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Archived Blog of Revisions for TrendLines URR Estimates & Features

All Liquids represents 12 major streams:  Regular Conventional Crude, NGL & Refinery Gain; and the non-conventionals:  GTL (gas-to-liquid), Deep Sea, Arctic, Bitumen, X-Heavy, Synthetics, CTL (coal-to-liquid), Kerogen & BTL (biofuels-to-liquid)

July 30th ~ Linearization analysis is a guiding counterweight to our geology/technology based Estimates of Ultimate Recoverable Resource (URR/EUR).  When compared, All Liquids succumbs to a 3,420-Gb differential, mostly attributed to Bitumen, GTL, CTL & Kerogen not yet reflecting their potential flows.  OTOH, this shortfall is somewhat mitigated by the tainted BTL influence.  Biofuels-to-liquids are not incl in our URR tally, but are indeed reflected in All Liquids production data.

June 29th ~ Linearization analysis is a guiding counterweight to our geology/technology based Estimates of Ultimate Recoverable Resource (URR/EUR).  When compared, All Liquids succumbs to a 1,176-Gb differential, mostly attributed to Bitumen, GTL, CTL & Kerogen not yet reflecting potential flows.  OTOH, this shortfall is somewhat mitigated by the tainted BTL influence.  Biofuels-to-liquids are not incl in our URR tally, but are indeed reflected in All Liquids production data.

It is noteworthy that Regular Conventional Crude's linearization is 155-Gb higher than current Reserve tallies.  This bodes well for future discoveries & reserve growth.  Saudi Arabia's indicated 262-Gb linearization is strikingly less than Saudi Aramco's 900-Gb URR Estimate.  Remarkably, the Deep Sea & Polar linearization is within 25-Gb of estimated ultimate recoverable resource.

May 20th ~ Linearization analysis is a guiding counterweight to our geology/technology based Estimates of Ultimate Recoverable Resource (URR/EUR).  When compared, All Liquids succumbs to a 1,485-Gb differential, mostly attributed to Bitumen, GTL, CTL & Kerogen not yet reflecting potential flows.  OTOH, this shortfall is somewhat mitigated by the tainted BTL influence.  Biofuels-to-liquids are not incl in our URR tally.

Highlights:

a)  TrendLines AVG URR:  4023-Gb (has doubled since 1996)

b)  TrendLines AVG URR less Past Consumption of 1180-Gb (as of 2008/2/29): 2843-Gb of Remaining Reserves & Resource (has doubled since Y2k)

On this last point:  it is noteworthy that while Resources in general have doubled since 1996; and both BP & OGJ report that global Reserves have doubled since 1983, but when OPEC nations report exactly the same 1983 to 2007 statistic, they are considered "liars & bastards". .. hmmm.  (Note to self:  reserve growth only happens in non Mideast nations)

April 24, 2008 - Today's version update of our URR Estimates Chart updates figures from EIA, CERA & our Hutter Scenario-2500.

As described in today's Scenarios Presentation, EIA has just unveiled a production profile thru to 2100. This view greatly exceeded the normal 2030 analysis and thus required a a major study of available resource. The Agency's release reveals that it had settled on an OIIP figure of 20.6-Tb from recognized estimates ranging from 14 to 24-Tb. Applying an avg 50% Recovery factor is fundamental to its new 10.3-Tb URR.  The recent pricing regime continues to fuel favourable economics of previously thought fringe contingent resources.

EIA foresees 4.9-Tb of available resource consumption by 2100. This compares with recent estimates of 3.6-TB to 2070 by CERA & 3.6-Tb to 2100 by the Hutter Outlook.  The 24-model TrendLines Scenarios Avg calculates 3.3-Tb of URR will be consumed by 2100.

At 5.7-Tb, our Hutter Estimate is slightly reduced due to another downward revision of kerogen.  As the 4th highest of the group, its Production Profile illustrates the complexity of flows within category-based URR.

Note a major change to the MK Hubbert 1974 estimate, reflecting his All Liquids URR of 3070-Gb.

See our Footnotes below for some background & methodology.

See our Scenarios venue to view complementary revisions to the Supply Outlooks.

Highlights:

a)  TrendLines AVG URR:  3719-Gb (has doubled since 1992)

b)  TrendLines AVG URR less Past Consumption of 1129-Gb (as of 2007/11/30): 2590-Gb of Remaining Reserves & Resource (has doubled since 1999)

On this last point:  it is noteworthy that while Resources in general have doubled since 1992; and both BP & OGJ report that global Reserves have doubled since 1983, but when OPEC nations report exactly the same 1983 to 2007 statistic, they are considered "lying bastards". .. hmmm.  (Note to self:  reserve growth only happens in non Mideast nations)

Dec 27, 2007 - Today's version update of our URR Estimates Chart introduces figures from the research effort associated with our own Freddy Hutter's Scenario 2500 & an update to the Saudi Aramco Estimate.

At 5933-Gb, our Hutter Estimate is the 3rd highest of the group.  As seen in the Production Profile, its URR is category-based rather than by nation.  It predicts that the exhaustion of Conventional Oil will leave little other types in its wake save for Kerogen.

Clarifications by Saudi Aramco officials pares down their earlier liberal estimate to 7.1-Tb ... and still numero uno of the contributors.

In solidarity with the effort under way to purge old and lacking efforts from the Scenarios Presentation, the same is being done to the URR study.  In that regard, the first victim is the OPEC Estimate.  It has been said many times that theirs seems to be more of a political venture than a geology exercise; often just an adoption of other studies and thus leading to double counts.  It has been deleted from the AVG.  OTOH, the OPEC Production Outlook is quite a comprehensive study and remains in our Scenarios Presentation.

Similarly, while the EWG/LBST Production Outlook was found wanting, its authors seemingly have done much research in the URR domain and though we have dropped the Outlook, its URR Estimate remains appreciated here.

See our Footnotes below for some background & methodology.

See our Scenarios venue to view complementary revisions to the Supply Outlooks for EWG & Saudi Aramco.

Highlights:

a)  TrendLines AVG URR:  3627-Gb (has doubled since 1992)

b)  TrendLines AVG URR less Past Consumption of 1127-Gb (as of 2007/9/30): 2500-Gb of Remaining Reserves & Resource (has doubled since 1999)

On this last point:  it is noteworthy that while Resources in general have doubled since 1992; and both BP & OGJ report that global Reserves have doubled since 1983, but when OPEC nations report exactly the same 1983 to 2007 statistic, they are considered "lying bastards". .. hmmm.  (Note to self:  reserve growth only happens in non Mideast nations)

Nov 2, 2007 - Today's version update of our URR Estimates Chart introduces figures from the Energy Watch Group of Germany & Sadad Ibrahim Al Husseini of Saudi Arabia & revises data from Saudi Aramco.

The EWG Estimate is a collaborative effort with Ludwig-Bölkow-Systemtechnik. Its 1956-Gb tally is the lowest of our 22 URR Estimates.

At 5102-Gb, retired Saudi Aramco EVP Sadad Ibrahim Al Husseini's is 4th highest with its inclusion of major Kerogen (shale resource). His perspective is appreciated and his 336-Gb estimate of giant fields URR for Saudi Arabia crystallizes the Middle East prospects.

A major revision of their Kerogen resource is background to Saudi Aramco's new estimate of 7752-Gb ... and the first to break the 7-Tb threshold for URR!

 In viewing the inset Growth Rate Chart, note the dramatic increase of the 21-Estimates URR AVG annual growth after 1996!

See our Footnotes below for some background & methodology.

See our Scenarios venue to view complementary revisions to the Supply Outlooks for EWG & Saudi Aramco.

Highlights:

a)  TrendLines AVG URR:  3536-Gb (has doubled since 1991)

b)  TrendLines AVG URR less Past Consumption of 1125-Gb (as of 2007/9/30): 2411-Gb of Remaining Reserves & Resource (has doubled since 1996)

On this last point:  it is noteworthy that while Resources in general have doubled since 1996; and both BP & OGJ report that global Reserves have doubled since 1983, when OPEC nations report exactly the same 1983 to 2007 statistic, they are considered "lying bastards". .. hmmm.  (Note to self:  reserve growth only happens in non Mideast nations)

Oct 14th, 2007 - Today's version update of our URR Estimates Chart introduces the World Energy Council's 2007 Survey of Energy Resources & revises data from ASPO-IE.

The WEC URR Estimate is a collaborative effort with its members particularly BGR of Germany. We find it significant in its recognition that shale oil extraction has begun and will become an increasingly larger component of non-conventional oil liquids. In that regard, this study becomes the first of our compilation of recognized URR Estimates to break the 6-Tb (6078-Gb) threshold.

On the contrary, Colin Campbell of ASPO Ireland has reversed almost all his earlier 2007 revisions with a 100-Gb reduction in his current URR Estimate.

In viewing the inset Growth Rate Chart, note the dramatic increase of the 20-Estimates URR AVG annual growth after 1996!

See our Footnotes below for some background & methodology.

See our Scenarios venue to view complementary revisions to the Supply Outlooks for WEC & ASPO-IE.

Highlights:

a)  TrendLines AVG URR:  3392-Gb (has doubled since 1987)

b)  TrendLines AVG URR less Past Consumption of 1120-Gb (as of 2007/7/31): 2272-Gb of Remaining Reserves & Resource (has doubled since 1996)

Aug 7th, 2007 - Today's version update of our URR Estimates Chart amends data from OPEC & ASPO-Ireland.

OPEC broke with tradition early this Summer  and has acknowledged for the first time major non-OPEC resources in its annual URR Estimate.  This increases OPEC's figure by 53%.

Colin Campbell of ASPO Ireland has yet again reported an increase of his URR Estimate.  Campbell reduced his Estimate from 2700-Gb down to 2400-Gb during 2004.  Over the last 16 months, he has steadily reinstated most of those resources.  With this month's announcement, ASPO-IE estimates global URR to be 2600-Gb.

Looking at the inset Growth Rate Chart, note the dramatic increase of the 19-Estimates URR AVG annual growth rate after 1996!

See our Footnotes below for background & methodology.

See our Scenarios venue to view complementary revisions to the Supply Outlooks of OPEC & ASPO-IE.

June 15th, 2007 - This version update of our URR Estimates Chart amends data from Saudi Aramco, IEA, ASPO, BP & OGJ. 

Saudi Aramco's 5815-Gb reigns as the globe's highest estimate of Oil URR.  The inherent price sensitivity of the IEA model reflects recent upward movement.  Also illustrated is this week's BP announcement of its 2007 URR Estimate of 2487-Gb (1208-Gb plus 164 Cndn tar sands + Consumption to May 2007 of 1115-Gb).  ASPO & OGJ have reported increased URR as well.

Today's chart includes a new Annual Consumption line & the 3-Yr moving avg of annual growth of the URR AVG.  These replace the 3-Yr Cumulative Increase & Net Annual Increase lines.  See our Footnotes below for background & methodology.

Highlights:

a)  TrendLines AVG URR:  3325-Gb & has doubled since 1987.

b)  TrendLines AVG URR less Past Consumption of 1115-Gb (as of 2007/5/31):  2210-Gb (Remaining Reserves & Resource) & has doubled since 1992.

June 2007 Feature - Growth of URR Estimates vs Annual Consumption

June 12th, 2007 - In this première of a new TrendLines chart, we drill the data of our URR Estimates graph in an effort to illustrate the Annual Growth of URR vs Annual Consumption.  In that respect, it is evident that rising crude prices, new technologies & aggressive exploration have combined to bring us to the unprecedented situation wherein the current Estimates of Oil URR are growing at over five times the rate of Annual Consumption.

The USGS World Petroleum Assessment 2000 had projected a 54-Gb/Yr increase of URR from 1995 to 2025.  Around the globe, skeptics have been stymied with the revelation that in reality, URR growth is indeed triple that metric ... no doubt fuelled by the recent price band of $30-$60.

Past Consumption (presently 31-Gb/Yr) is shown by the  coral  line, while the smoothed 3-yr moving AVG of the 19 recognized URR Estimates is in  blue .

The TrendLines URR AVG grew at a rate of 2.3% (30-Gb/Yr) from 1957 to 1994 and a startling 4.3% (107-Gb/Yr) from 1995 to Today.  Looking only at the past year, the URR AVG is growing at an astonishing rate of 165-Gb/Yr.

The OGJ URR Estimate is shown in  grey  and like the others awaits a 2007 entry.  For comparison sake, the URR AVG's most renowned component, the BP URR Estimate, is shown in  green .  Using its 3-yr Avg, it is seen that Annual Growth of BP's URR Estimate has never been breached by Annual Oil Consumption since its 1964 inception.  Similarly, the Annual Growth of TrendLines composite URR smoothed average has exceeded Annual Consumption since 1997. 

With BP's Estimate of annual growth of URR being consistently higher than Consumption, it becomes more understandable how BP's Reserves/Production Ratio can remain constant at approx "40 years".

BP's 2007 URR Estimate is presently 2487-Gb (1208-Gb plus 164 Cndn tar sands Reserve Estimate + Consumption to May 2007 of 1115-Gb) but few have realized that it is actually growing by at least 31-Gb per year.  Even while BP may leave its Reserve Estimate at 1208-Gb in its next Annual Stat Review, its URR Estimate will have grown to 2518-Gb simply due to another 52 weeks of Extraction (31-Gb) applied to the Consumption column of its Ledger.  URR Estimates have been silently growing and this phenomenon of Accumulated Past Consumption has been lost on many Peak Oil watchers.

Continuing with this BP example, those narrowly focused on the Reserve Estimate component only, do not seem to be cognizant that BP's URR Estimate has mushroomed over time from the 1776-Gb announced in 1995 to the 2474-Gb as of Dec 2006:  that's 58-Gb/Yr ... including the two components of Reserve Estimate & Past Consumption!!

In the same period, BP's Reserve Estimate portion of its URR Estimate rose from 1014-Gb to 1372-Gb (30-Gb/Yr).  Meanwhile, ASPO & a cornucopia of "Peak Oil is upon us" proponents foster what seem to be misleading graphs representing that Discoveries thru the past decade are only 30% of Consumption.  Such cherry-picked data clearly insinuates to audiences that "the well is running dry".  These studies are fraudulent, prone to error and frankly outrageous.  Their authors fail to reconcile how BP's Reserve Estimate, instead of falling by 31-Gb/Yr (less those insignificant Discoveries), are indeed rising in magnitude by 30-Gb/Yr.

BP's 58-Gb/Yr of URR Growth since 1995, demonstrated above, is comprised of 29-Gb/yr of avg Past Consumption and 29-Gb/yr of growing Estimate of Reserves.  Further, while this 58-Gb/yr is made up of New Discoveries & Estimated Reserve Growth over the past year twelve months, it is only the New Discoveries that gets wide reporting in the mass media or trade journals.  Annual Reserve Growth is mostly hidden by attribution via Backdated Discoveries; under the premise that original measurements of field volume were faulty.  In actual fact, much of this Reserve Growth is a reflection of moving Contingent Resources to the 3P, 2P or 1P Reserve columns of the ledger, due to higher pricing making previous thought uneconomic fields; uneconomic non-conventional oils or uneconomic extraction methods "economically feasible".

The Peakster charts only show the New Discoveries logged.  They do not highlight the Backdated Discoveries within.  Gloom Merchants in untold numbers are guilty of an act of omission ... failing to acknowledge Annual Reserve Growth; perhaps due to ignorance.  But none-the-less, they have been allowed to pervade the mainstream media with their noxious message.

The rally cry for Peak Oil has been with us since 1956.  Fifty plus years.  We are today witnessing URR growth of a magnitude that exceeds three to five times annual consumption of Oil, yet "the sky is falling" rhetoric is louder than ever...

Efforts of illumination and perspective at TrendLines are in the hope that common sense will prevail.

Footnote - URR (as classified by the SPE) includes:

  (a)  Discoveries, Reserve Growth & Resource Growth (1P/2P/3P);

  (b)  Contingent Resources (discovered and potentially economic);

  (c)  Prospective Resources (undiscovered economic);

  (d)  Past Consumption (1115-Gb to May 2007)

Jan 31st, 2007 - TrendLines is pleased to Update our recently introduced Peak Oil URR Estimates presentation above.  With this version we have added Saudi Aramco as our 19th Model with its 4.5-Tb URR Estimate.  A 4-Year Cumulative Increase line replaces the previous 3-Yr & 5-Yr lines.

Highlights:

a)  TrendLines AVG URR:  3087-Gb

b)  TrendLines AVG URR less Past Consumption of 1104-Gb (as of 2007/1/31):  1983-Gb (Remaining Reserves & Resource)

We've compiled our tracking of 19 recognized Ultimate Recoverable Resource (URR) estimates to build a composite TrendLines Average of URR Estimates (URR AVG).  URR is a component of the global Oil-Initially-in-Place (OIIP) endowment which has its own set of estimates running from IEA's 7-Tb to ExxonMobil's 15-Tb.  For purposes of clarity & perspective, this presentation illustrates the last 50 years of our Century of accumulated data.  By deducting Past Consumption (PC) from the URR AVG, it can be seen that the Net Remaining or Future Resource (FR) rises slowly from 1957, remains fairly stable until 1991, from where it commences a steady climb to today's 1.983-Tb level.  The TrendLines URR AVG is 3.087-Tb.  Past Resource totals 1.102-Tb at year-end 2006.

Notably not showing are any appreciable decreases in Future Resource.  While the baseline allows viewing of up to 500-Gb of lost URR from the annual change line, neither it nor the new accumulated 4-yr change line sink significantly below the x-axis over the 50 year timeline.  With annual consumption of 7 to 31-Gb, it would be expected to see Future Resource decline each year by any amount not offset by annual discoveries or reserve growth.  But it rarely occurs.  In fact, Future Resource has doubled since 1996.  URR has doubled since 1991.

Instead, we see the phenom of Resource Growth (Discoveries + Reserve Growth) take both URR & Future Resource to progressively new heights.  Reserve Growth includes:

  a)  net recalculations of previous resource volumes by field or region;

  b)  Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) via technological advances;

  c)  lucrative re-assessments of Resource due to greater economic feasibility caused by higher pricing.

Resource Growth has resulted in AVG URR Growth of 2.9% or 47-Gb/Yr since 1957 and an accelerated 6% or 148-Gb/Yr since Y2K in this new era of rapid price escalation.  This presentation will be updated regularly.  Already in 2007 we see new estimates for ASPO & adjustment of the price-sensitive URR model of IEA.  The latter is reduced reflecting softer crude oil prices in January.

Footnotes:

a)  The Legend order reflects highest to lowest Estimates.

b)  Presentation updates include amendments to pre 2007 data.  

c)  The data from each Estimate has not been adjusted except to add "Past Consumption" when not provided.  While meant to include "All Liquids Oil", some Estimates do not include NGL's, Processing Gains, Non-conventional or Synthetic Oils and thus the actual URR AVG is somewhat higher than shown.

d)  URR reflects (a) the "3P" definition of Resource including proven, probable & possible reserves; (b) plus Contingent Resource (economic & technical feasibility within Outlook timeframe); plus (c) Prospective Resource (yet undiscovered) ... as classified by the SPE and (d) Past Resource or consumption.  URR does not include the following components of Oil Originally in Place (OIIP):  (a) discovered & undiscovered unrecoverable;  (b) discovered & undiscovered uneconomic;

e)  Amended Status as of Jan 1st 2007:   URR AVG - 3099-Gb  ~  Past Consumption - 1102-Gb  ~  URR Less Past - 1997-Gb

December 2006 Feature - Première of TrendLines Research URR Estimates

Dec 16th, 2006 - TrendLines is pleased to première our new Peak Oil URR Estimates presentation (above).  We've compiled our tracking of 18 recognized Ultimate Recoverable Resource (URR) estimates to build a composite TrendLines Average of URR Estimates (URR AVG).  URR is a component of Oil-Initially-in-Place (OIIP) endowment which has its own set of estimates running from IEA's 7-Tb to ExxonMobil's 15-Tb.  For a balance of clarity & perspective, this presentation illustrates the last 50 years of our Century of data.  By deducting Past Resource (PR) or Past Consumption from the URR AVG, it can be seen that the Net Remaining or Future Resource (FR) rises slowly from 1957 then remains fairly stable until 1984 when it commences a steady climb to today's 1.934-Tb level.  The TrendLines URR AVG is 3.008-Tb.  Past Resource totals 1.074-Tb at year-end 2006.

Notably not showing are any appreciable decreases in Future Resource.  While the baseline allows viewing of up to 500-Gb of lost URR from the annual change line, neither it nor the 3-yr or 5-yr change lines sink significantly below the x-axis over the 50 year timeline.  With annual consumption of 7 to 31-Gb, it would be expected to see Future Resource decline each year by any amount not offset by annual discoveries.  But it rarely occurs.  In fact, Future Resource has doubled since 1993.

Instead, we see the phenom of Resource Growth (Discoveries + Reserve Growth) take both URR & Future Resource to progressively new heights.  Reserve Growth includes net recalculations of previous resource volumes by field or region;  Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) via technological advances;  & lucrative re-assessments of Resource due to greater economic feasibility caused by higher pricing.  Resource Growth has resulted in AVG URR Growth of 3.3% or 43-Gb/Yr since 1957 and an accelerated 7% or 169-Gb/Yr since Y2K in this new era of rapid price escalation.  This presentation will be updated regularly.

Footnotes:

a)  The Legend order reflects highest to lowest Estimates.

b)  The data from each Estimate has not been adjusted except to add "Past Resource or Consumption" when not provided.  While meant to include "All Liquids Oil", some Estimates do not include NGL's, Processing Gains, Non-conventional or synthetic Oils and thus the actual URR AVG is somewhat higher than shown.

c)  URR reflects (a) the "3P" definition of Resource including proven, probable & possible reserves; (b) plus Contingent Resource (economic & technical feasibility within Outlook timeframe); plus (c) Prospective Resource (yet undiscovered) ... as classified by the SPE and (d) Past Consumption.  URR does not include the following components of Oil Initially in Place (OIIP):  (a) discovered & undiscovered unrecoverable;  (b) discovered & undiscovered uneconomic (aka sub-commercial Contingent Resource;

Back to Current URR Estimates & Features

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