessary to install 115-mbd of new facilities: 75 to address UDO & 40-mbd to raise Extraction Capacity from 51 in 1969 to 91-mbd today. They did it...

In a more recent context, from 1999 to 2008, the Industry commissioned 25-mbd of new flow capacity. During that span, a full 15-mbd/yr was applied against this Underlying Decline challenge; and the remaining 10-mbd serviced new Demand. The red hashed line in the Peak Scenario 2200 charts tracks the real Underlying Decline.

CIBC World Markets' Jeff Rubin, PeakOilDotcom & theOilDrum are the most common perpetrators of the SCARY WEDGE. In practical terms, history shows that the pessimistic projection incrementally rises to meet the growth trend line. McPeaksters have dwelled in the realm of Worst Case Scenario since 1989. But as the years progress, the seemingly overwhelming Scary Wedge has always been filled via build activity by the energy sector.

The Scary Wedge often portrayed by McPeaksters is not a new phenomenon. Its use is a mere ploy akin to tactics used by the lunatic fringe within the Global Warming fraternity. Remember Al Gore's stepladder graphic? Or his compelling conception of Atlantic waters lapping lower stories of Manhattan skyscrapers?

In reality, Producers have stalwartly addressed the challenge of Underlying Decline Observed (UDO) in a significant fashion since 1970. It is a factor that has ranged as high as 5.3% (1984) of All Liquids production, in cycles that seem to reflect the major petroleum province depletions.

Having ranged as high as 5.5% of All Liquids production in 1984, UDRO troughed at 1% in 1997 and began a 240-kbd/yr climb. Projected production & surplus capacity data forecasts a stabilization just above the mean will be underway after a 3.7% crest in 2009. In that event, Producers need bring on no more than 3-mbd of new capacity annually to sustain a plateau 'til 2015.

It is these "subsets" that are oft identified by the lunatic fringe. What they don't mention is that IEA projects that Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO) for all global fields over the next 23 years will average only 2.0% per annum. This summary stat never sees the light of day in any McPeakster discussions at theOilDrum, PeakOildotcom or by Matt Simmons.

Finally, let's give the decline factor some long term context. The USA has a 2.5% UDRO as an 86% Depleted petroleum province. Less mature Saudi Arabia at 53% Depletion, has a 5.5% UDRO in 2009. Both are reasonably good proxies as to what will be faced on the global scale by All Liquids in the realm of Underlying Decline. With worldwide Depletion at a mere 26%, it is certain that global UDRO will not exceed 5% until mid-Century on its journey to an ultimate 10% rate in the latter stages of exhaustion.

Feb 16th ~ 2009 set a new EIA Annual Production Record of 85-mbd, Quarterly Record of 86-mbd (Q3) & Monthly Record of 87-mbd (July). 2009 year-to-date is 84-mbd thus far. See the Monthly Report for higher resolution charts and our analysis of Crude & Gasoline Prices.

Based on the AVG of the 19 Outlooks being tracked, we are today lowering & advancing the TrendLines Research target for Peak Oil to 95-mbd in 2024. A backdrop Plateau is evident, running from 2016 to 2034. Post Peak, the TrendLines 19-model AVG exhibits a very manageable 0.7% Decline Rate 'til 2050. The AVG URR is 4.6-Tb.

This month's revision features an Update of my own Freddy Hutter Scenario-2200 & downgrades the Wood Mackenzie Outlook to Tier-2 status.

Detailed changes to my own Scenario-2200 can be viewed at its own venue. In short, the February Update reflects a finding that unrivalled Surplus Capacity in Saudi Arabia is masking its Maximum Sustainable Capacity )MSC) Peak this year ... to be followed by a production decline in 2024. I have a growing suspicion that many of the project cancellations and postponements mask a desire to re-contract at Recession deflated pricing. Expansion of most G-20 nations (incl the USA) in Q3 will see rejuvenation of MegaProjects. Early year-end figures and encouraging prior-year revisions continue to unveil moderate Underlying Decline Rate Observed. At 3.2% in 2009, a mere 2.7-mbd of new capacity is required to maintain an All Liquids plateau. Excellent news when the Industry avg is 3.6-mbd.

Despite this optimism, the IEA's recent WEO-2008 inferred global Underlying Decline Rate Observed of 2.0% is clearly ludicrous and irresponsible. Whereas IEA claims only 45-mbd of new capacity is required to sustain a plateau 'til 2030, S-2200 analysis projects a magnitude of 62-mbd is more probable.

My target for Peak Oil has been reduced to 94-mbd, but Peak Year has been postponed to 2033. The post peak decline rate is a manageable 1.4%/yr. Today's All Liquids flow rate will not be breached on the downside 'til 2045. Albeit petroleum based liquids will exhaust by 2145, Kerogen & BTL will source a 21-mbd tail for many Centuries. Click the Scenario-2200 link for lots more details and charts.

By now, regular TrendLiners are well familiar with my purge of over exuberant Outlooks to preserve and enhance the integrity of our 19-model average as an indicator of PEAK OIL. I am becoming increasingly impatient with optimistic projections that flaunt the mileposts available to us via MegaProject analysis. Victims of flawed due diligence have included CERA (since reinstated), IHS & Michael Smith.

With regrets, the Outlook by Wood Mackenzie of Scotland is this month's similar victim. Its flow rate in 2013 is 99-mbd, whereas our disqualification threshold at that milepost is a generous 94. It should be noted that MegaProject analysis indicates that flow will most probably be only 86-mbd. So in effect, Wood Mackenzie's forecast is an unconscionable 13-mbd over a target that is only four years away. I look forward to more prudent numbers in their next update ... 'til then, the Outlook is downgraded and viewable in the Tier-2 chart below.

Future Extraction Rates (mbd)

2007: 84.4-mbd
2008: 85.5
2009: 83.5 (year-to-date)
2024: 95 (Peak Year & Peak Rate)
2030: 95
2047: 83 (first year with flow less than today)
2050: 80
2059: 71 (fifty yrs from today)
2075: 57
2100: 37
2109: 31 (one hundred yrs from today)
2200: 9
2300: 4
2400: 2
2500: 2
2600: 2 (BTL & Kerogen)

(as indicated by the TrendLines 19-model AVG)

HIGHLIGHTS

After all the revisions and deletions, the net effect on the TrendLines AVG was that the Peak Rate has been reduced to 95-mbd and the Peak Date advanced 2024 (from January's 96 in 2028). The back drop is a 2016 to 2034 Plateau (defined as within 2-mbd of Peak Rate). As such, there have been and will continue to be significant date shifts of The Peak upon even minimal Peak Rate adjustments.

The Post Peak Avg Decline Rate measured to 2050 is 0.7%/yr (down slightly). When averaged from Peak to the 10-mbd threshold in 2190, decline will be 1.3% (down slightly), ranging from Sadad al Husseini's 1.0% Avg to the EU/WETO's 4.2% Avg.

Forecast Peak Rates range from Colin Campbell's 85-mbd (2008) to CERA's 122 (2035).

First Decline Year ranges from Colin Campbell's 2009 to EIA's 2091.

The AVG URR Estimate of the 19 Model practitioners increased slightly with this version to 4.6-Tb. The lowest is Chris Skrebowski's 2435-Gb & the highest is EIA's 10.3-Tb URR. The group's 4.6-Tb Avg is substantially higher than the 4.0-Tb Avg derived from our URR Study with its slightly different mix of providers.

Global Past Extraction is deemed to be 1202-Gb (to 2009/1/31).

(February Update cont'd above... )

Depletion

A well, field or province depletes from the first day it is drilled. The total crude extracted from a field thus far divided by its original volume is its status of Depletion. Excluding the 3-Gb of BTL Worldwide, the 1199-Gb of consumed petroleum divided by the 4600-Gb URR reveals global Depletion of 26%.

The global Gross Depletion Rate (31-Gb annually extracted liquids as a percentage of global URR) is 0.7%/yr today. If measured as a percentage of remaining resource (3407-Gb), the Net Depletion Rate is a higher 0.9%/yr.

Post-Peak Decline Rate

The absolute amount of decreased annual production post-peak in a well, field or petroleum province is its Decline; often quoted in percentage terms as a Decline Rate. Above, it is seen that the TrendLines 19-model Avg declines at 0.7% (to 2050) and the hypothetical Worst Case Scenario has a more aggressive 4.4%. By Hubbert Curve theory, in general terms a Regular Conventional Crude well/field/province commences decline at the point it reaches 50% Depletion. The prime example is Regular Conventional Crude (RCC). It commenced terminal decline in 2005 and passed the midpoint of its 2003-Gb URR in 2006. Saudi Arabia crossed its 212-Gb RCC URR midpoint in 2007, and will reach its Peak of Maximum Sustainable Capacity (MSC) in Autumn 2009. Because All Liquids comprises 12 unique streams, it is falsely assumed that it will exhibit this tendency. The crossover of its 4.6-Tb URR occurs in 2096 AD.

Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO)

Not so obvious is a form of decline that occurs prior to Peak. In a typical profile, annual production rises annually, peaks, attains a plateau, then declines. Because fields and provinces are developed over years or decades, some of the wells of a field, or fields within a province, or ultimately provinces within global production ... can be in decline or are being retired while others are still in growth stage or in plateau. This is the field/province/world's Natural Underlying Decline. A producer's EOR activities can improve extraction results and that net figure is more applicable to our studies. This is known as Underlying Decline Observed (UDO) or Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO). Each year, capacity must be incrementally increased to match any UDO loss to maintain a plateau.

Within a typical petroleum province, roughly a third of fields & wells are relatively recent and are annually ramping up their production rate. Another third are in plateau. And there are the mature and near-retired wells and fields where aggressive depletion is reflected in production decline.

Since November 2007, Scenario-2200 has uniquely provided regular reports on global UDRO status, with particular focus on the two rather mature provinces: Saudi Arabia & the USA. Each month, its methodology reconciles recently commissioned capacity vs operations with EIA production reports.

Global UDO became noticeable after 1999. It rose to the equivalent of 1-mbd of production by 2003 and will attain the 3-mbd magnitude in 2010. UDO is rising by 0.28-mbd /yr and UDRO is 3.2% in 2009.

UDRO is a composite of the 6 flow components that comprise All Liquids. Each has its own distinctive UDRO, and each has unique sub-categories streams. The foundation (or lack thereof) for this Underlying Decline was the inevitable deterioration of Regular Conventional Crude (RCC) provinces. RCC maximum extraction was 69-mbd in 2005. The five non-conventional streams are all in growth mode.

The IEA calculates that the Natural Underlying Decline Rate is 5% in post-peak Regular Conventional Crude fields and as much as 15% in non-conventional post-peak Deep Sea fields, for an average of 9%. After EOR activity, they calculate global UDRO to be 6.7% for Conventional & Deep Sea fields representing 75% of global production. It is these "subsets" that are oft identified by the lunatic fringe. What they don't mention is that IEA projects that Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO) for all global fields over the next 23 years will average only 2.0% per annum. This summary stat never sees the light of day in any McPeakster discussions at theOilDrum, PeakOildotcom or by Matt Simmons.

Having said that, the S-2200 analysis finds the IEA's recent WEO-2008 inferred global Underlying Decline Rate Observed of 2.0% to be ludicrous and irresponsible. Whereas the IEA claims only 45-mbd of new capacity is required to sustain a plateau 'til 2030, S-2200 analysis reveals a magnitude of 62-mbd is more probable. IEA's 108-mbd target for 2030 is therefore grossly overstated.

In the domain of mischaracterizations, it is also clear that the lunatic fringe has misrepresented the issue of decline-necessitated new capacity over the past couple of years. This loss factor is hardly the new phenomenon that is hysterically hyped in their "wedge" graphs. From 1999 to 2008, the Industry commissioned 25-mbd of new flow capacity. During that span, a full 15-mbd/yr was applied against this Underlying Decline challenge; and the remaining 10-mbd serviced new Demand. The red hashed line in the 2025 Outlook chart tracks the real wedge.

Let's give the decline factor some long term context. The USA has a 3.4% UDRO as an 86% Depleted petroleum province. Less mature Saudi Arabia at 53% Depletion, had a 4.5% UDRO in 2008. Both are reasonably good proxies as to what will be faced on the global scale by All Liquids in the realm of Underlying Decline. With worldwide Depletion at a mere 26%, it is certain that global UDRO will not exceed 5% until mid-Century on its journey to an ultimate 10% rate in the latter stages of exhaustion.

Worst Case Scenario (WCS)

This hypothetical projection was introduced to put in perspective the ludicrous & persistent "running out of oil" comments by the lunatic fringe! Using the lowest recognized estimate of All Liquids URR (2024-Gb by EWG/LBST 2008), and assuming 2008 (85-mbd) as Peak Year, it depicts the Avg Decline Rate of 4.4% required mathematically to exhaust its URR. The significance is that half of this year's volume will still be available in 2035 and flow won't dip below 10-mbd until 2056 AD. At worse, All Liquids exhausts in 2085. A decline rate higher than 4.5% "strands URR" ... and that phrase is an oxymoron. Ignore all pundits that suggest an Avg Decline Rate rate of over 4.5% in their musings. And please read their TEOTWAWKI forecasts with these numbers in mind...

Methodology revisions

e) If an Outlook does not fully address Post-Peak Decline, a progressive decline rate is applied that exhausts its designated URR; stabilizing at 10% prior to exhaustion

b) Full exhaustion is currently illustrated, rather than the previous exit at the 10-mbd threshold

c) Outlooks that exhibit major "doglegs" that are not reflective of conventional/non-conventional transitions, but rather are created by our reconciliation with URR process are downgraded to Tier-2 status

d) To improve the integrity, accuracy and due diligence of both the Scenarios illustrated and more importantly their cumulative Average, Outlooks with a flow rate greater than 100-mbd in 2012 were disqualified in February 2008. At that time this production level was 10-mbd above the reality as indicated by Megaproject analysis. This bar continues to be raised each month and the qualifying threshold is today 94-mbd for 2013. This newer rate is still an overly generous 8-mbd above MegaProject indicated levels as the marker itself has also been dropping due to project deferrals.

And please visit our URR Estimates venue for more on this topic. Please email me if u can suggest a worthy Presentation candidate, new Outlooks, questions, comments or permissions. Thanx to all that participate and provide feedback...

Jan 26th 2009 (rev 2009/1/28) ~ 2008 set a new EIA Annual Production Record of 85-mbd, Quarterly Record of 86-mbd (Q3) & Monthly Record of 87-mbd (July). See our Monthly Report for higher resolution charts and analysis of Crude & Gasoline Prices.

Based on the AVG of the 20 Outlooks being tracked, we are today raising and postponing the TrendLines Research target for Peak Oil to 96-mbd in 2028 (from Autumn's 95 in 2023). A backdrop Plateau is evident, running from 2018 to 2033. Post Peak, the TrendLines 20-model AVG exhibits a 0.8% Decline Rate 'til 2050 (up slightly). The AVG URR is revised upwards to 4.5-Tb.

This month's revision features Updates of Outlooks by Colin Campbell, my own Freddy Hutter Scenario-2200 & introduces an Outlook by Peter Wells of the UK. The Michael Smith Outlook has been downgraded to Tier-2 status.

Colin Campbell's Autumn update increases URR to 2500-Gb and retains his position that 2008 will indeed be All Liquids' Peak Year. Déjà vu? Well, the first time he declared that All Liquids had peaked was twenty years ago ... in 1989. Flow was never to exceed that year's 66-mbd pace! His annual proclamations (#20?) are always welcome here, eh ...

Probably the world's most meticulous modellers is the UK's Peter Wells, and we are pleased to introduce his current Outlook to our presentation. It forecasts a 102-mbd Peak in 2020 and is built on a 3050-Gb platform.

Detailed changes to my own Scenario-2200 can be viewed at its own venue. In short, the optimism of the January update reflects my position that the issue of postponed MegaProjects is overblown in face of the prospect world economies (incl USA) rebounding by 2009Q3. More importantly, i have found that the significantly rising Underlying Decline Rate Observed seems to have stabilized and there has been virtually no change thru 2006, 2007 & 2008. The current rate of 3.3% implies that the Industry need only commission a mere 2.8-mbd of new capacity to maintain a plateau.

The new analysis is based on early year-end figures and encouraging prior-year revisions. My target for Peak Oil has been raised to 100-mbd in 2030. The Peak for Regular Conventional Crude has been amended to 69-mbd in 2005.

With the Election of Barack Obama plus a near-60 Majority Democrat Senate, my large target flow for Kerogen (shale) has practically been halved. This means petroleum based liquids will exhaust by 2150. The presentation display is now two centuries rather than the previous three (S-2300) and five (S-2500) and hence the moniker change.

The post peak decline rate is a manageable 1.5%/yr. The record 85-mbd flow of 2008 will not be breached on the down side 'til 2043. Click the Scenario-2200 link for lots more details and charts. Because

TrendLiners may remember back to February 2008 when for methodology reasons i downgraded CERA & IHS to Tier-2 status. Their short term targets were a staggering 10-mbd over what may be considered reality as measured against analysis of the current Megaprojects. CERA was welcomed back in a subsequent downward revision. Well, in the meantime i've been raising the bar, so to speak, by reducing that allowed overstatement cushion by about 500-kbd as each new month goes by.

Regrettably, the UK's Michael Smith Outlook is this month's similar victim. Its 2013 milepost is 101-mbd. Albeit this may seem harsh, it should be noted that the MegaProjects rate for that year has been falling on its own, and stands at a mere 87-mbd today. So in effect, Michael's projection is an unconscionable 14-mbd over a target that is only four years away. I will look forward to a sharpening of his pencil ... 'til then, the Smith Outlook can be viewed in the Tier-2 chart below.

Future Extraction Rates (mbd)

2007: 84.4-mbd
2008: 85.5
2028: 96 (Peak Year & Peak Rate)
2042: 86 (first year with flow less than today)
2044: 84 (same as 2009 but on other side of Peak)
2050: 79
2059: 73 (fifty yrs from today)
2075: 58
2100: 38
2109: 32 (one hundred yrs from today)
2200: 9
2300: 3
2400: 1
2500: 1
2600: 1

(as indicated by the TrendLines 20-model AVG)

HIGHLIGHTS

After all the revisions and deletions, the net effect on the TrendLines AVG was that the Peak Rate has been raised to 95-mbd and the Peak Date postponed to 2030 (from 95 in 2023 in the Autumn update). The back drop is a 2018 to 2033 Plateau (defined as within 2-mbd of Peak Rate). As such, there have been and will continue to be significant date shifts of The Peak upon even minimal Peak Rate adjustments.

The Post Peak Avg Decline Rate measured to 2050 is a tad harsher 0.8%/yr. When averaged from Peak to the 10-mbd threshold in 2190, decline will be 1.4%.

Forecast Peak Rates range from Colin Campbell's 85-mbd (2008) to CERA's 122 (2035).

First Decline Year ranges from Colin Campbell's 2009 to EIA's 2091.

The AVG URR Estimate of the 20 Model practitioners increased slightly with this version to 4.5-Tb. The lowest is Chris Skrebowski's 2435-Gb & the highest is EIA's 10.3-Tb URR. The group's 4.5-Tb Avg is substantially higher than the 4.0-Tb Avg derived from our URR Study with its slightly different mix of providers.

The TrendLines AVG Post Peak Decline Rate is 1.4% in this version and ranges from Sadad al Husseini's 1.0% Avg to the EU/WETO's 4.2% Avg.

Global Past Extraction is deemed to be 1199-Gb (to 2008/12/31)

Depletion

A well, field or province depletes from the first day it is drilled. The total crude extracted from a field thus far divided by its original volume is its status of Depletion. Excluding the 3-Gb of BTL Worldwide, the 1196-Gb of consumed petroleum divided by the 4500-Gb URR reveals global Depletion of 27%.

The global Gross Depletion Rate (31-Gb annually extracted liquids as a percentage of global URR) is 0.7%/yr today. If measured as a percentage of remaining resource (3304-Gb), the Net Depletion Rate is a higher 0.9%/yr.

(January Update cont'd above... )

Post-Peak Decline Rate

The absolute amount of decreased annual production post-peak in a well, field or petroleum province is its Decline; more often quoted as a Decline Rate in percentage terms. Above, it is seen that the TrendLines 20-model Avg declines at 1.4% and the hypothetical Worst Case Scenario has a more aggressive 4.4%. By Hubbert Curve theory, in general terms a Regular Conventional Crude well/field/province commences decline at the point it has reaches 50% Depletion.

Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO)

Not so obvious is a form of decline that occurs prior to Peak. In a typical profile, annual production rises annually, peaks, attains a plateau, then declines. Because fields and provinces are developed over years or decades, some of the wells of a field, or fields within a province, or ultimately provinces within global production ... can be in decline or are being retired while others are still in growth stage or in plateau. This is the field/province/world's Natural Underlying Decline. A producer's EOR activities can improve extraction results and this net figure is more applicable to our studies. This is known as Underlying Decline Observed (UDO) or Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO). Each year, capacity must be incrementally increased to match any UDO loss to maintain a plateau.

Within a typical petroleum province, roughly a third of fields and wells are relatively recent and annually ramping up their production rate. Another third are in plateau. And there are the mature and near-retired wells and fields where aggressive depletion is causing their yearly production to decline.

Since November 2007, the Scenario-2200 has been the only model that regularly reports on global UDRO status, with particular focus on the two most mature provinces: Saudi Arabia & the USA. Each month, its methodology differentiates annually commissioned vs operated capacity and reconciles this with rising/falling annual production reporting from EIA & IEA.

Global UDO attained significant proportions in 1999. It rose to the equivalent of 1-mbd of production by 2002 and was almost 3-mbd in 2006. But in what seems to be a characteristic of mature petroleum provinces, the S-2200 model has determined that UDO has been in a stable 2.8-mbd range (3.3% of All Liquids Supply) thru 2006, 2007 & 2008. Generally, S-2200's 3.3% headline rate is a blend of 2.2% UDRO for OPEC & non-OPEC's 4.1% UDRO.

UDRO is a composite of the 6 flow components that comprise All Liquids. Each has its own distinctive UDRO, and each has unique sub-categories streams. The foundation (or lack thereof) for this Underlying Decline was the inevitable deterioration of Regular Conventional Crude (RCC) provinces. Albeit undergoing undulations this decade, RCC almost certainly passed its maximum extraction @ 69-mbd in 2005. The five non-conventional streams are all in growth mode.

The IEA calculates that the Natural Underlying Decline Rate is 5% in post-peak Regular Conventional Crude fields & as much as 15% in non-conventional post-peak Deep Sea fields, for an average of 9%. After EOR activity, they calculate global UDRO to 6.7% for Conventional & Deep Sea fields representing 75% of global production. It is these subsets that are oft identified by the lunatic fringe. What they don't mention is that IEA projects that Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO) for all global fields over the next 23 years will average only 2.0% per annum. This summary stat won't be highlighted in any McDoomer discussions at theOilDrum, PeakOil.com or by Matt Simmons.

Having said that, the S-2200 analysis finds the IEA's recent WEO-2008 inferred global Underlying Decline Rate Observed of 2.0% to be "ludicrous and irresponsible." Whereas the IEA claims only 45-mbd of new capacity is required to sustain a plateau 'til 2030, the S-2200 reveals a magnitude of 62-mbd is much more probable.

It is clear that the lunatic fringe has misrepresented the issue of decline-necessitated new capacity over the past couple of years. In reality it is hardly a new phenomenon. From 1999 to 2008, the Industry commissioned 25-mbd of new flow capacity. During that span, the Supply rate increased by 10-mbd, meaning a full 15-mbd/yr was applied against this Underlying Decline challenge!

Let us look at the long term. The USA has a 4.2% UDRO as an 86% Depleted petroleum province. Less mature Saudi Arabia at 22% Depletion, has a 4.5% UDRO in 2008. Both are reasonably good proxies as to what will be faced by global scale All Liquids in the realm of Underlying Decline. As worldwide Depletion is presently only 25%, this may be an indication that global UDRO will not exceed 5% until mid-Century. But it must be acknowledged that UDRO will most probably rise to 9% in the latter stages of exhaustion.

Worst Case Scenario (WCS)

This was recently introduced to put in perspective the persistent "running out of oil" comments by the lunatic fringe! Using the lowest recognized estimate of All Liquids URR (2024-Gb by EWG/LBST 2008), and assuming 2008 (85-mbd) as Peak Year, it depicts the Avg Decline Rate of 4.4% required mathematically to exhaust same. The significance is that half of this year's volume will still be available in 2034 and flow won't dip below 10-mbd until 2055. A decline rate higher than 4.5% "strands URR" ... and that phrase is an oxymoron. Ignore all pundits that suggest an Avg Decline Rate rate that is over 4.5%. And please read their TEOTWAWKI forecasts with this in mind...

Methodology revisions

a) The Decline Rate for each Outlook progressively increases with time, stabilizing at 9% just prior to exhaustion

b) Full exhaustion is currently illustrated rather than the previous exit at the 10-mbd threshold

c) Outlooks that exhibit major "doglegs" that are not reflective of conventional/non-conventional transitions, but rather are created by our reconciliation with URR process are relegated to Tier-2

d) To improve the integrity, accuracy and due diligence of both the Scenarios illustrated and their cumulative Average, Outlooks with a flow rate greater than 100-mbd in 2012 were disqualified in February 2008. At the time that production level was 10-mbd above the reality as determined by Megaproject analysis. This bar continues to be raised each month and the qualifying threshold is today 94.5-mbd for 2013. This newer rate is still an unconscionable 7.5-mbd above MegaProject levels as the analysis rate itself has also been dropping due to MegaProject deferrals.

e) If an Outlook does not address Post-Peak Decline, a progressive decline rate is applied that exhausts its designated URR; and ultimately increases to 9%.

Nov 12 2008 (rev 2008/11/23) ~ The year continues to set new Monthly & Quarterly EIA production records. Three monthly records have been set in 2008, the last being 86.9-mbd in July. Year-to-date figure indicate that the Annual Production Record is poised to be shattered as well.

Based on the AVG of these 20 Outlooks, we are today accelerating the TrendLines Research target for Peak Oil to 95-mbd in 2023. A backdrop Plateau is evident, running from 2015 to 2032. The Peak Year has been brought forward two years with this month's version. No change to the Peak Rate. Post Peak, the TrendLines 20-model AVG exhibits a 0.7% Decline Rate 'til 2050. The AVG URR is revised downwards to 4.4-Tb.

The November revision features Updates of Outlooks by EIA, Colin Campbell, my own Freddy Hutter Scenario-2300 & IEA. The Matt Simmons Outlook has been further downgraded, and moves from Tier-2 status to our Invalidated Scenarios presentation.

The Sept 2008 version of the EIA International Energy Outlook (IEO) includes insignificant revisions of both its Reference & High Price Scenarios when compared to the Sweetnam projections within the April AEO. Unfortunately, the IEO ends with a 2030 horizon, as opposed to the full Century view offered by the AEO/Sweetnam study. At 113-mbd & 99-mbd Peak Rates, both are down 4-mbd from last year.

Again this year, we are showcasing the more probable High Price Scenario in our showcase presentation and the Reference in our "Hail Mary" chart.

It has been a tumultuous year for Colin Campbell of ASPO Ireland. Befitting perhaps, since 2008 marks his 20th annual call that Peak Oil is upon us. In 1989, Campbell declared that All Liquids would never pass the 66-mbd flows of that year. This was based on a URR of 1578-Gb. It is ironic that on the 20th Anniversary, flows are 86-mbd. His URR today is 2450-Gb. But i digress...

In January 2008, Campbell started the year with a career high 94-mbd Peak Rate in 2010. By September, he had again declared that Peak Oil was "this year". By viewing the yellow line in the chart, it will be seen that a significant dog-leg is forming after 2030 in his production profile. On the surface, this would indicate that he has imposed too harsh a decline rate for post-peak production ... as evidenced by our reduction in its post-2030 slope in order to exhaust his URR.

Decline Rates increase with time. Unless Campbell is suggesting that the abundance of non-conventional liquids is the foundation for a less aggressive decline in production, it is clear that his latest projections are unwarrantedly pessimistic.

If not corrected in his upcoming revisions, this deficiency would cause the ASPO-IE Outlook to meet the same fate as the Robelius & Koppelaar Outlooks which exhibited the identical error in methodology. As Colin Campbell's contribution was among the first within our virgin presentation in Aug 2004, this would indeed be regrettable.

This month's revision of my own Scenario-2300 reflects the realities of postponed MegaProjects. With our Underlying Decline Rate running at 3.5%, the Industry need only provide 3-mbd of new capacity each year to maintain a plateau. Unless there's a flurry of activity, that is not in the cards for 2012.

Present analysis of projects under way and making an allowance for probable sector growth results in this Outlook: a 2011 PEAK @ 88-mbd, declining to 84-mbd in 2025, and rebounding with a 87-mbd sub-peak in 2029. These episodes will be followed by a terminal 1.1% decline.

The record 86-mbd flow of 2008 will not be breached on the down side 'til 2032. Click the Scenario-2300 link for more details and charts.

This week's IEA's WEO-2008 release was a pleasant surprise for us at TrendLines. Among the original goals of our Peak Oil Depletion Scenarios presentation was to allow a format to compare Outlook models, but also to pressure the pessimist/optimist camps into a merging of projections. Development of our Averaging feature and protecting its integrity saw a purging of the recent 81-mbd & 145-mbd outliers. IEA has another downward revision.

The credit crunch crisis has provided IEA with a fortunate red herring to soften the public and media with a drastic paring down of its Peak Rate. From its lofty 121 to last year's 116 to this year's 106-mbd, the Reference Scenario has made much progress toward reality ... mostly founded on on last year's move to bottom-up flow based methodology.

WEO-2006 introduced an innovative URR matrix that divides total resources into its components and is sensitive to price changes in crude, based on the concept that a higher price makes more resource economic. Its matrix featured a price band of $50 to $70/barrel and corresponded with an indicated URR scaling from 5-Tb to 5.6-Tb. Today's hybrid grid is more accommodating to the recent price roller coaster and sports a $3 to $112/barrel production cost scale with indicated URR scaled Nil to 9-Tb. Using today's contract price of $55/barrel, URR is deemed to be 5.3-Tb.

IEA was one of the premiere agency/oilco modellers to address Peak Oil ... back in 1998. More important, it has been stalwart in its warnings of the ramifications of ever increasing fossil fuel use on the Environment.

This year builds on its projections of carbon & GHG emissions by proposing Scenarios that target certain co2 levels. IEA has engaged in some opportune number crunching that links with the 2007 IPCC studies and recommendations. The IPCC (and NASA) have suggested that the 550 & 450-ppm co2 atmospheric concentrations are indicators of certain tipping points. In that regard, IEA has remanufactured its Alternative Scenario to address production profiles that lend themselves to society achieving holds at significant levels with a 550-Scenario with a corrected 99-mbd Peak Rate and a 450-Scenario that attains its 92-mbd Peak Rate in 2016.

In keeping with our practice of showcasing the most probable Scenario when given a choice, our main presentation replaces IEA's Alternative Scenario with its new Scenario-450. The Reference Scenario at our Tier-2 presentation has been duly updated. This decision is partly based on what is felt to be an unreasonably high estimate for NGL flow (20-mbd) within the Peak Rate (106-mbd).

Another fault is the annual practice of abusing/ignoring Saudi Arabia's 2004 business plan wherein it stated and has annually recommitted to a maximum 10.5-mbd flow rate for crude. Both IEA & EIA habitually overstate their KSA attribution despite harsh chastisement by KSA. Similarly, Canada's bitumen development is overstated.

A final and most major flaw in the Reference Scenario is the drastic reduction in its Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO). They call it the Adjusted Observed Decline Rate. Previous IEA studies have related that national natural decline rates range from 2.5% to 21% with Global UDRO ranging from 3.6% to 4.5%. Today's WEO-2008 is based on a world-wide UDRO of only 2.0% ... an outrageous premise that calls into question its ability to attain its (corrected) 108-mbd All Liquids 2030 target.

As mentioned above, my S-2300 model calculates global UDRO to be 3.5% (3.0-mbd) in 2008 and rising by 0.32-mbd/yr. It was 'til today the least aggressive published UDRO of all models. IMHO, IEA's estimate of 43-mbd for UDRO-related new capacity build over 22 years (2.0-mbd/yr) is grossly understated and together with the proposed 21-mbd (0.9-mbd/yr) Demand-related new capacity, shall not even be adequate to hold a plateau, let alone grow World Supply.

IEA has invested heavily in the study of Underlying Decline over the past two years. Yet in the final analysis, its modelers seem to have ignored their own findings in projecting the 2030 All Liquids target. After determining that post-peak fields representing 70-mbd of production face a dire 6.7% Underlying Decline Rate Observed (UDRO), its inferred 2.0% global UDRO is based on the remaining fields and production (representing 16-mbd) having an incredible 19% growth rate in 2007.

In WEO-2007, IEA was adamant that 2.7-mbd/yr was required to offset Underlying Decline Observed. A year later, this offset is reduced to 2.0-mbd/yr. WEO-2008 is fraught with errors and inconsistencies. The IEA's inferred 2.0% Underlying Decline Rate Observed is ludicrous and irresponsible. It appears that the (corrected) 108-mbd target may have been an internal compromise among the authoring team members. Unfortunately, the statistics within and common yardsticks do not support it.

This audit of IEA's Reference Scenario deems its lofty target improbable based on the premises it is founded on. This may be academic in the sense that prudence towards global climate balance favours the more realistic Scenario-450 target of 92-mbd anyway. Everything considered, it's easy to luv or hate the 2008 Outlook effort.

(November Update cont'd above... )

Matt Simmons. Hmm, when in the Spring he became poster boy for the lunatic fringe, it was decided to post his widely dispersed Outlook for ease of comparison albeit i was somewhat skeptical of its integrity. As he clarified some of the fuzzy details, it became clear that this was a dubious Outlook at best. Its dire predictions did not in the end meet the bare minimum requirement of needing to be on the positive side of the geology limiting Worst Case Scenario. The Simmons Outlook was relegated to our Tier 2 venue post haste.

But it didn't stop there. Seeing that an unknowing Media anxiously swallows up unwarranted fear mongering, Simmons joined Jeff Rubin of CIBC-WM as yet another proponent of the gasoline/crude price bubble. Analysts of this ilk fanned the flames of irrational exuberance in the energy sector. In late June, Simmons was quoted by the Aberdeen Journal: "It is not beyond the pale of imagination to see oil at $300, $400, $500 or even $600 a barrel within a relatively short time, much less than 20 years."

That's all we needed to hear. He is an industry embarrassment. I don't know if he is well intentioned or corrupted by self motivations. Fortunately, this month's IEA/EIA stats can be extrapolated to deem that a new annual production record has been set in 2008. Simmons backward-looking forecast that Peak Oil was 84-mbd in 2007 is therefore invalidated. Colin Campbell's (annual) call that Peak is "this year" makes his effort the closest call should Peak indeed occur in 2008. Hence, it is with sincere glee that today i announce that the 2008 Simmons Outlook is hereby relegated to the Invalidated Scenarios Presentation ... joining the failed efforts of Hubbert, EWG/LBST & Bakhtiari.

After all the revisions and deletions, the net effect on the TrendLines AVG was that the Peak Rate remains 95-mbd but Peak Date is accelerated to 2023 (from 2028 in June update). The back drop is a 2015 to 2032 Plateau (defined as within 2-mbd of Peak Rate). As such, there have been and will continue to be significant date shifts of The Peak upon even minimal Peak Rate adjustments.

The Post Peak Avg Decline Rate measured to 2050 is a softer 0.7%/yr. When averaged from Peak to the 10-mbd exit threshold in 2190, decline will be 1.3%.

Forecast future Peak Rates range from Colin Campbell's 86-mbd (2008) to CERA's 122 (2035).

First Decline Year ranges from Colin Campbell's 2009 to EIA's 2091.

The AVG URR Estimate of the 20 Model practitioners decreases slightly with this version to 4.4-Tb. The lowest is Chris Skrebowski's 2435-Gb & the highest is EIA's 10.3-Tb URR. The group's 4.4-Tb Avg is significantly higher than the 4.0-Tb Avg derived from our URR Study with its slightly different mix of providers.

After the Peak of each scenario, a progressive decline rate is applied that exhausts its designated URR; starts at approx 1% & gradually increases to 9%. The TrendLines AVG Post Peak Decline Rate is 1.4% in this version and ranges from Sadad al Husseini's 1.0% Avg to the EU/WETO's 4.2% Avg.

A well, field or province depletes from the first day it is drilled. The total crude extracted from a field thus far divided by its original volume is its depletion rate. Worldwide, the 1201-Gb of consumed crude divided by the 4023-Gb gives us a global depletion rate of 30%. Annual production rises annually, peaks, attains a plateau, then declines. A region may have rising cumulative production while at the same time some of its wells/fields are in themselves facing declining production.

Natural to the depletion phenomenon is the annual Underlying Decline occurring in maturing fields. This volume must be met or exceeded by new Production Capacity and/or EOR to avoid Net Decline globally or in a petroleum province. The TrendLines S-2300 model tracks this Decline Rate each month. Our methodology differentiates annually commissioned vs operated capacity and reconciles this with rising/falling annual production figures from EIA & IEA.

The Underlying Decline Rate (UDR) has been generally increasing since 1999. TrendLines Research calculates the UDR to be 3.5% (3.0-mbd/yr & rising by 0.32-mbd annually) at the global scale; 2.0% (0.21-mbd/yr) in Saudi Arabia & a stable 4.2% (0.37 mbd/yr) in the USA.

The UDR is a composite of the 7 flow components that comprise All Liquids. Each has its own distinctive UDR, and each has unique sub-categories. Generally, the 3.5% headline rate is a blend of today's OPEC 1.9% UDR & non-OPEC 4.5% UDR.

Within each petroleum province, roughly a third of fields and wells are relatively recent and annually ramping up their production rate. Another third are in plateau. And there are the mature and near-retired wells and fields where aggressive depletion is causing their yearly production to decline.

The IEA calculates that these mature Regular Conventional Crude fields average 9% natural decline per year (from 5% in the Middle East to 15% in North America's offshore). EOR activities dampen the global rate to 6.7% decline; the rate is increasing; and may attain a scale of 8.6% by 2030. Again these are mere subsets, but easily made scary by out-of-context quoting by the lunatic fringe. Please remember ... the Observed Decline Rate is only 3.5% of worldwide production. From 1999 to 2008, the Industry has inaugurated 25-mbd of new capacity. 10-mbd of this is attributed to increased production over those years, and 15-mbd addressed decline challenges.

Saudi Aramco's annual Capacity build is greater than its UDR. KSA's Crude Supply is scheduled to rise from 2007's 8.75-mbd to 10.5 by 2012. Subsequent Net Supply Decline could be imminent thereafter if new capacity announcements are not forthcoming very shortly. Our depiction of that worst case scenario can be seen at our Saudi profile venue.

Global Past Extraction is deemed to be 1201-Gb (to 2008/12/31).

Future Extraction Rates (mbd) indicated by the TrendLines AVG:
2007: 84.4-mbd
2008: 85.6 (year-to-date)
2023: 95 (Peak Year & Peak Rate)
2042: 86 (probable similar Supply Rate as 2008 on other side of Peak)
2044: 84 (same as 2007 but on other side of Peak)
2050: 79
2058: 73 (fifty yrs from today)
2075: 58
2100: 38
2108: 32 (one hundred yrs from today)
2200: 9
2300: 3
2400: 1
2500: 1
2600: 1

The Worst Case Scenario (WCS) was recently introduced to put in perspective the persistent "running out of oil" comments by the lunatic fringe! Using the lowest recognized estimate of URR (2024-Gb by EWG/LBST 2008), and assuming 2008 (86-mbd) as Peak Year, it depicts the Avg Decline Rate of 4.5% required mathematically to exhaust same. The significance is that half of this year's volume will still be available in 2035 and flow won't dip below 10-mbd until 2057. A decline rate higher than 4.5% "strands URR" ... and that phrase is an oxymoron. Ignore any pundits that assume an Avg Decline Rate rate that is over 4.5%. And please read their TEOTWAWKI forecasts with this in mind...

Methodology revisions: a) The Decline Rate for each Outlook progressively increases with time, stabilizing at 9% just prior to exhaustion; b) Full exhaustion is currently illustrated rather than the previous exit at the 10-mbd threshold.

June 18 2008 (rev 2008/6/19) 2008 continues to set new Monthly & Quarterly EIA Production and Demand records. Year-to-date Supply indicates that the Annual Production Record is poised to be shattered as well.

Based on the AVG of these 20 Outlooks and a change of our methodology for handling Post Peak Decline Rates, TrendLines Research has postponed the target for Peak Oil to 95-mbd in 2028 amid an evident backdrop Plateau running from 2017 to 2032. The Peak Year has been postponed nine years with this month's version. The Peak Rate has been increased 4-mbd. Post Peak, the TrendLines 20-model AVG also indicates a 0.8% Decline Rate is evident 'til 2050. The AVG URR rises to 4.5-Tb.

My intimate analysis of Post Peak Decline continues this Spring and has influenced today's presentation. The former long exhaustion tails that reflected the Avg Decline Rate to exhaustion have been replaced by a methodology whereby the Decline Rate for each Outlook progressively increases with time and stabilizes at 8%.

This month's blog features Updates of Outlooks by Colin Campbell, PFC Energy, Royal Dutch Shell, Chris Skrebowski & my own Freddy Hutter Scenario-2300. It also relegates four more projections deemed to be somewhat inferior to the Tier 2 Presentation (below): William Carlson, Rembrandt Koppelaar, Fredrik Robelius & Matt Simmons.

In April, we saw Colin Campbell knock down his Peak Rate from 97-mbd to 91 in 2010. He chops that to (a corrected) 87-mbd this month, and in spite of MegaProjects in play, astonishingly proclaims 2008 as Peak Year. Sort of apropos: this year marks the 20th anniversary of the first year that Campbell stated Peak was upon us ... his call of an All Liquids Peak of 65.8-mbd in 1989!

PFC Energy updates its 2007 Outlook with no change in Peak.

Last year, Royal Dutch Shell laid out two Scenarios for their 2025 Peak: a high case of 123-mbd & low case of 97. This year's Blueprint Scenario leans to the latter with a 2020-2030 plateau of 101-mbd.

Chris Skrebowski bumped up his Peak by 1-mbd.

April saw our Scenario-2300's Peak postponed to from 2011 to 2015. This week, i've moved it way down the road ... to 2029. 95-mbd. Click the link for lots more details. The fascination with MegaProjects vs Underlying Decline continues. Pre-MegaProjects production reveals a 3.8% Underlying Decline Rate. It is this face-off that is right on-the-line that causes projections to be easily swayed from dire Declines to healthy Supply growth. The ultimate course may be a flatline ...

The April version introduced two guest Outlooks. I am too uncomfortable with both to retain them in this main Presentation. Both are included below in Tier 2 today. William Carlson's mathematical effort (logistic analysis) is a technique that is good at finding the Peak, but uses a curve type that is a poor fit for charting the decline path. IMHO, bell curves are primarily a tool for predicting Regular Convention Crude and they will increasingly have difficulty with the inhomogeneous nature of All Liquids. And our primary goal with the TrendLines Scenarios is to forecast and give perspective to the probable production profile that exhausts URR in totality.

A second review of the Matt Simmons Outlook reconfirms my distaste for its credibility and due diligence invested. Recent blowhard comments by Matt of $100 Trillion in capital costs required to maintain crude industry infrastructure by 2015 while at the same IEA projects a $10 Trillion investment for all categories of total Energy to 2050 underscores my sentiment. The Simmons forecast seems to be constructed on a 1589-Gb URR premise. Our Worst Case Scenario (WCS) assumes exhaustion of the lowest practitioner's estimate within our URR Study ... 1996-Gb. That All Liquids could be more dire than the WCS is unfathomable. Enuf said.

cont'd above...

The studies by Rembrandt Koppelaar & Fredrik Robelius were both first efforts. It is felt that lack of experience in reconciling exhaustion of URR causes the major "dog leg" in extensions to their production profiles. The grade slope change is major and altho both practitioners have most probably well researched the Peak aspect of Depletion, subsequent analysis by them will likely correct the "doglegs" by utilizing less aggressive decline rates. Upon reasonable Updates, both Outlooks would be welcomed back to the main Presentation; but to protect the integrity of the Peak/Decline AVG, both Outlooks in their present form are transferred to Tier 2 (below) as well.

After all the revisions and deletions, the net effect on the TrendLines AVG was that the Peak Rate rises to 95-mbd and is postponed to 2028 (from 91 in 2013). The back drop is a 2017 to 2032 Plateau (defined as within 2-mbd of Peak Rate). As such, there have been and will continue to be significant date shifts of The Peak upon even minimal Peak Rate adjustments.

The subsequent Post Peak Decline Rate is reduced to 0.8%/yr to 2050. As measured to the 10-mbd exit threshold, it is an avg of 1.3% (up from 1.2%).

Forecast future Peak Rates range from Sadad Husseini's 86-mbd (2011) to CERA's 122 (2035).

First Decline Year ranges from Colin Campbell's 2009 to EIA's 2206.

The AVG URR Estimate of the 20 Model practitioners increases slightly with this version to 4.5-Tb. The lowest is Chris Skrebowski's 2435-Gb & the highest is EIA's 10.3-Tb URR. The group's 4.5-Tb Avg is a significantly higher than the 4.0-Tb Avg derived from our URR Study with its slightly different mix of providers.

The TrendLines AVG Post Peak Net Decline Rate overall is a higher 1.3% in this version and ranges from Freddy Hutter's 0.8% to the EU/WETO's 3.5%. These averages reflect our new Decline Rate methodology whereby the Rate for each Outlook progressively increases with time and culminates at 8%.

Natural to the depletion phenomenon is the annual Underlying Decline occurring in maturing fields. This volume must be met or exceeded by new Production Capacity and/or EOR to avoid Net Decline globally or in a petroleum province. The Underlying Decline Rate (UDR) generally increases each year. TrendLines Research calculates the UDR to be 3.8% (3.3-mbd/yr & rising by 0.35-mbd annually) at the global scale; 2.5% (0.26-mbd/yr) in Saudi Arabia & a stable 4.2% (0.37 mbd/yr) in the USA.

Global Past Extraction is deemed to be 1186-Gb (to 2008/6/30).

Future Extraction Rates (mbd) indicated by the TrendLines AVG:
2007: 85.6-mbd
2008: 87.1 (year-to-date)
2019: 91 (Peak Year & Peak Rate)
2029: 87 (probable similar Supply Rate as 2008 on other side of Peak)
2031: 86 (same as 2007 but on other side of Peak)
2050: 69
2058: 60 (fifty yrs from today)
2075: 47
2100: 32
2108: 28 (one hundred yrs from today)
2200: 10
2300: 3
2400: 1
2500: >0
2600: >0

The Worst Case Scenario (WCS) was recently introduced to put in perspective the persistent "running out of oil" comments by the lunatic fringe! Using the lowest recognized estimate of URR (1996-Gb by EWG/LBST 2007), it depicts the Avg Decline Rate of 4.5% required to exhaust same. The significance is that half of this year's volume will still be available in 2033 and flow won't dip below 10-mbd until 2066. A rate higher than 4.5% "strands URR" ... and that phrase is an oxymoron. Ignore any pundits that assume an Avg Decline Rate rate that is over 4.5%. And please read their TEOTWAWKI forecasts with this in mind...

April 24 2008 - 2008 continues to set new monthly/quarterly IEA/EIA extraction and demand records. Year-to-date supply is poised to shatter the Annual Production Record as well!

Peak Oil is looming at 91-mbd in 2019 amid an evident backdrop Plateau running from 2010 to 2025. The Peak Year has been postponed six years with this month's version. Post Peak, the TrendLines 24-model AVG also indicates a 1.2% Decline Rate. The AVG URR rises to 4.3-Tb.

This month's blog features the introduction of the 24th scenario to our compilation with the return of CERA's 2008 Outlook (previously relegated to the Hail Mary presentation). Also included are Updates of projections by Colin Campbell, Matt Simmons, EIA & my own Freddy Hutter Scenario-2300.

I'm pleased to bring back the CERA Outlook this month. CERA & IHS were disqualified in February due to the inability of those projections to reasonably mirror the short term targets that are indicated by MegaProjects out to 2010. Albeit our methodology allows some grace, CERA suggested flows that exceeded those mileposts in excess of 10-mbd.

The 2008 CERA outlook by Peter Jackson again increases its Capacity targets thru to 2035, but has met our scrutiny parameters by drastic increases in surplus capacity out to 2017. Looking at net production, the metric that is used in our Scenarios, CERA's Peak Rate is thus reduced to 122-mbd (from 126) in 2035, followed by a 2.2% Avg Decline Rate to exhaustion amid its "undulating plateau". Increasing the surplus capacity factor for 2070 to 15-mbd reconciles their estimate of 3610-Gb past consumption by that date.

In Colin Campbell's second 2008 revision, we see a major reduction of Peak Rate to 91-mbd (from 97 in January).

Clarifications of Matt Simmons's première Outlook (depicted in February) reveal a very different and dire scenario. It had been assumed that its All Liquids 60-mbd target was being compared to those of the majors for 2030. It has come to light that Simmons intended that flow for 2015 in a direct mockery of the liberal CERA projection.

Simmons's projection indicates an available URR of only 1795-Gb and a 4.3% Post Peak Decline Rate. This conflicts with the recognized URR Estimates. The very lowest estimate is 1999-Gb as determined by Germany's Energy Watch Group & Ludwig-Bölkow-Systemtechnik in 2007. As seen in the chart above, a maximum 3.7% Decline Rate would exhaust that higher level of resource. In short, Simmons forecast is worse than the Worst Case Scenario (WCS). In light of this; and because Simmons does not profess to have the credentials to accurately determine URR, Matt Simmons Outlook is included for illustration purposes, but will most probably be relegated to the Tier 2 Presentation in the next version until it is in better compliance with the science.

At this month's EIA Conference, the Agency unveiled a new production profile to 2100. It normally projects out to 2030 only. The notable exception was its initial addressing of Peak Oil in Y2K with its production profile portrayal thru to 2125. That version foresaw a 96-mbd Peak in 2016 with a 3003-Gb URR. The 2008 "reference intermediate scenario" raises Peak to 117-mbd in 2090 amid a 10.3-Tb URR. It is depicted in the Hail Mary Presentation below. Our hallmark Scenarios depicts their alternate "high price scenario" with its softer 98-mbd Peak in 2030.

cont'd above...

Our own Scenario-2300 has been updated. Reduction of our calculated Underlying Decline Rate moves its projection of Peak Oil to 97-mbd in 2015 (from 91 in 2011).

After all additions & revisions this week, the net effect on the TrendLines AVG was that the Peak Rate remains @ 91-mbd and is postponed to 2019 (from 2013). The back drop is a 2010 to 2025 Plateau (defined as within 2-mbd of Peak Rate). As such, there have been and will continue to be significant date shifts of The Peak upon even minimal Peak Rate adjustments.

The subsequent Post Peak Decline Rate is reduced to 1.2% (from 1.5%) as measured to the 10-mbd exhaustion exit threshold.

Forecast future Peak Rates range from the Simmons 86-mbd (2007) to CERA's 122 (2035).

First Decline Year ranges from Matt Simmons's unlikely 2007 to Colin Campbell & Rembrandt Koppelaar both proclaiming 2011 to EIA's 2183.

The AVG URR Estimate of the 24 Model practitioners increases substantially with this version to 4.3-Tb. The lowest is Fredrik Robelius's 2452-GB (actually the 1795-Gb of Matt Simmons) & the highest is EIA's 10.3-Tb URR. The group's 4.3-Tb Avg is a significantly higher than the 4.0-Tb Avg derived from our URR Study with its slightly different mix of providers.

The TrendLines AVG Post Peak Net Decline Rate overall is a lesser 1.2% in this version and ranges from Freddy Hutter's 0.8% to Fredrik Robelius's 4%(aside from the 4.3% of Matt Simmons's).

Natural to the depletion phenomenon is the annual Underlying Decline occurring in maturing fields. This volume must be met or exceeded by new Production Capacity and/or EOR to avoid Net Decline globally or in a petroleum province. The Underlying Decline Rate (UDR) generally increases each year. TrendLines Research calculates the UDR to be 2.9% (2.6-mbd/yr & rising by 0.26-mbd annually) at the global scale; 2.5% (0.26-mbd/yr) in Saudi Arabia & a stable 4.2% (0.37 mbd/yr) in the USA.

Saudi Aramco's annual Capacity build is greater than its UDR.